<rss xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0">
<channel><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/metals/041724-us-tariff-china-impact-trade-tension-steel-copper-aluminum-soybeans-ethane-lng-cleantech</link><description>This series takes a deep dive into the impact of the US-China trade dispute on Chinaâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99;s commodities sector, particularly steel, copper, aluminum, ethane, LNG, soybeans and cleantech.</description><title>US-CHINA TRADE: China&amp;apos;s commodity sector eyes reform and diversification to tackle challenges</title><pubDate>17 April 2025 09:00:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Staff </name></author><content><![CDATA[ 17 Apr 2025 | 09:30 UTC US-CHINA TRADE: China's commodity sector eyes reform, diversification to tackle challenges By Staff Since the US-China trade standoff began a few weeks back, countless editorials have been written about who has more leverage and who can hold out for longer. There are no hard conclusions and, cliched as it may sound, no winners in this battle. The Platts news team brings to you a series that takes a deep dive into the impact of this trade dispute on Chinaâs commodities sector. Speaking with several local industry sources, this series cuts through the noise to deliver what is happening on the ground -- steel mills and copper smelters are worried, aluminum refiners not so much; propane dehydrogenation plants face shutdowns; LNG contracts are getting complicated; food security is not an issue (so far) as Brazilian production ramps up; and pressure has cranked up on the cleantech sector. Editor: Geetha Narayanasamy Headwinds facing Chinese steel industry get stronger HIGHLIGHTS Tariffs to hit exports of manufactured goods to the US Manufacturing accounts for 45% of steel demand Steel production cuts needed to balance markets The headwinds facing Chinaâs steel industry, under pressure for four years from a property slowdown, have intensified with Washington ratcheting up tariffs against the country to 145%, and that is expected to hit a pause button on almost all direct exports of manufactured goods to the US. Chinaâs manufacturing sector accounts for around 45% of the countryâs total steel consumption, according to data from Platts, a part of S&amp;P Global Energy. While Chinaâs domestic demand has remained sluggish, the export markets, particularly for the most steel-intensive mechanical and electrical products, have played a crucial role in supporting the manufacturing sectorâs robust growth and steel consumption in the past few years. In 2024, China exported $2.125 trillion worth of mechanical and electrical products, up 7.5% year over year and accounting for 59.4% of total merchandise exports, according to China customs data. Of this, about $305.97 billion worth of mechanical and electrical products, or 14.4% of the total, were exported to the US. China's manufacturing-related exports to the US Category Exports in 2024 Share of China's total exports Mechanical and electrical products 305.97 14.40% Electrical machinery and equipment and parts 125.98 13.56% Household appliances 28.04 19.43% Automobiles and components 21.57 10.37% Construction machinery and heavy transportation equipment 5.13 4.42% Agricultural and farm machinery 1.71 9.90% Source: China Customs, S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence's Global Trade Analytics Suite Industry sources expect China's steel demand from the manufacturing sector to decline in 2025 as tariffs weaken export-related manufacturing demand in the US. âChinaâs manufactured goods should be able to reroute or find other buyers but that will take some time â¦ I personally think the adverse impact of the US tariffs on Chinaâs manufacturing and its steel demand will be the greatest in the second quarter, until some alternative methods are found,â a steel mill source said. While other sources said it was too early to say anything given the volatility in US trade policy, they added that this high policy uncertainty could lead to a slowdown in the global economy, which will weaken demand for Chinese manufactured goods and steel. Even without the US tariff hikes, Chinaâs direct steel exports were set to decline in 2025 amid rising trade barriers worldwide. Chinaâs exports of semi-finished and finished steel hit an all-time high of 117.055 million mt in 2024 amid slowing domestic demand, up 25.1% year over year, and accounting for 11% of Chinaâs total steel production, data from China's customs department and the National Bureau of Statistics showed. Vietnam, South Korea, Indonesia and Thailand were the top four destinations for Chinaâs steel exports in 2024, accounting for about 28% of Chinaâs total steel exports. The US has so far paused 25%-46% reciprocal tariffs on these four countries for 90 days as of April 9, but a resumption in these tariffs will impact their demand for Chinese steel. Overseas orders falling âSince the US raised its tariffs to 20% on all imports from China on March 4, our downstream manufacturing clients have already seen their overseas orders falling,â a mill source in China said. âOur silicon steel orders totaled around 60,000 mt/month in early 2025, but have now fallen to just 20,000 mt/month,â he added. Silicon steel is widely used in electric machines, or motors, which convert electrical energy into mechanical energy or vice versa, and is key to mechanical and electrical products. Another market source said a major heavy machinery manufacturer had an export gross profit margin of around 5%-10% at the end of 2024. âWith a 20% tariff hike in early 2025, I think this manufacturer could still manage to export some of its products to the US, but now with tariffs up to 145%, it becomes impossible [to export to the US],â the source said. âWith the 145% tariff, except for a few high-margin American importers, such as those importing Chinese clothing, who may be able to bear the tariff burden themselves, most Chinese manufacturers have to find re-routing channels to the US, or find other buyers,â a market source said. Steel production cuts âAs Chinaâs steel exports demand is going to decrease and manufacturing demand will also come under pressure, we have Chinaâs crude steel production in 2025 down around 37 million mt year over year to 968 million mt, but the cut may need to be deeper [with the US reciprocal tariffs up to 145%], preferably closer to 75 million mt, in order to keep supply and demand in balance,â Paul Bartholomew, senior analyst at Energy, said. Market talk has suggested that China is planning to mandate a crude steel production cut of 50 million mt in 2025 from 2024. However, as of April 10, the central government remained muted over steel production cut measures for 2025. As most steel mills are currently still operating at a profit, with hot-rolled coil sales margins at around Yuan 100-150/mt ($13.6-$20.4/mt) and rebar margins at around Yuan 50/mt, the average utilization rate at China's blast furnaces reached around 90% as of early April, up from 86% in late February and around six percentage points higher year over year, according to market sources. Some trading sources said given the downward pressure on Chinaâs economic growth in 2025, it remains to be seen whether there will be government-mandated steel output cuts. The ferrous metal smelting and processing industry accounts for 6.02% of Chinaâs GDP and as of February employed around 1.745 million people, down 3.8% year over year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. However, they believe the rising steel production, coupled with shrinking demand, would drive steel prices lower in April and May, squeezing margins and leading to a decline in iron and steel production in the near future. Platts-assessed domestic HRC prices fell to Yuan 3,250/mt on April 11, down 3.6% from Yuan 3,370/mt at the end of March and 14.7% from Yuan 3,810/mt a year ago. In tandem with the expectation of falling iron and steel production, sources said they expect the iron ore market to shift into surplus in the second half of 2025, further driving down iron ore prices. Factoring in trade tensions, Energy analysts said they estimate iron ore prices to remain at an annual average of $98/dmt for 2025, down from the annual average of $109.44/dmt in 2024. Potential stimulus measures are expected to help absorb some steel demand, supporting prices above $93/dmt in the second half of 2025, they added. By Mriganka Jaipuriyar and Jing Zhang, Market Specialist - Metals Dispute leaves Chinaâs copper industry on edge amid persistent negative margins US largest supplier of copper scrap to China Tariffs put US supplies at risk Tight copper concentrate supply lifts demand for copper scrap Chinaâs copper smelting industry, suffering from persistent negative margins, is anxiously watching the US-China trade dispute given its heightened dependence on the US for copper scrap amid tight copper concentrate supply. Chinaâs clean copper concentrate treatment charges and refining charges have been in negative territory since Dec. 30, 2024, due to tight copper concentrate supply, and a shortfall in US scrap imports will worsen this situation, industry sources told Platts, a part of S&amp;P Global Energy. Platts assessed the CIF China clean copper concentrate TC/RC at minus $35.3/mt and minus 3.53 cent/lb, respectively, on April 15. This compares to minus $1.6/mt and minus 0.16 cent/lb at the start of 2025. They are at their lowest level since Platts started the assessment on Feb. 1, 2021, and underscores the tightness in copper concentrate supply. Chinese smelters are essentially now having to pay miners to turn their ore into metal. The TC/RCs could see continued pressure in the second quarter on prevailing tight ore supply and expanding smelting capacity, aggravating historical lows already reached in the first quarter, according to Energy Metals Trade Review. China is the worldâs largest processor, importer and consumer of copper, a critical mineral needed for all the most important clean energy technologies -- electric vehicles, solar PV panels, wind turbines, power grids and hydrogen electrolyzers -- which have been a pillar for Chinese growth over the last few years. US supplied nearly 20% in 2024 China imported a total 2.25 million mt of copper scrap in 2024, up 13.2% from 2023, with the US its top supplier and accounting for 19.5% of the supplies. A combination of tight copper concentrate supplies and expanding secondary copper processing capacity has pushed up demand for copper scrap from China. Demand is expected to go up further this year with 1 million mt of secondary processing capacity due to come online, according to data from state-run research agency Antaike. Beijing on April 11 raised tariffs on US imports to 125% in a whipsaw action that has seen both countries double down on tariffs, a move that could leave Chinaâs copper scrap buyers scrambling for alternative supplies at a time of negative margins. Chinese copper smelters have been using more copper scrap since 2024 to tackle slow growth in copper concentrate supply led by disruptions in global mines, a decline in new copper ore resources and the long development cycle for copper mines. Chinaâs secondary copper output using copper scrap as a main raw material accounted for 32.6% of the countryâs total refined copper output in 2024, according to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association. The US has a relatively well-established scrap copper recycling system with mature technology, which makes its copper scrap particularly attractive to the Chinese smelters owing to their stable quality with a high copper content. But Chinese importers started scaling back their purchases of US copper scrap in November 2024 as concerns grew around Chinaâs potential retaliation against US President Donald Trump's tariff escalation on Chinese goods. A partial recovery in import activity was observed in January, driven by the absence of additional tariffs imposed by China on US copper scrap, but despite the modest rebound, import volumes from the US remained subdued, constrained by rising costs caused by high copper prices on the Commodity Exchange Inc and lingering uncertainties surrounding bilateral trade policies. Copper prices on COMEX, part of the CME Group, rose significantly after Trump signed an executive order to investigate an alleged national security threat to the copper supply chain under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act on Feb. 25, 2025. The Comex copper first position closed at 521.6 cents/lb on March 26, hitting the highest level since April 12, 2020, according to data tracked by Platts. Avoiding costly closures So far, smelters have continued to seek copper supplies and run their plants, as shutting down smelting operations can be costlier. They are able to maintain operating rates owing to term TCs, which cover the processing of term supply of copper concentrate, and is set at $21.25/mt for 2025. A fixed processing fee with downstream processors for copper cathode and healthy prices of sulfuric acid -- a byproduct of copper smelting -- have so far helped them manage their balance sheet and avoid large-scale operational cuts despite the negative margins. But large-sized copper smelters typically cover 70%-80% of their copper concentrate via long-term contracts, and supplement this with spot supplies of copper concentrate or copper scrap, where the margins are steeply negative and vulnerable to US supply risks. âThere is no need to import copper scrap from the US now and it seems more economical to import copper cathodes instead,â said a southern China-based analyst. Copper cathode is mainly imported from the Democratic Republic of Congo, home to the unregistered Equivalent Quality Grade A (EQ) copper cathodes. Downstream processors have been increasing the usage of EQ copper cathodes since last year, with the trend expected to continue in 2025. Smelters are also exploring alternative sources for copper scrap like Russia and Southeast Asian countries, sources said. During the 2018 trade conflict, China had imposed a 25% tariff on US copper and aluminum scrap imports, leading to a sharp drop in US supplies. China has since increased its scrap metal imports from Southeast Asian countries like Malaysia, which became the largest copper scrap supplier to China in 2019 and 2021. Further expanding domestic recycling capacity is also on the table, some sources said. China in its action plan released early this year highlighted the construction of integrated copper scrap recycling bases and networks, with the aim to push âhigh-quality developmentâ of the copper industry through the next two years. By Mriganka Jaipuriyar, Lucy Tang, Market Specialist - Metals, and Han Lu Chinese aluminum industry braces for economy risk, but well-prepared HIGHLIGHTS Focuses on high-quality product development Domestic market remains cornerstone Export diversification to continue A potential global economic slowdown triggered by US President Donald Trumpâs whipsaw tariff policies is the biggest risk facing Chinese aluminum demand and exports, though the industry is holding out hope that strategies around climbing up the value chain, focusing on domestic demand and exploring new export markets will hold it in good stead as it battles unpredictable tariff regimes and supply chain diversification efforts. China, the worldâs largest aluminum refiner, exporter and consumer, in late March announced a plan to push for high-quality development of its aluminum industry to ensure stable raw materials supply, facilitate technological innovation and sustainability and ensure that it remains central to the global aluminum supply chain. Other strategies include finding new markets, strengthening existing trade ties as evident by Chinese President Xi Jinpingâs Southeast Asia tour this week, and focusing more on the domestic market. But with the Trump administration launching large-scale global anti-trade policies and tariffs, the implications for the Chinese manufacturing sector -- which consumes 50% of total aluminum supply -- and for some of Chinaâs key aluminum export markets could be severe. The US has imposed a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, which takes the tariffs on imports from China to 45%, adding the 20% fentanyl-related tariffs that Chinese suppliers face. If antidumping and countervailing tariffs for specific aluminum products are added, the exact product-specific tariff rates are much higher. Meanwhile, the US also has a tariff of 145% on all imports from China, and a currently suspended tariff rate of between 24% and 49% on some of Chinaâs key export markets. A sharp blow to Chinaâs exports of manufactured goods could cast a shadow on the aluminum industry as domestic demand in China may not be able to fully offset any reduction in exports, said an eastern China-based analyst, adding that a few downstream processors presently are without any new export orders because of prevailing economic uncertainty and demand in the seaborne market has declined. But some of this impact could be dulled given Beijingâs concerted effort to reduce reliance on the US following the first trade dispute in 2018. Realignment of global trade The US accounted for nearly 16% of Chinaâs semi-finished aluminum product exports in 2017, but that market share began declining in 2018 and never really recovered, standing at a modest 4% in 2024, according to data from S&amp;P Global Market Intelligenceâs Global Trade Analytics Suite. In the case of finished aluminum product exports, the market share has remained steady at around 16% even as Chinaâs exports have risen by 52% from 2017 to 2024, the data showed. In comparison, Mexicoâs market share in Chinaâs semi-finished exports has gone up from 3.8% in 2017 to 10% in 2025, while Canadaâs has gone up from 2.3% to 4%. Asian countries including Vietnam, Thailand and South Korea have also seen a jump in market share. As the trade dispute deepens, this could trigger another round of global aluminum trade realignment first seen in 2017, as Chinese exporters further intensify efforts to diversify into new markets, including countries in the Middle East and Africa under its Belt and Road Initiative, while ramping up offshore capacity plans, industry analysts said. The global aluminum supply chain landscape went through a significant change since 2017 as major tariffs slapped by the US on Chinese aluminum forced China to reduce exports to the US. At the same time, other markets including the EU, Southeast Asia, Japan and South Korea raised aluminum exports to the US. China, meanwhile, raised aluminum exports to these countries as they rushed to meet local consumption and export needs, increasing their reliance on Chinaâs aluminum. China has also accelerated building production capacity overseas with the aim to supply export markets with foreign-based production. With a strategically distributed production network spanning Canada, Mexico and the US, the company is well-positioned to mitigate tariff-related risks through flexible supply chain adjustment, said Zhejiang Wanfeng Aowei Auto Wheel, a leading aluminum alloy wheel hub producer in China. Strong domestic consumption Chinaâs strong domestic consumption also shields its aluminum industry. Chinaâs semi-finished aluminum products have been frequently subjected to antidumping and countervailing duties in the past decade, and local demand is the primary engine behind rising aluminum production in China. In 2024, only 12%, or 6.63 million mt, of total aluminum production was exported, with the remaining 88%, or 50.23 million mt, consumed domestically, according to data from state-owned research agency Antaike. The compound annual rate of growth for domestic full-scope aluminum consumption and exports was 5.3% and 4.4%, respectively, over 2015-2024, showing the edge domestic consumption had in the overall growth. For the domestic market, growing demand from the energy transition sector and home appliance industry would continue to serve as the key pillars supporting China's overall aluminum consumption growth, industry sources said. In addition, China has been exploring new growth avenues for aluminum consumption, such as replacing copper with aluminum, which becomes economically viable at a time when copper prices have been hovering at high levels. A variety of measures have also been adopted by Chinese aluminum exporters to mitigate the impact of a 13% export tax rebate cancellation that was introduced on Dec. 1, 2024, including shifting to processing trade models and transitioning towards exporting high-value-added aluminum products. Processing trade refers to the activity of importing all, or part of, required raw and auxiliary materials from abroad, and re-exporting related finished products after processing or assembly by companies within China. A key benefit of processing trade is that companies are exempt from customs duties on any imported items and China has introduced guidelines to improve the development of processing trade December 2023. In the long run, the trade dispute will enable Chinese manufacturers to develop aluminum products that have an edge in quality and prices, which will eventually help upgrade the export mix of Chinese aluminum products, industry sources said. By Mriganka Jaipuriyar and Lucy Tang, Market Specialist - Metals Chinaâs PDH plants, ethane crackers face feedstock challenges after retaliatory tariffs HIGHLIGHTS Chinese PDH plants to lower operating rates, potentially shut amid poor margins Chinese ethane users to appeal to the government for tariff exemption, to diversify feedstocks China could source more propane from the Middle East while US LPG may be redirected to India and Southeast Asia Chinaâs propane dehydrogenation plants are expected to cut operating rates or even halt operations, while ethane crackers are considering feedstock diversification after the Chinese government imposed further retaliatory tariffs on US goods. The escalated tariffs by China on US goods -- currently at 125% -- will hit Chinese PDH plant operators and ethylene producers hard, as the US has been a key supplier of feedstocks including propane and ethane to the country. Chinese PDH plant operators, who have been suffering losses in recent months amid negative margins, source about half of their propane feedstock from the US, industry sources said. Their margins averaged at a negative Yuan 268.6/mt (minus $36.7/mt) in Q1 2025, narrowing from an average of minus Yuan 328.3/mt (minus $44.9/mt) in Q4 2024, according to local energy information provider JLCâs data. Already, overall costs were expected to increase by around Yuan 1,000-2,000 ($137-$274)/mt when China first imposed a 34% tariff on US goods, said a JLC analyst, and this could go even higher with an additional 50% tariff on April 10, and another 41% on April 12. The import cost of propane, which accounts for about 80% of the total production cost at PDH plants, plays a vital role in the survival of those plants, according to market sources, who added that such plants typically have no alternative feedstocks available. China has the worldâs largest PDH processing capacity. S&amp;P Global Energy projected the total processing capacity at China's PDH plants to reach 24.26 million mt/year in 2025, up by 2.68 million mt/year or 12.4% from the 21.58 million mt/year in 2024. The margins for cracking propane into propylene for Shandong PDH plants were in negative territory at around Yuan 268.6 ($36.8)/mt in Q1 2025, compared with a loss of Yuan 328.3 ($45)/mt in Q4 2024, JLC data showed. Several PDH plants in China cut operation rates in the first-half of April following the hikes in import tariffs, with run rates of the surveyed 32 plants averaging 67.7% of capacityas of April 10, down by about five percentage points from a week earlier, JLC data showed. These plants usually sign one-year term contracts with propane suppliers, so they would probably have to pay the cancellation fees, or lift the minimum amount based on their respective contracts amid lower operating rates, sources added. Ethane crackersâ dilemma Chinese producers using ethane as a feedstock plan to file an appeal with the government to exempt ethane feedstocks from the tariffs, local market sources said, given that the US is almost the sole supplier of bulk ethane shipments globally, according toS&amp;P Global Market Intelligenceâs Global Trade Analytics Suite. Beyond that, players like Chinaâs Wanhua Chemical Group aim to diversify their feedstock supplies and may rely more on naphtha under the increased tariffs on US ethane imports, given the generally recovering price spread between ethylene and naphtha from January to April, Platts, a part of Energy, reported previously. About 70% of Chinaâs ethylene production is currently derived from naphtha, according to Sinopec's Economics and Development Research Institute 2024 annual report, but with higher yields and much better margins, industry players have long seen ethane cracking as a saving grace. Analysts and market sources initially expected ethane cracking to remain profitable even with a 34% tariff on US feedstock, but a further 91% tariff from China has thwarted such hopes. China imported 175,000 b/d of ethane in the first two months of 2025, down by 7.9% from 190,000 b/d in 2024. But the supply from the US increased to 99% in January-February 2025, from 98.2% in 2024, and 97.8% in 2023, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. Shifting trade patterns Chinese propane importers will likely have to source feedstock from the Middle East and other regions following the additional tariffs, market sources said. Cargo swaps, a strategy used during the 2019 US-Chinatrade conflict, may resurface as Chinese importers seek partners to swap US cargoes. âIf [Chinese importers] switch to other alternative sources with lower import tariff, the price of those cargoes will likely be pushed up, while at the same time, other buyers from Southeast Asian countries may switch to procure from the US,â a Northeast Asia industry source said. S&amp;P Global Commodities at Sea anticipates significant shifts in propane trade flows, with US LPG potentially redirected to India and Southeast Asia, while Algerian LPG may increasingly head to China. âChinaâs importers may need to source about 15 million mt/year of their propane imports from other regions following the increased tariffs on the US supply,â another trade source said. However, with the export volume from the Middle East comparatively lower compared with the US, itâs unlikely for them to be able to meet their demand from other regions, sources said. The deficit will likely be met by purchasing US propane indirectly from other countries, they added. In line with the quick expansion of the PDH capacity in China, the countryâs propane imports reached 29.24 million mt in 2024, up by 13.8% from a year earlier, General Administration of Customs data showed. At the same time, Chinaâs reliance on US propane increased to 59.2% in 2024, making it the biggest supplier. On the ethane front, ethane crackers might have to increase purchases of naphtha to make up for the loss in ethane feedstock, but the extent of switching would be clearer down the road as these crackers are fairly new and companies are still assessing how much naphtha is needed to replace the shortfall in ethane, according to sources with knowledge of the matter. On April 10, China's Wanhua Chemical bought two 25,000 mt naphtha cargoes with a minimum of 65% paraffin content via a tender that closed on April 9. One cargo for delivery over May 11-20 to Yantai was awarded at a premium of about $13/mt to Mean of Platts Japan naphtha assessments, CFR, with pricing over the second half of April prior to delivery,trade sources said. The cracker is currently using a 50-50 feed of ethane and naphtha, but its configuration might be tweaked to favor more naphtha if shipments of ethane are cut, a source close to the matter told Platts. By Daisy Xu, Market Specialist - Oil and Rong Wei Neo Chinaâs US LNG import tariffs complicate strategy for term buyers HIGHLIGHTS Chinese term lifters swapping US LNG US term supplies to rise 75% in 2026 Minimal domestic market impact so far Chinaâs tariffs on US LNG imports, which currently stand at 140%, have no immediate impact on Chinese supplies given the stoppage of US LNG inflows since February, but are complicating strategies for domestic buyers with long-term US LNG contracts. A series of tariff implementations between the world's two largest economies is expected to impact global LNG trade flows, with China needing to find ways to swap or resell its over 4 million mt/year US LNG supply in the market in 2025. Chinese state-owned companies have signed 25.6 million mt/year of medium- and long-term contracts with US suppliers. Of the total, 20.3 million mt are active contracts, that is, either delivery has begun or the project has passed a final investment decision stage, while the remaining are yet to pass FID, according to data from S&amp;P Global Energy. While tariffs may not have an immediate impact on China's overall LNG supply, they alter trade flows and increase the workload and costs for importers holding US LNG contracts, market sources told Platts, a part of Energy. China is the worldâs largest LNG importer. It imported 76.65 million mt in 2024, with US supplies accounting for 5.4% of total imports at 4.16 million mt, Platts calculations based on Chinese customs data showed. China ceased importing US LNG after Beijing imposed an initial retaliatory 15% tariff in February, and subsequent increases in the tariff rates since are viewed as a mere numerical escalation without new implications, for LNG supplies, sources said. To circumvent tariffs, Chinese LNG importers with US term contracts that have begun delivery are optimizing their US cargoes by swapping them with non-US cargoes in the spot market, according to sources. By the end of 2025, the deliverable LNG contract volume from the US could be a little over 4.1 million mt with China having already received 263,397 mt before the US' tariff announcements in February, up from 3.3 million mt/year in 2024, Energy data showed. "We will first sell the US cargoes in the international market and then decide whether to buy back non-US cargoes based on demand and price," explained a trader from a state-owned company, adding that cargo swaps have so far not incurred additional costs. However, he acknowledged that if demand for cargo swaps increases significantly in the future, these operations may inevitably incur a premium. For instance, a surge in US LNG supply could lead to lower prices for that grade, or increased demand for non-US LNG might drive up prices, resulting in additional costs for swaps. Since most US LNG term contracts are signed on a free-on-boardbasis, swap operations are primarily conducted by buyers, market sources said. "Not all US contract volumes may need to be swapped. If domestic demand is weak, importers may choose not to buy back after selling," the trader with the state-owned company said. Alternatively, some importers may consider utilizing their storage capacity to buy volumes ahead of peak demand season to avoid paying high premiums when demand is strong and there are simultaneous cargo swap demands, he added. In response to a series of US tariffs, China imposed a 10%-15% tariff on US crude, LNG and coal effective Feb. 10, and a 10%-15% tariff on US agricultural products effective March 10. Furthermore, a 34% reciprocal tariff on all US imports was initially implemented and later increased twice, reaching a total of 125% effective April 12, which raised the total tariff on US LNG to 140%. Challenges and uncertainties This year, the contract volume from the US is relatively low, allowing buyers the flexibility to resell cargoes wherever they find profitable opportunities. However, as significant supplies from the China-US contracts begin delivery in 2026, Chinese buyers may face greater challenges in executing large swap operations through the spot market, industry sources said. Six new contracts are expected to commence delivery in 2026, raising the deliverable contract volume to 7.7 million mt, a 75% increase from the 2025 level, according to Energy data. Some traders said it was premature to be concerned about next year's situation. "For contracts next year, it may be too early to draw conclusions as uncertainties remain," a trade source from a company holding US LNG contracts said. "Notably, Trump's tariff decisions could still be modified or reversed. For instance, in 2018, the tariffs were in effect for only a few months," the trade source said, adding there is still time for preparation. Another trader echoed similar sentiment, saying that the Trump administration's policies could change at any time, making it difficult to formulate long-term plans amid uncertainty. However, there is a general consensus that the escalating US-China tariff war is expected to significantly impact LNG trade between the two nations in the future. As the US strategy against China becomes increasingly apparent, Chinese importers are likely to be less inclined to sign long-term LNG contracts with the US, opting instead for suppliers from countries perceived as less hostile, an industry source in southern China said. Australia, Qatar, Russia and Malaysia are currently the top four LNG suppliers to China, supplying 26.2 million mt, 18.3 million mt, 8.3 million mt and 7.7 million mt in 2024, respectively, accounting for 34%, 24%, 11% and 10% of China's total LNG imports, according to data from Chinese customs. Minimal domestic impact Meanwhile, there is minimal impact on domestic prices from the tariffs. "Currently, the impact of the US LNG tariff on domestic LNG prices is minimal as these are primarily driven by domestic market supply and demand fundamentals. US imports constitute a small portion of the overall supply," a trade source from an LNG terminal in eastern China said. The average price of trucked LNG at more than 20 LNG terminals in China was estimated at Yuan 4,698/mt on April 14, down 4% from early March, according to data from the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange. Regarding the impact of tariffs on gas demand from downstream customers, the source said: "We have not received notifications of reduced demand from them. It will likely take one to two months to observe any significant impact as these tariffs were just introduced." By Cindy Liang, Market Specialist - LNG, Gas and Power, Mriganka Jaipuriyar and Ying Ting Lew China sanguine about soybean supplies as Brazil ramps up production HIGHLIGHTS US market share down since 2018 Some concerns for Q4 when Brazilian supplies thin Soybean crushing industry bearing the brunt China is sitting sanguine about meeting its vast soybean import needs despite the ongoing tariff conflict with the US as over the last several years it made a concerted effort to develop alternative supply chains, especially turning to Brazil to buy more of the grain. But its crushing industry is feeling the brunt of the conflict, which has induced price volatility and significantly cut crushing margins. In some ways, the 2018 trade dispute during US President Donald Trumpâs previous term has turned out to be a blessing as it forced China -- the worldâs largest soybeans importer -- to cut the share of US supplies in its import basket. The US remains Chinaâs second largest soybean supplier, but its share fell to 24% in 2024 from 32% before 2018. The market share is expected to shrink even further given a robust production outlook for Brazil. Brazilâs soybean area expansion over the last 30 years has been mostly to support growing Chinese demand. The countryâs 2025-26 soybean crop is estimated at 171.5 million mt, about 12% above the previous season, according to data from S&amp;P Global Energy. Brazil has been the largest soybeans supplier to China since 2013, accounting for 68% of Chinaâs soybeans imports in 2024, according to the US Department of Agriculture and S&amp;P Global Commodities at Sea data. In response to a series of US tariffs, China imposed a 10% tariff on US soybeans effective March 10. Furthermore, a 34% reciprocal tariff on all US imports was initially implemented and later increased twice, reaching a total of 125% effective April 12, which raised the total tariff on US soybeans to 138%. In major agriculture bulk imports from the US in 2024, China took 13.5% of sorghum, 5.7% of wheat, 3.4% of corn and 77% of soybeans, according to CAS data. China holds robust domestic reserves of around 44 million mt of soybeans, while increased output from South America has bolstered Chinaâs position amid trade tensions, according to the USDA and analysts at S&amp;P Global Energy. Brazilian harvest completed âThe US export window to China generally ends in April,â Jack Larimer, senior research analyst at Energy, said. The Brazilian harvest is essentially complete and China switches to Brazil at this time of year, he said, adding that the overall US soybeans market share is expected to shrink from 27% projected for the current marketing year to 21% due to the tariff dispute. Brazilian soybean shipments to China in March are already the largest-ever monthly volume seen at least in the last eight years, at 11.6 million mt, according to CAS data. âFor soybeans, we expect Chinese demand for Brazilian supply to remain strong, especially between February and June, when Brazil dominates the global export window,â Geraldo Isoldi, agricultural markets analyst at King Korn said, adding that if there is any disruption to US shipments, the Chinese will just accelerate their purchases from Brazil. Brazil's price competitiveness, especially during the peak export period, further supports Chinaâs preference for Brazilian beans. Platts assessment shows SOYBEX FOB New Orleans and SOYBEX FOB Santos at comparable levels in April, but Brazilian prices are lower from December through the first quarter when China buys large volumes. Platts is part of Energy. "[Brazilians have] been selling [soybeans] aggressively these past few days, so [there are] no immediate [supply] concerns. But any slowdown in sales later would certainly affect the market," a Shanghai-based trader said. Chinaâs soybean buyers may start coming under pressure when Brazilian supplies thin out in the fourth quarter and US soybean supplies pick up pace. "The real test comes in Q4 -- everything depends on the Brazilian farmers' willingness to sell," the trader added. Most of the impact from the US-China trade dispute will affect new soybeans crop (September 2025-August 2026), Larimer said. A crushing impact While soybean supplies are currentlynot impacted, Chinaâs soybean crushing industry is feeling the brunt of the trade dispute. Platts-assessed CFR China soybean prices have risen 8% from this yearâs low of $403.35/mt on Jan. 17, to $435.41/mt on April 11. Soybeans are crushed to produce soybean oil and meal, with the latter used to feed Chinaâs massive pig population. Chinaâs weekly crush rate is at its slowest in five years, with cumulative crushing now lagging the previous year by around 1 million mt, according to Energy. âThis is a combination of a seasonal downturn in Chinese crushing as well as uncertainty in the soybean market