While there continues to be high uncertainty about the rate of spread and timing of the peak of the 2019 new coronavirus (Covid-19), modeling by academics with expertise in epidemiology indicates a likely range for the peak between late February and June. However, for the purpose of assessing the economic and credit implications of the outbreak, we assume the outbreak will be contained in March, consistent with our recent report “Coronavirus To Inflict A Large, Temporary Blow To China’s Economy,” published Feb. 7, 2020. As the situation evolves, we will update our assumptions and estimates accordingly.
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