<rss xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0">
<channel><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/private-markets-360/private-markets-360-episode-46-nav-finance-demystified-how-strategic-capital-is-shaping-private-equity</link><description>In this episode of Private Markets 360Â°, we welcome Dane Graham, Partner at 17Capital. With nearly 25 years of finance experience, including senior roles at RBC Capital Markets and Citigroup, heâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99;s followed the NAV market since its early days as it evolved from a niche solution into a core private markets tool. Dane discusses how strategic financing has matured alongside private equity, the misconceptions investors still face, and how flexible, well-aligned capital can support liquidity needs,</description><title>Private Markets 360 | Episode 46: NAV Finance Demystified: How Strategic Capital is Shaping Private Equity</title><pubDate>30 June 2026 04:00:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Chris Sparenberg</name><name>Christina Christina</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Podcast â 30 June, 2026 Private Markets 360Â° | Episode 46: NAV Finance Demystified: How Strategic Capital is Shaping Private Equity By Chris Sparenberg and Christina Christina In this episode of Private Markets 360Â°, we welcome Dane Graham, Partner at 17Capital. With nearly 25 years of finance experience, including senior roles at RBC Capital Markets and Citigroup, heâs followed the NAV market since its early days as it evolved from a niche solution into a core private markets tool. Dane discusses how strategic financing has matured alongside private equity, the misconceptions investors still face, and how flexible, well-aligned capital can support liquidity needs, portfolio optimization, and long-term value creation in a changing landscape. More S&amp;P Global Content: S&amp;P Global, Cambridge Associates, Mercer Private Markets Performance Analytics Credits: Host/Author: Chris Sparenberg and Christina McNamara Guests: Dane Graham, 17Capital Producer: Georgina Lee Published With Assistance From: Feranmi Adeoshun, Kimberly Olvany View Full Transcript Chris Sparenberg [00:00:00]: Welcome to Private Markets360, your insider's guide to private investments. Today we're joined by Dane Graham, partner at Seventeen Capital, a firm widely recognized as a pioneer and global leader in strategic financing solutions for private equity investors. Dane joined the firm roughly four years ago and plays a key role in sourcing, underwriting and executing these strategic transactions from the firm's New York Office. With nearly 25 years of experience in finance and more than 20 years across asset management and financial advisory, including senior roles at RBC Capital Markets and Citigroup and early experience with Exxon Mobil and about four years at 17 Capital, Dane has followed the NAV finance market since its earliest days, watching it evolve from a niche solution into a core part of the private markets toolkit. At 17Capital, he operates at the intersection of value creation, liquidity management and long term strategic partnerships, including the firm's relationships with Oaktree and Brookfield. We're excited to explore his perspective on the market's evolution and what's next for private equity investors navigating an increasingly complex landscape. Dane, welcome to Private Markets360. It's great to have you with us today. Chris Sparenberg [00:01:14]: How are you? Dane Graham [00:01:15]: Thanks Chris, I'm well and I appreciate you asking and having me on Private Markets360 today. Really look forward to the conversation. Christina McNamara [00:01:23]: Dane, welcome to the show. 17Capital is often described as the original architect of NAV finance and preferred equity in private markets. For listeners who may know the terms but not know the history, how do you describe what 17Capital does and why it exists today? Dane Graham [00:01:43]: Sure, I think simply put, 17Capital was built to solve a structural gap in the private market markets. At the time of the founding of the firm, those holding high quality private assets had few alternatives to generate proceeds off of those assets either for further investment or for liquidity, other than to sell, take a discount and forego the upside. So the idea was if a prospective borrower, either a gp, a fund or an lp, had a diversified pool of strong performing buyout assets overseen by a high quality institutionalized manager or managers, then 17 Capital could design an appropriate fit for purpose solution to provide them capital at very measured risk levels. And so the focus has been on strategic financing for performing portfolios, not rescue capital, primarily capital to invest more in the same or similar assets and take advantage of opportunities to further compound value. Today we execute those types of transactions across senior secured loans, unsecured loans and preferred equity structures across the developed markets of North America and Europe. Chris Sparenberg [00:02:56]: That's great background you've been with 17 Capital for about four years now. Can you tell us what attracted you to the firm specifically and why the timing was important? Dane Graham [00:03:05]: Yeah, the market was moving from niche to mainstream and I had conviction from similar work in early days at Citigroup with alternative asset managers and believed in the market for a long time. And 17 Capital's reputation as really the OG in the space was a. Which is a term I picked up from my son. And their disciplined track record made them an obvious choice really a firm that's almost the definition of an og with about a decade history operating in the nav finance space before really the next competitor entered the market. So quite a unique position that you don't typically see in this business or in this overall marketplace. But I would say overall it ultimately became the people. As with many human capital businesses, that is generally the key ingredient. And the team at 17 Capital is very oriented around a team based approach, a culture of making decisions, leveraging the collective experience of the team versus an individualized approach or that is either sold or forced onto the team. Dane Graham [00:04:14]: And we remain small enough to be very nimble and able to move quickly on that team based decision making process. But by far the largest dedicated team that all weigh into and have vast experiences that color and shape the way that we approach the market in net finance. Christina McNamara [00:04:32]: Now you've spent nearly two decades advising asset managers at Citi and rbc, two of the world's largest global banks. So you had a front row seat really to how asset managers navigate cycles, liquidity, shocks, regulatory shifts. How did that experience shape how you think about capital structures and risk today? Dane Graham [00:04:57]: Yeah, I did have the benefit of working at one of the first investment banking coverage groups that carved out a portion of the financial institution team to focus on the asset management industry and so fortunately had the opportunity to grow up with the institutionalization of the alternative asset management landscape and work on the first IPOs and take the first alternative asset manager through the ratings agency process, execute the first alternative asset management IPO deal, among other first. And so it was a great opportunity to really see deep into a large number of managers through both M&amp;A and capital markets and see that throughout the cycle that occurred and in particular through the GFC and really get to understand how these platforms are set up, what's unique about the platforms and what's unique about the alternative asset management landscape overall. And importantly, understanding the alignment, any incentives that exist within the GPS, the LPs for these platforms. I also had the opportunity to highlight to me how the capital markets are really set up well to serve these platforms in certain areas of their ecosystem, but not all. And so those early days shined a little bit of a light on the opportunity that NAV finance would have with within these ecosystems. That is just really underserved and it's really filling that gap Today. Chris [00:06:24]: Another dynamic at play here is made the shift from being an advisor to an investor. Can you tell us what changed most in how you approached these decisions once it became your capital at risk? Dane Graham [00:06:37]: Yeah, Chris, I would make an important distinction that our founder would say, it's not our capital, it's our limited partner's capital. And that is the mindset that we approach the market with. But the largest difference between those two roles is the incentive structure, an advisory role. The incentive structure is to get things done. You're rewarded for closing a deal, whereas as a principal, you own the outcome. And you are rewarded really once the outcome is achieved years later, and only if it's positive. So. But if you want your role as an advisor to be long standing and valued over time, you need to be thinking similarly about which deals make sense, what the underlying risks are involved, et cetera, et cetera. Dane Graham [00:07:18]: But ultimately you don't own it after the deal is signed. So as a principal, there's that extra focus on governance, documentation, monitoring, thinking in terms of durability, not just outcomes. Christina McNamara [00:07:32]: Before your time advising asset managers, you actually started your career at one of the world's largest operating companies, ExxonMobil. Does that operating mindset influence how you evaluate private equity portfolios today? Dane Graham [00:07:49]: Yeah, Christina, I'd say I spent a lot of time in another operating business as well, a dairy farm, growing up, and then ExxonMobil. And I think what they've taught me is the importance of risk and risk management. I've always been around risk as a function of those organizations. Growing up on a farm, When I was very young, I once took a shortcut through the barnyard to avoid walking through the rain. And I got roughed up by an unhappy heifer and learned quickly that shortcuts have material risk to them, you know, so you always, you kind of always need to do the work at exit on the organization. As a large operating organization is very focused on risks and really to the point where the first page of every monthly and quarterly performance report was incidents, not earnings, not revenue. And I'm sure it's the same today. It was really about incidents. Dane Graham [00:08:42]: So it was a focus on control. What you control can control, but always have a deep understanding of what you can't control and how it costs, how it can cost you and what the risks are. So both have led me to think longer term and stay focused on repeatable processes while being able to adapt as well. Chris [00:09:02]: Let's talk about 17 Capital as the OG, a pioneer in the market. The firm was active in that financing long before that became mainstream. Can you take us through a little bit of the history? What did the market look like when the firm first started and how has that evolved? Dane Graham [00:09:18]: Yeah, like what does a market look like before it is a market? Kind of. You're actually creating it at the start. So that what that meant was really largely translating an idea based on a deep understanding of the private equity ecosystem and what's there and what's lacking and really trying to turn that idea into action and ultimately a market. So there was a very, really very limited awareness of the product. There was a significant amount of education that needed to occur, which was a significant amount of the time of the folks at 17Capital spending both with GPs and LPs to really explain what NAV finance is and how it can be used and how it can be applied to create more value and ultimately kind of driving the proliferation of use cases that exist today. Transactions were very bespoke, very highly structured and really a strong emphasis on trust and long term relationships and alignment within the market and within each individual deal. Christina McNamara [00:10:18]: If you zoom out a little bit, the private market landscape today looks very different from what it did when you first entered capital. Is more global access points for investors have multiplied. So as you fast forward to today, I'm curious what's changed the most in your view? The sheer demand for private markets, exposure, the sophistication and expectation of buyers or the actual products themselves? Dane Graham [00:10:46]: Yeah, all three have changed and evolved as you highlight. And with respect to NAV finance in the broader private equity equity market, a demands or adoption has been the biggest change though and has accelerated the most. There are points in the market where borrowers have been forced to explore alternative forms of finance such as during COVID and that has kind of helped accelerate the awareness and ultimately adoption. And then really once utilized, the value creation is quite clear. And so it becomes used again in other areas of the manager's ecosystem, either on another fund or at the management company or vice versa. So there. So what's driving that market? The biggest change is adoption. And that adoption is coming from not only new borrowers entering the market, but also repeat users that have already adopted, that are proliferating the use of NAV throughout their platforms. Dane Graham [00:11:43]: And gps are now acting more proactive versus reactive. I think it used to Be that no one ever called us for a transaction. We would typically have to always be calling on GPS and hearing and seeing what's happening within their ecosystem and then proposing ideas to help them capitalize on those opportunities. Now the market's grown and adopted to the point where they're aware and we do, they do call us, we do receive inbounds. And so the market's come a long way over that last 18 years with that market. Chris [00:12:14]: Evolution has also become maybe the discovery of this opportunity and a change in the competitive landscape. Some might even say the market's getting a lot more crowded. Against that backdrop, how does 17Capital maintain its leadership position? Dane Graham [00:12:30]: Yeah, Chris, we really benefit from a first mover advantage. And I alluded to it as why I joined 17 Capital. It's very unique to be operating in the market for 10 years before really before you see your first competitor. And so having executed 125 transactions, fully exited half of those. We really have unparalleled experience. And borrowers in the market want to work with an organization that has seen it all, that can provide guidance and insights into considerations before they become aware or apparent to the borrower. Ultimately, this is a financing that is opportunistic and is largely to capture value. So borrowers are looking for size, speed and certainty. Dane Graham [00:13:13]: And those factors really come from experience, not from doing it once or twice. On top of that, it's maintaining the relationship approach, the solutions oriented approach in this market and being very transparent on what you can and are able to do and what fits your capital solutions and what doesn't. Christina McNamara [00:13:31]: You've mentioned earlier that 17 Capital really has two core products within NAV, GP Solutions and NAV Loans. Can you walk us through the differences between the two and when each makes sense? Dane Graham [00:13:46]: Yeah, sure. We do provide two main product solutions, if you will, for, for LPs to invest in. And they're really divided between the borrower type. And so we, we think of them all as NAB because that ultimately is the underlying exposure or the vast majority of the underlying exposure that we're underwriting. Those diversified portfolios of private equity buyout exposure. But the two different products, the non dilutive GP solutions is really for the GP or LP as borrower. It's flexible fit for purpose capital used by the GP or partners of the GP to continue to invest more capital behind their business and their own funds, helping them further align themselves with their LPs and drive further growth of the GP at the same time. And so we work with GPS in that manner. Dane Graham [00:14:41]: We also work with LPs who think similarly to GPS, who have meaningful exposure to the buyout asset class and are seeking to invest further behind strong portfolios or behind their favorite managers. And then we provide a what we call credit, which is the market would refer to as NAV loans, which is generally two primary private equity funds with the purpose to facilitate additional value capture in a non dilutive way, typically through portfolio company M and A and sometimes capital structure optimization, or to facilitate better overall fund management by getting the fund more fully invested, improving fee ratios as well as adding to the nominal return for LPs. Christina McNamara [00:15:28]: There still seems to be a misconception that NAV finance is only for distressed solutions. How do you push back on that narrative? Dane Graham [00:15:37]: Yeah, I actually think this misconception is fading pretty fast and maybe that's wishful thinking. But I think as the market continues to adopt it sees more transactions that it be it's becoming very clear to all of those that are utilizing and ultimately seeing it utilized that it's really a tool that's for high quality performing portfolios and for truly institutionalized managers. It's not for distress. It's primarily designed and used to accelerate growth and capture additional value where one of the main feedstocks for accelerating that growth and capturing that value is flexible capital. And again, as the market adopts you can the use cases become much more visible and as the earlier transaction season the value creation is pretty clear in these transactions. So I think as a function of adoption we are seeing the evidence that truly is a misconception and that the tool is really built for. It's built for driving value where there's already been quality performing portfolios that can compound that value over time. Chris [00:16:46]: Let's talk about the strategic partnership between 17 Capital and Oaktree in Brookfield. Those firms own roughly 50% of the business. Can you take us through how this relationship works in practice? Dane Graham [00:16:59]: Yeah, Chris. We do have a relationship with the Oaktree Brookfield organization. And it's now been four years since we've created that partnership. And part of the idea of it was to further enhance the 17 Capital brand in the US amongst borrowers, ultimately validate the underwriting process. 17 Capital with the rubber stamp, if you will, from an organization like Oaktree who's made its history within the credit markets and obviously very well known for cred. But the idea of the partnership was to be fully autonomous and continue to operate independently at 17 Capital. So no change to the the investment philosophy, no change to the investment process, no change to the ic but ultimately benefit from the resources of a much broader organization that include underwriting capability, that includes size and scale among a number of other factors. And so it's really one of those unique relationships with a high level of support and network and resources, but without interference. Dane Graham [00:18:06]: And that was the idea of striking the relationship with Oaktree. And it's been quite a good partnership so far. Christina McNamara [00:18:13]: Let's talk about operational autonomy a little bit more. Why is it so important, particularly in a specialized market like this? Dane Graham [00:18:22]: Yeah, the autonomy allows us to continue to move quickly and independently, which is necessary for this market. As I mentioned, the use cases here are typically strategic and so speed and certainty are really paramount to the borrower. It was important to preserve the culture and the underwriting approach, discipline. It's been an 18 year history now of executing. We're really developing the market and executing the way that we have approached it as an organization. And maintaining that was really critical to us and ultimately to our LPs and our borrowers. It's to maintain the GP trust. The, the information stays, you know, with 17Capital, it's not shared more broadly, there are walls in place that protect that. Dane Graham [00:19:08]: And it's to avoid conflICts of interest. All we do is NAF finance. We don't do anything else. The broader organization has many other solutions, but we think our sole focus on NAF finance is quite unique, especially at our scale. And it is completely void of conflICts of lending at the portfolio company level or other solutions that could present conflICts of interest. Chris [00:19:34]: That is critically important. If we shift gears a little bit and talk about the current market environment, the trends that we're seeing now across private markets. Can you share your thoughts on some of the macro trends that are driving record demand for NAV finance today and any other observations you have from the market dynamic as it currently exists? Dane Graham [00:19:55]: Yeah, we do see some things from the current and recent market that has helped accelerate use cases for NAV finance. I think going back a couple years, the spike in rates. Yeah. Drove some. A little bit of a freeze in markets overall with some uncertainty of where that was ultimately going to land. What does it mean for performance, valuation, defaults, other items? And so we've had as a result, a bit of a slower exit environment for an extended period of time within private equity. And private equity managers, if they're holding their assets, waiting for a more opportune time to exit, they can't just sit on their hands. They need to continue to drive value creation within those portfolios. Dane Graham [00:20:41]: And one of the feedstocks for that value creation is capital. And so now finance can be can provide that. It can help them continue to grow their portfolios and drive that value and ultimately look for a more opportune time to exit. So that is definitely driving use cases at both the fund level to continue to grow those portfolios as well as the manager level as they continue to grow as managers raised for capital but are not seeing the same liquidity themselves for their interest in their own portfolios to reinvest in the newer fund vintages. So there's use cases at multiple levels of the organization as a result. But it's the overall growth of NAV is less about the existing market environment. It's more about the size of the overall market, its growth and the adoption of NAV in particular across the market and just the need for more tools given the size of the market. So we see the buyout market at about 4 trillion of value that's expected to double in the next six or so seven years. Dane Graham [00:21:51]: And naffinance is just a small portion of that overall market. And our opportunity set has increased about 30% per year over the last five, six years fairly regularly. So we think the, the driver of the market is less the market environment, it's more the adoption. And a little bit of a proof case that was in 2021. We saw pretty substantial step up from, from the prior years and that's a result of higher deal activity in the market. Does present the opportunity to capture more value if you have the capital to be able to do it. So we think it's well suited for the overall market environment. Whatever we're facing over the last couple Christina McNamara [00:22:33]: of years the backdrop has shifted meaningfully. How are GPs thinking differently about capital solutions today than they were to give years ago? Dane Graham [00:22:47]: I think gps are continue to grow, platforms continue to grow, the market continues to grow. It kind of ties back into some of what I just shared that they need more tools to be able to better manage the overall portfolios as well as the GP. And I think there's been a number of tools in place and they're very, they've been very well worn at the portfolio company level and select tools at the GP level, but not as many tools at the fund level itself, which is what we're doing with the NAV loans and at the GP for in particular their balance sheets. And so we see gps being more strategic and planned around that, educating themselves on the new tools quite rapidly and then finding the appropriate time in place to, to begin to use them and adopt them. And the general premise of it is when and where it makes sense and to create value. And once they do that with a new tool, they tend to become repeat users of it. And so that's probably the biggest change with respect to how it applies to NAV and GP's thinking around capital solutions over time. I think one of the other larger items that is coming and is actively being thought through is generational transfer and as time passes, how gps are ultimately going to facilitate the rotation of the ownership of the GP from what was a founding generation ultimately to the folks that will be driving it going forward when the founding generation moves on. Dane Graham [00:24:21]: And that's something that is a large opportunity set ultimately for us and something that the market is actively thinking through and working on. Chris [00:24:28]: Do you think those factors will lead NAV financing to become or to be seen more as a permanent part of the private markets capital stack? Dane Graham [00:24:37]: Yeah, we have pretty high conviction around that. We see somewhat similar adoption curves as we saw to the subscription line market a decade ago and how once it began and folks really appreciated what was happening and how it was being used and why it was value creating very quickly adopted it across the market. We think the same is happening within NAV finance mainly because the fundamentals are there, the needs are ultimately there and the solution is built for exactly that. And so we expect that most gps will be users of NAV finance eventually and likely the early adopters will be at an advantage and will probably have captured additional value and have had provided better performance for themselves and for their LPs. And that itself will drive others to adopt as well. Christina McNamara [00:25:29]: If the last five years have taught us anything, it's that private markets can evolve quickly when capital conditions, regulation and investor expectations shift. So now, looking ahead five years from now, how do you expect this market to look any different? Do you see any structural changes or, or is the biggest shift in the buyer, in who the buyers are and what they demand from managers? Dane Graham [00:25:58]: Yeah, I think we're going to see, obviously our view is we're going to see a larger market. I think it's going to be more institutionalized market. With adoption continuing to accelerate. I think we'll probably see a little bit more of a uniform or standardized reporting with respect to NAV among the uses, specifically at the, at the fund level as more adopt. And I think there's probably going to be a clear segmentation of providers across the market given just given the overall size of the market and scale and where managers will be best suited to provide these types of solutions. And as we see new entrants into the market I think there's probably going to be a much more widely understood set of best practices that will exist across the marketplace. Chris [00:26:49]: So, Dane, as we see the market continuing to develop and as we're maybe anticipating some of these best practices to emerge, knowing that you've had so many of these conversations and 17Capital has been involved in this market going back to before it was an actual market, what is the advice you'd give to GPs who are considering NAV finance for the first time? What are the questions they should be asking upfront? Dane Graham [00:27:13]: I really think there are three questions that GP should ask themselves or three main questions GP should ask themselves when thinking about a NAV financing is one, what is the use case and what are the opportunities that exist that they can capture? Two is what does it really mean to be fit for purpose and in a NAV financing solution? And three is who do they want to work with? What type of lender do they want to work with? On the first one, it is really about are they, are they foregoing opportunities that could be captured and create a lot of value if they just had a different tool or they could move faster and more quickly with higher certainty? NAV provides that and it and it, it avoids having to bend other solutions into place to be able to capture those opportunities in terms of a fit for purpose there. It's a developing market and the idea of an NAV solution should be one that is designed so that the GP can continue to make the decisions around the portfolio that they deem appropriate, whatever the environment that they face, and that the outcome is ultimately within their control and that the NAV facility doesn't force inappropriate decisions on them at the wrong times. And so being fit for purpose and structured that way is an important question that they should ask themselves. Is the solution actually meeting that criteria? And it's an important one for their LPs and then I think it's who do they want to work with as a lender? And NAV is something that is relatively new. It's unlike other lending solutions like portfolio company leverage, which every lender has and every GP has done hundreds of it's typically solutions that folks are doing for the first time. And so working with parties that have the experience and have been through it and seen it all ultimately create that certainty of execution and also what type of conflicts might exist. So is the provider an LP? Does that yet create some level of misconnect versus other LPs within the portfolio or misalignment? Or are they already a lender to the portfolio and what type of conflicts exist there. So I think that's the other thing for them to keep in mind and ask themselves about whether or not those those conflicts are manageable. Christina McNamara [00:29:31]: For young professionals looking to build a career in this space, what skills or experiences matter the most and what advice would you give them? Dane Graham [00:29:41]: Yeah, we've got a number of them and we are generally looking for talented folks that have really a strong understanding of the private equity market. Ecosystem of private equity portfolios we'll understand companies from both a valuation and a credit perspective are creative thinkers because all of these transactions are bespoke and you're trying to design the best solution. Ultimately we look for folks with a team approach that like solving puzzles, if you will, together as a team as opposed to maybe more individually. But I'd also say kind of a key and very different from other types of lending is a bit of a resilient approach. You have to be willing to go out and create the solution and know that you may have a number of conversations, a number of great ideas that ultimately don't materialize, and you need to continue to go out and seek those opportunities. It's very different from expecting to review opportunities that come across your desk because the financing solution is by definition necessary and so it leans more to folks that are, I think, a little bit more ambitious in terms of going out and trying to create an opportunity themselves. Christina McNamara [00:31:03]: Thank you all for joining us for this episode of Private Markets360, where we had the pleasure of hearing Dane Graham's insights on the evolution of strategic financing in private markets. Dane's channel journey from advising global financial institutions to investing at one of the original pioneers of NAV finance offers a unique perspective on how capital solutions have matured into essential tools for long term value creation. We explored 17 Capital's role as an early architect of GP solutions and NAV loans, the misconceptions surrounding these strategies, and how thoughtful flexible capital can help GPS navigate liquidity growth and portfolio optimization in a shifting market environment. Dean also shared valuable perspectives on market Trends, alignment with LPs and what the next chapter of private markets may hold. If you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe to Private Markets360 and leave us a review. Join us next time as we continue to explore the world of private markets and bring you more insights from industry leaders. Until then, keep thinking critically and exploring the opportunities that lie ahead in private markets. ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/062426-concerns-linger-over-corsia-credit-demand-despite-passage-of-iran-us-ceasefire-agreement</link><description>Demand forâ&amp;#x80;¯Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviationâ&amp;#x80;¯credits from airlines may notâ&amp;#x80;¯immediatelyâ&amp;#x80;¯pick up following an agreement between Iran and the US to end the conflict in West Asia, as several challengesâ&amp;#x80;¯persist, developers and traders told Platts, part of S&amp;amp;P Global Energy, in the week of June 22. Despite the optimism associated with the announcement in the wider</description><title>Concerns linger over CORSIA credit demand despite passage of Iran-US ceasefire agreement</title><pubDate>24 June 2026 14:06:31 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Anirudh Iyer</name><name>Felix Njini</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Carbon, Emissions June 24, 2026 Concerns linger over CORSIA credit demand despite passage of Iran-US ceasefire agreement By Anirudh Iyer and Felix Njini Editor: Adithya Ram Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS CORSIA credit prices fall 37.5% since war Airlines delay purchases amid policy uncertainty EU eligibility rules slow European buyer activity Demand forâ¯Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviationâ¯credits from airlines may notâ¯immediatelyâ¯pick up following an agreement between Iran and the US to end the conflict in West Asia, as several challengesâ¯persist, developers and traders told Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, in the week of June 22. Despite the optimism associated with the announcement in the wider commodities markets, participants Platts spoke to said there were challenges with securing funds at lower rates, thin margins in the airline sector, andâ¯a lack of strict regulatoryâ¯directions,â¯which may not result in a sharp rise in interest from airlines for carbon credits. Immediately after the conflict escalatedâ¯in March,â¯energy prices shot up, nudging airlines toâ¯allocateâ¯fundsâ¯to ensure theyâ¯procuredâ¯jet fuel at competitive prices. The Platts-assessed CEC current year price has fallen by 37.5% since the start of the war in late February to date. Platts reported earlier that Iran and the US signed a memorandum of understanding to end the conflict and decided toâ¯subsequentlyâ¯engage in high-level negotiations to devise a plan within the nextâ¯ 60 days to permanentlyâ¯resolve the dispute. An Asia-based developer with carbon projects eligible to supply credits into the CORSIA market for the first phase said it thinks the agreement can result in an improvement in demand, but was not sure of the exact timelineâ¯for that. "Survival is the priority now for most of the participants, and even after the conclusion of the war, it may take at least another eight months for demand revivalâ¯in the larger carbon market," according to an India-based developer looking to set up a CORSIA project in Africa. Besides persistent weakness in demand from airlines stemming from various policy and geopolitical developments, new projects receiving eligibility to supply credits into Phase 1 of the scheme also weighed on prices. Currently, the following projects are eligible to supply credits into phase 1 of CORSIA CORSIA-eligible projects as of May 29 ID Project name Developer Project Type Standard Region Country 102 ART Trees Guyana JREDD+ ART Trees Americas Guyana 11677* Biomass Energy conservation programme Hestian Cookstove Gold Standard Africa Malawi 11732 Efficient and Clean Cooking for households in Tanzania BURN Cookstove Gold Standard Africa Tanzania 3699 DelAgua Clean Cooking Grouped Project in Rwanda DelAgua Cookstove Verra Africa Rwanda 4150 DelAgua Clean Cooking Grouped Project in Rwanda DelAgua Cookstove Verra Africa Rwanda 4000 DelAgua Clean Cooking Grouped Project in Gambia DelAgua Cookstove Verra Africa Gambia 3837 DelAgua Clean Cooking Grouped Project in Sierra Leone DelAgua Cookstove Verra Africa Sierra Leone 2924 Grouped Projects for Laos Improved Cookstove INTRACO Carbon Cookstove Verra Asia Laos 3204 Grouped Projects for Laos Water purifier INTRACO Carbon Water purfier Verra Asia Laos 11639 Spouts water purifier programme in Africa Spouts International Water purfier Gold Standard Africa Rwanda 10959* Safe Water Project In Rwanda Iceberg Environment Water purfier Gold Standard Africa Rwanda 3052 Grouped Project For Cambodia Water purfier INTRACO Carbon Water purfier Verra Asia Cambodia 2925 Grouped Projects for Cambodia Improved Cookstove INTRACO Carbon Cookstove Verra Asia Cambodia 2311, 2312, 2313, 2314, 2315, 2685, 2687, 2688, 2689, 2690, 2772, 2773, 2774, 2775, 2776, 2777, 2778, 2779, 2780, 2825, 2826, 2827 Madagascar Improved Cook Stove Project Korea Carbon Management Cookstove Verra Africa Madagascar 4531 Reducing Gas Leakages within the Hududgaz Gas Distribution Networks across Uzbekistan ECOEYE, GasGreen Asia, EcoCarbon Services Leak detection and repair (LDAR) Verra Asia Uzbekistan 2676 Community Carbon Efficient Cooking Programme UpEnergy Cookstove Verra Africa Tanzania Total available supply Disclaimer: 11677* refers to the POA ID.Project IDs encompass: 11902, 11903, 11904, 11905, 11906, 11907, 11908, 11909, 11910, 11911, 11912, 11913, 11914, 11915, 11916, 11917, 11918, 11919, 11920, 11921, 11922, 11923, 11924, 11925, 11926, 11927, 11928, 11929, 11930, 11931, 11932 Disclaimer: 10959* refers to the POA ID. Project IDs encompass: 11098, 11133,11134,11135,11136,11137 Airlines hold back from purchasing Participants Platts spoke toâ¯said the lukewarm buying interest from airlinesâ¯was a key reason for the decline in prices for CORSIA credits. The Platts-assessed CORSIA price for current year delivery was at $9.75/mtCO2e on June 23, down from $21.75/mtCO2e during the same time the previous year, Platts data showed. The June 24 assessments of Jet CIF northwest Europe cargo and Jet Kero FOB Singapore cargo increased by 11% and 18.8%, respectively, from around the time of the conflict, Platts data showed. An incremental rise in the rate of borrowing has also resulted inâ¯a generalâ¯slowdown in investments in carbon projects, thereby reducing demand from institutional buyers, a South Asia-based cookstove developer said. Market participants said airlinesâ¯making sporadic purchases forâ¯smaller volume CORSIA credits were more reflective of their efforts to test the market rather thanâ¯theirâ¯interest in being well-equipped to mitigate their emissions. Platts previously reported that Singapore Airlines retired 134,781 CORSIA phase 1 credits in April, while Shell retired 180,000 mt credits for Japan Airlines in March. "These deals can't be considered as firm demand from airlines since it is not a recurring purchase," a Japan-based trader said. Echoingâ¯a similar sentiment, an India-basedâ¯developer/trader said that sinceâ¯airlines were already a stressed sectorâ¯in terms of profit margins,â¯perhaps aâ¯"travel boom" following the peace agreement may nudge airlines to look at purchasing large volume credits. Possible fragmentation The introduction of an additional layer of quality checks by the EU has further contributed to the lull in the market as participants moved to the sidelines amid concerns over a further division in market operations. Earlier this year,â¯Platts reportedâ¯the EU was considering introducing stricter rules of eligibility forâ¯European airlines to procure CORSIA credits under Phase 1 and Phase 2 of the scheme. The proposal said the EU would exclude credits from projects using a fraction of non-renewable biomass values above the Clean Development Mechanism's Tool 33 threshold and bar High Forest-Low Deforestation projects from eligibility. Market participants have continued to attribute stalled buying activity from European airlines to a pending decision on eligible activities. "No one is quite sure when [the EU is] going to clarify what the EU airlines can or cannot do," said a Europe-based trader. "So, for now, the EU airlines are stuck; they cannot trade, they cannot really get involved." Market participants said they expect eligibility to be clarified alongside the ETS reform review in July, with liquidity expected to increase thereafter. "All the signs point to the EU, so by the end of July, we will have clarity, then maybe trading will pick up," an Asia-based developer said. Platts alsoâ¯reported earlier that the Commission was considering extending the EU ETS beyond intra-EU flights to cover extra-European routes. Such policy uncertainties were stalling a sharp improvement in demand for CORSIA credits from airlines, along with developing geopolitical and economic developments in major regions across the globe, market participants said. "Perhaps some implementation pressure from IATA can help with demand improvement," an India-based trader said.â¯ US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/electric-power/061626-caiso-sets-wind-solar-peak-records-on-increased-capacity-favorable-weather</link><description>The California Independent System Operator set a solar peak generation record of 22.849 gigawatts and a wind peak record of 8.312 GW, surpassing records set days earlier, according to the grid operator&amp;apos;s latest Key Statistics report. The May Key Statistics report showed that the solar peak record was reached at 1:47 pm PT June 10 and surpassed a May 20 record by 143 MW, while the wind peak record</description><title>CAISO sets wind, solar peak records on increased capacity, favorable weather</title><pubDate>16 June 2026 18:56:25 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Kassia Micek</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Electric Power, Energy Transition, Renewables June 16, 2026 CAISO sets wind, solar peak records on increased capacity, favorable weather By Kassia Micek Editor: Giselle Rodriguez Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Curtailments reach record high of 1.449 TWh SP15 on-peak spot prices down 81% on year The California Independent System Operator set a solar peak generation record of 22.849 gigawatts and a wind peak record of 8.312 GW, surpassing records set days earlier, according to the grid operator's latest Key Statistics report. The May Key Statistics report showed that the solar peak record was reached at 1:47 pm PT June 10 and surpassed a May 20 record by 143 MW, while the wind peak record was reached at 1:41 am May 15 and surpassed a May 4 record by 564 MW. "Capacity growth is the main driver as CAISO has added more solar and wind resources, which are now contributing to these totals," CAISO spokesperson Jayme Ackeman said June 16. "We've also added more battery storage resources to help capture some of the additional capacity these additions are bringing online. Approximately 17,000 MW as of now. Weather conditions this time of year also typically contribute to achieving these records. We typically see our highest outputs in spring as the days get longer and weather provides both stronger solar output and spring wind patterns." Wind record "The wind records are driven by the testing of the SunZia line," said Annie Gutierrez, S&amp;P Global Energy CERA senior research analyst. "The project is set to be fully operational this month." The SunZia wind and transmission system, touted as the largest clean energy infrastructure project ever in the US, was announced as fully operational June 2. The over 2.4-GW SunZia Wind South and nearly 1.1-GW SunZia Wind North projects in New Mexico connect to the Palo Verde substation in Arizona via a roughly 550-mile high-voltage transmission line that recently came under the California Independent System Operator's operational control. CAISO's installed wind capacity jumped 42% month over month or 3.651 MW between April and May, according to the Key Statistics report Solar record CAISO's installed solar capacity increased 1.3% month over month or 298 MW in May, according to the Key Statistics report. For the first five months of 2026, utility-scale solar surpassed natural-gas generation in CAISO, as solar electricity generation was up 21% compared to the same period in 2024, and gas generation decreased 60%, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Utility-scale solar generated more electricity than natural gas on a daily basis on 82% of days in the first five months of 2026, up from 21% in 2024 and 2025. "Solar records are driven by increased capacity and favorable spring/early summer weather conditions, though curtailment continues to eat into potential generation despite strong battery build-out," Gutierrez said. "We expect to see around 3 GW of solar added in 2026." CAISO wind and solar generation curtailments jumped 221% year over year to a record 1,448,995 megawatt-hours in May, which followed a 98% increase in April, according to the Key Statistics report. Battery storage capacity continues to grow in the CAISO footprint, reaching 16.531 GW in May, up 33% year over year. As curtailments and renewable capacity increased, spot prices plunged. SP15 on-peak day-ahead locational marginal price averaged $2.80/MWh in May, down 81% from a year ago. Grid operations impact These additional resources are an important factor as CAISO heads into the summer months where demand begins to peak, Ackeman said. "As a result, we are expecting the grid to perform well through the extreme weather conditions typically seen during the summer barring any unexpected emergencies," Ackeman said. "During the Spring, we also increased our exports thanks to the increased output from new generation resources." CAISO expects to add roughly 11.9 GW of wind and solar capacity through the end of 2026-end, in addition to the 5.142 GW that has achieved so far this year, she added. "This would mark a record for us, if achieved, as the most resource brought online in a single year," Ackeman said. "That said, there is a possibility some of the 11,900 MW will get pushed into 2027." US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/sustainability-insights-el-nio-2026-operational-headwind-or-credit-catalyst-s101690521</link><description>This report does not constitute a rating action. El NiÃ±o--the cyclical warming of sea surface in the central and eastern Pacific--influences weather patterns, and together with La NiÃ±a (the cooling phase) forms the El NiÃ±o-Southern Oscillation Cycle. A stronger-than-average El NiÃ±o increases global temperatures and exacerbates extreme weather events like drought and flooding, which can cause damage and disruption to companies&amp;apos; operations, assets, and supply chains. The likelihood of one deve</description><title>Sustainability Insights: El NiÃ±o 2026: Operational Headwind Or Credit Catalyst?</title><pubDate>29 June 2026 15:27:27 GMT</pubDate></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/062526-brazil-seeks-new-beef-markets-as-china-quota-fills-eu-ban-looms</link><description>Brazil&amp;apos;s protein industry is seeking to diversify its export routes, given that China&amp;apos;s beef quota is largely filled and the EU&amp;apos;s import ban is set to take effect in September. A redirection of trade flows is already underway as Brazil increases beef shipments to the US and Russia, S&amp;amp;P Global Energy CERA analyst Caroline Machado told Platts at the Agriculture and Livestock International Forum in</description><title>Brazil seeks new beef markets as China quota fills, EU ban looms</title><pubDate>25 June 2026 16:45:29 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Monique Murer</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Agriculture, Refined Products, Maritime &amp; Shipping, Energy Transition, Meat, Livestock, Biofuels, Vegetable Oils, Fuel Oil, Bunker Fuel, Renewables, Jet Fuel June 25, 2026 Brazil seeks new beef markets as China quota fills, EU ban looms By Monique Murer Editor: Meghan Gordon Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Brazil redirects beef exports to US, Russia EU bans Brazilian beef imports from September DDG boosts protein output without more land Brazil's protein industry is seeking to diversify its export routes, given that China's beef quota is largely filled and the EU's import ban is set to take effect in September. A redirection of trade flows is already underway as Brazil increases beef shipments to the US and Russia, S&amp;P Global Energy CERA analyst Caroline Machado told Platts at the Agriculture and Livestock International Forum in Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul, June 18. "The US still has room to absorb additional volume, while Russia could gain further relevance after recognizing Brazil as free of foot-and-mouth disease," Machado said. Furthermore, given a transit time of roughly 45 days, Machado said shipments to China could resume around mid-November, with cargo arriving in January and counting against the following year's quota. Starting Sept. 3, Brazil will be removed from the EU's list of countries cleared to export animal products, under a measure on growth-promoter antimicrobials that the bloc formalized in early June. Within Mercosur, it singles out Brazil. Damian Lluna, representative of the EU delegation, told the conference that the rule is not new, tracing it to 2019 legislation that has bound European producers since 2022 and is only now being extended to imports. Lluna said his colleagues in Brussels are "working intensely" with Brazil's agriculture ministry, and a call had just taken place between the Brazilian and European leaderships, where a "new mechanism" had come out of it, though he offered no further details. DDG drives efficiency in protein chain Panelists said dried distillers' grains, a coproduct of corn-ethanol production, are also reshaping the protein market. "With more DDG availability in the coming years, we will be able to produce more volume without requiring additional land," said Eduardo Pedroso, Friboi's director of cattle origination. "Younger animals mean faster turnover, with weight being the key driver of profitability," while noting this is all due to DDG's high protein content. The corn-ethanol industry is mainly centered in Mato Grosso, home to the largest cattle herd in Brazil. Data from the National Union of Corn Ethanol shows there are 14 plants in Mato Grosso, representing 48% of the country's total, with six more expected to be built in the coming years. The event also highlighted corn-ethanol's low carbon intensity. "We see corn ethanol as a marine fuel closer to reality today than sustainable aviation fuel," AndrÃ©a VerÃ­ssimo, UNEM's international relations director, told Platts at the event. "Since you can't swap a vessel's engine, the solution has to be drop-in, and corn ethanol is well on its way there." Aviation, by contrast, remains a longer game; the sector is still working out how to bridge the gap between SAF and fossil fuel, VerÃ­ssimo said. Part of that future involves technical corn oil, an ethanol coproduct being repositioned from animal feed to SAF. "We're looking at TCO in a way we didn't before," VerÃ­ssimo said, as the product's low-carbon intensity makes it eligible for SAF production. What sets the Brazilian product apart, VerÃ­ssimo said, is that it is an intermediate crop rather than a primary one, and, unlike sugarcane, it can be stored, so there is no seasonal break in supply. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/062626-interview-sbtis-net-zero-20-standard-aims-to-push-companies-to-take-action</link><description>The Science Based Targets Initiative&amp;apos;s most recent update to its Net Zero standard aimed to push companies toward implementing decarbonization goals, moving beyond simple target-setting and environmental ambition, SBTi&amp;apos;s Chief Technical Officer Alberto Carrillo Pineda told Platts in a recent interview. The group published its long-awaited 2.0 version of the standard on June 11, following one year</description><title>INTERVIEW: SBTi&amp;apos;s Net Zero 2.0 standard aims to push companies to take action</title><pubDate>26 June 2026 15:23:45 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Felipe Peroni</name><name>Jose Del angel</name><name>Vittoriaelena Morini</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Emissions, Carbon June 26, 2026 INTERVIEW: SBTi's Net Zero 2.0 standard aims to push companies to take action By Felipe Peroni, Jose Del angel, and Vittoriaelena Morini Editor: Alisdair Bowles Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Carbon credits complement decarbonization Hourly electricity matching recommended but optional The Science Based Targets Initiative's most recent update to its Net Zero standard aimed to push companies toward implementing decarbonization goals, moving beyond simple target-setting and environmental ambition, SBTi's Chief Technical Officer Alberto Carrillo Pineda told Platts in a recent interview. The group published its long-awaited 2.0 version of the standard on June 11, following one year of surveys with 323 companies and pilot tests with 50 selected companies. "The idea of the revision is to provide companies with a framework that allows them to act," Carrillo Pineda said in the interview, conducted June 19. The 1.0 Net Zero was launched on October 2021 and quickly became the gold standard of environmental certifications. While including a path for target implementation, the focus of version 1.0 was primarily goal setting and decarbonization ambitions. "We are now focusing on how companies are going to implement targets, and also what challenges companies face when implementing targets," he said. One size doesn't fit all One of the main challenges of Net Zero was creating a framework that applies to companies of different sizes and operating in unequal countries. Large businesses, or companies operating in high-income countries, often have more ability to meet decarbonization goals. The new version of the standard makes a clearer distinction between Category A companies, which are large businesses from all countries or midsized companies from high-income countries, and Category B, which are medium-sized companies from lower-income countries and small companies from all regions. The standard then sets different conditions for these two types of companies. For example, near-term targets for reducing Scope 3 emissions -- all indirect emissions in a company's value chain -- are required for Category A companies, while they remain optional for Category B. "Some companies have the highest opportunities to take action," he said. Carbon credits as an addition Market participants had been keenly awaiting the new standard's position on carbon credits, as in the previous version there were restrictions on when they were valid. The new version states that high-integrity carbon credits and other climate contributions are complementary to decarbonization, rather than a replacement. "We maintained the same position that the standard is to drive decarbonization directly," Carrillo Pineda said. "What the new version does is to recognize companies that are supporting the value chain with many instruments, including carbon credits," he added. Hierarchy of actions In a similar approach, the Net Zero 2.0 includes an implementation chapter containing a hierarchy to guide decarbonization, specifically recommending reducing emissions as close to their sources as possible. Examples are efficiency improvements, fuel switching, and engaging suppliers and customers in decarbonization efforts. When not possible, companies are encouraged to take action within shared systems, such as electricity grids, or to take sector-level actions. "Companies don't always know clearly how targets come together, so we added the implementation chapter," Carrillo Pineda added. Hourly matching In that area, while the usage of Renewable Energy Certificates remains an acceptable practice, the standard increases pressure to adopt local sourcing and more granular approaches whenever feasible. The new version establishes a specific framework for reporting electricity hourly matching, which will remain optional but "recommended", especially for type A companies. "The standard encourages companies to search for more granularity in electricity," he said. "Where this is not feasible, it is not obligatory." Meanwhile, the standard for the first time said it "requires geographical matching of electricity consumption, either directly or through attributes, based on deliverability regions." Where such granularity is not possible, an alternative is to enter into a power purchase agreement (PPA), he added. SBTi will launch a call for evidence to request more information about hourly matching practices, signaling that the practice could be even more present in future revisions of the standard. Near-term targets The new version is also more emphatic that near-term targets must be set on a five-year basis, without prejudice to long-term targets, to incentivize companies to enter a cycle of planning, execution and improvement, rather than treating targets as a box-ticking exercise. "What changes is the expectation of continuous improvement through the cycle," Pineda said in the interview, describing a governance and reporting loop that requires companies to assess implementation, document dependencies, and strengthen plans over time. Also, it considers that markets and technologies could evolve, and more flexibility is needed to adjust the goals. The revision also focuses on details that appear small at first, but help push companies in the right direction, such as stricter requirements for the base year of targets. The new standard will require companies to set targets using the latest year with available data as the base year, rather than a single historical base year. It also reintroduced the option to set absolute carbon-reduction targets. "We learned that companies find it easier if they can have aggregate emission targets, so based on this feedback, we reintroduced the option to have absolute reduction targets," he said. The new version includes a transition period, and more than 11,000 companies have their near-term targets validated through the 1.0 version, which will remain valid until the end of the five-year cycle. For target setting, the approach from version 1.0 continues through the end of 2027, with version 2.0 coming for the following cycle. "The standard tries to find a balance between what we can practically implement, and achieve emission reductions and drive change on the ground level," Carrillo Pineda said. Platts is a part of S&amp;P Global Energy. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/refined-products/062626-record-rvo-prices-reshape-refinery-economics-boost-us-jet-fuel-output-to-all-time-highs</link><description>The US fuel market is being reshaped by record-high renewable fuel compliance costs, with refiners increasingly leaning into jet fuel production as a way to limit exposure to road-fuel blending obligations. Under the Renewable Fuel Standard, obligated parties such as gasoline and diesel producers and importers are required to blend renewable fuels into the transportation fuel supply. The</description><title>Record RVO prices reshape refinery economics, boost US jet fuel output to all-time-highs</title><pubDate>26 June 2026 22:05:37 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Aaron Tucker</name><name>Ana Hernandez</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Refined Products, Agriculture, Energy Transition, Jet Fuel, Biofuels, Renewables June 26, 2026 Record RVO prices reshape refinery economics, boost US jet fuel output to all-time-highs By Aaron Tucker and Ana Hernandez Editor: Giselle Rodriguez Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Record RVO prices hit 37.62 cents/gallon US jet fuel output reaches 2.203M b/d high D4 RIN credits surge 131%, reach $2.44/gal The US fuel market is being reshaped by record-high renewable fuel compliance costs, with refiners increasingly leaning into jet fuel production as a way to limit exposure to road-fuel blending obligations. Under the Renewable Fuel Standard, obligated parties such as gasoline and diesel producers and importers are required to blend renewable fuels into the transportation fuel supply. The Environmental Protection Agency sets annual blending mandates that require parties to either blend renewable fuels or purchase compliance credits known as Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs). Jet fuel, which is not subject to EPA renewable fuel requirements, often sees increased production as refiners pivot away from the higher compliance burden of road fuels, such as diesel. As RIN prices have rallied over the course of 2026, jet fuel production has risen alongside. Jet fuel output hits repeated highs Platts assessed the current-year RVO at 37.6198 cents/gallon on June 26, setting a new all-time high and surpassing the previous record established just days earlier on June 24. At the same time, US jet fuel production has reached new all-time highs 18 times this year, with the latest Energy Information Administration data from June 24 showing a new record at 2.203 million b/d. The latest production figure is 7.6% above the five-year average and 4% above the same time last year, or 452,000 b/d and 239,000 b/d, respectively. An additional contributing factor to the record jet fuel production is the US-Iran war. At the onset of the war, jet became the most profitable product of the barrel, remaining that way until mid-May, largely due to European reliance on US jet from the Middle East. In the latest S&amp;P Global Energy Refining Margin report from June 26, the USGC jet crack was measured at $46.48/b, higher than the previous 5-day average of $41.80/b but below the ULSD crack of $62.65/b. The higher ULSD crack reflects a return to historical norms, as ULSD typically runs a premium to jet. Market sources have said the return to a normal spread between the ULSD and jet crack has been aided by the increase in the RVO. "The ULSD crack at a $15/b premium is actually losing 75 points against jet due to the RVO," remarked one US jet trader on June 23. The ULSD-jet crack spread of about $16/b is almost equal to the RVO of $15.7/b, according to the latest Platts pricing data. Rising RIN prices pushes RVO higher The record-high RVO reflects broad strength across RIN prices, with D4 biomass-based diesel credits leading the rally. Since the beginning of the year, US D4 RIN credits have soared by 131%, with prices reaching new records nearly every week since early May. Platts, last assessed D4 RINs at $2.44/gal on June 26, a new all-time high. The surge can largely be attributed to the biofuel blending mandates for 2026 and 2027, finalized in late March. These targets represent the highest volumes ever established in the 20-year history of the RFS program, with 2026 mandates up 20.06% to 26.81 billion gallons and 2027 mandates rising 21% to 27.02 billion gallons compared to 2025. Market anticipation ahead of the announcement led to a sharp contango, and prices continued to escalate as the finalized volumes exceeded earlier proposals. Following the announcement, RIN prices continued to climb as the volumes were even higher than expected and what was proposed earlier in June. To meet these targets, the EPA estimated that biodiesel and renewable diesel production would need to increase by more than 60%. In 2025, production of renewable diesel and biodiesel declined amid ongoing policy uncertainty surrounding final biofuel volume mandates and the 45Z tax credit. EIA data shows that RD production averaged 6.338 million barrels in 2024 but declined by 8% to 5.791 million barrels in 2025. Meanwhile, biodiesel output dropped 30%, from 3.316 million barrels in 2024 to 2.282 million barrels in 2025. Sentiment surrounding the higher biofuel mandates has generally been positive within the biofuel industry. However, obligated parties subject to Renewable Volume Obligationsâsuch as gasoline and diesel producers and importersâhave raised concerns about the feasibility of compliance. As one refined products trader noted, "I'm worried about there simply not being enough D4s to meet the RVO when we roll into 2027." BO-HO spread rises The CBOT soybean oil versus NYMEX ULSD spread, commonly referred to as the BO-HO, climbed to a nearly three-year high on June 16, reaching $2.2146/gal. The BO-HO is used by the biodiesel industry to gauge production costs and margins. A lower BO-HO spread encourages biodiesel producers to maximize production. As the BO-HO increases, the cost to produce biodiesel rises, leading to a decline in overall blending economics and unfavorable margins. With US diesel prices easing from their recent highs following the onset of the Iran conflict, biodiesel blending economics have weakened, which could reduce production and lead to a drop in D4 RIN generation, helping sustain high prices. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/05/prolonged-middle-east-war-to-weigh-on-sputtering-us-auto-demand</link><description>Buyers of automobiles and auto parts will face another level of sticker shock if the war in the Middle East extends into the summer.</description><title>Prolonged Middle East war to weigh on sputtering US auto demand</title><pubDate>14 May 2026 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Bill Mongelluzzo</name></author><content><![CDATA[ BLOG â May 14, 2026 Prolonged Middle East war to weigh on sputtering US auto demand By Bill Mongelluzzo US demand for automobiles and auto parts has been straining under higher inflationary costs, but buyers, both consumers and manufacturers, will face another level of sticker shock if the war in the Middle East extends into the summer. Even before the war-driven spike in gasoline prices, the US automotive industry was steeling for a tough year. Prior to the start of the conflict, Journal of Commerce parent company S&amp;P Global forecast that vehicle sales would fall 2% from the previous year due to a long list of headwinds for the industry, including higher borrowing costs for vehicle buyers and steel tariffs upping input prices. But already relatively high prices for new vehicles and auto parts â the cheapest new 2026 model car available is $20,550, according to CARFAX â will increase significantly if the war continues through May, according to a mid-March report from S&amp;P Global. If the war lasts through the end of 2026, that elevated pricing will negatively impact consumer demand and, by extension, container volumes. A war scenario of more than a year will result in continued inflation and declining demand until prices reach a new âset point,â S&amp;P Global analysts said. Containerized US imports of automobiles and auto parts fell 9.4% year over year in 2025, dragging the five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) down to 3.8%, according to PIERS, a Journal of Commerce sister product within S&amp;P Global. Exports, meanwhile, spiked 15.3%, boosting the five-year CAGR to 6.6%. The majority of seaborne vehicle imports and exports travel via roll-on/roll-off (ro/ro) ships; those volumes are not captured by PIERS data. The uncertainties surrounding the length of the war will undoubtedly impact the US container trade in vehicles and parts as importers and exporters in the automotive sector review and possibly modify their business plans, said Chris Hopson, principal analyst for the global light vehicle forecast group at S&amp;P Global. â2025 was an uncertain year because of the tariffs, and the auto industry digested it better than we might have expected,â Hopson said. However, due to the war in Iran, how long the industry can continue to bear those higher costs âis open to question.â The weakening market for new US car sales has a silver lining for importers of aftermarket parts used to maintain and repair vehicles, such as filters, batteries and brakes. Customers of Advance Auto Parts, who are often in one of the most economically depressed cohorts, typically would rather keep their cars running a little longer than shop for a new car, said CEO Shane OâKelly. âThat car is how they get to work; itâs how they get to church; [how] they get the kids to activities,â OâKelly told investors during a March 11 earnings call. âIf that thing is not running, theyâre getting it fixed, so I donât necessarily see demand curtailing.