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A Conversation on China's Growth-Leverage Dilemma

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A Conversation on China's Growth-Leverage Dilemma

Nov. 26 2018 — Caution is the watch word in China. Banks are more reluctant to lend, home sales are slowing,and companies are frettingabout funding costs and availability. Substantial corrections in stock and bond prices indicate more trouble ahead, yet top line consensus growth figures continue to point to a gradual GDP deceleration. So what are the risks to an orderly scenario?

Senior analysts and economists in Asia-Pacific have been discussing the likely scope and direction of policy easing amid flagging confidence; and transmission issues on stimulating private-sector activity. Our conversation also touched on whether deleveraging goals will be sidelined as authorities seek to guide for gradually declining growth. We also bring other voices into the dialogue, based on our many interactions with investors, issuers, bankers, and China watchers around the globe.

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