leading to a slowdown in crushing,â Larimer said. China soybean gross crush margins have now fallen 30% from this yearâs high of Yuan 468.47/mt on March 4 to Yuan 326.91/mt on April 11, Platts data showed. âIn the near term, I expect crushing to remain slower than normal until a stable trade situation is established,â he added. âBarring a new trade agreement similar to the Phase 1 deal signed in 2020, it seems likely that Chinese crushing growth will slow. The exact path is still to be seen, but the likely outcomes are a matter of severity rather than direction,â Larimer said. Overall, the uncertainty caused by US-China tariffs will hurt the Chinese soybeans market and crush demand while supporting Chinese soybean meal prices, he added. By Rohan Somwanshi, Shivam Prakash, Sayona anna John and Mriganka Jaipuriyar Chinaâs EV and battery sectors emphasize domestic market reform HIGHLIGHTS EV exposure to the US limited EV makers diversify to LATAM, Asia while keeping focus on Europe Battery market faces risks amid rising tariffs Chinaâs electric vehicle and battery sectors, seen as the nationâs pillars of growth, have been reeling under pressure from excess capacity and trade barriers, prompting export diversification strategies. But the latest US-China trade dispute, general anti-trade measures and policy uncertainty hurtled by the administration of US President Donald Trump have cranked up pressure on the sector by leaving the domestic economy and demand vulnerable. âChinese cleantech companies are ready for a new âAge of Discovery,â exploring business opportunities around the world. But we hope our policymakers come up with strong measures to stabilize the economic turmoil and stimulate domestic consumer demand,â a Beijing-based cleantech investment manager told Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy. The manager said EV supply chains, like all other supply chains, nowadays count on the home market to be the backbone. In 2024, China sold 12.86 million new energy vehicles, including battery and hybrid EVs, among which 5.86 million vehicles were exported and the remaining consumed by the domestic markets, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. Part of the reason why Beijing has chosen to âfight to the endâ in the trade conflict with the US is the confidence that China has a large domestic market, according to recent government statements. However, the government must adopt effective strategies to further exploit the domestic market amid the ongoing economic turmoil. Based on the provincial-level 14th Five-Year Plan data, Chinaâs total battery and hybrid EV annual production capacity is likely to reach about 36.6 million units in 2025, far above the sales volume in 2024. As such, the domestic market needs to be significantly expanded to address the supply-demand imbalance. Shifting focus to Asia and Europe An EV supplier told Platts that the Asian and European markets have become more important than ever before for them to maintain financial health. On April 10, the EU and China agreed on setting a minimum price on made-in-China EVs, instead of adopting tariffs as the EU had initially proposed. China-based EV producers and battery suppliers widely see this as an encouraging signal, because the melting tension between the EU and China could imply an easier pathway for them to further expand in the EU markets. Compared with the US, the EU is a much larger EV market for China. Based on official customs data, Chinaâs total battery EV export to the EU27 countries was around 222,000 units in the first half of 2024, down by 14.6% year over year due to tariff-related concerns. Besides the EU, Chinaâs other key EV export markets include Brazil, the Philippines, the UK, Thailand, India, Mexico, the UAE, and Australia, customs data showed. Maintaining and strengthening relationships with these countries is also a crucial factor influencing the EV and battery marketâs future amid the US-China dispute. Upstream lithium battery market faces challenges S&amp;P Global Mobilitydata showed final EV exports from China to the US are limited but the upstream lithium battery market will see a significant impact, and battery suppliers will need to find alternatives. Only approximately 5,000 units of Polestar 2 and 200 units of Volvo EX30 light EVs were delivered from China to the US in 2024, and China exported only 974 units of commercial buses and trucks to the US in 2024, of which only 30% were battery EVs, data from Mobility showed. However, 11% of the battery cells in light EVs produced in the US were made in China, and 62% of the cells in commercial medium and heavy vehicles produced in the US were supplied from China, according to Mobilityâs data. The escalating tariffs have made battery exports from China to the US a herculean task. Several battery suppliers said they are still in the middle of calculating the exact tariffs imposed on their products, given that the US government has also introduced other tariffs in recent years. The EV power batteries exported to the US could face up to 193.4% tariffs now, including basic tariffs (3.4%), fentanyl-related levy (20%), Section 301-related tariff (25%) and the reciprocal tariff (145%), a Beijing-based EV analyst told Platts. Most recently on April 14, Trump suggested that he might temporarily exempt the auto industry from tariffs he previously imposed on the sector, to give carmakers time to adjust their supply chains, local media reported. China-based market participants widely see this as a positive signal, which might imply that the Trump administration would pause the 25% tariffs imposed on EVs as well as the various tariffs imposed on EV components, notably lithium batteries. However, the Chinese sources also highlighted that the implementation rules regarding this tariff exemption are highly uncertain and unpredictable, adding that the Trump administrationâs ultimate purpose is still to shift production capacities back to the US, for both EVs and their components. China also exported lithium iron phosphate batteries to the US to build energy storage systems, which are essential to address the intermittency of renewable electricity. A China-based battery supplier said that, even within China, building ESS is capital-intensive, and current tariffs have made some US-based ESS projects economically unviable, which will result in some losses for Chinese companies. Uncertainty in this sector is reflected in prices. Platts assessed battery-grade lithium carbonate at Yuan 70,000/mt ($9,524/mt) on April 9 on a DDP China basis, down Yuan 3,500/mt or 5% compared to the level on April 2, when Trump initiated reciprocal tariffs. This Platts assessment is an indicator of the sentiment in China's battery markets. Economic stimulus On April 9, amid the escalating US-China tariff war, the state-run Peopleâs Daily published a widely circulated opinion article to highlight the countryâs future direction of economic development. The article highlighted that âvigorously boosting consumption is an inevitable choice to inject greater momentum into Chinaâs economic development.â Earlier in March, Chinaâs chief administrative authority, the State Council, launched its Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption, which is widely seen as an overarching guidance to reform the countryâs economy to be more inward-focused and consumer-driven. The article also reaffirmed that the country would continue to support its cleantech industries and decarbonization technologies, securing its role as a global leader in these fields. A Chinese EV retailer told Platts that such consumption-focused reform is likely to be expedited amid the US-China dispute and escalating political uncertainties. He emphasized that, compared with EV-specific policies like trade-in and purchase tax subsidies, a profound structural reform may drive more significant growth in EV sales in the domestic two-wheeler and four-wheeler markets. By Ivy Yin, Market Specialist - Energy Transition Domestic market and export diversification key to Chinese solar manufacturersâ survival Solar industry used to unfriendly tariff regime US policy uncertainty a risk Domestic economyâs health a decisive factor The US-China trade conflict has prompted Chinese solar PV manufacturers to accelerate supply chain diversification, but given all the external uncertainties, tapping into the domestic market remains crucial for their continued survival and success. The administration of US President Donald Trump has imposed a tariff of 145% on imports from China, though the actual tariff rate varies depending on the product. Chinese solar manufacturing companies began supply chain diversification well before the latest trade conflict. Several solar manufacturing companies told Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, that they are used to tariff disputes and have built or are planning to build new manufacturing hubs overseas and explore new export markets. However, given all the external headwinds -- the biggest one being the risk to the global economy from the trade conflict -- the home market remains crucial for Chinese solar manufacturing companies to secure revenues and maintain financial health. Tariffs in the solar industry Decoupling from Chinaâs solar PV supply chains has long been a bipartisan agenda in the US, with initial tariffs introduced on solar PV products in the early 2010s. Back in 2015, the US used to be one of Chinaâs largest export markets for solar modules, but nowadays, direct export from China to the US has become minimal due to escalating tariffs. China Photovoltaic Industry Association data showed that in 2024, 40.7% of made-in-China solar modules were exported to the European markets and 37.5% were exported to the Asian markets. To circumvent US tariffs, Chinese companies have in the last decade built factories in Taiwan, Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam to process semi-finished products and then export them to the US. But the US has tried closing that loophole by imposing barriers on imports from these countries too. In December 2014, the Barack Obama administration imposed antidumping duties of 11.45%-27.55% on solar cells produced in Taiwan, which pushed Chinese manufacturers to shift intermediate hubs to the four Southeast Asian countries. In November 2024, the Joe Biden administration proposed antidumping duties between 21.31% and 271.2%, depending on companies, on solar cells from the four Southeast countries. According to market sources, Chinaâs top solar PV manufacturing companies all faced heavy duties, which significantly weakened the roles played by these four intermediate manufacturing hubs and disrupted trade flows. Diversification becomes riskier than ever Jessica Jin, Principal Research Analyst of Clean Energy Technology at Energy, said the US total domestic production capacity for solar PV modules is expected to reach around 10 GW in 2025, enough to meet current domestic needs. However, she highlighted that the US capacity for upstream solar cell production still falls short, so the Chinese companies may still consider indirect exports of solar cells to the US. âThe rest of Southeast Asia (except Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam) and India can be alternatives (intermediate manufacturing hubs). New capacities in the Middle East are also under planning,â she pointed out. âNow, we have to find new hubs and new ways to unlock the US market, again,â a China-based manufacturer said, echoing Jinâs views. However, the manufacturer highlighted that unlike in the Obama and Biden eras, US trade policies now become highly unpredictable. He noted the recent reciprocal tariffs introduced by the Trump administration on April 2 that swept across countries globally include some alternative hubs considered by Chinese manufacturers, like Indonesia, India and Laos. He added that, despite the pause, such a move indicated the business environment in the US has become riskier than ever. On April 2, the Trump administration announced a 26% reciprocal tariff on India, 48% on Laos and 32% on Indonesia. But all reciprocal tariffs, excluding the ones on China, have been suspended. Home market remains core In 2024, Chinaâs solar PV module exports to the whole world totaled 238.8 GW, CPIAâs data showed. In the same year, the country installed 277 GW of solar PV generation capacity domestically, surpassing any other countryâs total historical capacity addition. Market participants highlighted that maintaining a healthy domestic market is crucial to digesting their solar products and stabilizing market prices. CPIA forecasted that global demand for installation of solar PV generation capacity would reach 531-583 GW in 2025. In 2024, China alone produced 588 GW of solar PV modules, up 13.5% year over year. Due to the persistent supply-demand imbalance, Chinaâs module price fell by 29% year over year, CPIAâs data showed. Platts assessed Chinaâs solar module (50-100 MW) at 9 cents/watt on April 11 on a FOB basis, down by around 22% from July 10, 2024, when Platts started the assessment. Chinaâs module price saw some increments in early 2025, mainly supported by two domestic measures. On one hand, the power marketâs price reform has pushed some risk-averse project developers to expedite their project completion, as projects completed after June 2025 will be pushed to participate in market-based trading and be exposed to greater price volatility. Such a rush for project completion stimulated short-term domestic demand for solar modules in the first half of 2025. On the other hand, top solar PV manufacturers have collectively set floor prices for solar PV products to safeguard their financial health. âFor solar products, we need steady, prosperous domestic markets, both utility-scale and distributed [markets], to secure our business growth,â a Chinese manufacturer said, adding that the countryâs overall economic health will be a decisive factor for energy demand growth and energy transition pace. By Ivy Yin, Market Specialist - Energy Transition Related content: Topic: Trump and Commodities Podcast: Ceasefire, sanctions and tariffs: implications for Asian oil flows Interactive: China diversifies trade partners to mitigate US tariff impact ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/private-markets-360/private-markets-360-episode-54-from-efficiency-to-resilience-navigating-a-new-era-in-private-markets</link><description>In this episode of Private Markets 360Â°, we welcome Thomas Friedberger, Co-CIO of Tikehau Capital. Thomas discusses the shifting macro environment in private markets and the transition from efficiency to resilience as a new paradigm for value creation. With concerns ranging from long cycles of low growth to the evolving role of capital expenditure, Thomas offers a compelling view on how private markets must adapt to these profound changes. Thomas also shares Tikehauâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99;s low-leverage approach an</description><title>Private Markets 360Â° | Episode 54:From Efficiency to Resilience: Navigating a New Era in Private Markets</title><pubDate>29 October 2026 05:00:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Jocelyn Lewis</name><name>Chris Sparenberg</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Podcast â29 October, 2026 Private Markets 360Â° | Episode 54: From Efficiency to Resilience: Navigating a New Era in Private Markets By Jocelyn Lewis and Chris Sparenberg In this episode of Private Markets 360Â°, we welcome Thomas Friedberger, Co-CIO of Tikehau Capital. Thomas discusses the shifting macro environment in private markets and the transition from efficiency to resilience as a new paradigm for value creation. With concerns ranging from long cycles of low growth to the evolving role of capital expenditure, Thomas offers a compelling view on how private markets must adapt to these profound changes. Thomas also shares Tikehauâs low-leverage approach and focus on enablers of resilience, including energy transition, aerospace and defense, as well as opportunities across credit and debt. Credits: Host/Author: Chris Sparenberg and Jocelyn Lewis Guests: Thomas Friedberger Producer: Georgina Lee Published With Assistance From: Feranmi Adeoshun, Kimberly Olvany View Full Transcript Jocelyn Lewis [00:00:00]: Welcome to Private Markets 360, your insider's guide to the world of private investments. Today, we're honored to have Thomas Friedberger, Deputy CEO and CIO of Tikehau Capital, joining us. Thomas is a thought leader whose insights into the macro environment in private markets are shaping investment strategies globally. His perspective highlights a crucial shift from efficiency to resilience, signaling a new paradigm for value creation. With concerns ranging from long cycles of low growth to the evolving role of capital expenditure, Thomas offers a compelling view on how private markets must adapt to these profound changes. Thomas, welcome to Private Markets 360. It's a pleasure to have you with us today. How are you? Thomas Friedberger [00:00:50]: Thank you very much for having me. I'm very fine, thank you. Jocelyn Lewis [00:00:53]: Excellent. Chris Sparenberg [00:00:54]: We're so glad you're joining us, Thomas. And to begin, we'd love to talk about Tikehau Capital and how it operates at the forefront of private markets. Against that backdrop, could you outline your strongest conviction regarding the current macro environment and particularly the shift from efficiency to resilience and what implications that has for private equity? Thomas Friedberger [00:01:15]: Sure. So, Tikehau is an investment firm managing â¬53 billion of assets, and we invest across asset classes like private equity, private credit, liquid assets, and real estate. And indeed, our largest conviction for the last few years, actually since COVID has been that the world is switching from being led with regards to the growth dynamics by a generation of resilience. And it changes a lot of things because in order to gain in resilience, the whole economic systems in this world need a lot of investments, a lot of CapEx, capital expenditure, that will be financed on one side by massive fiscal expansion that we are witnessing all over the world and especially in the Western part of this world. And on the other side, by private financing, which implies also a paradigm shift, which is that for 40 years, probably during the period where interest rates were on the down path between 1982, 20% interest rates in the US for the short-term rates at the Fed, and 2022, 0% interest rates. So 2,000 basis points of rate cuts over 40 years. The companies all over the world did not necessarily need a lot of capital. And so, we have more returning capital than anything else, but the need for a huge capital expenditure to build this resilience is actually making the companies in the world demand capital. Thomas Friedberger [00:02:38]: So we are seeing a massive capital increase. The one from Google is a good example recently, but also massive needs to issue debt on the capital markets,and the hyperscalers are also a good example there. I would say that all of this is reflationary ofthe world,and that's also something which is new. Massive fiscal expansion is inflationary,the fact that the growth will be probably less optimized to be more resilient is inflationary. Thomas Friedberger [00:03:05]: When a company needs to produce closer to the consumer, it's more expensive. Also, companies need to contract new types of insurance against climate risk or against cyber risk. Also, restrictive immigration policies in some countries can be inflationary. AI, there are some very deflationary long-term dynamics for AI, which are quite obvious, but short-term, it's probably a little bit inflationary, putting pressure on the price of semiconductors or electricity, for example. So, we are living in a world now that is probably driven by growth, which is a little bit less driven by consumption, a little bit more by CapEx. So, a slower growth and more concentrated on a couple of sectors, and also a slightly more inflationary world, which implies for companies a challenge because when you have less growth, probably it puts pressure on your revenues. When you have a bit more inflation, it puts pressure on your costs. And so just to finish on this front, the last time this environment was at play in the world was in the '70s. Thomas Friedberger [00:04:07]: In the '70s, there was no private equity, but there were smart investors in this world and they were pretty much all saying the same thing, which is to survive in this kind of environment, when you invest, you have to invest with a margin of safety. And if you look at what happens today, it's the exact opposite, meaning that a lot of capital is being deployed in sectors that are extremely expensive. It's not only about AI, it's also some segments of the fixed income sector, for example. And so, at Tikehau Capital, our main conviction is that the FOMO play, so investing in very expensive things just because you fear of missing out, is not necessarily the best play long term. And investing in this world requires a lot of discipline and a lot of financial fundamental analysis. Jocelyn Lewis [00:04:52]: Certainly makes sense that when we're in this period of higher costs and more CapEx spending, you need to be disciplined as an investor because you really need to focus on what is going to be the driver of those cash flows that are available, not only to create value in a company, but also to repay any debt that you borrow in order to do so. Thomas, you suggest that this new environment will necessitate a change in how private equity invests, moving towards more asset-heavy, Warren Buffett-style approach to investing as opposed to the traditional asset-light, heavily leveraged model. So could you please elaborate on this transformation and the drivers of it? Thomas Friedberger [00:05:42]: Sure. So indeed, this new dynamic of corporate world, if I may say, needing a lot of capital to build those CapEx of resilience, bringing the resilience and the sovereignty for states. It's the same thing. Sovereignty for states and resilience for companies is probably leading to companies being more asset heavy, as you just said. And in parallel, the higher interest rate environment in which we are living is also, of course, making more expensive the cost of financing. And so all in all, the private equity world will probably need to adapt to that. Multiple expansion will be much more challenging in that kind of environment on one side. And when you have to deal with more asset heavy companies, you probably have to hold them for longer with less leverage, and you have to operate much more, I would say, portfolio management at a company level. Thomas Friedberger [00:06:31]: Also, the criteria of selection for companies are changing slightly because of course, when companies have to perform CapEx, what counts is the, I would say, return on capital invested. So, the way the management of the company allocates the free cash flow of the company, do they buy the right plant at the right place at the right time? It's very different from just looking at that growth on asset-light companies. And even in the tech sector, which has by definition historically been an asset-light environment, an asset-light business, especially in the software sector. If you look at companies like Microsoft today, they're much more asset-heavy than before. They own data centers. Some of them are even building electricity production capabilities to feed those data centers. So, I think the quality of the allocation of capital performed by the management, which was exactly what Warren Buffett was looking at when he was investing in the market, will be much more, I would say, a key differentiator in the asset selection than before. So that's why I'm saying that kind of private equity 2.0 in this new reflationary environment should look like what he was doing at the top. Chris Sparenberg [00:07:37]: Yeah, it's certainly clear that these significant macro shifts are changing the state of play, changing what it takes to win. With that in mind, can you tell us how Tikehau Capital is positioning itself to navigate in this new era you're describing? Could you highlight your approach and particularly, I think within that, the leverage and types of companies that you're targeting now? Thomas Friedberger [00:08:00]: Yeah, so historically we've been investing at least on the private equity side in sectors that are a little bit more asset heavy than others, like we, for example, we are not very present in the consumer sector. We are more present in industrial sectors. And so, we're used to investing with less leverage historically, but I would say in this new world, you would need first and foremost, a very clear investment discipline. You need to, to be extremely selective in the assets you will invest in because with higher interest rates, and I would say a less easy environment with regard to the ability for corporates to optimize a lot of things from the capital structure to the supply chain. to, do their taxes. You need to be, the dispersion is going, to rise tremendously inside sectors, between sectors, between geographies, inside geographies. And so, as an investor, you need to be extremely disciplined. And two, you need to be local. Thomas Friedberger [00:08:55]: Flying in, flying out to, do transactions was already not necessarily a good idea when the world was globalized with a high visibility, but it's even less a good idea today. And three, we believe a lot in developing sector expertise. In partnership with corporates from the sector, which is something that we have done extensively at Tikehau Capital. So, we invest in 2 main verticals in private equity, which are on one side electrification and on the other side aerospace, defense, and cybersecurity. And on both sides, we've partnered with corporates to build a very strong sector expertise. And that actually, we think, allows us to navigate better in this environment of high dispersion Jocelyn Lewis [00:09:35]: And a theme that's coming through clearly is certainly your focus on resilience and whether that's maintaining the lower leverage levels or investing in businesses that can perform through different market cycles. And that same discipline seems to extend to how you're thinking about the broader investment landscape today, particularly around interest rates and duration risk. So, let's turn to credit because it appears to be an area where you're definitely seeing opportunity. And if we zoom in on the current interest rate environment and the importance of being selective on duration risk, as well as the importance of credit in this context due to duration risk, could you expand on why credit is an attractive asset class for Tikehau Capital right now? Thomas Friedberger [00:10:31]: Sure. It's true that our conviction for the last 4 years, more or less since the end of the COVID crisis, has been that long-term interest rates are too low for the reasons I just explained. And I think that the fact that the massive fiscal expansion in the West is only accelerating is probably comforting us in this conviction that long-term interest rates are probably too, still too low. And so that's why we've been preferring credit risk to duration risk. So, there are several ways to play that in the fixed income world. In liquid assets, you can go short duration or floating rate structures. In private credit, private direct lending is probably the ideal asset class, I would say, from that perspective, because 100% of the instruments we structure there are floating rate instruments. And so it's pure credit risk that you are taking. Thomas Friedberger [00:11:20]: So of course, with the condition of being extremely selective and prudent in the way you invest, we think that private credit is, will continue to enjoy tailwinds. This is a market which is in expansion both in the US and in Europe. There are very strong dynamics on both sides of the Atlantic for different reasons. In Europe, where we've been one of the pioneers of this business because we've started private credit just before the great financial crisis. There is a real need to build European champions at an SME level, so small and medium-sized enterprises. So, financing acquisitions through private credit is a business which is in expansion. There are 3 times more LBOs financed by direct lending than leveraged loans today, and we think that will continue. Also, there is a convergence between private credit markets and more liquid markets, leveraged loans and high yield, and this private credit universe is also migrating towards the, towards investment grade in the US, and it's also coming in Europe. Thomas Friedberger [00:12:19]: So the market is growing. The risk reward is still attractive, again, with the condition of being extremely selective and extremely disciplined. But I think that at least when you operate in Europe, which is a more fragmented market with respect to North America, you need to be extremely local when you invest because it's also fair to say that defaults are on the rise everywhere. That's part of the business. Those instruments that restructure would be probably rated single B if they were rated. We are financing companies, let's say between 4 and 5 times EBITDA, so that, that's kind of single B rating. And so it's normal to have to manage defaults, but the thing is, probably going forward, there will be much more dispersion between the performance of asset managers for this, for the same asset class. And it's not necessarily the number of defaults that will make the difference, but the way those defaults are managed. Thomas Friedberger [00:13:11]: And we tend to experience, and we've been again doing this business for long enough to have fully exited a pretty decent number of defaulted positions, sometimes recovering, most of the times recovering actually more than par. But the 3 things that make a difference there are one, the size of the platform, because managing a default is extremely time-consuming. So if you have a team which is too small, it's going to probably affect the ability of the team to continue to invest while managing defaults. 2 is you need private equity skills. Because when you take the keys of the company, you take the control of the company. So you need the private equity teams and the private credit teams to work together. And so if you are just doing private credit and you don't have private equity expertise, this is an issue. And the third thing is you need to manage your defaults locally. Thomas Friedberger [00:13:59]: So managing the default in Madrid out of London is definitely not a good idea. And we've witnessed in our experience that having those 3 characteristics, large team, private equity skills, and being local. Makes a huge difference. And sometimes the boundary between zero recovery and positive returns, so more than 100% recovery, is actually linked to those 3 criteria. And maybe one last thing on private credit is we are also welcoming and witnessing strong development of private credit secondaries, especially in the US. We think there is a big opportunity also there with not only the emergence of forced sellers, but also a wide diversity in, I would say, the, the nature of the portfolios that are for sale with the development of the GP-led market. And also, more and more, at the LP level, the secondary market used by CIOs all over the world as a way to, to find liquidity. We think that again, with the condition of being extremely selective and extremely diligent in due diligencing the portfolios, the fact that you can build quickly, you can deploy capital quickly in highly diversified portfolios across sectors, geographies, vintages. Thomas Friedberger [00:15:11]: Portfolios that have a lot of cash flows between maturities and coupons, is actually not only a very good access product for people wanting to put a first step in private credit, but also a provider of potential attractive risk returns. Chris Sparenberg [00:15:27]: It's certainly an advantage to be capable on both the equity and the credit side and to have that flexibility and ability to move quickly and be opportunistic where maybe others can't. I want to talk a little bit about key growth drivers that you're seeing, and specifically, I think CapEx-led investments is an area that's core to your strategy. You have a point on CapEx-led growth driven by themes like defense, decarbonization, what you term economies of war even. Can you break down these areas for us and explain why they represent significant growth opportunities broadly for private capital? Thomas Friedberger [00:16:05]: Yes, I think the, so as I said earlier, we are transitioning from a world probably driven by growth led by consumption to a world where growth will be led more by CapEx. It means that the growth, at least the high growth areas, will be more concentrated on some sectors. And we have the conviction that those sectors will all be linked to the construction of resilience, meaning that the high growth areas should be with the enablers of the resilience, the sellers of picks and shovels of the resilience. And in that, that's what we call the 4 Ds. So defense, decarbonization, digitalization, deglobalization, and the companies involved one way or another in enabling this to happen, those 4 things to actually get stronger, will enjoy high growth in a world of lower growth. So, this is a little bit our thesis, and that's why we've taken pretty early in the cycle the decision to actually manage sector funds, or at least thematic funds in private equity, because we think that, for example, defense or decarbonization represent probably 2 of the, of the best investment opportunities of our generation. Jocelyn Lewis [00:17:19]: And you touched on a recurring theme where many of the biggest investment opportunities come from solving inefficiencies, whether that's transportation, supply chains, or industrial capacity. And one area you mentioned those inefficiencies are especially pronounced is energy transition. So let's dig into that because you've highlighted that Europe needs enormous levels of annual investment. Much of it may be considered low-tech businesses and focusing on that energy transition with Europe requiring that substantial annual investment, with the majority needing to be in these low-tech businesses to address inefficiencies. What makes low-tech energy transition opportunities particularly compelling? Thomas Friedberger [00:18:09]: Thank you for the question. And, and actually, right, but it's not only a European phenomenon, and that's actually what makes it interesting. I think this theme of energy transition, and we prefer to call it electrification now, is actually transitioning from a purely, I would say, environmental-led initiative before the political tension raised in Ukraine and in the Gulf to actually a problematic today completely linked to sovereignty. And that's very interesting because it means that major economic areas in this world are incentivized to decarbonize for different reasons. So Europe, of course, has been dependent on fossil fuels that they don't produce for a long time. And partially for this reason, the regulation has been tougher in Europe in trying to reduce the carbon footprint. That's probably the reason why the solution providers of energy efficiency of buildings, plants, supply chains are first and foremost European companies today. But what we've witnessed, and we launched almost 10 years ago, the first ever private equity fund fully dedicated to electrification and energy transition, which is a European-centric fund. Thomas Friedberger [00:19:19]: At the time, we bought 14 investment companies in this fund. Which business was essentially developed in Europe. So European-centric businesses for European companies. Now we are fast forward 10 years, we are finishing the fundraising of Fund 2, which will probably be one of the largest or the largest European private equity fund dedicated to this theme. And it's very interesting to notice that those European companies that we are buying today have a much more internationalized business. They develop business everywhere in the world. And the reason is probably that it's also in the interest of China to decarbonize, and they've done so very successfully and very quickly, probably to partially reduce their dependency on the US dollar, which we know, and they make no mystery about it, is one of the big priorities of their government. But the number of currently in construction in China , is a testimony of their ability to decarbonize fast. Thomas Friedberger [00:20:11]: They've built also 50,000 kilometers of high-speed train lines in 20 years, which is a record. For the record, in Europe, we only have 8,000 kilometers. 8,500 kilometers of high-speed train lines. And we think that China has come to a point where they now have not only the lowest cost of capital in the world because banks are lending to the Chinese priorities of the Chinese government extremely aggressively, but also the lowest cost of energy production, of electricity production in the developed world. And so, it'll probably also push North America to engage into a dynamic, and it's probably already the case. One of the things I like to observe and to highlight is that of course, the absolute domination currently of the US on AI, can only probably continue if the US can produce abundant, cheap electricity,and probably that decarbonized source of electricity like nuclear, wind, solar, hydro are very good solutions to implement also in the US because it's not only an environmental issue. It's not about that anymore. Thomas Friedberger [00:21:13]: That's not the topic anymore. It's about sovereignty. And thankfully enough, the US has a lot of wind, a lot of space, a lot of water, nuclear expertise and decarbonization is also probably a theme that is and will continue to develop in the US. So the fact that on the hardware side, China is dominating between 65 and 95% of all the supply chains from wind turbines to batteries to solar panels, et cetera. But on the service provider side, so if you look at the IPCC report that CO2 emissions are mainly linked to 4 domains, which are industry, agriculture, transportation, and buildings. So anything linked to the energy efficiency of buildings, plants, industrial processes, the experts in those things are mostly European, and they're developing everywhere in the world. So that's why we think it's a huge investment opportunity. Thomas Friedberger [00:22:05]: And for once, Europe is a leader in this field. Chris Sparenberg [00:22:08]: It's a fascinating look at decarbonization and the energy transition opportunity set. An area that we'd love to deep dive with you is aerospace and defense. You manage one of the largest EMEA funds for aerospace and defense, and that sector's interesting because it has unique characteristics like 20-year programs to develop a plane and a full backlog providing high visibility. What makes this industry so attractive for long-term private equity investment and how do you navigate its specific challenges? Thomas Friedberger [00:22:38]: Yeah, it's an interesting topic because it's a sector that was completely ignored or mostly ignored by investors, at least in, I would sayuntil not long ago for several reasons. One reason, at least in Europe, is that it was excluded from ESG criteria, but it was also a sector that has been extremely challenged in, some way in the past, including during the COVID period, of course. The landscape has completely changed. And so of course the geopolitical tensions and the willingness expressed by pretty much all sovereign areas in this world to increase defense budget is providing some growth perspective for the sector. But it would be a mistake to think that all subsectors are equal in the defense space. The subsector we prefer is aerospace and defense, just because, at least in Europe, we think that on land defense or naval defense, you have only national players that are pure players in defense, while in aerospace, thanks to Airbus mostly, you have actually European champions that also enjoy a dual growth trajectory. So, in the supply chain of Airbus or Dassault in Europe, you do not have any single company only involved in defense. They are all involved in defense and commercial aerospace, and that provides a double growth trajectory. Thomas Friedberger [00:24:04]: On defense, it's pretty obvious. Defense budgets are increasing everywhere in the world. For NATO countries have taken the commitment to spend up to 5% of their GDP in defense and strategic infrastructure. If you look at the share of European companies for the, in the defense budget of European countries, it's only 18%. Most of the revenues go to US companies today. We know that European governments have taken not the commitment, but trying to have to make this number grow, probably to 20%, something like this. So not only the pie is growing, but the share of European companies should grow in that growing pie. of course, a nice growth opportunity. Thomas Friedberger [00:24:42]: But on the other side, on the commercial aerospace side, you have currently 24,000 planes flying in the world, commercial planes. 