â âGeneral inconsistenciesâ Auto parts importers have been looking â and will continue to look â at changing sourcing away from China to Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent because of the higher tariffs imposed last year, according to Steve Hughes, a consultant for the aftermarket auto parts industry. But those changes canât happen overnight, Hughes explained, because it takes anywhere from six months to two years to set up operations in a new location. Mainland China accounted for 35.2% of US containerized autos and parts imports last year, down from more than 40% as recently as 2021, according to PIERS. The primary beneficiaries of Chinaâs declining market share, South Korea and Japan, have increased their combined share of the market to 27% from 20.8% during that period. Noel Hacegaba, CEO of the Port of Long Beach, said the port has experienced a general shift of sourcing of most imports, including autos and auto parts, away from China to other countries. Imports of passenger vehicles landing in Long Beach, mostly on ro/ro ships, were flat in 2025, while exports rose 6.2% year over year, according to Hacegaba. Containerized auto parts imports through the port rose 1.1%, while exports fell 15%. Los Angeles-Long Beach is the busiest US port complex for containerized auto imports. The Port of Baltimore, also a major gateway for ro/ro and containerized auto imports and exports, continues to feel the impact of tariffs. Those impacts are reflected in the higher prices consumers must pay, but the problem runs even deeper than cost, said Jonathan Daniels, executive director of the Maryland Port Administration (MPA). âThe biggest issue we have seen with shippers is the general inconsistencies in the tariffs,â Daniels told the Journal of Commerce. Although original equipment manufacturers take higher tariff costs as a given, not knowing the exact rate for finished vehicles and components makes it difficult to make strategic sourcing and production decisions, Daniels explained. Depending on the level of tariffs on each, it might be cheaper to import fully assembled cars, or it might make more sense to import the necessary pieces and assemble them in the US. Despite these uncertainties, more than 700,000 automobiles and light trucks crossed Baltimoreâs docks for the 13th consecutive year in 2025, according to MPA data. Daniels said the port continues to develop infrastructure to support processing facilities in the region, adding that exports of damaged cars to West Africa to be used for parts remains a bright spot for the industry. For containerized exports, the largest individual markets are the United Arab Emirates and Georgia, which accounted for 12% and 11.8% of outbound auto and part shipments, respectively, with no other country exceeding 10%, according to PIERS. Subscribe to JOC.com Register for Inland26 The must-attend conference for shippers and transportation and logistics providers moving goods from ports to inland destinations Click Here Learn more about our data and insights Click Here ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/04/us-imports-consumer-electronics-growth-threatened</link><description>Importers of consumer electronics affected by rising costs on US households in 2025 are facing dual threats to growth prospects in the year ahead.</description><title>US imports of consumer electronics face threats to growth plans</title><pubDate>30 March 2026 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Eric Johnson</name></author><content><![CDATA[ BLOG â Apr 17, 2026 US imports of consumer electronics face threats to growth plans By Eric Johnson (The following story appears in the Top 100 Importers and Exporters issue of the Journal of Commerce magazine to be published May 4, 2026.) Importers of consumer electronics affected by rising costs on US households in 2025 are facing dual threats to growth prospects in the year ahead: the impact of increased fuel costs on consumer discretionary spending and the skyrocketing price of memory due to demand from data center construction. That means there might be little respite for consumer electronics manufacturers and retailers after they saw containerized imports of those products dip 2.2% in 2025, according to data from PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. âEnergy prices and gas prices, thatâs going to be a headline budgetary impact on the average household,â Paul Gagnon, vice president of consumer technology at market research firm Circana, told the Journal of Commerce. âWe were already expecting consumer demand to not be great this year and that tariffs would have an impact. But food and other necessary purchases will delay demand for discretionary purchases.â A potentially bigger headwind for consumer electronics sales is the impact of memory prices. Gagnon said pricing for memory is up 400% year over year in the last few months. âData centers use huge amounts of high bandwidth memory and the generators of that memory donât have bandwidth to supply data centers and lower value memory that goes into consumer products,â he said. The impact of that dynamic wonât be isolated to the types of products most associated with memory, like laptops and tablets, but will be more widespread since virtually every consumer electronic good now has a memory component. âAny product that uses a lot of memory will be susceptible,â Gagnon said. âEven things that use memory indirectly, prices will go up.â Sony, during its fiscal third-quarter earnings call in February, noted the memory cost issue. âWe are already in a position to secure the minimum quantity necessary to manage the year-end selling season of next fiscal year,â Sony Group CFO Lin Tao said. âGoing forward, we intend to further negotiate with various suppliers to secure enough [memory] supply to meet the demand of our customers.â The way these trends manifest into container volume is not entirely clear, but Gagnon cautioned that with prices likely to increase due to the memory cost issue, retailers might see sales stay steady or rise, but on a lower volume of units. That would, in turn, hit import volume. âIt will definitely have a negative impact on volumes,â he said. âRetailers donât care about volume as much as revenues. And it might be a situation where their revenues hold up because people are willing to pay more or need something and end up having to pay more.â Sourcing shift Another sectoral trend affecting volume is changes in sourcing patterns of consumer electronics tied to the size of a product and the composition of parts needed, Gagnon explained. For instance, television supply chains had long ago shifted production to Mexico, but during 2025 saw even more concentration in that market. âWhat had left China had gone to Southeast Asia but even that had moved to Mexico,â Gagnon said. "But the shift to Mexico didnât happen broadly outside of large physical size products. For smaller products, thereâs not a big benefit to have it more local.â He also said Mexico is suitable to television production because some of the major component parts â metals and plastics â are not as sophisticated as those needed in other consumer product categories. Meanwhile, historical behavior in the electronics sector suggests that when prices rise, consumers will either put off purchases, whether new or replacement, or they will engage in what Gagnon called âtrade down behavior,â choosing a less expensive option if they need to buy. The forecast for consumer electronics manufacturing is not much better. S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence in late February revised its projection for global production of consumer electronics downward from 5.5% to 4.4%. The forecast noted that consumer electronics production tends to correlate loosely with global GDP. âHistorically, the industry overperformed the global economy by 1.6 percentage points,â the report said. âOver the last 10 years, the gap between industry and global growth even got wider. The industry grew 5.2% on average per year, over-performing GDP growth by 2.4 percentage points.â So a tick down from the average growth rate over the past decade would indicate a slowing sector in a slowing economy. US imports of consumer electronics have lost ground three of the last four years, with 2024 being the outlier, according to PIERS data, adding weight to the slowdown theory not being an isolated trend. While China dominates the supply chain for consumer electronics â it accounted for 53% of global production in 2025 â S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence said the next 10 years will see supply concentration decrease. PIERS data shows that process already occurring, with Vietnam growing its share of US consumer electronic imports from 10.1% in 2020 to 18.1% in 2025, while Chinaâs share decreased from 56.6% to 40.7% in the same period. Subscribe to JOC.com Learn more about our data and insights Click Here ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/03/us-exports-to-middle-east-in-limbo-amid-war-zone-service-disruptions</link><description>US exporters are scrambling to locate containers they shipped to the Middle East after ocean carriers halted almost all services due to the war with Iran.</description><title>US exports to Middle East in limbo amid war zone service disruptions</title><pubDate>19 March 2026 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Michael Angell</name></author><content><![CDATA[ BLOG â Mar 19, 2026 US exports to Middle East in limbo amid war zone service disruptions By Michael Angell US exporters are scrambling to locate containers they have shipped to the Middle East but were subsequently dropped off at unknown ports after ocean carriers were forced to halt almost all services due to the war with Iran. While the logistical hurdles for Middle East cargo are more of an inconvenience at this point for US exporters rather than a full-blown crisis, shippers see a bigger risk in the warâs longevity and the downstream effect of higher oil prices. Mediterranean Shipping Co. invoked an âend of voyageâ clause this week on exports into Jebel Ali in Dubai, allowing the carrier to discharge containers at the next available port on the shipâs rotation, forwarders tell the Journal of Commerce. The end-of-voyage clause also includes an $800 surcharge. Stephen Zambo, president of third-party logistics provider AGL Group, said he has about 70 containers on the water with MSC destined for the Middle East. He is now figuring out where the next port of call will be for those boxes and bracing his customers for more costs and delays due to the redirections. Along with those containers, AGL has three containers on the ONE Majesty that was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday. Although the vessel suffered some damage, Zambo was told the ship would continue its original voyage. âWeâre having to figure out each day whatâs going on and what we need to do,â Zambo said. âItâs like itâs been over the last two years with tariffs and other crises, sort of wait-and-see how things play out and act accordingly.â MSC handles about half the container volumes from the US to the Middle East each year, which amounts to about 290,000 TEUs, according to PIERS, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Maersk and CMA CGM are the second- and third-busiest carriers on that trade lane. Tim Avanzato, director of global logistics for paper and plastic products maker Lanca Sales, told the Journal of Commerce thereâs little risk of that US export cargo backing up at ports, as most of it can be sold to other markets. However, the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting surge in oil prices is concerning because that raises the cost of the products that Lanca Sales distributes. Water and hygiene services company Ecolab imposed a 10% to 14% energy surcharge on its products on Wednesday due to crude oil futures rising to over $100 per barrel. âThe Mideast situation is more of an inconvenience at this point,â Avanzato said. âBut the fallout if this goes on for weeks? Itâs a catastrophe.â Zambo said there are other markets that US exporters can tap. But some products such as certain softwoods are milled specifically for Middle East markets. âThe lumber producers are now trying to figure out what to do with the product they have,â he said. Higher oil prices have also resulted in escalating fuel surcharges for all trades. Zambo said he has been in discussions about shipping trans-Atlantic cargo into the US, but carriers have been unwilling to commit to rates due to the surge in fuel prices. Reviewing new routes The director of global logistics for a Houston-based chemicals company told the Journal of Commerce he is expecting his iso-tanks onboard MSC vessels destined for Jebel Ali to land in India now due to the end-of-voyage clause. He is now looking at new routes outside of the Middle Eastâs main port. CMA CGM, which last week suspended all Middle East bookings, on Wednesday reopened bookings for alternative ports such as the UAEâs Khor Fakkan or Omanâs Sohar port, which sit outside of the Strait of Hormuz. CMA CGM is also offering service to Saudi Arabiaâs Red Sea port of Jeddah and trucking cargo from there. But Jeddah would also involve transiting the Red Sea, which raises the risk of a potential attack by Iran-aligned Houthi rebels. The source said the regional risk is such that MSC has also suspended bookings into Israelâs Haifa, leaving Zim Integrated Shipping Services as the only carrier to service that port. MSCâs suspension of Haifa service could not be independently confirmed. âThe Red Sea is a mess,â the executive said. âI have no confidence it will get there.â He added that heâs looking to move containers to Egyptâs Port Said, a transshipment hub outside of the immediate warzone at the northern end of the Suez Canal on the Mediterranean Sea. Outside of servicing his customers, the source said his main concern now is how the oil price spike will play out for the economy. The cost of intermediate chemicals from the Middle East, including ammonia and cyclo-hexane, has jumped, resulting in further cost pressures for his own companyâs products. âFuel costs are going to kill everybody,â he said. âThatâs the wildcard.â This article was originally published in the Journal of Commerce on March 13, 2026. Subscribe to JOC.com Learn more about our data and insights Click Here ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/06/us-retailers-forecast-early-peak-shipping-season</link><description>US retailers expect an early but brief peak shipping season as importers frontload goods ahead of tariffs and rising fuel costs.</description><title>US retailers forecast early â&amp;#x80;&amp;#x94; and brief â&amp;#x80;&amp;#x94; peak shipping season</title><pubDate>18 June 2026 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Bill Mongelluzzo</name></author><content><![CDATA[ BLOG â Jun 18, 2026 US retailers forecast early â and brief â peak shipping season By Bill Mongelluzzo US retailers on June 8 upgraded their forecast for June imports, confirming that the peak shipping season has come early this year as importers frontload fall and holiday merchandise ahead of new tariffs and what could be even higher fuel prices. But that cargo spike is expected to be short-lived, with the National Retail Federation (NRF) lowering its prior forecast for imports landing through the rest of the summer and into early fall. âThe current import surge will likely last into July, with an early peak season that resembles the more recent pattern of raised volume rather than a sharp peak,â Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said Monday in the Global Port Tracker (GPT). âAfter this, we expect a weakening in import volume as consumer uncertainty remains high and the impact of increasing inflation takes its toll.â GPT is published monthly by the NRF and Hackett Associates. Imports in June are now forecast to total 2.25 million TEUs, up from 2.13 million TEUs in the May GPT and 14.3% higher year over year. The year-over-year gain is skewed somewhat by the fact that imports plummeted last May and June after the Trump administration implemented widespread tariffs on US trading partners. After the June bump, the GPT expects weaker volumes through September. July imports are forecast to total 2.19 million TEUs, down from 2.2 million TEUs in last monthâs report and 8.4% lower year over year. August imports of 2.12 million TEUs were downgraded from 2.19 million TEUs and would be 8.6% lower than August 2025. Septemberâs imports were revised lower to 2.06 million TEUs from 2.08 million TEUs, and would be down 2.2% on the year. The GPT, in its initial import forecast for October, expects 2.08 million TEUs, up a marginal 0.1% year over year. The 10% global tariffs imposed under Section 122 of the US Trade Act are set to expire on July 24, to be replaced by tariffs of 10% to 12.5%, which is contributing to the decision by retailers to frontload imports. âWe expect to see a year-over-year increase this month thatâs partly driven by retailers bringing in merchandise early because of higher costs from tariffs or fuel prices that could start coming in August,â Jonathan Gold, NRFâs vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said in the statement accompanying the GPT. âNonetheless, the ongoing trend is for lower imports as the conflict in Iran continues to cause higher inflation and economic uncertainty.â An index produced by maritime intelligence provider Vizion shows booking demand for Chinese imports is increasing. The index hit its 2026 high of 117 for the week ending May 11, the most recent data available. Reflecting the strong import volumes, trans-Pacific spot rates have jumped to their highest level this year. West Coast rates of $5,000 per FEU are up almost 80% in just the past month, according to data from Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Rates to the East Coast of $6,100 per FEU are almost 60% higher. Spot rates could go even higher as carriers have pre-filed an additional general rate increase effective June 15, forwarders told the Journal of Commerce. The GPT forecasts imports at 13 US ports: Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Tacoma, New York/New Jersey, Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami, Jacksonville and Houston. This article was originally published in the Journal of Commerce on June 8, 2026. Subscribe to JOC.com Learn more about our data and insights Click Here Register for Inland26 The must-attend conference for shippers and transportation and logistics providers moving goods from ports to inland destinations Click Here ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/us-resin-shippers-look-to-tap-new-customers-amid-iran-war</link><description>US resin exports have ticked higher as the war in the Middle East shuts off the largest source of global plastics supply.</description><title>US resin shippers look to tap new customers amid Iran war</title><pubDate>30 March 2026 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Michael Angell</name></author><content><![CDATA[ BLOG â Mar 30, 2026 US resin shippers look to tap new customers amid Iran war By Michael Angell US resin exports have ticked higher as the war in the Middle East shuts off the largest source of global plastics supply. The sustainability of the export demand, though, hinges largely on the warâs duration and the capacity of North American producers to make more resin. Export container bookings for resins hit 6,191 on March 16, according to maritime visibility provider Vizion. That compares with the nearly 3,500 to 4,500 daily bookings typically made throughout all of 2026. The first week of March saw the highest number of export resin bookings, 22,653, since the last week of January. Most bookings occur during weekdays. The bookings come as Iranâs attacks on commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have cut off the Middle Eastâs resin producers from world markets. The Middle East accounts for 15% of global polyethylene supply, the most widely traded type of resin, according to S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence. The disruption in the Gulf has already sent US polyethylene prices higher. Asia and Europe are the most affected by the disruption in Middle East resin exports, Shruthi Vangipuram, an analyst with Wood Mackenzie, told the Journal of Commerce. While both regions have their own resin production, they depend on crude oil feedstocks that have also become more expensive. âSoutheast Asia, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have been impacted the most,â she said. âProducers in the region are struggling to secure feedstock and operating rates in these countries have been severely curtailed.â Vangipuram estimates that resin plants in Asia and Europe are running at only about 70% of their production capacity due to higher prices for feedstock crude oil. In contrast, US producers are running at about 90% utilization. She said US producers can delay maintenance to keep production levels high through the second quarter, but that would still not fill the gap in global demand. âWe can flex to 95%, 98% utilization, but it depends on which markets it makes sense to sell to,â Vangipuram said. Pricing arbitrage favors trans-Atlantic Export capacity from the US to Asia is ample, according to an executive of a third-party logistics provider, who estimated that backhaul utilization for most ocean carriers hovers near 50%. Spot rates for dry freight to Asia from the US Gulf, which dominates resin exports, are currently running between $500 and $700 for a standard-sized container, while shipping a 20-foot container used primarily for resins runs about 80% of that rate. Trans-Atlantic rates have also been stable, hovering near $1,100 for a 20-foot container from the US Gulf to Northern Europe, according to Xeneta. The rate for shipping a 20-foot container out of the Southeast Atlantic ports has moved higher since the start of the year, going from just over $700 to $757 this week, Xeneta said. Carriers are removing ships and port calls from trans-Atlantic services, tightening up some of the capacity in that market. Outbound US cargo does not face any significant delays with bookings available about two weeks out. The real risk for shippers will be in fuel surcharges that are being applied on global trades due to the Middle East war, as well as a potential general rate increase in April. Outside of freight rates and vessel space, Vangipuram said the real driver for US exports will be the direction of local pricing. Asian prices will still need to move higher to attract more US imports. With a four- to six-week lead time for imports, Asian buyers will need to see the conflict drag out before buying from the US. Europe, which is the second-biggest market for US resins after South America, has seen its benchmark polyethylene prices rise by one-third since the end of February. Vangipuram said Europe would likely be the first market to see additional US imports thanks to the much shorter voyage time and the sharper price move. âThe arbitrage works out better in the Atlantic than to Asia because of freight rates and shorter shipping times,â Vangipuram said. âWe may not see the volume from the US make it into those markets that would appear to need it most.â This article was originally published in the Journal of Commerce on March 20, 2026. Subscribe to JOC.com Learn more about our data and insights Click Here ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/04/hormuz-closure-project-logistics-supply-chain</link><description>The near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the war in the Middle East will haunt global breakbulk and project markets, experts say.</description><title>Hormuz closure triggers â&amp;#x80;&amp;#x98;havocâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99; for project logistics supply chain</title><pubDate>24 April 2026 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Carly Fields</name></author><content><![CDATA[ BLOG â Apr 24, 2026 Hormuz closure triggers âhavocâ for project logistics supply chain By Carly Fields The near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the war in the Middle East will haunt global breakbulk and project markets long after the final missiles are fired, sector specialists say. Speaking during a March 26 Journal of Commerce webcast, JosÃ© Enrique Sevilla-Macip, senior research analyst for Latin America Country Risk at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, said there had been a 97% decrease in transits across the Strait of Hormuz over the past 25 days, noting that on March 25, for the first time since the conflict began, not a single vessel crossed the waterway. The paralysis is triggering a shift from initial price shocks to actual physical shortages of fuel and goods. On the ground, the logistics of moving breakbulk and project cargo goods has become a balancing act of cancellations and rerouting. Marc Cowie, CEO for North America at project cargo forwarder Trans Global Projects (TGP), said that many carriers are refusing to even quote for cargo entering the war region due to skyrocketing insurance premiums. The disruption is also creating a âlag impactâ that will persist for months. âThere will undoubtedly be ships out of position, cargo out of position, and thereâs going to be a knock-on effect,â Cowie said on the webcast. âItâs going to take some time to get back to normality.â For panelist Christian Ohlrich, global director for logistics at energy storage products manufacturer Fluence Energy, the crisis is manifesting most acutely in the energy sector. He described the âfuel shockâ as a primary concern, with bunker supplies depleting rapidly, particularly in Asia. This has led to a chaotic environment for manufacturing and project execution. âItâs creating quite some havoc,â Ohlrich said. âItâs crunching schedules. Itâs increasing costs.â He noted that while larger projects can still attract the necessary multipurpose vessels, smaller, less âenticingâ shipments are being delayed by weeks. That is not, however, stopping Fluenceâs project operations. âWe have plenty of buffers,â Ohlrich said. âIâm still making all my commitments. Itâs just changing the flow of project execution.â This includes changing internal team arrangements to meet the sequence of a project. âItâs an inconvenience rather than a hindrance,â he said. Oil prices expected to remain elevated The bunker fuel shortage is unlikely to ease in the short term. Sevilla-Macip expects oil prices to remain above $100 per barrel for at least the next month, although he holds out hope they could return to $60 by year-end if hostilities cease soon. However, the path to peace is cluttered with âsignpostsâ of further escalation, he said. These include potential Iranian attacks on US aircraft, the involvement of Tehran-backed Houthi militants in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, or the targeting of critical civilian infrastructure such as desalination plants. In the face of this volatility, the advice from project shippers and forwarders is a mix of tactical flexibility and rigorous planning. TGPâs Cowie urged shippers to work in close partnership with forwarders to find alternative routes or modes, such as trucking cargo across the Arabian Peninsula to safer ports. âWe have to remain flexible, remain calm,â Cowie said. âLogistics is about challenges. It is about overcoming those challenges.â Ohlrich echoed that, stressing the need for better foresight. âTighten up your planning and forecasting as much as possible,â he advised the webcast. âThe better you can plan ahead, especially in situations where you see these kinds of disruptions, the better.â This article was originally published in the Journal of Commerce on March 30, 2026. Subscribe to JOC.com Learn more about our data and insights Click Here ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/06/us-warehousing-expanding-faster-at-key-inland-hubs</link><description>US warehousing tightens in key inland hubs as shippers diversify supply chains and demand rises in markets such as Chicago and Indianapolis.</description><title>US warehousing expanding faster at key inland hubs</title><pubDate>25 June 2026 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>William B. Cassidy</name></author><content><![CDATA[ BLOG â Jun 25, 2026 US warehousing expanding faster at key inland hubs By William B. Cassidy Industrial vacancy rates remain high across the US, but warehouses are filling up in certain markets. Space is getting tighter at industrial sites in key inland logistics hubs such as Chicago, Indianapolis and the Ohio Valley and extending to Texas and Phoenix. US shippers are diversifying their mix of inland hubs to better connect with end-customers, said Erin Brenner, US head of first-mile and depot for A.P. Moller-Maersk. âInland hubs are becoming strategic nodes for customers,â Brenner told the Journal of Commerce. She highlighted Memphis, Tennessee; Dallas; Kansas City, Missouri; and Chicago. âSpecifically in the US, itâs those four,â she said. Those cities have long been leading inland transit points for international freight, but they are becoming even more important to shippers. âItâs about where shippers need additional levers to pull,â Brenner said. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain disruption has become continual, not cyclical, she said. âItâs about having the additional levers based on the disruption we see now.â Across the US, industrial vacancy rates average 7.4%, according to a report on the US industrial real estate market released by Colliers this month. In the 25 largest US industrial markets, the average vacancy rate is a slightly lower 7.2%. Industrial real estate developer Prologis put the US average vacancy rate at 7.5%, which it described as âa rather low levelâ during a presentation to investors June 2. âThat presents recovery opportunity, but demand is still not up to a normal level,â said Christopher N. Caton, managing director of global strategy and analytics for Prologis. Colliersâ report found that vacancy rates in 2026 to date rose 11 basis points year over year in the 25 largest industrial real estate markets while climbing 37 basis points nationwide, a signal of nascent demand in larger markets. In Chicago, the vacancy rate is 4.9%, according to Colliers. In Cincinnati and Columbus, Ohio, the rates are 4.6% and 5.2%, respectively. Kansas Cityâs rate is 5.3% and Nashvilleâs is 5.7%. âWeâre seeing Chicago really grow,â said Brenner. âOur container depots are pretty full [moving goods] out of Chicago.â Those depots play a major role in getting empty containers back to Asia via West Coast ports, she said. Phoenix had the highest vacancy rate of the 25 largest markets, at 10.6%, according to Colliers, a sign that there is plenty of room for growth in what has been a fast-growing market. âWeâre seeing increased [volumes] into Phoenix from Southern California, with connectivity to Houston and North Texas,â said Brenner. âWeâre also seeing increased rail volume to Cleveland, the Ohio Valley and Nashville.â Frontloading and data centers Those increased volumes follow a surge in US imports from Asia in May and higher US manufacturing activity. US imports from Asia last month jumped 13% from April, to 1.68 million TEUs, according to PIERS, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Domestically, shipment volumes are still declining but at a slower rate, according to the Cass Freight Index. In annualized terms, the indexâs shipments component dropped 1.2% in May after falling 4.4% in April. Sequentially, the index rose 3% in May from April. New demand may be temporary, the product of freight frontloading by international and domestic shippers ahead of higher costs or fears of disruption. But for those unloading containers at ports, driving trucks or stocking goods in warehouses, it feels real. Data center construction is another factor driving demand for warehousing and industrial space. About 10% of Prologisâ new leasing demand in the first quarter came from data center suppliers. âAround the US, Southeast markets have been the strongest,â Prologis CFO Timothy D. Arndt said during the June 2 investorsâ presentation. âOur more interior central markets have also been surprisingly strong and well-poised to lead market rent growth out of this inflection.â Warehouses are well prepared to handle an early wave of US imports, Prologis CEO Daniel Letter said during a Port of Los Angeles briefing on Tuesday. âTheyâre ready for those surgesâ after dealing with several years of disruption sparked by the COVID-19 pandemic, he said. Meanwhile, the US warehouse rate index from warehousing platform WarehouseQuote was 111.8 in May, unchanged from April and the lowest since April 2025. The index is a measure of warehouse rental rates nationally. Warehouse growth linked to supply chain diversification Occupier demand exceeded new supply of industrial space in 11 of the 25 largest industrial markets over the past year, Colliers said, helping tighten market conditions. Indianapolis led those markets with 15.7 million square feet of net absorption but only 3.9 million square feet of new supply. Colliers also saw demand significantly outpace deliveries of new industrial facilities in Columbus, Phoenix and Memphis. Indianaâs capital had the highest growth in demand and the biggest decrease in its vacancy rate, according to the Colliers report. Asking rents for industrial space in Indianapolis have climbed more than 50% over the past five years, according to Colliers. Maerskâs Brenner attributes some of the warehousing growth in inland hubs to continuing diversification of shipper supply chains. Since the pandemic, âweâve seen more customers move away from [Los Angeles-Long Beach] to alternative gateways,â she said. That changes the routes they choose to move freight inland. âThey need multimodal options,â particularly access to intermodal rail, said Brenner. Tighter delivery requirements and penalties for late shipments are also spurring changes for more shippers. This article was originally published by the Journal of Commerce on June 18,2026. Executive Editor Mark Szakonyi and Senior Editor Bill Mongelluzzo contributed to this report. Subscribe to JOC.com Learn more about our data and insights Click Here Register for Inland26 The must-attend conference for shippers and transportation and logistics providers moving goods from ports to inland destinations Click Here ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/03/us-israel-iran-war-provokes-shipping-lane-shifts</link><description>Global supply networks may feel the impact through a mixture of energy market disruptions, airfreight challenges and container freight shipping network interruptions.</description><title>US-Israel Iran war provokes shipping lane shifts</title><pubDate>03 March 2026 17:10:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Ines Nastali</name><name>Chris Rogers</name><name>Vania Alvarez Murakami</name><name>Eric Oak</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Research â Mar 03, 2026 US-Israel Iran war provokes shipping lane shifts By Ines Nastali, Chris Rogers, Vania Alvarez Murakami, and Eric Oak The US and Israel on Feb. 28 launched a large-scale, coordinated air campaign against Iran, striking a broad range of leadership, military, security and nuclear targets. A forced government change is now a key objective according to S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence country risk analysts. Global supply networks may feel the impact through a mixture of energy market disruptions, airfreight challenges and container freight shipping network interruptions. In the case of energy, shipping via the Strait of Hormuz needs to continue; flows of LNG may be disrupted as well as crude oil. Energy supply chain disruption Absent an extended closure of the Strait, or the destruction of liquefaction assets, the impact is unlikely to be long term in nature. The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) is likely to expand targeting of critical Gulf energy infrastructure if US and Israeli strikes target Iranian critical national infrastructure and major crude export terminals. Air freight disruption Global air freight networks face challenges from the halt to flights through many of the regional ports, including the hubs of Doha and Dubai. These hubs handle around 2.6 million metric tons and 2.2 million metric tons of airfreight respectively, or around 4.0% of the total global airfreight volumes. The ability of air freight networks to adapt is partly limited by aircraft flight ranges, though networks can rapidly adapt as was shown during the pandemic. Container shipping disruption Continued discussions on these events are taking place at TPM 26 this week. join the conversation. Container shipping faces challenges to both local actions in the Strait of Hormuz and the wider region through shipping via the Red Sea. Local actions in the Strait of Hormuz impact key shipping hubs for container freight, including Jebel Ali in Dubai, as we previously identified at the time of June 2025 conflict. Container lines are also redirecting shipping away from the Red Sea once more. CMA CGM SA has ordered all vessels in the Gulf to proceed to shelter and AP Moeller Maersk A/S has rerouted vessels bound for the Red Sea around the Cape. Want to understand the broader story? Connect with us to learn more Learn More ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/06/canada-readies-legislation-overhauling-supply-chain</link><description>Canadian supply chain legislation may reshape labor reform, port infrastructure and operations, boosting trade resilience and reducing freight disruption.</description><title>Canada readies ambitious legislation to reform supply chain</title><pubDate>02 June 2026 18:00:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Eric Johnson</name></author><content><![CDATA[ BLOG â June 2, 2026 Canada readies ambitious legislation to reform supply chain By Mark Szakonyi A series of federal consultations in Canada this month have laid the groundwork for new supply chain-focused legislation seeking to reduce labor disruption at seaports and other transport modes. The consultations by the federal government on transportation labor, ports and digitalization lasted mere weeks, reflecting the speed of the current government and its intentions for legislation anticipated to be introduced as soon as mid-June, according to three sources familiar with the matter. The legislation is part of a larger effort by Prime Minister Mark Carney to double non-US exports within the decade and boost supply chain resilience by investing in ports and curbing freight disruptions. âTheyâre moving at the speed of Carney,â said one of the sources, referring to the prime ministerâs aggressive approach to reform and investment. The source added that the governmentâs first meaningful attempt to reform Canadaâs labor code in three decades was âunprecedented.â Still, Canadian labor groups are warning against any attempt to have port workers designated as essential employees, thus crippling their ability to strike and employersâ ability to lock them out. âUnifor has and will engage in good faith in this flawed process, but we can hear the dog whistles of union-busting weaved throughout the governmentâs questions and reference documents,â Lana Payne, the unionâs national president, said in a statement. â¯ But one source tied to federal labor relations said the legislation is unlikely to strip the right to strike from organized workers and instead to create a special mediator to guide contract negotiations through bumps and impasses. The mediator role was one of the recommendations to come out of a federal study on Canadian West Coast ports. Such an individual would get involved in negotiations from the beginning and provide recommendations publicly when negotiations grind down, according to the labor relations source. How much power this mediator would have to force arbitration, however, isnât yet clear. The federal study of West Coast ports labor was triggered by a 13-day work stoppage in 2023 at the ports of Vancouver and Prince Rupert, which was followed in late 2024 with a 10-day strike and then lockout. The disruptions were two of 16 that have impacted the transportation sector since 2019, according to Canadaâs Ministry of Transportation. The current contract between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) and British Columbia employers expires in March 2027, with formal negotiations expected to begin in November, according to the labor relations source. Increase borrowing limits of ports Through the supply chain legislation, port employer interests also want to enshrine into law that the ILWU can only negotiate with employers as a group rather than individually. The Canadian West Coast isnât recognized in Canadaâs labor code as a common geography similar to the East Coast with the ports of Halifax, Montral and Saint John. The union during past contentious negotiation cycles has threatened to complicate contract talks by negotiating with each of the West Coastâs more than one dozen employers rather than collectively with the British Columbia Maritime Employers Association. Out of the consultations focused on ports, backers hope the legislation that follows will allow ports to increase their borrowing abilities. It costs tens of thousands of dollars and takes at least a year for port authorities to increase their borrowing limits, said Daniel-Robert Gooch, president and CEO of the Association of Canadian Port Authorities. His group proposes rather than enforcing a strict borrowing limit, a debt-to-income ratio should be imbedded in the constitution, providing flexibility to faster-growing ports. Port authorities also want a freer hand to engage in activities outside their land and waterway such as being able to sell unused, prime downtown acreage, Gooch said. âIf Vancouver is challenged [borrowing for] projects, then surely, just about every other port in the country that is much smaller than Vancouver probably faces the same challenge to a degree,â said Peter Xotta, CEO of the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority. Fussing over fees In addition to wanting labor reform, ocean carriers and marine terminal operators want the Canadian legislation to inject more transparency into its leases with tenants, particularly as it pertains to special fees. The Canada Transportation Agency on Feb. 13 dismissed a request by the Shipping Federation of Canada to intervene against Vancouver Fraser Port Authorityâs empty container fee. Gooch, representing port authorities, downplayed how much more transparency is needed in terms of port fees, arguing the current system to challenge these fees is sufficient. Xotta said that tenants need to be able to understand and challenge fees, but it canât hamstring the port authorityâs ability to make a return on investment. The federal consultations also addressed potentially repealing the Shipping Conference Exemption Act, a move that ocean carriers and terminal operators support if the limited antitrust exemption allowing operating alliances remains. That protection could be granted by the government via a policy statement, according to one source close to the shipping industryâs thinking. The consultations tied to digitalization have been focused on harmonizing systems and could potentially lead to legislation requiring the creation of a maritime single window, a digital platform for the clearing of ships, cargo and crews. This article was originally published in the Journal of Commerce on May 29, 2026. Subscribe to JOC.com Register for Inland26 The must-attend conference for shippers and transportation and logistics providers moving goods from ports to inland destinations Click Here Learn more about our data and insights Click Here ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/04/oil-price-shocks-are-testing-resilience-across-methodologies-among-sp-smallcap-600-indices</link><description>The war in the Middle East and the subsequent surge in oil prices have been key drivers of volatility across U.S equity segments as inflation expectations risk de-anchoring. </description><title>Oil Price Shocks Are Testing Resilience Across Methodologies Among S&amp;amp;P SmallCap 600 Indices </title><pubDate>09 April 2026 06:30:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Patricia Medina</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Research â 9 April, 2026 Oil Price Shocks Are Testing Resilience Across Methodologies Among S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Indices By Patricia Medina Executive Summary The war and the subsequent surge in crude oil prices have amplified volatility in U.S. equity markets, including the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Index. Analysis of small cap equities reveals varying degrees of resilience to recent market fluctuations. The AI-driven tools in S&amp;P Global Market Intelligenceâs Capital IQ Pro platform, along with Xpressfeed, Portfolio Analytics, and data from S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices, help clients uncover insights into equity volatility. This article examines the extent to which elevated oil prices influence the distribution and density of the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 index and a sample of small cap indices with diverse construction methodologies, using 10-year historical daily data. Also, it explores the sector-level dispersion of risk-adjusted returns between cyclical and defensive sectors within small caps as a potential consequence of these dynamics. The war in the Middle East and the subsequent surge in oil prices have been key drivers of volatility across U.S equity segments as inflation expectations risk de-anchoring. The chart below illustrates the density and distribution of four S&amp;P SmallCap 600 stock indices compared to oil price fluctuations since 2016. The oil price range exhibits more outliers on both ends compared to indices. On Friday, February 27 (black dot), the day before the first U.S-Israel strikes on Iran, the four S&amp;P SmallCap 600 equity indices traded at decade highs, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price stood at $67.06ânear recent lows. Then, the war began, pushing oil price higher settling at $99.56, in contrast to declining levels across the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 indices two weeks into the conflict by Friday, March 13 (red dot). During this period, the average decline across the analyzed group was about 85 points, with variations observed on each index's specific profile. Historical data is available via Xpressfeed and other delivery mechanisms that investors can leverage to populate algorithms and models. S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Index &amp; S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Equal Weighted Index Both indices experienced declines as the war continued, with the Equal Weighted version declining more than the group average and outpacing the market-cap weighted counterpart. Despite the pullback, both indices remain near long-term highs, even as oil tested $100 by March 13. Historically, the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Index has shown retests around the 1,300 and 950 levels over the past decade. The Equal Weighted version, which has yet to break above 2,000, displays moderate density near 1,600 and 1,000 since 2016. S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Value Index &amp; S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Growth Index As oil price trended higher on the chart above, the Value and Growth categories demonstrated greater resilience to the downside during the initial 10 trading days of the war, remaining near their decade highs. The Value Index showed the highest resilience. The Growth Index's decline was also less than the group average, approaching 1,150. Both indices are characterized by limited historical stock dispersion in the last decade. As noted below, small cap equities tend to be sensitive to spikes in oil prices as they increase input and logistics costs. The climbing oil price is also impacting dispersion across the 11 sectors in the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 index. In addition to S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices performance monitoring, the chart below plots YTD figures, accessible via Capital IQ Proâs Portfolio Analytics offered by S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence. These tools can be combined with user-defined custom functions to allow for ad-hoc or scheduled batch reporting. By mid-March, Energy sector equities posted higher risk-adjusted returns while defensive sectors Utilities and Health Care hovered toward the lower end of the spectrum. Learn more about Portfolio Analytics on Capital IQ Pro Click Here Learn more about Xpressfeed Click Here ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/06/us-bolsters-customs-enforcement-of-small-and-foreign-importers</link><description>Trumpâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99;s executive order boosts CBP customs enforcement: higher bonds, stricter scrutiny of foreign IORs, beneficial-ownership checks, and tougher penalties.</description><title>US bolsters customs enforcement of small and foreign importers</title><pubDate>11 June 2026 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Mark Szakonyi</name></author><content><![CDATA[ BLOG â Jun 11, 2026 US bolsters customs enforcement of small and foreign importers By Mark Szakonyi US President Donald Trump has signed an executive order strengthening customs enforcement to enhance the scrutiny of importers, particularly smaller businesses and those based abroad. The executive order, signed June 3, will raise bonding requirements for importers of record (IORs) and require them to show they arenât shell companies by disclosing domestic assets. The order also places increased scrutiny on âforeignâ IORs, including not allowing them to make informal customs entries, which are typically used for low-value shipments. The order targets small, infrequent importers that are largely unknown to US Customs and Border Protection (CBP), as well as importers using diversions from one country to another to reduce their duty exposure. Importers will also be required to share volume forecasts with CBP, although the frequency hasnât been disclosed. âCustoms reform is long overdue. Systemic inefficiencies, loopholes, insufficient enforcement mechanisms, and outdated processes have created opportunities for malign actors to evade federal law,â Trumpâs order read. âExamples of noncompliance include undervaluing imports, withholding critical information about IORs and the goods being imported, and avoiding payment of duties through various arrangements and schemes.â The executive order requires US importers to show they have a physical US presence, generate business activity, and hold domestic assets. Importers will also be required to provide more detailed information, including proof of beneficial ownership and more exact product specification, and provide to the CBP within 90 days the identical paperwork given to customs agencies at the country of origin. The order also calls for Customs to not allow relief from penalties over 50% of the assessed value and limit repeat offendersâ ability to challenge penalties. Customs and the Department of Homeland Security are mandated within 180 days to create enhanced methods to fight the evasion of duty paying and other customs noncompliance. The immediate online response to Trumpâs executive order from the customs community has been mixed. On one hand, the order could answer a question that has long dogged customs brokers: Who truly owns the cargo and is thus legally responsible? Others fear that, besides creating more administrative work, the order will give license to customs agents to be heavy-handed. Higher scrutiny, more holds The executive order, which the White House says wonât take effect immediately, comes as customs brokers and shippers, at least anecdotally, report an increase since the start of this year in customs holds placed on their inbound containers. Shipments from Vietnam, where goods made in China can be misclassified to avoid higher tariffs, receive extra scrutiny, and sourcing shifts to Southeast Asia create unfamiliar origins on customs declarations, raising the interest of agents, various sources tell the Journal of Commerce. Thereâs been a recent increase in customs holds for containers from China at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, said Alexander Owens, an attorney and partner at Pietrangelo Gordon Alfano Bosick. CBP doesnât disclose data on how many times it stops a container for inspection, something that delays shipments and opens cargo owners and consignees to additional storage fees. But thereâs no doubt Customs enforcement has ramped up. The Department of Justice through the first five months of the year has received more than $570.6 million in judgements and settlements tied to government contracting fraud, according to Owens, who represents whistleblowers who make claims under the False Claims Act, legislation that allows the federal government to pursue fraud committed against federal programs. âThe rise in customs holds is likely the result of a confluence of several factors: a protectionist administration, the end of the de minimis exemption, and CBPâs increasing use of AI to screen shipments for anomalies,â Owens said. âFrankly, given how hawkish this administration is on trade, it would be unusual if holds didnât rise.â Higher tariffs in Trumpâs second term have spurred some shippers to turn to a delivered duty paid (DDP) structure where the seller assumes all risks and costs but sometimes undervalues the tariffs that were owed, said Steven Heid, president of SJ Stile Associates, a customs broker and forwarder. As a result, Customs are taking a harder look at overseas shippers, foreign entities and those using questionable structures in duty payment, he said. âFrom an industry perspective, many customs brokers, freight forwarders, sureties, and compliance professionals began noticing increased scrutiny as tariffs became a larger component of landed costs,â Heid said. âThere is also a growing belief within the trade community that CBPâs increased use of advanced data analytics and artificial intelligence allows the agency to more effectively identify unusual trade patterns, importers-of-record changes, valuation anomalies, country of origin concerns and significant shipping arrangements over time.â This article was originally published by the Journal of Commerce on June 4, 2026. Subscribe to JOC.com Learn more about our data and insights Click Here Register for Inland26 The must-attend conference for shippers and transportation and logistics providers moving goods from ports to inland destinations Click Here ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/05/middle-east-fuel-shock-exacerbates-rising-us-ag-export-costs</link><description>The Middle East war is driving up US ag export costs and sapping global demand, extending a slowdown after weak 2025 growth and Chinaâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99;s fading market.&amp;#xd;&amp;#xa;&amp;#xd;&amp;#xa;</description><title>Middle East fuel shock exacerbates rising US ag export costs</title><pubDate>07 May 2026 18:30:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Bill Mongelluzzo</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Research â May 7, 2026 Middle East fuel shock exacerbates rising US ag export costs By Bill Mongelluzzo The war in the Middle East will further increase the cost of US agricultural exports â and further diminish global demand â after a 2025 in which growth slowed despite the efforts by shippers to replace a rapidly vanishing Chinese market. War-linked bunker fuel surcharges, as well as soaring diesel prices for inland truck and rail movements, could âadd tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of dollars to our costs,â Mike Symonanis, director of strategic network at Louis Dreyfus Company and chairman of the American Cotton Shippers Association, told the Journal of Commerce. Symonanis said agricultural exporters are closely scrutinizing the surcharges, which will be most significant for small and midsize shippers, to determine whether they accurately reflect higher fuel costs borne by container lines. âIf the carrier says it costs them âX,â how do we get to the point of substantiation? This will be an ongoing conversation between shippers and carriers,â he said. For their part, carriers are attempting to mitigate the impact of rising bunker fuel costs through more direct sailings and slower steaming of vessels. At the Port of Oakland, which handles agricultural exports from Californiaâs Central Valley, âcarriers are asking the terminals to work 24/7, so they spend less time in port,â said Bryan Brandes, the portâs maritime director. Peter Friedmann, executive director of the Agriculture Transportation Coalition (AgTC), noted that the impact of those fees will intensify the longer the war drags on. âGenerally, costs are going up and will continue to go up until there is an end to the war,â Friedmann said. âThe fuel surcharges will have a cascading effect on ag shippersâ costs as they are phased in.â And although the US itself is a large producer of fertilizers, growers could also face higher costs for fertilizers if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for too long, with crops that consume large quantities of ammonia and phosphates particularly vulnerable. Piling on the pressure The additional costs for shippers â and resulting drag on demand abroad â come at a time when export growth was already slowing, primarily due to Chinese import tariffs in response to duties imposed by the Trump administration. Containerized US agricultural exports grew 2.9% last year, but that was down from 7.1% growth in 2024, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Perhaps more alarming, outbound agricultural product shipments have declined at a compound annual rate of 1.7% since 2020. âWhen the impact of tariffs is a higher price that other countries donât have to deal with, that certainly diminishes our market access and encourages competitors to develop longer-term strategies to expand their market access,â said Buddy Allen, president and CEO of the American Cotton Shippers Association. Both Allen and Mike Steenhoek, executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition, said products from Brazil have largely taken the place of US cotton and soybeans in the Chinese market, creating what Steenhoek described as âconsiderable headwindsâ for exports. Mainland Chinaâs share of US agriculture exports fell to 6.2% from 15.7% in 2024 and as high as 23.7% in 2022, according to PIERS. In dollar terms, Chinese buyers purchased just $3.1 billion worth of soybeans in 2025, down from $17.9 billion the year before, Steenhoek said. The rapid shift of agricultural exports to other markets is also being felt at the port level. âSix years ago, about 70% of our cargo was tied to China. Today, itâs closer to 60%, with countries in Southeast Asia growing in importance,â said Noel Hacegaba, CEO of the Port of Long Beach. Cotton exports through Long Beach plummeted 90% last year, while soybean exports fell 95%, he said. The good news for growers is that there is growing global demand for soybeans, which move primarily in bulk ships, as well as higher-value processed soybean products like meal and oils, which tend to move in containers. Steenhoek said promising markets include the Philippines, Colombia, Mexico, Canada, Guatemala, and Vietnam. âPotentially, 2026 could be a good marketing year in terms of demand, but there are so many uncertainties ahead in terms of tariffs,â he said. âThis is an industry where you are making your commitments today for deliveries months away.â Originally published in the Journal of Commerce on May 4, 2026. Subscribe to JOC.com Register for Inland26 The must-attend conference for shippers and transportation and logistics providers moving goods from ports to inland destinations Click Here Learn more about our data and insights Click Here ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/red-sea-shipping-reopens</link><description>Red Sea shipping resumes amid reduced Houthi attacks, but renewed threats create uncertainty for shippers. Capacity increases may impact freight rates.</description><title>Red Sea shipping reopens, but renewed Houthi threats keep route uncertainty high</title><pubDate>20 February 2026 14:10:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Ines Nastali</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Research â Feb 20, 2026 Red Sea shipping reopens, but renewed Houthi threats keep route uncertainty high By Ines Nastali Container carriers are now restarting services via the Red Sea amid a continued reduction in Houthi attacks on maritime shipping, according to reports. One of the routes connects India via the Middle East with the US operated by AP Moeller Maersk, confirming earlier reports that Indian shippers will benefit from a service for reefer products. To benefit from increased traffic, Red Sea Container Terminals opened Egyptâs first semiautomated facility at Sokhna Port near the southern entrance to the Suez Canal in mid-January 2026, the Journal of Commerce reports. Sending more vessels through the Suez Canal might present a downward pressure point on freight rates as capacity is freed from the longer Cape of Good Hope diversion. While these developments might mean more capacity going through the Suez Canal in the coming months, the situation could easily change if the Houthis resume their attacks. An indicator of the volatility of the situation is CMA CGM SAâs announcement that some of its Asia-Europe services (FAL1, FAL3 and MEX) that went through the Suez Canal in 2025 will go back to transiting via the Cape of Good Hope, as a result of a âcomplex and uncertain international context,â adding to the uncertainty that shippers are facing when planning journey times and amid renewed threats of attacks by the Houthis in January 2026. The share of east-to-west shipments via the canal remains at 18.7%, close to its two-year average and well below the pre-disruption level of about 80%. According to Market Intelligence analysis, there remains a severe risk of attacks on vessels in transit in the one-year outlook if, as is likely, the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel breaks down permanently. If those attacks resume, the risk for vessels is likely to remain highest closest to, and inside, Yemeni territorial waters in areas controlled by the Houthi, particularly around Hodeidah where the Houthi likely maintains a significant arsenal of anti-ship cruise missiles, uncrewed surface vessels (USV) and uncrewed underwater vehicles (UUV). All Houthi attack incidents using USVs have been conducted within a 70-nm radius of Hodeidah. The Houthis have been using the period since the announcement of a ceasefire to rearm and increase weapons shipments via Iran and the Horn of Africa and rebuild port infrastructure and facilities around Ras Isa and Hodeidah, including new jetties and artificial island facilities to support tanker and cargo ships. Those were damaged in Israeli and US airstrikes. This aligns with a similar tactical pause in attack activity that the group adopted during the previous ceasefire in Gaza from Jan. 19âMarch 16, 2025. Egypt opens new semiautomated Red Sea terminal as Suez traffic grows Learn More ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/05/ai-throwing-wrench-into-arbitrage-machine-for-forwarding-labor</link><description>AI has the potential to cut freight forwarders&amp;apos; costs by 15-35%, boost productivity, and reshape operations, enabling higher margins and market share in logistics.</description><title>AI throwing wrench into arbitrage machine for forwarding labor</title><pubDate>28 May 2026 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Eric Johnson</name></author><content><![CDATA[ BLOG â May 28, 2026 AI throwing wrench into arbitrage machine for forwarding labor By Eric Johnson Freight forwarders donât own cargo, and they are largely reliant on the assets of ocean, air, and road capacity providers. That liminal state puts them right at the center of the debate about whether artificial intelligence will transform how logistics is conducted. Beyond the rhetoric of whether AI can functionally replace hundreds of thousands of people currently employed in operational, sales, development and administrative roles at forwarders, thereâs a more basic metric thatâs worth tracking. That is, how will AI â or, more specifically, automation enabled by AI â impact a forwarderâs cost structure? Because until recently, the money a forwarder spent per shipment boiled down in large part to how much it spent on labor to perform core tasks along the shipment lifecycle. âFor a digitally mature forwarder with decent data and workflow discipline, AI should be able to cut routine file-handling costs by roughly 15% to 35% over the next two to three years,â said Amit Maheshwari, CEO of Softlink, a provider of freight management solutions for forwarders. âOn a poor-quality, exception-heavy import file, the savings will be lower. On a clean, repeatable lane with structured inputs, the savings can be higher. âAI changes the math by shrinking the clerical piece of the work, but it does not erase local import knowledge, customer escalation, customs risk, claims handling, or delivery trouble-shooting,â Maheshwari added. A simplistic way to view this challenge is that all the tasks a forwarder needs to execute on each shipment can be visualized on a spectrum of fully manual to fully automated. But that spectrum doesnât account for the reality that forwarders have long tried to minimize their labor costs outside of automation. Those efforts sometimes come in the form of handing off work to business process outsourcing (BPO) providers, overseas agents, or employees in lower-cost regions. That interplay of optimizing what work is done where, to maximize skills and customer engagement while making sure costs are in line with business expectations, is being upended by AI. Wider margins, higher growth JP Morgan, in a February report, posited that, âwith successful deployment [of AI], the top European players can gain up to 200 [basis points] of market share and reduce staff costs by 20%, driven by higher productivity and monetizing natural attrition.â That, in turn, has the potential to help large, publicly traded forwarders reach margins of 30% to 45% and double-digit operating profit growth by 2028, the bank said. For argumentsâ sake, letâs say that a forwarder using an origin office to handle all administrative aspects of a shipment is paying $120, while that same work handled at destination would cost $180. That 50% premium is the target for AI-enabled workflow automation. âThe origin-destination spread is real,â said Jamie Andrade, senior vice president of product management at SEKO Logistics. âA lot of the client-facing work, i.e. the service and differentiation bits we donât want to offshore or automate away, sits on the destination side, and the labor differential is material. That said, it is getting eroded as costs rise [at origin]. Weâre seeing that in our own operation and with our offshore partners. And honestly, you can only shift so much to origin before service starts to suffer.â One example, from a software vendor who asked not to be identified, cited an example of a forwarding customer with nearly 100 IT and key account support staff, and 400 more employees handling basic freight forwarding operations at origin. âThey donât have a plan to reduce labor costs [via automation] because of the complexity of dealing with origin activities,â and because labor costs remain sustainable, the vendor said. âI think we will first see AI improving productivity and reducing manual labor more at the destination than at the origin,â said Hans Elmegaard, CEO of forwarding software vendor Moddule. âAt destination, people manually coordinate operational activities between customers, carriers, customs offices, trucking companies/rail services, and share information with [distribution centers] and warehouses across various fragmented datasets. AI-backed orchestration services will help freight forwarders reduce labor costs and increase accuracy for their customers.â Differentiator or table stakes? A broader question is the extent to which automation drives differentiation in a crowded market over the long term, and whether a theoretical lower cost to serve bleeds into customer pricing. Forwarding software WiseTech Global, in completely restructuring its pricing model last fall and later announcing it was reducing headcount by 30% over two years due to AI productivity gains, essentially signaled to the market that forwarders would have to reduce their cost to serve and that their customers would expect those gains to be passed through. But the danger, argues Graham Cousins, former chief strategy officer at Vanguard Logistics Services, is that automation undermines rather than enhances margin. âThe challenge is that, at scale, lower cost-to-serve is not a core differentiator, and perhaps a risk if passed on in customer pricing,â Cousins wrote in a paper on how the international logistics industry was transforming. âAI is not the bolt-on to make operatorsâ lives and workflows easier,â he wrote. âCustomer service processes must be restructured to be AI-native and ensure data coverage, not to augment existing manual operations. Procurement and low cost-to-serve are baselines, not differentiators. If it ends up in pricing, the rest of the market will follow.â So, at its core, the story of AI in forwarding is ultimately about how logistics services providers balance their current cost structure against one where automation plays a bigger role. What can be automated? âMost things along the shipment lifecycle are automatable,â said Robert Petti, CEO of forwarding software provider Prompt. â[WiseTechâs new pricing model] should have pushed people to do more automating. And the vast majority doesnât require new tech. Integrated systems and good [standard operating procedures] should reduce labor cost 30% to 50%. That should get you closer to the origin costs and maybe even lower.â Dan Bailey, CEO of forwarding workflow automation provider Nexcade, said itâs important for a forwarder to focus on a specific time horizon. âWeâve seen two times file-per-head improvements in the specific workflows we target, but weâre also heavily focused on areas with commercial benefit, like procurement and quotation, not just [operating expenditures],â he said. âOn simpler workflows itâs higher, but on an aggregate basis across the full lifecycle of all shipments, exceptions are still a primary driver of operational time and cost.â Bailey said those exceptions are impacted less in the short run by AI but are âsquarely in strike zone in the medium term,â adding that exception management was also largely unaddressed by business process outsourcing (BPO) efforts in the past. âWith automation levels of 60% to 80% of well-scoped processes, there can easily be a three- to four-times cost advantage for that specific process vis-Ã -vis lower origin per-shipment costs,â Fabian Struck, chief commercial officer of forwarding automation vendor Zauber, said. âThis advantage is respectively higher for high-wage geographies. In the long run, we can only speculate what will ultimately be possible. For now, I do not see any reasons why total end-to-end shipment costs should not go down as far as three to five times, or even more.â Low end of the curve JP Morganâs report cautioned that the forwarding industry still âsits low on the digitization curve,â with a reliance on manual processes and data that poses a risk to fully leveraging the benefits of AI for cost reduction. âWe do not expect AI to disrupt the fundamental prospects of the industry, given its exposure to physical transport and the movement of goods, with freight forwarding increasingly tapping into more complex services and moving further away from commoditized vanilla brokerage services,â the report said. The other factor for forwarders to consider is that investments in technology to automate are not likely to stay static, but in fact are likely to move in a linear fashion with usage. That may prompt some to build internally. âThatâs part of why Iâm leaning into building some of this ourselves for the easier use cases,â Andrade said. âIf I own the tooling, my costs stay flatter as we scale rather than growing in line with transaction volume. Itâs not the right answer for everyone, and you need [developer] resources and the appetite to maintain what you build. âBut weâve got that capability, and the new AI coding tooling makes it faster to stand things up than it used to be,â she added. âSo thatâs where Iâm placing my bets, at least on the BPO and automation side of the house.â This article was originally published in the Journal of Commerce on May 12, 2026. Subscribe to JOC.com Register for Inland26 The must-attend conference for shippers and transportation and logistics providers moving goods from ports to inland destinations Click Here Learn more about our data and insights Click Here ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/062426-china-issues-renewable-energy-consumption-rules-for-industry-that-include-green-hydrogen</link><description>China issued rules for the minimum consumption of renewable energy by industries on June 23 that include renewable hydrogen and its derivatives to count toward renewable energy consumption. The &amp;quot;Minimum Proportion Target for Renewable Energy Consumption and the Responsibility Weight System for Renewable Energy Power Consumption&amp;quot; -- Notice No. 42-- will take effect from Aug. 1, the National</description><title>China issues renewable energy consumption rules for industry that include green hydrogen</title><pubDate>24 June 2026 15:38:02 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Ruchira Singh</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Fertilizers, Chemicals, Renewables, Hydrogen June 24, 2026 China issues renewable energy consumption rules for industry that include green hydrogen By Ruchira Singh Editor: Alisdair Bowles Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Renewable hydrogen to count as non-electric energy Rules create demand-side obligations China issued rules for the minimum consumption of renewable energy by industries on June 23 that include renewable hydrogen and its derivatives to count toward renewable energy consumption. The "Minimum Proportion Target for Renewable Energy Consumption and the Responsibility Weight System for Renewable Energy Power Consumption" -- Notice No. 42-- will take effect from Aug. 1, the National Development and Reform Commission said. "Notably, Notice No. 42 formally recognizes renewable hydrogen, ammonia and methanol as forms of non-electric renewable energy consumption," Jingze Zhu, analyst for hydrogen at S&amp;P Global Energy Horizons, said June 24. "Provincial authorities are now required to conduct separate accounting and assessments for these products, indicating that green molecules are gradually being incorporated into China's formal compliance framework..." The use of these renewable energy molecules is also becoming an emerging legal obligation for relevant market participants, according to Zhu. Demand-side obligations Renewable consumption targets are split between power and non-power uses, NDRC said. The minimum renewable share includes both renewable electricity and non-electric renewable energy, such as low-carbon industrial fuels, hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol, it said. "Notice No. 42 creates demand-side obligations by requiring the consumption of renewable energy and green products," Zhu said. Renewable hydrogen/ammonia/ methanol used as fuels also count toward renewable energy use, according to the policy, NDRC said. Therefore, companies using renewable-derived hydrogen, ammonia, or methanol as integrated fuels can include the resulting energy in their non-electric renewable energy accounting, NDRC added. Compliance pathways Green power procurement, direct renewable supply, and green certificates are recognized compliance pathways, NDRC added. Renewable electricity actually consumed is the main basis for meeting provincial renewable power obligations, while green certificate purchases can help cover shortfalls when direct consumption is insufficient, it said. Notice No. 42 follows Notice No. 689 and together they establish a more integrated policy framework for energy transition, Zhu said. On June 15, China set a strict 2028 deadline for nine key industries to meet specified energy-efficiency benchmarks, China's state-owned news agency Xinhua reported, citing the NDRC. "The two policies [Notices] effectively close the regulatory loop between industrial decarbonization requirements and renewable energy procurement obligations," Zhu said. "In recent months, China has issued a series of policies targeting renewable energy development and hard-to-abate industries, signaling a broader energy transition framework as the country moves toward the 15th Five-Year Plan period." US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/062526-infographic-oversupply-policy-shifts-drive-thailand-i-rec-price-decline</link><description>Thailand&amp;apos;s Iâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x91;REC market has faced sharp price declines since 2024, as new PDP targets, fee cuts and rooftop quota caps drove excess supply into the system. Solar issuance surged after registration fees were halved, while hydropower prices saw temporary support under EGAT&amp;apos;s UGT1 program. By midâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x91;2025, solar peaked before falling below hydropower and biomass continued to lead issuance, more than</description><title>INFOGRAPHIC: Oversupply, policy shifts drive Thailand I-REC price decline</title><pubDate>25 June 2026 07:33:18 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Fatin shahirah Manan</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Agriculture, Energy Transition, Electric Power, Biofuels, Renewables June 25, 2026 INFOGRAPHIC: Oversupply, policy shifts drive Thailand I-REC price decline By Fatin shahirah Manan Editor: Manish Parashar Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Thailand I-REC prices fall on oversupply Tokenization emerges as next market phase Thailand's IâREC market has faced sharp price declines since 2024, as new PDP targets, fee cuts and rooftop quota caps drove excess supply into the system. Solar issuance surged after registration fees were halved, while hydropower prices saw temporary support under EGAT's UGT1 program. By midâ2025, solar peaked before falling below hydropower and biomass continued to lead issuance, more than double solar and hydropower. Trading activity has been sluggish into 2026, with oversupply weighing on demand despite new buyers entering the market, such as green hotels. Redemptions have grown steadily, led by solar certificates at 7.2 gigawatt-hours, underscoring buyer preference even as all three technologies converged at yearly lows in June. Looking ahead, tokenization projects are emerging as the next phase of market development. The delayed launch of a blockchainâbased platform in partnership with Bitkub has drawn trader attention, with SEC rules imposing a 24âmonth vintage limit on eligible certificates. While the initiative promises broader participation and transparency, thin liquidity and excess issuance continue to pressure prices, leaving the market under strain until new mechanisms take hold. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/062526-zhejiangs-blue-whale-bioenergy-obtains-china-saf-export-quota</link><description>Zhejiang&amp;apos;s Blue Whale Bioenergy has successfully been placed on a SAF export whitelist by the Chinese authorities, the company said in a WeChat post on June 25, paving the way for its first SAF shipment in late July and making it China&amp;apos;s sixth authorized SAF exporter. &amp;quot;The joint approval by the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, the National Energy Administration, and the</description><title>Zhejiang&amp;apos;s Blue Whale Bioenergy obtains China SAF export quota</title><pubDate>25 June 2026 11:56:47 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Ryan Wong</name><name>Daisy Xu</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Agriculture, Energy Transition, Refined Products, Biofuels, Renewables, Jet Fuel June 25, 2026 Zhejiang's Blue Whale Bioenergy obtains China SAF export quota By Ryan Wong and Daisy Xu Editor: Ribhu Ranjan Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Blue Whale gains China SAF export approval Company receives 305,000 mt annual quota China now has six authorized SAF exporters Zhejiang's Blue Whale Bioenergy has successfully been placed on a SAF export whitelist by the Chinese authorities, the company said in a WeChat post on June 25, paving the way for its first SAF shipment in late July and making it China's sixth authorized SAF exporter. "The joint approval by the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, the National Energy Administration, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange marks a significant milestone for the company in establishing itself as a major global supplier of SAF," the statement read. Sources close to the matter said the company was allocated a yearly export quota of around 305,000 metric tons of SAF and that a first cargo of about 10,000 mt of SAF will be shipped at the end of July. The cargo had been sold last year but could not be shipped because the company had not been placed on the whitelist, they added. The approval of Blue Whale Bioenergy's SAF exports brings the total number of producers authorized to export SAF from China to six, with an estimated total export capacity of 1.705 million mt/year. Producer Location Annual capacity (mt) Status Notes Henan Junheng Puyang, Henan 400,000 mt Operational Export quota of 240,000 mt, expanding toward 1 million/mt Shandong Sanju Eastern China 250,000 mt Operational Export quota of 158,000 mt Zhejiang Jiaao Lianyungang 372,400 mt Operational Export quota of 372,000 mt Ecoceres Jiangsu 350,000 mt Operational Export quota of 260,000 mt Shandong Haike Shandong 500,000 mt Operational Export quota of 370,000 mt Blue Whale Bioenergy Zhejiang 420,000 mt Operational Export quota of 305,000 mt, estimated Total estimated export capacity - - - 1,705,000 mt (estimated) Source: Data compiled by Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy Blue Whale's successful inclusion in the Chinese SAF export whitelist comes amid its application to the European Commission for new exporting producer treatment, and thus be subjected to lower duty rates normally accorded to companies that cooperated with an EU investigation regarding biodiesel and HVO imports from China. Operations began at Zhejiang Blue Whale Bioenergy's 500,000 mt/year unit on Dec. 15, 2025, and shipped its first cargo of about 12,000 mt renewable diesel in late January 2026. The plant can produce 420,000 mt/year of HVO/SAF. Blue Whale Bioenergy is a joint venture with a 44% interest held by Wuchan Zhongda Chemical Group, a core member of Wuchan Zhongda Group, a major Chinese bulk commodity supplier and a state-owned enterprise. Platts had also previously reported that some Chinese market participants had seen a potential delay in the issuance of the SAF export quota whitelist to the company. Data released by China's General Administration of Customs June 20 showed China exported 100,939.54 mt of SAF in May, up 34% month over month, while HVO exports were similarly up 12% at 43,636.38 mt, Platts reported previously. Jiangsu Province retained its position as the top SAF exporting Chinese province in May, almost tripling exports month over month to 70,799,19 mt. Almost two-thirds of Henan's SAF exports were headed to Belgium in May, while Shandong's SAF exports halved month over month in May. As of May, total exports this year from the country would constitute 21.2% of the estimated 1.705 million mt export quota issued by the Chinese authorities. China's SAF exports by province (in mt) April May Change (%) Henan Province 19,866.28 15,191.43 -23.53% Jiangsu Province 25,087.63 70,799.19 +182.21% Shandong Province 30,313.03 14,948.90 -50.68% Total 75,267 100,939 +34.11% Source: General Administration of Customs US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/062326-interview-germany-hydrogen-rules-japan-auctions-to-spur-ammonia-trade-am-green-ammonia-ceo</link><description>Regulatory momentum in Europe and Asia is creating concrete demand signals for renewable ammonia trade in 2026, offering a potential inflection point for an industry grappling with sluggish adoption, Indian renewable ammonia producer AM Green Ammonia&amp;apos;s CEO Gautam Reddy told Platts, part of S&amp;amp;P Global Energy. Germany&amp;apos;s adoption of renewable fuel of non-biological origin hydrogen mandates and</description><title>INTERVIEW: Germany hydrogen rules, Japan auctions to spur ammonia trade: AM Green Ammonia CEO</title><pubDate>23 June 2026 03:39:25 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Vipul Garg</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Fertilizers, Chemicals, Energy Transition, Renewables, Hydrogen June 23, 2026 INTERVIEW: Germany hydrogen rules, Japan auctions to spur ammonia trade: AM Green Ammonia CEO By Vipul Garg Editor: Debiprasad Nayak Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Japan awards 516 MW hydrogen, ammonia power capacity AM Green's Kakinada plant targets July 2028 commissioning Kandla, Tuticorin expansion plans adjusted Regulatory momentum in Europe and Asia is creating concrete demand signals for renewable ammonia trade in 2026, offering a potential inflection point for an industry grappling with sluggish adoption, Indian renewable ammonia producer AM Green Ammonia's CEO Gautam Reddy told Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy. Germany's adoption of renewable fuel of non-biological origin hydrogen mandates and Japan's third long-term decarbonization auction are providing tangible commercial opportunities despite broader concerns over slow demand creation, Reddy said in an interview. Potential International Maritime Organization adoption of Net Zero Framework could prove a "game changer for the industry and create markets across the globe," he said June 20. EU's Renewable Energy Directives III contains a series of key provisions to accelerate renewable energy deployment in the EU, setting an overall renewable energy target of at least 42.5% by 2030 at the EU level. It also set binding targets for hydrogen-based renewable fuels of non-biological origin, requiring RFNBOs to account for at least 1% of total energy supplied to the transport sector by 2030, and at least 42% of hydrogen in industry, rising to 60% from 2035. While Germany adopted the RFNBO targets in April, France has yet to implement the mandates. "We see tangible positive developments in 2026. Germany adopting the RFNBO mandate and Japan awarding LTDA 3 [Long-term decarbonization power supply] auctions are clear data points," Reddy said. "We continue to see EU and Japan as the key markets." In May, Japan awarded 516 megawatts of hydrogen and ammonia-based decarbonized power capacity in its third long-term decarbonization power supply auction, with hydrogen mono-firing projects winning support for the first time as the country broadens its strategy beyond ammonia co-firing to meet decarbonization targets. AM Green has started construction of a 500,000 metric tons/year renewable ammonia plant in Kakinada, Andhra Pradesh, targeting commissioning in July 2028, followed by a second 500,000 mt/year phase six to nine months later. The timeline remains on track despite macroeconomic headwinds, including US dollar appreciation against the rupee, which Reddy said would have "some minor impact" on the project cost and timeline, alongside other global economic factors. AM Green has adjusted its initial expansion plans for projects in India's Kandla and Tuticorin in response to slower-than-expected EU policy implementation, though the company's 1 million mt/year Kakinada project remains unchanged. "While the adoption has been slow, it is going in the right direction. We remain positive on the EU," Reddy said. Supply scarcity offsets demand lag While demand creation has lagged initial industry expectations, the pipeline of competing projects capable of meeting strict EU sustainability requirements remains even more limited, creating favorable supply-demand dynamics for developers that reach the final investment decision, according to Reddy. AM Green achieved FID for its Kakinada facility in 2024, while targeting a mid-2026 commissioning back then. The RFNBO framework sets strict criteria for renewable hydrogen and derivatives, including requirements for additionality, temporal and geographical correlation with renewable power generation, and proof of sustainability through EU-approved voluntary schemes. The geographical correlation requirement poses challenges for many Indian projects, as it requires renewable energy and the electrolyzer to be in the same or adjacent bidding zones with equal or higher power prices AM Green's integrated approach includes pumped storage hydropower projects that provide round-the-clock renewable power to its electrolyzers, which the company views as a competitive advantage in meeting RFNBO requirements while controlling input costs. Buyer interest is now equally driven by energy security and decarbonization priorities, particularly following the Middle East conflict that has heightened supply chain resilience concerns in both Europe and Asia, according to Reddy. "Energy security and resource diversification have become as important as decarbonization now vis-Ã -vis green hydrogen and derivatives," he said. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/podcasts/energycents/062526-sea-change-offshore-wind-sector-adjusts-development-plans-as-costs-rise</link><description>More than 90 GW of offshore wind capacity has been installed globally, split almost equally between Europe and China. Development in many parts of the world has slowed as rising interest rates and wavering policy support pressure new-project economics. S&amp;amp;P Global Energy expert Andrei Utkin joins hosts Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys to discuss the global landscape for offshore wind and flag areas</description><title>Sea change: Offshore wind sector adjusts development plans as costs rise</title><pubDate>25 June 2026 09:20:45 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Samantha Humphreys</name><name>Hill Vaden</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Electric Power, Energy Transition, Renewables June 25, 2026 Sea change: Offshore wind sector adjusts development plans as costs rise Featuring Samantha Humphreys and Hill Vaden HIGHLIGHTS 90 GW offshore wind installed globally Rising rates slow new project development Expert discusses next wave of sector growth More than 90 GW of offshore wind capacity has been installed globally, split almost equally between Europe and China. Development in many parts of the world has slowed as rising interest rates and wavering policy support pressure new-project economics. S&amp;P Global Energy expert Andrei Utkin joins hosts Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys to discuss the global landscape for offshore wind and flag areas that will drive the next wave of sector growth. Learn more about S&amp;P Global Energy coverage at: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en Also on Apple Podcasts | Spotify US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/refined-products/062426-europe-needs-policy-flexibility-to-bridge-saf-supply-gaps-horizons</link><description>Europe needs policy flexibility as its sustainable aviation fuel market matures, with ambitious SAF mandates meeting feedstock constraints and supply shortfalls, analysts at S&amp;amp;P Global Energy Horizons said during a June 24 webinar. Under Horizons&amp;apos; base case scenario, the EU is forecast to face a shortfall of more than 17 million mt of SAF by 2050 against its mandated 70% blend rate, with gaps</description><title>Europe needs policy flexibility to bridge SAF supply gaps: Horizons</title><pubDate>24 June 2026 16:27:54 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Thomas Washington</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Agriculture, Energy Transition, Refined Products, Biofuels, Renewables, Jet Fuel June 24, 2026 Europe needs policy flexibility to bridge SAF supply gaps: Horizons By Thomas Washington Editor: Alisdair Bowles Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS EU forecasts 17 million mt SAF shortfall by 2050 Feedstock limits constrain global production Main Hormuz effect on SAF is higher transport costs Europe needs policy flexibility as its sustainable aviation fuel market matures, with ambitious SAF mandates meeting feedstock constraints and supply shortfalls, analysts at S&amp;P Global Energy Horizons said during a June 24 webinar. Under Horizons' base case scenario, the EU is forecast to face a shortfall of more than 17 million mt of SAF by 2050 against its mandated 70% blend rate, with gaps beginning to emerge as early as 2030, particularly for synthetic aviation fuel or eSAF, Nathan Nguyen, principal analyst, biofuels analytics at S&amp;P Global Energy Horizons, said. "I think all of this points to a need for policy flexibility," Nguyen said. "As the industry matures, that will be essential to managing compliance." Europe's SAF demand is expected to grow from around 1 million metric tons in 2025 to 3 million mt by 2030 and 21 million mt by 2050, driven by quotas and steep noncompliance penalties. Policy flexibility could include changes to quotas, multipliers, enforcement mechanisms or feedstock eligibility rules, he said. The EU's ReFuelEU Aviation mandate, which came into force this year, requires aviation fuel suppliers to blend a minimum 2% SAF or face penalties. The quota rises every five years to reach 70% by 2050. The European Commission will not alter its ReFuelEU Aviation framework during next year's scheduled evaluation, which will produce a report rather than propose revisions, Jo Dardenne, policy officer at the directorate-general for Mobility and transport, said at Sustainable Aviation Fuels Summit in April. The International Air Transport Association forecasts it should be possible to produce around 400 million mt of SAF in 2050; this is 100 million mt of SAF short of what will be needed then, IATA said last September. Feedstock constraints The fundamental challenge facing SAF production globally is feedstock availability, with Europe unable to keep pace with demand growth, Horizons analysts said. Used cooking oil supply from China amounts to only about 6 million mt/year, equivalent to a small to medium-sized refinery, Ji Yang Lum, associate director for biofuels long-term analytics at Horizons, said. First-generation feedstocks such as seed oils and food crops face scalability limits, while second-generation feedstocks, including UCO, are facing limited supply due to competition between the maritime, road and aviation sectors, he said. Europe is expected to need more than double the amount of waste-based Annex 9A biofuels by 2030 compared with 2025 levels, reaching 8 million to 8.5 million mt, with most locked into renewable diesel production, Nguyen said. The region will remain a net importer of both renewable diesel and SAF. Global SAF demand is forecast to reach 100 million mt/year by 2060, representing roughly a 19% blend rate globally, well short of net-zero targets, Lum said. The aviation sector remains one of the hardest to decarbonize because, unlike maritime transport, it lacks alternative fuels at scale. Industry concerns The ReFuelEU Aviation policy faces implementation challenges, with industry calling for revisions to make quotas increase on a linear rather than stepwise basis to provide more certainty for project developers seeking long-term offtake contracts. Airlines are concerned about affordability, given slim margins and higher underlying jet fuel costs, leading to calls for a review of targets and penalties or greater price support to bridge the cost gap between SAF and conventional jet fuel, Nguyen said. The European Commission is conducting its first formal review of the ReFuelEU mandate in 2027. Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, assessed SAF on a CIF basis in Northwest Europe at $2,629.25/mt June 23, compared to $923.25/mt for jet fuel on an equivalent basis. Despite the challenges, Europe has a strong pipeline of renewable diesel and SAF plants, including co-processing projects, greenfield developments and refinery conversions, with renewable diesel supply expected to double over the next five years, Horizons analysts said. Modest Hormuz impact The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is having a limited impact on SAF flows globally, with the main effect being increased transportation costs rather than major supply disruptions, according to Horizons analysts. The increased transportation costs are not a significant factor compared with the overall price of SAF, particularly for flows from China and Singapore to Europe, Lum said. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/blog/energy-transition/062426-et-highlights-eu-dutch-ccs-rotterdam-brazil-bess-china-emission</link><description>Energy transition highlights: Our editors and analysts bring you the biggest stories from the industry this week, from renewables to storage to carbon prices.</description><title>ET Highlights: EU&amp;apos;s largest CCS project advances in Rotterdam, Brazilâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99;s first BESS auction, Chinaâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99;s 3-year emissions plan</title><pubDate>23 June 2026 20:05:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Staff </name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Renewables, Emissions, Carbon June 24, 2026 ET Highlights: EU's largest CCS project advances in Rotterdam, Brazilâs first BESS auction, Chinaâs 3-year emissions plan Energy Transition Highlights: Our editors and analysts bring together the biggest stories in the industry this week, from renewables to storage to carbon prices. Top story Dutch Porthos CCS project marks construction progress despite delays On the western tip of the Dutch Port of Rotterdam, nestled between a giant container terminal and the Gate LNG facility, engineers are constructing what will be the EU's largest carbon and capture project. From the top of artificial dunes -- built to protect the reclaimed land of Maasvlakte from the sea -- you can make out platform P18-A in the North Sea. Once a gas production platform, it has now been repurposed as a CO2 injection platform to store captured carbon in the former gas reservoir below the seabed. Onshore at Maasvlakte, construction of the three compressor stations for the Porthos CCS project is progressing, with the project set to capture and store 2.5 million metric tons of CO2/year from 2027. Housing for three more compressors is also being readied for the Aramis CCS project, which will store about 10 times that amount. Porthos -- a joint venture between EBN, Gasunie and the Port of Rotterdam Authority -- has experienced setbacks, and the consortium recently pushed back the start date from late 2026. The delays stemmed from late engineering changes and a lack of resources, Porthos construction manager Reinier Lissenberg told Platts during a May tour of the facility, though he noted that such challenges were to be expected for first-of-a-kind projects such as this. Benchmark of the Week Eur80.64/mt Platts EU ETS allowance assessment on June 19, up over 4% on the week to the highest since early February. Explore Platts Energy Transition Price Assessments Editor's Picks: Free and premium content SPGlobal.com/energy Wind and solar back Brazilâs debut battery storage auction Brazilian wind and solar power generators welcomed an announcement of the country's first auction for battery energy storage systems, a move expected to mark Brazil's entry into the technology and tackle curtailments. Brazil's Ministry of Mines and Energy announced on June 3 two capacity reserve auctions for battery energy storage systems scheduled for Dec. 2 and Dec. 4. The contracts will have a 15-year duration, with supply expected to begin in 2028. INTERVIEW: India's renewables push to accelerate, needs faster grid build-out India's renewable energy capacity is poised for continued rapid expansion, but sustaining momentum would require prioritizing faster grid development, timely power purchase agreements and the integration of storage solutions, Avaada Group Founder and Chairman Vineet Mittal said. The challenges hindering faster renewable energy deployment in India persist, though they are becoming more manageable as the ecosystem matures, according to Mittal, who said renewable energy curtailment and land availability were also barriers to faster renewable energy expansion. S&amp;P Global Energy Core Clean hydrogen pipeline has shrunk despite global energy supply pressures: IEA The International Energy Agency has reduced its 2030 forecast for clean hydrogen production by about 40%, despite renewed interest in alternative fuels as an energy security strategy. Global production capacity for low-emission hydrogen is now expected to total 6 million metric tons in 2030, based on the number of projects with committed capital or a "strong likelihood" of becoming operational, according to an IEA report released June 18. China launches 3-year plan to cut emissions in key industries China has launched a three-year action plan to boost energy efficiency and carbon reduction upgrades across nine heavy industries, the National Development and Reform Commission said. The NDRC said the campaign will target steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, methanol and coal power sectors starting in 2026. ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/061726-dutch-porthos-ccs-project-marks-construction-progress-despite-delays</link><description>On the western tip of the Dutch Port of Rotterdam, nestled between a giant container terminal and the Gate LNG facility, engineers are constructing what will be the EU&amp;apos;s largest carbon and capture project. From the top of artificial dunes -- built to protect the reclaimed land of Maasvlakte from the sea -- you can make out platform P18-A in the North Sea. Once a gas production platform, it has now</description><title>Dutch Porthos CCS project marks construction progress despite delays</title><pubDate>17 June 2026 11:58:47 GMT</pubDate><author><name>James Burgess</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Natural Gas, Hydrogen, Carbon, Emissions June 17, 2026 Dutch Porthos CCS project marks construction progress despite delays By James Burgess Editor: Surbhi Prasad Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS EU's largest CCS project advances at Rotterdam Porthos to store 2.5 mil mt/year CO2 from 2027 Subsidies bridge cost gap between CCS, EU ETS On the western tip of the Dutch Port of Rotterdam, nestled between a giant container terminal and the Gate LNG facility, engineers are constructing what will be the EU's largest carbon and capture project. From the top of artificial dunes -- built to protect the reclaimed land of Maasvlakte from the sea -- you can make out platform P18-A in the North Sea. Once a gas production platform, it has now been repurposed as a CO2 injection platform to store captured carbon in the former gas reservoir below the seabed. Onshore at Maasvlakte, construction of the three compressor stations for the Porthos CCS project is progressing, with the project set to capture and store 2.5 million metric tons of CO2/year from 2027. Housing for three more compressors is also being readied for the Aramis CCS project, which will store about 10 times that amount. Porthos -- a joint venture between EBN, Gasunie and the Port of Rotterdam Authority -- has experienced setbacks, and the consortium recently pushed back the start date from late 2026. The delays had come from late changes in engineering and a lack of resources, Porthos construction manager Reinier Lissenberg told Platts during a tour of the facility in May, though he noted that such challenges were to be expected for first-of-a-kind projects such as this. Lissenberg said the actual engineering construction was relatively straightforward; the project's design was the most challenging aspect. Blue hydrogen production Shell, ExxonMobil, Air Liquide and Air Products are the customers for the 2.5 million metric ton/year facility, and are all building capture units at their refineries and industrial gas plants. Porthos will operate for 15 years before reaching capacity of about 37 million mt, and will then be permanently sealed. Air Products and Air Liquide are both constructing carbon capture projects retrofitted onto their respective hydrogen production facilities in Rotterdam, each of around 100,000 mt/year capacity. The plants will be the largest CCS-enabled hydrogen production facilities in Europe, supplying existing refinery and chemicals customers in the region. A Porthos spokesperson said the project would help cut Rotterdam's emissions by 10%. Porthos is just one part of Rotterdam's decarbonization plans, with a hydrogen network also under development, and several companies carrying out substantial efficiency drives to cut emissions too. Rotterdam handles 13% of Europe's energy consumption and is positioning itself as a hub for the energy transition, with 7.4 GW of offshore wind capacity set to connect to the port by 2032 and plans for 2-2.5 GW of electrolysis capacity, Port of Rotterdam CEO Boudewijn Siemons told reporters at the World Hydrogen Summit in May. Under pressure The compressor station will receive CO2 from the emitters via an onshore pipeline at 30 bar, increasing the pressure to around 130 bar for the Porthos store, before pumping it through a 1-meter-diameter offshore pipeline tunneled under the sea wall to the injection platform. Aramis CCS could store 22 million metric tons/year of CO2 from 2030, with a planned final investment decision in 2027. Investors EBN and Gasunie opened a tendering process for the offshore pipeline in November, after Shell and TotalEnergies stepped back from the project earlier in 2025. The pipeline for Aramis would use a higher pressure still, sending CO2 a longer distance to the storage site. Aramis could also receive liquid CO2 by tanker at the planned CO2next terminal. And a group of Dutch and German companies signed a cross-border pipeline cooperation agreement earlier in June to link German emitters to the Aramis store. Project economics Surplus heat from the compressor station will be sent to the Gate LNG terminal to vaporize incoming natural gas. The buildings for Porthos are scheduled to be finished by the end of 2026, with a test phase commencing early in 2027 ahead of commissioning operations. Construction started in early 2024, and the offshore pipeline was laid on the seabed in 2025, with completion of the well conversion for CO2 storage in January 2026. The project received Eur102 million in EU funding, with total investment of Eur1.3 billion, a spokesperson said. The Dutch energy ministry-commissioned Xodus study estimates Porthos transport and storage costs at around Eur50/mtCO2, while subsidies reduce the cost to customers. Emitters receive a subsidy to bridge the gap between EU carbon prices and full CCS costs. Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, assessed nearest December EU ETS CO2 allowances at Eur79.91/mt on June 16. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/defense-brief-european-defense-spendings-battle-with-fragmentation-s101692780</link><description>This report does not constitute a rating action. Rising European defense spending has been prompted by a shift from U.S.-led multilateralism and &amp;quot;peace dividends&amp;quot; to heightened geopolitical volatility. S&amp;amp;P Global Ratings expects defense budgets to grow unevenly among European nations due to political and fiscal fragmentation. Defense companies will be the immediate beneficiaries of increased spending, while sovereigns will likely see little near-term GDP growth and may face unpopular budget trad</description><title>Defense Brief: European Defense Spending&amp;apos;s Battle With Fragmentation</title><pubDate>24 June 2026 09:18:11 GMT</pubDate></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/credit-cycle-indicator-q3-2026-middle-east-conflict-shadows-credit-outlook-s101691780</link><description>This report does not constitute a rating action. S&amp;amp;P Global Ratings&amp;apos; Credit Cycle Indicators (CCIs) monitor buildups and corrections in leverage and asset prices over the medium term, as well as financing conditions. They do not directly capture or predict shifts in government policies, geopolitics, or trade, which are heightened risk factors in the global economy today. Nevertheless, we use these tools to gauge developments and turning points in the credit cycle as part of our holistic analysis</description><title>Credit Cycle Indicator Q3 2026: Middle East Conflict Shadows Credit Outlook</title><pubDate>23 June 2026 17:34:45 GMT</pubDate></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/economic-outlook-asia-pacific-q3-2026-ai-exposed-markets-to-outperform-s101691931</link><description>S&amp;amp;P Global Ratings believes there is a high degree of unpredictability around the duration and scale of the Middle East war and its potential effect on commodity prices, supply chains, economies, and credit conditions. As a result, our baseline forecasts carry a significant amount of uncertainty. As situations evolve, we will gauge the macro and credit materiality of potential shifts and reassess our guidance accordingly. This report does not constitute a rating action. The Asia-Pacific economic</description><title>Economic Outlook Asia-Pacific Q3 2026: AI-Exposed Markets To Outperform</title><pubDate>24 June 2026 00:41:55 GMT</pubDate></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/062326-uk-hydrogen-ccs-sectors-await-direction-from-new-prime-minister</link><description>The resignation of Keir Starmer as UK prime minister has created further uncertainty for the country&amp;apos;s low-carbon hydrogen sector, bringing the prospect of further delays to key funding and policy decisions, though the favorite to replace him could give the industry a boost. Starmer announced his resignation June 22, ending a two-year tenure marked by an aggressive push to decarbonize Britain&amp;apos;s</description><title>UK hydrogen, CCS sectors await direction from new prime minister</title><pubDate>23 June 2026 16:58:21 GMT</pubDate><author><name>James Burgess</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Hydrogen June 23, 2026 UK hydrogen, CCS sectors await direction from new prime minister By James Burgess Editor: Meghan Gordon Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS UK hydrogen sector awaits funding decisions Starmer's exit creates policy uncertainty The resignation of Keir Starmer as UK prime minister has created further uncertainty for the country's low-carbon hydrogen sector, bringing the prospect of further delays to key funding and policy decisions, though the favorite to replace him could give the industry a boost. Starmer announced his resignation June 22, ending a two-year tenure marked by an aggressive push to decarbonize Britain's power sector and by persistent concerns over high energy costs. Energy Secretary Ed Miliband has led a strong drive to increase the country's renewable power generation, and continued policies from the previous government to roll out low-carbon hydrogen and carbon capture and storage projects. The UK clean hydrogen and CCS sectors have suffered a series of setbacks and delays, some caused by political uncertainty. There was a first delay to hydrogen project funding decisions after the Labor government won the last election in July 2024, followed by renewed commitments to the sector, and a funding pledge for CCS. However, the industry is still awaiting a delayed hydrogen policy update, first promised by the end of 2025, and progress on a second round of CCS cluster funding has stalled. "The UK's CCUS sector has made significant strides forward, with the first two clusters in Teesside and the North West and North Wales now in delivery," Olivia Powis, CEO of the Carbon Capture and Storage Association, said in a June 23 statement. "The CCSA remains committed to working closely with the government to build on this progress and maintain momentum." The winners of the country's second electrolytic hydrogen allocation round are also still awaiting the results, following the shortlisting of 27 projects in April 2025. Industry representatives have repeatedly called for urgent action to avoid delays in investment. "We still do not have a confirmed date for either the Hydrogen Allocation Round 2, or the Hydrogen Strategy refresh," Hydrogen UK CEO Clare Jackson told Platts by email on June 23. "This is holding up investment and has a clear opportunity cost to UK plc." Jackson called on the next prime minister "to create the policy certainty the industry needs as soon as possible." The Hydrogen Energy Association, a fellow industry group, echoed the call. "The hydrogen sector is committed, capable and ready to deliver investment, skilled jobs and long-term benefits for the UK's energy security, industrial competitiveness and net zero ambitions," HEA CEO Emma Guthrie told Platts by email on June 23. Hydrogen-friendly successor? Starmer's departure and the contest to appoint a successor are likely to further stall decision-making in the short term. But the leading contender to be Starmer's successor, former Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, has form for supporting hydrogen projects, political consultancy Beyond2050 said. "Burnham has historically been engaged with, and supportive of, the UK's hydrogen sector," the group said in an email on June 19. "Greater Manchester Combined Authority has had its own Hydrogen Strategy since 2021, and a refreshed version was consulted last year (now running from 2025-2030)." Beyond2050 also noted that Burnham had been supportive of Carlton Power's planned renewable hydrogen production site in Trafford, in the Greater Manchester area, which has received funding under HAR1. Burnham confirmed his intention to run for leader shortly after Starmer resigned. Miliband is also touted as a possible finance minister in a Burnham government, which could lead to continued backing for clean energy projects. Guthrie said the HEA hoped for progress on HAR2 and the publication of the updated hydrogen strategy. "The sector is now awaiting the Invitation to Offer stage, with many companies relying on this next milestone to progress projects and unlock investment decisions," she said, noting an updated strategy would provide "important long-term direction for the industry." US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/natural-gas/062326-un-chief-urges-ai-firms-to-disclose-environmental-impact-calls-for-faster-methane-action</link><description>UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called on artificial intelligence companies to publicly disclose the environmental footprint of their data centers and power them entirely with renewable energy by 2030, linking surging electricity demand from AI to the broader climate crisis driven by fossil fuel dependence. The appeal, delivered during a keynote address at London Climate Action Week on June</description><title>UN chief urges AI firms to disclose environmental impact, calls for faster methane action</title><pubDate>23 June 2026 12:44:57 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Eklavya Gupte</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Emissions June 23, 2026 UN chief urges AI firms to disclose environmental impact, calls for faster methane action By Eklavya Gupte Editor: Ribhu Ranjan Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS AI water use could match needs of 1.3 billion Africans Canada, EU back 30% methane cut target by 2030 G20 must lead emissions peak, fossil phase-out UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called on artificial intelligence companies to publicly disclose the environmental footprint of their data centers and power them entirely with renewable energy by 2030, linking surging electricity demand from AI to the broader climate crisis driven by fossil fuel dependence. The appeal, delivered during a keynote address at London Climate Action Week on June 23, forms part of a six-point plan to accelerate the clean energy transition as the conflict in the Middle East underscores the vulnerability of oil-dependent economies. "It's time to come clean," Guterres said, urging major AI firms to "measure and publicly disclose the full environmental impact" by reporting the carbon, water and land footprints of their operations. Guterres said AI data centers already consume more electricity than most nations, with water use projected to match the basic needs of all 1.3 billion residents of sub-Saharan Africa by 2030 if growth continues unchecked. The UN chief's intervention comes as shipping disruptions linked to the conflict involving Iran, Israel and the US have exposed the fragility of global energy supply chains reliant on fossil fuels. Guterres said the climate crisis and energy sovereignty challenges share a common root in oil dependence and require a unified response centered on clean energy, adaptation and climate justice. "These crises may seem separate but they share the same destructive origin: fossil fuels. And they demand the same answer: a fast, fair transition to clean energy and a surge in adaptation, resilience and climate justice for those already facing climate harm," he said. "The transition itself is no longer in question. It will be either managed or chaotic, fair or unequal, a source of stability or of greater division, and these choices are still ours to make." Methane in focus Central to Guterres' plan is a global call to action on methane. He said emissions must peak immediately and fall steeply this decade to reach net zero by 2050, with the G20 group of wealthy nations leading the effort as they account for roughly 80% of global emissions. The UN chief outlined nine priority actions by 2030 targeting the three largest methane-emitting sectors: fossil fuels, agriculture and waste. The measures include fixing leaks and ending routine flaring in the fossil fuel sector, producing food more sustainably while reducing food loss and waste, and building cleaner, low-methane waste systems in cities and communities worldwide. "The world phased out leaded gasoline. We eliminated ozone-depleting chemicals. Methane pollution must be next," Guterres said, adding that delivering the actions will require stronger political leadership, international cooperation and a major increase in methane finance this decade. The UN also released a report alongside the call to action, explaining that the fossil fuel sector accounts for the largest share of methane mitigation potential by 2030 and offers the fastest, most cost-effective reduction opportunities. "If all technically feasible measures were implemented, 72% of the total 2030 mitigation potential lies in the fossil fuel sector, 18% in the agriculture sector and 10% in the waste sector," the report said. "Some 72% of the global methane mitigation potential by 2030 lies with the G20." Methane is a much more powerful climate pollutant than carbon dioxide, with estimates suggesting it is more than 80 times more potent than CO2 over a 20-year time frame. The energy sector -- including oil, natural gas, coal and bioenergy -- accounts for nearly 40% of methane emissions from human activity. Canada and the EU, co-conveners of the Global Methane Pledge, backed the call in a joint statement issued also on June 23. The pledge, launched in 2021, commits 159 participating countries and the EU to reducing global methane emissions by at least 30% from 2020 levels by 2030. The co-conveners said achieving that target is crucial for meeting overall climate goals under the Paris Agreement, but acknowledged that accelerated efforts are needed. "While urgent action is needed across all sources of methane, globally, the largest potential for immediate methane reductions is in the fossil fuel sector," Canada and the EU said. They pledged to promote innovation and implement strong regulatory frameworks to drive methane abatement, accelerate clean technology uptake and support energy security. The statement noted that methane emissions reductions can contribute to energy security in tight global markets, adding that "every cubic meter of methane emitted heats the planet instead of a home." US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/natural-gas/062226-european-energy-exchange-revises-eu-ets-auction-calendar-as-funding-target-partially-hit</link><description>The European Energy Exchange has cut EU Allowance auction volumes for the remainder of 2026 after an EU recovery fund reached its revenue target, tightening supply in a carbon market awaiting policy clarity from the European Commission in mid-July. EEX said June 22 it has adjusted its 2026 auction calendar following the closure of the Member States Recovery and Resilience Facility by the</description><title>European Energy Exchange revises EU ETS auction calendar as funding target partially hit</title><pubDate>22 June 2026 19:25:19 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Irina Breilean</name><name>Eklavya Gupte</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Carbon, Emissions June 22, 2026 European Energy Exchange revises EU ETS auction calendar as funding target partially hit By Irina Breilean and Eklavya Gupte Editor: Benjamin Morse Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Auction calendar sees 11.4 million EUA downward adjustment EUA prices trading at highest levels since early Feb EC expects Innovation Fund RRF to be hit mid-July further tightening supply The European Energy Exchange has cut EU Allowance auction volumes for the remainder of 2026 after an EU recovery fund reached its revenue target, tightening supply in a carbon market awaiting policy clarity from the European Commission in mid-July. EEX said June 22 it has adjusted its 2026 auction calendar following the closure of the Member States Recovery and Resilience Facility by the Commission, with the volume reductions taking effect immediately. The exchange warned that further supply changes are expected due to regular intra-year adjustments to the Market Stability Reserve as well as the upcoming closure of the Innovation Fund Recovery and Resilience Facility. EU daily auction volumes were adjusted downward to 2.8175 million allowances for the period leading up to Aug. 31, 2026, from 3.1985 million for June 1-22. German and Polish auction volumes will remain unchanged. "The Eur8 billion revenue target for MS-RRF has been reached after a cumulative auctioning of 111,455,000 allowances," the European Commission said June 22. "Since the beginning of the year, each auction by the common auction platform included 381,000 allowances allocated to MS-RRF." Auction volumes for the 2026 period will now total 559.884 million allowances, down from 571.288 million previously â a reduction of 11.4 million allowances. The supply adjustments come as EU carbon prices have been trading at over four-month highs, supported by news of the US-Iran agreement and technical buying signals. Platts assessed EU Allowances for December 2026 at Eur81.37/mtCO2e ($93.96/mtCO2e) on June 22, the highest since Feb. 9. REPowerEU The volume adjustments stem from the cessation of the MS RRF under Article 10e(3) of the EU's Emissions Trading System Directive. The facility was established to help member states finance their recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic while accelerating the transition to clean energy. The MS RRF is also one of the two funding streams for achieving REPowerEU plans. The pot hit its Eur8 billion revenue target on June 22. The second funding stream â the Innovation Fund RRF â is targeting Eur12 billion in revenue, with the market expecting this to be achieved in the coming sessions. "Based on current price levels, the second leg of emission allowances allocated to the Recovery and Resilience Facility is expected to reach its revenue target mid-July," the European Commission said June 22. "A similar adjustment of the auction calendar will then take place, with the suspension of the auctioning of 571,000 allowances (the IF-RRF auction volume) in each auction from the common auction platform from mid-July to 31 August," the Commission added. REpowerEU plans were introduced in 2022 to fund Europe's energy independence from Russia and finance the green transition. The plans earmarked a total investment of Eur300 billion in renewable investments, with Eur20 billion worth of allowances under the EU Emission Trading System injected into the market to help generate revenues. The initial cutoff for phasing out the additional volumes was set for Aug. 31, but high carbon prices in the fourth quarter of 2025 and at the start of 2026 have accelerated revenue generation. If the target revenue is reached before Aug. 31, the subsequent auctions of allowances must be immediately suspended, according to the EC. Earlier in May, the European Energy Exchange published a revised EUA auction calendar, adding 40 million allowances to the market in the second half of 2026 to help raise revenue for the Social Climate Fund, a financial mechanism designed to support vulnerable households. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/blog/french-investors-are-becoming-more-vigilant</link><description>French institutional investors are adopting a more guarded stance. This indicates that current market conditions may not fully capture underlying risks. </description><title>Investor Pulse: French Investors Are Becoming More Vigilant</title><pubDate>12 May 2026 17:04:00 GMT</pubDate><content><![CDATA[ 12 May 2026 Investor Pulse: French Investors Are Becoming More Vigilant Authored by Claudio Viscomi Overview French institutional investors are adopting a more guarded stance. This indicates that current market conditions may not fully capture underlying risks. While financial conditions remain broadly supportive, investors are shifting their focus toward medium-term risks, structural vulnerabilities, and potential gaps between macroeconomic stress and market pricing. Overall investor sentiment is characterized by a tension between short-term stability and long-term vulnerability. While stable credit markets underpin resilience over the near term, concerns are rising over the delayed materialization of risks, particularly in credit and private markets. Additionally, investors pay more attention to sector and geographic exposures. What we heard Medium-term risks are coming to the fore Investors are shifting their focus from short-term volatility to the long-term effect of geopolitical and energy shocks, and are increasingly moving toward scenario-based analysis. Key concerns include rising pressure on corporate profitability and earnings visibility, an increase in default risk in the case of prolonged stress, and uncertainty about how long energy shocks will last and how they will affect the broader economy. Uncertainty about market signals increases Mixed or inconsistent signals make traditional market indicators harder to interpret. This is underpinned by uncertainty about interest rate dynamics and yield curves, alongside limited visibility of forward-looking macro signals, particularly in rates and foreign exchange markets. Investors are therefore shifting from conventional indicators toward a more cautious, judgment-based approach. Central bank policy comes under scrutiny Investors have started to question the effectiveness of central banks' policy actions and see them as a source of uncertainty rather than stabilization. Among the main concerns are the potential acceleration of an economic slowdown in Europe due to policy tightening, the limited ability of monetary policy to address supply-driven inflation, and potentially less aggressive tightening than current market pricing implies. Credit markets might be less stable than they seem Financing conditions remain generally supportive, with spreads widening only moderately. Immediate stress is limited and there are no signs of widespread ratings pressure or liquidity events. However, this resilience is raising concerns about a potential disconnect between macro conditions and financial markets. Key risks include the capacity of sovereigns and corporates to absorb shocks, the possibility of sudden repricing due to delayed adjustments, and potential spillovers into the wider financial system. Sector selectivity is up Investors are adopting a highly selective approach. Sectors that are most vulnerable to current pressures include energy-intensive industries (margin pressure), transport and consumer-related sectors (sensitive to fuel and input costs), and agribusinesses (fertilizer supply volatility). Investors are increasingly reassessing their regional exposure and view Asia as more sensitive to energy dependence and supply chain vulnerabilities than Europe. Private credit risks remain elusive Even though private credit appears calm on the surface, it could become a central concern for investors--not due to immediate stress but because of structural vulnerabilities, such as limited transparency and weak mark-to-market mechanisms. According to investors, private credit may not trigger a financial crisis but could amplify it. Investors increasingly emphasize tail-risk scenarios. They note that systemic risk would most likely emerge from institutional balance sheets, particularly insurers, if they faced a combination of illiquidity, regulatory constraints, and sudden liquidity needs. Additionally, extensions and restructurings to "smooth" returns may only delay potential losses instead of eliminating them. This could lead to dislocation and concentrated losses over time. Risk exposure differs across regions. While European exposures remain contained and nonsystemic, the scale of the U.S. market--coupled with bank involvement and a broader investor base--has led to more investor vigilance. S&amp;Pâs analyses, including ratings, are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed, and are not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities, and should not be relied on when making investment or other business decisions. S&amp;P obtains information from sources it believes to be reliable, but does not audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of information it receives. S&amp;Pâs opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security. Please read our full disclaimer. ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/sustainability-insights-webinar-debrief-can-data-centers-be-green-s101691948</link><description>Here S&amp;amp;P Global Ratings shares messages related to its recent webinar &amp;quot; Can Data Centers Be Green? How S&amp;amp;P Global Ratings Analyzes Data Center Financings in its Second Party Opinions (replay) &amp;quot; . We summarize the key messages from the webinar and answer questions we received from attendees. See all our upcoming events here . This report does not constitute a rating action. The data center boom shows no signs of slowing down. Since the launch of ChatGPT, the data center sector has entered a perio</description><title>Sustainability Insights: Webinar Debrief: Can Data Centers Be Green?</title><pubDate>23 June 2026 07:27:11 GMT</pubDate></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/05/valuation-date-private-assets-australia</link><description>The proposed 2026-27 Federal Budget CGT reforms could make 1 July 2027 an important valuation date for private assets.  </description><title>Why 1 July 2027 Could Become a Critical Valuation Date for Private Assets in Australia</title><pubDate>23 June 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Peter Alleston</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Blog â June 23, 2026 Why 1 July 2027 Could Become a Critical Valuation Date for Private Assets in Australia By Peter Alleston The proposed 2026-27 Federal Budget CGT reforms could make 1 July 2027 an important valuation date for private assets. From that date, the Government proposes to replace the current 50% CGT discount with cost base indexation and introduce a minimum 30% tax rate on capital gains. These measures are currently proposed and not yet law. However, if enacted in their announced form, they could create a significant transition-date valuation challenge for private asset holders. In effect, the reforms introduce a âvaluation reset pointâ that is straightforward for listed assets, but significantly more complex for private markets. For private capital managers, the key issue is that gains before and after 1 July 2027 will be treated differently. This means private assets will require a supportable and well-documented value at that date. That value may affect tax outcomes, investor allocations, unit pricing, fund accounting, audit review and potential future disputes. How the current CGT discount works Under the current system, investors generally receive a 50% CGT discount if they hold an asset for more than 12 months. For example, if an investor buys an asset for $100 and later sells it for $200 the capital gain is $100. With the 50% discount, only $50 is taxable. How the proposed indexation approach would work Under the proposed system, the 50% discount would be replaced by cost base indexation. Instead of automatically taxing only half the gain, the original cost base would be adjusted for inflation. Using the same example, assume the investor buys the asset for $100, inflation over the holding period is 20%, and the asset is sold for $200. The indexed cost base becomes $120, so the taxable gain is $200 - $120 = $80. This highlights the key difference: while indexation provides relief for inflation, it can be less favourable for high growth assets. Where asset values increase significantly above inflation, a larger proportion of that value creation becomes taxable. For simplicity, the examples throughout this article calculate the gain amount subject to tax rather than the final tax payable, which will depend on taxpayer circumstances, marginal tax rates, fund structures and the proposed 30% minimum tax. Why growth equity and venture capital are especially affected Growth equity, venture capital, private equity, real assets and other capital-appreciation strategies are likely to be more exposed because they aim to generate returns well above inflation through operational improvement, earnings growth, leverage, asset development, restructuring or multiple expansion. As a result, a larger share of value creation may become taxable under the new rules. This could affect post-tax IRRs, carried interest, management equity, exit timing and pricing, and relative attractiveness versus other asset classes. Private credit: less exposed, but still relevant Private credit is generally less affected because returns mainly come from interest income and fees rather than capital gains. However, capital gains can still arise in certain situations. For example, assume a distressed loan is purchased for $60, later sold for $90, and cumulative inflation is 20%. Under the current system, the capital gain is $30 of which $15 is taxable. Under indexation, the cost base becomes $72 and $18 is taxable. This shows that the reforms remain relevant for loans acquired at a discount, restructured positions, secondary trades or assets sold at a premium. The exposure may be greater where private credit strategies include equity kickers, warrants, distressed purchases, restructurings, PIK instruments, loan-to-own outcomes or secondary trades at material discounts or premiums. Why 1 July 2027 is an important valuation date The transition date is critical because gains must be split into pre- and post- transition gains. For example, assume a private equity fund: Purchased an asset in 2022 for $100 Valued the asset at $160 on 1 July 2027 Sold it for $220 in 2030 Post-2027 inflation is 10% The gain amounts subject to tax are: Valuation @ $160 Total gain Taxable gain Pre-transition 60 30 Post-transition 60 44 Total 120 74 The 1 July 2027 valuation is likely to become a critical reference point for separating pre-transition and post-transition gains, subject to the final transitional rules. Valuation sensitivity and subjectivity Unlike listed assets, which have objective marking prices, private assets rely heavily on assumptions and judgement. Consider two alternative scenarios: Higher valuation (+20%) Valuation @ $192 Total gain Taxable gain % Change Pre-transition 92 46 Post-transition 28 9 Total 120 55 -26% Lower valuation (-20%) Valuation @ $128 Total gain Taxable gain % Change Pre-transition 28 14 Post-transition 92 79 Total 120 93 +26% This shows that valuation differences can materially shift tax outcomes. It also creates a natural incentive to support higher valuations at 1 July 2027, as this would allocate more gains to the pre-transition regime. However, any such valuation must be supportable and consistent with audit, governance and regulatory expectations. Importantly, this valuation will likely be tested years later when the asset is realised and will need to withstand retrospective scrutiny from auditors and tax authorities. Risks to investors The 1 July 2027 valuation does not only affect tax calculations â it can also create financial risks for investors if it is not appropriately determined. If a valuation is set too high at the transition date, it may shift a greater proportion of gains into the preâtransition regime, reducing the apparent future tax burden. While this may benefit exiting investors in the short term, it can result in new or remaining investors effectively bearing tax on gains that were generated before they invested. Conversely, if the valuation is too low, more gains may fall into the postâtransition regime, increasing the tax burden on those investors. In this way, inaccuracies in valuation can create inter-investor equity issues, leading to unintended wealth transfers between different investor groups, distort afterâtax returns, and produce outcomes that are inconsistent with economic participation in the underlying assets. Considerations for fund managers For assets held across the transition date, managers will need to track gains accrued before and after 1 July 2027. Future CGT outcomes will hinge critically on the 1 July 2027 valuation, particularly at the point of exit. Valuation also affects financial reporting, investor reporting and unit pricing, and audit review. For open-ended funds, continuation vehicles and funds with secondary transfers, the transition valuation may become an inter-investor equity issue, not merely a tax compliance exercise, as different investors may bear unequal shares of future tax depending on when they enter or exit. Key areas to consider Formal valuation vs formula. The reforms may allow either a prescribed formula or a formal valuation. Whilst a formula may be simpler and cheaper, it may not reflect assets with uneven value growth. For example, a company may grow sharply after winning a major contract, or a credit asset that reprices after restructuring. For many private assets, a formal valuation is likely to be more appropriate. Record keeping. Private asset cost bases are complex and evolve over time. For example follow-on investments, capex, restructuring costs, refinancing costs, transaction costs, and other adjustments. In addition, a valuation prepared in 2027 may need to be defended years later. This increases the importance of robust documentation and record keeping. Valuation consistency. Funds may have different values for NAV reporting, tax calculations, and internal portfolio monitoring. These differences must be explainable and defensible. Valuation governance. Managers may need to support assumptions around discount rates, comparable transactions, credit spreads, impairment indicators, LTV, DSCR, terminal values and exit assumptions. This aligns with broader trends such as increased scrutiny from investors and greater regulatory focus on valuation, disclosure, and fairness. The CGT reforms add another layer â valuations will not only be scrutinised for reporting, but also for tax outcomes. How independent valuations can help Independent valuations can provide a structured, objective and defensible framework at the transition date and beyond. They can: Support governance and board oversight Improve consistency across NAV, tax and reporting Provide an audit trail documenting assumptions and methodology This is particularly valuable for private assets where judgement is significant. Using the earlier example, the $160 valuation on 1 July 2027 affects the allocation of gains between regimes, unit pricing, investor outcomes, audit and regulatory review. The key issue is not just whether $160 is correct, but whether the manager can explain and defend why it was reasonable at that point in time. Conclusion The 2026â27 CGT reforms are fundamentally a tax change, but they have significant implications for private asset valuation. By replacing the 50% CGT discount with indexation from 1 July 2027, the reforms require a clear separation of historical and future gains. For private assets, this separation depends on supportable valuations at the transition date. The issue is not simply whether a valuation appears reasonable today. It is whether that valuation can be evidenced, explained and defended years later when assets are realised and tax outcomes crystallise. In a regime where valuation determines how gains are allocated across time, weak or inconsistent valuation evidence can translate directly into financial, tax and investor risk. Early preparation will be critical. Independent valuations can play an important role in providing robust, defensible valuation frameworks, supporting governance, and helping build stakeholder trust in a regime where valuation outcomes have direct tax and investor consequences. Learn more about Private Market Valuations Click Here ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/061926-wind-and-solar-back-brazils-debut-battery-storage-auction</link><description>Brazilian wind and solar power generators welcomed an announcement in early June of the country&amp;apos;s first auction for battery energy storage systems, a move expected to mark Brazil&amp;apos;s entry into the technology and tackle curtailments. On June 3, Brazil&amp;apos;s Ministry of Mines and Energy announced two capacity reserve auctions, or LRCap, for battery energy storage systems scheduled for Dec. 2 and Dec. 4.