18,000 are up for replacement because the new generation coming to the market now is consuming 25% less fuel. So in terms of economic, I would say, attractiveness and carbon impact, it makes sense to replace the fleet. Actually, the replacement of the fleet Explains about 1/3 of the path to net zero that this industry has taken. And on top of this replacement of the fleet, you've got another probably about 20,000 planes in the order books to cope with the increase in air traffic. All it provides a massive growth opportunity for the sector and its supply chain, which translates into, for example, for our portfolio companies in this fund, about 12 years of backlog. Which is impressive. And so, if you add to that the fact that valuations are not that expensive because the sector has been out of interest for a very long time, and the fact that there are very strong barriers to entry in this aerospace and defense sector, just because suppliers are certified by their OEMs. Thomas Friedberger [00:25:53]: In an Airbus or in a Boeing plane, you have about 3 million pieces. If one is missing, the plane cannot fly. And so that's the reason why those 20-year programs necessitate an extreme, I would say, level of confidence between the OEMs and their suppliers. So the suppliers receive certification from the OEM. So if you combine high barriers to entry of certification, plus valuations that are acceptable, plus a very strong growth, both in military and commercial, you have a very attractive investment proposition. And that's what we are trying to actually capture. Jocelyn Lewis [00:26:27]: You make it sound very compelling indeed. And Thomas, what's interesting is that many of the themes you've highlighted, whether it's defense, supply chain resilience, or industrial competitiveness, ultimately require massive investment in physical infrastructure and real-world assets. And energy transition is the perfect example of that. And you've mentioned that some of the most compelling opportunities may actually be found outside the typical high-tech narrative. And when we think beyond aerospace and defense, you mentioned real estate as an opportunity because it has been depressed for the last 3 or so years. What factors make real estate attractive now, and how do you approach real estate investments in the current environment? Thomas Friedberger [00:27:21]: Yes, it's true that real estate is probably the only asset class currently which has massively derated. There's been a crisis for several years, pretty much everywhere in the world with a high level of dispersion as well. If you look at offices, top-tier cities, central business district offices are still very expensive, but actually periphery offices in tier 2 cities have completely collapsed. And in pretty much every subsector of the real estate asset class, it has been the case. But you currently have a lot of investment opportunities, so volumes are very low. So we are hitting a bottom in terms of volume. The US market has already started to recover. Europe is about to do so, but you can invest today on valuations that are extremely attractive. Again, you need to be extremely selective. Thomas Friedberger [00:28:08]: So our motto in real estate is location, meaning that you can buy good assets in good locations and then you have probably, if you have an attractive yield, that's attractive. You can buy bad assets in good location and transform them, and then you have a value-add proposition. But never buy bad assets in bad locations because you will never be able to transform them, to convert them. And so you need to be extremely local and selective as well. But with this provision, it's true that we are witnessing currently extremely attractive investment opportunities in retail, for example, where we can acquire shopping malls and reconvert them into more mixed-use areas, let's say, or acquire shopping malls in the core real estate space at double-digit cap rates with vacation rates, which are extremely low. So, you know, we can also acquire hotels and actually upgrade them at very, very attractive prices. Residential real estate is also very attractive. We have been able to demonstrate a track record in acquiring large portfolios of real estate assets in Iberia, for example, Portugal, Spain, but also Germany. Thomas Friedberger [00:29:13]: I would say that it's the only asset class today that has massively derated, but the fact that interest rates are going higher is probably challenging. I would say valuations are still a bit depressed, and so you have extremely attractive investment opportunities in subsectors of real estate. from value-add to core plus, and also financing. So real estate financing, you can also finance extremely interesting assets at close to double-digit returns or above double-digit returns. One example, data centers, there is probably a sweet spot on both sides of the Atlantic of financing a data center that has secured its power, secured building permit. But if you take the construction risk and the commercialization risk, you can probably finance at more than double-digit returns. And you get probably refinanced pretty quickly in case the construction goes well and the data center finds its client by a bank at an aggressive level. So it's a rather short duration, high return value proposition that we like a lot. Chris Sparenberg [00:30:09]: We've covered so much ground here talking about investment strategies, areas of conviction, your macro outlook. I'd like to take a moment and gaze forward into the future here and thinking especially about AI disruption. When we think about the rapid advancements in technology, and I think AI disruption is definitely one of those, how do you see that shaping the landscape for the investment areas where you're active? Is that a factor that reinforces the need for resilience and careful asset selection? Are there other things that you think about as you ponder what lays ahead? Thomas Friedberger [00:30:42]: Yeah, I think it's a perfect, I would say, mirror of what's going on at a wider stage because it touches both the topics of sovereignty, of high growth in a low growth world and, and also demography. And it's very linked to the electrification theme also. So let me say a word about that. First of all, if you look at the demographic projections, demography is extremely reliable, unlike economic forecasts. So the new UN projections post-COVID are that the peak population in the world will be reached in 2080, not in the year 2100 anymore,at around 10 billion people on this planet instead of 11 billion. But 70% of this world population will be living in cities, which means that between now and 2080, the peak, the urban population in the world will probably double. And the thing here is that cities need electricity. Thomas Friedberger [00:31:35]: They need electricity for transportation, for cooling, for heating, and forâ so AI users are mostly people living in cities. The use of data centers, I think it's pretty much like 25% short videos, social networks, 25% long videos, Netflix, 25% gaming, and 25% business. So those uses are mostly asked by people living in cities. So the trend is there. Now, if you look at, if we look at the massive CapEx need in AI, so we all know the numbers, $700 billion of CapEx probably in 2026, going to $1 trillion in 1 or 2 years. In order to justify those CapEx, the companies performing those CapEx probably need to generate around $2 trillion of revenues pretty quickly. And this is a massive number. This is, if I'm not wrong, twice the global advertising market. Thomas Friedberger [00:32:32]: So we are not there yet. And I think there are 3 scenarios there. One is those productivity gains are coming quickly. And in that perspective, the providers of AI solutions can have a massive pricing power and can increase their revenues quickly by increasing the price of their service. And in that case, probably valuations are justified. Or it doesn't happen and there is a problem. But the third thing is, which is probably a little bit mispriced by the market, is that it happens, but Chinese AI companies take a share of this pie. And there we don't really know what can go on. Thomas Friedberger [00:33:09]: But I think that this perspective, whatever happens, doesn't challenge the fact that AI is a massive growth trend. Probably linked to electrification as well, because again, in order to remain dominant in AI, the US will need to have access to cheap and abundant electricity. And so that's why at Tikehau, we have, maybe we have been a little bit more shy in investing in this, in high-tech companies taking technological risk and disruption risk at very expensive valuations. And we prefer to go the route of, I would say, more low-tech businesses linked to the sellers of picks and shovels, especially in electrification. I'll give you one or two examples. We acquired through our electrification fund a company in Germany, which is a leader in the design of data centers with a good expertise in the use of water and the use of energy. So it's fully feeling the assist of energy transition. But by buying this company at single-digit EBITDA multiple, we think that it's a nice way also to play the AI And same with a company involved in the maintenance, for example, of power cables, the same kind of valuation. Thomas Friedberger [00:34:20]: So this is a company that has participated in the construction of data centers in Europe. And so on the top of being a play, which is low-tech because it's, it has proof of concept, the technology of maintaining power cables is not very, is not very complicated. So the name of the game is to scale the business, internationalize it and reposition it so that they can benefit from this megatrend of AI. By doing that, we have probably a better risk reward than them going for the most expensive AI solution providers at 40, 50 times ARR. That's our take. We might be wrong, but we think that's a smarter way of playing the theme. Chris Sparenberg [00:34:59]: Really interesting for us to follow in the months and years ahead. Thomas Friedberger [00:35:03]: We see also many other investment opportunities in other areas, but I think that as a conclusion, I would say that again, in that kind of environment where you have a little bit less growth, a little bit more inflation, so challenging the, I would say, EBITDA growth of companies on both sides, revenues and costs, performing value investing or investing with a margin of safety is actually something which is possible. And it's possible, but it's possible only if you have a certain investment mindset, a certain level of alignment of interest as well with your LPs, a certain setup help of being local and having large platforms and a certain investment culture. But if you have that, you already have a lot of opportunities across asset classes of assets that are not that expensive and benefiting from this nice combination of minimizing the technological risk, the disruption risk you are taking because disruption is everywhere, enjoying high growth trends on reasonable valuations. So that would be my conclusion. It's an exciting world to invest And I think that even though there is a lot of uncertainty and, a lot of bad news in this world, globally speaking, on the investment side, there are very good things to do and actually things that finance the real economy as well. Chris Sparenberg [00:36:20]: Thank you for joining us for this episode of Private Markets 360. We were privileged to have Thomas Friedberger, Deputy CEO and Co-CIO of Tikehau Capital, sharing his profound, compelling vision of a market shifting from efficiency to resilience, demanding a new approach to private equity that acknowledges the long cycle of low growth and necessitates CapEx-led investment. Thomas also shared why Tikehau's low-leverage approach and focus on enablers of resilience matter, particularly across energy transition and aerospace and defense, and highlighted opportunities in credit and debt. He also outlined how PE is shifting toward more asset-heavy models. We hope you found this conversation as informative and engaging as we did. Be sure to subscribe to Private Markets 360 for more expert insights and the latest trends in private investments. Until next time! ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/blog/metals/102726-tight-copper-supply-ai-demand-dominate-lme-week-dialogue</link><description>The annual London Metal Exchange Week, held in London over Oct. 19-23, brought together leading stakeholders from the metals and mining industry â&amp;#x80;&amp;#x94; including company executives, government officials, traders and financiers â&amp;#x80;&amp;#x94; for high-level discussions on the outlook for global metals markets. </description><title>Tight copper supply, AI demand dominate LME Week dialogue</title><pubDate>29 October 2026 02:48:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Euan Sadden</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Metals &amp; Mining, Electric Power, Energy Transition, Non-Ferrous, Renewables, Ferrous October 29, 2026 Tight copper supply, AI demand dominate LME Week dialogue By Euan Sadden Editor: Alisdair Bowles Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... The annual London Metal Exchange Week, held in London over Oct. 19-23, brought together leading stakeholders from the metals and mining industry â including company executives, government officials, traders and financiers â for high-level discussions on the outlook for global metals markets. Delegates highlighted the risk of significant copper shortages during the 2030s, alongside a widening imbalance between mine supply and smelting capacity. Discussions also focused on the increasing fragmentation of global trade, as tariffs, export controls, carbon regulations and domestic-processing requirements reshape flows between regions. The following is a selection of the key themes discussed during the week. Looming copper deficits The mining sector is not developing copper supply quickly enough to meet projected demand from electrification, renewable energy, power grids, EV, defense and digital infrastructure. Vale Base Metals has warned of an annual copper deficit of 8-10 million metric tons between 2035 and 2040. Global mine supply is expected to decline by 2% this year, driven by operational disruptions, extreme weather, declining ore grades and project-execution challenges. Industry participants warn that these constraints could produce substantial annual copper deficits throughout the 2030s. The challenge is not simply securing capital. New mines can take many years to discover, permit, finance and construct, while the sector also requires supporting infrastructure, processing capacity and skilled personnel. Mine-to-smelter imbalance The challenge is not limited to a shortage of copper ore. Smelting capacity is expanding faster than new mines can be developed, intensifying competition for concentrate. Competition for scarce concentrate has driven spot treatment charges into negative territory. With the CIF China charge currently down around minus US$240 per metric ton, according to Platts assessments, Chinese smelters are incurring estimated losses of approximately US$140 per dry metric ton processed. Although negative margins would normally prompt production cuts, delegates heard that China's strategic interest in maintaining refined copper supplies could encourage smelters to continue operating, thereby prolonging the imbalance. AI build-out accelerates demand expectations Artificial intelligence infrastructure is creating a significant new source of copper demand, in addition to the metal's established use in power generation and transmission. Trafigura estimates that data centers could consume almost 1 million metric tons of copper this year. Their construction is also supporting demand for steel, aluminum and lead. The build-out could nevertheless be constrained by the availability of electricity. Trafigura has identified a potential 50-gigawatt gap between planned data-center requirements and available power by 2030. The trading company has also warned that a sharp slowdown in AI investment could simultaneously weaken copper demand, construction activity, economic growth and equity markets. The risk is particularly significant because Trafigura forecasts that copper demand outside the data-center sector will decline this year, leaving the near-term market unusually dependent on continued technology-sector spending. Fragmentation of the global metals trade Delegates also discussed the fragmentation of global metals trade into regional "fortresses." Tariffs, quotas, export controls, domestic-processing requirements and carbon regulations are replacing a relatively integrated global market with partially connected regional systems. The US reportedly attracted approximately 900,000 mt of refined copper amid tariff uncertainty, tightening availability in other markets. Meanwhile, US Section 232 steel tariffs and the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism are contributing to separate regional pricing structures. As a result, supplier selection is increasingly shaped not only by price, but also by emissions standards, political relationships and national security considerations. Critical minerals as a national security priority Critical minerals are increasingly viewed as a national security priority because they underpin energy systems, advanced technologies, defense equipment and industrial production. Delegates heard that governments are no longer focused solely on securing access to mines. They are also competing for refining capacity, processing facilities, scrap, inventories and reliable trade routes. Concentrated supply chains increase this strategic vulnerability. Indonesia dominates nickel production, while China has significant influence over copper mining investment and refining capacity. Disruptions, export controls, production quotas and trade restrictions can therefore affect prices, industrial output and technological development. In response, governments are pursuing domestic processing, strategic stockpiling, permitting reform, public financing and partnerships with resource-producing countries. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/102826-singapore-tightens-renewable-energy-rules-to-address-greenwashing-risks</link><description>Singapore has strengthened rules around renewable electricity claims and address greenwashing risks, while also launching new efforts to &amp;quot;harness solar energy wherever we can,&amp;quot; Minister of State for Trade and Industry Gan Siow Huang said Oct. 27. Speaking at the Asia Clean Energy Summit in Singapore, Gan said the revised Singapore Standard 673: Code of Practice for Renewable Energy Certificates,</description><title>Singapore tightens renewable energy rules to address greenwashing risks</title><pubDate>28 October 2026 11:31:25 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Rachel Tan</name><name>Ahmad afiq Muhammad zahir</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Electric Power, Energy Transition, Renewables, Emissions October 28, 2026 Singapore tightens renewable energy rules to address greenwashing risks By Rachel Tan and Ahmad afiq Muhammad zahir Editor: Anoop Menon Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Singapore updates standard to prevent greenwashing RECs must link to grid-delivered electricity Solar certificate prices surge amid new rules Singapore has strengthened rules around renewable electricity claims and address greenwashing risks, while also launching new efforts to "harness solar energy wherever we can," Minister of State for Trade and Industry Gan Siow Huang said Oct. 27. Speaking at the Asia Clean Energy Summit in Singapore, Gan said the revised Singapore Standard 673: Code of Practice for Renewable Energy Certificates, requires claims to be supported by certificates linked to power physically delivered to Singapore's grid, either through domestic generation or imports. RECs are environmental market instruments used to verify green electricity use and help companies meet sustainability targets. Gan said RECs from overseas renewable energy projects that do not supply electricity to Singapore can still be purchased to support renewable energy development and regional decarbonization efforts. However, they should not be used to support claims of renewable electricity use in Singapore. "The updated SS673 will strengthen trust in corporate sustainability reporting and reduce the risk of greenwashing concerns," she said. Separately, the Energy Market Authority said Oct. 27 that it had awarded S$14.9 million ($11 million) in grants to four industry projects aimed at strengthening grid resilience and maintaining reliable power supplies as energy sources and demand become more diverse. A generator had offered S$31/MWh for 2,000 MWh of vintage 2026 solar I-RECs, but suppliers were now withholding inventory as bids increased, a Singapore-based trader said. "Generators are no longer offering at S$31/MWh. The last level I heard was S$40/MWh," the trader said. During the Oct. 28 session, several offers were heard for vintage 2026 solar I-RECs at S$40/MWh from multiple market participants. Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, assessed back-half vintage 2025 solar I-RECs at S$18/MWh, up S$5 day over day, while vintage 2026 solar I-RECs were assessed at S$31/MWh, up S$2 from the previous session on Oct. 28. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/102826-uk-plans-to-expand-cbam-to-refined-products</link><description>The UK plans to expand the scope of its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to cover refined products, pending a freshly opened consultation, the government said Oct. 28. The government said last year it planned to consider the expansion. &amp;quot;Today, I can confirm that we intend to deliver that scope expansion, subject to consultation on both the feasibility and impacts of doing so,&amp;quot; James</description><title>UK plans to expand CBAM to refined products</title><pubDate>28 October 2026 19:39:58 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Matt Hoisch</name><name>Eklavya Gupte</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Refined Products, Metals &amp; Mining, Renewables, Hydrogen, Emissions, Carbon, Non-Ferrous, Ferrous, Gasoline, Diesel-Gasoil, Jet Fuel October 28, 2026 UK plans to expand CBAM to refined products By Matt Hoisch and Eklavya Gupte Editor: Valarie Jackson Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Government says move is subject to newly opened consultation Industry group seeks firm timeline for 2029 introduction Initial UK CBAM begins Jan. 1, 2027 The UK plans to expand the scope of its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to cover refined products, pending a freshly opened consultation, the government said Oct. 28. The government said last year it planned to consider the expansion. "Today, I can confirm that we intend to deliver that scope expansion, subject to consultation on both the feasibility and impacts of doing so," James Murray, Financial Secretary to the UK Treasury, said in a foreword to the consultation, released Oct. 28. "We are seeking views on the practical, technical, and economic considerations involved in bringing refinery products into scope," Murray said, adding, "We are asking how expansion can be done in a way that is credible, proportionate, and effective in addressing carbon leakage â and all while remaining clear-eyed about the impacts of any change." The consultation on including refined products in the UK's CBAM closes Jan. 20, 2027. The initial UK CBAM takes effect Jan. 1. Similar to the EU's CBAM, it aims to ensure that imports of certain carbon-intensive products face the same carbon costs as domestic producers to avert carbon leakage. From next year, the UK CBAM will apply to imports from the aluminum, cement, fertilizer, hydrogen, and iron and steel sectors. 'Breaking new ground' The Fuels Industry UK, an industry group, praised the move to expand the scope of the UK CBAM Oct. 28, while also urging greater clarity on implementation targets. "With carbon costs, which are not paid by importers, set to triple by 2030 and UK refineries already unable to compete on a level playing field with global competitors, the sector urgently needs the UK Government to set a firm timeline toward the introduction of a CBAM for the sector in 2029, which we believe is entirely feasible," said Fuels Industry UK CEO Elizabeth de Jong. Dan Maleski, director of CBAM and carbon pricing at consultancy EY, stressed the UK's move is "particularly interesting," because it has no international precedent. "No operational CBAM currently covers refinery products, so if the UK moves ahead, it would be breaking new ground in how carbon border measures are applied to fuels," Maleski said. "We're potentially talking about some of the world's most heavily traded commodities: petrol, diesel, jet fuel, and kerosene. That takes CBAM into a very different part of the economy and potentially much closer to businesses and consumers." Maleski added, however, that overcoming traceability challenges could be among the biggest hurdles for the expansion. "Fuels are routinely blended and commingled through hubs such as Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and Antwerp, making it much harder to trace an import back to a specific refinery and its actual emissions," he said. Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, assessed UK Allowances for December under the UK emissions trading system at Â£65.80/metric ton of CO2eOct. 28. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/102726-interview-am-green-eyes-more-deals-for-3-mil-mty-renewable-ammonia-goal</link><description>AM Green Ammonia (India) Pvt. Ltd. is seeking further global offtake deals as it advances a 3 million metric tons/year renewable ammonia production target, CEO Gautam Reddy told Platts, part of S&amp;amp;P Global Energy, following an agreement with JERA Co. Inc. announced Oct. 27. JERA and AM Green signed a binding heads of agreement under which the Japanese power generator will purchase about 70,000 mt/y</description><title>INTERVIEW: AM Green eyes more deals for 3 mil mt/y renewable ammonia goal</title><pubDate>27 October 2026 11:07:39 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Ruchira Singh</name><name>Takeo Kumagai</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Electric Power, Hydrogen, Emissions October 27, 2026 INTERVIEW: AM Green eyes more deals for 3 mil mt/y renewable ammonia goal By Ruchira Singh and Takeo Kumagai Editor: Sivassanggari Tamil selvam Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Renewable ammonia output target for 2031-32 Can meet marine fuel specifications under JERA deal Tuticorin, Kandla projects expected to advance AM Green Ammonia (India) Pvt. Ltd. is seeking further global offtake deals as it advances a 3 million metric tons/year renewable ammonia production target, CEO Gautam Reddy told Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, following an agreement with JERA Co. Inc. announced Oct. 27. JERA and AM Green signed a binding heads of agreement under which the Japanese power generator will purchase about 70,000 mt/y of renewable ammonia from AM Green's Kakinada facility in Andhra Pradesh, with commissioning planned for 2028-29. "AM Green intends to build a 3 million tonnes of green ammonia [production capacity] in our phase one by 2031-32," Reddy said. "... There's a whole pipeline of deals available to us that are in various stages of maturity." Reddy said the company was in ongoing discussions with prospective global buyers while advancing its other projects in India, including those at Tuticorin and Kandla, and was hopeful that more agreements would soon come to fruition. AM Green's website currently lists renewable ammonia projects of 2 million mt/y at Kakinada, 1 million mt/y at Tuticorin and 1.5 million mt/y at Kandla, alongside a 100,000 mt/y project at Una. The developer has secured significant deals with companies, including Uniper (500,000 mt/y renewable ammonia) and Yara, and was selected as the sole winner of the Asian lot in Germany's H2Global auction for renewable fuels of non-biological origin-compliant renewable ammonia, with a minimum value of â¬585 million, in September. Marine application Reddy said the deal with JERA was significant as it marked an early marine application for renewable ammonia, even as key fuel standards for the shipping sector remain under development. This is "quite an industry-setting kind of deal because we are meeting the maritime requirements where regulations are still not clear," he said, pointing to the International Maritime Organization's impending decarbonization framework. "Until now, contracts have been signed to meet transportation requirements in Europe or power cofiring in Japan, where regulations have already passed," Reddy said. However, "there are clients who want maritime decarbonization. There are clients who are willing to encourage it, pay for it." Seven Japanese companies comprising shipbuilders and owners, and a power generation company agreed to develop an ammonia fuel supply chain in the Chubu region and to build and operate four ammonia-fueled car carriers for the supply chain, the companies said in a joint statement Oct. 27. Geopolitical impact Reddy said AM Green's project was impacted as much as the industry's, owing to inflationary pressures and supply chain challenges amid geopolitical conflicts, but development and early trade were advancing nevertheless. "All those are things that affect everyone ... also, there is a huge demand for power in the Indian power market," Reddy said, highlighting the constraints the hydrogen developers were facing. "So obviously, our clients are realizing that, and we are positioning the price in an optimal zone where all these considerations are met, and it's a win-win for everyone," he added. The agreement marks one of AM Green's first delivered-basis supply contracts in the Asian market and a milestone for the company as it pioneers direct delivery of green fuels to Japan, JERA said in its statement. With the industry moving forward, "I would like to believe that clients are willing to pay a premium for a credible supply," Reddy said. Adapting to standards AM Green has offered to supply JERA with RFNBO-compliant renewable ammonia, despite uncertainty over the standards that will ultimately govern ammonia use in the maritime sector. "Those discussions are still underway. For example, EU maritime has one standard ... but we don't know what standard IMO will come up with," Reddy said. "Japan has its own standard." Meeting any eventual maritime standard was a requirement for JERA, he said, adding that AM Green had offered to meet the more stringent RFNBO requirements. "The comfort we are offering JERA is that whatever the IMO, [or] whatever the shipping standards will be, we will make sure we deliver to that," Reddy said. "JERA always wanted us to meet any eventual standard that gets released. So we have offered the RFNBO standard." Suitably positioned The location of AM Green's Kakinada project offers both geographical and infrastructure advantages, with the plant situated next to an existing port that has handled ammonia for about 25 years, Reddy said. The port's experience, expertise and existing clearances for ammonia handling were among the factors behind AM Green's choice of Kakinada, particularly as it seeks to begin deliveries quickly, he said. "Our renewables, our pumped hydro storage and ammonia plant are all in the same geo zone," he said. "So that also helps us meet the European requirements, which are very stringent." "All these things come together in why we have chosen Kakinada in the first place," Reddy said. "And it's showing, it's manifesting in the way the clients are trusting us." Platts assessed the India renewable hydrogen term contract at $3.22/kg on Oct. 22, up 0.94% month over month. Meanwhile, Platts assessed Northwest Europe renewable hydrogen at â¬6.70/kg ($7.47/kg) on Oct. 1, up 1.52% month over month. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/special-reports/india-forward/reimagining-growth/turning-resilience-into-momentum</link><description>Private investments, foreign direct investment and trade agreements will be&amp;#xd;&amp;#xa;among the engines of Indiaâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99;s next growth phase.