</description><title>Wind and solar back Brazil&amp;apos;s debut battery storage auction</title><pubDate>19 June 2026 14:45:13 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Felipe Peroni</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Electric Power, Energy Transition, Renewables June 19, 2026 Wind and solar back Brazilâs debut battery storage auction By Felipe Peroni Editor: Ankit Ajmera Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Brazil to launch first BESS auction in Dec Curtailments hit 20.8% of wind-solar generation Chile leads region with 3,293 MW storage capacity Brazilian wind and solar power generators welcomed an announcement in early June of the country's first auction for battery energy storage systems, a move expected to mark Brazil's entry into the technology and tackle curtailments. On June 3, Brazil's Ministry of Mines and Energy announced two capacity reserve auctions, or LRCap, for battery energy storage systems scheduled for Dec. 2 and Dec. 4. The contracts will have a 15-year duration, with supply expected to begin in 2028. The ministry said that the systems must have a minimum power capacity of 30 MW, be capable of providing a continuous supply for at least four hours and have a maximum recharge period of six hours. "Storage systems are the most relevant variable to this structural issue of curtailments," said Fabio Bortoluzo, president of Atlas Renewable Energy, during the ENASE conference June 18 in Rio de Janeiro. He estimates that continued investment in batteries could reduce curtailments by 50% over the next three years. Curtailments have impacted wind and solar generators, prompting some companies to suspend investments in the country until a long-term solution is implemented. In May, wind and solar curtailments combined accounted for 20.8% of generation, according to ONS data. This figure is higher than the 19.1% reported in April. In the first 14 days of June, curtailments remained at 18.6% of generation, ONS data showed. On June 4, during the countrywide Corpus Christi holiday, low electricity demand led to curtailments rising to an average of 9.6 GW, or 35.8% of the day's potential wind and solar generation, according to ONS. "We have a problem of energy oversupply only at some peak moments of the day," Ruy Chammas, president of ISA Energia, said during the conference. BESS debut While the initial auctions are not expected to fully resolve the storage capacity shortfall, they represent an important first step toward adopting this technology -- one that has been anticipated since late 2025, according to conference participants. During the conference, participants cited Chile as a model to follow. The South American country has 40 operational storage projects with a capacity of 3,293 MW, according to data from the Chilean Electric Generators Association, or Generadoras. Another 10 projects with 1,301 MW are in the testing phase, while an additional 72 projects are under construction, which could add 5,684 MW if completed, data from the association showed. "We are many laps behind other countries," CPFL's strategy and innovation director, Bruno Monte, said at the conference. CPFL has already installed batteries near some of its wind farms and distribution assets to test the technology and integrate it into its operations. "We have proven cases of technology use, and we understand how it can contribute to operating the electric system," Monte said. Participants sought clarity -- specifically highlighting uncertainty about how the investment in battery energy storage systems will be financed and by whom. The December auctions are expected to address this issue by promoting competition among companies offering storage solutions. "This first auction is important for us to increase practical knowledge of storage technologies," Rui Altieri, president of the Brazilian Association of Independent Energy Producers, or Apine, said at the conference. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/sf-credit-brief-us-private-credit-clo-insights-2026-another-month-of-stable-performance-a-look-at-issuers-with-pik-toggles-this-year-s101692041</link><description>This report does not constitute a rating action. S&amp;amp;P Global Ratings is publishing this report to provide key metrics on the credit-estimated companies with loans in U.S. middle market collateralized loan obligations (MM CLOs), as well as CLO performance indicators. Our private credit and middle market CLO slide deck is published in the first month of each quarter (see &amp;quot; Private Credit And Middle-Market CLO Quarterly: House Of The Rising Spread (Q2 2026) ,&amp;quot; published April 28, 2026). As of the st</description><title>SF Credit Brief: U.S. Private Credit CLO Insights 2026: Another Month Of Stable Performance; A Look At Issuers With PIK Toggles This Year</title><pubDate>22 June 2026 14:10:12 GMT</pubDate></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/sustainable-finance-newsletter-q1-2026-s101685955</link><description>This report showcases our sustainable finance publications. We surpassed the 1,000 SPO mark in April, noting the market&amp;apos;s increasing transparency and the rising use of taxonomies and thematic labels. SPO numbers remained robust in first-quarter 2026; we assigned Dark and Medium green shades to common renewable energy projects and to forestry projects. SPOs cover countries with limited experience of issuing sustainable debt, suggesting potential for geographical expansion. Our analysis shows data</description><title>Sustainable Finance Newsletter Q1 2026</title><pubDate>15 May 2026 16:44:49 GMT</pubDate></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/blog/energy-transition/062226-insight-conversation-mandy-rambharos-verra</link><description>The voluntary carbon market has evolved, with multiple frameworks being implemented in different countries. Verra, a leader in carbon project registrations, has one of the most widely used carbon crediting frameworks globally. Verra CEO Mandy Rambharos speaks with S&amp;amp;P Global Energy Price Reporter Himanshu Chauhan about methodology approvals, operational improvements and progress in assessment</description><title>INSIGHT CONVERSATION: Mandy Rambharos, Verra</title><pubDate>22 June 2026 10:03:08 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Himanshu Chauhan</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Carbon June 22, 2026 INSIGHT CONVERSATION: Mandy Rambharos, Verra By Himanshu Chauhan Editor: Roma Arora Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... The voluntary carbon market has evolved, with multiple frameworks being implemented in different countries. Verra, a leader in carbon project registrations, has one of the most widely used carbon crediting frameworks globally. Verra CEO Mandy Rambharos speaks with S&amp;P Global Energy Price Reporter Himanshu Chauhan about methodology approvals, operational improvements and progress in assessment timelines. Rambharos talks about interoperability challenges across the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation and Article 6 frameworks, as well as the structure of Indonesia's mutual recognition agreement. She also addresses the competition within the carbon standards space and outlines what an ideal VCM should look like as it approaches 2027. As a registry, what are the biggest operational challenges in facilitating corresponding adjustments, or CAs? How is Verra working to streamline the Letter of Authorization process, and do you see a path toward standardizing CA procedures? An LoA is a sovereign act, and what that looks like in practice varies significantly from country to country. The legal frameworks, the institutional actors, the timelines, the documentation requirements -- none of these is standardized yet. The same is true for CAs. The accounting logic is agreed in principle; the operational mechanics are still being worked out. The honest answer is that right now there are more questions than answers. We work directly with host country governments to help build the institutional knowledge and processes that make these frameworks function. The path toward standardization exists and I'm optimistic about it. What are your 2026 issuance projections and current pipeline for VM0047 (afforestation, reforestation, and revegetation) and VM0048 (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation)? How is Verra balancing integrity standards with developers' concerns about long validation timelines for VM0048? We currently have 196 and 46 projects for VM0047 and VM0048, respectively at various lifecycle stages, representing an estimated 74.3 million and 37.8 million annual emission reductions, respectively. These figures are largely preliminary estimates from project developers and validation/verification bodies (VVBs). VM0048 represents a fundamental shift in how REDD baselines are set. The methodology relies on jurisdictional deforestation risk maps developed by Verra. We now have available data for nine jurisdictions that represent a high percentage of REDD project activity. The supply will reach the market as soon as possible. Verra-issued credits are being used across multiple frameworks and voluntary commitments. What are the main obstacles to ensuring seamless interoperability, and what approach is Verra taking to address fragmentation? Our registry migration to S&amp;P Global Energy is built specifically for cross-system interoperability, with meta-registry functionality that connects to government registries and other compliance systems. The pace of interoperability is partly a function of government readiness. Host governments are building the legal frameworks, national registries and general capacity to issue them consistently. That all adds process: it means credits carry genuine government endorsement, which strengthens standing in compliance markets. Indonesia's mutual recognition agreement with Verra in October 2025 enables dual registration. How will the issuance structure function under this agreement? Will credits be issued simultaneously on two registries? Carbon credits will continue to be issued under Verra's Verified Carbon Standard program. and also to be reflected in Indonesia's national registry, the Carbon Unit Registry System. We see this as an optimal model because it combines the strength and credibility of established international market infrastructure with a host country's ability to maintain visibility and oversight through its own registry framework. The carbon standards scape is evolving, with new registries offering digitization, faster processing times and blockchain-based tracking as differentiators. How does Verra view this competition? Competition is good for this market. It signals that carbon markets are worth competing in, and it pushes everyone to improve. On the specific differentiators, the question identifies digitization, processing speed and blockchain tracking. We're investing in all of them and have been doing so for years -- the S&amp;P Global Energy registry migration, DMRV (digital monitoring, reporting and verification) pilots. Twenty-four methodologies are being digitalized, with more in the pipeline. Some project developers and VVBs have raised questions about Verra's project assessment timelines. Can you explain Verra's approach and how the priority assessment fee structure works? Review timelines have been a real pain point for developers. Over the past 1.5 years, we've implemented a risk-based approach to reviews, which cut cycle times by 50%-80%, depending on project type. We've also recently published updated and more granular SLAs. We've also digitized many of our project submission and review processes. For cookstove projects using the digital submission process, review and approval time has decreased from 163 to 63 days. Average VVB response times have also dropped 26% in the last six months. The full end-to-end review process is now averaging 127 days compared to 169 days previously. The prioritization fee is available to developers who need an accelerated process to meet financing window obligations. It's transparent, opt-in and the fees go directly back into expanding review capacity, which benefits everyone in the regular queue. Cookstove projects have faced scrutiny regarding the fraction of non-renewable biomass calculations, with the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market establishing strict fraction of non-renewable biomass, or fNRB, conditions and the EU's draft CORSIA proposal targeting cookstove eligibility. How is Verra responding to these developments and what is your outlook for the future of cookstoves credits? Verra's cookstoves methodology, VM0050, is approved by the ICVCM under its Core Carbon Principles framework. Projects seeking to apply the CCP label have to meet specific criteria that relate to the fNRB value to reflect the strict conditions around fNRB. The methodology also aligns with the Comprehensive Lowered Emissions Assessment and Reporting methodology by the Clean Cooking Alliance. Verra is committed to reviewing other approaches under development, like the Modeling Fuelwood Savings Scenarios (MoFuSS) model for determining the fraction of non-renewable biomass for project-specific use. Verra believes that the MoFuSS tool includes a robust and credible approach for fNRB determination. Until the MoFuSS has been widely reviewed and endorsed, TOOL30(the mechanism used to calculate fNRB), combined with a 26% uncertainty discount, represents a reasonable path forward to ensure continuous market access for cookstove projects. Verra is also considering adopting the marginal fNRB approach, which determines the fraction of non-renewable biomass savings directly linked to the specific intervention, rather than using an average. This is still in the early stages of development. With Verra's rigorous assessment criteria, it will be considered for incorporation intoâ¯VM0050 at an opportune time. Looking ahead to 2027 and beyond, what does a healthy, functioning VCM look like? A healthy VCM in 2027 looks like a market that has answered the clarity question as decisively as it answered the integrity question. The integrity architecture is built. ICVCM has established what quality means, independent ratings agencies have given buyers real tools, and the safeguards the market needed are now embedded in our standards. The challenge now is demand, and that requires clarity. We've complicated and subdivided this market in ways that sometimes serve precision and sometimes create confusion. The standards, the frameworks, the governance structures -- these are means, not ends. This market exists to drive meaningful impact. When buyers, developers and policymakers stay focused on that, the rest follows. This interview has been edited for clarity and length. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/private-markets-360/private-markets-360-episode-45-understanding-success-in-the-evolving-pe-landscape</link><description>In this episode of Private Markets 360Â°, we welcome Bob Belke, Managing Partner at Lovell Minnick, whose 26-year career began at TIAA and led him to help grow Lovell Minnick in its early days in 2000. Bob discusses what makes lower middle market buyouts different - especially the value of specialization, early outside institutional involvement, and a disciplined approach to investing - and how private equity has evolved over the past two decades. He also shares insights on todayâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99;s market dyna</description><title>Private Markets 360 | Episode 45: Understanding Success in the Evolving PE Landscape </title><pubDate>22 June 2026 04:00:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Chris Sparenberg</name><name>Jocelyn Lewis</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Podcast â 22 June, 2026 Private Markets 360Â° | Episode 45: Understanding Success in the Evolving PE Landscape By Chris Sparenberg and Jocelyn Lewis In this episode of Private Markets 360Â°, we welcome Bob Belke, Managing Partner at Lovell Minnick, whose 26-year career began at TIAA and led him to help grow Lovell Minnick in its early days in 2000. Bob discusses what makes lower middle market buyouts different - especially the value of specialization, early outside institutional involvement, and a disciplined approach to investing - and how private equity has evolved over the past two decades. He also shares insights on todayâs market dynamics, the liquidity needs investors face, and why consistent value creation remains essential in a highly competitive environment. More S&amp;P Global Content: S&amp;P Global, Cambridge Associates, Mercer Private Markets Performance Analytics Credits: Host/Author: Chris Sparenberg and Jocelyn Lewis Guests: Robert Belke, Lovell Minnick Producer: Georgina Lee Published With Assistance From: Feranmi Adeoshun, Kimberly Olvany View Full Transcript Jocelyn Lewis [00:00:01]: Welcome to Private Markets 360 where we delve into the evolving landscape of private markets and the insights that shape investment strategies. In this episode, we're excited to welcome Bob Belke, a distinguished leader with 26 years of experience at Lovell Minnick Partners. Bob joined Lovell Minnick in its early days in 2000, when the firm was just getting off the ground, and has since played a pivotal role in its growth and success. As the current managing partner, Bob has specialized focus on private equity, asset management and wealth management. His journey began at TIAA where he was part of a direct equity investing group. But he found a unique opportunity at Lovell Minnick to adopt a more specialized approach, particularly in the financial services sector. Lovell Minnick is known for being one of the first outside institutional investors in companies, particularly in the lower middle market where they excel in identifying and nurturing growth opportunities. In this episode, Bob will discuss the unique aspects of lower middle market buyouts, the evolution of the private equity industry over the past two decades, and the critical importance of value creation in today's competitive landscape. Jocelyn Lewis [00:01:24]: He will also share his insights on the current market dynamics, the need for liquidity among investors, and Lovell Minnick's disciplined approach to investing during challenging times. Bob, welcome to Private Markets 360. It's a pleasure to have you with us today. How are you? Bob Belke [00:01:42]: I'm doing great, Jocelyn, thank you for having me. Chris Sparenberg [00:01:46]: We're thrilled to have you. Bob, I think there's no better way to start off this conversation than talking about your career evolution and your time at Lovell Minnick over the last 26 years. Bob Belke [00:01:55]: Great. Absolutely. So I joined Lovell Minnick in 2000. So 26 years ago. The vast majority of my career has really been spent at Lovell Minnick. Previous to that, I think, as Jocelyn, you mentioned in your intro, I was at TIAA-CREF, which is a large pension fund and I was doing direct private equity investing there for a few years, but really as a generalist. So we invested in, I mean I remember doing deals in. We bought a paper company, we bought a semiconductor manufacturer, we bought multiple consumer products companies. Bob Belke [00:02:32]: It was an amazing experience for me. But I also realized sort of very early on that as a generalist in the sector you really don't bring much to the table except really money. And I think I got kind of an early glimpse at what the specialist model could really could really do. So I met the founders of Lovell Minick at that time, Jeff Lovell and Jim Minick. And they were really coming at it from the far other end of the spectrum. Extreme specialization in financial Services. They actually came from operating backgrounds in the asset management sector. And I had some prior experience at Wilshire Associates where I worked with a number of asset management firms as my clients. Bob Belke [00:03:26]: And I saw an opportunity to become a real expert investing in that specialized sector. And it seemed very logical to me that the private equity industry would evolve that way over time, particularly for complex sectors such as financial services. So we raised our first institutional fund that year in 2000. It was a hundred million dollar fund and we're now investing our six funds. So my career evolution really the first 15 years or so at Lovell Minick, I led and executed many deals in our early funds and then the last almost coming up on 10 years or so. I've been a managing partner of the business. I chair our investment committee and, and so today I spend most of my time really working on the portfolio, sort of thinking through the key decisions on buying companies, selling companies, critical things that we might have going on within our portfolio. We own about 25 companies today, maybe just some background on our firm. Bob Belke [00:04:40]: So we're deep sector specialists in financial services. Our current fund is just over a billion dollars with co investment. We'll invest over 2 billion with this fund. In fact, we've actually closed down almost a billion dollars of co investment with our current fund. Typical deal size for us is going to be EBITDA in sort of the 10 to 30 million range. I really like the low end of that range. And we've been operating there for a very long time. I find that we can really kind of do the most with companies of this size. Bob Belke [00:05:19]: There's a lot of low hanging fruit. You can institutionalize the platforms, you can expand products and services, you can expand geographies, you can introduce formalize M and A programs. Most of our companies do that. We're also almost always the first outside institutional capital in our businesses. I'd say that's a major differentiator. We will rarely buy from other sponsors. I would say we would typically sell our companies to other larger sponsors. And we've really kind of stayed true to our strategy over many funds. Bob Belke [00:05:58]: We really like the lower middle market. And I'd say while we've grown as a firm, our typical deal profile hasn't really changed. It's easy to stray and we haven't really done that. And then I maybe just mention some other just signatures to our style as investors. We're highly collaborative, we're known for that. In fact, our sort of, our slogan that we've used now for quite some time is industry experts Collaborative partners. So if you think about our end sectors, we really, we only invest in, in people, businesses and it just requires a very different style of investing right into those types of companies. Culture is critical. Bob Belke [00:06:45]: We really only do buyouts. It's all B2B, not B2C. We don't really do anything that's directly consumer facing and we don't really do balance sheet heavy businesses. So things like banks, specialty finance, et cetera. Our companies tend to be high margin, high cash flow, low capex. So that should give you a pretty good snapshot of sort of my history and my firm. Jocelyn Lewis [00:07:14]: Wow, Bob. Well, thank you for walking us through that journey. There's a lot to unpack there and it's really a great context for understanding how both you and Lovell Minnick really evolved together. Hearing that the firm grew from its early days into a highly specialized financial services investor really sets the stage for exploring one of the themes that you've consistently emphasize, which is that power of specialization. So with that foundation in mind, let's shift into how this specialization translates into real value creation across your portfolio companies. So throughout your time at lnp, you've often highlighted that importance with specialization. And could you elaborate on how that enhances value creation within the portfolio companies, particularly in the lower middle market, and what strategies you've found to be most effective in driving growth and operational improvements post acquisition? Bob Belke [00:08:23]: Yeah, sure. Jocelyn. Happy, happy to address that. Appreciate the question. So yeah, I mentioned at the very beginning, right. We've been deep specialists from the beginning and that's a big advantage because the market has absolutely moved that way and like being a specialist, it just helps in, in so many areas. Right. One, one is just, this is winning the deal, right? It's you need to speak management's language. Bob Belke [00:08:47]: You really need to understand as much about the sectors and the subsectors that that the companies, the management teams actually understand themselves. Right. You have to speak their language and you can't do that unless really you're truly an expert. Right. Unless you spend all of your time doing it so referenced at the beginning, my experience at TI cref, which was amazing as a young new investor to have that kind of exposure, but. Right. I wasn't gonna become an expert in semiconductor manufacturing and paper manufacturing at the same time. Management is going to pick the party that can help them to grow the most. Bob Belke [00:09:25]: It won't necessarily be the highest price, sort of depending on who the seller is. It's all about what you can build together going forward. And you know, the industry has just gotten so much More competitive over the years. So today, I mean you can't really win as a generalist. I mean even generalist firms, right, they've scrambled to become multi sector specialists. I don't think anyone today would really even sort of call themselves a generalist, right. They picked verticals, they assign and you know, a major advantage though for us today is really more around how long we've been doing it, right. We have the fortunate history of being early investors in our sectors. Bob Belke [00:10:03]: And when I look at several of our subsectors, things like wealth management or specialty consulting firms or insurance brokerage, like we were just there very early. And while there might be a number of other firms, you know, playing there today, being there early was helpful. Another area, and you referenced this, right? Value creation, where specialization really matters is what are you going to do with the company once you own it? So we have an advisory council that consists of 30 members today. Nine of those 30 are what we call functional experts. And the other 21 of the 30 are really what we call industry experts, ex CEOs in specific verticals. So when I look at our functional experts, these are people that we can apply across the full portfolio. So we have a, we have an individual who focuses exclusively on human capital for us. And I know that's a topic I think we're going to talk about later. Bob Belke [00:11:08]: We have an individual exclusively in operations, go to market, in sales, M and a finance and accounting and then a number of folks in tech. Obviously we have an increased AI focus both at our firm and across the portfolio. We have an individual, for instance, that is exclusively focused in cybersecurity across the portfolio. He manages all the threats very close to each of the companies. On that topic, our industry folks, they're all experts in their subsectors. Most are ex CEOs and you just sort of can't build something like that unless you're a specialist. We also recently hired a value we call the role of value creation quarterback. It's an internal role at our firm. Bob Belke [00:11:58]: It sits on top of all the resources that I just described to really ensure that we're optimizing the matching of the resources with the opportunities, whether it's new deals or whether it's existing portfolio companies. And maybe the last one I would mention on this specialization topic is just deal sourcing, right? It's just another area where being a specialist is a huge advantage. I previously mentioned winning the deal, right? This sort of relates to that. If you're only trafficking in a specific sector, you develop an industry reputation. You can spend all of your time sourcing. There's. We have a proprietary sourcing model that we developed about 10 to 15 years ago that we call our campaign process. It involves creating internal deal teams to develop and execute on these sourcing campaigns. Bob Belke [00:12:53]: It's a very specialized approach. And so, yeah, I mean I think the market has obviously come this way over all the years, as you would expect. And I think it's been proven generally in the industry that specialized firms do generate incremental alpha in private equity. Chris Sparenberg [00:13:11]: I'd love to follow that point and specifically about you're being early to investing in wealth management. Just to talk a little bit about what you saw about that segment that was unique, how your approach to investing in wealth management has evolved over time and certainly your outlook for that segment as the market continues to evolve. Bob Belke [00:13:32]: Yeah, no, thanks for that, Chris. Yeah, we've been early. We were very early in wealth management. We were either the first or certainly one of the first private equity firms to make investments there. It's like it's generally a great subsector within financial services. There certainly are some challenges worth probably talking about in this environment. But if you think about the sector, right, recurring revenues, sticky clients, you also get this natural lift to revenues and to profitability just based on the business model, right. Or if you think about it as tied to markets, overall markets over time do go up. Bob Belke [00:14:09]: So you get this general appreciation right in your profitability, which is great. Now there's some volatility to that clearly, but over time it's a really nice lift that you get. We've done many deals over the last 20 plus years in wealth management. I think we're certainly recognized as a strong brand name there among participants in the industry, which is an advantage. We invest in a lot of different types of companies here over the years. Fee only RIAs, independent broker dealers, retirement advisors. We had a firm that started as a tax advisor that evolved into financial planning, certainly traditional asset management firms, although we really have done a lot less there in more recent years for various reasons. And then just firms that provide infrastructure and services to the space, the whole ecosystem and the industries. Bob Belke [00:15:10]: That sector's really evolved, right. There's still a lot of pockets where you can do well. We really like fee based RIAs. Right. That's where the advisor needs to be, a true fiduciary. It's also the fastest growing area of that sector. You know, we currently have two firms that are fee based RIAs. In the portfolio we have a company called Pastone, which today may be the largest independently Owned ultra high net worth wealth management firm. Bob Belke [00:15:43]: So they focus really on the very large sort of family office market. That and that we did that, we made that investment about five years ago and we've grown it to a sizable company today. And then we have another company called Americana, which is an investment that we made just over a year ago, which is, which is smaller Texas based business. A I would say some of the challenges though in wealth management, I mean one, just the amount of private equity investment that the space has seen. A lot of firms that you might say were kind of generalists and just a lot of firms that made investments there because they viewed it, they recognize it's a very solid sector. And just the valuations today, right. I mean 20 times plus EBITDA multiples are commonplace in wealth management. So really high and it's a maturing industry. Bob Belke [00:16:44]: Right. Private equities recognize how attractive it is. So how do you play it given these concerns? It's not like it was 15 years ago. What we've done is the idea of starting small. So I mentioned the Americana investment, starting really small where if you're going to grow really fast, you can sort of get comfortable paying 20 times EBITDA. If let's just say you take a company that's 7 or 8 million dollars in EBITDA and you have confidence that in year one you can take it to 12 to 15, your 20 times multiple becomes closer to 10 times multiple very quickly. That's a lot easier to do than buying something that's 50 million in EBITDA where the big guys kind of need to play. And saying you're going to take that to a hundred in one year, you, you really almost can't do that. Bob Belke [00:17:40]: So it's a good way to play. We're doing some similar things in the insurance MGA space where we're actually, we're creating our own company there. As opposed to paying a high price per platform. We've sort of found a team and we're just acquiring a number of small businesses to build a platform. So that's a way to kind of, it's a way to approach a high priced sector that you have expertise in and still do well in an environment that's pretty challenging. Jocelyn Lewis [00:18:12]: That's really a great breakdown of how Lovell Minnick approached the wealth management sector and the dynamics shaping the evolution. The opportunities and challenges that you highlighted really underscore how quickly this landscape is shifting not just in wealth management but across financial services more broadly. And Bob, building on that, just wanting to widen the lens and Talk about the broader deal environment with which you're operating in. So what are some of the key factors shaping investment decisions today and how have you adapted the strategy to address the challenges and opportunities that are present in today's market? Bob Belke [00:18:59]: Yeah, great, great question. It's a really interesting deal environment today. I'm sure you probably had a lot of episodes around this topic, right? I mean, capital flows into the industry are down materially. Chris Sparenberg [00:19:16]: Right. Bob Belke [00:19:16]: Fundraising is well off the pace from really the spike of 2021. Now my view is actually that today's environment is actually much more normal when you compare it to the years prior to 2020. I think the outlier was really that boom that happened in starting post Covid. Right late 20, all the way into 2021, into 2022. That period, frankly, it was abnormal and it was not good for the industry. Many GPs raised and invested funds in a really compressed timeframe, one to two years in some cases, instead of maybe the typical cycle of call it three to five years. Many of the deals that were done in that time period were at peak valuations. Massive amounts of capital were deployed and like, it's just, it's a challenge for the industries, can take years to work through it. Bob Belke [00:20:13]: There were. The leverage on those deals was also just really high because financing was cheap. You know, rates were so low and that's just no longer so to the extent that you had floating rates debt on those companies, that's now a pretty expensive debt. So firms that over deployed during that period are just, they're going to struggle more than those that haven't. I have to put in a little plug for my firm on this one. I think we stayed pretty true to our history. Our vintage years were 2015, that was our fund for 2019, that was our fund five and then 2023 was our fund six. So we had four years in between, which was consistent with our history. Bob Belke [00:21:03]: We did very few deals in 2021. We really struggled to get things done and in retrospect I'm really happy about that. We stayed disciplined on valuation. That meant our hit rate was just low and we just weren't comfortable with the due diligence cycle that compressed to. It was literally weeks. You had to get something done in weeks instead of months. You couldn't run your process. If you didn't agree to, you know, closing on all the sellers terms in this compressed period of time, someone else would. Bob Belke [00:21:38]: So it shut us out, I'd say. So relative to that period, the deal market today is. It's just much healthier though most people don't describe it that way. The other side of the coin is it's the realization pace. Right? So there's deployment and then there's realization. Right. Returning money. And you alluded to this, Jocelyn. Bob Belke [00:22:00]: Institutional investors, they need money back. They're overallocated today, they're demanding money back. If you haven't been consistently doing it over the last several years, frankly it's too late now. It's just much harder in this environment. So dpi, the percentage of your fund that you've returned to investors really is the new IRR. I think we've done this pretty well. The DPIs on our most recent funds are they're really strong actually relative to peers and to benchmarks. So firms that stayed true to their deployment pace during the boom and didn't get caught up in the frenzy, they're going to outperform those that consistently return capital during that same period. Bob Belke [00:22:45]: They're going to outperform and. But it takes years. It takes years for the sort of the stats to play out. But ultimately DPI doesn't lie is an interesting phrase that I heard a few other stats that I thought were kind of interesting that I'd maybe like to share with your listeners. So the three year return on buyout deals in the US is now high single digits. That's 8.7%. That's the Cambridge number for US buyouts. That's the three year number. Bob Belke [00:23:20]: Right. Which is. So it's well below the long term industry average, which depending on how you measure all that's pretty consistently, you're going to say it's low to mid teens is the net IRR for US private equity buyouts. So the three year number is like 500 basis points below the longer term average and the five year number is still over 14%. And why is that? It's because it includes all of 2021 and 2022, which were just, they were huge return periods. But what you're going to see when those periods roll off, which is going to be in the next two years, is the industry's probably going to be looking at five year buyout returns, I think in the high single digits because when I look at the next two years, I think it's unlikely that they're going to be these high performing years because you still have a lot of unrealized kind of marks that the industry needs to work through. So if you're talking high single digits for five years, investors are really going to start, I think paying attention to that five years is a pretty long time. And that could have some impact on things like the retail market or the industries counting on those types of those flows. Bob Belke [00:24:37]: And you're seeing some of this in private credit where I know Jocelyn, you've got some expertise in all the news we're reading about now in private credit in the retail market. But at the end of the day, you know, investors are just becoming much more discerning on the institutional side. Just given the scarcity of capital. They're trying to figure out who the long term winners and losers are. They do remain very returns focused but they also really appreciate those that have returned capital. They just much more credibility to that. And then they're just heavily focused on the processes by which firms create returns, namely their sourcing models, their value creation strategies. And so firms that have stayed cutting edge in those areas are going to be more relevant for the future and those that fell behind will just be more challenged. Jocelyn Lewis [00:25:29]: I know it's not on the agenda, but one thing to ask you Bob, and we can cut that little statement out there. Need that. I find it really interesting that you mentioned some of those five year returns to be in the high single digits because traditionally that's the return that people would expect on senior secured loans. So do you have any commentary on how that's going to impact some of maybe the rebalancing that LPs then are going to maybe look to do with that being potentially part of the norm as we're looking over kind of the next five years or so? Bob Belke [00:26:17]: Yeah, I mean I think investors are going to pay a lot more attention to it now. High single digits. I mean I don't think that high single digits is going to be the long term sustainable like new private equity norm in buyouts. I do think it's ultimately higher than that. But I think the numbers are coming down and so invest. I think the retail investors will pay more attention to it because one that's more their experience. Most retail investors haven't been in the space. Right. Bob Belke [00:26:51]: For the length of time that the institutional investors have been in this space. I think the institutional investors will look through it a bit more. But one of the things you kind of have to keep in mind here is when you think about a long term industry average. Right. Let's say low to high teens. If you think about the investors that really sort of got that, it's the investors that have been in the industry the entire time. If you look at the more recent returns, not only are they a lot lower, most of the dollars actually came into the space in the last 10 years. So the real lived experience for most investors is actually it's at those lower numbers. Bob Belke [00:27:36]: So I don't project doom and gloom to the private equity industry and I don't want to sort of come off that way. But I do think we will see. Jocelyn A. We're going to see a sort of a RE rating, a bit of a shakeout where we are seeing that right now there are more firms in the industry today than there will be in five years. I'm highly confident in saying that. And you're seeing that shakeout happen. And one, you have to have continued to stay competitive returns wise, that's just critical. And then two, investors today are just so much more sophisticated on the institutional side. Bob Belke [00:28:12]: They're just going much deeper around. Firms are willing to underwrite and they're looking at things like your sourcing model, your value creation model, your playbooks, management turnover, all those kinds of things at the companies. Chris Sparenberg [00:28:26]: Also a considerable amount of research out there showing how lower middle market and especially specialist managers outperform larger generalists. So a lot of maybe a confluence of factors there shaping the landscape right now. Bob Belke [00:28:40]: Yeah, no, you're right, Chris. And when I look at. That's a great point and I know Cambridge has done some of that research. What's interesting about the industry and the evolution of the industry, like if you really take that long term perspective, things that were once innovative years ago, they're just now standard practice. It's like any evolving industry. So 20 years ago in private equity you could buy cheap, you could add leverage and you were going to get returns. At that time, eight times EBITDA as a valuation seemed expensive. I mean I was in the industry, right? I mean I remember turning things down at that time at 8 times EBITDA because they were expensive. Bob Belke [00:29:26]: Probably turned down some really good deals at that pricing. Ten years ago you had to do things like evolve your sourcing model if you wanted to get proprietary deals done. Ten years ago you had to have a pretty specialized focused sourcing engine as an example. Right? There were still really strong industry tailwinds. Multiples, deal multiples were still expanding at that time. You didn't know it at the time, but it turned out that was true. They were still expanding, margins were generally expanding. There were a lot of tailwinds in the industry and you were going to do well. Bob Belke [00:29:59]: It was just much more competitive. But today, today it's extremely competitive. And it's really, it's just, it's all about what you do when you Own the company. If you think about where you're gonna get the returns today, you're not gonna get it from traditional multiple expansion. That's now going in the other direction. Multiples, overall industry wide multiples are coming down certainly from the peak. So you can get multiple expansion if you're the first outside institutional capital. You're building a platform, you're accelerating growth, building a bigger business, and you can sell it on the other side with those characteristics. Bob Belke [00:30:39]: Someone will give you multiple expansion for that. It's not because the overall market has gone that way, it's because of what you've done with the business. But you certainly can't count on it as a general tailwind. And then you say, so what about leverage? Can you get it from leverage? Well, you can get a little bit from leverage, but it's much harder in today's rate environment, right? The cheap leverage is gone. So you might be able to get a little bit of a lift, but you're also, you're taking on a lot more risk with the rates in today's environment. So it has to be about growth and what you do with the company when you own it. And that's. So that's why the value creation discussion that we had earlier now is so important. Jocelyn Lewis [00:31:21]: Bob, your perspective on how the deal environment evolved and the discipline required to navigate today's volatility really highlights just how much this industry have changed. And what really stands out is that even as firms adapt strategies, sourcing capital differently and leaning more heavily into value value creation, one constant remains is that none of this is possible without the right people. And with that context in mind, let's shift to a topic that you've emphasized throughout your career. And that's the critical role of human capital in driving a firm's long term success. So what do you believe is essential for attracting and retaining top talent in this competitive industry? Bob Belke [00:32:14]: Yeah, no, that's spot on. I mean, obviously culture is critical, right? We, I think we all know that. But it's amazing how many private equity firms there are today. I referenced it earlier. I think they'll probably be less in five years than there are today. But there's a lot of firms, but also how different they all are in their styles and their approach. So I talked earlier about our style, right? Highly collaborative, very management centric. And that's something that at our firm has really emanated from our original founders. Bob Belke [00:32:51]: It's been carried forward by myself and the next generation of leaders. But if you want to attract and keep top talent, you Must you have to have a strong organizational culture. So as we only invest in human capital driven businesses, so for our companies, compensation expense is by far the largest P and L line item. So it's, it's doubly critical that we get this right at the portfolio company level. So one of our advisory council members, Ron Garrow. So Ron leads our efforts in this area. He's deeply connected into the chief people officers at all of our approximately 25 portfolio companies. An example of this is we just had a few weeks ago our Chro Summit that took place in Charleston was our second annual Chro Summit. Bob Belke [00:34:00]: And it's an event where so it's all the chief human resource officers, Chro, I like to call them chief people officers. But in all of our companies they get together, they meet for a couple of days of presentations, networking, social events, they explore best practices on talent, recruiting, retention, compensation, et cetera. And, and Ron leaves that event for us. And it's a great example, I think, of what you need to do to stay relevant and competitive in, in private equity in today's environment. As a side note, we're not only doing those summits in the human capital area, we also just had our first technology summit with the ctos in our space. We're, we've got one that we're planning for the finance accounting function for the CFOs and back to sort of just the industry evolution. Right. Ten years ago I think this would have been pretty unheard of to do something like that. Bob Belke [00:35:02]: But if you think if you look five years forward, these kinds of things are just sort of table stakes for those firms that are leading in and evolving the industry. But to just sort of wrap on that human capital question. It is the pillar. It's the pillar to what? Certainly what we do as financial services investors. Chris Sparenberg [00:35:23]: Thank you for joining us for this episode of Private Markets 360, where we had the pleasure of speaking to Bob Belke, Managing partner at Lovell Minnick. Bob shared invaluable insights into the evolving landscape of private equity, emphasizing the critical role of specialization and value creation in achieving investment success. We delved into the unique challenges faced by emerging private equity managers today, including the competitive environment and the importance of adapting strategies to meet changing market dynamics. Bob's extensive experience and perspective truly shed light on the complexities and opportunities present in the private equity space. We appreciate you tuning in and hope you found this discussion as enlightening as we did. Don't forget to subscribe to Private Markets 360 for more expert insights and trends in the world of private investment. Until next time. ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/credit-faq-how-the-uae-is-adapting-to-and-recovering-from-the-effects-of-the-middle-east-war-s101689094</link><description>This report does not constitute a rating action. Despite the recent memorandum of understanding between Iran and the U.S., the effects of the Middle East war continue to pose a risk to the United Arab Emirates&amp;apos; (UAE&amp;apos;s) economic outlook. That said, the anticipated opening of additional hydrocarbon export routes, a likely increase in oil production from 2027, and the UAE government&amp;apos;s large fiscal and external buffers in the form of sovereign wealth fund assets and foreign exchange reserves could a</description><title>Credit FAQ: How The UAE Is Adapting To And Recovering From The Effects Of The Middle East War</title><pubDate>22 June 2026 05:00:35 GMT</pubDate></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/natural-gas/061926-interview-energy-security-gives-momentum-to-alternative-fuels-in-shipping-fuel-transition</link><description>Recent disruptions to oil supply amid the Middle East war have underscored the strategic risk of over-reliance on a narrow fuel mix. Although LNG remains the dominant choice for alternative-fuel vessel orders, the latest developments have supported renewed interest in a more diversified fuel stack, including ammonia, methanol, and biofuels, Seonghoon Woo, CEO and Co-Founder of Amogy said. &amp;quot;The</description><title>INTERVIEW: Energy security gives momentum to alternative fuels in shipping fuel transition</title><pubDate>19 June 2026 09:54:55 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Donavan Lim</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Fertilizers, Chemicals, Energy Transition, Renewables, Hydrogen, Carbon June 19, 2026 INTERVIEW: Energy security gives momentum to alternative fuels in shipping fuel transition By Donavan Lim Editor: Surbhi Prasad Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Oil disruptions boost alternative fuel interest Ammonia offers scalability over methanol options Green hydrogen costs could drop to $0.5/kg by 2030 Recent disruptions to oil supply amid the Middle East war have underscored the strategic risk of over-reliance on a narrow fuel mix. Although LNG remains the dominant choice for alternative-fuel vessel orders, the latest developments have supported renewed interest in a more diversified fuel stack, including ammonia, methanol, and biofuels, Seonghoon Woo, CEO and Co-Founder of Amogy said. "The energy transition is not only about decarbonization, but also about energy security and fuel resilience," Woo told Platts, part of S&amp;P Global in an emailed interview. According to Woo, near-term geopolitical volatility is unlikely to materially accelerate adoption timelines. Progress remains contingent on regulatory clarity, upstream investment in production capacity and bunkering infrastructure, and the development of safe, scalable handling technologies for alternative fuels. Ammonia well-positioned for long-term scalability While methanol and ammonia are both expected to play meaningful roles in the maritime decarbonization pathway, Woo argues that ammonia offers superior long-term scalability. A key differentiator is its carbon-free molecular structure. Unlike e-methanol, which requires both green hydrogen and a sustainable COâ sourceâoften obtained via direct air capture or equivalent technologiesâammonia production does not depend on a carbon feedstock. This materially reduces system complexity and input constraints at scale. Ammonia is synthesized from hydrogen and nitrogen, with nitrogen widely available from atmospheric air, providing a structurally abundant input base. "From a scalability perspective, that gives ammonia a significant advantage as a pathway for delivering carbon-free fuel to hard-to-abate sectors like shipping," Woo said. In addition, ammonia benefits from an established global production and logistics backbone developed through its long-standing use in the fertilizer industry. Woo views this infrastructure, combined with its role as a hydrogen carrier and a zero-carbon molecule, as central to its long-term competitiveness in deep-sea shipping. Improving cost competitiveness of green ammonia Economics remain a critical barrier to adoption across alternative marine fuels. Woo said that green ammonia FOB export prices from China are already observed below $600/mt, with marginally higher levels in India. On an energy-equivalent basis, this places ammonia below biodiesel, which currently trades at $1,300-$1,500/mt. Platts assessed grey ammonia delivered Far East at $780/mt on June 18. Woo said that ammonia offers structural cost advantages over competing pathways. E-methanol requires carbon capture infrastructure, while liquid hydrogen incurs high energy penalties from liquefaction, cryogenic storage, and boil-off management during transport. With continued declines in renewable power costs and the scaling of electrolyzer capacity, Woo expects green ammonia production costs to decline by an additional 30%â40% through the mid-2030s. Regulatory timing not expected to alter long-term trajectory While delays in the International Maritime Organization's Net Zero Framework may defer near-term final investment decisions in select cases, Woo said the strategic direction remains unchanged. "Clear regulation is important, but shipping companies, fuel providers, and technology developers continue to prepare for a lower-carbon future," Woo said. Hydrogen cost curve to trend lower Woo expects continued structural declines in the costs of both green hydrogen and green ammonia throughout the decade, driven by scale effects and capital deployment in low-cost renewable regions, particularly China and India. Some of the most competitive projects are projected to achieve green hydrogen production costs below $500/mt or $0.5/kg by decade-end. As hydrogen represents the primary input for ammonia synthesis, these cost declines are expected to directly improve ammonia's competitiveness. Platts assessed India renewable hydrogen term contract at $3.3041/kg on June 18. Regional variation will persist, shaped by renewable resource availability, infrastructure buildout, and policy frameworks. However, Woo expects both fuels to gradually enter the competitive set for hard-to-abate sectors, including maritime transport and power generation. Supply pipeline expanding Despite recent delays and cancellations across parts of the clean ammonia project pipeline due to financing and cost pressures, Woo remains optimistic about medium- to long-term supply growth. Woo estimates approximately 300 million mt per annum of announced clean ammonia capacity globally, with over 20 million mt per annum of advanced-stage projects expected to come online before 2030. While acknowledging inevitable project attrition, Woo believes the remaining pipeline is sufficient to meet demand growth as adoption scales. Carbon credits can support, but not sufficient Carbon credits are viewed as a supportive mechanism for improving the relative competitiveness of low-carbon fuels versus conventional alternatives. However, Woo emphasizes that carbon pricing alone is insufficient to drive full-scale adoption. Broader policy frameworksâincluding production incentives, fuel standards, bunkering regulations, safety protocols, and emissions accounting methodologiesâwill remain essential to enable commercial-scale deployment. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/061926-ana-extends-saf-program-to-individual-passengers-in-japan-first</link><description>All Nippon Airways has launched a program that lets individual passengers purchase sustainable aviation fuel credits tied to their flight emissions, becoming the first Japanese carrier to extend such carbon-reduction initiatives beyond corporate clients as airlines race to secure SAF amid warnings that delays threaten Japan&amp;apos;s economic security. Rolled out June 18, the Personal Program under ANA&amp;apos;s</description><title>ANA extends SAF program to individual passengers in Japan first</title><pubDate>19 June 2026 22:16:55 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Samyak Pandey</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Agriculture, Energy Transition, Refined Products, Biofuels, Renewables, Jet Fuel June 19, 2026 ANA extends SAF program to individual passengers in Japan first By Samyak Pandey Editor: Ashanti Rojano Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS ANA launches SAF program for individuals Program lets passengers offset flight emissions Japan warns SAF shortage threatens economy All Nippon Airways has launched a program that lets individual passengers purchase sustainable aviation fuel credits tied to their flight emissions, becoming the first Japanese carrier to extend such carbon-reduction initiatives beyond corporate clients as airlines race to secure SAF amid warnings that delays threaten Japan's economic security. Rolled out June 18, the Personal Program under ANA's SAF Flight Initiative allows travelers to buy "SAF environmental value" corresponding to CO2 emissions from specific flights. Proceeds will fund expanded use of SAF across the carrier's operations. The expansion comes less than a month after ANA and Japan Airlines jointly warned that SAF shortages could prompt international carriers to bypass Japan as a destination. ANA partnered with Norwegian climate technology company Chooose to provide a platform that visualizes flight-specific CO2 emissions and enables the purchase of SAF credits. Passengers select their route and cabin class, choose the percentage of emissions to offset, and receive a certificate specifying the CO2 reduction amount after payment. Broadening participation Pricing is based on route, service class and the percentage of emissions passengers choose to offset. Transaction fees cover platform operating costs. Chooose issues receipts and purchase certificates, which are simpler than the third-party certified CO2 reduction certificates offered under ANA's existing corporate and cargo programs. ANA said third-party auditors regularly review SAF inventory and allocation to prevent double counting. SAF can reduce life cycle CO2 emissions by about 80% compared with conventional jet fuel. However, as of 2025, production represented only about 0.6% of the global jet fuel supply, according to the International Air Transport Association. Limited availability has made adoption challenging, with domestically produced SAF in Japan costing three to five times as much as conventional jet fuel. ANA's SAF Flight Initiative previously offered a Corporate Program for business travel and a Cargo Program for shippers seeking to reduce transportation emissions under Scope 3 greenhouse gas accounting. As of March 2026, 358 companies and organizations had joined ANA's and JAL's combined corporate SAF programs. ANA said expanding to individual passengers provides more options for customers who want to support aviation decarbonization. The ANA Group has committed to achieving net-zero CO2 emissions from aircraft operations by 2050. The carrier has pursued multiple SAF initiatives, including using SAF on trans-Pacific flights starting in 2012 and establishing supply agreements with producers, including Finland's Neste and Japan's Cosmo Oil Marketing. In their May 27 joint report, ANA and JAL proposed a "transparent, fair and uniform" cost-sharing framework in which airlines would bear a portion of the price differential between SAF and conventional fuel, while government support and user contributions would cover additional costs. The carriers warned that if Japan fails to secure adequate SAF supplies, the country risks being bypassed as a destination or transit point by international carriers. The airlines noted that air transport in Japan generates an economic ripple effect of about 7 trillion yen annually, equivalent to 2.8% of gross domestic product. They said maintaining stable fuel supplies is essential for achieving the government's target of 60 million visitors to Japan by 2030 and for preserving air links to remote islands and rural areas. Mass production of domestically produced SAF in Japan is expected to begin about 2030, with government support already in place. However, the carriers said immediate action is required to ensure adequate supply and avoid the enormous social costs that would result from failing to meet 2050 targets. Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, assessed sustainable aviation fuel HEFA-SPK FOB Straits at $2,395/mt June 19, unchanged from June 18, US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/061826-interview-japans-mol-expects-up-to-a-month-for-hormuz-transit-to-take-shape-ceo</link><description>Japan&amp;apos;s Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, among the world&amp;apos;s largest ship operators, expects it to take &amp;quot;at least several weeks, and possibly about a month&amp;quot; for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz to take shape, President and CEO Jotaro Tamura told Platts, part of S&amp;amp;P Global Energy. &amp;quot;At the very least, until the high-level agreement that has now been reached is reflected on the ground and transit through</description><title>INTERVIEW: Japan&amp;apos;s MOL expects up to a month for Hormuz transit to take shape: CEO</title><pubDate>18 June 2026 14:44:45 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Takeo Kumagai</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Crude Oil, LNG, Fertilizers, Chemicals, Energy Transition, Agriculture, Renewables, Hydrogen, Biofuels June 18, 2026 INTERVIEW: Japan's MOL expects up to a month for Hormuz transit to take shape: CEO By Takeo Kumagai Editor: Geetha Narayanasamy Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Sees new norm of continuing geopolitical events India a priority for acquiring LNG contracts Balancing act needed for energy security, decarbonization Japan's Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, among the world's largest ship operators, expects it to take "at least several weeks, and possibly about a month" for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz to take shape, President and CEO Jotaro Tamura told Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy. "At the very least, until the high-level agreement that has now been reached is reflected on the ground and transit through the strait takes some shape, I think it will take at least several weeks, and possibly about a month," Tamura said in an interview at the company's head office in Tokyo June 17. Asked whether his view was a general navigation trend rather than about the company's ships, Tamura said: "That's right. Of course, for our vessels that remain inside the [Persian] Gulf, we want to get them out as soon as possible." The comments came ahead of the US and Iran signing a memorandum of understanding to end the war late June 17, following the announced agreement of an interim peace deal earlier in the week. "At present, only the announcement has been made, and the actual situation on the ground in the Strait of Hormuz has not changed," he said. "Therefore, we are closely watching how the situation on the ground will change based on the announcement." Commenting on how the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz would impact oil shipping practices, Tamura said: "Even if transit through the Strait of Hormuz resumes this time, based on what has happened, industry will to some extent have no choice but to diversify procurement sources while considering geopolitical risk." Noting a potential increase in oil tanker demand across the industry, Tamura said the shipping industry will likely need to respond to those needs to some extent. MOL currently has a fleet of 35 crude oil tankers. Although the Strait of Hormuz situation is yet to be resolved, Tamura, who took the helm of the ship operator April 1, said the company needs to be better prepared for contingencies after a series of geopolitical events in recent years. "There is the Russia-Ukraine conflict, then the avoidance of transit through the Red Sea caused by the Palestine issue, and now the Persian Gulf situation. Events that seem sudden have continued to occur," Tamura said. "However, if we think on a larger scale and consider changes in geopolitical structures, one could say that rather than being sudden, these types of events are likely to continue to some degree, and that this may now be the normal state of affairs." LNG business As a means to stabilize income in the volatile shipping business, MOL -- already the world's largest LNG carrier operator -- is working to expand its LNG businesses as one of the pillars in its energy business, Tamura said. "We would like to expand the LNG carrier business, which has become one of our strengths, vertically as well, and broaden our business opportunities across the LNG value chain," Tamura said. "In this way, we have expanded our business areas both upstream and downstream in the value chain and increased earnings." Most recently, MOL said June 4 it has, together with Delfin Midstream and Vitol, reached a final investment decision and formally decided to participate as an investor in an offshore floating LNG project known as Delfin FLNG 1 with an annual LNG nameplate production capacity of 4.4 million metric tons, which is slated to begin first production in 2030. "This is not downstream but upstream [business], with gas that has been produced is liquefied offshore, temporarily stored, and then loaded onto vessels," Tamura said of Delfin FLNG 1. Tamura added that MOL has placed the upstream business in the LNG carrier value chain as a stable earning business based on medium-to-long term contracts. "The significance of having these stable-earnings businesses is that, for a shipping company like ours, many other vessel types have earnings that are very unstable, or highly volatile," he added. "Amid that volatility, having stable businesses contributes to stabilizing the performance of the company as a whole, and therefore has very significant meaning." MOL has designated the Indian Ocean Arc as the regional focus for its medium-to-long term business developments. "If we speak specifically about LNG, the country in this region where demand growth is currently expected is India," Tamura said. "Our company also owns and operates several LNG carriers for customers in India, and we expect business opportunities to continue in the future, so India will be one of the priority regions for acquiring LNG carrier contracts." MOL currently operates a fleet of a little over 100 LNG carriers, with an order backlog of 53 ships across its energy business, Tamura said, adding that the fleet is expected to increase to about 130 to 140 carriers after some retirements by 2030. Asked to comment on the global flow of LNG transportation from the EU ban on Russian LNG imports from Jan. 1, 2027, Tamura said: "For the directly involved parties, the EU and Russia, there will naturally be something like a reorganization of trade, so there will be an impact." "However, from a global perspective, it will be a reorganization of trade, and I do not think it will significantly change the overall structure," he added. Asked whether MOL will be able to transport Yamal LNG cargoes from next year, Tamura said: "We will respond while carefully assessing the direction of the sanctions measures." Balancing decarbonization Against the backdrop of developments in the Middle East and the importance of energy security being re-evaluated, MOL does not see a turnaround in its pursuit of decarbonization businesses, Tamura said. "This is a matter of time horizon. In the near term, with growing awareness of energy security, to put it somewhat extremely, there is a need to secure the supply of oil and LNG firmly. Also, based on recent events, there is a sense that procurement must be strategically diversified to some extent," Tamura said. "Even if it is more expensive or farther away, there is a sense that procurement portfolios may need to shift somewhat and include additional procurement sources." Such efforts might appear not to extend beyond that to decarbonization, he said. "However, over a longer time horizon, I do not think the fundamental concept of decarbonization has changed, and we must continue working on it," Tamura said. "In that sense, there is a difficult aspect: we may need to pursue what appear to be conflicting objectives in parallel until around the first half of the 2030s," he said, adding that a striking balance will be needed. "In the world of shipping, the next main fuel for decarbonization has not necessarily been determined yet," Tamura said. "Therefore, while keeping a broad eye on commodities such as LNG, which is regarded as a transition fuel, as well as ammonia, methanol, and biofuels, we will prepare for the coming turning point." US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/electric-power/061526-uk-japan-agree-on-offshore-wind-investment-pact-worth-up-to-gbp9-billion</link><description>The UK and Japan agreed to an offshore wind investment pact worth up to GBP9 billion ($12.1 billion), with Japanese investors set to back 5.9 gigawatts of UK floating wind projects as part of a broader economic partnership between the two nations. The UK-Japan Offshore Wind Compact, developed in partnership with UK state-owned Great British Energy, will support floating offshore wind developments,</description><title>UK, Japan agree on offshore wind investment pact worth up to GBP9 billion</title><pubDate>15 June 2026 12:27:46 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Alex Blackburne</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Electric Power, Energy Transition, Renewables June 15, 2026 UK, Japan agree on offshore wind investment pact worth up to GBP9 billion By Alex Blackburne Editor: Jonathan Fox Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Japanese investors to back UK offshore wind Includes three floating projects totaling 5.9 GW Broader pact of GBP18 bil in several sectors The UK and Japan agreed to an offshore wind investment pact worth up to GBP9 billion ($12.1 billion), with Japanese investors set to back 5.9 gigawatts of UK floating wind projects as part of a broader economic partnership between the two nations. The UK-Japan Offshore Wind Compact, developed in partnership with UK state-owned Great British Energy, will support floating offshore wind developments, including the Ossian and Green Volt projects off Scotland's east coast and the Erebus project in the Celtic Sea, according to a June 13 statement. When operational, the projects are expected to generate enough electricity to power 8 million UK homes, the government said. The pact came as UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer met Japanese counterpart Sanae Takaichi in London on June 14 ahead of the annual Group of Seven summit in Evian-les-Bains, France, from June 15-17. "These landmark agreements will bring multibillion-pound investment into the UK, creating tens of thousands of new jobs and driving new developments," Starmer said in a statement. "As G7 economies and close security partners, we are working together with Japan on some of the most innovative technology in the world, harnessing the best of British and Japanese research and industry to deliver growth and security to every corner of the United Kingdom." Japanese influence The pact makes the UK Japan's leading clean energy partner in Europe, according to the statement. Japanese investors have long played a significant role in European offshore wind. In 2011, Marubeni, one of Japan's largest trading houses, became the first Japanese company to invest in offshore wind, acquiring a 49.9% stake in the Gunfleet Sands project in the UK from Orsted. Fifteen years on, Marubeni is partnering with UK utility SSE and Denmark's Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners to develop the Ossian floating wind project in Scotland. The project has a capacity of up to 3.6 GW and was awarded to the consortium as part of the ScotWind leasing process in 2021. The UK-Japan investment pact also extends to Green Volt, a floating wind development in Scotland of up to 560 megawatts that was awarded contract for difference support in 2024. The project is being developed by Vargronn -- a joint venture between Eni's Plenitude and HitecVision -- and Flotation Energy, which counts Japan's largest utility TEPCO among its shareholders. The wind farm is slated for first power in 2029. The Erebus floating wind farm in the Celtic Sea, with a capacity of up to 100 MW, is also referenced by the UK-Japanese pact. The project won a CFD in January as part of the UK's Allocation Round 7 auction. France's TotalEnergies owns an 80% stake in the project, with the remaining 20% held by Simply Blue Group, which is backed by Japan's Kansai Electric Power. Broader pact Beyond offshore wind, the UK-Japan agreement included energy-related commitments from Hitachi Energy's UK business, which pledged to create at least 500 jobs over five years and invest GBP18 million in a new Stafford facility to support grid expansion. Rolls-Royce and Japan's Atomic Energy Agency also agreed to collaborate on next-generation nuclear technologies. The broader investment package totals more than GBP18 billion across infrastructure, financial services and advanced technologies. In other UK offshore wind news on June 15, London-listed investor TRIG agreed to sell its entire 17.5% stake in the 588-MW Beatrice project in Scotland to co-shareholder Equitix for GBP155 million. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/sustainability-insights-when-nature-sends-the-bill-the-impact-of-extreme-weather-events-on-swiss-canton-ratings-s101669774</link><description>This report does not constitute a rating action. FRANKFURT (S&amp;amp;P Global Ratings) Feb. 10, 2026--S&amp;amp;P Global Ratings today published the report &amp;quot; When Nature Sends The Bill: The Impact Of Extreme Weather Events On Swiss Canton Ratings ,&amp;quot; which explores the credit impacts of extreme weather on Swiss cantons. A landslide that destroyed about 90% of the Swiss village of Blatten in May 2025 illustrates the potential for sudden fiscal costs from an extreme weather event, despite Switzerland&amp;apos;s historical</description><title>Sustainability Insights: When Nature Sends The Bill: The Impact Of Extreme Weather Events On Swiss Canton Ratings</title><pubDate>10 February 2026 14:22:46 GMT</pubDate></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/061826-middle-eastoil-shocksrenew-global-interest-in-biofuels</link><description>The Middle East conflict has pushed crudeâ&amp;#x80;¯oilâ&amp;#x80;¯prices higherâ&amp;#x80;¯and causedâ&amp;#x80;¯fuel shortages in most major economies.â&amp;#x80;¯As a result, governments around the world are ratcheting up biofuelâ&amp;#x80;¯blend levelsâ&amp;#x80;¯to reduce reliance on uncertain oil imports, while biofuel producers now find margins more attractive, spurring output across key markets. These twin forces ofâ&amp;#x80;¯improvedâ&amp;#x80;¯economics andâ&amp;#x80;¯regulatory support</description><title>Middle Eastâ&amp;#x80;¯oil shocksâ&amp;#x80;¯renew global interest in biofuels</title><pubDate>18 June 2026 13:45:32 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Samyak Pandey</name><name>Aditya Kondalamahanty</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Agriculture, Refined Products, Energy Transition, Natural Gas, Crude Oil, Maritime &amp; Shipping, Biofuels, Fuel Oil, Diesel-Gasoil, Jet Fuel, Renewables, Emissions, Oilseeds, Vegetable Oils, Bunker Fuel June 18, 2026 Middle Eastâ¯oil shocksâ¯renew global interest in biofuels By Samyak Pandey and Aditya Kondalamahanty Editor: Surbhi Prasad Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Oil shocks drive global biofuel demand surge Governments raise blend levels amid shortages Feedstock prices and spreads rise on stronger margins The Middle East conflict has pushed crudeâ¯oilâ¯prices higherâ¯and causedâ¯fuel shortages in most major economies.â¯As a result, governments around the world are ratcheting up biofuelâ¯blend levelsâ¯to reduce reliance on uncertain oil imports, while biofuel producers now find margins more attractive, spurring output across key markets. These twin forces ofâ¯improvedâ¯economics andâ¯regulatory support areâ¯reshaping demandâ¯and pushing up the prices of agricultural feedstocks used to make biofuels. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/061826-interview-indias-renewable-energy-push-to-accelerate-but-hinges-on-faster-grid-build-out</link><description>India&amp;apos;s renewable energy capacity is poised for continued rapid expansion, but sustaining momentum would require prioritizing faster grid development, timely power purchase agreements and the integration of storage solutions, according to Avaada Group Founder and Chairman Vineet Mittal. India&amp;apos;s renewable power capacity, including large hydro, reached 279.26 GW at the end of April, according to</description><title>INTERVIEW: India&amp;apos;s renewable energy push to accelerate but hinges on faster grid build-out</title><pubDate>18 June 2026 15:15:30 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Ruchira Singh</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Electric Power, Renewables, Hydrogen June 18, 2026 INTERVIEW: India's renewable energy push to accelerate but hinges on faster grid build-out By Ruchira Singh Editor: Aastha Agnihotri Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Grid integration key challenge for renewable energy Aims for 11 GWp of renewable power capacity by 2026 Targets 13.6 GW of module output capacity by 2027 India's renewable energy capacity is poised for continued rapid expansion, but sustaining momentum would require prioritizing faster grid development, timely power purchase agreements and the integration of storage solutions, according to Avaada Group Founder and Chairman Vineet Mittal. India's renewable power capacity, including large hydro, reached 279.26 GW at the end of April, according to Central Electricity Authority data. The country recorded an all-time high in non-fossil fuel-based power capacity additions in 2025, driven by investments, supportive policies and higher power demand. "I believe the momentum will continue, although the nature of growth will become more sophisticated," Mittal told Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, in written answers to a questionnaire on June 16. "Growth will increasingly come from solar-plus-storage, wind-solar hybrids, firm and dispatchable renewable energy, round-the-clock [power], pumped storage, green hydrogen, green ammonia and corporate decarbonization demand," Mittal said. Rapid growth in data centers and artificial intelligence-driven digital infrastructure is expected to emerge as a major demand driver, said Mittal, whose company has 7.2 gigawatt-peak of operational renewable power capacity and 1.5 million metric tons/year of renewable ammonia projects in Rajasthan and Odisha. System integration The challenges hindering faster renewable energy deployment in India persist, but they are becoming more manageable as the ecosystem matures, according to Mittal. Curtailment remains an issue in some renewable-rich states, particularly when transmission capacity and demand planning do not keep pace with project commissioning, he said. PPA signing has improved in some segments -- particularly those linked to firm and dispatchable renewable energy, round-the-clock power, corporate PPAs and energy storage -- but delays still persist, Mittal said. Land continues to be one of the "most execution-sensitive" aspects of the business, while import dependency is declining but not yet eliminated, especially for cells, wafers and certain critical equipment, according to Mittal. "Our experience is that the sector has moved from a 'pure generation' challenge to a 'system integration' challenge," Mittal said. "Earlier, the question was: can India build solar and wind at scale? That question has been answered. The new question is: can we integrate renewables into the grid reliably, affordably and round the clock?" Avaada's goals Avaada is focusing not only on renewable power generation but also on storage, pumped hydro, manufacturing, digital project management, forecasting and green molecule integration -- areas that are as important as winning bids for renewable energy projects, Mittal said. "The target of about 11GWp by 2026 is an important milestone in our journey, and hopefully it would happen between December 2026 and at most by March 2027, and 30GWp by 2030 remains our broader ambition, depending on grid availability," Mittal said. "We are scaling our renewable portfolio with a disciplined approach -- focusing on quality of assets, bankable offtake, grid connectivity and long-term value creation." Earlier in June, Avaada Group secured $950 million in debt financing from a consortium of global and domestic banks for three utility-scale renewable energy projects. Avaada expects to have about 13.6 GW of module manufacturing capacity by 2027, while its 6 GW of solar cell manufacturing capacity is expected to become operational next month. The company is also focusing on high-efficiency technologies such as TOPCon, quality certifications, traceability and customer-specific requirements for both Indian and global markets. Manufacturing push The government's Approved List of Models and Manufacturers framework, which requires renewable energy projects to procure approved, domestically manufactured components, is a significant step forward in strengthening the Indian supply chain, according to Mittal. The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy issued the ALMM list-II for solar cells on July 31, 2025, extending the government's approved supplier requirement beyond solar modules to include domestically certified photovoltaic cells. "This will benefit manufacturers who are investing in real domestic capacity, technology, quality systems and backward integration," Mittal said. "For Avaada, this aligns perfectly with our strategy. We are not looking at module assembly alone. We are building an integrated solar manufacturing platform covering modules, cells, glass, and, in the future, upstream parts of the value chain." ALMM list-II is expected to create a more level playing field, reduce excessive dependence on imports, improve traceability and instill greater confidence among developers, lenders and customers, according to Mittal. "The goal is not merely to manufacture panels," Mittal said. But "to build a globally competitive, bankable and trusted Indian solar manufacturing platform." Pralhad Joshi, India's minister for new and renewable energy, stated earlier in June that India has achieved self-sufficiency in solar photovoltaic module manufacturing and, with the expansion of domestic capacity, is now positioned to export to global markets. Platts assessed solar module FOB India TOPCon at 25.15 cents/watt on June 18, down 4.2% from a month earlier. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/cost-cutting-is-eu-automakers-best-near-term-defense-against-us-tariff-pressures-s101690729</link><description>This report does not constitute a rating action. European carmakers&amp;apos; options to support their pressured credit quality remain few and uncertain amid U.S. tariffs that are likely to persist through 2027 and ongoing volatility in EU-U.S. trade relations. S&amp;amp;P Global Ratings considers EU original equipment makers (OEMs) have two main levers: near-term cost cutting and longer-term localization of production in the U.S. Our view of cost cutting as the key near-term option is underpinned by producers l</description><title>Cost Cutting Is EU Automaker&amp;apos;s Best Near-Term Defense Against U.S. Tariff Pressures</title><pubDate>17 June 2026 13:19:02 GMT</pubDate></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/private-markets-360-episode-8</link><description>Our very own President of S&amp;amp;P Global Market Intelligence, Adam Kansler, joins Jocelyn and Chris on the podcast to discuss our capabilities and offerings for private markets industry participants.</description><title>Private Markets 360 | Episode 8: Powering the Global Private Markets (with Adam Kansler of S&amp;amp;P Global Market Intelligence)</title><pubDate>06 December 2023 18:30:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Jocelyn Lewis</name><name>Chris Sparenberg</name><name>Adam Kansler</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Podcast â 7 Dec, 2023 Listen: Private Markets 360Â° | Episode 8: Powering the Global Private Markets (with Adam Kansler of S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence) By Jocelyn Lewis, Chris Sparenberg, and Adam Kansler Our very own President of S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, Adam Kansler, joins Jocelyn and Chris on the podcast to discuss our capabilities and offerings for private markets industry participants. With the end of the year in sight, Adam also dives into the themes that drove industry activity in 2023, and what he expects to see in the market in 2024. Check out the Private Markets 360Â° podcast series Click Here ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/sustainability-insights-research-safe-as-houses-rated-uk-rmbs-remain-resilient-to-physical-climate-risk-s101691976</link><description>Strong geographic diversification and structural features in U.K. residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) limit potential credit implications from increasing climate hazard exposure. This is the main finding of our research, which aims to assess the relative exposure to physical climate risks of the U.K. RMBS we rate (167 transactions backed by about Â£52 billion of residential mortgage loans); this research is not intended to signal near-term rating actions.</description><title>Sustainability Insights Research: Safe As Houses: Rated U.K. RMBS Remain Resilient To Physical Climate Risk</title><pubDate>18 June 2026 10:57:36 GMT</pubDate></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/061726-interview-wrtsil-warns-of-hurdles-for-low-carbon-bunker-use-amid-imo-delays</link><description>Shipping companies are facing greater challenges in transitioning to low-carbon fuels amid an uncertain, fragmented regulatory outlook following the International Maritime Organization&amp;apos;s failure to adopt a global decarbonization framework, according to the top marine executive of Finnish technology group WÃ¤rtsilÃ¤. The UN agency in October 2025 voted to delay the discussions of the adoption of</description><title>INTERVIEW: WÃ¤rtsilÃ¤ warns of hurdles for low-carbon bunker use amid IMO delays</title><pubDate>17 June 2026 17:09:46 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Max Lin</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Refined Products, Maritime &amp; Shipping, LNG, Chemicals, Fertilizers, Energy Transition, Fuel Oil, Bunker Fuel, Renewables June 17, 2026 INTERVIEW: WÃ¤rtsilÃ¤ warns of hurdles for low-carbon bunker use amid IMO delays By Max Lin Editor: Marieke Alsguth Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Shipowners face regulatory uncertainty More regional GHG rules are emerging Flexible fuel technologies could help Shipping companies are facing greater challenges in transitioning to low-carbon fuels amid an uncertain, fragmented regulatory outlook following the International Maritime Organization's failure to adopt a global decarbonization framework, according to the top marine executive of Finnish technology group WÃ¤rtsilÃ¤. The UN agency in October 2025 voted to delay the discussions of the adoption of Net-Zero Framework by a year, and a growing number of member states are calling for revisions to seek consensus. The framework was originally designed to place a cost on greenhouse gas emissions from ship operations from 2028, but the US has strongly opposed the carbo pricing element, arguing that it could lead to inflation. In an interview with Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, WÃ¤rtsilÃ¤ Marine President Roger Holm said shipping companies could struggle to shift to sustainable fuels financially and incentivize more production without a carbon pricing mechanism. Low-carbon fuels are more expensive due to limited availability. May's average delivered bunker prices for very low sulfur fuel oil were $18.56/gigajoule in Rotterdam, compared with $27.39/Gj for B30 with 30% used cooking oil methyl ester and 70% very low sulfur fuel oil and $35.90/Gj for bio-LNG, according to the Platts bunker cost calculator, which estimates fuel expenses based on Platts assessments from S&amp;P Global Energy. "If you don't have a cost of carbon, I don't think companies can afford to decarbonize," Holm said. "You need to find a way to bridge this gap slowly." Regulatory outlook The IMO delay has led to more uncertainty for shipowners, who do not know when a global regulation would be in place and are increasingly having to deal with regional regulations, according to Holm. "When you look at the regulations, I think the key here, first of all, is about predictability," the executive said. "[But there is] the uncertainty that the shipowners have to live with because they don't know exactly when will the regulation come into place." The EU has extended its Emissions Trading System to cover shipping since 2024 and introduced FuelEU Maritime rules on marine energy's GHG intensity since 2025, while the UK has proposed to cover international maritime transportation in its ETS from 2028. UK domestic maritime emissions will be covered from July. Meanwhile, Djibouti and Gabon have started charging ship operators for their emissions. China -- the world's largest seaborne trading nation -- has also been exploring maritime decarbonization rules. "I sincerely hope that we will have one global regulation, because now we are on a pathway where we have regional regulations," Holm said. "From a shipowner perspective, that's the worst possible situation because you don't want to have regional regulations." Flexibility As a ship's lifespan can usually last for more than 20 years, Holm said shipowners should seek "maximum flexibility" in fuel propulsion technologies while improving energy efficiency amid regulatory challenges. For example, a shipowner can choose to build a dual-fuel vessel capable of running on LNG and conventional fuels while preparing it for future conversion to be powered by methanol during the newbuild design stage, according to Holm. This flexibility could help shipowners when one of the alternative fuels becomes more available and cheaper as a compliance option for decarbonization rules. "If you go for flexibility, it's like you have a rather cheap insurance for changing the fuel during the vessel's lifetime," Holm said. The executive said shipowners can also save fuel expenses by adopting energy-saving equipment, such as gate rudders or supplementary batteries, which could be financially prudent regardless of the fuel choice. WÃ¤rtsilÃ¤ is one of the world's largest makers of four-stroke engines, used on cruise ships, offshore supply vessels and other ships in shortsea trades or smaller. The company has planned to expand its engine production capacity by 35% from the 2025 level by the end of the first quarter of 2028 before an additional 30% expansion in Q1 2029. "That's about our capabilities to even further accelerate development of engines running on green fuel," Holm said. "We have the technology. We have the engines ... [But] we lack the predictability of the regulations and we lack the fuel availability of green fuels." US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/refined-products/061726-europes-saf-strategy-risks-new-energy-dependency-without-diversification-skynrg</link><description>Europe&amp;apos;s ability to secure sustainable aviation fuel supply beyond 2030 will hinge on diversifying production technologies away from waste-oil-based pathways, as the region faces growing dependence on imported feedstocks to meet its own climate mandates, according to producer SkyNRG&amp;apos;s 2026 SAF Market Outlook. There is a structural mismatch in Europe&amp;apos;s SAF strategy, the SkyNRG report said June 16.</description><title>Europe&amp;apos;s SAF strategy risks new energy dependency without diversification: SkyNRG</title><pubDate>17 June 2026 14:36:08 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Thomas Washington</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Agriculture, Energy Transition, Refined Products, Biofuels, Renewables, Jet Fuel June 17, 2026 Europe's SAF strategy risks new energy dependency without diversification: SkyNRG By Thomas Washington Editor: Juan Tolentino Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS eSAF, advanced biofuels needed for long-term resilience Over half of EU biofuel feedstock already comes from imports SAF supply could narrow jet fuel supply gap Europe's ability to secure sustainable aviation fuel supply beyond 2030 will hinge on diversifying production technologies away from waste-oil-based pathways, as the region faces growing dependence on imported feedstocks to meet its own climate mandates, according to producer SkyNRG's 2026 SAF Market Outlook. There is a structural mismatch in Europe's SAF strategy, the SkyNRG report said June 16. While the region has established the world's most ambitious aviation decarbonization mandates through RefuelEU and the UK SAF mandate, its production capacity remains overwhelmingly concentrated in hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) technology, which processes waste oils and animal fats, and much of this comes from Asia. As such, Europe's current pathway risks trading one energy dependence for another, SkyNRG said. In 2022, approximately 70% of used cooking oil consumed in EU biofuel production came from imported raw feedstocks, with 68% of net UCO imports across the EU and UK sourced from China, Malaysia and Indonesia, SkyNRG said. By 2025, the share from these three countries declined slightly to 57%, though overall import volumes remained stable, SkyNRG said. "This increases exposure to trade restrictions, export controls, and rising domestic demand in exporting regions such as China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the United States," the report said. According to data from analysts at S&amp;P Global Energy Horizons, Europe will produce 533,000 metric tons, or 12,000 barrels/day, of SAF in 2026, equivalent to 32% of its demand. This imbalance exposes Europe to new forms of energy insecurity at a time when the region is already grappling with declining conventional refining capacity and heavy reliance on imported crude oil, SkyNRG said. Around 30% of Europe's jet fuel demand is currently met through imports, while over 80% of crude oil supply comes from outside the region, according to SkyNRG data. This exposure is expected to increase further as European fossil refining capacity could decline by more than 5 million b/d by 2050, SkyNRG said. SAF production could help maintain regional fuel production capability and reduce import exposure, SkyNRG said. The price gap between SAF and jet fuel is considerable. Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, assessed SAF on a CIF basis in Northwest Europe, produced via the HEFA pathway, at $2,726.75/mt June 16, compared with $957/mt for jet fuel cargoes on an equivalent basis. SkyNRG and airline KLM plan to launch production of 100,000 mt/year of SAF at the Netherlands' first dedicated SAF facility in 2028, according to its website. Technology diversification There is a feedstock challenge, which is intensifying as several Asian countries are taking steps to retain feedstocks for domestic refining and energy security objectives, SkyNRG said. China has removed export tax incentives and introduced controls on UCO, while Indonesia already restricts exports of palm oil mill effluent and used cooking oil. Malaysia is considering similar measures. "If these trade flows become disrupted, European HEFA facilities could face tightening feedstock access and increasing competition with renewable diesel and other biofuel sectors," SkyNRG said. A range of experts and policymakers identify e-SAF and advanced biofuels as critical pathways for improving Europe's long-term resilience. eSAF, which uses renewable electricity to produce synthetic jet fuel, accounts for 70% of announced feasibility-stage capacity in Europe and benefits from dedicated sub-mandates under RefuelEU and UK regulations, according to SkyNRG data. Advanced biofuel pathways also offer diversification potential, leveraging Europe's existing refinery conversion projects and approximately 8.5 million mt of ethanol production capacity, though additional infrastructure investment would be required, SkyNRG said. European policymakers are increasingly complementing binding mandates with investment support and de-risking mechanisms aimed at accelerating the commercialization of alternative pathways. These include the EU Sustainable Transport Investment Plan and the UK Revenue Certainty Mechanism, designed to reduce financial risk for first-of-a-kind advanced fuel projects. Current SAF trajectory If regional SAF production scales in line with European mandates, a further 8 million mt of capacity could be added, reducing the projected regional jet fuel supply gap to around 2 million mt, equivalent to roughly 5% of fuel consumption, SkyNRG said. In 2026, global SAF demand is expected to increase to around 3 million mt, corresponding to approximately 0.9% of global jet fuel demand, roughly equivalent to the total jet fuel demand of Vietnam, SkyNRG said. Under its central Current Trends scenario, global SAF demand is projected to reach 12.8 million mt by 2030, equivalent to 3.6% of global jet fuel demand. By 2050, SAF demand reaches 194 million mt, equivalent to 42% of global jet fuel uplift, SkyNRG said. According to Horizons data, global SAF demand in 2026 will be 2.89 million mt or 64,000 b/d. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/podcasts/commodities-focus/061726-indias-corporate-renewable-sourcing-are-irecs-losing-ground-to-vppas-amid-growing-demand</link><description>India&amp;apos;s corporate renewable energy market is entering a new phase. While international Renewable Energy Certificates still lead the way for buyers seeking flexibility, simplicity, and cost-effective compliance, larger corporates are increasingly exploring Virtual Power Purchase Agreements, financial contracts that allow procurement of renewable energy attributes without taking physical delivery of</description><title>India&amp;apos;s corporate renewable sourcing: Are IRECs losing ground to VPPAs amid growing demand?</title><pubDate>17 June 2026 11:47:51 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Vipul Garg</name><name>Ahmad afiq Muhammad zahir</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Electric Power, Energy Transition, Emissions, Renewables, Hydrogen, Carbon June 17, 2026 Indiaâs corporate renewable sourcing: Are IRECs losing ground to VPPAs amid growing demand? Featuring Vipul Garg and Ahmad afiq Muhammad zahir HIGHLIGHTS I-RECs lead India's renewable sourcing VPPAs gain traction among large corporates Oversupply shapes procurement strategies India's corporate renewable energy market is entering a new phase. While international Renewable Energy Certificates still lead the way for buyers seeking flexibility, simplicity, and cost-effective compliance, larger corporates are increasingly exploring Virtual Power Purchase Agreements, financial contracts that allow procurement of renewable energy attributes without taking physical delivery of the power. In a structurally oversupplied Indian I-REC market, rising issuance, cyclical demand, and price sensitivity continue to shape procurement strategies. Vipul Garg, Platts senior price reporter, environmental markets at S&amp;P Global Energy, joins Utsab Sil Roy, head of operations at Climate Cred, an environmental solutions company that helps businesses measure, report and offset their greenhouse gas emissions, and Ahmad Afiq, Platts senior I-RECs price reporter, to discuss pricing trends, growing corporate demand, India's energy procurement mix and government policies. Related content: APAC I-REC issuances, redemptions diverge in April; Singapore tops growth India's vPPA impact on I-REC market uncertain; cost remains barrier: sources I-REC India Solar Current Year USD/MWh (ANPNC00) I-REC India Solar Previous Year USD/MWh (ANPNA00) Spotify | Apple Podcasts View Full Transcript Vipul Garg: Hello and welcome to the Platts Commodities Focus Podcast by S&amp;P Global Energy. I'm your host, Whipple Gerk, and today we are looking at how India's corporate renewable energy procurement is evolving, particularly the growing role of instruments like international renewable energy certificates are commonly known as I-RECs, the emergence of VPPAs, also known as virtual power purchase agreements. For years, unbundled I-RECs have been the go to tool for companies looking to meet renewable energy targets in India, largely because they are flexible and relatively low cost. But as corporate emissions grow, there is increasing interest in more complex procurement structures. So is the market really shifting? What's driving buyer behavior and what do the underlying price trends tell us? To help us unpack this, I'm joined by two experts, first Utsab Sil Roy, head of operations at Climate Cred, an environmental solutions company that helps businesses measure, report, and offset their greenhouse gas emissions. And later in the podcast, we'll hear from Ahmad Afiq, senior price reporter at Platts, who covers I-RECs market and has been closely tracking price movements and supply demand dynamics in India's I-REC market. Utsab, let me start with you. How would you describe the current state of India's renewable energy certificate and corporate sourcing markets in 2026? What has been the most noticeable shift in buyer behavior over the past 12 to eight months? Are they scaling up? Utsab Sil Roy: So it has been quite a bit of up and down in the last couple of years. We were expecting this year, 2025, to have a higher demand, whereas it actually ended up being a little lower in India. But I feel that may be for multitude of reasons because some of our buyers who used to do halfway procurement ended up delaying the process for whatever the geopolitical reasons or anything like that, which is the whole thing is up for grabs to understand what the basic reason might be, but they did come back end of the year and did the procurement for the full year in one go. The mentality that I feel probably is shifting a little bit towards I-RECs now because it's a little easier and there's a lot of genuinity towards the product that is being supplied and used in the reporting process. Surprisingly, 2026 has started way better than the previous years. I mean, I'm unexpectedly seen a lot of demand right now. If I have to mention it's almost over half a million demand that we are seeing this year compared to last year when we saw around 300K or 400K. So there has been an increase this year. Vipul Garg: I also want to ask about how's the Indian market adopting VPPAs? How corporates in India are actually responding to the VPPAs today? Are we still in education mode or early execution? Are there any particular sectors or buyer types that are showing strong interest? Utsab Sil Roy: So since we do the reporting also of companies, so we have had a lot of discussions with companies who have tried strategizing towards how the mitigation method might be and how the use of certificates are. In a way, if you see, sometimes I feel clients get surprised at, "Okay, I'm just purchasing the certificate and I'm doing the redemption of it. And in the report I can showcase that I have become green or I've achieved my targets." And it's a weird mentality that I've seen that, okay, this cannot just be, "That's it." This probably has to be something more. And that's what VPPAs, it's a floating word where for us we generally work with midsize clients. And the midsize clients, which are factory owners or of a larger company that individual factories are offsetting themselves. So those individual factory owners sometimes ask us, "What is a VPPA? How can we get into that?" But from what I have seen, I think VPPAs have been more of a decision that is a collective from the management of a company, but the procurement of I-RECs are being currently done are based on the individual factories, the plant managers and the environmental people in a particular factory itself. So that has been a very big change that I think once corporates start seeing that, okay, we have six, seven locations across India and how can we cumulatively put an investment and get out of this market flexibility of what the price of an I-REC will be or the REC will be, I think VPPAs are going to become more and more prevalent. Vipul Garg: Amid this conversation on VPPAs, do you expect unbundled I-RECs to remain dominant in India or are they more of a transitional tool? And what kind of buyers will continue to rely on I-RECs even if VPPAs begin to scale? Utsab Sil Roy: So companies who are in mid-size will, I think, continue with the I-RECs because they don't want to put in such an amount of capital investment and the complexity of VPPAs. And to be frank, the VPPAs has to be first of all integrated with the Regulatory Commission of India, the national power policies and the state power policies. Those have to be very, very open about all these kind of new methodologies coming in and how the integration will be. Because if you see in India, the Gujarat state policy and probably recently Rajasthan also released a state policy about green commodities, how they're going to utilize, will the government take the advantage? Will the individual companies take the advantage? So there is a lot of decisions being taken as the advantages are being seen by the state governments also and the companies who are into this mitigation strategy through I-RECs or VPPAs. I feel if the concept of a VPPA is integrated with the open access policies in states, it can be a game changer and it can drive VPPA demands up quite a notch. But I still feel that the mid-size companies, the ones which purchase probably in the range of 5,000 to 10,000, 15,000 I-RECs every year, they'll probably still stick to I-RECs. And why I'm saying this is because we have actually signed contracts of 10 years, five years with a lot of clients who are looking at this as a long-term solution to their net-zero strategy. Vipul Garg: Thanks, Utsab. That gives us a strong sense of how buyers are thinking about procurement. But to really understand this market, we also need to look under the hood at how prices, supply and demand have been evolving. So let's bring in Afiq. Afiq, let's start with the price trends. What are the key factors driving the Indian I-RECs price movement in the past 18 to 24 months? And are these price cycles becoming more predictable? Ahmad Afiq: Thanks, Whipple. So over the past 18 to 24 months, we saw that the Indian I-REC prices have actually moved in a very cyclical way, but the moves are actually not random. So what's driving the swings is a simple tension. It's certificate availability versus buyer urgency in the markets. So if you take a late 2024 as an example, we saw that prices ease back and fall down towards around 40 cents per megawatt hour at that time because the market felt oversupplied. At the time, buyers had more choice so they did not need to act immediately. Then we saw as the year move into quarter four, 2024 and quarter one, 2025, the supply conditions tightened and price had recovered. A big part of that supply tightening at that time was also market structure and issuance discipline. When ICX became the sole local issuer in September 2024, we saw issuance controls tighten and reduce the risk of double counting, especially with VPH project. And there was some early adjustment friction, but the process had settled down now. And the certificates availability tightened in a more control way that supports stronger price levels in the market late 2024 and early 2025. And then after that, we saw the cycle fleet after quarter two last year, 2025. We saw that corporate buyers had worked through much of their near term redemption needs. So urgency fell down and there's uncertainty around emerging procurement options, especially the VPPA discussion that started last year. And it encouraged some buyers to delay purchases. And then we saw prices move down because of that from roughly around 90 cents to mid-40 cents by early November 2025. So yes, cycles are becoming more predictable and the repeating pattern is earlier recovery when supply tightens and corporates return. A mid-year soft patch as redemption urgency runs down and a late year pick up when demand re-accelerates and spot supply become constrained in the market. Vipul Garg: If we look at the Indian I-RECs prices, they look low. And the low prices show that despite strong growth in the corporate demand, as Utsab mentioned, the market still appears structurally oversupplied. How should we think about the balance between issuance and redemptions? Ahmad Afiq: Thanks, Whipple. So the first thing is to separate growth from urgency in the market. So in India, corporate redemptions, yes, are rising, but issuance is still rising faster than redemption. So even with improving demand over a year, we saw that the market stays structurally long. So why does that matter? Because India's renewable energy build out is moving quickly and wind and solar dominates the new capacity additions in the markets. That means the certificate supply engine keeps expanding. So the certificate pipeline grows at the same time that corporates are redeeming I-REC, but it has not yet caught up fully to the issuance. And that imbalance changes buyer behavior. And when certificates are available in volume, buyers will not feel forced to act or buy immediately. And they become more price sensitive and more discretionary, more willing to wait for better levels instead of paying up to secure scarce supply. And you can see that kind of over supply pressure in the way spot worked for vintage 2026 this year. So it started early this year around 70 cents per certificate. And as spot supply became easier to source in the markets, liquidity improved and price had softened to about low 60 cents in March. And then when spot availability tightened briefly in quarter two, prices ticked up modestly before the price is again once supply resume media, eventually pushing down toward the low 50 cents recently. So the way to think about issuance versus redemption is very simple. Redemption growth helps the Indian market, but as long as issuance still runs ahead, the market will stay structurally long. And that keeps downward pressure on prices. Vipul Garg: Thanks, Afiq. You also mentioned VPPAs earlier. To what extent are emerging instruments VPPAs changing how buyers participate in the I-REC market even before they are widely adopted? Ahmad Afiq: So even before VPPAs are widely adopted, they are already influencing what buyers do, but not in the sense of fully placing I-RECs overnight. We think that it is more about how corporates think and when they decide to move there. So in India, once the VPPA proposals started coming into focus last year, we did observe some corporates essentially did a quick wait and see behavior. They were asking few questions if VPPAs end up being RE100 accepted financial instruments. Do we lock in I-RECs now or do we pause until the framework becomes clearer? So even that kind of hesitation, especially if it spreads across several buyers can show up in a softer demand momentum. So that's why the early impact is mainly timing and expectations, not a sudden shift in market share. So that's it. I-RECs still have a strong value proposition in the market. They are simple, they are flexible, particularly for RE100 buyers who are early in their procurement journey or where setting up physical PPA is complex. And because India's power market is decentralized and state level rules differ, so that practical execution advantage really matters. So the big challenge or limited for VPPAs is still the economics part of it. Developer need returns to work and many expect VPPAs could be more expensive than using I-RECs alongside brand power, at least at the start. So the adoption will likely be credible and immediately. So in overall, the likely outcome is a split between VPPA and unbundled I-RRC, not a total shock. And even before the VPPA scale, they are already nudging bias to compare options more carefully and in some cases to delay purchases, creating a measurable effect on I-REC demand timing. Vipul Garg: Thanks, Afiq. That's really helpful in understanding the mechanics behind what we are seeing. Let's zoom out and look at what all of this means for the future of corporate sourcing in India. Coming back to Utsab. If we fast-forward three to five years, what does the ideal renewable procurement mix look like for an Indian corporate? Utsab Sil Roy: Thanks, Whipple. There are two kinds of buyers that we see these days. There's a wait and watch kind because they're still thinking where do we invest? If we have to invest in a particular technology that will give us green power, which is the most efficient one to invest now? And then there's of course the ones which they go all out and they try to be ahead of the market. But again, like I said previously, the people who are trying to be ahead of the market are the ones who are the much, much larger companies, the ones which have six, seven million tons of CO2 being released in their reports and stuff. They're the ones who are more focused on getting their renewable energy policies and renewal energy procurement done. Now, if you look at three to four years or five years, I feel there will be a shift towards more of a distributed power where morning power and evening power and all these kind of things are going to be very, very integral. And I think that can play a big role in the way the renewable procurement shapes up because then you're suddenly looking at wind power to be more prevalent or systems to be more prevalent or waste to energy to be more prevalent because you can produce those powers at the nighttime. Because when I look at the power strategy that is these days being discussed in the bureaucracy or anywhere, it is most like, even if you see the policies of the Indian government, they're trying to force BSS battery storage systems or wind power for nighttime power procurement because solar is rapidly rising. And I think people have to a certain extent realized that solar power is doable. It is very convenient, continuous source of energy that people can rely on. Vipul Garg: Thanks, Utsab. And finally to wrap up, what's one trend in the market that you think is currently underestimated and one risk that could slow down progress in India's corporate renewable sourcing market? Utsab Sil Roy: See, in India, if you have seen the trend of thermal energy, there has been orders from the government to increase the thermal capacity of the entire grid by 30, 40%. Now India is expecting a lot of industrialization to happen and all the companies that are coming in are coming in now with the strategy that they have to go net zero, they have to go carbon neutrality and all these things. So I think one of the particular methods in which there has been a lot of discussions and people are talking about is waste to energy. If you see the CBG investment that has gone in in the last couple of years with the government helping out with the subsidies and stuff, it has been surprising how the investors and the businessmen of India have so aggressively gone through this process from shifting their current business to investing in CBG as a source of energy. That is something that we feel that it can play a huge part, but it is being neglected. If something that can actually stop this, it is probably the availability of funds. There has a lot of it that has been invested in CBG has come through money outside India. I think the banks in India and institutional funds in India are still trying to figure out how best they can utilize things like green bonds or green funds or something where the Indian government has already released a lot of schemes for MSMEs, which people are so not aware of. The lack of awareness is very, very surprising to me. Vipul Garg: That's all we have time for today. My thanks to Utsab and Afiq for sharing their insights on a market that's clearly expanding. As you have heard, India's corporate renewable energy landscape is evolving, balancing rapid growth in demand and structural role supply and navigating the shift from simple certificate purchases towards more sophisticated procurement strategies. We'll be watching this space closely to see how the balance plays out in the months ahead. This podcast was produced by Chandreyee Mukherjee from Gurgaon. Thanks for listening and we'll see you next time. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/blog/crude-oil/011021-ctracker-carbon-prices-oil-inflation-henry-hub-inflation-kazakhstan-met-coal</link><description>We kick off this yearâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99;s Commodity Tracker series with a look at voluntary carbon prices as well as the correlation between commodities and inflation. The unrest in Kazakhstan, oil demand growth, metallurgical coal supply and Henry Hub prices are also in focus. </description><title>Commodity Tracker: 6 charts to watch this year</title><pubDate>10 January 2022 13:01:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Staff and Eric Yep</name></author><content><![CDATA[ 10 Jan 2022 | 13:01 UTC â Insight Blog Commodity Tracker: 6 charts to watch this year By Staff and Eric Yep We kick off this year's Commodity Tracker series with a look at voluntary carbon prices as well as the correlation between commodities and inflation. The unrest in Kazakhstan, oil demand growth, metallurgical coal supply and Henry Hub prices are also in focus. 1. Voluntary carbon prices expected to sustain upward momentum in 2022 What's happening? The Platts carbon price assessments saw an exponential rise in 2021. The Platts CORSIA-eligible carbon credits (CEC), the first assessment launched by Platts Jan. 4, 2021, surged 900% over the course of the year. The Platts CNC, which reflects nature-based credits, jumped 198.92% from its launch June 14, 2021. Earlier seen to be at a substantial discount to the CORSIA segment, non-CORSIA renewable energy prices slowly caught up and were at par with CORSIA prices Dec. 22, 2021, when Platts CEC and Platts renewable energy prices were both assessed at $7.40/mtCO2e. The sharp spike in renewable energy prices in October and November 2021 was primarily due to large-scale purchases of renewable credits by crypto traders. What's next? With governments and corporations the world over increasing their focus on net-zero and low carbon commitments, demand in the voluntary carbon market is expected to increase in 2022. Market sources have indicated that an increased supply of carbon credits is in the pipeline to meet the expected increase in demand. This is likely to keep prices moving upwards as the voluntary carbon market gains prominence as a tool for offsetting requirements. Further reading: Platts carbon credit assessments 2. US inflation and commodities in 2022 What's happening? Commodities in 2021 gained 37% as measured by the GSCI broad index, with energy commodities gaining 54%. Iron ore and precious metals lagged and declined on year 23% and 4%, respectively. Commodity improvement was driven by the continuing rebound in economic growth, which globally was about 5.7% on year, along with a continuing rise in implied inflation (measured as the difference between US, 10-year treasuries and 10-year treasury inflation protected security rates, or TIPS). Global central banks are increasingly tightening monetary policies to address inflation concerns. What's next? Commodity performance in 2022 will be driven by the fundamental balances within each product grouping. Demand for commodities will continue to normalize from the pandemic though the pace of improvement will slow from that seen in 2021, with global GDP growth slowing to 4.2%. Against this backdrop, inflation trends remain elevated, but may be near peaking. Energy price pressures also remain elevated but the year-on-year pressure will ease, even if short-term prices stabilize. The pace of monetary policy tightening remains problematic, but the degree of accommodation will decrease from what was provided during the pandemic in 2020 and 2021. Implied inflation trends may ease, which would be a headwind for commodities. 3. Kazakh unrest generates shockwaves What's happening? The Chevron-led consortium at Kazakhstan's highest-producing crude field, Tengiz, is moving to restore normal production after contractors at the remote Caspian site joined in anti-government protests. The resource-rich nation has been rocked by unrest, centered on Almaty, 2,000 km east of the Caspian near the Chinese border. Disruption prompted an uptick in prices of flagship CPC crude. However, on Jan. 9, Tengizchevroil, comprised of Chevron, ExxonMobil, KazMunaiGas and Lukoil, said it was "safely and gradually" returning production to normal. Tengiz, with recoverable reserves of 11 billion barrels, is the largest contributor to CPC, loaded on Russia's Black Sea coast. What's next? Markets will look for confirmation supplies have normalized. Companies involved at Kazakhstan's super-giant fields â including Italy's Eni, Shell and TotalEnergies â will be assessing a bout of instability that surprised in its ferocity, with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev calling for assistance from a regional security group led by Russia. Tengizchevroil is engaged in a $45 billion expansion project, with other projects planned at the similar-sized Kashagan field. Further reading: Kazakhstan unrest tests commodity power-house credentials 4. Omicron variant could slow pace, but not derail, Asian oil demand recovery in 2022 What's happening? Asia's oil product demand is estimated to have increased by 1.2 million b/d in 2021 after a contraction of 1.9 million b/d in 2020 due to COVID-19. The recovery last year had been bumpy and uneven across countries and products. Asian oil demand rose sequentially in Q4 as the region recovered from the slump earlier stemmed from surging COVID-19 cases in South Asia in Q2 2021 as well as Southeast and Northeast Asia Q3. What's next? S&amp;P Global Platts Analytics currently projects Asian oil demand to rise by 1.7 million b/d in 2022 in our reference case, reaching 103% of pre-pandemic levels, though the full impact of the omicron variant is still being assessed. Apart from China with a so-called "dynamic zero-tolerance" policy on COVID-19, most Asian countries are moving toward reopening despite seeing a rise in omicron cases. The risk of downward adjustment remains due to the re-imposition of restriction measures. Further reading: Commodities 2022: Asia's oil demand revival seen resilient, OPEC+ response key 5. Growing uncertainties hound met coal market What's happening? The seaborne metallurgical coal market entered 2022 supported by market fundamentals. Supply tightness has persisted outside of China, and the global steel demand has been evidently consistent. Market participants are eyeing the development of wet weather in east Australia and its potential impact on the seaborne price in Q1, following a year of historic volatility in 2021. What's next? With China continuing to reject Australian cargo and the spike in COVID-19 cases in many countries, market participants anticipate growing uncertainties on the price outlook in the near- to medium-term. While coal supply has remained tight, the health of the global steel demand could be a game changer to the supply and demand equilibrium in Q1. Further reading: Platts metals trade review 6. Henry Hub 2022 forward price curve in steady retreat at supply-demand outlook shifts What's happening? The US benchmark Henry Hub forward price curve for 2022 has been in steady retreat over the past several months, falling from an average $4.65/MMBtu in early October to about $3.70/MMBtu in early January. Persistent mild weather and historically weak heating demand has been responsible for much of the decline, which has been heavily concentrated in the winter-season contracts. On the supply side, gains in domestic gas production from Appalachia, the Haynesville and the Permian Basin have pushed total US output back toward pre-pandemic highs recently, topping 96 Bcf/d in late December. What's next? The combination of weak demand and strong production is giving a boost to previously flagging storage levels. The latest data from the US Energy Information Administration now shows an emerging surplus for the US inventory, which is expected to continue growing in the weeks ahead as mild weather persists. Reporting and analysis by Vandana Sebastian, Alan Struth, Nick Coleman, JY Lim, Kang Wu, Jeffery Lu, J Robinson ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/blog/metals/013123-ev-sales-momentum-to-face-challenges-in-2023-but-long-term-expectations-unaffected</link><description>Electric vehicle sales grew about 36% on the year in 2022, according to S&amp;amp;P Global Mobility estimates. The momentum, however, is at risk in 2023 due to several factors: the end of China s subsidies, E</description><title>EV sales momentum to face challenges in 2023, but long-term expectations unaffected</title><pubDate>31 January 2023 10:58:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Henrique Ribeiro</name></author><content><![CDATA[ 31 Jan 2023 | 10:58 UTC â Insight Blog EV sales momentum to face challenges in 2023, but long-term expectations unaffected By Henrique Ribeiro Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... Electric vehicle sales grew about 36% on the year in 2022, according to S&amp;P Global Mobility estimates. The momentum, however, is at risk in 2023 due to several factors: the end of China's subsidies, Europe's energy crisis and the consequent inflation, and recession fears in the US. China is by far the largest market for EVs. The country's new energy vehicle sales should have reached 6.7 million units in 2022, more than double the figures registered in 2021, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. NEV sales accounted for 33.8% of the country's total vehicle sales in November 2022, which has remained above 20% for consecutive nine months, S&amp;P Global calculations showed. Some of those sales in the later portion of the year might have been in anticipation of the expiration of China's subsidies on EVs, according to market participants. As 2022 came to an end, China's subsidy for pure battery EVs had the biggest drop since 2019, declining to nil from Yuan 12,600/unit. This was more than double the reduction of Yuan 5,400/unit in 2022 and Yuan 4,500/unit in 2021. China has subsidized EV sales since 2009 and has since established the roots for the industry. China dominates every step of the battery supply chain, except battery metals mining that depends on the minerals' natural location. This dominance has allowed Chinese OEMs to push down EV costs faster than the West, which might enable an organic growth in future regardless of subsidies. Sources said battery makers have been significantly reducing output since early December because demand in the coming months was not looking promising. "A lot of EV demand has been brought forward, so I think the first half of 2023 will not look good," said a source from a China-based lithium converter. Although the Chinese EV market should take some time to adapt to the new subsidy-free scenario, the situation is not all doom and gloom, said an Australia-based lithium producer. "There might be a deceleration in demand due to the end of Chinese subsidies for EVs, but not a decrease â deceleration and decrease are different things," the producer added. The reduced activity in battery and EV making has hardly hit Chinese lithium prices. Lithium carbonate DDP China fell to Yuan 457,000/mt Jan. 30 from a peak of Yuan 590,000/mt achieved Nov. 11, 2022. This was the lowest value since May 17, 2022, but still 18% higher than the price in Jan. 31, 2022. China's lithium carbonate prices will not tumble in 2023 even though supply will see an increase, because demand will remain strong at least in the first half of this year, said a China-based analyst. China's NEV sales will reach 9 million units through the year, up 35% from 2022, CAAM estimated. The resurgence of the pandemic in China is also considered detrimental to EV sales and battery production. Although many market participants said the impact would be restricted to the short term since the health crisis is expected to be temporary, a scenario in which the situation deteriorates over a prolonged period would significantly impact Chinese EV sales in 2023. Economic challenges in the West The two other bigger markets for EVs, Europe and the US, are also expected to face significant challenges this year, largely owing to macroeconomic factors and the overall outlook. According to a report from S&amp;P Global Ratings from Nov. 28, 2022, "economic momentum has slowed with a recession next year [2023] increasingly likely [in the US]. As extremely high prices damage purchasing power and aggressive Federal Reserve policy increases borrowing costs, we continue to expect a shallow recession for the U.S. economy in the first half of 2023. Our U.S. GDP growth forecast is 1.8% for 2022 and -0.1% for 2023, a bit weaker than our September economic update [1.6% and 0.2%, respectively]." The Inflation Reduction Act was created with the objective to boost EV sales in the US. However, most of the positive effects are not expected to be realized until 2024, according to some market participants. Beginning in 2024, buyers will be able to use the EV tax credit value to lower the price of the vehicle directly, instead of receiving tax credits. Contrary to its key purpose, the IRA in fact could raise some challenges related to the battery metals' and battery components' sourcing thresholds required to qualify for the $7,500 EV tax credits. In 2023, 50% of the battery components and 40% of the battery metals must be sourced within the US or a country with whom the US has a free-trade agreement for a vehicle to qualify for the full tax credits. These requirements rise progressively to 100% for battery components in 2029 and 80% for battery metals in 2027. "A number of US automakers have warned that the sourcing thresholds could hurt EV sales due to the difficulties in shifting the supply chain in the short term to become eligible for the tax credits," according to a recent report from S&amp;P Global's Metals and Mining Research. In Europe, persisting inflation and surging energy costs, spurred by the ongoing war in Ukraine, also pose significant risks. "The European economy's strong momentum will almost come to a halt early next year [2023]. Sticky inflation, stunted hiring, and higher interest rates will be clear negatives. [...] We continue to expect the European economy to contract around 1 percentage point of GDP over the next two quarters [Q4 2022 and Q1 2023]," said S&amp;P Global Ratings Nov. 28, 2022, adding that it expected nil GDP growth in the Eurozone this year. The economic difficulties should weigh on EV sales in these regions, since "the current higher EV prices compared to internal combustion engine vehicles should not be supportive for demand," according to another lithium converter source. Similar to China, state subsidies in Germany for plug-in hybrids expired at the end of 2022, and those for purely battery-electric passenger cars were reduced. But Germany's new electric car registrations increased 114% in December 2022 compared to December 2021, reaching a new monthly record of 174,200 units, according to the German Association of the Automotive Industry, or VDA. The record shows future EV purchases were brought forward, the VDA said. There are also major challenges such as the availability of charging points. Although there have been significant investments in charging infrastructure, most of those are still concentrated in China, totaling over 1.4 million EV charging points as of September 2022, versus less than 400,000 in Europe and about 140,000 mt in the US, according to data from S&amp;P Global Energy. "The automotive market remains adrift of its pre-pandemic performance but could well buck wider economic trends by delivering significant growth in 2023. To secure that growth â which is increasingly zero emission growth â government must help all drivers go electric and compel others to invest more rapidly in nationwide charging infrastructure," said Mike Hawes, chief executive of the UK's Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders. According to the SMMT, the government's EV Infrastructure Strategy forecast that the UK would require between 300,000 and 720,000 charging points by 2030. Meeting just the lower number would still mean more than 100 new chargers to be installed every single day. The current rate is around 23 each day. Lithium prices may follow downtrend The bearishness regarding EV sales in 2023 has directly affected the lithium market. Spot prices have been falling, particularly in China, and the short-term expectations are not positive. The latest Platts Battery Metals Outlook Survey found that more 50% of the companies surveyed expect Chinese lithium prices to average below Yuan 500,000/mt in 2023, and north Asian lithium prices to average below $70,000/mt. Even though the recent downtrend in Chinese spot prices was driven by a genuine drop in demand, a factor that needs to considered is that of traders willing to destock material purchased previously at lower prices to avoid the risk of selling at loss. This possibly deepened the recent price reduction since December but should therefore only be momentary, if so. Fundamentally, the lithium market remains tight. S&amp;P Global's Metals and Mining Research forecasts lithium chemical supply at 858,000 mt of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2023, up from the 668,000 mt forecast for 2022, while LCE demand was forecast at 856,000 mt, up from 684,000 mt in 2022. This would put the market in a marginal surplus of 2,000 mt in 2023, improving from a deficit of 15,000 mt in 2022. If any of the capacity expansions tabled for this year are delayed, or if quality requirements prove to be too difficult to achieve quickly (which historically has been common among lithium projects), the tiny surplus can easily turn into another year of supply deficit, assuming demand is not delayed by the potential slowdown in EV sales. As market activity resumes normalcy after the Lunar New Year holidays, the gaps in supply should progressively emerge that could halt the bear run. Pricing trajectory for the rest of the year will depend on how the supply-demand balance evolves and on the general market sentiment, which does not always capture the outlook effectively, often failing to realize the fundamental supply-demand balance. This was evident in the beginning of the bear run in late-2020 as several participants were surprised since they believed the industry was still sitting on three to six months of inventory, which was the case earlier in that year but had been absorbed. Regardless of the uncertainties for 2023, a price crash seems unlikely in most of the physical market â not only this year but also through the decade, due to the delayed investments in new capacity that are likely to take years to be realized. According to the International Energy Agency, it typically takes 16.5 years on average to move mining projects from discovery to first production. In the particular case of lithium chemicals, there are also additional complexities that do not exist in typical mined commodities, such as protracted qualification processes and necessity to ensure customer battery-grade requirements are fully achieved. Long-term EV fundamentals remain strong Despite the several risks for EV sales growth in 2023, the long-term shift away from internal combustion engine vehicles remain unaffected. S&amp;P Global Mobility projects that the share of battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and fuel-cell electric vehicles in new light vehicle sales in Europe, mainland China and the US will rise to 70%, 49%, and 47% in 2030, respectively, from an estimated 19%, 18% and 8% in 2022. "The past two years have witnessed â included from policy, industry and market perspectives â what in retrospect may be the seeds of an 'EV revolution'," S&amp;P Global Mobility said in a recent report. The most critical aspect supporting EV adoption is regulation: all of the key regions for automotive sales have witnessed policies being implemented â by both governments and OEMs alike â to drive the adoption and growth of EVs. In July 2022, China issued a proposal for automakers' new energy vehicle quotas that would increase to 28% in 2024 and 38% in 2025 from 18% in 2023. In the US, even before the IRA, the Environmental Protection Agency finalized greenhouse gas emissions standards for vehicles for the 2023-2026 period with a roughly 8% annual average increase in stringency. Furthermore, the EU is currently finishing new rules on CO2 emissions that would effectively ban sales of ICE vehicles in 2035. These policy directives have led automakers to announce ambitious plans for additional EV capacity, including the launch of new models. "Today, nearly all automakers have put zero emissions vehicles at the heart of their long-term strategies â and, perhaps more importantly, their medium-term investment plans," according to S&amp;P Global Mobility. The report emphasized that in some markets such as China, Germany, France and the UK, EVs are no longer a niche option and have already become mainstream. The shift to electrification of transportation seems to be an irreversible trend, but the transition could slow down due to raw material supply challenges, S&amp;P Global Mobility said. Battery-grade lithium, cobalt and nickel will all likely be in deficit in the coming years, supporting prices as demand outstrips supply. Higher battery costs, which increased in 2022 for the first time in over a decade, could delay electric vehicles' run to reach cost parity with ICE vehicles. This would intensify the difficulties generated by near-term global economic weakness, as well as limit the utilization of installed capacity for battery makers and automakers. With Jacqueline Holman and Analyst Lucy Tang In the latest Platts Future Energy podcast, we uncover the potential roadblocks facing the EV market in 2023. From lithium prices to government subsidies, learn how these factors may impact EV sales and the battery metals market: ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/infographics/horizons-energy-expansion-sustainability/clean-energy-pulse</link><description>S&amp;amp;P Global Energy Horizons Clean Energy Pulse tracks 65+ indicators to measure global clean energy growth momentum</description><title>S&amp;amp;P Global Energy Horizons Clean Energy Pulse</title><content><![CDATA[ S&amp;P Global Energy Horizons Horizons Clean Energy Pulse More than 65 key indicators. One essential outlook. Track the Trends Frequently Asked Questions: Horizons Clean Energy Pulse What is the Horizons Clean Energy Pulse? The Horizons Clean Energy Pulse by S&amp;P Global Energy Horizons is a comprehensive market intelligence report that tracks 69 distinct indicators to assess the momentum of the global clean energy expansion. To provide a holistic view of the energy transition, these indicators span a wide range of critical domains, including: Macroeconomics &amp; Policy: Physical climate trends, macroeconomic environment, and international/national climate policies. Markets &amp; Investment: Corporate climate commitments, environmental and carbon markets, and investor trends across the energy and utility sectors. Technologies &amp; Supply Chain: Deployment of renewable power and energy storage, low-carbon hydrogen, CCUS (carbon capture, utilization, and storage), electric vehicles (EVs), and biofuels. Commodities &amp; Emerging Signals: Commodity and component pricing, cleantech supply chains, and emerging trends like AI-driven power demand and advanced nuclear technologies. What question is each indicator of the Horizons Clean Energy Pulse answering? Every indicator in the report is evaluated to answer one core question: âDoes this signal suggest an acceleration (bullish) or a deceleration (bearish) of the clean energy expansion?â Because the energy transition is complex, no single indicator is sufficient to determine the overall pace of the market. Many signals have conflicting direct and indirect implications. By evaluating a diverse set of indicators together, S&amp;P Global analysts provide a directional, judgment-driven view of the market's true momentum. How often will the Horizons Clean Energy Pulse indicators be updated? To ensure clients have access to the most current market intelligence, most indicators are updated on a monthly or quarterly basis. The exact update frequency depends on the availability and reporting cycles of the underlying data. Does the graphic on this page represent the full Horizons Clean Energy Pulse report? No, this graphic offers a high-level summary of our findings. The full data, comprehensive analysis, and underlying metrics of the Horizons Clean Energy Pulse are exclusive to clients of S&amp;P Globalâs services related to clean energy expansion (Clean Energy Technology, Carbon and Scenarios, and Biofuels and Bioenergy). Interested in unlocking the full insights? Please fill out the âContact Salesâ form on this page to arrange a trial or request a personalized demo. Who can benefit from the insights and analysis in the Horizons Clean Energy Pulse report? The report is an essential resource for professionals navigating the global energy transition, providing actionable, data-driven insights for: Investors and Asset Managers: Capitalize on transition-linked equity performance, track capital flows, and monitor M&amp;A activities and valuations across the energy, utility and renewables sectors. Investment Bank Coverage Managers: Receive timely industry insights across sectors that enable you to spot deal opportunities, deepen client relationships, and pitch winning strategies to executives. Corporate Sustainability &amp; Procurement Leaders: Stay ahead of evolving corporate climate commitments (such as SBTi frameworks), carbon market trends, and clean energy procurement strategies like corporate PPAs. Energy, Power, and Utility Executives: Monitor near-term project pipelines for solar PV, battery energy storage systems (BESS), low-carbon hydrogen, and CCUS, while tracking emerging power demand drivers like AI data center load growth. Supply Chain &amp; Manufacturing Professionals: Navigate cleantech supply chain risks, monitor critical component and commodity price volatility (e.g., lithium, copper, and solar modules), and track regional EV and biofuel market dynamics. Policymakers &amp; Regulatory Analysts: Track global climate policy developments, including Paris Agreement NDCs, EU ETS carbon market revisions, and regional interventions impacting clean energy deployment. What guidelines are there for the use of the content in the Horizons Clean Energy Pulse? Use of the content on this page is governed by our website Terms of Use. Subscribe to our Horizons Clean Energy Expansion newsletter Sign Up Explore our Thought Leadership and Solutions Speak to a Specialist Ready to take the next step? Complete the form and a team member will reach out to discuss how our solutions can support you. ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/blog/energy-transition/061726-et-highlights-washington-carbon-vintage-costs-air-liquide-cement-philippines-solar-supply</link><description>Energy transition highlights: Our editors and analysts bring you the biggest stories from the industry this week, from renewables to storage to carbon prices.</description><title>ET Highlights: Washington carbon auction shows low future vintage costs, Air Liquide starts cement carbon capture pilot, Philippines solar supply lags</title><pubDate>16 June 2026 20:05:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Staff </name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Renewables, Emissions, Carbon June 17, 2026 ET Highlights: Washington carbon auction shows low future vintage costs, Air Liquide starts cement carbon capture pilot, Philippines solar supply lags Energy Transition Highlights: Our editors and analysts bring together the biggest stories in the industry this week, from renewables to storage to carbon prices. Top story Washington carbon auction clears slightly lower, pricing remains stable Washington stateâs latest carbon auction cleared slightly lower quarter over quarter, showing stable emissions pricing in the structurally short market and potentially relaying expectations of linkage with the much larger California market. Washington stateâs Auction 14 cleared at $64.56/allowance in the current year vintage carbon auction, according to June 10 data from the stateâs Department of Ecology. The auction was held June 3. Auction 14 cleared just 1% lower than the previous auction in the first quarter of 2026, despite selling smaller volumes of current-year allowances. The auction cleared 10% higher year over year compared to the second-quarter 2025 auction. In total, 6.7 million allowances were sold, with about 5 million being current-year allowances and 1.7 million being future vintage 2029 allowances. Compliance entities won 88% of current-year vintage allowances in Auction 14 and 63% of 2029 future-vintage allowances. Market participants said the auction was "pretty normal" and displayed a balance of supply and demand "for now." Benchmark of the Week $31.75/alw Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, assessed next-December California carbon allowances at $31.75 per allowance on June 12. Washington state is working through regulatory steps to link its carbon market to the joint California-Quebec market. Explore Platts Energy Transition Price Assessments Editor's Picks: Free and premium content SPGlobal.com Wartsila tests large-scale hydrogen-fired engine on Spanish power grid Energy technology group Wartsila has begun testing a large-scale engine running on 100% hydrogen, supplying power to Spain's national grid, the company said in a statement on June 11. The trial of the Wartsila 31H2 engine in Bermeo, northern Spain, aims to demonstrate how the technology could help balance renewable-heavy power systems as countries scale wind and solar capacity, Wartsila said. Green Carbon, KIH launch Vietnam AWD project aimed at JCM credit generation Japan-based developer Green Carbon and Seoul-based Korea Investment Holdings partnered on a rice cultivation project in Vietnam to generate carbon credits under Japan's Joint Crediting Mechanism, reflecting early-stage efforts to expand agriculture-based projects within the scheme. The initiative, located in Nghe An province, will focus on reducing methane emissions from rice paddies through alternate wetting and drying irrigation practices, with the eventual goal of issuing credits under the JCM framework, the companies said. S&amp;P Global Energy Core Air Liquide starts industrial-scale carbon capture pilot at Holcim cement site Industrial gases company Air Liquide has started its first industrial-scale carbon capture unit at cement giant Holcimâs Martres-Tolosane facility in France. Air Liquide said the success of the industrial-scale unit paves the way for future deployment of its carbon capture technology across the cement sector. The announcement comes amid a broader push by the global cement sector to invest in carbon capture and storage. Philippines solar demand surges but supply chains can't keep up The Philippines is experiencing an unprecedented rise in rooftop solar demand as households and businesses seek protection against volatile electricity prices and fuel dependency, but supply chain bottlenecks and regulatory delays are preventing the market from converting interest into actual installations, Brenda Valerio, Philippines country director at New Energy Nexus, said at a Global Energy Monitor webinar. Customer inquiries for rooftop solar systems jumped 582% after the Philippines in March declared a state of national emergency to address potential disruption in fuel supply. ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/electric-power/020425-eu-under-pressure-to-simplify-cbam-as-it-looks-to-combat-industrial-decline</link><description>Calls by the European People&amp;apos;s Party to delay the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism are unlikely to be heeded by Europe&amp;apos;s lawmakers, but demands for</description><title>EU under pressure to simplify CBAM as it looks to combat industrial decline</title><pubDate>04 February 2025 15:00:53 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Eklavya Gupte</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Carbon, Emissions February 04, 2025 EU under pressure to simplify CBAM as it looks to combat industrial decline By Eklavya Gupte Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Anxiety grows over impact of CBAM on EU trade EPP seeks two-year delay to carbon border tax EC likely to integrate some CBAM processes Calls by the European People's Party to delay the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism are unlikely to be heeded by Europe's lawmakers, but demands for a more streamlined mechanism with less red tape are gaining ground, market commentators told S&amp;P Global Energy. With the definitive phase of the EU's CBAM set to kick in from Jan. 1, 2026, importers of carbon-intensive goods face levies based on the emissions associated with their imports. Meanwhile, European industry is mired in an affordability and competitiveness crisis, with EU member states increasingly focused on industrial survival rather than decarbonization, according to Coralie Laurencin, senior director in the power and climate policy team at S&amp;P Global Energy. "If [CBAM is] working well, it will protect Europe's industrial competitiveness, at least for the cost of carbon. As it stands, it's not practical and has significant weaknesses," she said. "At the very least, Europe will simplify CBAM. Europe may then look to sacrifice some environmental integrity to make CBAM less cumbersome." The European Commission will release its Omnibus Proposal by the end of February, designed to disentangle the EU regulatory landscape. This is expected to include a simplification of CBAM processes and emissions reporting. Degrees of pain The EPP, the largest political group in the European Parliament, on Jan. 15 released a paper advocating for a two-year delay and a simplification of CBAM. The EPP, which championed CBAM during its inception, is now concerned the carbon tax could harm European competitiveness, especially if it leads to increased costs for businesses that depend on imports from countries with less stringent environmental standards. These concerns highlight the EPP's broader struggle to reconcile environmental objectives with economic growth. During a webinar Jan. 13, Martin Becker, deputy head of unit at the Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union, reassured industry participants that the definitive phase of CBAM would not be delayed. Energy has contacted the EC to confirm this. Dan Maleski, a senior environmental markets advisor at Redshaw Advisors, said CBAM would hurt European trade, but things would be worse if the tax did not proceed. "With or without CBAM, European industry will suffer as the total number of allowances declined and the current levels of free allocation cannot be maintained. Ultimately, European industry is not on a level playing field with its competitors, not only in the climate space but in a lot of other areas too," he said. "So CBAM is one solution, but it's not a silver bullet. It is supposed to halt that industrial decline. [But] it is still going to hurt industry, particularly those with high exports." Gabriel Rozenberg, CEO and co-founder of consultancy CBAMBOO, said a delay would not be good for business. "CBAM is designed to push European industry towards a decarbonized future, and if European industry does not decarbonize swiftly, then it will cease to be competitive with China [and others]," he said. CBAMBOO provides a platform for companies to manage their CBAM reporting and compliance obligations. Industry support While a delay is viewed as counterproductive, some industrial groups have called the mechanism to be revised -- notably the steel industry, which is facing overcapacity. The OECD estimates global steel overcapacity at 551 million mt -- four times the annual demand of the EU -- with projections for a further 157 million mt/year of carbon-intensive capacity potentially emerging by 2026. Without CBAM, steel prices could plummet further, exacerbating the challenges faced by European steel companies. European steel association Eurofer recently called for "major improvements" on CBAM while reiterating the need for it. Laurencin said CBAM might need some tweaks but canceling the tax would leave Europe exposed and require deep changes to its Emissions Trading System. CBAM covers imports of cement, iron and steel, aluminum, fertilizer, electricity and hydrogen. The levy is intended to reflect the difference between EU carbon prices and the carbon costs in exporting countries. Under the transitional phase of CBAM, which started on Oct. 31, 2023, traders must only report on emissions embedded in their imports without paying any financial adjustment. However, this mechanism is to be phased in from 2026 to 2034, in step with the phasing out of free allowances in the EU ETS. The fall in industrial and manufacturing output also led to a decline in the European carbon price last year. Though prices have recovered sharply so far in 2025, the suspension of Russian gas transit via Ukraine has led to higher coal power generation, boosting demand for carbon permits. EU Allowances averaged Eur66/mtCO2e ($68.13/mtCO2e) in 2024, down more than 20% year over year, Energy data showed. Platts, part of Energy, assessed EUAs for December 2025 delivery at Eur80.98/mtCO2e on Feb. 3. The main purpose of the tax is to reduce the risk of carbon leakage -- EU industries relocating abroad -- and encourage importer nations to introduce their own carbon markets, and so limit CBAM impacts on their traded goods. An analysis by Energy found that Brazil, Canada, South Africa and Turkey will be most exposed to the mechanism, with iron and steel the biggest sectors targeted. The growing anxiety surrounding CBAM reflects a broader struggle within the EU to balance environmental goals with economic realities. As EU policymakers move forward, companies want more certainty and less bureaucracy, and the EC will have to find a balance to meet these needs. Editor: Jonathan Fox ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/blog/crude-oil/021422-ctracker-russia-ukraine-energy-brent-crude-nuclear-power-fossil-fuels</link><description>Eyes remain glued on developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation, and how tensions are affecting energy and commodity markets. Prospects for fossil fuels amid nuclear outages in France and Japan are also in focus.</description><title>Commodity Tracker: 4 charts to watch this week</title><pubDate>14 February 2022 14:01:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>S&amp;P Global Platts</name></author><content><![CDATA[ 14 Feb 2022 | 14:01 UTC â Insight Blog Commodity Tracker: 4 charts to watch this week By S&amp;P Global Platts Eyes remain glued on developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation, and how tensions are affecting energy and commodity markets. Prospects for fossil fuels amid nuclear outages in France and Japan are also in focus. 1. Market shuns Russian barrels, while piling into Dated Brent What's happening? Dated Brent, which reflects North Sea cargoes loading up to 30 days ahead, is firming considerably more than the ICE Brent contract. This is causing an unprecedented backwardation of $5/b between prompt Dated Brent and the ICE nearby contract. After the usual minimization of year-end stocks, refiners in Europe rebuilding a more normal operating stock cushion are preferentially seeking local and/or short-haul grades, with North Sea and Urals being the natural choices. Refining margin strength is also supporting the demand for prompt barrels. The tension between Russia and Ukraine has resulted in hesitancy to commit to Russian barrels for fear of sanctions, which has caused a sharp widening in the Urals discount, even against Forties â a relatively similar grade. What's next? Depending on the evolution of the Ukraine-Russia situation, such strength on Dated Brent could evaporate if invasion risks are reduced. But it is also possible to see more buying pressure on prompt North Sea, if the situation escalates. Even so, the current state of Dated Brent will attract more US export barrels and possibly more West African barrels, which should help rebalance the market. 2. LME aluminum prices reach record levels amid supply tightness, global concerns What's happening? The LME cash aluminum price reached an all-time of $3,312.50/mt Feb. 10, exceeding the previous record level seen in July 2008, in part due to a series of ongoing smelter curtailments across Europe. Bullish power prices and persistent supply chain issues are reducing the amount of available metal. What's next? Market participants remain bullish despite the end cost of aluminum products such as primary and secondary aluminum increasing significantly alongside sustained increases to premiums. This is due to continued long queues for aluminum leaving LME warehouses at Port Klang in Malaysia, reducing the likelihood of the metal arriving in Europe, ongoing production cuts by Chinese smelters in response to emissions targets, and the uncertainty brought about by the tensions between Russia and Ukraine. 3. Outage issues for nuclear in France and Japan signal upside for fossil fuel generation in 2022 What's happening? Operators of Japanese nuclear power plants have published new maintenances, impacting output for the summer period. S&amp;P Global Platts Analytics now assumes generation of 5.6 aGW across summer (April to September) â a 2.3 aGW year-on-year decline in output. Meanwhile, in France state power company EDF has lowered its 2022 nuclear output target for the second time this year, projecting to produce the lowest amount since 1991 â at a time when gas prices in Europe have been at record highs and end user power bills are lifting by as much as 50%. Platts Analytics assumes 2022 output at the top end of the new 295-315 TWh range. What's next? In Japan, coal-fired power plants are expected to be highly utilized as generating electricity from coal-fired power plants will be more economical, especially for the first few months of summer. Coal-fired power generation should average around 30 aGW from April to July. Actual coal burn will depend on available power plant capacity, and there is still some uncertainty related to exact availability, because not all maintenances are published yet. In France, President Emmanuel Macron's announcement of plans for the country to build 14 new EPR nuclear reactors by 2050 underlines his intention to put nuclear â which dominates the French generation mix â at the heart of the country's energy transition plans. This comes at a time when neighboring Germany is on the brink of fully phasing out its own nuclear fleet. Platts Analytics expects nuclear generation in Western Europe to drop to half its current levels by 2050, as more plants close than are built. 4. LNG spot shipping prices plummet from all-time highs to near 52-week lows in about two months What's happening? Seven-year low Russian gas flows to Europe pushed the European spot price TTF to all-time highs and forced the continent to import a record high of 413 million cu m/d of LNG in January. With Platts JKM spending an unprecedented amount of time at a discount to TTF, the lion share of Atlantic Basin supply remained within the basin, limiting the longer-route inter-basin trade and suppressing demand for spot LNG ships. As a result, LNG charter rates collapsed from their all-time highs of above-$300,000/d to $30,000/d in roughly two months. What's next? The fate of Russian gas flows to Europe will be the primary determinant influencing the JKM-TTF spread and, therefore, the LNG spot shipping prices moving forward. While the de-escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will undoubtedly improve the spreads and help pull the tanker rates back to the historical averages, the prolonged tension poses the main downside risk to the forecast. Reporting and analysis by Sergio Baron, Alan Struth, Charles Thompson, Andre Lambine, Glenn Rickson, Ziya Cologlu. ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/061526-india-caps-jet-fuel-price-with-106-billion-fund-pivots-surplus-ethanol-for-2030-saf-target</link><description>India has capped domestic aviation fuel prices at Rupee 115/liter under a newly approved Rupee 100 billion ($1.06 billion) ATF Price Stabilization Fund designed to insulate commercial airlines from global crude market shocks, a government minister said. In tandem with stabilizing current aviation costs, the move is meant to use the country&amp;apos;s surplus biofuel capacity to reduce fossil fuel imports.</description><title>India caps jet fuel price with $1.06 billion fund, pivots surplus ethanol for 2030 SAF target</title><pubDate>15 June 2026 22:42:55 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Samyak Pandey</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Agriculture, Energy Transition, Refined Products, Chemicals, Biofuels, Renewables, Jet Fuel, Gasoline, LPG, Naphtha, Solvents &amp; Intermediates June 15, 2026 India caps jet fuel price with $1.06 billion fund, pivots surplus ethanol for 2030 SAF target By Samyak Pandey Editor: Derek Sands Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS India caps aviation fuel at Rupee 115/liter Government allocates $1.06 bil for ethanol SAF Policy mandates 5% SAF blending in jet fuel India has capped domestic aviation fuel prices at Rupee 115/liter under a newly approved Rupee 100 billion ($1.06 billion) ATF Price Stabilization Fund designed to insulate commercial airlines from global crude market shocks, a government minister said. In tandem with stabilizing current aviation costs, the move is meant to use the country's surplus biofuel capacity to reduce fossil fuel imports. The mechanism is designed to insulate commercial airlines from global crude market shocks, particularly amid rising costs linked to geopolitical tensions, as jet-fuel prices account for up to 40% of airlines' operating costs. The policy framework for SAF production in the country is nearing completion, with the petroleum ministry working toward a phased roadmap that will mandate a 5% SAF blending target by 2030, Union Road Transport and Highways Minister Nitin Gadkari said at the Sugar, Ethanol and Bioenergy conference in Mumbai June 12-13. "If we make aviation fuel from ethanol, I believe it will certainly be economically viable," Gadkari said. "And by doing so, our country will no longer run on aviation fuel. Now the world market is open to us. We'll export all that aviation fuel to the world." The SAF initiative comes as India grapples with 8 billion-9 billion liters of surplus ethanol production capacity, with domestic output reaching 20 billion liters/year ,while oil marketing companies procure only 11 billion-12 billion liters annually for the E20 gasoline blending mandate. India imports fossil fuel worth Rupee 22-23 trillion ($233.5-$244 billion) annually, accounting for 87% of the country's oil requirements, making it the world's second-largest fossil fuel importer, Gadkari said. Global SAF momentum The SAF policy aligns with global aviation decarbonization efforts, with Europe already mandating 2% SAF blending. SAF can be blended up to 50% with conventional jet fuel and delivers 80% greenhouse gas emissions savings compared to petroleum-based jet fuel, Gadkari said. "In Europe, 2% use of this sustainable aviation fuel has come to the pipe, mandatory," Gadkari said. "There is also 80% saving on greenhouse gas emissions in this, and it can blend up to 50%." The Indian Air Force has successfully tested SAF in fighter jets, demonstrating the fuel's technical viability for military and commercial aviation applications, the minister said. The SAF push is part of a broader biofuel strategy that includes the recent launch of flex-fuel vehicles and E85 retail infrastructure. Hero MotoCorp launched flex-fuel motorcycle variants on June 3, followed by Maruti Suzuki's flex-fuel Wagon R. Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum began selling E85 fuel at about 50 retail outlets on June 5. Twelve automobile manufacturers, including Tata, Mahindra, Hyundai and Toyota, are developing 100% ethanol flex-engine vehicles, the minister said. 2G projects Gadkari highlighted a flagship project in Panipat operated by Indian Oil that converts rice straw â typically burned by farmers in Punjab and Haryana â into biofuels. The facility processes 250,000 mt of rice straw to produce 100,000 liters/d of ethanol, 150 mt/d of bio-CNG, with 88,000 mt/year of sustainable aviation fuel. "In Panipat, we have an Indian Oil project, which is my dream project, which is a matter of great pride," Gadkari said. "The rice which Punjab and Haryana burn is being properly utilized and value is also created in it." In Assam's Numaligarh, the government is producing ethanol from bamboo, while experiments are underway to produce isobutanol from ethanol as a diesel alternative, the minister said. Gadkari acknowledged feedstock challenges, noting that India generates 750 million tons of agricultural waste annually that could be converted to biofuels. The country is building 4,000 compressed biogas plants, with 150-200 currently operational. "India generates 750 million tons of agricultural waste annually," Gadkari said. "We will be able to produce bio-CNG from these plants." Gadkari positioned biofuels as complementary to EV rather than competing technologies. "We have to explore all the alternatives for the country," he said. "Converting these to biofuels as an alternative is in the interest of society and the country." Platt, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, assessed sustainable aviation fuel HEFA-SPK FOB Straits at $2,555/mt on June 15, down $30/mt from June 12. The SAF FOB Straits premium was assessed at $1,627.50/mt over Platts Jet Kero FOB Singapore forward curve (MOPs), up $32.25/mt from June 12. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/061626-china-mandates-energy-efficiency-compliance-for-9-heavy-industries-by-2028-report</link><description>China has set a strict 2028 deadline for nine key industries to meet specified energy-efficiency benchmarks, China&amp;apos;s state-owned news agency Xinhua reported June 15, citing the National Development and Reform Commission. Notice No. 698, issued June 15, targets the steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, ammonia, methanol and coal-fired power generation sectors ---</description><title>China mandates energy efficiency compliance for 9 heavy industries by 2028: report</title><pubDate>16 June 2026 14:16:56 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Ruchira Singh</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Carbon, Emissions June 16, 2026 China mandates energy efficiency compliance for 9 heavy industries by 2028: report By Ruchira Singh Editor: Surbhi Prasad Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Heavy industries face strict compliance Less than 30% capacity meets top-tier standards: S&amp;P Global Energy analyst Multi-pronged mechanism for bridging gap: analyst China has set a strict 2028 deadline for nine key industries to meet specified energy-efficiency benchmarks, China's state-owned news agency Xinhua reported June 15, citing the National Development and Reform Commission. Notice No. 698, issued June 15, targets the steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, ammonia, methanol and coal-fired power generation sectors --- the heavy greenhouse gas emitters, it said. The development signals a shift from voluntary decarbonization to mandatory compliance, an S&amp;P Global Energy analyst said. "This is more like a cap and trade for existing heavy carbon emission industries project, said Jingze Zhu, analyst for hydrogen at S&amp;P Global Energy Horizons, said June 16. "The policy enforces a strict deadline -- by the end of 2028, the nine key industries must comply with designated energy efficiency benchmarks." Currently, less than 30% of the production capacity in these heavy sectors meets top-tier energy standards, Zhu said. To bridge this decarbonization gap, the framework uses a multi-pronged approach -- central government subsidies covering up to 20% of project capital expenditures; and differential electricity pricing adding up to Yuan 100/MWh ($14.8/MWh) on a market-trading basis, Zhu said. It also includes a carbon emission quota swap system, she added. This swap system allows enterprises to leverage verified emissions reductions from retrofitted existing facilities as offsets to secure local government approvals for new projects, she said. China has been taking several steps to reduce emissions across all sectors. A subsidiary of the China Energy Group achieved a 50% cofiring ratio of renewable hydrogen in its 40-megawatt boiler at the Clean Combustion Engineering Laboratory, a step toward decarbonizing the power sector, according to CHN Energy Newspaper, a publication of the state-owned CHN Energy Group, on June 8. According to data from S&amp;P Global Energy, China's greenhouse gas emissions are seen falling from 14.37 billion metric tons of CO2 equivalent in 2025 to 13.14 mtCO2e in 2030 including CCUS, in a base case scenario. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/061626-south-koreas-clean-hydrogen-plan-to-keep-pace-with-market-development-govt-official</link><description>South Korea is aligning its clean hydrogen power rollout with global market realities and technology maturity, even as initial projects under earlier auctions are unlikely to materially reduce emissions by 2030, a senior government official told Platts, a part of S&amp;amp;P Global Energy, June 16. The country will conduct an auction for 500 gigawatt-hours/year of clean hydrogen-based power, alongside 930</description><title>South Korea&amp;apos;s clean hydrogen plan to keep pace with market development: govt official</title><pubDate>16 June 2026 12:57:24 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Ruchira Singh</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Hydrogen June 16, 2026 South Korea's clean hydrogen plan to keep pace with market development: govt official By Ruchira Singh Editor: Manish Parashar Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Bids for 500 GWh/year low-carbon hydrogen in H2 2026 Scaled-down plan still significant for market development KOSPO won 750 GWh/y capacity in 2024 for cofiring South Korea is aligning its clean hydrogen power rollout with global market realities and technology maturity, even as initial projects under earlier auctions are unlikely to materially reduce emissions by 2030, a senior government official told Platts, a part of S&amp;P Global Energy, June 16. The country will conduct an auction for 500 gigawatt-hours/year of clean hydrogen-based power, alongside 930 GWh of general hydrogen power, with bids expected to open in the second half of the year, excluding coal-ammonia cofiring from the clean hydrogen category. "The CHPS scheme is expected to be implemented while taking into account global trends in green and clean hydrogen prices," the official from the Hydrogen Economy Planning Division of the Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment said in replies to an emailed questionnaire. The official, who could not be named due to the government's policy, said it will also take into account "the commercialization timeline of hydrogen turbines." South Korea launched the first auction under CHPS in 2024, inviting bids for 6,500 GWh/year of low-carbon hydrogen-based power, but awarded only 750 GWh/year to state-run utility Korea Southern Power for ammonia-coal cofiring. In 2025, it said a smaller auction of 3,000 GWh/year of low-carbon hydrogen to power will be held, but ended up canceling the plan due to limited participation in the nascent market. However, even at a reduced scale, the auctions will help evolve the market and refine the system through learnings as the Asia-Pacific region takes early steps for creating a clean fuels market, according to Yu Kashiwagi, principal analyst -- hydrogen at S&amp;P Global Energy Horizons. "Auction results provide price discoveryâwhat can be procured at what costâdriving cost reductions and informing policy improvements," the analyst said. Auction details The opening and closing dates for the bids have not been decided yet, but it is likely to be concluded in H2 2026, according to the official. "We are now going through a stage of public notice period from June 10 to 30 ... It is likely to happen within the second half of the year, hopefully soon," the official said. The auction price cap will be set just before the bidding deadline. The grace period for bidders to produce clean hydrogen domestically after 2029 will be decided after the public notice period concludes, following discussions with relevant experts, the official said. The government's auction aims to create market-based offtake demand for power generators based on price and terms, Kashiwagi said, reflecting the official's views. "In the early phase, when supply and infrastructure are still developing, they [auctions] prioritize the most feasible end-uses and quality tiers to improve bankability," Kashiwagi added. Platts assessed the India Renewable Hydrogen Term Contract at $3.26/kg (weekly assessment), up 1.88% from a year ago. Infrastructure readiness Regarding infrastructure to support domestic clean hydrogen production, the official said adequacy would depend on which power companies win the auction. "They can build their own infrastructure from the start and use them, or they can use the ones that are already built," the official said. "Either way, we will be making sure it does not fall short." Data from the Hydrogen Infrastructure Database by Horizons showed South Korea has about four ammonia cracking units in the design stage, one of the largest being the 133,000 metric tons/year hydrogen equivalent at the KNOC cracker phase 2, which is also situated at an importing port project. Looking at the big picture, by 2030, it is anticipated that only one coal-ammonia cofiring power plant -- KOSPO -- awarded in the 2024 bidding, will be in commercial operation, the official said. "As a result, its contribution to carbon emissions reduction is expected to be limited and not significant." US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/061026-dragonfly-taps-axens-for-modular-saf-refineries-in-africa-caribbean</link><description>French technology provider Axens has agreed to license its vegan hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids process technology to UAE clean energy company Dragonfly for the development of multiple sustainable aviation fuel production facilities across Africa and the Caribbean, the companies said June 10. The collaboration will see Dragonfly deploy Axens&amp;apos; hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids pathway in</description><title>Dragonfly taps Axens for modular SAF refineries in Africa, Caribbean</title><pubDate>10 June 2026 18:57:33 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Samyak Pandey</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Agriculture, Energy Transition, Refined Products, Biofuels, Renewables, Jet Fuel June 10, 2026 Dragonfly taps Axens for modular SAF refineries in Africa, Caribbean By Samyak Pandey Editor: Juan Tolentino Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Axens licenses SAF tech to Dragonfly Modular refineries target Africa, Caribbean HEFA pathway converts waste oils to fuel French technology provider Axens has agreed to license its vegan hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids process technology to UAE clean energy company Dragonfly for the development of multiple sustainable aviation fuel production facilities across Africa and the Caribbean, the companies said June 10. The collaboration will see Dragonfly deploy Axens' hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids pathway in modular refinery units designed to convert waste cooking oils, animal fats and vegetable oils into SAF, targeting markets where traditional large-scale infrastructure has proven uneconomical or logistically challenging. Axens will supply integrated catalyst and adsorbent solutions, proprietary equipment and operational support services as part of the licensing agreement. At the same time, Dragonfly will handle project execution through its modular design platform, which the company said can deliver refineries at one-tenth the scale of conventional facilities. Licensing model The partnership follows a similar structure to recent Axens collaborations, including agreements with US-based XCF Global in April and Southern Energy Renewables for biomass-to-SAF projects in Louisiana. Under those deals, Axens retained direct licensing relationships with end customers while partnering with project developers to deploy and execute. Dragonfly said its approach combines in-house fabrication of modular units with guaranteed feedstock supply and digital supply chain authentication, aiming to reduce both capital costs and carbon intensity compared with traditional refinery models. The company's refineries are designed to co-locate within existing terminals or refineries to create localized biofuel streams from regional waste. "Our highly-proven proprietary process, adopted by a wide range of operators all over the world and taking advantage of our latest catalyst developments, delivering full-SAF yield is a perfect match for Dragonfly's projects and boosts their profitability," Axens CEO Quentin Debuisschert said in a statement. Dragonfly CEO Karl Feilder said the partnership would enable the company to "deliver world-class solutions at a scale that is 10 times smaller, leveraging shorter upstream and downstream supply chains." Navigate a challenging complex The agreement comes as SAF producers face mounting pressure to scale output amid tightening decarbonization mandates in Europe and North America, while navigating persistent challenges about feedstock availability, project financing and cost competitiveness with conventional jet fuel. HEFA-based SAF, which uses waste oils and fats as feedstock, remains the dominant production pathway globally but faces supply constraints as demand for lipid-based feedstocks rises across multiple sectors. Industry participants have increasingly pointed to the need for diversified pathways, including alcohol-to-jet and power-to-liquids routes, to meet long-term aviation decarbonization targets. Axens, a unit of IFP Group, has licensed more than 3,000 industrial units globally and provides technologies spanning oil and biomass conversion, natural gas treatment and carbon capture. Dragonfly is developing a distributed platform of modular refineries to produce SAF and hydrotreated vegetable oil from lipid-based waste. The company said its compact, factory-built units are designed for faster deployment and lower infrastructure requirements compared with traditional refineries. The companies did not disclose financial terms, project timelines or specific site locations for the planned facilities. Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, last assessed SAF California at 1035.1 cents/gal and SAF (H-S) CA (credits det) at 541.24 cents/gal on June 9, based on a spread of neat SAF to Jet Kero LA CA pipeline of 190.06 cents/gal. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/060126-xcf-advances-toward-commercial-saf-output-with-catalyst-delivery-completes-key-upgrades</link><description>XCF Global has completed critical refinery upgrades and received process catalyst at its New Rise Renewables Reno facility in Nevada, advancing the plant toward an expected early June 2026 production start as the company positions to scale domestic sustainable aviation fuel supply amid tightening global mandates, the Houston-based producer said June 1. The catalyst delivery and initiation of</description><title>XCF advances toward commercial SAF output with catalyst delivery, completes key upgrades</title><pubDate>01 June 2026 17:16:38 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Samyak Pandey</name><name>Janet McGurty</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Agriculture, Energy Transition, Refined Products, Biofuels, Renewables, Jet Fuel June 01, 2026 XCF advances toward commercial SAF output with catalyst delivery, completes key upgrades By Samyak Pandey and Janet McGurty Editor: Karla Sanchez Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS XCF receives catalyst for SAF production start Nevada facility targets June 2026 operations Plant capacity reaches 38 million gal/year XCF Global has completed critical refinery upgrades and received process catalyst at its New Rise Renewables Reno facility in Nevada, advancing the plant toward an expected early June 2026 production start as the company positions to scale domestic sustainable aviation fuel supply amid tightening global mandates, the Houston-based producer said June 1. The catalyst delivery and initiation of catalyst loading represent the final major material requirement before the facility transitions from commissioning to commercial operations, the company said. The 38 million gallons/year plant is expected to become a revenue-generating asset once production begins, subject to final commissioning activities and standard start-up procedures. The completed upgrade work includes catalyst replacement, targeted equipment enhancements, and heat-exchange improvements designed to support operational stability, plant performance, and fuel-quality objectives, XCF said. "The successful delivery and receipt of our process catalyst at New Rise Reno marks a pivotal operational milestone in the refinery's modernization program," CEO Chris Cooper said. "With catalyst loading now underway, we have entered the final sequencing phase ahead of expected commercial production operations and remain on schedule with our previously communicated timeline." Production timeline XCF highlighted its positioning within the evolving US biofuel policy landscape as the company prepares to restart production at its Nevada facility, citing the EPA's final Renewable Fuel Standard rule as supportive of long-term growth in SAF and renewable diesel markets. The company confirmed earlier that catalyst delivery for the Reno facility remains on track, with the isomerization catalyst scheduled to arrive slightly ahead of schedule, subject to customary international shipping and customs processes. The facility upgrades include catalyst replacement, a new heat exchanger to improve heat recovery and product quality, and equipment modifications to reduce operational disruptions at lower flow rates. The New Rise Reno facility is XCF's flagship production asset and has a permitted nameplate production capacity of 38 million gal/year. The company said the progress at the facility supports its broader strategy to expand domestic low-carbon fuel production and advance the availability of SAF in North America. The company secured $10 million in private funding in April to support the Reno conversion, satisfying a critical financing condition tied to its proposed three-party merger with DevvStream Corp. and Southern Energy Renewables Inc. XCF also signed a binding term sheet with BGN INT US in April for a renewable fuels tolling and distribution partnership centered on the Reno facility. Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, last assessed SAF prices in California at 968.30 cents/gallon and assessed SAF (H-S) prices in California (credits det) at 563.94 cents/gal on May 27, based on a spread of neat SAF to jet kerosene Los Angeles, California, pipeline prices of 200.05 cents/gal. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/credit-faq-rising-us-petrochemical-earnings-could-lift-credit-quality-s101689147</link><description>This report does not constitute a rating action. The war in the Middle East has swung the global petrochemical market into a supply deficit after years of the market being oversupplied. We think this temporary deficit and attendant price gains will extend at least briefly beyond the conclusion of the war. Here, S&amp;amp;P Global Ratings presents frequently asked questions from investors about the warâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99;s impact on credit quality at U.S. petrochemical companies and specifically on The Dow Chemical Co. (</description><title>Credit FAQ: Rising U.S. Petrochemical Earnings Could Lift Credit Quality</title><pubDate>15 June 2026 14:27:23 GMT</pubDate></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/us-and-canada-economic-data-highlights-week-of-june-15-2026-s101691258</link><description>This report does not constitute a rating action. SAN FRANCISCO (S&amp;amp;P Global Ratings) June 15, 2026--S&amp;amp;P Global Ratings expects the Federal Reserve to keep the policy rate unchanged at 3.50%â&amp;#x80;&amp;#x93;3.75%. This would mark the fourth consecutive pause on raising rates in 2026 as policymakers remain cautious amid a still-uncertain inflation outlook. Meanwhile, we expect nominal retail sales to edge up by 0.2% month-over-month in May (versus 0.5% in April), reflecting higher gasoline station sales. What fo</description><title>U.S. And Canada Economic Data Highlights: Week Of June 15, 2026</title><pubDate>15 June 2026 17:01:49 GMT</pubDate></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/refined-products/061526-global-saf-market-needs-long-term-contracts-to-unlock-investment-experts</link><description>Europe&amp;apos;s sustainable aviation fuel industry faces a structural supply deficit that cannot be resolved without significant production capacity from the Asia-Pacific and binding long-term contracts that unlock investment in large-scale facilities, according to industry experts. The challenge stems from a fundamental mismatch between Europe&amp;apos;s binding SAF blending mandates under the RefuelEU Aviation</description><title>Global SAF market needs long-term contracts to unlock investment: experts</title><pubDate>15 June 2026 10:17:14 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Thomas Washington</name><name>Mia Pei</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Agriculture, Energy Transition, Refined Products, Biofuels, Renewables, Jet Fuel June 15, 2026 Global SAF market needs long-term contracts to unlock investment: experts By Thomas Washington and Mia Pei Editor: Ribhu Ranjan Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS SAF industry requires 10-15 years contracts Asia-Pacific feedstock advantage critical for EU compliance China's SAF capacity to grow over 14 mil mt by 2028: Veridian Europe's sustainable aviation fuel industry faces a structural supply deficit that cannot be resolved without significant production capacity from the Asia-Pacific and binding long-term contracts that unlock investment in large-scale facilities, according to industry experts. The challenge stems from a fundamental mismatch between Europe's binding SAF blending mandates under the RefuelEU Aviation regulation and the fragmented, pilot-stage nature of global supply chains. While Europe requires 2% SAF blending in 2025, rising to 70% by 2050, current production capacity remains insufficient to meet these targets without imports from regions with stronger feedstock advantages, particularly Asia-Pacific countries including India, Malaysia, Thailand and Australia. "What the SAF market needs now is not more pilots, but more long-term contracts that allow capital to flow into production assets," Will Symons, sustainability leader at Deloitte Asia-Pacific, told Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, June 12. The core obstacle is a classic investment deadlock: producers require guaranteed demand over 10 to 15 years before committing capital to new facilities, while airlines hesitate to sign large offtake agreements without confidence in future supply availability and pricing, Symons said. This chicken-and-egg dilemma has stalled numerous projects at the final investment decision stage, despite growing regulatory pressure on airlines to secure compliant fuel, he said. Breaking this impasse requires mechanisms beyond voluntary initiatives, Symons said. Early-stage projects might benefit from government underwriting or production credits, while the next phase of market maturity will demand multiyear offtake agreements, aggregated demand pools, corporate co-investment models and risk-sharing mechanisms across airlines, he said. SAF in Europe has seen its premium over product in Asia grow since the war in the Middle East started at the end of February, but it has been volatile during that period. Platts assessed SAF on a FOB basis at Flushing-Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp-Ghent at $2,830/metric ton June 12, a $245 premium over SAF on a FOB basis at Singapore. The premium has averaged $417/mt since the start of the conflict; it averaged $129/mt from the launch of Singapore assessment in October 2024 until that point, Platts data showed. Feedstock constraints The supply challenge is particularly acute because most current SAF production relies on the Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids pathway, using waste oils and fats, including used cooking oil and animal fats. Industry stakeholders increasingly recognize these feedstocks alone cannot support long-term aviation fuel demand growth. Competition for limited feedstocks is intensifying in the Asia-Pacific, where countries are simultaneously pursuing ambitious national SAF targets. Japan's experience illustrates the scale of the challenge: even aggressive collection programs for used cooking oil are unlikely to meet national SAF ambitions without imports and alternative feedstock pathways, Symons said. This reality makes cross-border supply chains increasingly important. The market must diversify feedstock pathways beyond HEFA to include agricultural residues, municipal solid waste, alcohol-to-jet technologies, and synthetic e-SAF, Symons said. China's expansion China's SAF industry is entering a rapid expansion phase, with operational capacity projected to grow from 2.3 million metric tons in 2026 to over 14 million mt by 2028, according to Shanghai-based consultancy Veridian Advisory. Over 70 projects are in the market, with growth driven by export demand, especially Europe's blending mandates, domestic decarbonization targets, and biofuel producers converting operations to SAF. "The rapid increase (in SAF production capacity) is mainly driven by several leading Chinese biofuel players that are actively converting or expanding toward SAF production," Veridian Advisory's partner Karen Chensaid, noting Junheng Bioenergy, Jiaao and Tianzhou New Energy. Chen said the projected output capacity includes partial HVO capacity of the projects with flexible renewable fuel configurations, and the actual output by 2028 could end up lower than the announced nameplate capacity, given delays in technology scale-up and offtake agreements. S&amp;P Global Horizons' estimates show that the renewable diesel and SAF capacity in China, based on publicly announced projects, stands at 7.69 million mt in 2028, more than doubling from 2025's 3.07 million mt, mainly through the HEFA-SPK pathway. However, many Chinese projects targeting European markets face exposure to international policy and trade risks, particularly around meeting EU sustainability criteria. China's experience with ISCC/EU certification remains limited, and sustainability systems need improvement, according to Veridian Advisory's analysis. Policy stability critical Inconsistent policy frameworks can significantly slow investment, with investors requiring confidence that incentives will remain in place and mandates will be supported by production incentives, Symons said. The most successful SAF markets are likely to be those providing investors with a decade-long horizon for planning and capital deployment, rather than relying on short-term policy interventions. "The question is no longer whether demand for SAF exists. Rather, it is whether the policy environment and supply chain can provide the confidence necessary to unlock long-term capital commitments," Symons said. For Asia-Pacific airlines, promoting regional production of alternative fuels and diversifying supply chains has become strategically important, particularly in countries without sovereign oil and gas reserves. The real strategic asset in SAF will not just be the refinery but securing the end-to-end value chain, underpinned by government policy support, Symons said. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/061526-china-targets-40-penetration-of-new-energy-heavy-duty-truck-by-2030</link><description>China will promote the large-scale deployment of new energy heavy-duty trucks across all scenarios to drive new growth in the transportation sector, according to an implementation plan released June 12 by 11 government departments, including the Ministry of Transport. The plan targets a 40% penetration rate for new energy heavy-duty trucks by 2030, lifting the total fleet to more than 1.6 million</description><title>China targets 40% penetration of new energy heavy-duty truck by 2030</title><pubDate>15 June 2026 03:33:13 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Oceana Zhou - Oil Market Specialist</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Natural Gas, Crude Oil, LNG, Energy Transition, Refined Products, Electric Power, Hydrogen, Diesel-Gasoil June 15, 2026 China targets 40% penetration of new energy heavy-duty truck by 2030 By Oceana Zhou - Oil Market Specialist Editor: Sivassanggari Tamil selvam Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Fleet to reach 1.6 mil units, 20% of total trucks Plan includes 3,000 charging stations nationwide China's oil demand to fall 1.4 mil b/d in Q2 China will promote the large-scale deployment of new energy heavy-duty trucks across all scenarios to drive new growth in the transportation sector, according to an implementation plan released June 12 by 11 government departments, including the Ministry of Transport. The plan targets a 40% penetration rate for new energy heavy-duty trucks by 2030, lifting the total fleet to more than 1.6 million units, or about 20% of all heavy-duty trucks in operation. The plan also sets specific regional goals. In areas such as the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the Fenwei Plain, the electrification of short-haul transport on fixed routes is slated to exceed 80%. To support the transition, China will develop zero-carbon road transport corridors by building recharging and refueling infrastructure for electric heavy-duty trucks along its expressway network. This includes the construction of about 3,000 heavy-duty truck charging and battery-swapping stations, along with the strategic deployment of hydrogen and green fuel refueling stations in key scenarios. By 2030, freight transported by new energy heavy-duty trucks on expressways is expected to account for 18% of total freight volume. The initiative will establish a comprehensive system of infrastructure, technical equipment, supporting services, standards and policy guarantees. A promotion mechanism featuring multi-departmental collaboration and multi-stakeholder coordination will be formed to drive the large-scale adoption of new energy heavy-duty trucks. Due to greater electrification, the country is increasingly better able to withstand supply shocks from transit disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, high prices and fuel substitution amid growing energy resilience are weakening end-user demand. China's oil demand is expected to fall by 1.4 million barrels/day year over year in the second quarter of the year. As NEVs and LNG heavy trucks gain traction, a significant portion of gasoline and gasoil demand is being displaced by the widening cost advantage of alternatives, S&amp;P Global Energy CERA said in a report May 25. CERA estimated China's gasoil demand to fall by 208,000 b/d year over year to 3.84 million b/d in the second quarter US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/060324-interactive-platts-global-bunker-fuel-cost-calculator</link><description>The Platts global bunker fuel cost calculator shows how Platts price assessments for methanol, ammonia, LNG, bioblends and conventional oil-based fuels can be used to calculate the cost of marine fuels around the world, taking into account the EU Emissions Trading System and adjusted for energy density to put them on an equal footing.</description><title>Interactive: Platts global bunker fuel cost calculator</title><pubDate>14 May 2026 13:30:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Max Lin</name><name>Rowan Staden-Coats</name><name>Abhishek Anupam</name><name>Sophie Byron</name><name>Esther Ng</name><name>Megan Gildea</name><name>Santiago Canel Soria</name></author><content><![CDATA[ June 15, 2026 INTERACTIVE: Platts global bunker fuel cost calculator By Max Lin, Rowan Staden-Coats, Abhishek Anupam, Sophie Byron, Esther Ng, Megan Gildea, and Santiago Canel Soria Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... (Latest update June 15, 2026) The Platts global bunker fuel cost calculator shows how Platts price assessments for methanol, ammonia, LNG, bioblends and conventional oil-based fuels can be used to calculate the cost of marine fuels around the world, taking into account the EU Emissions Trading System and adjusted for energy density to put them on an equal footing. Click here to explore in full-screen mode. Methanol blend Shipping firms are struggling to acquire sustainable methanol due to its scarcity, and some industry participants suggest blending the green fuel with existing gray methanol could alleviate the shortage for now. The Platts sustainable-gray methanol price slider uses the month average prices of delivered sustainable methanol bunker and FOB gray methanol in the US Gulf plus logistics cost to show a representation of the blended price of marine methanol. Biofuel blend Bioblends are emerging as the top choice as an alternative marine fuel for conventional ships as regulators introduce new rules to lower greenhouse gas emissions from shipping. The Platts UCOME-VLSFO price slider uses the month average prices of FOB Straits used cooking oil methyl ester plus logistics cost and delivered 0.5%S marine fuel oil to show a representation of the blended price of biobunker fuels. LNG blend LNG, with its accessibility and competitive pricing, has long been the most used alternative marine energy for shipowners willing to invest in alternative propulsion technology. A growing number of companies operating LNG-capable ships are introducing bio-LNG into their bunker mix for deep decarbonization, and market participants suggest the more expensive green fuel could be blended with fossil LNG -- possibly through mass balance -- for lower fuel expenses. The Platts bio-gray LNG bunker price slider uses monthly average delivered bunker prices of bio- and fossil LNG in Rotterdam to show a representation of the blended price of marine LNG. Further reading: INTERVIEW: Singaporeâs MPA sees extended multi-fuel shift amid market fragmentation INTERVIEW: Moeve expands B100-capable bunker barge fleet amid rising demand ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/061526-indian-biochar-developers-optimistic-on-cdr-demand-despite-microsofts-procurement-pace</link><description>Indian biochar developers expressed optimism about demand prospectsâ&amp;#x80;¯for the near-to-medium termâ&amp;#x80;¯from large corporates in the US and Europeâ&amp;#x80;¯for biochar credits,â&amp;#x80;¯despite Microsoftâ&amp;#x80;¯announcing it was adjustingâ&amp;#x80;¯the pace of procurementâ&amp;#x80;¯of removal credits. Evolving dynamics stemming from developments in West Asia are not expected toâ&amp;#x80;¯significantly reduce buying interest from corporates for carbon dioxide</description><title>Indian biochar developers optimistic on CDR demand despite Microsoft&amp;apos;s procurement pace</title><pubDate>15 June 2026 06:03:21 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Anirudh Iyer</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Agriculture, Energy Transition, Biofuels, Renewables June 15, 2026 Indian biochar developers optimistic on CDR demand despite Microsoft's procurement pace By Anirudh Iyer Editor: Pollock Mondal Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Geopolitical hurdles likely to have minimal impact on CDR buying Bargaining power for removals may slightly shift in favor of buyers Indian biochar developers expressed optimism about demand prospectsâ¯for the near-to-medium termâ¯from large corporates in the US and Europeâ¯for biochar credits,â¯despite Microsoftâ¯announcing it was adjustingâ¯the pace of procurementâ¯of removal credits. Evolving dynamics stemming from developments in West Asia are not expected toâ¯significantly reduce buying interest from corporates for carbon dioxide removal credits,â¯ developerâ¯sources told Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, in the week to June 12. "Perhaps appetiteâ¯from large corporates in the West may haveâ¯reduced byâ¯just 25% fromâ¯earlier, despite ongoing geopolitical conflicts, an India-based developer said. Market sources told Platts they expected a slowdown in investments in sustainability from large corporates, as they are currently prioritizing ensuring theyâ¯retainâ¯liquid cash flow to cushion against any inflationary blows. Rising energy costs andâ¯subsequentâ¯increase inâ¯logisticsâ¯have made securing energy for corporates quite expensive, market sources said. Despite these emerging challenges, the first India-based developer saidâ¯corporatesâ¯would still be interested in investing in removal activities as such efforts often take time to yield the required results, and it wasn't as if CDRâ¯creditsâ¯were readily available in the spot market in large quantities. Platts reported in April that Microsoft had not completely abandoned their removal purchase program but was just recalibrating their approach by assessing the pace of procurement going ahead. So far, Microsoft has been one of the largest corporations in the world that has made heavy investments in carbon mitigation activities, mainly drivenâ¯by its ambition to set up energy-intensiveâ¯dataâ¯centersâ¯across the globe. "The bargaining power may shift more inâ¯favorâ¯of buyers now after such a development," a second India-based developer said, saying other than that, theyâ¯don'tâ¯see much negative impact on buying sentiment. The second India-based developerâ¯added that every entity in the marketâ¯has itsâ¯own strategy and priority with regard to carbon mitigation, and just because one company has said it would reduce the pace of procurement, thatâ¯doesn'tâ¯mean other companies would follow suit. Sources also said the recent transactions by Indian developers for biochar and enhanced rock weathering credits were a positive signal to the Indian market, as they would aid inâ¯improving the momentum further for domestic participants. Platts previously reported the 180,000-mt deal India-based Equilibrium signed with Altitude, along with the ERW deal Microsoft signed with Alt Carbon,â¯showing a persisting interest in the market for removal credits.â¯ Demand from large corporates for engineered removal credits, especially amid evolving geopolitical dynamics, was also declining due to higher prices for these credits compared with avoidance credits, market sources said. Platts assessed prices of current year renewable energy credits at 45 cents/mtCO2e June 12, while the current-year biochar India price was assessed at $137/mtCO2e, both unchanged from the previous session. Usually, removal credits command a premium in the market over avoidance credits because the volume and permanence of carbon removal from the atmosphere are much greater than those of avoidance projects, which only ensure that further emissions are prohibited. Further, a third India-based developer said projects that successfully demonstrated measurement, reporting, and verification, along with robust traceability,â¯still found takers in the market. "If a developer has dataâ¯on MRV and traceabilityâ¯that can be accessed by the buyer at any random time, then they are able to sell their credits," the third India-based developer said. Even though developers were optimistic of continued interest from corporates, a fewâ¯challengesâ¯remainâ¯in the Indian market, such as delivery risks stemming from biomass feedstock sourcing issues and a lack of firm end-use biochar applicationâ¯avenues. The second India-based developer said it was a "failure" on the part of the developer if they have not been able to identify their biomass source when looking to set up an industrial-grade biochar plant. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/061226-interview-new-us-reforestation-deal-shows-evolving-vcm-buyer-strategy-cip-ceo-says</link><description>The recent 1 million metric ton CO2 removal deal in the US shows how voluntary carbon market buyers are evolving their deal structures, the CEO of VCM intermediary Climate Impact Partners said in a June 12 interview. The deal, announced June 11, was brokered by Climate Impact Partners and involved a staggered purchase of 1 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent from GreenTrees&amp;apos; Mississippi Alluvial</description><title>INTERVIEW: New US reforestation deal shows evolving VCM buyer strategy, CIP CEO says</title><pubDate>12 June 2026 17:37:43 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Daniel Weeks</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Carbon, Emissions June 12, 2026 INTERVIEW: New US reforestation deal shows evolving VCM buyer strategy, CIP CEO says By Daniel Weeks Editor: Juan Tolentino Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS CIP, GreenTrees ink 1 million mtCO2e deal VCM evolves into âstaggeredâ deal structures: CIP The recent 1 million metric ton CO2 removal deal in the US shows how voluntary carbon market buyers are evolving their deal structures, the CEO of VCM intermediary Climate Impact Partners said in a June 12 interview. The deal, announced June 11, was brokered by Climate Impact Partners and involved a staggered purchase of 1 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent from GreenTrees' Mississippi Alluvial Valley project, the largest reforestation project in the US. The purchase was made at an undisclosed price "on behalf of a Fortune Global 500 client," CIP said. The deal proves that buyers in the voluntary carbon market remain anchored to their climate commitments and securing "high quality, deliverable" carbon removals at scale, CIP CEO Sheri Hickok told Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy. "There are still big transactions happening, the market is still moving," Hickok said. The GreenTrees purchase is an example of converging trends: the types of credits companies are buying and the structure of their deals, Hickok said. Natural carbon capture buyers are increasingly looking to secure removals credits, such as afforestation, reforestation and restoration projects, soil sequestration projects and more, Hickok said. However, these buyers are "recognizing there is a shortage of high-quality supply," and are adjusting their portfolio planning to compensate, she said. The GreenTrees deal was structured as a "staggered spot" purchase: a combination of short-term purchases of the latest vintage verified credits and longer-term assurances to buy credits from future issuances by the project. This deal structure "really enables cash flow today to the project and landowners," while "giving confidence that the next issuance will sell," Hickok said. "As a developer, projects need both initial capital and long-term security... [in this structure,] you can really have your cake and eat it too." The GreenTrees Mississippi Alluvial Valley project has removed nearly 8 million mtCO23 to date by planting over 50 million trees and engaging with nearly 600 landowners, the companies said. The project is the first ARR project to issue credits approved under the Core Carbon Principles developed by the Integrity Council for the voluntary carbon market. Buyers in the VCM have recently expressed demand for a more diversified approach to their climate commitment portfolios. Buyers are increasingly pairing more short-term emissions reduction methods like superpollutants with longer-term, durable carbon removals like biochar. The ability to combine these different forms of emissions reduction alongside a clear display of the exact impact of these purchases is one of the ideal ways these markets could converge and increase accessibility for buyers, panelists said at the Carbon Unbound east coast conference in May. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/061026-war-security-competitiveness-tracking-europe-energy-policy-pivot</link><description>European energy policy is undergoing a significant recalibration in 2026, with governments pivoting toward industrial competitiveness and energy security. The war in Iran has accelerated this shift, prompting major policy moves. This tracker breaks down some of the most significant policy developments shaping Europe&amp;apos;s energy landscape.&amp;#xd;&amp;#xa; </description><title>INTERACTIVE: War, security and competitiveness: Tracking Europe&amp;apos;s energy policy pivot</title><pubDate>10 June 2026 10:30:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Eklavya Gupte</name><name>Kelly Norways</name></author><content><![CDATA[ June 10, 2026 INTERACTIVE: War, security and competitiveness: Tracking Europe's energy policy pivot By Eklavya Gupte Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... European energy policy is undergoing a significant recalibration in 2026, with governments pivoting toward industrial competitiveness and energy security. The war in the Middle East has accelerated this shift, prompting major policy moves. This tracker breaks down some of the most significant policy developments shaping Europe's energy landscape. Additional reporting by Kelly Norways, Andreas Franke, Matt Hoisch Related content: Listen: How the war in Iran is accelerating Asia's energy transformation (podcast) Listen: How EU's methane rules could upend global gas trade (podcast) ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/061226-interview-singapores-mpa-sees-extended-multi-fuel-shift-amid-market-fragmentation</link><description>Singapore expects the shipping industry to operate across multiple fuel pathways for an extended period as uneven regulation, infrastructure readiness, and fuel availability complicate the sector&amp;apos;s energy transition, the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore&amp;apos;s chief executive Ang Wee Keong told Platts, part of S&amp;amp;P Global Energy, June 10. The transition will require major bunker hubs to support</description><title>INTERVIEW: Singapore&amp;apos;s MPA sees extended multi-fuel shift amid market fragmentation</title><pubDate>12 June 2026 06:45:46 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Mia Pei</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Refined Products, Maritime &amp; Shipping, Fertilizers, Chemicals, Energy Transition, LNG, Fuel Oil, Bunker Fuel, Renewables June 12, 2026 INTERVIEW: Singaporeâs MPA sees extended multi-fuel shift amid market fragmentation By Mia Pei Editor: James Leech Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Fragmented rules risk costly supply disruptions Singapore scales commercially viable alternative fuels Maritime resilience hinges on cooperation Singapore expects the shipping industry to operate across multiple fuel pathways for an extended period as uneven regulation, infrastructure readiness, and fuel availability complicate the sector's energy transition, the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore's chief executive Ang Wee Keong told Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, June 10. The transition will require major bunker hubs to support new marine fuels while maintaining reliable port operations and conventional fuel supply, said Ang. "While there is broad alignment on the direction of the global maritime sector's transition, the pace of adoption, infrastructure readiness, and regulatory approaches will likely remain uneven across markets for some time," he added. "It is likely that shipping will operate on multiple fuel pathways for an extended period." The comments came as shipowners, charterers, and bunker suppliers at Posidonia 2026 highlighted a more complex operating environment shaped by fragmented decarbonization rules, energy security concerns, and shifting trade patterns amid geopolitical tensions. "The industry is increasingly operating in a world where disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and supply chain shifts are becoming more the norm rather than the exception," noted Ang. He highlighted that, over the next decade, maritime resilience will increasingly mean "the ability to adapt and continue creating value in a less predictable operating environment". That, for Singapore, also means supporting shipping's energy transition beyond conventional fuels "in a practical and commercially viable manner." The world's largest bunkering hub has prepared for a multi-fuel marine market by scaling up LNG bunkering capabilities, issuing methanol bunker supplier licenses, and advancing ammonia bunkering readiness, said Ang. Ports and marine fuel supply chains will need to support the transition "while maintaining operational reliability and efficiency," he said, noting OCEANS-X as part of efforts to facilitate trusted maritime data exchanges. Fragmented environment Ang warned that shipping could become more costly and less reliable if decarbonization standards, fuel infrastructure, and digital systems develop into incompatible regional regimes. "Shipping cannot function efficiently if the industry fragments into separate regional systems with incompatible standards, infrastructure, or regulatory approaches," he said. "This would increase inefficiencies and costs across global trade networks, causing supply chains to be less reliable and more expensive." The warning came as the industry discussed the alternative IMO Net-Zero Framework while disagreements between shipowners and regulators surfaced during Posidonia 2026. Ang said major maritime hubs such as Singapore have "an important responsibility to continue supporting openness, interoperability and practical collaboration even amid broader geopolitical differences". Singapore's approach includes supporting global frameworks through the IMO, working with industry on pilots and standards development, and implementing practical decarbonization pathways across multiple fuels, said Ang. Nonetheless, he said collaboration needs to move beyond policy discussions into operational implementation, noting MPA's Green and Digital Shipping Corridors partnerships that help ports and other ecosystem partners develop solutions around digital standards, emissions accounting, fuel availability, and operational coordination across international trade routes. On facilitating cooperation between jurisdictions, Ang highlighted MPA's partnership with the Port of Rotterdam to conduct trials on ship-to-shore data exchange, and Singapore-China digital exchange of ship certificates for Singapore-flagged vessels calling at Chinese ports. "Singapore's role is to remain an open, rules-based and reliable hub that helps reduce friction and provides value for international shipping," said Ang, noting that maritime resilience will increasingly depend on how the industry can "continue coordinating effectively across complex and fragmented systems". US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/061126-australia-launches-green-fuels-accelerator-for-saf-biofuel-projects</link><description>Australia launched a Green Fuels Accelerator to advance commercial-scale low-carbon liquid fuel production, with seven projects selected to receive tailored regulatory, technical, commercial and finance advisory support aimed at accelerating final investment decisions, project developer Cyan Ventures said. Funded by the Australian Renewable Energy Agency, with support from industry partners</description><title>Australia launches Green Fuels Accelerator for SAF, biofuel projects</title><pubDate>11 June 2026 21:42:44 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Samyak Pandey</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Agriculture, Energy Transition, Refined Products, Biofuels, Renewables, Jet Fuel June 11, 2026 Australia launches Green Fuels Accelerator for SAF, biofuel projects By Samyak Pandey Editor: Juan Tolentino Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Qantas, Boeing back commercialization push Seven SAF projects receive advisory support Australia launched a Green Fuels Accelerator to advance commercial-scale low-carbon liquid fuel production, with seven projects selected to receive tailored regulatory, technical, commercial and finance advisory support aimed at accelerating final investment decisions, project developer Cyan Ventures said. Funded by the Australian Renewable Energy Agency, with support from industry partners including Qantas and Boeing, the accelerator will provide targeted commercialization support to de-risk projects and unlock domestic low-carbon fuel supply, while reducing Australia's reliance on imported fuel, which frequently exceeds two-thirds of domestic demand, Cyan Ventures said June 10. "The Green Fuels Accelerator is about converting Australia's natural advantages into operating projects. We have the feedstocks, the innovative capacity, and willing partners across the supply chain to become a leader in low carbon fuel technology and production," Fraser Thompson, managing partner at Cyan Ventures, said in the statement. "The benefit of a thriving domestic SAF industry is clear. What's missing is the targeted support to get early-stage projects across the line -- the financing structures, the offtake agreements and the regulatory guidance that turns potential into production," Thompson said. The pilot initiative will work with seven identified low-carbon liquid fuel projects, providing specific commercialization support in areas such as financing and commercial offtake, Cyan Ventures said. Industry partners, including Qantas, Boeing, Mission Possible Partnership, Climate Tech Partners and SYSTEMIQ, will provide project advisory support. The seven selected projects span conversion technologies and integrated feedstock-to-fuel facilities across Queensland, Western Australia and New South Wales, according to the statement. Each project will receive bespoke advisory support tailored to its technology, feedstock and commercial stage. "Qantas is committed to reducing the emissions of Australian aviation and scaling a domestic sustainable aviation fuel industry is central to that goal," Fiona Messent, chief sustainability officer at Qantas, said in the statement. "We're pleased to provide our commercial and technical expertise to help the most promising projects reach production." "Boeing's partnership on the Green Fuels Accelerator initiative marks a pivotal step towards securing Australia's energy independence, growing regional economies, lowering long term fuel costs and advancing decarbonization across the aviation sector," Kimberly Camrass, head of sustainability APAC at Boeing, said in the statement. Feedstock development "Australia has the potential to manufacture our own low carbon liquid fuels. We have abundant feedstocks, strong research capability and growing demand from sectors like aviation," Darren Miller, chief executive officer at the Australian Renewable Energy Agency, said in the statement. "What's needed now is the support to help promising projects navigate the final steps to commercial scale." Western Australia is funding genetic research to develop higher-yielding canola varieties that can better withstand frost and acidic soils, aiming to strengthen domestic biodiesel feedstock supplies while improving food production, according to a June 5 statement on the Western Australia government website. The state's Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development is leading three projects backed by the Grains Research and Development Corp. that target key production constraints limiting canola output across Australia's grain belt. The New South Wales government will invest A$225 million ($161 million) to expand domestic low-carbon manufacturing as part of efforts to position the state as a supplier of renewable energy equipment and clean technologies, the government said June 2. The investment will support projects manufacturing renewable energy components, as well as low-carbon products such as blended cement, cross-laminated timber and biofuels. The federal government in May committed A$1.1 billion under its Clear Fuels Program to boost domestic low-carbon liquid fuel production, with consultations on national biofuel blending mandates expected to begin soon. Only New South Wales and Queensland currently mandate blending of ethanol and biodiesel. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/sector-review-private-market-nexus-increases-interconnectedness-among-european-financial-institutions-s101680665</link><description>This report does not constitute a rating action. European private markets are expanding rapidly. This is narrowing the gap with North American markets, which have historically been larger and less reliant on bank financing. We estimate that private funds focused on Europe manage about $2.3 trillion in assets, with about $1.8 trillion in private equity and $500 billion in private debt (see chart 1). European private credit funds are gradually expanding their lending activities from mid-market ent</description><title>Sector Review: Private Market Nexus Increases Interconnectedness Among European Financial Institutions</title><pubDate>11 June 2026 13:13:31 GMT</pubDate></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/061126-interview-moeve-expands-b100-capable-bunker-barge-fleet-amid-rising-demand</link><description>Moeve is expanding its bunker barge fleet capable of supplying 100% biofuels, according to a bunker executive of the Spanish company, as environmental regulations lead to higher demand for the low-carbon energy. The fuel supplier&amp;apos;s current biobunker business focuses on B30 with 30% used cooking oil methyl ester, but its director for marine fuels and heavy products, Samir Fernandez, said Moeve will</description><title>INTERVIEW: Moeve expands B100-capable bunker barge fleet amid rising demand</title><pubDate>11 June 2026 17:37:24 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Max Lin</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Refined Products, Maritime &amp; Shipping, Agriculture, Energy Transition, Fuel Oil, Bunker Fuel, Biofuels, Renewables, Jet Fuel June 11, 2026 INTERVIEW: Moeve expands B100-capable bunker barge fleet amid rising demand By Max Lin Editor: Marieke Alsguth Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Moeve to have three barges that can supply B100 B100 emerges as cheapest FuelEU compliance option Hormuz crisis creates challenges to refining system Moeve is expanding its bunker barge fleet capable of supplying 100% biofuels, according to a bunker executive of the Spanish company, as environmental regulations lead to higher demand for the low-carbon energy. The fuel supplier's current biobunker business focuses on B30 with 30% used cooking oil methyl ester, but its director for marine fuels and heavy products, Samir Fernandez, said Moeve will have more IMO Type II bunker barges amid increased requirements for B100. The company took delivery of its first such ship in April and will have another two by the end of August, all three of them to be deployed in the Algeciras Bay, the executive told Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, in an interview. "I now see an increasing interest in B100 as a method of compliance" for FuelEU Maritime, which would allow ship operators to generate income from compliance surpluses via pooling arrangements, Fernandez said. With oil prices spiking on the Hormuz shipping crisis, classification society DNV said burning B100 was the cheapest compliance option for non-scrubber ships bunkering in Rotterdam and trading in the International Maritime Organization's Emissions Control Areas in April. The estimate took into account the EU's Emissions Trading System and FuelEU pooling benefits. The OceanScore Pool-Price Index, which assesses the monetary value of FuelEU surpluses, was Eur171/metric ton of CO2 equivalent as of June 9. Fernande said Moeve currently physically delivers biobunker fuels and does not have availability for other suppliers, although that could change when more production capacity comes online later this decade. The company is constructing Spain's largest second-generation biofuels plant in Huelva, which is expected to start operations in 2027 with 500,000 mt/year flexible capacity for hydrotreated vegetable oil and sustainable aviation fuel. It has also taken a final investment decision on a 300-megawatt green hydrogen unit, the largest confirmed hydrogen project in Spain, at the same site and due online in 2029. Harmonization In terms of environmental regulations for shipping that could promote more clean fuel usage, Fernandez has called on regulators to align bunker rules at the global and EU levels to create a level playing field. Currently, the IMO is facing delays in finalizing the Net-Zero Framework. The Netherlands has started to implement the EU's Renewable Energy Directive III from January, resulting in a loss of conventional bunker volumes in Rotterdam as ship operators choose cheaper fuels in Antwerp instead as Belgium is yet to do so. Spain is also in the process of national transposition. "What we really don't want is to have a fragmented approach in Europe, which leads to different interpretations of the legislative framework and different and more compliance difficulties for a shipowner," Fernandez said. Separately, the IMO has lower sulfur limits for bunker fuels from 0.5%-0.1% in the Mediterranean Emissions Control Area since May 2025. Its ECA in the Northeast Atlantic will become effective from September 2028. The ECA regulatory changes will incentivize more production and use of ultra low sulfur fuel oil, which is likely to be the cheapest compliance option for non-scrubber ships, according to Fernandez. It could also prompt ship operators to consider bioblends with ULSFO while 0.5%S fuel oil and 3.5%S fuel are the preferred options now, depending on pricings and onboard equipment, the executive said. Market volatilities Moeve, which reported 3.6 million mt of bunker sales in 2025, has been one of the main bunker suppliers in the West Mediterranean with five barges in the Strait of Gibraltar, two in Barcelona and three in the Canary Islands. Heightened maritime risks in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz have led to lower container ship and product tanker traffic from the Middle East to Europe via the Mediterranean, even as bunker traders reported stronger demand in the Canaries as ships need to top up their tanks when sailing longer routes. On the supply side, Fernandez said the ongoing Middle Eastern supply issues have not significantly affected crude availability to Moeve, whose refineries with a total capacity of 470,000 barrels/day tend to process Atlantic barrels. S&amp;P Global Commodities at Sea data shows Spain imported 1.2 million b/d of crude and condensate in 2025, of which less than 5% from Persian Gulf producers. The country has not imported any from the region since February. "Most of our crude sourcing is from the Atlantic Basin, whether it's Latin America, America or West Africa," Fernandez said. "But from an availability point of view, the significant increase in crude prices impacts everything downstream." Fernandez said the shipping crisis prompts changes to the company's refining system. For example, high prices of vacuum gasoil have incentivized more production of light gasoline from the feedstock. "Feedstocks like VGO are extremely tight in the current environment reducing the availability of the component for fuel oil blending," he added. On a free-on-board Mediterranean basis, 2%-sulfur vacuum gasoil prices jumped from $538.50/mt to $987/mt on May 19 -- the highest since at least 2018 -- before easing to $865/mt on June 10, according to Platts assessments. Iran has taken control of Hormuz -- which handles 20% of global oil trades in normal times -- since its war with Israel and the US broke out Feb. 28, limiting ship traffic to 90% below the pre-war level. Many analysts have warned that a prolonged Hormuz blockade could lead to even higher oil prices and lower demand. The International Energy Agency currently forecasts global oil demand to fall by 400,000 b/d in 2026. "If the conflict lasts longer, that could force inflation and then a lack of movement of goods," Fernandez said. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/061026-google-american-airlines-sign-saf-agreement-for-35-million-gallons</link><description>American Airlines and Google have signed a sustainable aviation fuel certificate agreement covering 35 million gallons over three years and targeting nearly 300,000 metric tons of CO2 equivalent emissions reductions. Under the agreement, American will purchase and take physical delivery of SAF at Chicago O&amp;apos;Hare International Airport through existing infrastructure, with the fuel produced from</description><title>Google, American Airlines sign SAF agreement for 35 million gallons</title><pubDate>10 June 2026 19:12:12 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Samyak Pandey</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Agriculture, Energy Transition, Refined Products, Biofuels, Renewables, Jet Fuel June 10, 2026 Google, American Airlines sign SAF agreement for 35 million gallons By Samyak Pandey Editor: Marieke Alsguth Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Deal targets 300,000 mt CO2 emissions reductions Illinois tax credit enables Chicago deployment Book-and-claim model separates fuel, credits American Airlines and Google have signed a sustainable aviation fuel certificate agreement covering 35 million gallons over three years and targeting nearly 300,000 metric tons of CO2 equivalent emissions reductions. Under the agreement, American will purchase and take physical delivery of SAF at Chicago O'Hare International Airport through existing infrastructure, with the fuel produced from waste feedstocks, including used cooking oil, according to a June 9 announcement. Google will receive the associated environmental benefits through the SAFc Registry to offset emissions from employee business travel, using a book-and-claim mechanism that separates physical fuel delivery from carbon accounting. The companies described the deal as the largest publicly announced SAF certificate agreement between an airline and a single corporate customer. The structure has enabled American to secure a new long-term SAF offtake agreement with Valero Marketing and Supply Company, the airline said. Policy support drives Chicago deployment The deal was made possible by a SAF tax credit enacted by Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and the state legislature, American said. "Thanks to collaboration between industry and lawmakers, American will be able to bring significant volumes of SAF to ORD," the airline said in a statement. Illinois Governor JB Pritzker said the agreement demonstrates how the state's SAF tax credit can bring industry leaders together while strengthening Illinois' position as a global aviation hub. The Chicago deployment adds to a growing list of US airports receiving SAF volumes, although supply remains concentrated at a handful of major hubs where blending infrastructure and policy incentives have converged. Industry participants have pointed to the need for broader geographic distribution to match corporate demand with physical delivery capabilities. Corporate buyers scale SAF demand Google Chief Sustainability Officer Kate Brandt said the long-term commitment sends a vital demand signal to catalyze investment and bring more SAF to market, echoing a strategy the company has pursued through previous agreements. In March, Google extended a separate SAF deal with Shell Aviation and American Express Global Business Travel using the Avelia registry, a blockchain-enabled book-and-claim platform. That agreement highlighted the growing role of corporate buyers in scaling SAF through mechanisms that allow companies to purchase emissions reductions without requiring physical fuel delivery at specific locations. American Airlines Chief Sustainability Officer Jill Blickstein said the Google partnership represents a critical step in reducing operational emissions while helping grow demand for SAF and supporting market development. SAF can reduce life cycle emissions by up to 80% compared with conventional jet fuel, but production remains a small fraction of total aviation fuel consumption. The global aviation industry accounts for about 2%-3% of global CO2 emissions while generating more than $4 trillion in economic activity annually and supporting 86.5 million jobs, according to industry data. Market barriers persist Despite rapid growth in announced SAF agreements, the industry has not yet attracted the investment needed to scale production at competitive prices aligned with market needs, American said. The airline and its Oneworld alliance partners are focused on supporting technologies that can scale cost-competitive SAF availability while minimizing other environmental impacts. The book-and-claim model used in the American-Google agreement addresses one of SAF's biggest barriers -- limited physical availability -- by connecting concentrated supply with dispersed global demand, the companies said. However, the approach has drawn scrutiny from some environmental groups that have questioned whether separating physical fuel delivery from carbon accounting undermines the credibility of corporate emissions claims. American said it continues to invest in modern aircraft, engines and operational efficiencies alongside SAF initiatives. The airline also partnered with Google, Contrails.org and Flightkeys on a 16-week trial in 2025 that integrated contrail avoidance into flight-planning processes, resulting in a 62% reduction in contrail formation. The companies did not disclose the financial terms of the SAF certificate agreement or the pricing structure for the Valero offtake deal. Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, assessed SAF prices in California at 1,035.10 cents/gallon and assessed SAF prices basis (H-S) in California (credits det) at 541.24 cents/gal on June 9, based on a spread of neat SAF to jet kerosene Los Angeles, California, pipeline prices of 190.06 cents/gal. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/abu-dhabis-aed55b-pipeline-marks-major-public-private-funding-expansion-s101689516</link><description>This report does not constitute a rating action. Abu Dhabi is evolving its proven infrastructure funding model with the launch of a major new public-private partnership (PPP). The program, announced in May 2026, marks one of the largest planned expansions of private-sector participation in infrastructure delivery in the Gulf. It covers 24 projects scheduled for procurement between 2026 and 2027 across transport, core infrastructure, and social infrastructure sectors. In S&amp;amp;P Global Ratingsâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99; vie</description><title>Abu Dhabiâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99;s AED55B Pipeline Marks Major Public-Private Funding Expansion</title><pubDate>11 June 2026 11:26:29 GMT</pubDate></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/061126-wartsila-tests-large-scale-hydrogen-fired-engine-on-spanish-power-grid</link><description>Energy technology group Wartsila has begun testing a large-scale engine running on 100% hydrogen, supplying power to Spain&amp;apos;s national grid, the company said in a statement on June 11. The trial of the Wartsila 31H2 engine in Bermeo, northern Spain, aims to demonstrate how the technology could help balance renewable-heavy power systems as countries scale wind and solar capacity, Wartsila said. The</description><title>Wartsila tests large-scale hydrogen-fired engine on Spanish power grid</title><pubDate>11 June 2026 02:00:30 GMT</pubDate><author><name>James Burgess</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Electric Power, Hydrogen June 11, 2026 Wartsila tests large-scale hydrogen-fired engine on Spanish power grid By James Burgess Editor: Manish Parashar Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS 100% hydrogen engine trialed at Bermeo, northern Spain Aims to balance renewable-heavy power systems Engine designed to support data centers, industrial facilities Energy technology group Wartsila has begun testing a large-scale engine running on 100% hydrogen, supplying power to Spain's national grid, the company said in a statement on June 11. The trial of the Wartsila 31H2 engine in Bermeo, northern Spain, aims to demonstrate how the technology could help balance renewable-heavy power systems as countries scale wind and solar capacity, Wartsila said. The technology could support energy-intensive sectors, including data centers and manufacturing facilities with flexible, sustainable power generation, Wartsila said. The hydrogen for the test comes from a nearby Air Liquide electrolyzer, Wartsila told Platts by email. Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, assessed the cost of EU-compliant green hydrogen production via alkaline electrolysis in Spain, backed by renewable power purchase agreements, at Eur6.29/kg ($7.25/kg) on June 10. Wartsila's Director of Technology Strategy &amp; Decarbonisation, Rasmus Teir, said in the statement that the focus must now shift to creating the right environment to scale the technology, supported by regulation, investment clarity and infrastructure needed to accelerate the growth of renewable energy and sustainable fuels like hydrogen. The company said it would publicly disclose engine performance once the validation is completed. The engine is designed for utility-scale power plants in the hundreds of megawatts range, a spokesperson said. Flexible, dispatchable power The president of Wartsila's energy division, Anders Lindberg, told Platts that flexible, dispatchable power was a tool that could aid the deployment of more renewables. Wartsila's engines can ramp from zero to full output in two minutes, helping address grid curtailment problems, Lindberg said in an interview. The company is developing natural gas engines that can be retrofitted for 100% hydrogen fuel, prioritizing efficiency on current gas operations over hydrogen-ready designs that sacrifice performance, he said. Conversion would be an option when hydrogen supplies become commercially available, Lindberg said. The company's V31 medium-bore engines produce 12 MW of power on natural gas and can already blend up to 25% hydrogen without significant infrastructure modifications, with 100% hydrogen capability under development, he said. Hydrogen-fired power output is lower, he said. The 25% blending limit reflects regulatory thresholds in Europe and the US that allow hydrogen-natural gas mixtures to use existing gas infrastructure, Lindberg said. Wartsila has tested the 25% blend at a US Midwest site and is developing full hydrogen conversion capability that customers can implement when economics justify the switch, he said. Grid constraints Inadequate grid flexibility and market structures are constraining renewable energy deployment more than technology gaps, with systems wasting vast amounts of clean power that could be absorbed by more responsive generation assets, Lindberg said, adding that price volatility was down to the system, not the renewables. "This is not the fault of the renewables," he said. "It is actually the fault of the system not being adapted to renewables." The energy transition debate is moving beyond technology deployment into the details of grids, infrastructure and markets, he noted, with regulators increasingly recognizing the need for compensation structures that reward system flexibility rather than just energy output, he said. "The good thing is that the debate has started," he said. "I wish it went from debate to action a little bit faster." Different jurisdictions are adopting varied approaches, with Texas in the US using volatile short-term pricing that allows flexible generators to capture price spikes, while Brazil and European markets increasingly rely on capacity auctions, Lindberg said. Industrial applications Mining represents Wartsila's largest industrial customer segment for the engine technology, followed by cement and textiles, with installations across Western Australia, the US and Canada, Lindberg said. The company is also seeing growing interest from data center operators seeking off-grid power, particularly near urban centers where grid connection delays are constraining development, he said. Fossil fuel price shocks, including the Middle East crisis, underscore the energy security benefits of domestic renewable generation. "All the logic is there," Lindberg said. "We have all the technology that is needed. It's just how can we speed it up." US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/natural-gas/061026-european-commission-lays-out-core-priorities-for-ets-july-review</link><description>The European Commission has laid out its key priorities for the upcoming review of the Emissions Trading System, eyeing a predictable carbon price, strengthening investment and ensuring an even playing field for sectors covered by the cap-and-trade scheme, according to a document seen by Platts, part of S&amp;amp;P Global Energy. The project brief was circulated ahead of a commission orientation meeting</description><title>European Commission lays out core priorities for ETS July review</title><pubDate>10 June 2026 12:13:25 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Irina Breilean</name><name>Eklavya Gupte</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Emissions, Carbon June 10, 2026 European Commission lays out core priorities for ETS July review By Irina Breilean and Eklavya Gupte Editor: Jonathan Loades-Carter Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS EC eyes tying free allocations to energy investment Investment Booster expected before 2030 Commission eyes extra-EEA flight coverage The European Commission has laid out its key priorities for the upcoming review of the Emissions Trading System, eyeing a predictable carbon price, strengthening investment and ensuring an even playing field for sectors covered by the cap-and-trade scheme, according to a document seen by Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy. The project brief was circulated ahead of a commission orientation meeting taking place June 10. It highlighted three core objectives for the review, including improving support for Europe's industrial and clean tech sectors in the 2030s. "The review will preserve the strength of the carbon market and its price signal as a driver for investments," the EC said, adding that it will "adapt its design and introduce targeted simplifications to reduce administrative burden and make the system more effective," including simpler monitoring, reporting and verification of maritime emissions and simplified reporting for air carriers. The draft also said that the review will align the ETS with the 2040 and 2050 climate targets, allowing "for a more gradual decarbonization pathway." Executive Vice-President of the European Commission for Cohesion and Reforms Raffaele Fitto said the orientation talks were constructive, with the EC now working toward the July 15 deadline for the ETS review. "The discussion and the contributions were very, very positive and important for this very crucial goal of July 15," Fitto said at a press conference following the meeting. Carbon removal inclusion in the ETS was also part of the discussion, alongside a review of the Market Stability Reserve, which governs the supply-and-demand dynamics of EU Allowances. Free allocations Strengthening investment in green energy was another core priority, the document showed. The commission said the review will "ensure that substantial ETS revenues are invested in innovation, clean tech and industrial decarbonization in a cost-effective manner," adding that it would look to extend free allocations "while clearly linking it to much-needed investments inside Europe." It said that the Innovation Fund will continue to support first commercial applications in technology, supplemented by the Industrial Decarbonization Bank with Eur100 billion ($115 billion) in funding within the governance of the future Competitive Fund. The ETS Investment Booster will help kick-start investments, the commission said, adding that the booster will be available before 2030 "to ensure timely supply." Finally, the EC said the review will need to ensure member states are compelled to spend more of their national ETS revenues on investments in decarbonization of the ETS-covered sectors. "Specific mechanisms ensuring continued solidarity with lower-income Member States, such as the redistribution of 10% of auctioning revenues, the Modernization Fund, and guaranteed access to the ETS Investment Booster, will continue to assist lower-income Member States in modernizing their energy system and accelerating industrial transformation," said the commission. The EU's carbon market has emerged as the unlikely flashpoint in Europe's industrial competitiveness debate, with political pressure mounting throughout 2026 over its impact on heavy industry and manufacturing. This political pushback dragged EU carbon prices down by almost Eur30/mtCO2e ($34.93/mtCO2e) in mid-March since mid-January, when prices were near Eur93/mtCO2e. But values have recovered since March after the commission confirmed it will address these concerns in its ETS review proposal in July, which will examine critical aspects of the carbon market architecture, including the trajectory of free allowances to energy-intensive industries, supply-and-demand mechanisms, and sectoral expansions. Aviation The commission further said that the review should ensure that all sectors under the ETS contribute fairly to the EU's climate targets. "This includes applying an effective carbon price signal to the EU's fair share of aviation emissions for extra-European flights," said the EC. The scope of aviation under the EU ETS, including the option of extending coverage to departing international flights, has been featured in previous EC-stakeholder engagements. While the industry opposes such an expansion, citing administrative hurdles and overlapping obligations, others have argued that most aviation emissions linked to Europe remain outside the ETS and that reliance on CORSIA is inadequate. The Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation, or CORSIA, is the UN's global market-based carbon credit scheme, managed by the International Civil Aviation Organization and is aimed at reducing emissions from international aviation. Platts last assessed the CEC price for CORSIA-eligible credits at at $9.90/mtCO2e on June 9, the lowest level since June 2024. Meanwhile, EU Allowance prices are trading at significantly higher levels, with the latest Platts assessment for the nearest-December benchmark at Eur76.10/mtCO2e ($87.92/mtCO2e) on June 9. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/061026-green-carbon-kih-launch-vietnam-awd-project-aimed-at-jcm-credit-generation</link><description>Japan-based developer Green Carbon and Seoul-based Korea Investment Holdings (KIH) partnered on a rice cultivation project in Vietnam to generate carbon credits under Japan&amp;apos;s Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM), reflecting early-stage efforts to expand agriculture-based projects within the scheme. The initiative, located in Nghe An province, will focus on reducing methane emissions from rice paddies</description><title>Green Carbon, KIH launch Vietnam AWD project aimed at JCM credit generation</title><pubDate>10 June 2026 08:47:07 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Aliana zulaika Yeong</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Carbon, Emissions June 10, 2026 Green Carbon, KIH launch Vietnam AWD project aimed at JCM credit generation By Aliana zulaika Yeong Editor: Aastha Agnihotri Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Vietnamâs low-emission agriculture push supports JCM project development Japan-backed mechanism expands beyond energy into methane reduction projects Uncertainty persists over timelines for methodologies and credit issuance Japan-based developer Green Carbon and Seoul-based Korea Investment Holdings (KIH) partnered on a rice cultivation project in Vietnam to generate carbon credits under Japan's Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM), reflecting early-stage efforts to expand agriculture-based projects within the scheme. The initiative, located in Nghe An province, will focus on reducing methane emissions from rice paddies through alternate wetting and drying (AWD) irrigation practices, with the eventual goal of issuing credits under the JCM framework, the companies said in a statement June 9. The project reflects broader efforts to extend the JCM beyond its traditional focus on renewable energy and energy efficiency into agriculture and nature-based solutions. Under the JCM scheme, Japan and partner countries collaborate on emissions-reduction projects, with the resulting credits shared between the parties and potentially used toward Japan's climate targets. Both JCM credits and J-Credits can be used to offset up to 10% of emissions under Japan's compliance carbon scheme, also known as the Green Transformation Emissions Trading Scheme. Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, assessed J-Credit Energy Efficiency at Yen 4,475/mtCO2e, and J-Credit Renewable Energy (Electricity) at Yen 4,875/mtCO2e, both down Yen 50/mtCO2e day over day on June 10. Japan's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) outlines its commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and achieving net zero emissions by 2050, in addition to ambitious targets to reduce emissions by 60% in FY2035 (April to March) and 73% in FY2040 compared to FY2013 levels. Agriculture, particularly rice cultivation, is gaining attention as a source of methane abatement in Southeast Asia, where flooded paddies are a major source of methane emissions. Alternate wetting and drying techniques, involving periodic drainage of fields, have been identified as a mitigation pathway, with similar approaches already introduced in other regional JCM initiatives. Green Carbon said the Vietnam project is intended to serve as a model for initial implementation. "We will begin with a demonstration project in Nghe An Province ... ultimately aiming for deployment across more than 62,000 hectares," said Jun Okita, representative director of Green Carbon. Vietnam policy backdrop supports project pipeline Vietnam has identified emissions reductions in agriculture as a national priority, with its "LowâEmission Crop Production Program" targeting the sector over 2025-2035. Recent agreements between Japan and Vietnam have also signaled stronger cooperation under the JCM, particularly in agricultural and irrigation projects. The Nghe An initiative is expected to begin as a pilot, with the potential to scale based on early results. Plans outlined by the companies include expanding coverage and developing a model for the deployment of agriculture-based JCMs. For KIH, the project reflects increasing financial sector participation in carbon project development in Asia. "We understand this project to be a deeply meaningful step toward establishing a model case for sustainable agriculture in Vietnam," said Dong-woo Han, managing director at KIH, adding that the group is exploring further carbon-related investments in the region. Pipeline builds, but timelines remain uncertain The partnership comes amid growing interest in agricultural-based carbon credits, particularly in methane reduction, but the segment remains at an earlier stage than established project types. While JCM project development has been picking up in recent months, J-Credit procurement is sidelined amid the GX-ETS "transitional" phase. However, market participants have repeatedly raised concerns about a lack of clarity around the timeline for adding new methodologies under the scheme, as well as the timing of credit issuance. Due to Japan's complex regulatory landscape and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, many JCM projects remain in the pipeline, with commercialization dependent on regulatory approvals, methodology finalization and demand for credits. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/06/picture-this-mexico-avocado-exporters-look-beyond-us-market</link><description>Mexicoâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99;s avocado exporters seek growth beyond the US as shipments to the EU, Japan and Honduras rise, though diversification remains limited.</description><title>Picture This: Mexico&amp;apos;s Avocado Exporters Look Beyond US Market</title><pubDate>10 June 2026 16:45:00 GMT</pubDate><content><![CDATA[ BLOG â Jun. 10, 2026 Picture This: Mexico's Avocado Exporters Look Beyond US Market By Vania Alvarez Murakami, Ines Nastali, and Chris Rogers What we know Mexicoâs avocado exporters are seeking growth beyond their dominant US market, with producers in Jalisco â the countryâs second-largest avocado-producing state â targeting new opportunities in Asia. The push comes as national diversification efforts begin to lift shipments to markets including the EU, Japan and Honduras, even as the US continues to account for most Mexican avocado exports. The US has been Mexicoâs primary export market for avocados, accounting for 85.8% shipments in the 12 months to April 30, 2026, on a quantity basis, and 86.4% in 2024. During the same 12-month period, Canada accounted for 6.5% of exports and Japan for 2.5%. In the three months to April 31, 2026, exports to the EU soared, growing by 6,142.9% year over year, compared with the same period last year, and by 95.8% in the broader 12-month period. Although this growth was large, in the context of total Mexican exports, EU shipments only represented 0.7% of Mexican exports in the 12-month period. Similarly, EU avocado imports from Mexico only made up 2.2% of the total during the first quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, Mexican exports of avocados to Japan also grew significantly year over year in the three months to April 31, 2026, as did exports to Honduras. Why it matters Mexicoâs effort to expand avocado exports beyond the US reflects both a market opportunity and a risk-management strategy. Demand in the EU, Japan and Honduras is growing quickly, but the US remains overwhelmingly dominant as a destination for Mexican avocados, meaning diversification is still at an early stage. The appeal of Mexicoâs Hass avocados â known for their buttery texture and nuttier taste â gives producers a competitive advantage over more chalky and bitter varieties native to South American countries. Sustainability initiatives, including a goal of a deforestation-free avocado industry by 2030, could also help Mexico position its avocado sector more favorably in markets beyond the US. Still, local developments could complicate that outlook. The upcoming United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review, farmer protests over protections and fixed prices, and cartel-related disruptions in western Mexico all have the potential to affect trade flows, logistics and market access. Learn how our data and insights can empower strategic, operational, and tactical decision-making Click Here This article was published by S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&amp;P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&amp;P Global. Register for Inland26 The must-attend conference for shippers and transportation and logistics providers moving goods from ports to inland destinations Click Here ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/06/global-industry-manda-trends-q1-2026-sector-led-value-driven-dealmaking</link><description>Legacy corporate actions models are reaching their limits. Learn how lifecycle management, unified data, and AI-driven automation improve scale, control, and ROI. </description><title>Global Industry M&amp;amp;A Trends Q1 2026: Sector Led, Value Driven Dealmaking</title><pubDate>03 June 2026 13:30:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Joe Mantone</name><name>Darragh Riordan</name><name>Gaurang Dholakia</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Blog - June 02, 2026 Global Industry M&amp;A Trends Q1 2026: Sector Led, Value Driven Dealmaking By Joe Mantone, Darragh Riordan, and Gaurang Dholakia Is global M&amp;A recovering in 2026? Global merger and acquisition activity in the first quarter of 2026 presented a paradox: deal value increased even as deal volumes fell to their lowest level in several years. This signals a selective, sector-led recovery rather than a broad market rebound. The data indicates a market where large, strategic transactions are driving headline value, while smaller and mid-market deals remain constrained by macroeconomic volatility, geopolitical risk, and challenging financing conditions. Which sectors are shaping M&amp;A outcomes in early 2026? This analysis, based on the S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence Q1 2026 M&amp;A Sector Review, shows that sectors like power and utilities, oil and gas, and insurance are accounting for a disproportionate share of global M&amp;A value. Companies in these industries are using M&amp;A to address structural challenges such as the energy transition, the need for digital infrastructure, and capital optimization. Understanding these sector-specific drivers is now more critical than tracking aggregate deal counts. Key Highlights Value Over Volume: Global M&amp;A value rose in Q1 2026, supported by a handful of multibillion-dollar deals, while overall transaction volume declined, pointing to a highly selective market. Energy &amp; Utilities Lead: The power, utilities, and oil and gas sectors drove a significant portion of deal value, with acquirers focused on strategic consolidation, energy transition assets, and portfolio optimization. Metals &amp; Mining Rebounds: The sector saw M&amp;A value jump 63% quarter-over-quarter to $26.28 billion, driven by buyers seeking scale and strategic positioning in core commodities like steel, gold, and copper. TMT Divergence: Technology, media, and telecom M&amp;A showed a split personality, with high-value deals for essential digital infrastructure contrasting with slowing activity in discretionary tech and media segments. Financials Concentrate: Banking and insurance M&amp;A was characterized by value concentration, where single, transformative transactions like Corebridge Financial's $22 billion acquisition of Equitable Holdings reshaped quarterly totals. Sector Trends: Where M&amp;A Is Strategic Rather Than Cyclical Why are power and utilities deals driving outsized M&amp;A value? The power and utilities sector was a standout contributor to global M&amp;A value in Q1 2026. In the US, the sector recorded its strongest M&amp;A activity in six years, with deal values reaching $68.28 billion, driven by an acceleration in corporate consolidation. The largest transaction was the proposed $10.7 billion take-private acquisition of AES Corp. by a consortium including BlackRock and EQT. Similarly, Europe's power and gas sector saw its strongest first quarter since 2021, with â¬22.3 billion in deals. This activity reflects a strategic shift by investors toward regulated networks, grid ownership, and long-duration infrastructure assets essential for the energy transition. Oil &amp; gas dealmaking remained selective but impactful A handful of multibillion-dollar deals shaped oil and gas M&amp;A in the first quarter, driving total transaction value to $41.13 billion and surpassing both the previous quarter and the same period in 2025. This occurred despite a sharp drop in deal volume to just 58 whole-company and minority-stake transactions. The trend indicates that market volatility is accelerating consolidation among well-capitalized players focused on portfolio optimization and high-quality assets, rather than pursuing growth for its own sake. Asset deals, meanwhile, were more muted, reflecting a cautious approach to portfolio adjustments. Metals &amp; Mining: Rebounded with a focus on scale and core commodities M&amp;A activity in the metals and mining sector saw a strong rebound, with total deal value jumping 63% quarter-over-quarter to $26.28 billionâthe second-largest quarterly total since late 2013. Corporate-level transactions far outpaced asset acquisitions, totalling $22.93 billion. The quarter's largest transaction was the proposed $10.03 billion acquisition of BlueScope Steel Ltd. by SGH Ltd. and Steel Dynamics Inc. This, along with major deals in gold and copper, highlights how buyers are seeking either immediate scale or strategic positioning in assets deemed core to long-term supply chains. TMT showed a clear divide between infrastructure and discretionary tech The technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sector presented a bifurcated M&amp;A landscape. While strategic deals in digital infrastructure and connectivity supported valueâhighlighted by SpaceX's record-setting $250 billion acquisition of X.AI LLC in Februaryâdiscretionary tech and media faced headwinds. In North America, IT M&amp;A value fell to $6.97 billion in March, a significant drop from the prior year. Likewise, North American media and telecom M&amp;A value was just $700 million in March 2026, down from $16.15 billion in March 2025, underscoring the divergence between "non-optional" technology like datacenters and more cyclical segments. Banking M&amp;A: Transformative deals amidst low volume Bank M&amp;A activity slowed in volume terms, but value was dominated by a handful of transformative transactions. In the US, 35 deals were announced, but Banco Santander SA's $12.23 billion agreement to acquire Webster Financial Corp. accounted for 78.2% of the quarter's total $15.64 billion deal value. A similar pattern appeared in Europe, where Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA's pending acquisition of a stake in Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario SpA for â¬1.92 billion accounted for over half the region's value in a quarter with a four-year low in volume. Insurance M&amp;A: Value concentrates in a landmark deal The North American insurance sector provides the clearest example of value concentration, with a single megadeal pushing quarterly totals to a four-year high. Aggregate transaction value surged to $24.05 billion, almost entirely due to Corebridge Financial Inc.'s proposed $22 billion acquisition of Equitable Holdings Inc. This occurred even as the number of deals fell to 129, the lowest in any quarter over the past four years. The trend highlights a focus on fewer, more consequential deals that achieve balance-sheet simplification and strategic repositioning. Real Estate M&amp;A: Private Capital Hunts for NAV Discounts M&amp;A activity involving US publicly traded real estate investment trusts (REITs) continued to accelerate in early 2026, with four new deals totaling $16.77 billion announced by mid-April. Three of these were privatizations, reflecting a key market driver: the persistent discount to net asset value (NAV) at which public REITs are trading. With the US REIT sector closing Q1 at a median 19.3% discount to consensus NAV estimates, private capital continues to see an opportunity to acquire quality assets below their intrinsic value. How S&amp;P Capital IQ Pro Supports SectorâLed M&amp;A Analysis In a market defined by fewer but more consequential deals, decisionâmakers need to connect sector dynamics with regional risk and transaction context. S&amp;P Capital IQ Pro supports this by enabling users to: Track M&amp;A trends across power and utilities, oil and gas, TMT, banking, insurance and real estate in a single framework Assetâlevel M&amp;A data provides the granularity needed to assess deal quality, enabling users to move beyond aggregate value and understand which assets â by stage, commodity and cashâflow profile â are attracting capital. Connect sector trends to macro, regulatory and geopolitical drivers Link transaction data to standardized, industry-specific financial and market data templates for in-depth analysis and comparisons Move from deal tracking to decision-grade strategic insight with the sectorâfirst dynamics shaping dealmaking. Gain the complete picture of our sector and regional M&amp;A analysis for Q1â26. Download the full report. What the data shows about Q1 2026 global M&amp;A trends Why is M&amp;A value up but volume down? + Global M&amp;A deal value is rising because a small number of large, strategic transactions are compensating for weak mid-market activity. Capital is concentrating in sectors like energy and insurance, where M&amp;A is viewed as strategically necessary. What is driving M&amp;A in the energy sector? + M&amp;A in the energy sector is driven by strategic consolidation. In power and utilities, the focus is on acquiring regulated networks for the energy transition, while in oil and gas, well-capitalized players are buying quality assets. Why is TMT M&amp;A considered a "two-speed" market? + TMT M&amp;A is a "two-speed" market because investment is flowing into essential digital infrastructure and AI, while discretionary tech and media segments are slowing due to valuation pressure and economic uncertainty. What is the main trend in banking M&amp;A? + The main trend in banking M&amp;A is value concentration. Overall deal volume is low due to regulatory scrutiny, but single, transformative acquisitions are driving headline value as banks pursue scale or strategic diversification. How did one deal impact the insurance M&amp;A market in Q1? + Corebridge Financial's proposed $22 billion acquisition of Equitable Holdings pushed North American insurance M&amp;A value to a four-year high. It demonstrates a market focused on fewer, more consequential deals. Why is private capital interested in public real estate (REITs)? + Private capital is targeting publicly traded REITs because many are trading at a significant discount to their net asset value (NAV). This allows investors to acquire portfolios of real estate assets for less than their perceived intrinsic worth. Discover our business sector intelligence on S&amp;P Capital IQ Pro. Explore Now Q1 2026 M&amp;A Equity Offerings Market Report Download Now Global Industry M&amp;A Trends Report â Q1â26 Download Full Report ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/special-reports/energy-transition/horizons-top-cleantech-trends-2026</link><description>Discover 2026â&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99;s top energy trends: AI-driven power demand, Chinaâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99;s cleantech dominance, grid modernization needs, and the future of global carbon accounting.</description><title>Horizons Top Trends 2026</title><pubDate>09 December 2025 00:09:00 GMT</pubDate><content><![CDATA[ S&amp;P Global Energy Horizons S&amp;P Global Energy Horizons Top Trends 2026 AI growth and geoeconomic shifts in cleantech markets confirm that energy expansion and sustainability are linked imperatives Let's Talk Want to turn uncertainty into opportunity across energy expansion and sustainability? Contact us. Contact Sales On this page AI growth Solar Grids PPAs China's H2 SAF EV sales Carbon Geopolitics Adaptation On this page AI growth Solar Grids PPAs China's H2 SAF EV sales Carbon Geopolitics Adaptation Introduction Download report Profound geopolitical shifts and strategic repositioning in complex, interconnected energy and sustainability ecosystems will shape energy markets in 2026. The US is charting its own course, driven by rapid AI growth and evolving energy priorities. Europe is working to reconcile diverse objectives, while China consolidates its cleantech leadership and seeks to draw global markets closer. AIâs explosive power demand is testing grid limits, revenue models and sustainability goals. The pace of progress will depend on unlocking new capacity and flexibility, with grid modernization a key constraint on energy security and competitiveness. Geopolitical alignment is reshaping the trajectories of renewables, hydrogen, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), electric vehicles and climate policy, with supply chain and carbon accounting battles intensifying. Chinaâs dominance in clean energy supply and technology is growing, while Europe and the US navigate policy swings and market volatility. Mounting physical and financial climate risks are turning adaptation from optional to essential. The interplay of these trends â AI-driven demand, grid bottlenecks, evolving procurement strategies, scaling technologies for hard-to-abate sectors, disjointed carbon rules, rising costs of climate risk and the urgent need for resilience â highlights how energy expansion and sustainability are not parallel ambitions, but intertwined imperatives shaping the global energy future. Back to Top Upcoming Horizons Top Trends Webinar: AI Growth and Geopolitical Shifts Reshape Global Energy Markets Register Now AI growth tests Download report As AI uptake soars in 2026, energy supply and sustainability commitments face a breaking point Access to sufficient energy is a critical enabler of a transition to an economy supercharged by AI. Energy may be the gating factor that will determine countriesâ speed of progress and, by extension, their geoeconomic competitiveness. S&amp;P Global Energyâs high-growth view shows global data center power demand increasing 17% to 2026 and 14% per year through 2030, reaching potential demand of over 2,200 TWh , roughly equivalent to Indiaâs current total electricity consumption. $500B Spending on US data centers nears $500 billion in 2026 Projected global data center power demand vs. total generation (TWh) Source: S&amp;P Global Energy; 451 Research 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Data center demand (low end) Demand Data center demand (high end) 31,854 32,977 34,103 35,055 35,935 1,388 1,003 1,618 1,168 1,832 1,322 2,030 1,464 2,192 1,580 As of September 2025. Although uncertainties around the magnitude of growth are considerable, expansion at this rate â or anything approaching it â will reverberate across the economy, influencing infrastructure planning, investment flows and national policy, as well as raising environmental concerns. The year 2026 will increasingly shine a spotlight on whether the industry can maintain rapid growth while balancing the sustainability side of the equation. Economics and speed to market will remain key determinants of data center power supply choice, particularly where there are options in supply, and those two top priorities will not always align with sustainability goals. Data center sustainability commitments vary significantly, and net-zero ambitions are not a given. Data from the 2024 S&amp;P Global Corporate Sustainability Assessment (CSA) shows that 38% of assessed companies with data center operations lack a net-zero commitment. Major tech firms have made net-zero commitments, including companies leading the AI charge such as Microsoft Corp., Alphabet Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc. However, meeting those commitments is getting harder, as is being acknowledged in the most recent company sustainability reports. Data center companies have been leading clean power procurement efforts to meet their power needs and climate ambitions, and we look for these to continue, although the pace of new near-term power purchase agreement uptake has been slowing. In 2026, we could see the start of revisions to existing targets and some fracturing of policies by key players and regions. Back to Top Solar growth peaks Download report Solar peaks (for now): First annual slowdown in renewables additions in 2026 The end of 2025 will mark a high point for renewables installations. By this time, the global solar market will have reached an extraordinary milestone, with installations surpassing 500 GW AC â an achievement unimaginable when the industry was in single-digit gigawatts just over a decade ago. This surge has been driven largely by China, which accounts for more than half of global additions. Our analysts now forecast that Chinaâs annual additions will fall from approximately 300 GW in 2025 to about 200 GW in 2026, a decline so steep that no other region will be able to compensate. A major policy shift in mid-2025 â from guaranteed pricing to competitive bidding â triggered a dramatic slowdown after an initial rush of installations. This led to a sharp drop in Chinese volumes in the second half of the year, creating intense price pressure and ultra-thin margins across the supply chain. 10% decline For the first time ever, global solar additions are expected to decline year over year, albeit by less than 10%. This anticipated contraction marks a turning point. For the first time ever, global solar additions are expected to decline year over year, albeit by less than 10%. While this signals the end of uninterrupted growth, it does not imply stagnation. Over the next five years, cumulative photovoltaic capacity will still double, supported by emerging markets, diversification into storage and innovation in operations and maintenance. The industry faces a new dynamic â growth without the guarantee of ever-increasing annual volumes â forcing consolidation and strategic shifts. But low module prices and solarâs inherent scalability will continue to unlock new markets. Such a prediction comes with caution. Analysts have systematically under-called the solar market for many years. Policy changes can alter the outlook significantly and suddenly, and market elasticity continues to surprise. Whether the market declines or not, what is significant is our arrival at the point where we can start talking about a peak in global demand growth. Back to Top Grid infrastructure key Download report Grid modernization becomes a key constraint in energy security, transition and competitiveness In 2026, grid infrastructure moves center stage. For decades, grid investment has lagged the pace of energy decarbonization and energy innovation across many markets. This underinvestment has now become a critical bottleneck. As the world races to address expanding energy needs â electrification, decarbonization and digitalization â the grid must evolve or risk becoming the weakest link in power systems. Power sector decarbonization in the EU â where 40% of EU grids are over 40 years old and built for a fossil fuel era â requires increasing investment in grid infrastructure to improve reliability and reduce dependence on gas. The European Commission estimates that â¬584 billion in grid capital expenditure is needed by 2030, rising to â¬1.2 trillion by 2040. Yet, permitting delays â averaging 12 to 17 years for new transmission lines â and the lack of dedicated investment vehicles make upgrading existing mid- and high-voltage infrastructure a more viable near-term solution. The US faces its own grid challenges. Explosive data center growth and power needs, driven by AI and cloud computing, are straining local and obsolete grids. Without urgent investment and smarter planning, the US risks a capacity crunch and even grid instability. Across the industry, calls are mounting â from hyperscalers to utilities and policymakers â to tackle structural roadblocks to power infrastructure buildout. Proposals range from expanding tax credits to streamlining permitting and accelerating component manufacturing, signaling a shared recognition that grid modernization is now a national competitiveness issue. The grid is no longer just enabling infrastructure. It is critical infrastructure. For policymakers, utilities and investors, the message is clear: The energy expansion required to satisfy AI-driven demand growth will only move as fast as the grid allows. The energy expansion required to satisfy AI-driven demand growth will only move as fast as the grid allows. Back to Top Hybrid PPAs rise Download report Flexible PPAs become the new standard as price volatility reshapes risk management Increasing renewable capacity â especially solar PV â is leading to more zero- and negatively priced settlements in wholesale markets. This volatility is forcing a rethink in commercial structures: The market is moving from plain PPAs to flexibility-backed hedges, with hybrid PPAs combining multiple technologies and storage, to manage risk and monetize flexibility. For now, the market is in a âbrainstormingâ phase: Utilities and energy companies are early adopters of structured and flexibility products, while corporates and renewable developers are still catching up and often rely on simpler structures with less-nuanced risk allocation. A shift toward shorter contract terms and stronger downside protections could follow as capture rates deteriorate. Extreme price swings are most visible in Europe, where Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, reports that PPA price indexes in Spain and Germany remain well below solar PV cost-based levels. Platts also notes wide spreads between buyer and seller expectations, reflecting changing perspectives amid rising risks of declining capture ratios and increasing zero and negative prices. Meanwhile, standalone and co-located battery energy storage systems (BESS) deals are rising, with strong growth underpinned by additions expected through 2026 in the US (Texas, California ), Europe (Germany, UK) and Australia. The US will be installing almost 15 GW of new BESS capacity in 2026, with Germany and Australia following with 5 GW, and the UK with 3 GW. In an environment of slowing sustainability commitments and uncertainties tied to greenhouse gas Scope 2 protocol guidance revisions, we are seeing fewer announced clean energy procurements, with S&amp;P Global Energyâs Corporate Renewables Contracts database showing that global corporate PPA activity has slowed. After a strong start to the year, third-quarter 2025 activity has touched a multiyear low across the globe, with only 9.5 GW in announced deals, compared with 13.9 GW in third quarter 2024. However, data centers have continued to procure clean power at the same level as in 2024, with 27 GW of PPAs announced through October 2025, accounting for over 43% of the total PPAs, compared with 36% in 2024. They remain the largest PPA offtakers globally in 2025, a trend expected to continue. Back to Top Chinaâs green H2 Download report As the rest of the world slows down, China gets serious about green hydrogen Hydrogen has been presented as the leading âgreen moleculeâ needed to decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors. However, even as global uptake has fallen short of ambitious expectations, China has emerged as the global leader in electrolytic (âgreenâ) hydrogen, with domestic deployment and exports set to grow exponentially in 2026. Green hydrogen is central to Chinaâs plan to dominate clean energy supply chains, mirroring its approach in solar and batteries. Policy support (including mentions in the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans), regulatory changes and supply-side engineering have laid the foundation for rapid growth. This began to materialize in 2025: Chinese projects will install about 1.5 GW of electrolyzers in the year, nearly doubling the 1.7 GW total installed globally at the end of 2024. Almost 10 GW is under construction, and deployment is projected to reach 4.5 GW in 2026 and 6.9 GW in 2027, expanding global electrolysis capacity eightfold in just three years. Companies have piled in, creating over 50 GW per year of stated manufacturing capacity. Oversupply is driving fierce competition and steep price declines: Electrolyzer stack prices have plunged from $250/kW in early 2024 to under $100/kW, with similar system cost reductions. Chinese suppliers are also ramping up exports, with projects in Central Asia, Africa, South America and the Middle East procuring Chinese equipment over the past 18 months. Chinese firms aim to export energy as well as technology. At least two green ammonia plants have received EU renewable fuels of nonbiological origin (RFNBO) certification, paving the way for clean molecule exports. Price indications suggest Chinese players will sell at about $600per metric ton of ammonia FOB â about double the gray ammonia but competitive in Europeâs tight market. Prices should fall as first-of-a-kind challenges ease. Renewables oversupply creates pressure on power sector margins and utilization. Green hydrogen offers a strategic outlet: Converting excess electricity into molecules enables China to âmove electronsâ from northern provinces to other markets. To support this, China is investing heavily in hydrogen pipelines and port facilities for ammonia and methanol exports. The global hydrogen revolution has, so far, not materialized. But it is clearly emerging in the worldâs largest consumer of energy. In 2026 and beyond, one question looms: Will China export technology, molecules or both? Back to Top SAF grows up Download report Global SAF capacity expands by one third in 2026; Asia leads, Europe pays Horizons data show aviation accounts for about 3% of global energy-related CO2 emissions . Air travel has rebounded strongly after the COVID-19 dip, and continued growth is projected. Many airlines have pledged to reach net-zero carbon emissions, and current decarbonization efforts focus on reducing the carbon intensity of existing fuels, scaling up use of SAF, enhancing aircraft efficiency and utilizing carbon offsets. SAF growth will continue in 2026, but the pace slows. Global dedicated SAF capacity is expected to rise by about one third to 8 MMt; a strong increase but below the near-doubling seen annually from 2022 to 2025. The SAF market is still very small, at less than 0.5% of global jet fuel consumption. 3% in 2025 S&amp;P Global Energy data show aviation accounted for about 3% of global energy-related CO2 emissions in 2025. The industry is responding to trends in SAF consumption, which has surged since the start of the decade. The year 2025 was particularly strong, with SAF mandates introduced in the EU and the UK boosting demand. S&amp;P Global Energy estimates that SAF consumption more than doubled in 2025 to reach 2 million metric tons (MMt). In contrast, growth in 2026 will be less pronounced as EU targets remain unchanged and policy shifts in the US make SAF production less attractive. Investments are accelerating in Asia, where producers benefit from lower production costs and abundant feedstock supplies, particularly used cooking oil (UCO). More than half of global SAF capacity will be concentrated in Asia in 2026, even though regional demand remains modest. Asian producers are targeting the European market, which is forecast to face a supply shortfall and where willingness to pay is high. Beyond 2026, investments in SAF plants could accelerate sharply, with capacity potentially increasing eightfold to 42 MMt by 2030 if all announced projects materialize. Most projects are in North America (15.8 MMt), Asia (13.4 MMt) and Europe (7.2 MMt). However, only 7.3 MMt of capacity has reached a final investment decision, leaving 28.5 MMt still awaiting approval. Today, SAF is produced mainly via the commercially mature and cost-effective hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) pathway. One third of announced projects by 2030 plan to use newer technologies such as alcohol-to-jet (ATJ), gasification + Fischer-Tropsch (FT), methanol-to-jet (MTJ) and others. These face structural headwinds: technical challenges with integrating early-stage processes, high capital expenditure and production costs, reliable feedstock supply chains, and demand and price uncertainty. Overcoming these hurdles will be key to scaling up capacity if SAF is to remain a critical lever for decarbonizing aviation. Back to Top Global EV sales surge Download report China shows that EVs can be price-competitive with conventional ICE vehicles Global EV sales appear set to climb further in 2026. Yet, as in years past, adoption rates are likely to be uneven among key markets. An examination of world EV adoption begins and ends with China. Owing to the large size of Chinaâs vehicle market and its relatively large EV share, about two out of every three light EVs sold globally in 2025 are estimated to have been sold in China. Further, China is increasingly âexportingâ EV price deflation to the rest of the world. In 2025, China accounted for nearly two-thirds of global light EV sales. China appears on track for the full-year 2025 to become the first major âEV majorityâ new sales market globally â with battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) representing about 50% of new light vehicle (LV) sales in the first three quarters of the year. This is because EVs in China have, generally speaking, reached price parity with conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, spurred by intense competition among automakers and suppliers. With EVs price-competitive with conventional ICE vehicles, Chinaâs EV share is set to keep rising in the years ahead as public chargers become more ubiquitous â and faster â reducing the âcost of inconvenienceâ of driving an EV. In Europe, after two years of stagnation, the EV market is showing signs of life in 2025. A key reason is a step-up in the stringency of EU CO2 standards. Automakers in Europe have brought new EV models to market and offered discounts to consumers to help meet the tighter standards. Looking ahead, the prospect of tighter EU CO2 regulations in 2030 and 2035 â even if potentially looser than what is currently in place â together with intensifying competition from Chinese automakers, is likely to spur the regionâs current market leaders to develop and price competitively new BEV models, supporting EV adoption. As for the US, in 2025, domestic EV policy once again swung sharply, with the federal government undoing support for EVs â both âcarrotsâ and âsticks.â The year 2026 will be the first in the modern EV era in which federal EV tax credits are not available to US consumers. The US auto industry is now undergoing a test of the strength of âorganicâ consumer demand. One trend that bears watching is how automakers position their EVs in a post-subsidy world as they move beyond the early adopter market. The rest of the world is a diverse grouping, and thus EV adoption will vary widely from market to market. A common variable, though, will be the extent to which policy constrains imports of Chinese EVs and localized production, with more open markets experiencing a tailwind. Recent analysis by S&amp;P Global Energy suggested that Thailand, Indonesia, Pakistan, Mexico, Nigeria and Malaysia are among the emerging market economies relatively ripe for the adoption of Chinese EVs. Back to Top Aligning carbon standards Download report Global trade and climate policy is increasingly focused on harmonizing emissions reporting What are GHG emissions? When it comes to corporate reporting, the definition can and often does differ. Early efforts to standardize emissions reporting were designed to be flexible so that they could apply across sectors. This intentional flexibility, however, has resulted in differences in how emissions are quantified and reported, limiting its utility. There is growing consensus that inconsistencies in product-level carbon accounting need to be addressed, and harmonization is a prerequisite for the market to differentiate products based on carbon intensity. The Sustainable Business COP, which was launched ahead of the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30), featured carbon accounting as a key issue, with a new industry association, Carbon Measures, looking to accelerate the rollout of more robust product-level carbon accounting. Meanwhile, major revisions are being proposed for the worldâs leading emissions accounting standard â the GHG Protocol â to align reporting with current market realities. Changes in Scope 2 treatment can have wide-ranging implications for corporate choices to address power emissions. In 2026, carbon accounting is expected to heat up as a high-profile topic. Potential proliferation of regulations like the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) require companies to report different emissions to different regulators, complicating trade. The CBAM will take effect on Jan. 1, 2026, requiring accountability for the carbon intensity of goods imported into Europe, even as key policy elements will only be finalized at the 11th hour. Key countries around the world are introducing their own emissions pricing systems, which would lessen the impact. Among key policy questions is: Will the EU introduce export rebates to reimburse carbon costs for EU products to boost their competitiveness on global markets? Some of the EUâs major trading partners pushed back on CBAM at COP30. Criticism made it into the final COP Presidency report, promising more debate to come. Back to Top Energy geopolitics evolve Download report China leverages global clean energy leadership as US influence wanes The strategic energy divide between China and the US will widen in 2026. China has consolidated its leadership in clean energy technologies and supply chains, reinforcing its influence through state-led industrial policy and active climate diplomacy. Chinaâs cleantech overcapacity and weakening domestic demand make the export of cleantech products an economic imperative and a tool for geopolitical power projection. The US, meanwhile, is prioritizing fossil fuel exports. However, this approach depends on stable trade relationships at a time when tariff measures and shifting trade policies add complexity to global energy markets. These dynamics may influence how emerging economies weigh their options between fossil fuels and clean technologies. Chinaâs offering aligns more closely with long-term climate strategies, even as export controls on rare earth elements highlight supply chain vulnerabilities. 30% increase in cleantech spending over the next five years, with most of it moving East. Global financial flows in the energy sector reflect this trend. Spending in cleantech grows by nearly 30% over the next five years, while upstream spending remains roughly constant in real terms. The majority of new spending is moving East. Washington is adopting a more interventionist industrial strategy. Expect greater government involvement through equity stakes, price floors for critical minerals and targeted support for technologies such as nuclear and advanced geothermal. This marks a significant shift from the USâ historic model of funding early-stage innovation and letting markets pick winners and losers. A more interventionist approach provides clear signals for private capital as to which sectors and companies are favored. However, it also introduces new questions about competitive dynamics and the conditions for government backing. Meanwhile, surging AI-driven electricity demand is accelerating an energy expansion mindset, echoing Chinaâs decades-long linkage of energy policy with national security. Diplomatically, the contrast remains sharp. China continues to position itself as an active participant in climate negotiations, building on its role since the Paris Agreement and having recently released new emissions targets. The U.S., by comparison, has taken a more selective approachâskipping COP30 and challenging multilateral efforts such as International Maritime Organisation (IMO) shipping emissions pricingâcreating space for China to expand its influence. Back to Top Adaptation gap Download report With emissions potentially driving a 2.3-degree-C temperature rise by 2040, adaptation shifts from optional to essential in 2026 Extreme weather and climate hazards are creating on-ground risks for infrastructure, physical assets and the companies that operate them. The global average temperature from January to August 2025 was 1.4 degrees C above preindustrial levels â just short of the Paris Agreementâs 1.5-degree-C limit â and Horizons climate scientists estimate that there is a 50% likelihood of it exceeding 2.3 degrees C by 2040. A warmer, more volatile climate means extreme heat, drought, tropical cyclones and other hazards are likely to become more common and more severe and will incur heavy costs. These hazards are already posing challenges to communities and industries. A historic drought in Iran has led to the prospect of water rationing in Tehran and the near depletion of hydropower capacity. Soaring summer heat across Europe â where temperatures are expected to rise faster than in many other regions â is driving rapid adoption of air conditioning, stretching electric grids in countries where per-capita electricity consumption has been much lower than in the US. The cumulative economic effects of climate hazards â lost revenue from business interruption, repairs to physical damage and reduced employee productivity â translate into rising financial costs for companies. Given the observed trajectory of climate change, these costs will increase alongside physical risks. The Horizons Physical Risk dataset projects annual costs of about $885 billion in aggregate for large publicly traded companies in the 2030s. About $885B annual costs at risk The increasingly urgent question is no longer whether companies will adapt, but how â and how quickly. Climate risk assessments and physical risk adaptation planning are critical for resilience. Yet uptake across sectors remains patchy, according to data collected in the S&amp;P Global CSA. Industries historically under greater climate scrutiny, and with operational exposure such as electric utilities, grid operators, and oil and gas companies, show the highest rates of risk assessment and adaptation planning. In other parts of the global economy, risk assessment and adaptation planning remain the exception rather than the rule. Back to Top What's next? Download report In 2026, AI-driven load growth, grid bottlenecks, cleantech market fragmentation and geopolitics, evolving energy procurement strategies and carbon accounting, and rising physical climate risk will redefine the terms of progress. Chinaâs dominant position across cleantech supply chains â from solar and storage to green hydrogen and EVs â drives deployment but also generates new risks and will be a key factor in shaping the outcome of the China-US AI race. Back to Top Authors: Roman Kramarchuk, Francesco dâAvack Contributors: Anna Mosby, Brian Murphy, Bruno Brunetti, Christoph Berg, Conway Irwin, Cormac Gilligan, Edurne Zoco, Ina Chirita, Jeff Meyer, Kelly Morgan, Kevin Birn, Matt Macfarland, Sam Wilkinson Design: Content Design Let's Talk Interested to learn more? Contact our sales team. Complete the form and a team member will reach out to discuss how our solutions can support you. Section Section Section First Name* Last Name* Business Email address* Company (full legal entity)* Job Function* Job Function Industry* Industry Country/Region* Country/Region State* State City* Zip/Postal code* Phone Number* Country/Region of Residence* Country/Region of Residence [Yes] I would like to receive S&amp;P Global Energy promotional emails. Clicking on the confirm button means that you acknowledge that you have read and agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy, including transfer of your personal information outside of the jurisdiction in which you are located . Confirm ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/european-chemicals-hormuz-reopening-could-offset-fading-middle-east-tailwinds-s101687428</link><description>This report does not constitute a rating action. With the Middle East war now in its fourth month, S&amp;amp;P Global Ratings expects chemical supply disruptions and higher prices to increase market stress, albeit in an uneven and non-linear way. Our base case assumes that supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will ease in the second half of the year, but with possible periodic stoppages. Even after the Strait reopens, shipping and energy flows will likely take months to recover and could remain be</description><title>European Chemicals: Hormuz Reopening Could Offset Fading Middle East Tailwinds</title><pubDate>10 June 2026 10:01:18 GMT</pubDate></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/blog/energy-transition/061026-et-highlights-hydrogen-carbon-costs-nh3-clean-energy-low-fuel-production</link><description>Energy transition highlights: Our editors and analysts bring you the biggest stories from the industry this week, from renewables to storage to carbon prices.</description><title>ET Highlights: Hydrogenâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99;s move toward reality, factors driving carbon costs, NH3 Clean Energyâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99;s plans for low-carbon fuels production</title><pubDate>09 June 2026 20:05:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Staff </name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Renewables, Emissions, Carbon June 10, 2026 ET Highlights: Hydrogenâs move toward reality, factors driving carbon costs, NH3 Clean Energyâs plans for low-carbon fuels production Energy Transition Highlights: Our editors and analysts bring together the biggest stories in the industry this week, from renewables to storage to carbon prices. Top story Hydrogen moves from blueprints to reality as capacity set to double: Hydrogen Council The hydrogen sector has fundamentally shifted from planning to execution, with global operational production capacity expected to double in 2026 as industrial-scale projects come online, Hydrogen Council CEO Ivana Jemelkova told Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy. The shift comes as governments reassess energy investments in the wake of compounded crises. The milestone reflects a step change in project scale and maturity, with companies now building multi-hundred-megawatt facilities, Jemelkova said in an interview, at a time when the first 10-MW-scale plants began operating only in the last few years in the nascent market. "Hydrogen is happening," Jemelkova said. "It is now a reality. We are in the middle of actually executing rather than planning or setting the vision. It's steel in the ground." The Hydrogen Council's 2025 Compass report identified $110 billion in committed low-carbon hydrogen investments. On the flip side, the Hydrogen Council also estimated energy-importing countries in Europe and Asia have spent an additional $100 billion on fossil fuel imports and fiscal measures in just the first two months after the start of the US-Israeli war with Iran â funds which could have accelerated clean technology deployment. S&amp;P Global Energy Horizons data shows a total of 3.7 GW of installed electrolyzer capacity globally, with over 2.1 GW of that coming online since the start of 2025. Benchmark of the Week Eur8.53/kg Platts-assessed cost of EU-compliant green hydrogen produced via alkaline electrolysis in the Netherlands, backed by renewable power purchase agreements, as of June 8. Explore Platts Energy Transition Price Assessments Editor's Picks: Free and premium content SPGlobal.com CARBON EXPLAINED: What drives the variance in carbon costs? Unlike oil and gas, there is no standard price of carbon. Understanding the wide variance in carbon removal costs is a multilayered question that requires understanding the project type and how it generates carbon credits. Emissions are generally considered to cause less harm than removing them altogether, such as through natural carbon capture or blue carbon projects. Then there are more engineered removals like biochar and very expensive direct air capture credits. Understanding the cost of carbon means understanding the type of project and the standard models for generating high-quality, verifiable carbon credits. Philippines adds SAF production to strategic investment priority plan The Philippines has identified sustainable aviation fuel production as a strategic investment priority, positioning the biofuel sector to receive government incentives to develop domestic manufacturing capacity and reduce reliance on imports. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. approved the 2026 Strategic Investment Priority Plan on May 21, which places SAF production under Tier II priority activities alongside electric vehicle infrastructure and critical minerals processing, according to a memorandum order. The three-tier framework determines which industries qualify for tax incentives under the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises Act, the Philippine Information Agency said. Maintaining momentum: Permian methane emissions intensity contracts 23% in 2025 Methane emissions intensity in the Permian Basin fell 23% in 2025 to 0.34% per barrel of oil equivalent produced from 0.44% in 2024, according to S&amp;P Global Energy CERA analysis and Insight M data. From 2022 to 2025, basin-wide methane intensity declined by nearly two-thirds, reflecting continued improvement in upstream emissions performance. The reduction occurred within a largely stable production environment and alongside an expanded monitoring frequency, suggesting that the observed decline is not driven by reduced activity levels, according to the analysis. S&amp;P Global Energy Core INTERVIEW: Australiaâs NH3 Clean Energy targeting WAH2 project FID by year-end: chairman Australiaâs NH3 Clean Energy aims to take a final investment decision on its WAH2 Clean Ammonia Project by year-end, with commercial ammonia-bunkering operations set to start in 2030, aiding the use of cleaner fuels to accelerate decarbonization, chairman Charles Whitfield told Platts. The Western Australia-based project is NH3's flagship plan to supply low-emissions ammonia -- It is targeting refueling for bulk carriers carrying iron ore from Australia to Asia for sustainable shipping, and the emerging clean power market in Asia-Pacific, according to Whitfield. Envision, Impact Electrons plan SE Asian renewable energy system China's Envision Energy has signed a strategic partnership with Southeast Asian company Impact Electrons Siam to advance renewable energy in Laos and study the role of renewable hydrogen in enhancing energy stability, according to the companies. The collaboration on the Monsoon Wind Power Project is expected to add significant wind, solar and energy storage capacity, creating an energy system in Southeast Asia. According to Edward Hou, senior vice president and president of Asia-Pacific region at Envision Energy, the future of renewable energy is shifting from competition among individual technologies to system-level integration and intelligent operations. EC to withhold 190.494 mil carbon permits as EU ETS surplus breaches threshold The European carbon market will withhold 190.494 million emission allowances from auctions between September 2026 and August 2027, as the bloc's surplus fell below a key threshold for the first time, signaling a tightening supply dynamic that could support prices, the European Commission said. The total number of allowances in circulation stood at 1.023 billion in 2025, falling below the initial 1.096 billion threshold that determines how the Market Stability Reserve operates. This marks the first time the TNAC has fallen below that level since the MSR's introduction, triggering a reduced withdrawal rate that will result in 85 million fewer allowances being placed in reserve than in the previous year. ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/sustainability-insights-chinas-energy-transition-cracking-the-profit-puzzle-of-power-storage-s101681063</link><description>This report does not constitute a rating action. China&amp;apos;s power storage sector is the missing piece to many energy puzzles. It will support the integration of wind and solar, reduce curtailment, and enhance system reliability. It will also contribute to the country&amp;apos;s decarbonization targets. More storage should also help rated renewable power firms transition to market-based pricing. Grid firms&amp;apos; pumped-hydro projects have dominated energy storage. Now, battery energy storage systems (BESS) will e</description><title>Sustainability Insights: China&amp;apos;s Energy Transition: Cracking The Profit Puzzle Of Power Storage</title><pubDate>10 June 2026 03:28:04 GMT</pubDate></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/refined-products/060926-technip-energies-airbus-safran-form-esaf-venture-at-dunkirk</link><description>A consortium of industrial leaders has formed a joint venture to develop one of Europe&amp;apos;s largest alcohol-to-jet facilities, aiming to help meet rapidly rising EU mandates and contribute to energy security. Technip Energies, Airbus, Safran and agricultural cooperative Tereos will establish Rebound to build a plant at the Port of Dunkirk, France, capable of producing 160,000 mt/year of synthetic</description><title>Technip Energies, Airbus, Safran form eSAF venture at Dunkirk</title><pubDate>09 June 2026 12:53:06 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Thomas Washington</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Agriculture, Energy Transition, Refined Products, Biofuels, Renewables, Jet Fuel June 09, 2026 Technip Energies, Airbus, Safran form eSAF venture at Dunkirk By Thomas Washington Editor: Anoop Menon Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Joint venture to produce alcohol-to-jet from agricultural residues Plant to help meet EU's 6% blending mandate by 2030 Project strengthens European energy supply security outlook A consortium of industrial leaders has formed a joint venture to develop one of Europe's largest alcohol-to-jet facilities, aiming to help meet rapidly rising EU mandates and contribute to energy security. Technip Energies, Airbus, Safran and agricultural cooperative Tereos will establish Rebound to build a plant at the Port of Dunkirk, France, capable of producing 160,000 mt/year of synthetic sustainable aviation fuel, or eSAF, using the alcohol-to-jet pathway, they said in a statement June 9. The facility will convert advanced ethanol derived from agricultural and forestry residues into drop-in aviation fuel that can be blended with conventional jet fuel. "Among the available production pathways, Alcohol-to-Jet is emerging as a scalable and cost-competitive option which converts advanced ethanol, produced from agricultural and forestry residues into drop-in aviation fuel that can be blended with conventional jet fuel and used in existing engines and aircraft," the statement said. The project aims to help address surging European demand for alternative aviation fuel driven by the EU's Refuel EU Aviation regulation, which requires airlines to blend 6% SAF with conventional jet fuel by 2030, rising to 70% by 2050. Alongside this, eSAF must account for 1.2% of aviation fuel supplied by 2030 and 35% by 2050. That regulatory framework is expected to drive an eightfold increase in SAF demand between 2030 and 2050, the statement said. Additionally, it aims to strengthen Europe's energy supply security, the statement said. Roadblocks Scaling alcohol-to-jet fuel technology at commercial levels will be critical to meeting near-term sustainable aviation fuel supply targets, with ethanol feedstock availability expected to increase substantially by the end of the decade, an official at the International Air Transport Association said June 3. There are 64 announced large-scale projects worldwide, with 26 due to be operational by 2030, driven by ReFuelEU and the UK SAF mandates, according to lobby group Transport &amp; Environment. If all the announced large-scale projects become operational, global production capacity could reach 2.1 million mt by 2030, and 5 million mt in total, accounting for roughly 10% of EU jet fuel demand, T&amp;E said. However, to T&amp;E's knowledge, except for Infinium's Project Roadrunner in the US, none of these projects have reached FID, and timelines remain uncertain, T&amp;E said on its website June 9. Analysts at S&amp;P Global Horizons forecast a global alcohol-to-jet supply of 46,692 mt in 2026, rising to 1.270 million in 2030, of which Europe will account for none. Horizons projects European alcohol-to-jet production will start in 2031 at 22,653 mt/year and rise from there, they said in a May 2026 long-term outlook. Levelized costs of production for eSAF will be $7,471/mt in 2026 and $6,213/mt in 2030, compared to $588/mt and $624/mt for jet fuel on a CIF basis in Northwest Europe, Horizons analysts said in a March 2026 forecast. Strategic positioning Steps ahead for the Rebound project include the selection of the technology licensor, permitting activities, launch of pre-FEED (Front-End Engineering Design) and FEED activities, finalization of feedstock supply and offtake agreements, and securing the financing for the construction of the asset, the companies said. "The creation of the joint venture is subject to customary closing conditions and approvals and is expected to be finalised in the second half of this year," they said. Tereos will supply the advanced ethanol feedstock, creating an integrated value chain from agricultural production to aviation end-use. The Port of Dunkirk has awarded Technip Energies an industrial site in northern France, offering logistical advantages for feedstock delivery and product distribution. The location provides streamlined permitting and access to existing port infrastructure for both imports and exports. The alcohol-to-jet pathway is an alternative production route to the established hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids route and Fischer-Tropsch synthesis. The technology converts ethanol into jet fuel through dehydration, oligomerization and hydrogenation processes. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/electric-power/060826-interview-xcel-energys-renewables-rich-footprint-is-primed-for-hyperscalers-ceo-says</link><description>Xcel Energy Inc. sees itself as uniquely positioned to continue leading on US power-sector emission reductions while accommodating a surge in demand from large-load customers such as data centers, Bob Frenzel, the company&amp;apos;s chairman, president and CEO, told Platts. &amp;quot;We think we can do that because we have a strategic geographic advantage,&amp;quot; Frenzel said in an interview with Platts, part of S&amp;amp;P</description><title>INTERVIEW: Xcel Energy&amp;apos;s renewables-rich footprint is primed for hyperscalers, CEO says</title><pubDate>08 June 2026 15:29:55 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Zack Hale</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Electric Power, Renewables June 08, 2026 INTERVIEW: Xcel Energy's renewables-rich footprint is primed for hyperscalers, CEO says By Zack Hale Editor: Ronnie Turner Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Google deal saves customers $1.5 billion over 15 years Company eyes 20 GW data center demand pipeline Xcel Energy Inc. sees itself as uniquely positioned to continue leading on US power-sector emission reductions while accommodating a surge in demand from large-load customers such as data centers, Bob Frenzel, the company's chairman, president and CEO, told Platts. "We think we can do that because we have a strategic geographic advantage," Frenzel said in an interview with Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, on the sidelines of the Edison Electric Institute's annual investor-owned utility conference in Las Vegas on June 3. Maintaining customer affordability amid an estimated $1.4 trillion wave of planned US utility capital expenditures through 2030, driven in part by explosive growth in data center demand, was the overarching theme of the 2026 conference. Just a few years ago, US electric utility gatherings were broadly centered on climate targets and net-zero goals. Frenzel noted Xcel Energy's most recent sustainability report, released June 2, which shows that the company's four operating utility subsidiaries across eight states reduced their collective carbon emissions by 58% through 2025 compared to 2005 levels. Xcel Energy's residential electricity and natural gas rates were also 29% and 11% below the national average, respectively, over the last five years, according to the report. Minneapolis-headquartered Xcel Energy serves 3.9 million customers across the Great Plains region, including parts of North Dakota, South Dakota, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, as well as Colorado, eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. Frenzel said the company's aggressive investments in new wind and solar generation over the last 15 years, along with new transmission lines, have helped keep rates low even as the nominal US average retail price of electricity increased by 23% from 2019 to 2024. "We've been the leading provider of wind; we're a leading builder of transmission line miles in the US for the past 15 years," Frenzel said. "When you build infrastructure where it makes economic and reliability sense for your customers, you keep costs low and sustainable." Data center pipeline With consumer concerns mounting over the cost impacts of new data center development, Frenzel highlighted a deal Xcel announced in February with Google LLC to support a new 750-megawatt data center in Minnesota as a replicable model for protecting ratepayers. As part of the agreement, Google committed to procuring 1,900 MW of incremental new wind, solar and energy storage capacity, including 300 MW from a Form Energy Inc. iron-air battery, the world's largest long-duration energy storage resource announced to date. The deal, underpinned by a Clean Energy Accelerator Charge, requires Google to cover the cost of related grid upgrades. Frenzel said the agreement is expected to save regular Minnesota customers approximately $1.5 billion over a 15-year period, amounting to roughly 2% in annual savings on residential bills. "We're commercializing innovation with our technology customers, we're building a more resilient grid for our new customers, we're continuing to deploy clean energy, all while protecting our existing customers," Frenzel said. Xcel Energy, in its first-quarter 2026 earnings presentation, reported a 20-gigawatt pipeline of potential demand from hyperscalers and other large data center developers, with individual project capacity ranging from 200 MW to more than 1 GW. To help meet that demand, Xcel Energy earlier this year entered into strategic partnerships with GE Vernova Inc. and NextEra Energy Inc. The strategic alliance framework with GE Vernova will support Xcel Energy's long-term capex plan, calling for 12 GW of new wind, solar, storage and natural gas generation from 2026 to 2030. "Structuring an enterprise-wide agreement on our side and their side allows us certainty, price flexibility, and access to their engineering talent and pipelines of tech development," Frenzel said. "It allows us to move with speed and scale." Meanwhile, a joint development agreement with NextEra Energy will see the two companies codevelop generation solutions for 2 GW of new data center capacity, with potential to expand beyond that. "We're great owners and operators of infrastructure, and they're great developers, and that partnership allows us to move faster to meet the needs of our data center customers," Frenzel said. Large-load tariff preference As utilities seek to shield ratepayers through new contract and business model arrangements for data center customers, Frenzel expressed a preference for large-load tariffs with minimum demand charges, long-term power purchase agreements and exit fees. "A large-load tariff is a simplified framework that allows you to move through the regulatory process quite quickly," Frenzel said. Xcel Energy has two proposed large-load tariffs pending with Minnesota and Colorado utility regulators, with decisions expected in the second quarter of 2026 and early 2027. Frenzel added that Xcel Energy can also "pivot" if a state has a different need. "We can be flexible, and we can be agile," he said. Even as utilities prepare for a historic level of infrastructure spending, questions remain about how much new data center demand will actually materialize. A recent JPMorgan analysis based on satellite imagery found that construction has yet to begin on roughly 60% of data center capacity planned for completion in 2027, with another 7% delayed. Frenzel cautioned against reading too much into reports of data center delays, while adding that he would not pretend "to have perfect insight into the compute needs of the hyperscalers." "The contracts that most people have with data centers, from the electric side, have minimum takes and values," he said. "So, to the extent we're building infrastructure on behalf of these large customers, we're largely protected from the cost side of this." "My job is to make sure the infrastructure is ready when they're ready and that I protect our existing customers from any shortfalls in the timing of their projects," Frenzel said. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/04/oil-supply-worries-economic-uncertainty-cloud-outlook-for-breakbulk-sector</link><description>Project cargo and breakbulk demand may shift toward electrification and renewables, but oil and gas still dominate despite Middle East war headwinds.</description><title>Oil supply worries, economic uncertainty cloud outlook for breakbulk sector</title><pubDate>01 May 2026 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Eric Johnson</name></author><content><![CDATA[ BLOG â May 1, 2026 Oil supply worries, economic uncertainty cloud outlook for breakbulk sector By Eric Johnson The mix of industrial sectors that drive project cargo and breakbulk demand could well shift toward electrification and renewable energy in the coming years, but the industry is still driven by the oil and gas sectors despite fresh headwinds caused by the war in the Middle East. That sentiment, laid out in detail at the Journal of Commerceâs Breakbulk and Project Cargo Conference 2026 in New Orleans last week, cuts against the notion that service providers are totally consumed with data center construction. Tim Killen, head of growth at forwarder Fracht, said oil and gas still represents 25% of the planned capital expenditure investment for new projects globally over the next decade, compared to 8% to 10% for data centers, the sixth-highest project category. âWe've had a lot of conversations over the last two days in terms of power generation and data centers,â Killen said at the conference. âBut let's recognize that both for North America and globally, oil and gas is critical. So we're still focusing on that.â Among the sectors sandwiched between oil and gas and data centers that are driving new project capex are transformers, which Killen said has seen 300% growth in the last five years; infrastructure, such as bridges and water projects; and renewable energy, which accounts for 15% of capex for new projects. Cyril Varghese, global logistics director at Fluor, said the biggest issue clouding any outlook by project shippers, forwarders or carriers right now is not knowing how long the war in the Middle East will last. âWhat are the trickle effects going to be?â he said at Breakbulk26. âWhat is the trade reconfiguration going to look like? How much is protectionism and all countries trying to have a trade surplus or a balanced trade book impact your cargo movements across the globe?â Varghese said he is focused on what a prolonged conflict does to global GDP growth. âWhen you look at the [International Monetary Fundâs] World Economic Outlook, the recalibrated baseline for global growth is in the range of 3.1% for â26 and 3.2% for â27,â he said. âNow that's in a baseline scenario, assuming that the conflict ends soon. A severe scenario takes the growth global growth rate to 2.5% and 2.2%.â Vargheseâs contention is that carriers should be careful to not over-order breakbulk and multipurpose vessels with that uncertainty hanging over the industry, especially since new vessels entering the fleet tend to be able to carry more cargo than ones exiting the fleet. âIf the overall [economic] growth slows down, and if there is more protectionism, which is coming, and if the industry just becomes sluggish, I think we would be prudent in terms of not going into an expansion spree,â he said. âFlexibility crisisâ A more near-term issue is whether disruption to the supply of bunker fuel at key ports, especially in Asia, extends transit times and increases costs for projects. âOn paper everything looks fine,â Melanie Drehkopf, chief commercial officer at dship Carriers, told the conference when asked about bunker availability. âIn practice itâs getting tighter. There are longer lead times and you cannot just order bunker as you did before. The pricing validity window is shrinking, so if you have an offer, you better jump on it. Our flexibility is getting less and less, which means switching cargoes from one ship to another is harder.â Drehkopf said the industry doesnât have a supply crisis yet, âbut we have a flexibility crisis, especially in heavy-lift, where you donât have regular ports.â Looking further out, she said if the war persists for another month and continues to curtail fuel supply through the Strait of Hormuz, lead times will get longer. âItâs all a big question mark,â Drehkopf said. âI donât think itâs going to get better. I donât think it will idle capacity, but maybe you need to wait two, three, or four days to get the bunkers you need. There are already bottlenecks of some commodities due to a mismatch of vessels and specific commodities.â This article was originally published in the Journal of Commerce on April 27, 2026. Subscribe to JOC.com Register for Inland26 The must-attend conference for shippers and transportation and logistics providers moving goods from ports to inland destinations Click Here ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/oil-price-assumptions-raised-as-hormuz-disruption-deepens-and-inventory-buffers-erode-near-term-henry-hub-price-assumptions-lowered-s101689190</link><description>S&amp;amp;P Global Ratings believes there is a high degree of unpredictability around the duration and scale of the Middle East war and its potential effect on commodity prices, supply chains, economies, and credit conditions. As a result, our baseline forecasts carry a significant amount of uncertainty. As situations evolve, we will gauge the macro and credit materiality of potential shifts and reassess our guidance accordingly. This report does not constitute a rating action. S&amp;amp;P Global Ratings recent</description><title>Oil Price Assumptions Raised As Hormuz Disruption Deepens And Inventory Buffers Erode; Near-Term Henry Hub Price Assumptions Lowered</title><pubDate>05 June 2026 16:35:27 GMT</pubDate></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/060826-wef-warns-el-nino-poses-systemic-risk-as-shipping-flags-food-and-coal-risk</link><description>The World Economic Forum has warned that an emerging El Nino weather pattern poses a systemic shock to global markets, with shipping industry analysts flagging potential disruptions to Asian coal demand and agricultural trade flows as the climate event develops through mid-2026. The WEF said in a June 5 report that El Nino should be seen as more than a weather story, warning that the 2026-27 event</description><title>WEF warns El Nino poses systemic risk as shipping flags food and coal risk</title><pubDate>08 June 2026 18:58:39 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Samyak Pandey</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Agriculture, Coal, Energy Transition, Grains, Thermal Coal, Food, Meat, Vegetable Oils, Oilseeds, Renewables, Biofuels June 08, 2026 WEF warns El Nino poses systemic risk as shipping flags food and coal risk By Samyak Pandey Editor: Karla Sanchez Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Asian coal demand surges amid power shortages Shipping faces trade flow shifts through 2027 The World Economic Forum has warned that an emerging El Nino weather pattern poses a systemic shock to global markets, with shipping industry analysts flagging potential disruptions to Asian coal demand and agricultural trade flows as the climate event develops through mid-2026. The WEF said in a June 5 report that El Nino should be seen as more than a weather story, warning that the 2026-27 event could strike a planet already facing brittle food systems, fragile public finances, stressed energy markets and growing geopolitical instability. The organization said the phenomenon will likely test the resilience of institutions already operating close to their limits, with far-reaching consequences for commodity markets and supply chains. The warning comes as the World Meteorological Organization confirmed on June 2 an 80% likelihood of an El Nino event between June and August 2026, while the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center estimates a 96% probability the pattern will persist into early 2027. Shipping market analysts said the timing of the weather event coincides with peak Asian power demand, Indian monsoon risk and grain-crop formation across major producing regions, creating potential volatility for freight rates. For dry bulk markets, the greatest impact is expected through coal movements to Asia. India's peak power demand has already reached 270.73 gigawatts, above the government's summer expectation of 270 GW, after four consecutive days of record demand, according to shipping industry data. Coal still accounts for more than 70% of Indian power generation, and a hotter, drier summer is expected to extend the call on coal-fired generation and slow the rebuilding of domestic stocks. Freight implications Asian thermal coal imports are forecast at 76.26 million metric tons in May, up 23% from April and above last year's May level. China's seaborne arrivals are projected at 22.63 million mt, while India's are expected at 13.78 million mt,according to Intermodal data. The increased coal movements are expected to support incremental imports into India, mainly from Indonesia, Australia and South Africa, helping absorb Panamax and Kamsarmax ships supply in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. "El Nino is again becoming a factor for 2026, and its freight impact is likely to be felt mainly through Asian power demand, crop risk and trade-flow shifts," shipping analysts at Intermodal said in a May 26 market report. "The important point for shipping is timing; this is developing into the Northern Hemisphere summer, when Asian power demand, Indian monsoon risk, Pacific weather disruption and grain-crop formation all start to matter at the same time." The impact on agricultural commodities presents a more complex picture for shipping markets. El Nino leads to reduced rainfall in Australia, Indonesia and parts of South Asia, while improving moisture conditions in parts of southern South America. Current projections point to a 19% fall in Australian wheat output to 29 million mt in 2026-27, with exports falling 2.5 million mt to 23.5 million mt, according to industry forecasts cited by Intermodal. The WEF said El Nino threatens to further disrupt commodity markets already showing the impact of economic risks, warning that the world must be prepared for a climate shock layered on top of a cost-of-living shock. Rice is an important bellwether because it is both a traded commodity and a daily necessity for billions of people, the organization said. Asian farmers have already reduced rice planting amid soaring energy and fertilizer costs due to the war in the Middle East, and El Nino threatens supplies of the world's most consumed staple. Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, assessed Vietnam 5% WR at $405/mt FOB on June 8, up $1/mt day over day. Platts assessed Fragrant 5% rice at $489/mt FOB, down $1/mt day over day. Global supply chains also face disruption as drought lowers river levels and impedes inland transport, floods damage roads, ports, warehouses and processing plants, and heat reduces labor productivity across sectors, the WEF said. Agriculture is especially exposed because input costs are rising just as climate risks intensify. The World Health Organization has warned that El Nino events are associated with heat stress, exposure to wildfire smoke, vector-borne diseases, drought-related health impacts, and nutrition shocks. In already hot regions, the phenomenon can push temperatures beyond safe thresholds for outdoor workers, older people, children and those with chronic illnesses. Trade flow shifts For agricultural freight, support may come less from higher volumes and more from trade-flow shifts, shipping analysts said. A weaker Indian monsoon could lift imports of vegetable oils, pulses, feed grains and fertilizers, while Indonesia and Malaysia's palm oil supply may redirect the vegetable oil trade. Platts assessed CPO CFR WC India at $1,232.50/mt June 8 for June loading, up $2.50/mt from June 5. South America could gain a relative export share in soybeans and meal if the weather improves there while Asian crops suffer, creating more Atlantic-to-Asia demand and ship repositioning, especially in the Supramax and Panamax segments. Platts last assessed the SOYBEX FOB Santos soybean contract for July loading at $443.33/mt on June 5, down $7.17/mt from the previously assessed June 3. "The freight conclusion is therefore selective," Intermodal said. "El Nino is more constructive for coal freight than for grain freight in the near term. It supports Pacific dry bulk utilization through Asian power demand, while creating downside risk to Australian grain exports and upside risk to Atlantic grain and oilseed tonne-miles." The strongest freight response will come if heat, weak monsoon rainfall and Indonesian supply disruption occur together, the analysts said. Without that combination, El Nino is expected to act as a volatility driver rather than a blanket bullish event for freight rates. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/sustainability-insights-can-indias-sustainable-finance-market-boost-corporate-interest-s101689300</link><description>This report does not constitute a rating action. What we&amp;apos;re watching: Indiaâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99;s sustainable bond market is structurally shallow, with corporate issuers favoring alternative funding channels. After peaking in 2023-2024, the countryâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99;s sustainable bond issuance declined to about $2 billion in 2025 (see chart 1), with 62% of issuance being green bonds and 38% social bonds. Compared with other key emerging markets (EMs), Indiaâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99;s sustainable bond market has remained modest, with higher rates and h</description><title>Sustainability Insights: Can India&amp;apos;s Sustainable Finance Market Boost Corporate Interest?</title><pubDate>08 June 2026 10:02:00 GMT</pubDate></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/060426-hydrogen-moves-from-blueprints-to-reality-as-capacity-set-to-double-hydrogen-council</link><description>The hydrogen sector has fundamentally shifted from planning to execution, with global operational production capacity expected to double in 2026 as industrial-scale projects come online, Hydrogen Council CEO Ivana Jemelkova told Platts, part of S&amp;amp;P Global Energy. The milestone reflects a step change in project scale and maturity, with companies now building multi-hundred megawatt-scale facilities,</description><title>Hydrogen moves from blueprints to reality as capacity set to double: Hydrogen Council</title><pubDate>04 June 2026 15:09:32 GMT</pubDate><author><name>James Burgess</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Hydrogen June 04, 2026 Hydrogen moves from blueprints to reality as capacity set to double: Hydrogen Council By James Burgess Editor: Arushi Jain Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Industry sees operational capacity doubling in 2026 Energy security, resilience become driving force EU RFNBO rules need quick, decisive rationalization The hydrogen sector has fundamentally shifted from planning to execution, with global operational production capacity expected to double in 2026 as industrial-scale projects come online, Hydrogen Council CEO Ivana Jemelkova told Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy. The milestone reflects a step change in project scale and maturity, with companies now building multi-hundred megawatt-scale facilities, Jemelkova said in an interview following the World Hydrogen Summit in Rotterdam in May. The first 10-MW-scale plants began operating only in the last few years. "Hydrogen is happening," Jemelkova said in the May 21 interview. "It is now a reality. We are in the middle of actually executing rather than planning or setting the vision. It's steel in the ground." S&amp;P Global Energy Horizons data shows a total of 3.7 GW of installed electrolyzer capacity globally, with over 2.1 GW of that coming online since the start of 2025. The shift comes as governments reassess energy investments in the wake of compounded crises. The Hydrogen Council estimates energy-importing countries in Europe and Asia have spent an additional $100 billion on fossil fuel imports and fiscal measures in just the first two months after the start of the US-Israeli war with Iran, which could have accelerated clean technology deployment. "Right now, we are spending billions of euros, billions of dollars on additional costs for the existing supply," Jemelkova said. "All of this could be invested into the future." Recent energy shocks -- including the post-COVID disruption, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the war in the Middle East -- have prompted governments to fundamentally rethink energy strategies, Jemelkova said. The crises have heightened awareness of energy security and costs, creating new urgency around domestic resource development and diversified supply partnerships. "Imagine what we could do with that if we were to invest it into clean technologies, into resilience measures," Jemelkova said. "The value that we're wasting right now is tremendous." The Hydrogen Council's 2025 Compass report identified $110 billion in committed low-carbon hydrogen investments. Hydrogen inflection point The doubling of operational hydrogen capacity represents a crucial inflection point for an industry that has moved rapidly from the megawatt to gigawatt scale. Of some 1,700 announced projects globally, around 510 have reached advanced stages, passing final investment decisions or entering construction, according to the Hydrogen Council's tracking data. Those statistics were reflected in the mood at the World Hydrogen Summit, with executives optimistic about the sector following a period of policy uncertainty, project delays and cancellations, and consolidation. Discussions have focused on scaling production, whereas just a year ago the emphasis was on implementation of policy, plans and projects. The Hydrogen Council has called on governments to accelerate implementation of existing policies, particularly in Europe where ambitious strategies have not fully translated into market reality. Jemelkova said the Hydrogen Council's call to action had received a positive reception from officials, including the Dutch energy minister who chaired the meeting. She said the practical implementation of frameworks like the EU's Renewable Energy Directive and rules for renewable fuels of non-biological origin could provide significant momentum. "Just the implementation of what we already have could be a big boost," Jemelkova said. "Obviously, it wouldn't be enough, but it would give industry the confidence to keep going and keep building." European hydrogen rule review The European Commission's review of rules governing renewable hydrogen production has divided industry participants, with some supporting the postponement of requirements like additionality and temporal matching, while first movers who have already taken investment decisions seek regulatory certainty. The planned move to hourly matching of hydrogen production with renewable generation would add about Eur2/kg to production costs, industry leaders say. Platts assessed the cost of EU-compliant green hydrogen production via alkaline electrolysis in the Netherlands, backed by renewable power purchase agreements, at Eur9.46/kg ($11/kg) on June 3. The Hydrogen Council advocates rationalizing Renewable Fuels of Non-Biological Origin rules to enable broader market participation while protecting first movers who responded to regulatory signals. "It doesn't matter if you win the race if you're the only one running," Jemelkova said. "It is really important that we unlock the market, and that requires pragmatism. We need to be practical to allow more players to come in and give everyone the opportunity to transition." Jemelkova said any review must be completed quickly and decisively, potentially through mechanisms like grandfathering to balance opening markets with maintaining advantages for early projects. "We cannot have another two or three years of wondering which way to go," Jemelkova said. "If the European Commission wants to review, please do it quickly and decisively so that we know where we stand." US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/060326-brazilian-cbio-prices-hit-lowest-level-in-platts-series</link><description>Platts assessed the Brazilian Decarbonization Credit, or CBIO, at the lowest level in its historical series June 2, at Real 24/metric ton of CO2 equivalent. The series dates back to June 3, 2024, with the previous low on Dec. 16, 2025, at Real 24.5/mt. The move followed a preliminary injunction issued May 27 by Brazil&amp;apos;s federal audit court, the TCU, suspending the effects of administrative</description><title>Brazilian CBIO prices hit lowest level in Platts series</title><pubDate>03 June 2026 20:00:42 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Monique Murer</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Agriculture, Energy Transition, Biofuels, Emissions June 03, 2026 Brazilian CBIO prices hit lowest level in Platts series By Monique Murer Editor: Derek Sands Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS CBIO prices fall to record low at Real 24/mt Court suspends penalties for pre-2025 compliance shortfalls Higher 2026 mandate fails to tighten market Platts assessed the Brazilian Decarbonization Credit, or CBIO, at the lowest level in its historical series June 2, at Real 24/metric ton of CO2 equivalent. The series dates back to June 3, 2024, with the previous low on Dec. 16, 2025, at Real 24.5/mt. The move followed a preliminary injunction issued May 27 by Brazil's federal audit court, the TCU, suspending the effects of administrative sanctions against fuel distributors that failed to meet RenovaBio compliance obligations for cycles closed through Dec. 31, 2024. The decision did not suspend current or future compliance obligations. It ordered the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels, or ANP, to design a regularization program for distributors with past shortfalls, while temporarily suspending penalties, such as fines and restrictions on fuel commercialization, tied to those earlier cycles. That means that distributors previously exposed to penalties for past non-compliance may now have less incentive to buy and retire CBIOs in the prompt market while they wait for ANP's regularization framework. As a result, the decision is likely to weigh on near-term CBIO demand, even though the underlying obligation has not been canceled. Higher 2026 mandate fails to tighten prompt market The 2026 national CBIO target is higher than in 2025, at 48.09 million CBIOs, compared with 40.39 million CBIOs in 2025, an increase of 19.1%. Despite the higher annual target, the market does not appear as tight as the headline obligation would suggest, with CBIOs prices at a record low. Brazil CBIO market indicators, Jan. 2-June 2 2025 2026 Difference Year over Year Annual target million CBIOs 40.39 48.09 19.1% Accumulated retirements million CBIOs 6.17 8.73 41.5% Retirements / annual target % 15.3% 18.2% 2.9% Remaining annual target million CBIOs 34.22 39.36 15.0% Total stocks million CBIOs 28.27 28.52 0.9% Stocks / annual target % 70.0% 59.3% -10.7% Definitive trading volume million CBIOs 34.00 40.59 19.4% Definitive trading volume / annual target % 84.2% 84.4% 0.2% Retirements reached 8.73 million CBIOs from Jan. 2 to June 2, 2026, compared with 6.17 million CBIOs in the same period of 2025. As a share of the annual target, retirements stood at 18.1% in 2026, up from 15.3% in 2025, indicating stronger year-over-year compliance progress. CBIO stocks, meaning all CBIOs available in the market and not yet retired, also remained broadly stable in absolute terms, while declining relative to the annual target. Total stocks stood at 28.52 million CBIOs on June 2, 2026, compared with 28.27 million CBIOs on the equivalent date in 2025, an increase of only 0.9%. But because the 2026 target is materially higher, stocks represented a lower share of the annual target -- 59.3% in 2026, compared with 70.0% in 2025. CBIOs over the long term When considering potential movements in CBIO prices over the mid- and long-term, several factors should be taken into account. According to Frank Nadimi, consultant at S&amp;P Global Energy Horizons, one important variable is the "compliance rate." This means that the price level of CBIOs will increase when compliance levels compared to the obligations set by the Ministry of Mines and Energies increase. Another aspect is the biofuels considered under the CBIOs. Brazil's supply/demand for ethanol and biodiesel, which comprise the majority of emitted CBIOs, is well established with a large domestic balance. "When considering sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel, these biofuels should be evaluated in a more international context, as the SAF and RD markets are in an earlier stage of development and global supply chains are being formed," Nadimi said. "Hence, SAF- and RD-related CBIO levels will likely show a degree of correlation with international credit levels, whereas the majority of CBIOs will remain ethanol- and biodiesel-related." S&amp;P Global Energy Horizons has developed a proprietary, long-term CBIO price-forecasting methodology through 2060, with different scenarios impacting CBIO value. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/lng/060526-interview-australias-nh3-clean-energy-targeting-wah2-project-fid-by-year-end-chairman</link><description>Australia&amp;apos;s NH3 Clean Energy aims to take a final investment decision on its WAH2 project by year-end, with commercial ammonia-bunkering operations set to start in 2030, aiding the use of cleaner fuels to accelerate decarbonization, Chairman Charles Whitfield told Platts, part of S&amp;amp;P Global Energy, in an interview. The WAH2 project is NH3&amp;apos;s flagship project to supply low-emissions ammonia. The</description><title>INTERVIEW: Australia&amp;apos;s NH3 Clean Energy targeting WAH2 project FID by year-end: chairman</title><pubDate>05 June 2026 10:31:27 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Surabhi Sahu</name><name>Ruchira Singh</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Natural Gas, LNG, Fertilizers, Chemicals, Energy Transition, Electric Power, Coal, Renewables June 05, 2026 INTERVIEW: Australiaâs NH3 Clean Energy targeting WAH2 project FID by year-end: chairman By Surabhi Sahu and Ruchira Singh Editor: Aastha Agnihotri Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS WAH2 Project to produce 650,000 mt annually in Phase 1 Secure gas supplies under Western Australiaâs Dom Gas Policy Blue ammonia bunkering commercial operations targeted 2030 Australia's NH3 Clean Energy aims to take a final investment decision on its WAH2 project by year-end, with commercial ammonia-bunkering operations set to start in 2030, aiding the use of cleaner fuels to accelerate decarbonization, Chairman Charles Whitfield told Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, in an interview. The WAH2 project is NH3's flagship project to supply low-emissions ammonia. The project is targeting not only powering bulk carriers carrying iron ore from Australia to Asia for sustainable shipping but also meeting the power needs of the Asia-Pacific region, including the Japanese and South Korean markets, as they decarbonize, Whitfield said. The WAH2 Clean Ammonia Project is one of the few projects that becomes even more important in the light of the conflict, due to its supply from a geopolitically stable source and its proximity to the Asia market, without relying on transshipment through maritime "pinch points", according to Whitfield. The Pilbara to Asia route, also known as the Iron Corridor, is the world's largest shipping route by tonnage. So, it is of prime importance to introduce clean marine fuels, Whitfield said. NH3 Clean Energy plans to offer blue ammonia bunker fuel to customers at the two major Pilbara ports â Port Hedland and the Port of Dampier âwith first production at WAH2 targeted for the end of 2029. Phase 1 will entail a total blue ammonia production of 650,000 metric tons per year, and pre-FEED cost estimates are about $600/metric ton, making the project "very cost-competitive", Whitfield said. Natural gas serves as feedstock for the project, Whitfield shared. "So, we get gas from the North West Shelf, and that comes onshore at Dampier. The Dampier Bunbury pipeline takes that gas towards Perth, and our plant is right next to that pipeline. So, supplies are secure," Whitfield said, reflecting minimal costs as additional infrastructure requirements are diminished. The company secures gas under Western Australia's Dom Gas Policy. That gas is sold at a fixed-price basis, and while it is inflation-linked, it is not linked to global gas or oil indexes, according to Whitfield. "So, we are not exposed to supply risks and volatile prices, particularly amid uncertain global geopolitics such as the prevailing Middle East crisis," he said. "That is very attractive for our customers because our input prices are fixed under long-term supply contracts, offering buyers a smooth and secure portfolio," he added. Meanwhile, some Asian buyers have been sitting on the edge of a volcano in terms of their risk profile related to energy dependence on the Middle East, according to Whitfield. With the Middle East conflict, "that volcano is erupting currently", emphasizing the need to diversify their energy sources, Whitfield said, adding that this will drive the push for using a blend of ammonia and coal in thermal stations, offering many Asian economies the flexibility of maintaining coal-fired power stations while also cutting emissions by blending ammonia. Forging partnerships NH3 Clean Energy has also forged numerous agreements to bring together the various elements of the supply chain ecosystem. In June 2025, NH3 Clean Energy inked a joint development agreement with Oceania Marine Energy, the operator of the bunkering vessel to provide ammonia via ship-to-ship transfers, and the Pilbara Ports Authority, a government enterprise that controls and manages the Port of Dampier, oversees safety in the port waters, and issues bunkering licenses, Whitfield shared. The company signed an MOU with Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd, which builds on the existing JDA between NH3, Pilbara Ports, and Oceania Marine to establish an ammonia hub in the Pilbara by 2030. More recently, NH3 Clean Energy also inked a deal with Japan's Itochu Corp. to build further on the JDA. The agreement aims to aggregate 300,000 TPA of demand to be supplied by NH3's planned WAH2 Project, investigate financing options, and support the FID. Whitfield is optimistic about ammonia's future as a bunkering fuel. "Compared to other alternative marine fuels such as methanol and LNG, we feel ammonia has key advantages," Whitefield said, adding that it is scalable and is carbon-free when combusted. LNG has low emissions, but it is not zero-carbon by any means, and future regulatory frameworks will determine how LNG gets treated from an emissions perspective, Whitfield said. As far as bio-methanol is concerned, it is a question of scale, Whitfield opined. "If you are looking to produce methanol from bio-waste, aggregating enough green waste near a processing hub and having that available at a point where it is required for bunkering is quite challenging," he said. Meanwhile, Whitfield said that some people were disparaging clean ammonia due to the challenges facing the cost and availability of "green" electrolysis-based production. However, blue ammonia does not face these issues as it is an established technology, plentiful, and a low-cost option, according to Whitfield. Platts assessed Australia Renewable-derived Ammonia delivered into Far East Asia, with high-capacity factors at $761.61/mt on June 1, down 0.12% from a month ago. It assessed conventional ammonia CFR, Far East Asia at $800/mt on June 5, up about 3.90% from a month ago. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item></channel></rss>