</description><title>Turning resilience into momentum</title><pubDate>30 September 2026 12:44:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Dharmakirti Joshi</name><name>Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch</name></author><content><![CDATA[ 30 September 2026 Turning resilience into momentum Private investments, foreign direct investment and trade agreements will be among the engines of Indiaâs next growth phase. By Dharmakirti Joshi and Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch This is a thought leadership report issued by the S&amp;P Global Institute. This report does not constitute a rating action, neither was it discussed by a rating committee. Highlights Indiaâs economy grew 7.7% in 2025-26, significantly outperforming expectations despite high US tariffs and global uncertainties. Growth is expected to slow down to 7.0% in 2026-27. The ongoing Middle East conflict, elevated crude oil prices, weak global demand and the specter of below-normal monsoon rains are likely to weigh on growth and increase inflationary pressures. Monetary policy is expected to be cautious due to inflation risks. As global shocks become more frequent and geopolitical realignment tilts toward protectionism, it is time to activate medium-term growth drivers through economic reforms. India needs to realize the full potential of recent efforts to increase engagement with the rest of the world through trade agreements. India's economy has proven resilient post-pandemic, outperforming most major economies despite geopolitical disruptions. A public infrastructure push, rapid digital infrastructure build-out, targeted incentives for manufacturing, welfare schemes and economic reforms have contributed to India's standout performance. The Economic Survey 2025-26 consequently raised the country's growth potential to 7.0% from an earlier estimate of 6.5%. India faced among the highest tariffs imposed by the US in 2025-26, yet the economy grew by 7.7% â more than 100 basis points above policymaker and analyst predictions. India began fiscal year 2026-27 with strong macroeconomic fundamentals: a healthy growth-inflation mix, robust bank and corporate balance sheets, and a comfortable current account position. But as the economy is now more integrated into global trade and capital flows, it is less insulated from global shocks. India's GDP growth of 7.8% in the first quarter exceeded expectations, continuing a pattern seen over the past several quarters. High-frequency indicators such as industrial production, services activity, strong merchandise exports, and goods and services tax collections indicated healthy economic momentum in the first quarter. The growth outperformance underscores the strength of India's domestic drivers and its ability to navigate an increasingly uncertain global environment. Figure 1 details the factors behind India's outperformance in 2025-26, along with the reasons a slowdown is expected in the current fiscal year. Three buffers add to Indiaâs resilience: Foreign exchange reserves cover more than nine months of imports as of July 31. While we expect the current account deficit to rise to 1.5% of GDP in fiscal year 2026 from 0.6% in fiscal year 2025, it will remain within the comfort zone. Balance sheet strength of borrowers and lenders. Crisil's credit rating upgrades outnumber its downgrades, although the upgrade-to-downgrade ratio moderated to 1.50 times in the second half of fiscal year 2026 from 2.17 times in the first half. Banks' gross nonperforming assets are at a decade low of 1.8% at the end of fiscal year 2026. At 92.6 million tons, food grain stocks were at more than twice their buffer norms as of July 2026. Two factors are likely to weigh on growth in the current fiscal year Middle East conflict This ongoing conflict has followed a cycle of escalation and de-escalation. While periods of de-escalation have given many economies breathing room, heightened uncertainty, supply chain disruptions, high and volatile Brent crude oil prices, and elevated freight and insurance costs have become the norm. Crisil expects crude oil prices to range between $82 and $87 per barrel in the current fiscal year, compared with $70 per barrel in the last. Crisil expects crude oil prices to range between $82 and $87 per barrel in the current fiscal year, compared with $70 per barrel in the last. The burden of higher crude prices was initially borne by oil marketing companies. The government then absorbed part of the shock through excise duty relief, before some of the increase was passed to consumers through higher petrol and diesel prices. Higher crude oil prices lead to slower growth, higher inflation and a wider current account deficit (CAD). Subnormal monsoons Although rainfall exceeded the India Meteorological Department's (IMDâs) forecast in July, steadily intensifying El NiÃ±o conditions in the equatorial Pacific persist, leaving the possibility of a dry spell later in the season. As of end of August, cumulative monsoon rainfall was 14% below the long-period average. The IMD has also signaled below-normal rainfall in September, the last month of the four-month southwest monsoon season in India. India has strengthened its irrigation buffer, with net irrigated area increasing by 10 percentage points to 59% over the past decade. The country also has ample rice and wheat stocks to help keep prices in check. Even so, subpar rainfall creates downside risks for agricultural output and upside risks for food inflation. Indiaâs foreign capital flow conundrum Foreign capital inflows dried up amid an otherwise standout economic performance. Even a low CAD of 0.6% of GDP could not be financed through capital inflows in 2025-26, leading to a sharp depreciation of the rupee. Capital outflows amid strong macro fundamentals were a key wrinkle in the India story. Net foreign portfolio inflows declined 16.6% last fiscal year. Between April and July 2026, foreign portfolio investors sold off Indian equities for three consecutive months, returning as net buyers in July. Global cyclical factors played a role, and their impact has been amplified by a structural shift in global capital allocation toward AI and technology. <img src="https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/30022284/thumbnail" width="100%" alt="chart visualization" /> Gross foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows were healthy at $94.5 billion in 2025-26, but net inflows only reached $7.8 billion due to repatriation by foreign investors in India and outward investments by Indian companies. India is increasingly becoming a capital importer and exporter, reflecting greater corporate maturity but reducing the amount of net foreign capital available for domestic investment. Gross foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows were healthy at $94.5 billion in 2025-26, but net inflows only reached $7.8 billion due to repatriation by foreign investors in India and outward investments by Indian companies. We expect the CAD to increase to 1.5% of GDP in the current fiscal year. Financing is likely to be smoother due to an anticipated improvement in foreign capital flows and FDI. Recent Reserve Bank of India (RBI) measures aimed at attracting foreign capital appear to be yielding results, with cumulative inflows under these schemes exceeding $72.8 billion by Aug. 21. The schemeâs success prompted the RBI to close it one month early, by Aug. 31. On a calendar-year basis, gross FDI inflows increased 22.5% to $42.4 billion between January and May 2026, outpacing the 10% growth recorded over the equivalent period in 2025, itself higher than the global average. Improved capital flows should lend stability to the currency during the current fiscal year. Sustainable growth requires stronger private investment and higher FDI To realize the vision of Viksit Bharat by 2047, India must sustain an even faster growth trajectory, which requires a significant increase in the investment rate from the current level of about 32% of GDP. The World Bank estimates that 7.8% annual growth is required to achieve the objective. Enhanced role of private investments Public and household investment have been the key drivers of overall investment in India, while private corporate investment has grown more slowly, reducing its share of total investment. While public investment in infrastructure must continue, private investment has to take the lead. The private corporate sector's ability to invest, supported by healthy balance sheets and low leverage, does not match its willingness to invest. The nature of investment within the private corporate sector is also changing. Crisil estimates that the share of emerging sectors in overall industrial investment will rise to between 25% and 27% over the next five years, from 12% in the previous five years. These sectors include defense, data centers, solar photovoltaic, batteries, semiconductors and electronics, and electric vehicles. This shift is supported by the production linked incentive (PLI) scheme and growing market demand. Crisil estimates that the share of emerging sectors in overall industrial investment will rise to between 25% and 27% over the next five years, from 12% in the previous five years. Improvements in logistics, a stable business environment and reforms that make doing business easier, such as deregulation and stronger contract enforcement, will play an important role in improving the private investment climate. Why FDI needs a deeper push India has steadily liberalized its FDI regime, including opening the insurance sector to full foreign ownership. Yet, at about 2% of GDP, gross inflows remain modest relative to regional peers and the size of the economy and are below workers' remittance inflows. Global investment is increasingly concentrated in strategic sectors and geographies. UN Trade and Development estimates that AI infrastructure, semiconductors, critical minerals, energy-transition technologies and advanced manufacturing accounted for 44% of global greenfield FDI in 2025, up from 16% in 2020. India is benefiting from this trend, with Google's $14.5 billion AI and data center commitment marking the largest announced greenfield project in developing Asia in 2025. Yet India is in competition for a shrinking pool of global capital against economies with deeper manufacturing and supply chain ecosystems. The key question is whether India is securing a sufficiently large share of the investment that is shaping the next global investment cycle. Role of free trade agreements in supporting exports, manufacturing and FDI India is also rethinking its approach to free trade agreements (FTAs), which are increasingly being used to attract investment, deepen supply chain integration and strengthen Indiaâs position in strategic sectors, rather than as instruments for tariff reduction and market access. Recently signed FTAs and those nearing completion will improve market access and could be vehicles for foreign investment. Agreements such as the India-EFTA Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement and the India-New Zealand FTA place explicit emphasis on investment promotion and commitments. With six trade deals signed over the past four years, including one with the EU to be signed later this year, India will secure FTAs covering more than half of the world's top importing economies. Improved market access can boost exports, encourage domestic private investment in beneficiary sectors and attract additional FDI. Manufacturing exports will benefit from recently signed FTAs in a phased manner, with labor-intensive sectors such as garments, leather, gems and jewelry likely to be the earliest beneficiaries, according to Crisil Intelligence. Looking forward To achieve the Viksit Bharat 2047 vision, India must sustain higher growth through increased investment, with a greater role for the private sector and foreign direct investment. Recent FTAs could enhance exports, attract foreign investment, strengthen supply chain integration and, over time, improve India's position in strategic global industries. FTAs are not an end in themselves, and they must be complemented by efforts to improve India's competitiveness. Ongoing focus on infrastructure build-out, deregulation and increased spending on research and development will be critical to improving competitiveness, durably reviving private capital expenditure, and realizing the export and investment potential of recently signed agreements. ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/special-reports/india-forward/reimagining-growth/scaling-indias-e20-ambition-through-ecosystem-transformation</link><description>Is India&amp;apos;s fuel ecosystem ready for the next phase of the E20 journey? </description><title>Fueling options: Scaling India&amp;apos;s E20 ambition through ecosystem transformation</title><pubDate>30 September 2026 12:44:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Swati Mathur</name><name>Abhay Pratap Singh</name></author><content><![CDATA[ 30 September 2026 Fueling options: Scaling India's E20 ambition through ecosystem transformation Is India's fuel ecosystem ready for the next phase of the E20 journey? By Swati Mathur and Abhay Pratap Singh This is a thought leadership report issued by S&amp;P Global. This report does not constitute a rating action, neither was it discussed by a rating committee. Highlights India's ethanol-blending program has emerged as a key energy security initiative, generating foreign exchange savings of more than $25 billion since ethanol supply year 2014-15 while reducing exposure to imported crude and global oil-price volatility. The focus may now shift from mandate-driven expansion toward coordinated development of the transportation fleet and fueling infrastructure. Feedstock sustainability, climate-related supply risks and agricultural productivity constraints must be addressed to ensure reliable and scalable supply growth to meet future ethanol demand. Gasoline demand is expected to continue growing, but ethanol will remain an important transition fuel. Long-term ethanol adoption will depend on consumer confidence, vehicle readiness and overall value proposition, as seen in the US and Brazil. In the wake of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, India's E20 program has advanced from a fuel-blending mandate into a broader energy security option. Its sustainable implementation will be shaped by ecosystem readiness and sustainable feedstock supplies while keeping pace with increasing demand. India imports about 88% of its crude oil needs and significant shares of other energy fuels. More than just a blending component, ethanol has delivered $22 billion in farmer income, reduced COâ emissions by 95.2 million metric tons, decreased crude oil imports and provided foreign exchange savings of more than $25 billion between ethanol supply year 2014-15 and May 2026. Achieving higher ethanol adoption through E20, E85 or E100 will require more than policy intent. Ethanol's evolving role in India's multifuel ecosystem Increasingly viewed as a multipurpose energy molecule, ethanol is expected to serve gasoline blending, sustainable aviation fuel and clean cooking. As demand increases, supply sustainability will require a sharper focus on feedstock supplies, feed and food markets, and the commercial viability of second-generation ethanol from agricultural residues and biomass. More recently, ethanol's use in clean cooking has been explored, but because it has a lower energy density than LPG, it requires larger fuel volumes and a dedicated distribution infrastructure to deliver comparable performance. A multifuel strategy for transportation, including conventional fuel, biofuel and electric vehicles, gives rise to gasoline demand scenarios with slight variations in gasoline consumption growth. S&amp;P Global analyzes gasoline demand scenarios based on the varying rate of EV penetration, economic growth and technology diffusion with improved infrastructure. In the base-case scenario, gasoline demand in India's transport sector continues to rise into the 2040s as economic growth, rising household incomes and continued urbanization drive increased passenger vehicle ownership. Despite increasing adoption of EVs, the expansion of the light-duty vehicle fleet and relatively low car ownership per capita compared with developed economies support ongoing growth in gasoline consumption. As mobility demand rises and more households enter the middle class, gasoline remains a key transport fuel for much of the outlook period. As mobility demand rises and more households enter the middle class, gasoline remains a key transport fuel for much of the outlook period. In the base-case scenario, a consistent increase is expected in gasoline-based cars, even with increasing EV penetration. Securing sustainable ethanol supplies long term: Fuel and food to the fore Although India has diversified its ethanol feedstock mix, feedstock sustainability is still an area of concern. In 2023-24, the government accelerated its ethanol blending but experienced weather-related production shocks. Sugarcane output fell significantly, and ethanol production was supported by corn plus rice allocated by the Food Corporation of India. Grain-based ethanol production surpassed molasses-based output for the first time in ethanol supply year 2024-25. Grain-based ethanol economics, supported by higher corn-based ethanol prices and a higher minimum support price for corn, encouraged expansion in corn acreage. However, the surge in production led to corn sales below the minimum support price, leaving ethanol producers profitable while squeezing farmersâ margins. Diverting more corn to ethanol is tightening availability for the animal feed sector, raising concerns about feedstock allocation and market sustainability. While the shift toward grain has facilitated year-round ethanol production, challenges remain, such as lower farm productivity, weather-related shocks for sugarcane, corn and rice, and logistical and structural challenges for feedstock procurement. Diverting more corn to ethanol is tightening availability for the animal feed sector, raising concerns about feedstock allocation and market sustainability. The vulnerability of feedstock supply highlighted by recent drought conditions underscores the urgent need to enhance farm productivity. Although maize has been increasingly used in ethanol production, its current yields of 3.6 metric tons per hectare are below the global average of 5-6 metric tons per hectare. As India sets higher ethanol blending targets, feedstock sustainability is a greater challenge than production capacity, requiring a balanced approach to agricultural productivity, climate resilience and resource allocation. E20: From policy ambition to consumer adoption India's E20 journey is at a crossroads, divided between a policy-driven objective and a nationwide consumer reality. The next phase of growth will depend on balancing feedstock sustainability and consumer acceptance to ensure that E20 delivers energy security and environmental benefits at scale. Some challenges need to be addressed for consumer adoption of E20 and higher blends of ethanol into gasoline. Vehicle compatibility: This has caused uncertainty, with concerns about reduced mileage and damage to engine parts. Pure ethanol has a higher octane number (~108.5 RON) than pure gasoline (~84.4 RON), providing superior anti-knock characteristics and supporting the operation of higher-compression engines. However, ethanol has a 35% lower calorific value (~29.7 MJ/kg) compared with gasoline (~46.4 MJ/kg), resulting in lower energy content per unit of fuel. While ethanol can enhance combustion quality and engine efficiency, its lower energy density may reduce volumetric fuel economy unless engines are specifically optimized for higher ethanol blends. Per the E20 road map, new vehicles must be materially compliant by 2023 and fully E20 compliant by 2025. According to some auto industry sources, there is no evidence of engine damage in non-E20-certified vehicles. The reported reduction in vehicle mileage associated with the use of E20 blended fuel can be mitigated through E20 calibrated vehicles. Ethanol-blended fuel requires material compatibility and robust infrastructure because it is hygroscopic, which poses a risk of phase separation in the fuel tank. According to the Indian Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, E20 has been rolled out in consultation with the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, the Automotive Research Association of India and key automobile manufacturers after extensive testing. A greater understanding of engine readiness and performance, especially for higher blend rates, will be required if ethanol is adopted by consumers in a sustained way. Clarity in cost benefit to consumer: The Indian government has addressed the fuel economy of using E20 and conventional gasoline by insulating the domestic fuel market from global crude oil price volatility. However, the lack of transparency regarding the cost structure and cost benefit to consumers negatively impacts fuel acceptance. Consumer choice: While ethanol-blended fuel is a strategic lever for enhancing energy security and achieving environmental objectives, the absence of clear pricing signals, ambiguity around vehicle compatibility and limited fuel choice at retail outlets raise concerns among consumers, particularly owners of older vehicles and those wanting to optimize cost and performance. The complexity of India's fuel distribution network means that providing multiple fuel choices at retail pump stations is challenging and requires investment in logistics, storage and supply chain segregation. Brazil and the US: Global benchmarks for ethanol blending A comparison with Brazil and the US reinforces the need for a consumer-aligned energy security solution, rather than a policy-led initiative, for faster implementation of India's E20 program. US and Brazilian government incentives and subsidies were critical in establishing production capacity, infrastructure and consumer adoption during the industry's formative years. Today, ethanol pricing in both countries is primarily market-based, although policy support remains through blending mandates and regulatory frameworks rather than the direct subsidies that characterized the industry's early development. Corresponding infrastructure at pump stations and vehicle fleet compatibility have been aligned with the blending options. The US has largely normalized E10 as a key fuel, with higher blends such as E15 and E85 available mainly for compatible vehicles and supported by a mature corn ethanol supply chain and credit mechanisms. Brazil operates the world's most advanced consumer-driven ethanol fuel market, with extensive flex-fuel adoption and direct competition between ethanol and gasoline at the pump. Use of higher-ethanol blends is widespread, with high flex-fuel vehicle penetration, and Brazil provides consumer choice between gasoline-ethanol blends of E25/E32 and hydrous ethanol, with pricing signals reflecting competitive fuel prices. Based on past years, hydrous ethanol price levels must remain at 70% compared with gasoline C (gasoline blended with 30%-32% anhydrous ethanol) for its consumption to be competitive. Brazil operates the world's most advanced consumer-driven ethanol fuel market, with extensive flex-fuel adoption and direct competition between ethanol and gasoline at the pump. Looking forward: Ethanol as a flex-fuel option in India India has made significant progress toward E20 adoption, but the next phase requires onboarded customers and a robust ethanol ecosystem. While policy support has accelerated blending, for long-term market success, consumers must view ethanol as a compelling choice. Continued collaboration among fuel suppliers, automakers, policymakers and consumers will be essential to address technical considerations related to higher-ethanol blends and build confidence in ethanol-powered mobility. As India moves from policy ambition to large-scale implementation, the initiative must be supported by four key pillars: a transparent pricing mechanism to preserve consumer value; alignment of policy implementation and vehicle fleet transition for using higher ethanol blends and phased flex-fuel vehicle deployment; expansion of multifuel retail infrastructure to accommodate consumer choice and to support higher ethanol blends; and uniform distribution of E20 gas stations across India to ensure nationwide accessibility. Robust fuel quality standards and sustainable feedstock inputs into production units will be important for successful implementation. By balancing energy security objectives with consumer choice, and market readiness with infrastructure preparedness, India can create a self-sustaining ethanol ecosystem that supports decarbonization while transforming the agriculture, mobility and energy sectors. ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/special-reports/india-forward/reimagining-growth/indias-power-transition-renewable-scale-to-system-strength</link><description>By 2035, electricity will have to power a larger share of India&amp;apos;s growth, from factories and cities to cooling systems, mobility, data centers and green hydrogen. </description><title>India&amp;apos;s power transition: From renewable scale to system strength </title><pubDate>30 September 2026 12:45:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Ashish Singla</name><name>Mohd. Sahil Ali</name><name>Jessica Jin</name></author><content><![CDATA[ September 30 2026 India's power transition: From renewable scale to system strength By 2035, electricity will have to power a larger share of India's growth, from factories and cities to cooling systems, mobility, data centers and green hydrogen. By Ashish Singla, Mohd. Sahil Ali, and Jessica Jin This is a thought leadership report issued by the S&amp;P Global Institute. This report does not constitute a rating action, neither was it discussed by a rating committee. Highlights India's power transition to 2035 is shifting from capacity addition to resilience. Rising electricity demand will make power central to India's growth and energy security. Renewables will dominate incremental supply, but the real test will be whether clean electricity can be delivered reliably, affordably and at scale. The main bottlenecks will move from generation build-out to system integration. Transmission delays, rising curtailment risk, limited storage, inflexible thermal operations and underdeveloped flexibility markets could prevent India from fully absorbing renewable capacity. Clean-technology supply chain localization will become a strategic investment theme. India has made progress in the downstream ecosystem, but gaps remain upstream and in critical minerals. These vulnerabilities create opportunities. By 2035, India's localization gap across the renewable ecosystem could unlock significant investment potential. The next phase of India's energy transition will be shaped by climate ambition and the need for resilience in an increasingly uncertain world. The Strait of Hormuz is a reminder of how external energy risks can sharpen the case for self-reliance. The key challenge for the power sector is to build a system that can deliver clean, reliable and affordable electricity at scale. By 2035, electricity will have to power a larger share of India's growth, so the generation mix, grid architecture and clean-technology base are central to India's energy transition. Renewable energy will remain the main source of incremental capacity, but its value will depend on the system built around it. Reduced dependence on imported fuels must not create new dependencies on imported components and minerals. India's transition to 2035 should be viewed as both a decarbonization pathway and a power-sector resilience strategy. When growth turns electric India's energy growth story is becoming more electric, with electricity demand expected to grow much faster than energy demand between 2025 and 2035, at 5.56% and 2.47%, respectively. Electricity's share in the total energy basket could rise to nearly 25% by 2035, from about 19% in 2025. This shift is already visible â electric vehicles are reducing fossil fuel use, for example â but the transition is broader. Industrial processes will change through greater use of electricity and green hydrogen-linked production, while industrialization, rising incomes, appliance ownership and cooling will expand conventional electricity consumption. New demand sources will add another layer of complexity. Data centers and green hydrogen production will become increasingly important, with their combined electricity demand potentially rising nearly ninefold to about 240 terawatt-hours by 2035. These loads are important because of their scale and because they demand reliability. Demand will also be served differently. The grid will remain central, but a growing share of electricity demand is expected to be met closer to consumers through distributed generation. This share could increase to about 16% by 2035, from about 13% in 2025. This creates both opportunity and pressure. India's power system must prepare for higher electricity consumption and more unpredictable demand. Meeting this demand reliably will require a diversified supply mix, stronger transmission and distribution networks, storage, and flexible generation and market design that can support a more dynamic electricity system. India's power system must prepare for higher electricity consumption and more unpredictable demand. Renewable scale-up: From capacity addition to system readiness India achieved its 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution target of 50% cumulative installed capacity from non-fossil sources ahead of schedule; the 2035 target is 60%. But early progress on capacity targets also changes the nature of the challenge. It is now moving from clean capacity creation to ensuring supply mix, reliability, flexibility and procurement. Coal will remain central to India's electricity supply, but its dominance is expected to decline. Continued utility-scale solar additions through 2035 are expected to reduce coal's share, potentially toward 60%, from 70% in 2025, S&amp;P Global forecasts. Beyond baseload, coal is likely to evolve into a flexible resource that supports evening peaks and low-renewable periods. Renewable energy will meet the majority of incremental electricity demand through 2035. Utility-scale solar will remain the main engine of supply growth, supported by wind, hydro and storage-backed renewable projects. S&amp;P Global expects India to add about 300 gigawatts of solar photovoltaic capacity between 2026 and 2035, plus roughly 95 GW of storage. The next phase of supply growth must pair renewable capacity with flexibility. S&amp;P Global expects India to add about 300 gigawatts of solar photovoltaic capacity between 2026 and 2035, plus roughly 95 GW of storage. Deep decarbonization technologies such as small module reactors and carbon capture and storage-based coal will gain strategic importance, although their contribution to the generation mix will be minimal over the next five to 10 years. The source of renewables demand will be another important shift. Apart from distribution companies, commercial and industrial (C&amp;I) consumers are expected to become a dominant force behind renewable capacity additions. S&amp;P Global estimates that the share of C&amp;I will increase to about 30% by 2035, from nearly 19% in 2025, making it an important force in shaping India's renewable supply pipeline. India's changing supply mix creates both momentum and risk. The momentum is visible in the growth of renewables, storage-backed projects and C&amp;I procurement. The risk is that supply growth outpaces the systems built to support it. The real measure of the transition will therefore shift from capacity installed to electricity delivered, balanced, economically absorbed and securely supplied. Making clean power deliverable, flexible and secure India's renewable build-out now faces three linked tests. Spatial: Can the grid move power from resource-rich regions to demand centers fast enough? Operational: Can the system balance a rising share of variable solar and wind without rising curtailment? Strategic: Can India build the ecosystem needed to scale clean power without creating new import dependencies? Unblocking India's transmission grid: Turning bottlenecks into build-out India's transmission network has been a quiet enabler of the power transition, but the next phase of renewable growth will test whether the grid can remain ahead of generation. The country has built a relatively strong national transmission backbone, and total transformation capacity was about 1,486 gigavolt-amperes as of July 2026. However, recent delivery trends point to emerging execution risks, and substation capacity additions have slowed. In fiscal year 2024-25, about 77% of targeted additions were achieved, compared with previous rates above 90%. Despite an improvement in fiscal year 2025-26, additions are below the pace required for the next phase of renewable integration. This signals a widening gap between transmission planning and on-the-ground delivery. This matters because renewable projects can be built faster than transmission corridors. As solar and wind capacity grow in resource-rich states such as Rajasthan, Gujarat, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, evacuation infrastructure must be ready before projects are commissioned. Transmission lags result in congestion, commissioning delays, stranded capacity and higher curtailment risk. The Indian Ministry of New and Renewable Energy said that more than 6 terawatt-hours of solar generation was not delivered to the grid between April and June 2026 because of delays in transmission development. The issue is less about the absence of planning and more about the speed and adaptability of execution. India has planned transmission around renewable resource zones and solar parks, but project development is increasingly dispersed and market-driven. Grid development must be planned in such a way that interstate corridors, intrastate networks and last-mile evacuation capacity are aligned with where renewable capacity is being built. Curtailment is the warning light: India needs flexibility before solar outruns the system Solar photovoltaic technology has led to an increase in India's renewable capacity in recent years. Significant additions were made in 2024 and 2025, and capacity growth should remain elevated in 2026. But as renewable penetration rises, curtailment risk emerges. During 2025 and the first six months of 2026, India's grid experienced renewable curtailment of about 2,800 gigawatt-hours and 3,300 GWh, respectively, with solar accounting for more than 85%. Transmission bottlenecks explain about 10% of curtailment, according to an S&amp;P Global Energy assessment, with the other 90% attributed to grid-security concerns linked to system inflexibility. The system may have insufficient flexible demand, storage or dispatchable capacity that can ramp down during daylight hours when solar PV generation is high. A comparison of low- and high-curtailment days in April 2026 illustrates how insufficient flexible generation support led to higher curtailment for solar PV (peak curtailment of 22 GW on April 5, versus 1 GW on April 17). The solution is to increase system flexibility. Thermal plants must operate at lower minimum levels and improve ramping capability, with suitable compensation for cycling and flexibility services. Storage additions must accelerate, with battery energy storage systems playing a role in short-duration balancing and evening peak shifting, and pumped storage supporting longer-duration flexibility. Market design must also evolve to reward flexibility. From fuel security to technology security As India's power system becomes more renewable-heavy, energy security will increasingly depend on domestic availability and manufacturing depth. Solar modules, cells, wafers, batteries, inverters, power electronics and critical minerals will become as strategically important to the power system as coal logistics and gas supply were previously. Trade protection, domestic-content rules and manufacturing incentives are reducing this risk. Basic customs duties have raised the cost of imported solar cells and modules, while the approved list of models and manufacturers (ALMM) requirements has created demand for approved domestic supply, and production-linked incentives have supported local manufacturing. As India's power system becomes more renewable-heavy, energy security will increasingly depend on domestic availability and manufacturing depth. Solar PV shows both progress and vulnerability. Module capacity is no longer the main constraint; the deeper vulnerabilities lie upstream in cells, wafers, ingots and polysilicon. The implementation of ALMM List-II for solar cells from June 2026 has exposed the risk of policy mandates moving faster than the certified domestic supply. Cell capacity should improve, but wafers and upstream materials could become the next bottleneck if localization requirements are extended before domestic capacity is ready. Battery storage is a more difficult localization story. India's battery ecosystem is weighted toward downstream pack assembly, battery management systems and project integration, while commercial-scale cell manufacturing and upstream active-material production are at an early stage. The Advanced Chemistry Cell Production-linked Incentive scheme provides an important policy foundation to address this challenge, targeting 50 GWh of domestic advanced chemistry cell manufacturing capacity. Government support and private sector announcements suggest that capacity could scale rapidly. Although execution-dependent, some early estimates indicate that India's cell manufacturing capacity could rise to 140 GWh by 2030. However, most battery manufacturing plans in India are being driven by mobility demand, where scale, cost economics and policy support are stronger. The power sector, by contrast, is more price-sensitive and likely to retain a smaller share of total battery demand. Mobility may underwrite the economics of battery manufacturing, but the resulting scale can become the cost and supply foundation for stationary storage. Looking forward: From clean capacity to strategic power India's next energy security challenge will be to manage the supply chain, infrastructure and markets that make a renewable-heavy power system work, rather than access to fuels or exposure to maritime chokepoints. Solar and wind will scale, but the harder work will be in the layers around them. This also changes the investment story, and generation assets and the upstream ecosystem may offer the most attractive opportunities. A conservative estimate suggests that India's clean-technology supply chain localization could require between $40 billion and $50 billion of investment by 2035. A phased plan to prioritize critical components for indigenization is paramount. A clear supply chain security and diversification road map is needed for items that must be imported. ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/special-reports/look-forward/charting-progress-on-saudi-arabias-vision/future-of-renewable-energy-in-saudi-arabia</link><description>Saudi Arabia is accelerating its renewables build-out to reduce reliance oil-fired generation and position itself as a producer of clean technology and renewable hydrogen. </description><title>The future of renewable energy in Saudi Arabia</title><pubDate>26 October 2026 13:02:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Josefin Berg</name><name>Joe Steveni</name><name>Matthew Hodgkinson</name></author><content><![CDATA[ 26 October 2026 The future of renewable energy in Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia is accelerating its renewables build-out to reduce reliance on oil-fired generation and position itself as a producer of clean technology and renewable hydrogen. By Josefin Berg, Joe Steveni, and Matthew Hodgkinson This is a thought leadership report issued by the S&amp;P Global Institute. Highlights Saudi Arabia is accelerating the deployment of renewable energy resources to reduce reliance on oil-fired generation and under the guidance of Vision 2030. Over the past decade, Saudi Arabia has become a leading destination for renewable energy investors and technology providers as policy-driven tenders and abundant natural resources provide strong foundations. A focus on domestic job creation supports the countryâs advancement as a solar manufacturing hub. Beyond power generation, large-scale projects such as NEOM and the Yanbu Green Hydrogen Hub support Saudi Arabiaâs ambition to become a major global supplier of renewable hydrogen. Policyâled scale drives Saudi Arabiaâs emergence as a renewables powerhouse Saudi Arabia began expanding its renewable energy resources in 2019 with the completion of the 300-megawatt Sakaka solar farm. Since then, more than 10 GW of utility-scale solar PV have been connected to the grid, raising total power generation capacity to 110 GW, with current peak demand at 75 GW. While Saudi Arabia is often linked to rich oil and gas reserves, the rapid build-out of renewable resources has positioned the country as a leading destination for renewable power investors and technology providers. This expansion is best understood through the lens of Saudi Vision 2030, which has reshaped the countryâs strategy by prioritizing the reduced reliance on oil-fired generation via the fast-tracking of renewable power projects. Saudi Arabiaâs Renewable Energy Project Development Office has attracted international consortia to bid as developers through a series of tenders for clearly identified project sites, while the countryâs Public Investment Fund (PIF) has developed renewables projects with its portfolio companies: ACWA Power, Saudi Aramco and Badeel. This policy push has unlocked substantial investment, with the countryâs abundant flat land and high solar irradiance providing strong foundations. These projects are characterized by scale and efficiency, achieved through centralized and standardized specifications that streamline bidding and minimize permitting constraints. As a result, winning tender bids are consistently among the lowest globally â less than 2 cents per kilowatt-hour for solar and less than $80/kWh for battery energy storage systems (BESS). In other major markets, winning tender bids can be twice as high. Utility-scale solar PV projects dominate Saudi Arabiaâs renewable power build-out. As of September 2026, more than 50 GW of grid-connected solar PV projects had been built or were in planning stages, along with 9 GW of wind and 11 GW of BESS. Wind deployment has progressed more slowly, underlining the complexity of global wind energy supply chains. The 400-MW Dumat Al Jandal wind project was completed in 2022, and another 1.1 GW is set for completion in 2026. BESS project development started later than both solar and wind but has already resulted in more than 2 GW in operation. As of September 2026, more than 50 GW of grid-connected solar PV projects had been built or were in planning stages, along with 9 GW of wind and 11 GW of BESS. The continued deployment of all three renewable technologies contributes to the Vision 2030 goal of eliminating oil-fired power from the grid and positions Saudi Arabia as a pioneer in the global renewable energy landscape as it continues to attract firms with cutting-edge technology to its tenders. Localizing clean technology manufacturing reshapes global supply chain Growth in the domestic solar market and an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape have accelerated renewable energy manufacturing in Saudi Arabia, building on an already maturing and diversifying manufacturing sector. Vision 2030 pairs the rapid domestic deployment of renewable energy resources with a strategy to localize manufacturing and build industrial depth. Alongside fulfilling local content criteria, Saudi renewables manufacturing appeals to companies seeking to diversify their global supply chains. Stricter policies on supply and energy security are prompting large renewable equipment suppliers to prioritize locations that offer longâterm policy clarity and scale. Solar tracker suppliers, which have established over 40 GW of capacity, were the first to enter Saudi Arabia to support their projects in the domestic market and to export. Plans are underway to build a solar module supply chain across multiple nodes. Joint venture projects between JinkoSolar, PIF subsidiary Renewable Energy Localization Co. and Vision Industries to build 10 GW of solar modules and 10 GW of cell capacity would enable Saudi Arabia to manufacture its own modules by importing wafers. Saudi Arabia is spearheading efforts to localize solar and battery supply chains in the Middle East and position the region as a potential manufacturing hub, which could spur broader economic development and technological innovation across the Middle East. Saudi Arabia is spearheading efforts to localize solar and battery supply chains in the Middle East and position the region as a potential manufacturing hub, which could spur broader economic development and technological innovation across the Middle East. Leveraging renewable resources to become a major renewable hydrogen and derivatives exporter Saudi Arabia is one of more than 50 countries with a national hydrogen strategy. The renewable hydrogen production targets announced in 2020 aim for 1.2 million metric tons per year by 2030 and 4 million mt/y by 2035. Like most hydrogen targets, these ambitions face ongoing headwinds. Delays in implementing policy mechanisms among importers, including the EU, and uncertainty about demand mean that markets focused on exports are less likely to meet targets, as they will hold back investment in renewable hydrogen production unless offtake is secured. The structure of Saudi Arabiaâs renewable hydrogen project pipeline differs from other regions. There are fewer than 10 announced projects in Saudi Arabia, compared to over 900 in the EU. In Saudi Arabia, the focus is on constructing a few large-scale, export-focused projects instead of multiple small-scale projects seeking domestic offtake. Two renewable hydrogen projects under development in Saudi Arabia are the NEOM Green Hydrogen Project and Yanbu Green Hydrogen Hub, with 2.2 GW and 4 GW of capacity, respectively. The NEOM advanced renewable hydrogen project completed construction in August 2026 and is the largest of its kind. The Yanbu project is in the front-end engineering phase, with Danish technology company Topsoe being awarded an ammonia licensing contract in January 2026. Commercial operations for Yanbu are expected by 2030. Air Products and Chemicals Inc. was originally listed as the sole offtaker for NEOM, but finalized a deal with Yara International ASA in August 2026 to allow the latter to market and distribute any ammonia that Air Products cannot sell. In February 2026, ACWA Power announced a memorandum of understanding with Germany-based VNG AG and Verbundnetz Gas Agbo and EnBW Energie Baden-WÃ¼rttemberg AG to create a âgreen ammonia corridorâ from the Yanbu project to the Port of Rostock in Germany, where VNG would convert ammonia into green hydrogen for the German market. Projects including NEOM and Yanbu will enable Saudi Arabia to carve out an initial share of the traded market, with Saudi Arabiaâs position as one of the worldâs lowest-cost exporters expected to continue throughout the forecast. This agreement is the latest in a series aimed at developing the hydrogen supply chain between Saudi Arabia and Europe as importers seek to capitalize on Saudi Arabiaâs cost advantage. Optimized production cost estimates for renewable hydrogen and ammonia are $3/kilogram and $600/mt, respectively, which are about half the estimated production costs in Europe. S&amp;P Global Energy forecasts Saudi Arabia to hold a 5%-6% share of global hydrogen exports until 2050. Projects including NEOM and Yanbu will enable Saudi Arabia to carve out an initial share of the traded market, with Saudi Arabiaâs position as one of the worldâs lowest-cost exporters expected to continue throughout the forecast. Looking forward Having emerged as a major solar energy market, Saudi Arabia is entering the next growth phase. Investment is set to accelerate clean technology deployment and production, supported by policies under the Vision 2030 strategy. Geopolitical and global market uncertainties may slow parts of the industrial build-out, but Saudi Arabiaâs goal to become a clean technology hub is clear. The realization of this ambition will depend on factors including sustained renewables capacity additions and the countryâs continued effectiveness in supporting the diversification of solar supply chains. Beyond power, projects such as NEOM and Yanbu will be central to Saudi Arabiaâs expanding influence in the global hydrogen market. These advancements will not only shape Saudi Arabiaâs energy future, but its involvement in the global energy transition. The S&amp;P Global Institute The S&amp;P Global Institute is the center for enterprise-wide thought leadership that brings together expertise from across S&amp;P Global to provide insights on the trends reshaping markets, industries, and the global economy. Explore More ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/blog/energy-transition/102826-et-highlights-climate-un-us-midterm-election-india-carbon-advances</link><description>Energy transition highlights: Our editors and analysts bring you the biggest stories from the industry this week, from renewables to storage to carbon prices.</description><title>ET Highlights: Climate pathway after overshoot, US midterm elections, India&amp;apos;s carbon market</title><pubDate>27 October 2026 20:05:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Staff </name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Renewables, Emissions, Carbon October 28, 2026 ET Highlights: Climate pathway after overshoot, US midterm elections, India's carbon market Energy Transition Highlights: Our editors and analysts bring together the biggest stories in the industry this week, from renewables to storage to carbon prices. Top story UN report sets out pathway to return to 1.5 C warming by 2100 after overshoot The world must cut greenhouse gas emissions by 18% within four years to limit the worst effects of climate change, and return warming levels to 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels by 2100 after overshooting this century, the UN warned on Oct. 21, with the pace of reductions now required exceeding targets set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The UN Environment Programme's Emissions Gap Report 2026 finds that global temperatures are now certain to exceed 1.5 C and lays out what it would take to minimize the overshoot and return to that threshold by the end of the century. The report's findings come as energy markets face mounting pressure from climate policy and the accelerating buildout of renewable power capacity. "Overshoot is not surrender," UN Secretary-General AntÃ³nio Guterres said in a statement. "We can still keep it as small and as short as possible â and bring temperatures back below 1.5 C by the end of the century." Benchmark of the Week â¬86.45/mt Platts EU ETS carbon allowance assessment on Oct. 23, with prices rising steadily since March, as EU lawmakers and member states made progress on a market review. Explore Platts Energy Transition Price Assessments Editor's picks: Free and premium content SPGlobal.com/energy Democrats may gain platform but lack power to shift EV, fuels policy: analysts Democratic control of the US Congress after the November midterm elections would give the party a larger platform to promote electric vehicles and challenge President Donald Trump's energy policies, but it is unlikely to meaningfully accelerate US EV adoption or a broader fuel transition before the 2028 presidential election. Congressional Democrats could hold hearings, investigate administration decisions and argue that greater reliance on oil will become increasingly costly. But restoring federal EV incentives or reversing the rollback of vehicle-efficiency rules would require legislation acceptable to Trump or enough congressional support to override his veto, analysts said. Indian carbon market advances verification as first credit issuance nears India's carbon market is advancing by verifying greenhouse gas emissions from obligated industrial entities, with carbon credit issuance expected as the next step, according to two carbon verifiers and a policy expert. The Bureau of Energy Efficiency, which administers India's Carbon Credit Trading Scheme, published a list of 18 Accredited Carbon Verification Agencies impaneled under the scheme on Oct. 16. Government officials have indicated the National Carbon Market may open for trading carbon credits early 2027. INPEX, Sumitomo Osaka Cement test ship COâ capture technology INPEX Corp. and Sumitomo Osaka Cement Co. have begun demonstration testing of a calcium-based carbon capture system initially designed for large vessels, the companies said. The Ca-Looping technology, which the two Japanese companies have jointly researched since August 2023, converts COâ into calcium carbonate that can be transported under ambient temperature and pressure conditions -- a feature that could simplify logistics for captured carbon and reduce costs compared with high-pressure COâ transport systems. S&amp;P Global Energy Core INTERVIEW: SAF scale-up needs investor push, Dubai Airports CEO warns The head of Dubai Airports has warned that sustainable aviation fuel will remain a marginal energy source for the global aviation industry unless a major injection of capital into production infrastructure breaks a self-reinforcing cycle of high costs and weak demand. Dubai Airports CEO Paul Griffiths told Platts in an interview that SAF currently accounts for barely 1% of global jet fuel consumption â which runs at around 7 million to 8 million b/d â and that the economics of scaling up production remain deeply challenging for an airline industry operating on thin margins and already facing soaring oil prices amid the US-Israeli war with Iran. Woodside Energy to curb investment in Texas blue ammonia project Woodside Energy Group Ltd. intends to reduce investment in its newly built Beaumont New Ammonia plant in Texas despite ongoing plans to add carbon capture technology to the facility, which has a capacity of 1.1 million metric tons/year. Following a strategic review of the clean energy project, Woodside will initiate a formal process to reduce investment and achieve value for our shareholders, Woodside CEO Liz Westcott said. Qantas announces A$30M partnership for Australian carbon credit units Qantas announced an A$30 million partnership with Greening Australia and Conscious Investment Management to restore cleared land in South Australia, with the first project targeting nearly 800 hectares on Barngarla Country on the Eyre Peninsula, Hayley Alchin, Qantas executive manager for climate strategy, finance and reporting said at the Australasian Emissions Reduction Summit 2026 in Adelaide. The investment aims to generate native afforestation-based environmental planting ACCUs, Alchin said. ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/102826-india-to-boost-oil-output-expand-storage-diversify-crude-imports-to-shield-consumers-minister-puri</link><description>India will seek to strengthen its energy security by increasing domestic oil and gas production, expanding storage and diversifying import sources, as the country prepares for continued growth in energy demand and heightened risks to global supply chains, Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said Oct. 27. In addition, India&amp;apos;s growing energy needs will require a diversified, multi-pathway strategy</description><title>India to boost oil output, expand storage, diversify crude imports to shield consumers: Minister Puri</title><pubDate>28 October 2026 00:51:57 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Sambit Mohanty</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Natural Gas, Energy Transition, Agriculture, Electric Power, Refined Products, Crude Oil, NGLs, Renewables, Biofuels, Gasoline, LPG October 28, 2026 India to boost oil output, expand storage, diversify crude imports to shield consumers: Minister Puri By Sambit Mohanty Editor: Debiprasad Nayak Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Energy diplomacy to play a key role during turbulent times Multi-fuel strategy to help to ensure energy security India will seek to strengthen its energy security by increasing domestic oil and gas production, expanding storage and diversifying import sources, as the country prepares for continued growth in energy demand and heightened risks to global supply chains, Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said Oct. 27. In addition, India's growing energy needs will require a diversified, multi-pathway strategy that combines hydrocarbons, gas, renewables, biofuels, nuclear power, and emerging technologies rather than relying on any single fuel or technology. "By increasing domestic production, improving storage and diversifying imports, India will be able to protect Indian consumers from future price shocks that other parts of the world face," Puri told a conference in the western city of Goa. The minister said energy security now extends beyond securing physical supplies. It also requires countries to manage geopolitical conflicts, shipping chokepoints, volatile prices and sudden disruptions while keeping economies moving. He added that India had maintained steady energy imports during recent supply-chain disruptions, which he described as evidence of the success of the country's energy diplomacy. "India continues to expand its energy partnerships, reduce dependence on limited sources and safeguard its energy security," he said. The country had reduced its exposure to individual suppliers over the past decade by expanding the number of countries from which it sources crude oil to 41 from 27, Puri said. The country has also built 5.33 million metric tons of strategic petroleum reserves and increased refining capacity to 267 million mt per annum from 215 million mt, Puri said. Other measures include expanding the number of fuel outlets to more than 100,000 from about 52,000 and increasing LPG import terminals to 22 from 11. Domestic LPG production had also risen to about 55,000 mt/day from around 34,000 mt/day, he said. Energy diplomacy Puri said India's agreement in January to source 10% of its LPG requirements from the US had proved crucial during the recent global energy crisis. "We are further strengthening energy ties with Algeria, Canada, East Asian nations and Qatar to ensure reliable supplies," Puri said. The Middle East accounted for about 93% of India's LPG imports in January-October 2025, but that share has fallen to 56% in the same period this year. US supply has risen more than fourfold in the same period, from 1.2 million mt to over 5 million mt, taking its share from about 7% to 35%, according to S&amp;P Global Commodities at Sea data. "For LPG, the big change this year is that India has become much less dependent on a single supply region," said Charles Kim, associate director at CAS. "India's procurement strategy is increasingly about balancing economics with supply resilience. Middle Eastern barrels will remain competitive because of their proximity, but Indian buyers are putting more value on having alternative sources available when disruptions occur," he added. Upstream push The government is also seeking to raise domestic oil and gas output through initiatives, including the Samudra Manthan program, which Puri described as a major initiative to unlock India's offshore hydrocarbon potential. The initiative includes opening nearly 1 million sq. km of previously designated "No-Go" areas for exploration, potentially expanding opportunities for domestic exploration and production, he added. Puri said this would strengthen domestic exploration and production and help reduce India's dependence on imported hydrocarbons. Higher domestic output, combined with larger reserves and refining capacity, would give the country greater flexibility during periods of international disruption. The federal Cabinet approved investments of up to 840 billion Indian rupees ($8.8 billion) over five years in late July to advance offshore oil and gas exploration under Samudra Manthan, or the National Offshore Exploration Scheme. The initiative is expected to catalyze reserve accretion of more than 600 million metric tons of oil equivalent by fiscal year 2030-31 (April-March), the petroleum ministry said July 31. The government will fund up to 50% of eligible deepwater exploration drilling costs, capped at $71 million per well. By partially covering these costs, the scheme could significantly improve the economics of frontier exploration. Alternate fuels India was also using alternative fuels to reduce the pressure on its import bill. The expansion of E20 fuel, which blends 20% ethanol with gasoline, is providing additional income to farmers while helping reduce energy imports, Puri said. The GOBARdhan scheme similarly aims to convert agricultural residue and organic waste into compressed biogas. India will therefore need to balance affordability, supply security and sustainability across a broad energy mix. Its long-term objective is not to replace one dependency with another, but to build a diversified system capable of absorbing price and supply shocks while supporting economic growth, he said. "For a country of India's scale, success cannot mean choosing one fuel, one technology or one pathway. It means building an energy system that is secure, affordable, diversified and increasingly sustainable," Puri added. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/chemicals/092326-brazil-launches-digital-backbone-for-plastic-recycling-push</link><description>Brazil has begun a digital tracking system for its reverse logistics supply chain, almost one year after signing a landmark decree requiring half of all plastic packaging to be collected and recycled by 2040. The Ministry of Environment and Climate Change published an official announcement on Sept. 22 detailing the National Reverse Logistics System, known as Sisrev-BR, as an integrated module</description><title>Brazil launches digital backbone for plastic recycling push</title><pubDate>23 September 2026 18:55:29 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Talissa Gomes</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Chemicals, Energy Transition, Polymers, Renewables September 23, 2026 Brazil launches digital backbone for plastic recycling push By Talissa Gomes Editor: Richard Rubin Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Digital system tracks plastic reverse logistics Recyclers doubt manufacturers will comply willingly Distributors seek clarity on certification rules Brazil has begun a digital tracking system for its reverse logistics supply chain, almost one year after signing a landmark decree requiring half of all plastic packaging to be collected and recycled by 2040. The Ministry of Environment and Climate Change published an official announcement on Sept. 22 detailing the National Reverse Logistics System, known as Sisrev-BR, as an integrated module within the National Solid Waste Information Platform, Sinir. The system will centralize registration, results reporting, monitoring and traceability data for all reverse logistics operators, and access will be free of charge, according to the ministry. The move directly supports the Oct. 21, 2025, decree that committed Brazil to collecting and recycling 32% of all plastic packaging by 2026, rising incrementally to 50% by 2040, while simultaneously requiring that recycled content incorporated into new plastic packaging reach 22% in 2026 and 40% by 2040. The creation of Sisrev-BR comes directly in response to a widely acknowledged gap between Brazil's recycling ambitions and the tools available to enforce them â a frustration voiced repeatedly across the recycling supply chain. Under the Sisrev-BR rules, reverse logistics systems must be registered annually between Jan. 1 and May 31, with annual results reports submitted by July 30 covering the previous calendar year. Registration data must be updated every three years or before the submission of the annual results report, whichever comes first. Market participants say enforcement needed Market participants warn that without credible enforcement, major manufacturers are unlikely to change their behavior, a dynamic the new system seems to be designed to address, as its recorded data may be used in oversight activities according to the ministry. A recycler, speaking before the ordinance was published, said large manufacturers had shown little urgency in adapting to the new obligations. "The big factories couldn't care less about this. They'll only wake up once they start facing penalties," the recycler said, arguing that major industrial partnerships would only materialize once enforcement and penalties became real. That view is echoed further down the supply chain. A distributor said the market was grappling with the lack of a clear regulatory framework, with many different, sometimes conflicting, narratives circulating. The source said the distribution segment was actively trying to determine whether it needed to adapt to the plastic decree, raising specific questions about whether certification would be required and, if so, what type of certification would apply. The same source noted a strong trend of homologation of rPE and rPP by many players in the market, suggesting that demand-side preparation was underway while the regulatory framework was still being defined. A second distributor said interest in post-consumer recycled, or PCR, material in Brazil was strong but that substantial uncertainty remained around the plastic decree, particularly regarding how fines would be implemented. "Everyone wants to sell or buy PCR," the source said. The key questions would only be truly clarified once they had a direct financial impact on those involved, he added. r-PET market celebrates, foresee challenges The recycled PET market, which has been competing against imported and domestic virgin PET resin during a prolonged lull period, is among the sectors most closely watching the regulatory developments. Along with approval regarding the government initiative, market participants also expect challenges ahead. A bale seller said the system will be a tricky point for cooperatives, adding that the market "knows the difficulties associated with government systems; when they are introduced in environments where people aren't the most digitally savvy, things get complicated." The expectation extends to informal street waste collectors. "It's an even more difficult level â you can't even guarantee they have internet access, even less access to a system," one said. A bale buyer said that bottles may not be considered in the system, as "it's treated as raw material." The concern arises as informality remains a challenge for traceability, he added. Some collectors and small grinders transact without invoices, contributing to price distortions and raising questions about how bottle collection and informal scrap flows will be captured in the new digital system. On market fundamentals, Brazil's recycled PET market has faced tight post-consumer bottle supply after winter low seasonality, which has increased prices over the past couple of months, balanced by weak and subdued downstream demand. Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, last assessed post-consumer Clear Bottle Bales at 4.80 reais/kg DAP Sao Paulo on Sept. 22, above a bid heard at 4.50 reais/kg DAP SÃ£o Paulo, while r-PET Clear Flakes were assessed at 6.50 reais/kg DAP Sao Paulo, both stable on the day. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2026/10/doe-jump-starts-energy-grants-for-native-tribes-hit-by-1-5b-solar-funding-cut-107235440</link><description>Native tribes in 16 states were selected for grants to build small power plants and to conduct feasibility and planning for larger future projects. The awards signal a shift in the US Department of Energy&amp;apos;s tribal grant program, observers said.</description><title>DOE jump-starts energy grants for Native tribes hit by $1.5B solar funding cut</title><pubDate>23 October 2026 14:47:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Karin Rives</name></author><content><![CDATA[ 23 Oct, 2026 DOE jump-starts energy grants for Native tribes hit by $1.5B solar funding cut By Karin Rives Many remote Native villages in Alaska, above, have limited grid access and pay some of the highest power rates in the US. Source: Hossein Fatemi/AFP via Getty Images. After more than a year of a near-freeze on federal energy projects for Native tribes, Eddie Dellamary with the Tanana Chiefs Conference in Fairbanks, Alaska, got welcome news on Oct. 22. The US Department of Energy had just approved three power-related projects for which Dellamary, the Alaska Native nonprofit's rural energy manager, had sought funding. "I got the message really early morning Alaska time," Dellamary said in an interview later in the day. "It's really amazing news for us because federal funding opportunities have slowed down a lot. I'm ecstatic about it." The DOE on Oct. 22 announced $125 million in new funding for tribes across the US. The grants, ranging from less than $200,000 to $7.5 million, were mainly earmarked for smaller power projects or to conduct studies for longer-term investments. There were also two grants for "data center feasibility" studies for tribes in North Dakota and Oklahoma. The new DOE funding is less than one-tenth of the $1.5 billion slated for tribal solar energy installations that the Trump administration canceled in early 2025, along with billions more from other programs. Some of those cuts, which also extended to states and investment funds, are still being litigated. The Tanana Chiefs Conference itself saw $80 million for solar energy and water-sewage projects terminated, according to Dellamary. Still, the new grants announced by the DOE could signal a shift, he and other tribal officials said. In all, 63 projects led by 61 tribes in 16 states were told their grants had been approved for final negotiations with the DOE. It was the agency's Office of Indian Energy Policy and Program's largest award so far and represents "a new and expanded role" for the office, the agency said. "For the first time, we're supporting projects at any phase of development and with a broad set of technologies and approaches," the office's director, Eric Mahroum, said in a statement. "Our goal is to support tribes to advance high-value energy projects, including large-scale projects like generation, transmission, distribution and critical mineral projects." Broad range of projects The Tanana Chiefs Conference was selected for a $1.1 million grant to conduct a transmission feasibility study for a future project in the interior section of Alaska and a $2.5 million grant for hydrothermal exploration in the Fairbanks area. The nonprofit also helped to secure a $6.5 million grant to build a new diesel oil-fueled power plant in the remote Chalkyitsik Village, which relies on a self-contained local grid. Under the Trump administration, the DOE has signaled that fossil-fuel-based grant proposals may be favored over clean energy projects, but that it also supports certain renewable projects that enjoy bipartisan support, grant recipients noted. The Alutiiq Tribe of Old Harbor, also in Alaska, was selected for nearly $4.4 million toward construction of a 2.9-megawatt hydroelectric plant expected to be built in 2028. The plant will replace 95% of the diesel generation the village uses today for electricity, according to Lianna Peterson, the village administrator. "We are so pleased that it was selected for funding!" Peterson said in an email. The Navajo Nation, the largest Native American tribe, was selected for a $7.5 million grant that will connect about 200 families to the electric grid for the first time, according to Srinivasa Venigalla, deputy general manager of the Navajo Tribal Utility Authority. The broad range of energy projects on the DOE's list is critical for tribes that are looking to develop energy from locally available resources, said Anna Maria Ortiz, natural resources and environment director for the US Government Accountability Office. The grants focused on planning and feasibility serve a similar purpose, she said. "Planning is a critical gap that we identified," Ortiz said in an interview. "It's the first of many steps needed to be taken before a project can be done." Ortiz's office released a report in mid-2025 calling on the DOE to reduce funding barriers for Native tribes. The new grants are supported by federal funding through fiscal year 2026 and from earlier congressional appropriations, the DOE said. Premium Content Log in to the Capital IQ Pro platform to continue exploring Exclusive content like the article above is available to our subscribers on S&amp;P Capital IQ Pro. Not a subscriber? Let's connect to discuss how Capital IQ Pro can fit into your organization's workflow. Log in to Capital IQ Pro Connect with an expert ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/podcasts/energy-evolution/102726-sodium-ions-moment-peak-energy-on-scaling-a-lithium-alternative</link><description>Lithium-ion batteries accounted for about 94% of global energy storage capacity additions in 2025. Sodium-ion made up about 0.4%. Landon Mossburg, CEO and co-founder of Peak Energy, thinks the industry underestimates how fast that could change. In this episode of Energy Evolution, senior reporter Garrett Hering shares a fireside chat from the American Clean Power Association&amp;apos;s RECHARGE: Energy</description><title>Sodium-ion&amp;apos;s moment? Peak Energy on scaling a lithium alternative</title><pubDate>27 October 2026 11:06:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Garrett Hering</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Metals &amp; Mining, Energy Transition, Electric Power, Non-Ferrous, Renewables October 27, 2026 Sodium-ion's moment? Peak Energy on scaling a lithium alternative Featuring Garrett Hering HIGHLIGHTS Peak Energy bets on sodium-ion batteries Technology offers safety, permitting benefits China invests heavily in battery supply chain Lithium-ion batteries accounted for about 94% of global energy storage capacity additions in 2025. Sodium-ion made up about 0.4%. Landon Mossburg, CEO and co-founder of Peak Energy, thinks the industry underestimates how fast that could change. In this episode of Energy Evolution, senior reporter Garrett Hering shares a fireside chat from the American Clean Power Association's RECHARGE: Energy Storage Conference, held Sept. 23 in Aurora, Colorado. Mossburg told Hering why Peak Energy is betting on passively cooled sodium-ion systems, arguing they bring safety and permitting advantages, longer life and a strong fit for data centers. He also discusses the company's path to bankability ahead of the opening of a new factory and what is at stake for the US battery supply chain as China invests heavily in the technology. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/coal/102626-turkeys-jan-aug-thermal-coal-imports-hit-four-year-low-amid-record-hydro-output</link><description>Turkey&amp;apos;s thermal coal imports fell to their lowest January-August level since 2022, as record hydropower output curtailed coal-fired generation, while supply disruptions and weak plant economics also weighed on shipments, even as the fuel retained a competitive edge over gas-fired generation amid ongoing geopolitical turmoil. Total thermal coal imports in the January-August period stood at 19.9</description><title>Turkey&amp;apos;s Jan-Aug thermal coal imports hit four-year low amid record hydro output</title><pubDate>26 October 2026 15:57:14 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Vaibhav Chakraborty</name><name>Hardik Verma</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Coal, LNG, Natural Gas, Electric Power, Renewables, Thermal Coal October 26, 2026 Turkey's Jan-Aug thermal coal imports hit four-year low amid record hydro output By Vaibhav Chakraborty and Hardik Verma Editor: Bill Montgomery Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Imports fall 18.77% on year to 19.9 million mt in Jan-Aug Record hydro pushes renewables above 60% of total power output Coal-fired generation recovers in Jul-Aug as hydro eases Turkey's thermal coal imports fell to their lowest January-August level since 2022, as record hydropower output curtailed coal-fired generation, while supply disruptions and weak plant economics also weighed on shipments, even as the fuel retained a competitive edge over gas-fired generation amid ongoing geopolitical turmoil. Total thermal coal imports in the January-August period stood at 19.9 million metric tons, down 18.77% from the year-ago period and the lowest level since 2022, when Turkey imported 17 million mt in the first eight months of 2026, according to Turkish Statistical Institute data. "The fall in Turkey's thermal coal imports is pretty much due to the better-performing hydro generation," a UAE-based trader said. The drop in import volumes reflected weaker thermal coal power output during the period, as generation from renewables soared to a multiyear high, driven primarily by record hydrogeneration following a subdued 2025 output due to droughts in parts of the country. Coal generation from imported steam coal and domestic hard coal fell below 2 terawatt-hours in May 2026, its lowest monthly level since April 2013. The decline has been driven by flat coal-fired power demand, a steep increase in hydropower generation â which reached its highest January-August level on record â and a rise in wind generation, up 12% year over year, aided by 1.8 GW of additional capacity added year over year in July, Sylvain Dauphin-Cognet, executive director and head of EMEA Power and Renewables Research at S&amp;P Global CERA, said. Power generation through hard coal, lignite and imported coal declined to 67.2 TWh in January-August from 77.9 TWh in the year-ago period, while output from renewables surged above 60% of total power generation in Turkey during the same period, up from 47.2% in the first eight months of 2025, according to Turkish Electricity Transmission Corp. data. "The real problem is that hydro had been running so high that the need for electricity from imported coal decreased a lot," a Turkey-based buyer said. Hydrogeneration dents coal's prospects After falling to its lowest levels since 2023 in January-August 2025 due to low water levels, hydrogeneration output averaged 9.39 TWh over the eight-month period and emerged as the largest source of power generation in Turkey. In January-August, hydro power contributed 75.16 TWh out of the 248.43 TWh total, while coal generation dropped to 67.22 TWh, even as geopolitical headwinds tightened LNG and natural gas supply, pushing for higher coal consumption across much of the world, market participants said. "There was too much rain and hydro production this winter, so coal was not competitive," another UAE-based trader said. In June, a Turkey-based trader noted that power prices in Turkey were low due to strong renewables output, making it uneconomical for power plants to burn coal. This prompted some operators to run at lower capacity, further weakening seaborne thermal coal demand. Though Europe's coal capacity has dropped considerably in recent years due to the phasing out of coal plants, the region's appetite for thermal power has remained firm since the Middle East war broke out. Turkey's coal-fired power plant operators, however, were unable to benefit from gas falling behind in the merit order. "In Europe, the main driver for the year-on-year decline in coal imports is the drop in Turkey, where we expect a fall of 8 million mt, down to 30 million mt, owing to weaker coal demand for power generation," the International Energy Agency said in its midyear coal update. In the January-August period, the weakness in Turkish demand capped gains in the prices of Russian thermal coal delivered to the Mediterranean, Middle East and North Africa markets â Turkey being the primary consumer of high-calorific value Russian material in the region â despite prices across the board rising sharply due to tensions in the Middle East. Non-Russian-origin coal delivered to the Mediterranean and MENA region moved to a greater extent than its Russian counterpart. Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, assessed CIF Med 45,000 mt 6,000 kcal/kg NAR Russian-origin coal at an average of $98.75/mt in January-August, compared with $85.85/mt in the year-ago period. The Platts-assessed CIF Med 75,000 mt 6,000 kcal/kg NAR non-Russian-origin coal averaged $112.15/mt in the same period of 2026, up from $91.45/mt in January-August 2025. Signs of higher consumption While coal imports appeared on course for their lowest volume since 2022, signs emerged that consumption could rise in the near term, as coal-fired power generation increased in July and August, market participants said. The Turkey-based trader noted that while the focus on renewable energy continues to expand, generation from the sector remained highly volatile, reinforcing coal's role in power generation needs. "There is solar and wind, but those do not have the highest industrial output," the trader said. Generation from thermal coal and lignite exceeded 10 TWh on a monthly basis in July and August, while hydro output fell below the 10 TWh mark for the first time since February. Market participants expected the trend to continue as winter approached, with gas-fired power generation remaining well behind coal amid the steep rise in gas prices this year. However, concerns lingered over the recent rally in coal prices rendering the fuel uncompetitive. "I guess any coal price above $140-$145/mt CIF range would fall into the no-profit zone; this number can be a bit lower or higher for individual plants depending on efficiency, location, dispatch port conditions, etc.," the Turkey-based trader said. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/electric-power/102226-factbox-us-midterms-to-shape-energy-policy-oversight-and-investment-outlook</link><description>The US midterm elections on Nov. 3 will determine control of Congress and could reshape the federal policy outlook for energy producers, utilities and project developers during the final two years of President Donald Trump&amp;apos;s term. A continued Republican majority would give the administration more room to pursue expanded domestic production, faster permitting and environmental deregulation, though</description><title>FACTBOX: US midterms to shape energy policy, oversight and investment outlook</title><pubDate>22 October 2026 15:44:44 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Staff </name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Metals &amp; Mining, Electric Power, Natural Gas, LNG, Crude Oil, Renewables, Emissions October 22, 2026 FACTBOX: US midterms to shape energy policy, oversight and investment outlook By Staff Editor: Gary Gentile Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Republicans push fossil fuel expansion Democrats eye energy oversight probes The US midterm elections on Nov. 3 will determine control of Congress and could reshape the federal policy outlook for energy producers, utilities and project developers during the final two years of President Donald Trump's term. A continued Republican majority would give the administration more room to pursue expanded domestic production, faster permitting and environmental deregulation, though narrow margins could limit major legislation. Democratic control of either chamber would bring tougher oversight of agency decisions, project approvals and federal spending while increasing leverage over appropriations and, in the Senate, cabinet and court nominees. Either outcome could affect the durability of permits, tax incentives and other policies underpinning long-term energy investments. The following is a snapshot of potential impacts and vulnerabilities across commodities under both congressional scenarios on the ballot: Republicans maintain full control of Congress, or Democrats reclaim at least one chamber. Power markets and utilities Republican scenario: Republicans could support continued rollbacks of US Department of Energy energy-efficiency standards and Environmental Protection Agency regulations on power plant greenhouse gas emissions. They could also use budget reconciliation to advance tax and spending measures favoring fossil fuel generation and grid expansion, including requirements that large loads pay their share of related costs. Democratic scenario: Democrats could challenge or investigate agency actions that impede renewable energy resources or weaken GHG regulations. They could effectively block Republicans from using budget reconciliation to advance power-market priorities. Scrutiny of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission could increase as the term of Commissioner David Rosner, a Democrat who has drawn Republican support, expires in June 2027. Offshore wind and renewable energy Republican: The administration would have more room to continue its offshore wind policies, delay permits for wind and solar projects and resist efforts to restore clean energy programs. Democrat: An investigation into the US Department of the Interior's multibillion-dollar buyout of offshore wind leases is a near certainty. Democrats assert the refunded lease payments are illegal and violate congressional intent. Representative Jared Huffman of California could lead that effort as House Natural Resources Committee chairman, while Senate Democrats, including Chuck Schumer of New York and Martin Heinrich of New Mexico, have opened a parallel probe. Heinrich has also introduced legislation that would penalize improper delays or blocks on clean energy projects. Nuclear energy and fusion Republican: The Trump administration would face fewer obstacles in pursuing its nuclear energy agenda, including its civil nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia. Bipartisan support for fusion commercialization could leave room for action on the American Fusion Leadership Act, a $10 billion proposal to accelerate the technology's development. Democrat: Lawmakers are likely to demand stricter oversight of the Trump administration's nuclear policies. A Democratic Senate could complicate the civil nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia, which has drawn proliferation concerns and was submitted for a 90-day congressional review in late August. The American Fusion Leadership Act could advance as part of a broader effort to revive clean energy programs and investment. Cybersecurity Republican: Bipartisan utility cybersecurity measures could continue to advance. The Quantum-GUARD Act, led by Republican Senator Mike Rounds of South Dakota, would codify parts of Trump's June 22 executive order addressing quantum-computing threats to utility encryption and help electric utilities adopt post-quantum cryptography standards developed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology in 2024. Democrat: Cybersecurity is still likely to remain a bipartisan priority. Divided government, particularly a Democratic House and Republican Senate, could preserve momentum for legislation addressing quantum-computing threats to utility systems. Natural gas and LNG Republican: Prospects could improve for a bipartisan permitting reform package that natural gas industry participants view as the best opportunity in years to overhaul federal project reviews. The Trump administration would also retain broad latitude to ease LNG permitting and promote US LNG in trade negotiations. Republicans could also continue to try to enact a national prohibition on state and local gas bans. Democrat: This could complicate permitting reform and intensify oversight of the gas and LNG sectors. Charlie Riedl, executive director of the Center for LNG, said a Democratic House would have to decide whether to advance legislation that could hand the Trump administration a policy win. With committee and subpoena power, Democrats could expand investigations into industry profits, energy prices, campaign finance ties and gas projects championed by the Trump administration, while blocking a federal prohibition on gas bans. Oil Republican: The Trump administration would have more room to continue expanding federal oil and gas leasing, including in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska and the environmentally sensitive, less-developed Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Continued Republican control could also support the administration's deregulatory priorities, while a bipartisan permitting bill could provide near-term benefits for fossil fuel projects through changes to the National Environmental Policy Act. Democrat: There are few direct tools to reverse the administration's leasing expansion, but there would likely be a wave of investigations into the oil industry's dealings with the White House. Democrats have already said they would examine energy companies' communications with the administration and whether Trump donors received preferential treatment in leasing. Increased investigations and policy proposals could divert agency resources from deregulation. If Democrats win both chambers, control of appropriations could give them greater leverage to force policy compromises, including potential limits on military spending related to the Iran war. Gridlock between the White House and Congress could also prompt the administration to rely more heavily on foreign policy and geopolitics, which could increase oil prices and spur more oil production. Metals and mining Republican: The Trump administration's minerals strategy, including its growing use of government equity stakes in mining companies, critical minerals agreements, federal incentives and faster permitting for mining projects, would continue to advance. Republicans have broadly supported critical minerals partnerships, although some lawmakers have argued that Congress should play a more active role in shaping and evaluating minerals agreements. Democrat: Lawmakers are prepared to intensify scrutiny of government investments in mining companies and critical minerals agreements. Hearings, document requests and subpoena power would be used to examine potential conflicts of interest, the legal basis and transparency of transactions, and whether taxpayer funds were adequately protected. Democrats have already questioned administration officials and mining companies about the financial terms of federal equity and financing deals. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/credit-conditions-european-auto-suppliers-credit-outlook-defies-the-odds-s101711097</link><description>This report does not constitute a rating action. S&amp;amp;P Global Ratings&amp;apos; outlook bias on European auto suppliers is positive despite challenging market conditions. We now have positive outlooks on four of the largest European auto suppliers, Forvia S.E. (BB-/Positive/--), Valeo S.E. (BB/Positive/B), Mahle GmbH (BB-/Positive/--), and ZF Friedrichshafen AG (ZF; BB-/Positive/--), following rating actions earlier this year (see chart 1). We expect that the companies&amp;apos; profitability and cash conversion wi</description><title>Credit Conditions: European Auto Suppliers&amp;apos; Credit Outlook Defies The Odds</title><pubDate>21 October 2026 15:07:50 GMT</pubDate></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/electric-power/020326-infographic-europes-renewable-ppa-volumes-set-to-rebound-as-prices-adjust-to-market-realities</link><description>Signs of saturation in European PPA markets became clear in 2025, as contracted volumes fell to a six-year low, while average market prices remained significantly below the minimum required to offset project costs for new renewable assets, so-called PPA breakeven estimates. S&amp;amp;P Global Energy data indicates that the gap between the prices needed to get a project financed and buyers&amp;apos; payment</description><title>INFOGRAPHIC: Europe&amp;apos;s renewable PPA volumes set to rebound as prices adjust to market realities</title><pubDate>03 February 2026 14:46:47 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Gabriel Lorca Aicardi</name><name>Andreas Franke</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Electric Power, Energy Transition, Renewables February 03, 2026 INFOGRAPHIC: Europe's renewable PPA volumes set to rebound as prices adjust to market realities By Gabriel Lorca Aicardi and Andreas Franke Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Renewable PPA volumes in Europe rebound as prices adjust Gap between PPA prices, project costs narrows Market reforms, industry support boost PPA activity Signs of saturation in European PPA markets became clear in 2025, as contracted volumes fell to a six-year low, while average market prices remained significantly below the minimum required to offset project costs for new renewable assets, so-called PPA breakeven estimates. S&amp;P Global Energy data indicates that the gap between the prices needed to get a project financed and buyers' payment willingness is shrinking again. However, market design reforms, support packages for energy-intensive industries, the return of gas price risk and the rollout of batteries could support PPA activity. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > Editor: Karla Sanchez ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/031326-infographic-india-boosts-renewable-capacity-even-as-grid-market-challenges-persist</link><description>India is one of the world&amp;apos;s fastest-growing renewable energy markets, driven by policy support, abundant capital availability and rapidly rising electricity demand. Clean energy installed capacity, which achieved record-high additions in the country in 2025, is expected to increase further by 2030, with growth momentum anticipated to continue despite some challenges. Grid bottlenecks, curtailment</description><title>INFOGRAPHIC: India boosts renewable capacity even as grid, market challenges persist</title><pubDate>13 March 2026 14:14:30 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Ruchira Singh</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Electric Power, Energy Transition, Renewables March 13, 2026 INFOGRAPHIC: India boosts renewable capacity even as grid, market challenges persist By Ruchira Singh Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Record-high clean energy additions in 2025 Favourable policies, investments support growth Renewables plus battery costs are seen declining India is one of the world's fastest-growing renewable energy markets, driven by policy support, abundant capital availability and rapidly rising electricity demand. Clean energy installed capacity, which achieved record-high additions in the country in 2025, is expected to increase further by 2030, with growth momentum anticipated to continue despite some challenges. Grid bottlenecks, curtailment risks and delayed power sale agreements are among the hurdles hindering the accelerated buildout needed to boost the share of renewable electricity in the grid. Analysts project hybrid renewable energy projects, combining solar and wind power with battery storage, to become increasingly common as a solution to intermittency, with costs expected to decline over time. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > Editor: Ankit Ajmera ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/031626-infographic-middle-east-fertilizer-shock-tightens-spring-nutrient-supply</link><description>The outbreak of conflict in the Middle East on Feb. 28 has rapidly driven up global fertilizer prices, with the region&amp;apos;s role as a major exporter amplifying market volatility. Granular urea prices have surged 38.8% during the critical spring application season â&amp;#x80;&amp;#x94; from below $500/mt in late February to $680/mt by March 13. Ammonia logistics have also been strained, as vessel delays and halted</description><title>INFOGRAPHIC: Middle East fertilizer shock tightens spring nutrient supply</title><pubDate>16 March 2026 08:18:39 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Jeffrey McDonald</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Fertilizers, Chemicals, Energy Transition, Renewables March 16, 2026 INFOGRAPHIC: Middle East fertilizer shock tightens spring nutrient supply By Jeffrey McDonald Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Urea prices surge 38.8% to $680/mt Strait disrupts 24% of ammonia exports Sulfur costs jump $200/mt amid conflict The outbreak of conflict in the Middle East on Feb. 28 has rapidly driven up global fertilizer prices, with the region's role as a major exporter amplifying market volatility. Granular urea prices have surged 38.8% during the critical spring application season â from below $500/mt in late February to $680/mt by March 13. Ammonia logistics have also been strained, as vessel delays and halted traffic near the Strait of Hormuz impact roughly 24% of seaborne ammonia exports, pushing prices up by 11.6%. Sulfur supply disruptions are intensifying the squeeze, as the Middle East accounts for nearly half of global seaborne sulfur production. Daily shipments of 45,000-50,000 mt through the Strait of Hormuz have been affected, and alternative ports like Yanbu cannot match these volumes. Spot sulfur prices (excluding Iran) rose to $695-$700/mt by March 12, up $200/mt since the conflict began. The ripple effect is global: Baltic and North African granular urea prices have climbed 32%-37% in the same period, highlighting how quickly Middle East supply shocks translate into higher costs for agricultural producers worldwide. Editor: Meghan Gordon US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > Editor: Meghan Gordon ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/040226-infographic-brazilian-i-rec-sector-grows-sharply-risks-excess-supply</link><description>Brazil&amp;apos;s supply of International Renewable Energy Certificates has shown significant growth over the last five years, with one of the world&amp;apos;s largest renewable energy matrices. I-RECs are globally used instruments that certify that the generation of 1 megawatt-hour of electricity comes from a renewable source, such as a solar, wind, biomass or hydroelectric power plant. They provide a credible way</description><title>INFOGRAPHIC: Brazilian I-REC sector grows sharply, risks excess supply</title><pubDate>02 April 2026 17:15:51 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Felipe Peroni</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Electric Power, Energy Transition, Emissions, Renewables April 02, 2026 INFOGRAPHIC: Brazilian I-REC sector grows sharply, risks excess supply By Felipe Peroni Editor: Johanna Leo Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Brazil I-REC supply surges 74% annually Issuances consistently exceed redemptions Untapped plants signal more supply growth Brazil's supply of International Renewable Energy Certificates has shown significant growth over the last five years, with one of the world's largest renewable energy matrices. I-RECs are globally used instruments that certify that the generation of 1 megawatt-hour of electricity comes from a renewable source, such as a solar, wind, biomass or hydroelectric power plant. They provide a credible way for companies to demonstrate their use of renewable energy, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and support investments in new renewable power sources. Over 2020-2025, I-REC issuances in Brazil have increased at a compound annual growth rate of 74%, following and surpassing similar growth in demand, as shown in redemptions. However, supply has been persistently higher than demand: data shows I-REC issuances have consistently exceeded redemptions. As a result, prices have been hovering close to the costs of using these instruments, but market dynamics create volatility that provides opportunities for buyers and sellers. Also, several energy plants have yet to enter this market, indicating room for additional supply growth, as shown in the charts below. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/041526-infographic-electrification-strengthens-chinas-shield-from-middle-east-oil-lng-shocks</link><description>China faces disruptions to oil and LNG supplies originating from the Middle East. Nevertheless, the country is increasingly able to withstand supply shocks caused by transit interruptions in the Strait of Hormuz due to greater electrification, substantial crude oil reserves, expanding wind and solar power generation, available coal capacity and growing domestic gas production.</description><title>INFOGRAPHIC: Electrification strengthens China&amp;apos;s shield from Middle East oil, LNG shocks</title><pubDate>15 April 2026 08:22:38 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Staff </name></author><content><![CDATA[ Crude Oil, Natural Gas, LNG, Coal, Electric Power, Energy Transition, Refined Products, Renewables, Gasoline April 15, 2026 INFOGRAPHIC: Electrification strengthens Chinaâs shield from Middle East oil, LNG shocks Staff Editor: Ankit Ajmera Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Electrification and renewables boost resilience Rising gas output, high oil stocks, coal capacity cushion shocks China faces disruptions to oil and LNG supplies originating from the Middle East. Nevertheless, the country is increasingly able to withstand supply shocks caused by transit interruptions in the Strait of Hormuz due to greater electrification, substantial crude oil reserves, expanding wind and solar power generation, available coal capacity and growing domestic gas production. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/102326-heidelberg-materials-pauses-major-ccs-project-at-german-cement-plant</link><description>Cement giant Heidelberg Materials will pause its GeZero carbon capture project at its Geseke, Germany cement plant due to insufficient economic conditions, Heidelberg said. The German-based building materials producer began work on the project in 2023 and received â&amp;#x82;¬191 million from the EU&amp;apos;s Innovation Fund to support it. Heidelberg said the project would make its facility the first fully</description><title>Heidelberg Materials pauses major CCS project at German cement plant</title><pubDate>23 October 2026 17:54:21 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Anthony Rizkala</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Metals &amp; Mining, Energy Transition, Carbon October 23, 2026 Heidelberg Materials pauses major CCS project at German cement plant By Anthony Rizkala Editor: Meghan Gordon Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Economic conditions, infrastructure maturity delays project Was slated to capture 700,000 mt/year of CO2 Cement giant Heidelberg Materials will pause its GeZero carbon capture project at its Geseke, Germany cement plant due to insufficient economic conditions, Heidelberg said. The German-based building materials producer began work on the project in 2023 and received â¬191 million from the EU's Innovation Fund to support it. Heidelberg said the project would make its facility the first fully decarbonized cement plant in Germany and was expected to capture 700,000 metric tons of COâ annually starting in 2029. "The current pause is a decision made after careful consideration, to successfully plan the next steps for the GeZero project in the long term under the right economic and regulatory conditions," Christoph Streicher, Heidelberg's general manager of German operations, said in an Oct. 22 statement. The company said the decision to pause the carbon capture project will not affect the Geseke plant's ongoing cement operations. According to Heidelberg, one of the primary factors that led to the project's cancellation was the risk of securing the necessary infrastructure on time. "Current framework conditions are not yet sufficient to support a robust business case," said the company in a statement. "In particular, the relevant value chains are not yet mature enough to ensure that COâ transport and storage infrastructure solutions will be available on time, and at an acceptable level of economic risk for us as a COâ producer." Heidelberg emphasized that carbon capture and storage projects depend on several market actors involved in CO2 storage infrastructure and said these efforts require government-supported mechanisms to minimize risk for firms working on CCS. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/102326-inpex-starts-feed-work-on-bonaparte-ccs-project-in-australia</link><description>Japan&amp;apos;s INPEX Corp. said Oct. 23 it has started front-end engineering design work on its operated Bonaparte Carbon Capture and Storage Project in the Bonaparte Basin, about 250 kilometers offshore from Darwin, Australia. &amp;quot;Achieving FEED entry is a significant milestone and provides a clear demonstration of progress toward a final investment decision on the Bonaparte CCS Project, which has the</description><title>INPEX starts FEED work on Bonaparte CCS Project in Australia</title><pubDate>23 October 2026 04:15:15 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Takeo Kumagai</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Natural Gas, LNG, Energy Transition, Refined Products, NGLs, Carbon, Emissions, LPG October 23, 2026 INPEX starts FEED work on Bonaparte CCS Project in Australia By Takeo Kumagai Editor: Ankit Ajmera Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS INPEX targets first COâ injection in the early 2030s Project expected to cut COâ emissions from Ichthys LNG by 40% INPEX to acquire Woodside's 21% stake in Bonaparte CCS Japan's INPEX Corp. said Oct. 23 it has started front-end engineering design work on its operated Bonaparte Carbon Capture and Storage Project in the Bonaparte Basin, about 250 kilometers offshore from Darwin, Australia. "Achieving FEED entry is a significant milestone and provides a clear demonstration of progress toward a final investment decision on the Bonaparte CCS Project, which has the potential to be one of the world's largest carbon storage developments," INPEX said in a statement. INPEX said the Bonaparte CCS Project, in which it holds a 53% stake alongside TotalEnergies CCS Australia Pty. Ltd. (26%) and Woodside Energy Ltd. (21%), has the potential to underpin a strategic regional low-carbon hub by leveraging proven geological resources offshore the Northern Territory, existing energy infrastructure and proximity to major regional markets. The Bonaparte CCS Project became the first offshore CCS project to be awarded major project status by the Australian government in mid-2025 and received approval for the declaration of an identified greenhouse gas storage formation in October. INPEX said the first COâ injection is targeted for the early 2030s, subject to regulatory approvals and commercial agreements, with the Ichthys Joint Venture expected to serve as the anchor customer. The company said the Bonaparte CCS Project has the potential to reduce COâ emissions from its operated Ichthys LNG project by about 40%. The Ichthys LNG project involves piping gas from the offshore Ichthys field in the Browse Basin, northwestern Australia, over 890 km (552 miles) to its onshore LNG plant near Darwin. The project has a nameplate capacity of 9.3 million metric tons/year of LNG across two trains, 1.65 million mt/y of LPG and more than 100,000 barrels/day of condensate at peak, according to INPEX. INPEX said its subsidiary, INPEX Browse E&amp;P Pty. Ltd., is transferring its 53% stake in the project to the newly formed entity INPEX Bonaparte CCS Pty. Ltd. This entity has also executed an agreement with Woodside to acquire its 21% stake in the Bonaparte CCS Project, increasing INPEX's stake to 74% and reinforcing its long-term commitment to advancing the project, INPEX said. The finalization of both acquisitions is subject to the fulfillment of certain conditions, including approval from Australian government regulatory agencies, according to INPEX. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/natural-gas/102326-interview-uniper-exec-sees-europe-winter-gas-supply-secure-price-risks-remain</link><description>Europe is not expected to face natural gas or LNG shortages this winter, even as the continent contends with high prices amid the sustained disruptions linked to the ongoing war in the Middle East, the chief commercial officer for gas and LNG at German energy company Uniper told Platts, part of S&amp;amp;P Global Energy, in an interview on Oct. 22. &amp;quot;We will not have a physical shortage of LNG or gas,&amp;quot;</description><title>INTERVIEW: Uniper exec sees Europe winter gas supply secure, price risks remain</title><pubDate>23 October 2026 11:53:26 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Matt Hoisch</name></author><content><![CDATA[ LNG, Energy Transition, Crude Oil, Coal, Refined Products, Natural Gas, Emissions, Diesel-Gasoil October 23, 2026 INTERVIEW: Uniper exec sees Europe winter gas supply secure, price risks remain By Matt Hoisch Editor: Jonathan Fox Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Gas, LNG CCO says Europe remains short-term focused Urges compliance work if EU methane obligations delayed Remains open to added volumes from US, Middle East Europe is not expected to face natural gas or LNG shortages this winter, even as the continent contends with high prices amid the sustained disruptions linked to the ongoing war in the Middle East, the chief commercial officer for gas and LNG at German energy company Uniper told Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, in an interview on Oct. 22. "We will not have a physical shortage of LNG or gas," Charbel Abi Daher said. "The situation is tight, but there is enough gas and LNG out there. The risk is on the price one needs to pay for it." EU experts have made similar assessments recently, even as Europe approaches winter with its lowest gas storage fill level on record, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe going back to 2011. The war in the Middle East has kept spot LNG prices elevated for much of 2026. Platts assessed the DES Northwest Europe marker at $28.975/million British thermal units on Oct. 22. The benchmark is at its highest point since December 2022. European buyers tend to rely more on short-term deals than those in Asia, Abi Daher explained. Usually, they focus at most three years out, he said. Moreover, despite this year's significant volatility, he said he does not see buyers on the continent shifting toward longer-term deals. He attributed the aversion in part to the wider legal environment. "Committing long-term in Europe is still very difficult because there is still uncertainty about the long-term regulatory framework in the whole energy space in Europe," Abi Daher said. Methane regulation challenges One law that has become a key focus among EU energy players is the bloc's landmark methane emissions regulation. Ahead of this winter, the European Commission has proposed that the EU delay importer requirements under the law for one year, saying the move will "help save costs." The EU Parliament has pushed for even more. It voted Oct. 22 to back a three-year delay and will enter negotiations with the European Council once the latter adopts its position. The requirements cover gas, oil and coal importers. Starting in 2027, they have to show cargoes brought into the bloc under newer contracts face the same level of methane monitoring, reporting and verification as EU producers. The proposed changes would push back these obligations. Abi Daher agreed that a delay would ease strains this winter. "This will help us reduce the pressure on compliance risk and the LNG import risk a little bit," he said. However, he also urged officials to use any extra time to roll out procedures to ensure smooth compliance when the requirements kick in. Industry groups have argued that existing uncertainty around how to comply with the law risks stymying energy flows to the continent. Negotiating wording over liability under the regulation, Abi Daher said, is "one of the main challenges" Uniper faces in contracting LNG in the long term. He pointed in particular to the legal requirement to comply with methane intensity limits that have yet to be set. "It's very difficult to agree on terms regarding this requirement," he said. While Uniper has signed LNG deals since the EU adopted the methane regulation in 2024, Abi Daher said that uncertainty around the law nevertheless poses challenges to contracting cargoes for the continent. "If we do not agree on the methane regulation terms, these volumes might not necessarily be available for Europe. It reduces our ability to sign more contracts for Europe," he said. "The regulation just needs to be clearer about what the targets are so we can reflect that in our contracting." Open to added US, Middle East supplies More broadly, as Uniper develops its LNG portfolio, Abi Daher refused to rule out contracting added volumes from the Middle East or the US down the line. Both face risks. The Iran war has curtailed Persian Gulf LNG exports for much of this year. Abi Daher nevertheless stressed the region remains an important supplier. "It's one of the main producing areas of the world of gas and LNG, and if you really want to diversify, you need to look at that market as well," he said. "I do not exclude it." When it comes to the US, some European market players have grown wary of the continent's heavy reliance on LNG from its transatlantic partner. The US supplied about 60.7% of the EU's LNG imports across the first nine months of 2026, according to data from S&amp;P Global Energy CERA. President Donald Trump's recent (albeit unfulfilled) threats to ban diesel exports amid surging prices have further underscored possible regulatory risks facing cargoes from the world's top LNG supplier. Abi Daher, however, downplayed the possibility that a ban could hamper US LNG shipments. "It is a risk, but we see low likelihood for it to materialize," he said. "We are definitely still looking at the US for more supply, and we are talking to different counterparts." While risks persist, Abi Daher stressed that the focus is on building a "diversified" and "resilient" portfolio. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/metals/102326-lme-week-overhyped-ai-economic-pressures-could-chill-copper-demand-growth</link><description>Expectations surrounding copper consumption in AI data centers, much like projections of copper demand surge in India, may prove to be overstated, experts warned at the Triland Global Metals Outlook hosted by Triland Metals during LME Week Oct. 19-23. Referring to a recent statement by market analyst Andy Home, Bruce Alway, director of metals research at London Stock Exchange Group Data &amp;amp;</description><title>LME Week: Overhyped AI, economic pressures could chill copper demand growth</title><pubDate>23 October 2026 19:31:48 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Katya Bouckley</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Metals &amp; Mining, Energy Transition, Non-Ferrous, Renewables, Ferrous October 23, 2026 LME Week: Overhyped AI, economic pressures could chill copper demand growth By Katya Bouckley Editor: Bill Montgomery Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS AI data center copper needs overestimated: panelist China's demand growth to slow to 1%-1.5% Aluminum substitution accelerates at 4.8:1 ratio Expectations surrounding copper consumption in AI data centers, much like projections of copper demand surge in India, may prove to be overstated, experts warned at the Triland Global Metals Outlook hosted by Triland Metals during LME Week Oct. 19-23. Referring to a recent statement by market analyst Andy Home, Bruce Alway, director of metals research at London Stock Exchange Group Data &amp; Analytics, said at the conference that a calculation error in data center copper usage estimates has overstated the copper needs for these facilities. As for India, many bulls look at it as "the next China," but Alway argued that even in its prime, India may not consume the metal at China's historic rate due to lower metal intensity in modern infrastructure and greater circularity. "While the green energy and data center narratives sound great, technologies like fiber optics reduce copper usage inside data centers," the analyst said. Wide divide More critically, China's market, the world's largest, is slowing, as declines in the construction and home appliance sectors â both historically metal-intensive â are not offset by expanding power grid and electrical demand. Looking at China's PMI, electronics, AI and battery manufacturing â the booming sectors â hit an all-time peak in August at 59.7 points, while the construction index, at 42.9, was down massively from its historic peak, Alway said. China's yearly copper consumption growth is projected to drop to 1%-1.5% toward 2030. This deceleration could turn the country into a net copper exporter, he said. Projected supply deficits have pushed copper prices to record highs, above levels that reflect underlying demand. But soaring costs are forcing even booming sectors to scale back purchasing, according to the panel. The state-run power grid sector, which requires substantial amounts of copper, is highly price-sensitive. Though mandated by the government, projects are being delayed to await lower copper prices, Alway said. Downstream squeeze "When copper prices peaked above $14,000/mt, we saw an immediate reaction: Customers stopped fulfilling their orders," Tanja Winter, executive director of German copper recycling company Aurubis, told the panel. Adjusting to these price spikes requires an immense amount of working capital and places a heavy burden on cash flow. This is compounded by industry payment terms. "I hear from our customers they often have to wait 60, 80 or 120 days to get paid by their clients," she said. Even large original equipment manufacturers have slowed their payment frequencies, shifting from regular intervals to once a month, Winter said. Along with rising prices, the debate over copper-to-aluminum substitution has reached a peak â but today, it is driven by flawed logic, she said. Five years ago, substitution was occurring naturally when the copper-to-aluminum price ratio hit 3:1. Today, copper is almost 4.8 times more expensive than aluminum. Anxiety over scarcity has triggered unnecessary panic-buying, as smaller customers worry that major OEMs will hoard copper and rush to aluminum. But fear of shortages is a bad reason to switch, especially for high-precision components, Winter said. Desperate cost-cutting is also compounding that panic. "In Germany, the automotive industry is in the news daily because their backs are against the wall financially," she said, adding that to cut costs, carmakers are pivoting to aluminum under the guise of sustainability, but from technical, lifetime performance and functional standpoints, aluminum is often a poor choice. LSE's Alway pointed to the aluminum substitution in the air conditioning sector, where manufacturers are designing high-efficiency units with thin-walled aluminum tubes instead of copper. While switching materials has its hurdles â like the cost of changing tooling and equipment â there comes a point where prices force a shift. "Aluminum has about 60% of the electrical conductivity of copper, meaning you need thicker wires, but the price gap is already significant," Alway said. "If the copper-aluminum price ratio stretches to 6:1-7:1 times, substitution will skyrocket." "The era of high copper intensity, from when prices were much lower, is gone," he said. Perfect storm winds down The good news, he noted, is that the copper concentrate market is emerging from a perfect storm of disruptions from May 2025 to August 2026. El NiÃ±o brought rare snow to the Atacama Desert, while a mud flood at Grasberg and seismic activity at Kamoa-Kakula halted major mines. The International Copper Study Group sees this year's growth in copper mine production as concentrated in Mongolia, Indonesia and Russia. Also, China is expanding its Yulong mine, and Peru's Antamina mine should deliver slightly higher output. But traditional concentrate supplies will decline, as production in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia continues to face constraints, with the Kamoa-Kakula and Grasberg mines not yet fully recovered from the accidents, Kamila Slupek, secretary general at the International Copper Study Group, told the panel. Although the industry does not anticipate sizable supply shocks in 2027, concentrate treatment charges remain deeply negative. "Smelters need to pay miners $1,500 per ton of refined copper," Aurubis' Winter said. "That's not healthy." Western smelters narrowly avoid closures thanks to elevated prices for co-products such as precious metals and sulfuric acid, but those revenue drivers are independent of copper and could evaporate at any moment, she said. What mitigates the same squeeze for Chinese smelters is that through joint ventures, China owns 25% of global copper mine supply, including two-thirds of Africa's mining operations, according to Alway. "While global competition for copper concentrate is tightening, China is successfully increasing imports from its own overseas assets â like the Mirador mine in Ecuador and Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia," Alway said. He added that China's relationships with Chile and Peru, the nations providing 60% of its copper imports, remain solid, and their brownfield expansions will ensure China maintains its smelting dominance. Contradictory behavior Intense competition for concentrate put secondary feedstocks in the spotlight, too. In Europe, retaining scrap metal domestically is becoming a strategy partly encouraged by major OEMs pressuring local suppliers to deliver higher-recycled-content metals. With OEMs, the cooperation should be more reciprocal, Aurubis' Winter said. "They request higher recycling rates for their marketing purposes, but when we ask these same OEMs what they do with their own factory scrap, they sell it to those very renowned traders that ship it to China," she said. Refined copper generally contains less than 14% of recycled content, whereas in finished copper products, that share is just over 30%, according to Aurubis. Higher copper prices should make "urban mining" â extracting decommissioned underground cables or recycling old electronics â more economically viable, and dedicated projects are picking up in France and Germany, but copper recycling also faces the same economic traps as the EV battery black mass sector, where two-thirds of planned recycling plants are shutting down due to processing complexity. Furthermore, even as metal prices incentivize recycling, other inflationary pressures and scrap export bans are not helping the economics of scrap collection, according to the panel. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/electric-power/102226-rising-electricity-bills-strain-us-households-ahead-of-midterms-survey</link><description>Consumers are concerned about and strained by rising energy prices across the US, according to a report highlighting increasing utility bills and views on data centers. A Consumer Reports survey, released Oct. 21, found that 81% of US respondents who have lived in the same home for at least three years said their electricity bills increased during that time. Among those, approximately three in</description><title>Rising electricity bills strain US households ahead of midterms: survey</title><pubDate>22 October 2026 20:32:04 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Kirsten Errick</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Electric Power, Agriculture, Energy Transition, Food, Renewables October 22, 2026 Rising electricity bills strain US households ahead of midterms: survey By Kirsten Errick Editor: Benjamin Morse Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS 81% report higher electricity bills in past 3 years Three-quarters face financial strain from costs Consumers are concerned about and strained by rising energy prices across the US, according to a report highlighting increasing utility bills and views on data centers. A Consumer Reports survey, released Oct. 21, found that 81% of US respondents who have lived in the same home for at least three years said their electricity bills increased during that time. Among those, approximately three in four said the increase has strained their household finances. Specifically, 28% said their electricity bills increased between 20% and 49% in the past three years, while 26% said their bills increased by less than 20%. Meanwhile, 6% said their electricity bills increased by at least 50%. The survey captured responses from more than 2,000 US adults in April and May 2026. The results come a few weeks before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, where energy affordability has become a key issue and campaign point for politicians. "We're hearing a lot about energy right now because the midterms are coming up," Sara Enright, senior director of safety and energy at Consumer Reports, told Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy. "So, it's a cost-of-living issue." Enright said this is not a partisan issue. "This survey shows that this affects everyday Americans," Enright said. "This has nothing to do with today's politics. This is a problem that everybody is facing, and we need to come together to help solve it." Energy affordability Households are making efforts to lower their electricity bills. The survey found that approximately one in four respondents had reduced or considered cuts to nonessential spending, such as travel or dining out, and another quarter had reduced heating or cooling to uncomfortable levels. Meanwhile, approximately one in five said they bought fewer groceries or switched to less expensive options, or at least considered it. Another fifth said they looked into or considered whether their utility had programs to reduce their costs. "This is not an issue that's affecting just low-income Americans. It's starting to really push up into the middle class," Enright said. When asked to name factors that are driving up home electricity costs, 45% of survey respondents said utility company profits. Other common responses included increased demand from AI and data centers (38%), frequent fossil fuel price changes (37%) and the costs to improve or repair energy infrastructure (36%). Trust in state utility regulators was low. Only 1% said they trust regulators completely. About 75% said they trust state utility regulators "only a little or not at all" to protect household consumer interests. About half of respondents said that it is "unacceptable" for utilities to pass on expenses to residential customers through higher rates. Respondents said utilities should not charge ratepayers for expenses beyond the cost of producing and delivering energy to residential customers. "This did not differ by political leaning," Consumer Reports said. When utilities are preparing for or recovering from natural disasters, half of respondents said they should receive no profit or less profit than they normally make on major investments. The survey found that 36% of respondents said the US should prioritize building more renewables over the next few years, while 9% favored building mostly or all nonrenewable resources. Meanwhile, 24% of respondents said the resource mix is immaterial as long as it is affordable and reliable. Data centers Data centers have also become a large issue with growing opposition, particularly in the lead-up to the midterms. The majority (84%) of respondents said they would support their local electric utility creating a separate rate category for large-load customers. While several major tech companies signed President Donald Trump's ratepayer protection pledge to ensure data center-related costs are not passed on to other ratepayers, those costs continue to be an issue. The companies that signed include Amazon.com Inc., Google LLC, Meta Platforms Inc., Microsoft Corp., Oracle Corp., OpenAI LLC and X.AI LLC. "We're seeing a continuing trend of people needing help with rising costs, distrust of authority figures that are in charge of the energy system and concern about data centers and tech companies and their promises to pay their own way," Enright said. Generally, respondents were supportive of large electricity users paying more for their infrastructure needs, insulating residential customers from these costs and the financial risks tied to data centers. Half of respondents said that data centers should pay all costs for infrastructure costs built primarily to serve them, and another 39% said they should pay a greater share than other customers. If a data center closes, approximately half of respondents said it should still be required to pay for the full infrastructure costs. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/101926-eu-commits-34b-to-77-net-zero-technology-projects</link><description>The European Commission has selected 77 net-zero technology projects to receive â&amp;#x82;¬3.4 billion in funding from its Innovation Fund, with grants for a wide range of sectors, including renewables, energy-intensive industries, cleantech manufacturing, critical raw materials processing and carbon capture and storage. The grants, financed by revenue from the EU Emissions Trading System, span 23 countries</description><title>EU commits â&amp;#x82;¬3.4B to 77 net-zero technology projects</title><pubDate>19 October 2026 15:29:45 GMT</pubDate><author><name>James Burgess</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Chemicals, Metals &amp; Mining, Maritime &amp; Shipping, Electric Power, Renewables, Emissions, Hydrogen, Ferrous October 19, 2026 EU commits â¬3.4B to 77 net-zero technology projects By James Burgess Editor: Anoop Menon Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Sectors span renewables, critical raw materials, cleantech Innovation Fund backs first small modular nuclear reactor Projects could cut 290 mil mt of COâ in first decade The European Commission has selected 77 net-zero technology projects to receive â¬3.4 billion in funding from its Innovation Fund, with grants for a wide range of sectors, including renewables, energy-intensive industries, cleantech manufacturing, critical raw materials processing and carbon capture and storage. The grants, financed by revenue from the EU Emissions Trading System, span 23 countries across the European Economic Area. The commission estimates the selected projects could avoid the equivalent of about 290 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions over their first decade of operations, contributing to the EU's 2050 climate neutrality goal. Funding is distributed across five categories, and 12 large-scale projects received the largest share of about â¬1.58 billion, covering advanced decarbonized fuels, industrial carbon management, chemicals, iron and steel, aviation, and a Critical Raw Materials Act project. Another 17 medium-scale projects requested â¬458 million targeting chemicals, refineries, maritime, glass, cement and lime, bioenergy, iron and steel and hydrogen. In addition, 20 small-scale projects requested â¬124 million across critical raw material recycling, maritime, pulp and paper, ocean energy, buildings, refineries, chemicals, hydrogen, and advanced alternative fuels. Nearly â¬895 million was earmarked for 12 clean-tech manufacturing projects for heat pumps, solar panels, electrolyzers, electric-vehicle batteries and a facility producing rare earth magnets. About â¬394 million was for 16 pilot projects covering aviation, wind energy, ocean energy, maritime, nuclear energy, direct air carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, chemicals and refineries. For the first time, the selected list includes a small modular nuclear reactor project and a direct air carbon capture and storage project, marking an expansion of the fund's technology scope. The round also includes six critical raw materials projects feeding into the policy priorities of the Net-Zero Industry Act and the RESourceEU Action Plan. All five funding topics were oversubscribed, the commission said confirming "the maturity of Europe's net-zero technology sector and its strong commitment to decarbonize, in alignment with the Clean Industrial Deal." A further 84 projects passed the evaluation but did not receive funding from the available budget. Those projects, along with the 77 successful ones, will benefit from the STEP seal quality label, which the Commission said facilitates access to other private and public funding sources. A further 160 proposals remain eligible for Project Development Assistance through the European Investment Bank, which provides technical and financial advisory support. Next steps Project promoters have been invited to begin preparing grant agreements with the European Climate, Infrastructure and Environment Executive Agency. The results of the grant agreement process will be announced in the first quarter of 2027, the commission said. The commission is preparing to launch the next round of Innovation Fund calls in early December 2026, which will include a â¬1 billion clean-tech manufacturing topic designed to support the de-risking of supply chains in line with the RESourceEU Action Plan. The Innovation Fund, which is leveraging estimated revenues of â¬40 billion from the EU ETS over the period 2020-2030, now has a full portfolio of about 320 projects with almost â¬17 billion in grants committed, the EC said. In 2025, the commission also launched the first industrial heat auction and the third hydrogen auction under the European Hydrogen Bank, also part of the Innovation Fund, with grant agreements for both expected to be signed before the end of 2026. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/electric-power/101526-herculean-effort-needed-for-clean-power-2030-as-uk-doubles-down-on-plan</link><description>UK Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh has doubled down on efforts to reach the 2030 clean power targets, but called for pragmatism to keep energy affordable for all, while system operator NESO said a &amp;quot;Herculean effort&amp;quot; was still needed despite some progress towards the target set two years ago by the government. The clean power mission calls for at least 95% of GB electricity demand to be covered</description><title>&amp;apos;Herculean effort needed&amp;apos; for clean power 2030 as UK doubles down on plan</title><pubDate>15 October 2026 10:04:29 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Andreas Franke</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Electric Power, Natural Gas, Renewables, Carbon October 15, 2026 'Herculean effort needed' for clean power 2030 as UK doubles down on plan By Andreas Franke Editor: Jonathan Fox Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS New minister emphasizes bills over gigawatts 'Difficult winter' ahead for consumers: Ofgem Energy UK calls for urgency tackling energy costs UK Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh has doubled down on efforts to reach the 2030 clean power targets, but called for pragmatism to keep energy affordable for all, while system operator NESO said a "Herculean effort" was still needed despite some progress towards the target set two years ago by the government. The clean power mission calls for at least 95% of GB electricity demand to be covered by clean sources such as renewables, nuclear or carbon-captured gas plants. Speaking Oct. 14 at the annual conference of sector association Energy UK in London, the new minister told industry delegates that "the public doesn't measure the success of our energy system in gigawatts â they measure it in bills and whether they can live comfortably." On that measure, the system "is not working," the minister said. Fahnbulleh â like her predecessor in the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, Ed Miliband â seeks to overhaul a "failing" energy system and promises a "system that delivers for all," blaming exposure to volatile global fossil fuel markets, delays to grid-connected investable projects due to network constraints, on a system that is "simply not working" for consumers. UK gas and power bills are projected to rise sharply in 2027 as wholesale market prices hit levels not seen since 2022, while system costs are rising as well. Fintan Slye, the CEO of NESO, which was created by Miliband in 2024 to fast-track power sector decarbonization, said that despite progress over the past two years, there was still a "Herculean effort" needed to achieve those targets as many large infrastructure projects face massive challenges, with reform to grid connection queues key to managing network constraints amid a Â£70 billion grid investment plan. Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, assessed UK year-ahead power at Â£137.33/MWh (Eur162.39/MWh) on Oct. 14, the highest since April 2023, with only Italian and Irish prices higher across Europe. 'Difficult winter' Tim Jarvis, the new CEO of gas and power regulator Ofgem, said UK energy consumers are facing a "difficult winter" with average household bills expected to reach Â£2,000/year, putting the focus on help for those most under pressure in the upcoming UK budget on Oct. 28. Jarvis told the Energy UK conference that "we are embarking on a once-in-a-generation renewal of our energy infrastructure", with Ofgem ready to facilitate investment and innovation that will bring down the costs of electrification for all consumers. Meanwhile, with the focus of the conference more on energy transition investment than current market trends, delegates largely avoided the issue of UK-EU energy reintegration ahead of a second summit with the bloc in November that will address trading divergences that may overshadow UK power and carbon markets over the coming years. Asked about an unprecedented six capacity margin warnings for the UK grid this summer, the NESO CEO referred to an upcoming report by Ofgem on summer grid operations, noting there were "lessons to be learned," especially during extreme weather events for a system increasingly based on variable renewables such as solar and wind. UK power prices for 2028 are currently trading below continental levels due to the removal of the UK carbon price support levy on power generators from April 2028 and the discount of UK carbon allowances to EUA. Analysts at S&amp;P Global Energy CERA forecast that this would turn GB into a net power exporter compared to net imports of about 10% of GB demand over recent years. Opposition favors nuclear Shadow energy secretary Andrew Bowie from the opposition Conservative Party called for new gas exploration licenses to be granted in the North Sea as the UK oil and gas industry was "dying" due to the current government policy banning the drilling of new fields in the North Sea. Fahnbulleh later confirmed that a decision on Jackdaw was imminent, while a decision on the Rosebank field would take longer. Bowie also set out his vision for a system powered by cheap, secure, abundant and reliable energy from a diverse range of sources to make the UK less dependent on energy imports. In electricity, the main opposition party advocates faster deployment of new nuclear power plants but criticized government plans to expand ground-mounted solar. However, like Fahnbulleh, the shadow energy minister agreed that electrification is the most obvious choice for the UK's energy security, but said it needed to be driven by pragmatic decisions that protect living standards. Energy UK CEO Dhara Vyas opened the conference with a warning that global conflict and extreme weather have made 2026 a defining year for the UK's energy transition, calling for urgency in tackling rising energy costs. "Energy security is national security," Vyas said, adding that it is "right to question, debate, challenge, and also scrutinize the energy transition." CERA analysts forecast installed wind and solar capacity in Great Britain will reach about 97 GW in 2030, almost doubling within five years and broadly aligned with the lower range of NESO's Clean Power scenario, which assumes an 11% increase in annual electricity consumption and major electrification impacts only after 2030. In nuclear, lifespan extensions for the UK's existing reactors since late 2024 added about 90 TWh additional supply through to 2030, the single biggest boost to clean power over the coming years, helping to offset potential delays to the new Hinkley Point C nuclear power plant. UK Clean Power 2030: Selected Targets (GW) CP 2030* CERA (end-2026)** CERA (end-2028)** Offshore wind 43-50 19 27 Onshore wind 27-29 16 19 Solar PV 45-47 24 33 Battery BESS 23-27 8 NA Long duration storage 4-6 0 NA Consumer flexing 10-12 NA NA Nuclear 3-4 5 5 Low carbon dispatchable (CCS/H2) 2-7 0 0 Unabated gas 35 32 33 Interconnectors 12-14 10 12 Source: NESO*, S&amp;P Global Energy** US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/blog/energy-transition/102326-how-indian-states-are-reshaping-the-data-center-landscape</link><description>India&amp;apos;s data center capacity is projected to reach 26.3 gigawatts by 2031-32 from less than 2 GW today, according to a written reply submitted to the Rajya Sabha, the upper house of the Indian parliament, on July 27 by Minister of State for Power Shripad Naik. </description><title>How Indian states are reshaping the data center landscape</title><pubDate>23 October 2026 05:55:19 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Mohd. Sahil Ali</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Electric Power, Renewables October 23, 2026 How Indian states are reshaping the data center landscape Mohd. Sahil Ali Editor: Roma Arora Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... India's data center capacity is projected to reach 26.3 gigawatts by 2031-32 from less than 2 GW today, according to a written reply submitted to the Rajya Sabha, the upper house of the Indian parliament, on July 27 by Minister of State for Power Shripad Naik. The expansion is spreading beyond traditional hubs as states compete for investment, with implications for electricity demand planning across the country. For years, the country's data center industry has been concentrated around established technology and connectivity hubs such as Mumbai, Chennai, Hyderabad, Bengaluru and the National Capital Region. India has attracted data center-related investment commitments worth $100 billion since 2019, involving global cloud and hyperscale companies as well as major domestic operators, according to updated October data from real estate consultant CBRE India. The next phase of expansion shows a different geographic pattern. As cloud computing, artificial intelligence and digital consumption increase demand for computing infrastructure, Indian states are developing more targeted policies to attract data center investment. State policy has become a key determinant of where capacity gets built. From IT companies to digital infrastructure S&amp;P Global Energy CERA's policy analysis identifies four phases in data center development policy in India. Phase 1: IT-centric approach Initial information technology (IT) and IT-enabled services policies (2016-18) were primarily designed around IT parks, connectivity, skills and technology clusters. Telangana Data Centers Policy 2016 was an early exception, introducing provisions including grid assurance, open access, essential-services classification and data center-oriented building norms. Phase 2: Infrastructure recognition Between 2019 and 2022, states began treating data centers as a separate infrastructure category. Large data centers have requirements quite different from conventional IT companies, including substantial contiguous land, highly reliable electricity supplies, connectivity and longer project-development cycles, according to CERA. Policy incentives consequently expanded to include stamp-duty exemptions, open-access electricity, dual-grid supply and faster approvals. Phase 3: Economic optimization Policies introduced reimbursements of indirect taxes such as the State Goods and Services Tax (SGST) reimbursements, training support, infrastructure assistance and customized packages have increasingly focused on improving overall project economics, according to CERA. Phase 4: AI-ready infrastructure Since 2025, state data center policies have placed greater emphasis on AI-ready infrastructure, hyperscale development, renewable-energy procurement and advanced digital ecosystems, according to CERA. States are now competing to attract digital infrastructure supporting the AI economy, not just IT companies. States compete with different strategies In the Data Center Policy Attractiveness Index (DCPAI) developed by CERA, Telangana has emerged as the most attractive state overall, while Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh have relatively balanced packages spanning power, infrastructure, capital and regulatory incentives. The index scores 19 data centers and IT policies across 11 states along four dimensions: electricity incentives, land and capital support, operational and technical support and regulation and ease of doing business. Other standout states include Gujarat, for its electricity framework that combines electricity duty benefits, tariff subsidies and renewable energy access; and Andhra Pradesh, for its land and capital support. Policy differences matter because electricity represents a major long-term operating cost for data centers. Power availability and pricing influence where operators choose to build. Accelerating capacity pipeline India's computing requirements are expanding as state-level competition intensifies. CERA estimates current data center capacity at about 1.6 GW, with 5 GW of additional capacity committed and another 6-7 GW announced or at earlier stages. Maharashtra has the largest share of announced capacity, according to announcements from developers and state governments. Projects linked to AirTrunk, NTT Inc. and AdaniConneX amount to about 3.5 GW linked to the state. Andhra Pradesh has secured a 1-GW Google commitment for a hyperscale facility in Visakhapatnam alongside additional AdaniConneX capacity. Telangana and Tamil Nadu also have robust project pipelines. Across states, 11-12 GW of pipeline was announced in 2025-26 alone. This expansion has implications for both state economic-development strategies and electricity planning. Geographic diversification of electricity demand India's data center electricity demand is becoming more geographically distributed. Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Telangana will remain important demand hubs, while Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh will drive substantial capacity additions, according to CERA projections. The four largest states' share of data center demand is projected to decline from nearly 90% in 2025 to 66% by 2035. Instead of data center electricity demand remaining overwhelmingly concentrated around Mumbai and Chennai, more states will participate in the sector's expansion. Haryana, West Bengal, Kerala, Rajasthan and Odisha are among the states expected to gain share, according to CERA. The geographic spread makes data center planning a state-level electricity issue, linking digital infrastructure policy with power-system development and renewable-energy availability. Why incentives are not enough Policy incentives alone do not determine investment outcomes. Tamil Nadu retains a robust investment pipeline despite having a lower policy score in the DCPAI than several competitors. Connectivity and broader ecosystem advantages remain as important as incentives. Fiscal concessions improve project economics by reducing upfront costs, while electricity incentives can potentially lower operating costs considerably. Similarly, faster permitting can make development easier. However, states require foundational elements: high-quality internet connectivity, affordable and reliable clean electricity, suitable infrastructure and an ecosystem capable of supporting large data center clusters. India's data center expansion is therefore becoming a competition over which states can combine incentives with infrastructure, power and digital ecosystems most effectively. The states that achieve this balance are likely to attract the next wave of investment. This article contains data, views and forecasts from S&amp;P Global Energy CERA analysts and does not represent reporting by Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/metals/102226-fortera-to-build-first-commercial-scale-low-carbon-cement-plant-in-missouri</link><description>California-based green cement producer Fortera plans to build its first commercial-scale facility in Ste. Genevieve, Missouri, the company said Oct. 22. In September, Fortera signed a partnership with Mississippi Lime Company (MLC) to develop its plant. Under the newly announced plans, Fortera will build a 300,000 mt/year cement plant at MLC&amp;apos;s Ste. Genevieve production site. The facility is</description><title>Fortera to build first commercial-scale low-carbon cement plant in Missouri</title><pubDate>22 October 2026 18:16:01 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Anthony Rizkala</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Metals &amp; Mining, Energy Transition, Carbon October 22, 2026 Fortera to build first commercial-scale low-carbon cement plant in Missouri By Anthony Rizkala Editor: Karina Roman Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS To be built near Mississippi Lime Company site 300,000 mt/y plant to capture lime production emissions Location allows delivery across US and internationally California-based green cement producer Fortera plans to build its first commercial-scale facility in Ste. Genevieve, Missouri, the company said Oct. 22. In September, Fortera signed a partnership with Mississippi Lime Company (MLC) to develop its plant. Under the newly announced plans, Fortera will build a 300,000 mt/year cement plant at MLC's Ste. Genevieve production site. The facility is expected to capture carbon dioxide emitted from MLC's lime production operations at the site and turn it into low-carbon cement. "Building alongside the largest lime operation in the Americas lets us turn an existing emissions stream into hundreds of thousands of tons of cement to meet demand that already exists," said Ryan Gilliam, CEO and co-founder of Fortera. Fortera said the site was selected for its scale and location along the Mississippi River, which will enable deliveries across most of the US and internationally. According to the company, its proprietary low-carbon ReAct cement reduces emissions by up to 70% compared to traditional cement production. "The cement manufactured at the Ste. Genevieve plant is planned to be used across the Midwest, including by Ozinga, a fifth-generation, family-owned concrete and building materials company," said Fortera in a statement. Fortera announced in December 2025 that its ReAct low-carbon cement met all six ASTM C1157 performance categories. Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, assessed Cement CIF Houston at $95.25/mt Oct. 15. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/102026-interview-saf-scale-up-needs-investor-push-dubai-airports-ceo-warns</link><description>The head of Dubai Airports has warned that sustainable aviation fuel will remain a marginal energy source for the global aviation industry unless a major injection of capital into production infrastructure breaks a self-reinforcing cycle of high costs and weak demand. Dubai Airports CEO Paul Griffiths told Platts in an interview that SAF currently accounts for barely 1% of global jet fuel</description><title>INTERVIEW: SAF scale-up needs investor push, Dubai Airports CEO warns</title><pubDate>20 October 2026 13:03:59 GMT</pubDate><author><name>James Burgess</name><name>Thomas Washington</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Refined Products, Crude Oil, Electric Power, Energy Transition, Agriculture, Jet Fuel, Hydrogen, Carbon, Biofuels October 20, 2026 INTERVIEW: SAF scale-up needs investor push, Dubai Airports CEO warns By James Burgess and Thomas Washington Editor: Jonathan Loades-Carter Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Aviation's green fuel push stalls on cost and scale eSAF could be game-changer for sun-rich Middle East Hormuz disruption causes minimal Dubai fuel issues The head of Dubai Airports has warned that sustainable aviation fuel will remain a marginal energy source for the global aviation industry unless a major injection of capital into production infrastructure breaks a self-reinforcing cycle of high costs and weak demand. Dubai Airports CEO Paul Griffiths told Platts in an interview that SAF currently accounts for barely 1% of global jet fuel consumption â which runs at around 7 million to 8 million b/d â and that the economics of scaling up production remain deeply challenging for an airline industry operating on thin margins and already facing soaring oil prices amid the US-Israeli war with Iran. "The only way forward is to stimulate [SAF] supply," Griffiths said. "Don't start at the demand end, start at the supply end. The biggest single problem you've got to solve is the fact that there is inadequate supply of SAF to make even the smallest dent in global jet fuel demand." His comments reflect growing frustration among airport operators and aviation sustainability advocates that policy fragmentation, feedstock constraints and the steep cost premium of SAF are preventing the fuel from gaining meaningful traction in global aviation trade flows, despite regulatory mandates in Europe and elsewhere. Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, assessed SAF, produced via the hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids pathway CIF Northwest Europe at $2,498.75/metric ton on Oct. 19, a 52% premium to jet fuel on an equivalent basis. The premium has shrunk from 176% on Feb. 27, before the US and Israel war with Iran boosted jet fuel prices. Analysts at S&amp;P Global Energy Horizons expect 60,000 barrels/day of SAF production globally in 2026, rising to 72,000 b/d in 2027 and 97,000 b/d in 2028. Supply chain fix Griffiths said only economies of scale can bring SAF costs down to parity with conventional jet fuel, and proposed assembling a financial consortium of capital partners to invest directly in SAF production infrastructure. "We're not going to do this unless we produce SAF at scale, and you're not going to get investment in SAF at scale until you've got demand at scale," Griffiths said. "If demand is dependent on equalized pricing with jet A1, then you've got to invest in supply to [bring] the production cost down to the production cost of jet A1." Griffiths leads the aviation workstream at the Sustainable Markets Initiative, a global private-sector organization for sustainable transition. He outlined one potential mechanism to bridge the cost gap: blending SAF into conventional jet fuel at the airport level and spreading the cost premium across the entire fuel supply via a small surcharge on jet fuel. Under a 10% blend scenario in which SAF costs twice as much as conventional fuel, the SAF premium would be distributed across the remaining 90% of the fuel supply, resulting in a modest per-unit surcharge for airlines, he said. As blend ratios rise and production volumes increase, unit costs should fall, he added. Griffiths acknowledged, however, that implementing such a scheme would require unanimity among fuel suppliers operating at any given airport, since SAF must be introduced into the shared fueling system rather than delivered separately to individual aircraft. Securing that agreement in a cost-sensitive market would be difficult, he said. Griffiths pointed to Singapore, Heathrow and Amsterdam Schiphol as airports that have moved furthest toward embedding SAF into their fuel supply chains â through passenger ticket surcharges, government-mandated blend targets and sustainability compliance requirements. But he expressed skepticism that consumer preference for greener airlines would be sufficient on its own to drive wider adoption, particularly given current market conditions. On the policy side, Griffiths said the absence of a universal government mandate remained the central obstacle to investment in SAF production. He noted that EU policy and US policy were "diametrically opposed" â with the US incentivizing supply-side production without mandating consumption, while Europe had introduced consumption mandates without yet enforcing them. "Unless more governments mandate this, the incentive to invest in the production of SAF isn't really there," he said. He also noted that several airlines that had previously committed to SAF purchase policies and carbon offset programs had quietly abandoned those pledges "because they don't think that particular initiative is something that's economically sustainable." At a 30% SAF blend ratio â a level that would make a material difference to aviation's carbon footprint â the cost premium would be so large that any airline absorbing it would become uncompetitive, Griffiths said. Dubai and eSAF At Dubai Airport itself, Griffiths said there were pilot SAF projects under way but no permanent SAF blend in the airport's aviation fuel supply, and no clear near-term pathway toward one. Conventional SAF production pathways, particularly the HEFA process, are constrained by limited feedstock availability in the region, he said. However, Griffiths identified synthetic SAF â known as eSAF â as a potential game-changer for the Middle East, given the region's abundant solar energy resources. But eSAF, which is produced from renewable-powered hydrogen production and CO2, currently costs around 10-12 times the price of conventional jet fuel, and relies on immature, energy-intensive production technology, he said. "The Middle East, with its abundance of sunshine, is probably very well placed for the development and production of eSAF plants to be undertaken in sufficient quality to make a difference to the fuel supply chain," Griffiths said. "But the technology is nascent technology. It's not very mature. It's incredibly inefficient in terms of the amount of power use." He described eSAF as "the future, but probably not the immediate future," and said investment in photovoltaic energy generation was a prerequisite for making eSAF a viable commercial proposition in the UAE. A challenge for eSAF is price; analysts at Energy Horizons forecast the levelized cost of eSAF at $7,720/mt in 2026, falling to $6,213/mt in 2030 and $5,152/mt in 2040. On the impact of the Strait of Hormuz crisis on Dubai Airport's operations, Griffiths said the closure had not caused significant disruption to fuel supply, given the UAE's status as an oil-producing nation. He warned, however, that a sustained period of high oil prices could weigh on aviation demand by making air travel more expensive. He said traffic at Dubai Airport had recovered strongly over the past six months following a period in which regional conflict had suppressed demand, and expressed optimism about a further rebound in October. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/natural-gas/102226-eu-parliament-backs-3-year-delay-to-methane-importer-obligations</link><description>The EU&amp;apos;s parliament voted Oct. 22 to back a three-year delay on importer requirements under the EU&amp;apos;s methane emissions regulation. The parliament is seeking a longer window than the European Commission, which called for a one-year delay earlier this month. The parliament handled the matter under its urgent procedure, which allows for priority consideration of proposals. The measure passed with 341</description><title>EU parliament backs 3-year delay to methane importer obligations</title><pubDate>22 October 2026 14:33:34 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Matt Hoisch</name></author><content><![CDATA[ LNG, Energy Transition, Natural Gas, Crude Oil, Coal, Emissions October 22, 2026 EU parliament backs 3-year delay to methane importer obligations By Matt Hoisch Editor: Vaibhavi Ranjan Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Longer than one-year delay proposal from EC Industry groups also push for for 3-year delay The EU's parliament voted Oct. 22 to back a three-year delay on importer requirements under the EU's methane emissions regulation. The parliament is seeking a longer window than the European Commission, which called for a one-year delay earlier this month. The parliament handled the matter under its urgent procedure, which allows for priority consideration of proposals. The measure passed with 341 votes in favor, 225 against, and 6 absentions, according to a statement. The parliament will next go into negotiations with the EU Council. A Council spokesperson told Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, Oct. 22, that member state representatives had discussed the EC's methane proposal on Oct. 21 and that ambassadors will again discuss the matter on Oct. 28. The parliament also voted to give EU oil and natural gas operators three additional years to submit reports on source- and site-level methane measurements required by law. Methane obligations The EU adopted its landmark methane emissions regulation in 2024. Under the law, importers of crude oil, gas, and coal into the EU via new contracts will have to show that volumes they bring into the bloc are subject to the same methane monitoring, reporting and verification requirements as those produced within the EU from the start of 2027. The push to delay these requirements comes amid both economic and procedural concerns. The European Commission framed its decision to propose the delay in terms of the ongoing market turmoil spurred by the war in the Middle East. The move, it said, would "help save costs" as Europe approaches what many expect will be a tough winter of expensive energy. Market watchers, however, have been skeptical that a delay will lower energy prices in the coming months. Industry participants, meanwhile, have also called for a delay for different reasons. Many worry about uncertainty over how to implement and comply with the regulation. Industry groups have called for a three-year delay to allow time to develop compliance mechanisms. The wrangling comes as European LNG prices remain elevated with winter approaching. Platts assessed the DES Northwest Europe LNG marker at $27.985/million British thermal unit on Oct. 21, near its highest level since December 2022. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/102226-qantas-announces-a30m-partnership-for-australian-carbon-credit-units</link><description>Qantas announced an A$30 million partnership with Greening Australia and Conscious Investment Management to restore cleared land in South Australia, with the first project targeting nearly 800 hectares on Barngarla Country on the Eyre Peninsula, Hayley Alchin, Qantas executive manager for climate strategy, finance and reporting, said Oct. 20. &amp;quot;We cannot do this alone,&amp;quot; Alchin said, announcing the</description><title>Qantas announces A$30M partnership for Australian carbon credit units</title><pubDate>22 October 2026 03:21:45 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Himanshu Chauhan</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Emissions, Carbon October 22, 2026 Qantas announces A$30M partnership for Australian carbon credit units By Himanshu Chauhan Editor: Ankit Ajmera Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS First project to restore 800 ha in Barngarla Country Move expands Qantas' nature-based carbon portfolio Qantas announced an A$30 million partnership with Greening Australia and Conscious Investment Management to restore cleared land in South Australia, with the first project targeting nearly 800 hectares on Barngarla Country on the Eyre Peninsula, Hayley Alchin, Qantas executive manager for climate strategy, finance and reporting, said Oct. 20. "We cannot do this alone," Alchin said, announcing the partnership at the Australasian Emissions Reduction Summit 2026 in Adelaide. The investment aims to generate native afforestation-based environmental planting ACCUs, according to Alchin. Alchin did not provide details on the investment structure, project timeline or expected ACCU generation from the restoration project. Greening Australia is an environmental restoration nonprofit, while Conscious Investment Management is an Australia-based impact investment fund manager. The announcement builds on Qantas' existing investments in nature-based carbon projects, including its participation as a foundational investor in the Silva Carbon Origination Fund in 2024. Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, assessed environmental planting ACCUs at A$54.00/metric ton of CO2 equivalent on Oct. 21, down 25 cents/mtCO2e day over day, at a premium of A$16.25/mtCO2e over the Platts benchmark generic ACCU price. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/natural-gas/101526-one-year-eu-methane-law-delay-unlikely-to-shift-lng-prices-analysts</link><description>The European Commission&amp;apos;s push to delay importer requirements under a landmark law regulating methane emissions is unlikely to sway LNG prices significantly in the near-term as Europe approaches what is expected to be a challenging winter, market watchers told Platts, part of S&amp;amp;P Global Energy. The EC released an official proposal Oct. 14 to postpone requirements that importers bringing oil,</description><title>One-year EU methane law delay unlikely to shift LNG prices: analysts</title><pubDate>15 October 2026 13:32:10 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Matt Hoisch</name><name>Corey Paul</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, LNG, Natural Gas, Crude Oil, Coal, Emissions October 15, 2026 One-year EU methane law delay unlikely to shift LNG prices: analysts By Matt Hoisch and Corey Paul Editor: Benjamin Morse Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Anticipate little market effect as LNG prices surge EC proposes postponing importer requirements to 2028 Spokesperson says move to avoid 'any additional risk' The European Commission's push to delay importer requirements under a landmark law regulating methane emissions is unlikely to sway LNG prices significantly in the near-term as Europe approaches what is expected to be a challenging winter, market watchers told Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy. The EC released an official proposal Oct. 14 to postpone requirements that importers bringing oil, natural gas, and coal into the EU show that cargoes entering the bloc under newer contracts face the same methane monitoring, reporting, and verification standards as EU producers. The requirements â currently set to begin next year â would only phase in for imports starting in 2028 under the changes, which still require approval from the European Council and Parliament. The proposal came after calls from several member states, including France and Germany, to postpone the importer obligations amid the ongoing market turmoil. Platts assessed the DES Northwest Europe LNG marker at $27.705/million British thermal unit on Oct. 14. The benchmark is just shy of its highest point since December 2022. Several analysts, though, are skeptical the delay can offer much breathing room for market players navigating the current high-price environment. "I wouldn't expect a large [price] impact," Aldo Spanjer, head of commodity strategy at BNP Paribas, said after the EC had signaled it would propose the one-year delay but before the release of the formal text. "I don't believe the market has priced in any potential (small) upside this policy might have on paper, nor any reduction in non-compliant LNG imports, so consequently I would expect little downside from the delay." Maria Olczak, a senior research fellow with the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies whose work explores the methane regulation, likewise expects a one-year delay to have little effect on markets. "I don't think that there is any immediate threat [from the regulation]," she said. Olczak's assessment dovetails with comments from another industry source who said in September that the methane regulation would likely only affect the European LNG market over the longer term. "I don't expect that Jan. 1 [2027] this [methane regulation] will have an effect on prices," the source said on the sidelines of the Gastech conference in Bangkok. "It will not change the flows of LNG on Jan. 1. But I think it's going to affect the long-term appetite for suppliers to supply into Europe." 'Political insurance' These assessments push against part of the EC's justification for the delay, which has largely focused on the need to manage near-term pressure. The Commission framed the move as a way to "help save costs" in a statement Oct. 14 announcing the proposal. "This one-year postponement of the import-related provisions is designed to help avoid additional pressures on the security of supply of imported fossil fuels in the current geopolitical context," it said in the statement. An EC spokesperson told Platts Oct. 15 there is no evidence the methane regulation has any effect on prices. "The postponement in itself is not expected to have a particular impact on prices," the spokesperson said. "The postponement is framed on a context of already very elevated prices, and we need to avoid taking any additional risk." Olczak characterized the proposed delay more as "political insurance" than a market-shifting development. "Nobody can blame the Commission that they didn't do anything," she said. Industry stance Market players have argued that uncertainty around how to comply with the regulation poses a threat to Europe's energy security. But industry groups have decried the one-year delay as insufficient, calling instead for a three-year pause to allow time to develop what they see as workable compliance options. Charlie Riedl, executive director of the US trade group the Center for Liquefied Natural Gas, said Oct. 15 that a one-year delay could provide some relief for spot-market participants but would do little to resolve uncertainty surrounding long-term contracts, speaking during a panel at the Gulf Coast Energy Forum in New Orleans. "A year delay helps from their spot market perspective and selling spot, but it doesn't help with any long-term agreements that we're trying to talk about -- securing Europe's long-term gas supply," Riedl said. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2026/10/doe-energy-efficiency-rebates-delayed-as-winter-heating-season-begins-106906796</link><description>Most states are awaiting word from the US Department of Energy on whether their programs to help homeowners save on energy costs can take effect. The $8.8 billion energy rebate program was paused for review in February 2025.</description><title>DOE energy-efficiency rebates delayed as winter heating season begins</title><pubDate>15 October 2026 13:22:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Karin Rives</name></author><content><![CDATA[ 15 Oct, 2026 DOE energy-efficiency rebates delayed as winter heating season begins By Karin Rives Workers install a residential heat pump system in Charlotte, Vermont, in July 2025. States say they hope to get their energy appliance rebate programs approved ahead of the 2026-2027 heating season. Source: Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images News via Getty Images. As autumn temperatures begin to set in, West Virginia and Florida are the only US states with federal approval so far to launch revised home energy rebate programs that comply with the Trump administration's energy agenda. The Home Owner Managing Energy Savings (HOMES) and High-Efficiency Electric Home Rebate (HEEHR) programs, designed to help US households reduce their energy bills, were part of the Inflation Reduction Act enacted more than four years ago. Many states had already developed their rebate programs when the US Department of Energy halted the $8.8 billion federal initiative for review in early 2025, while others had submitted initial plans to the agency. Some plans had already been implemented. Now, dozens of states are still waiting for the DOE to approve their reworked energy rebate program applications and plans. Lowering energy costs for ratepayers is a key concern for the US power industry after a year of rising electricity prices. Utilities nationwide are under pressure from regulators and policymakers to control costs. "People need this funding," Mark Kresowik, senior policy director for the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, said in an interview. "Every single dollar that goes out for a program that will help a family afford their energy, in this moment when far too many families are struggling to keep the lights on and stay safe and comfortable in their homes, matters." The DOE said Oct. 14 that it had approved Florida's HEEHR program for launch later in the fall, and that it is working with states with previously launched programs "to bring them into compliance with the revised program guidance." States looking for news The Oregon Department of Energy began to enroll contractors on Oct. 12 in anticipation of a future launch of its rebate program but does not have a timeline for when they can get to work, Jenny Kalez, the agency's communications director, said in a Oct. 13 email. The state is getting the rollout ready to go in hopes of obtaining DOE approval in time for a late fall or early winter launch, she said. Montana is working on the design of its program while awaiting DOE approval, Madison McGeffers, a spokesperson for the Montana Department of Environmental Quality, said in an email. Early morning temperatures in the capital of Helena hit a low of 26 degrees F on Oct. 14. "DEQ does not anticipate that rebates will be available this winter," McGeffers said. Other states such as Illinois, Kentucky, North Dakota and Texas are telling potential rebate recipients that their programs remain on hold pending DOE approval. 1,000 West Virginia applications in 2 weeks States and energy efficiency advocates were nonetheless encouraged by the fact that two states now have clearance to proceed. Homeowners can save up to $8,000 in rebates under the HOMES program and up to $14,000 under HEEHR. West Virginia has received more than 1,000 applications from homeowners since Sept. 28, when Governor Patrick Morrisey (Republican) announced that the state's program had final DOE approval, Lars Dalseide, a spokesperson for the governor's office, said in an Oct. 14 email. The state is lining up some 350 contractors to install heat pumps for space cooling and heating, more efficient water heaters and other appliances and to weatherize homes. "Affordability is one of the biggest challenges facing West Virginia families, and lowering monthly energy bills is one way we can help families keep more of their hard-earned money," Morrisey said in a statement. Ambiguous guidance Unlike many other initiatives under the Biden-era law, the energy rebates were spared congressional and administration cuts. However, the DOE in its review removed environmental justice language and barred homeowners from using the rebates to replace appliances running on oil and natural gas with electric ones. If and how the fuel-switching prohibition will be enforced is uncertain. The new DOE guidance also says a home can "retain existing fossil-fuel HVAC systems when installing a heat pump, even if the heat pump will not become the primary source of heating and cooling." "You cannot rip out your fossil fuel-fired equipment and completely replace it with electric equipment and claim a rebate, but you can leave the equipment in place," Tim Ballo, a supervising senior attorney with Earthjustice, said in an interview. Because the DOE guidance does not specify what share of a home's total energy consumption each system would need to supply, states may allow homeowners to use a hybrid system, Ballo said. At least one state read the guidance to say that rebates can in fact be used to help pay for the cost of installing a new heat pump for space heating and cooling "even if the heat pump will replace a non-electric system." The rebates just cannot be used to pay for removing a non-electric system, a spokesperson for that state said. Premium Content Log in to the Capital IQ Pro platform to continue exploring Exclusive content like the article above is available to our subscribers on S&amp;P Capital IQ Pro. Not a subscriber? Let's connect to discuss how Capital IQ Pro can fit into your organization's workflow. Log in to Capital IQ Pro Connect with an expert ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/101926-global-low-carbon-gas-shift-needs-carbon-pricing-i-rec-tokyo-speakers</link><description>The decarbonization of natural gas markets will require both a robust attribute certification infrastructure and significantly higher carbon prices, speakers at the International Renewable Energy Certificates Day Japan conference in Tokyo said on Oct. 16, with implications for LNG trade flows, gas pricing and energy security across Asia. Travis Caddy, Director of Xpansiv, and Takeo Kikkawa,</description><title>Global low-carbon gas shift needs carbon pricing: I-REC Tokyo speakers</title><pubDate>19 October 2026 09:05:21 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Rachel Tan</name><name>Ahmad afiq Muhammad zahir</name><name>Aliana zulaika Yeong</name><name>Ying Ting Lew</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, LNG, Natural Gas, Agriculture, Electric Power, Emissions, Biofuels, Renewables, Hydrogen, Carbon October 19, 2026 Global low-carbon gas shift needs carbon pricing: I-REC Tokyo speakers By Rachel Tan, Ahmad afiq Muhammad zahir, Aliana zulaika Yeong, and Ying Ting Lew Editor: Sarah Mishra Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Certification standards enable green gas trade Carbon pricing must rise to shift fuels Book-and-claim model scales attribute market The decarbonization of natural gas markets will require both a robust attribute certification infrastructure and significantly higher carbon prices, speakers at the International Renewable Energy Certificates Day Japan conference in Tokyo said on Oct. 16, with implications for LNG trade flows, gas pricing and energy security across Asia. Travis Caddy, Director of Xpansiv, and Takeo Kikkawa, President of the International University of Japan, approached the low-carbon gas transition from different angles -- market infrastructure and energy policy, respectively. Caddy said natural gas will remain part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future, but its continued use must be underpinned by verifiable environmental attributes and a carbon pricing framework that can drive fuel switching at scale. Certification infrastructure Combining renewable energy with the electrification of end users could deliver emissions reductions of up to 70%, and realizing this potential would have a significant impact on gas and LNG pricing as well as on energy security, Caddy said. He noted the role of attribute certification in making the environmental value of biogas and biomethane visible and tradable. Caddy described biogas and biomethane as a "double dividend" -- reducing greenhouse gas emissions while strengthening energy independence by utilizing existing gas infrastructure. However, he said that without a globally standardized trading instrument, the green value embedded in low-carbon gas cannot be effectively priced by markets or used to mobilize investment. Caddy outlined three chain-of-custody models for managing green gas attributes -- full segregation, mass balance and book-and-claim. He identified the book-and-claim model as the mechanism best suited to scaling the market, under which environmental attributes are fully decoupled from the physical flow of gas. The book-and-claim model connects supply and demand across geographic and infrastructure constraints, enables companies to demonstrate decarbonization progress ahead of physical green gas infrastructure build-out and provides bankable demand signals that can unlock project financing for new biogas and biomethane developments. Looking ahead, Caddy described the convergence of gas and electricity attribute markets as a defining feature of the next phase of environmental attribute certificate market development. He said Xpansiv's I-TRACK (G) and I-REC (E) platforms are designed to stack, enabling multi-product claims from a single integrated platform. "The future of the EAC market is not siloed," Caddy said. Carbon pricing imperative Kikkawa said Japan's 7th Strategic Energy Plan should not be read as a retreat from carbon neutrality, but rather as a more nuanced framework for achieving it while natural gas continues to play a role in the country's energy system. "The key point here is that it's based on the premise of achieving carbon neutrality," Kikkawa said. "While it's true that we'll continue to use natural gas, the essence of what we're saying is that we'll do even more to absorb and recover it." He identified hydrogen and ammonia as important alternative fuels within this framework, pointing to the transition from gas-fired to hydrogen-fired power plants and from coal-fired to ammonia-fired generation as key elements of Japan's decarbonization strategy. However, he was explicit that these transitions cannot proceed without a step change in carbon pricing. "This kind of thing won't be possible without carbon pricing, or rather, a very high level of carbon pricing, which is currently low but will eventually be implemented," Kikkawa said. He projected environmental value price points ranging from Â¥3,000-Â¥20,000/metric tons of CO2 equivalent, noting that higher carbon prices would progressively erode the economics of coal-fired power and synthetic fuels. Platts assessed J-credit Energy Efficiency at Â¥4,450/mtCO2e on Oct. 16, down Â¥30/mtCO2e from the previous session. Kikkawa also highlighted a policy pivot in Japan away from synthetic fuels and toward biomethane as the preferred pathway for decarbonizing the city's gas networks. He pointed to Tokyo Gas's shift in focus from eMethane toward biomethane, and to the renaming of Japan's methanation promotion council to reflect a broader mandate encompassing biological fuel production methods. He said a council meeting held just days before the conference formally confirmed the name change. Kikkawa raised concerns about the correct attribution of CO2 emissions reductions across complex supply chains, stressing that double counting must be avoided. For imported synthetic methane, he said a trilateral credit mechanism -- similar in structure to Japan's existing Joint Crediting Mechanism -- would be necessary to properly account for cross-border flows. Market outlook Japan, as one of the world's largest LNG importers with extensive existing gas infrastructure and growing policy momentum behind biomethane and hydrogen, sits at the center of all the themes addressed at the conference. Platts assessed the December JKM, the benchmark price for LNG cargoes delivered to Northeast Asia, at $29.732/million British thermal units on Oct. 16, up 47.3 cents/MMBtu, or 1.62%, from the previous session. The policy and market architecture being developed -- standardized attribute certification on one side, a strengthening carbon pricing framework on the other -- is expected to reshape the economics of gas trade flows, accelerate investment in low-carbon gas projects and drive a broader convergence between environmental attribute markets and physical commodity markets across the Asia-Pacific region. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/101926-i-rec-standards-government-alignment-key-to-scaling-sustainable-supply-chains-foundation-says</link><description>Building globally interoperable attribute tracking standards while respecting national policy frameworks are the twin pillars needed to scale environmental certificate markets and unlock sustainable supply chains, executives from the I-TRACK Foundation said at I-REC Day Japan in Tokyo Oct. 16. Jared Braslawsky, executive director, and Roble Rosenheim, director of Global Partnerships and APAC</description><title>I-REC standards, government alignment key to scaling sustainable supply chains, foundation says</title><pubDate>19 October 2026 06:07:28 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Rachel Tan</name><name>Ahmad afiq Muhammad zahir</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Metals &amp; Mining, Electric Power, Emissions, Carbon, Non-Ferrous, Renewables October 19, 2026 I-REC standards, government alignment key to scaling sustainable supply chains, foundation says By Rachel Tan and Ahmad afiq Muhammad zahir Editor: Manish Parashar Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Attribute certification common language for sustainability claims Verified data replaces estimate-based sustainability reporting Government alignment central to I-REC ecosystem expansion Building globally interoperable attribute tracking standards while respecting national policy frameworks are the twin pillars needed to scale environmental certificate markets and unlock sustainable supply chains, executives from the I-TRACK Foundation said at I-REC Day Japan in Tokyo Oct. 16. Jared Braslawsky, executive director, and Roble Rosenheim, director of Global Partnerships and APAC regional director, approached the challenge from complementary angles â standards architecture and market activation, respectively â but converged on a consistent message: the infrastructure for verified sustainability claims must be built on facts, trust and government alignment if it is to function credibly across borders. Common language, built on facts A central theme across both presentations was the role of attribute certification as a universal translation tool â converting national sustainability frameworks into a language that international supply chains can understand and rely upon. Braslawsky described the I-TRACK Foundation's standards not as prescriptive rulebooks but as a shared factual infrastructure. "We say the facts and let government stakeholders decide what's good for their national interest," he said. The foundation's role is to establish what can be proven and verified, while leaving definitional and policy judgments to national authorities. Rosenheim reinforced this principle from a market development perspective, emphasizing that the foundation's approach is always complementary to domestic market structures. "We are never competing with domestic actors or their preferences," he said. "We build to facilitate domestic preferences." The foundation is developing a number of standards under this framework, including a Fuel Passport Standard, a Chain of Custody Standard, a Carbon Standard, a Residual Mix Standard and a Cross-Border Electricity Trade Standard, among others. Braslawsky said the goal is to provide a basis for everyone to communicate in the same language while allowing individual industries and companies with deep domain expertise to build their own standards on that foundation. He cited green aluminum as an example: producers in that sector can develop their own standard using the foundation's framework without waiting for a global agreement that may never materialize. From estimates to verified claims Both speakers pointed to the growing inadequacy of estimate-based sustainability reporting and the need for verified, traceable data. Braslawsky said life cycle assessments built on database averages must give way to attribute-based accounting based on real transaction data. "We are moving LCA from estimates to facts," he said. The result, he said, will be a more credible and defensible basis for sustainability claims â one based on facts rather than assumptions. Rosenheim applied the same logic to market activation: a stated desire to claim renewable energy is not meaningful unless backed by a verified energy attribute certificate. Demand alone, he said, is not sufficient â the claim must be substantiated. Rosenheim's remarks underscore the growing importance of cross-border REC market development in Southeast Asia, driven in large part by the global procurement obligations of Japanese companies. As supply chain sustainability requirements tighten and Science Based Targets initiative commitments expand, the demand for internationally recognized, government-aligned attribute certificates is expected to grow. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/102126-un-report-sets-out-pathway-to-return-to-15-c-warming-by-2100-after-overshoot</link><description>The world must cut greenhouse gas emissions by 18% within four years to limit the worst effects of climate change, and return warming levels to 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels by 2100 after overshooting this century, the UN warned on Oct. 21, with the pace of reductions now required exceeding targets set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The UN Environment Programme&amp;apos;s Emissions</description><title>UN report sets out pathway to return to 1.5 C warming by 2100 after overshoot</title><pubDate>21 October 2026 14:38:48 GMT</pubDate><author><name>James Burgess</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Coal, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Electric Power, Emissions, Carbon, Renewables October 21, 2026 UN report sets out pathway to return to 1.5 C warming by 2100 after overshoot By James Burgess Editor: Alisdair Bowles Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS 18% GHG emissions cut needed by 2030 vs 2025 Coal must fall 75% by 2035, phased out globally by 2040 Solar PV capacity growing 7 times faster than expected The world must cut greenhouse gas emissions by 18% within four years to limit the worst effects of climate change, and return warming levels to 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels by 2100 after overshooting this century, the UN warned on Oct. 21, with the pace of reductions now required exceeding targets set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The UN Environment Programme's Emissions Gap Report 2026 finds that global temperatures are now certain to exceed 1.5 C and lays out what it would take to minimize the overshoot and return to that threshold by the end of the century. The report's findings come as energy markets face mounting pressure from climate policy and the accelerating buildout of renewable power capacity. "Overshoot is not surrender," UN Secretary-General AntÃ³nio Guterres said in a statement. "We can still keep it as small and as short as possible â and bring temperatures back below 1.5 C by the end of the century." Under the report's "lowest possible" 1.5 C overshoot scenario, peak warming by mid-century would be capped at 1.7-1.8 C, with a roughly 50% chance of returning to 1.5 C by 2100. Achieving that outcome would require global greenhouse gas emissions to fall 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, all measured against 2025 levels, the UNEP said. Analysts at S&amp;P Global Energy said in a recent report that limiting global warming to 1.5 C this century was no longer possible, though a wide range of outcomes was possible under its mapped scenarios. In a base case, global GHG emissions are set to fall to just below 40 billion metric tons of CO2 equivalent by 2060, from around 54 billion mt in 2025. S&amp;P Global's Energy Scenarios project warming of 2.0-3.1 C by 2100. The cuts needed in the UNEP report imply average annual reduction rates of 5.7% between 2025 and 2035 â steeper than the approximately 5% annual rate called for in the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report pathways. By contrast, full implementation of countries' existing Nationally Determined Contributions would reduce emissions by only 5-8% by 2030 and 11-15% by 2035 relative to 2025 levels â a fraction of what the lowest overshoot scenario demands. New NDCs submitted since last year's report have made a negligible difference to those projections, the UNEP said. Fossil fuel demand To stay on the lowest overshoot pathway, the share of coal, oil and gas in total global energy supply would need to fall by at least 55%, 15% and 5% respectively by 2035 relative to 2025 levels, with far steeper reductions required by 2040 â at least 75%, 30% and 35%. Electricity generation from coal would need to fall by at least 75% by 2035 and be effectively phased out globally by 2040. Methane emissions, a key concern for the oil and gas sector, would need to be at least 25% lower than 2025 levels by 2035 and at least 40% lower by 2040. The UNEP warned that without urgent action, current policies would see warming reach 2.8 C this century â worse than last year's projections. The deterioration is attributed in part to the withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of historical emissions. Even the most optimistic scenario assessed, in which all countries' NDCs plus additional net-zero targets are fully achieved, would limit warming to only 2.1 C. Every five years of CO2 emissions at current levels pushes peak warming up by around 0.1 C, the UNEP said. Carbon removals The lowest possible overshoot scenario would also require the removal and permanent storage of roughly 320 gigatons of CO2 from the atmosphere over the course of this century â equivalent to approximately eight years of 2024's global CO2 emissions â though the report acknowledged that socioeconomic and technological challenges make achieving this uncertain. Despite the severity of the gap, the report highlights accelerating momentum in clean energy. Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, global renewable electricity capacity has grown three times faster than anticipated, with solar photovoltaic build-out increasing seven times faster than projected. Total energy supply from coal and oil has grown more slowly than earlier forecasts, and climate policies have cut emissions across multiple sectors and countries. More than 220 policy evaluations cited in the report show that electricity sector policies reduced emissions by an average of 9%, while carbon pricing instruments achieved reductions of 5-13% across sectors. Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, assessed nearest December EU ETS carbon allowances at â¬85.56/mt on Oct. 20. The UN report calls on nations to use the second global stocktake process to extend quantified climate goals to 2035 and 2040, and to replicate proven policy successes at scale. For renewable energy, meeting the lowest overshoot pathway would require at least tripling renewable electricity capacity by 2035 relative to 2025 and increasing that to 4.5 times by 2040, alongside reducing the primary energy intensity of GDP by at least 30% by 2035 and 40% by 2040. "Every additional fraction of a degree and additional year of warming above 1.5 C increases climate impacts and risks, such as the deadly floods, heatwaves and wildfires that have plagued many nations this year," UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said in a statement. "So, we must pull out all the stops to minimize peak warming and return to 1.5 C by the end of the century." US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/102126-indian-carbon-market-advances-verification-as-first-credit-issuance-nears</link><description>India&amp;apos;s carbon market is advancing through the verification of greenhouse gas emissions from obligated industrial entities, with carbon credit issuance expected as the next step, according to two carbon verifiers and a policy expert. The Bureau of Energy Efficiency, which administers India&amp;apos;s Carbon Credit Trading Scheme, published a list of 18 Accredited Carbon Verification Agencies empanelled</description><title>Indian carbon market advances verification as first credit issuance nears</title><pubDate>21 October 2026 15:50:48 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Ruchira Singh</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Metals &amp; Mining, Chemicals, Emissions, Carbon, Non-Ferrous, Solvents &amp; Intermediates October 21, 2026 Indian carbon market advances verification as first credit issuance nears By Ruchira Singh Editor: Alisdair Bowles Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS 490 entities undergo emissions verification Carbon Credit issuance expected next Among largest emissions trading schemes India's carbon market is advancing through the verification of greenhouse gas emissions from obligated industrial entities, with carbon credit issuance expected as the next step, according to two carbon verifiers and a policy expert. The Bureau of Energy Efficiency, which administers India's Carbon Credit Trading Scheme, published a list of 18 Accredited Carbon Verification Agencies empanelled under the scheme Oct. 16, as seen on its website. "The current verification deadline is Oct. 31," Kirtesh Bagarecha, accredited energy auditor and CEO of Recon Energy Consultancy, one of BEE's verifiers, told Platts, a part of S&amp;P Global Energy. "Following the completion of verification activities, the audit reports will undergo detailed evaluation by the BEE, followed by the necessary regulatory procedures and issuance of Carbon Credit Certificates." According to Bagarecha, because this is the first year of CCTS implementation, additional time may be required to complete the entire process. Recon is focused on emissions from the cement and textile units in the compliance market. India has so far set binding greenhouse gas emissions-intensity targets for around 490 obligated entities across several industrial sectors under the compliance mechanism of its CCTS, according to a March government statement. Initially, the government set targets for 282 entities in aluminum, cement, chlor-alkali, and pulp and paper in October 2025, before adding 208 entities in petroleum refining, petrochemicals, textiles and secondary aluminum in January 2026. Verification underway India issued the draft National Carbon Market plan in 2022 and has been engaged in multiple consultations with the industry. Government officials projected that commodity exchanges could start trading carbon credits by early 2027. Arunabha Ghosh, an independent energy and climate policy expert, told Platts that implementation was progressing, with the issuance of carbon credits expected to be the next major step before trading begins. "The CCTS is now live with binding targets... companies have now filed their compliance reports. The carbon credits are expected to be issued later this month," Ghosh said. "The work on strengthening Measurement, Reporting and Verification â the backbone of the scheme â will continue." Bhavesh Vasiyani, manager, energy transition, sustainability services, South Asia Region at Bureau Veritas (India) Pvt. Ltd., another BEE-appointed verifier, told Platts the emissions-intensity targets currently being verified will be reviewed by BEE. "Currently, the targets are being verified. Once it is completed, these reports will be reviewed by BEE. There will be multiple filters of verification," Vasiyani said. Bureau Veritas, operating in both the compliance and offset markets, has been accredited to verify emissions of companies in cement, iron and steel, petrochemical and petroleum refinery, according to BEE. UK recognition Efforts to strengthen the CCTS's measurement, reporting and verification framework are also continuing as India's carbon-pricing system gains international recognition. "The UK recognizing India's CCTS as a qualifying carbon pricing mechanism has given it some boost and an equivalency has to be established," Ghosh said. "Indian exporters can claim carbon pricing relief from January." The UK recently recognized India's CCTS as a qualifying overseas carbon-pricing scheme under its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which takes effect on Jan. 1, 2027. That means UK importers of eligible Indian goods may claim carbon-price relief for an effective carbon price already borne under the CCTS, subject to the UK's evidence and verification requirements, according to Ghosh. India's domestic CCTS transitions older efficiency programs, such as the Perform, Achieve and Trade scheme, into a national carbon trading system, UN Environment Program's Emissions Gap Report 2026 issued Oct. 21 noted. "It is set to initially cover over 700 million mtCO2e, placing India among the world's largest emissions trading schemes." US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/metals/102126-lme-week-aluminum-sector-sees-power-costs-key-to-riding-electrification-trends</link><description>As industry leaders gather in London for one of the world&amp;apos;s largest metals events, S&amp;amp;P Global Energy Platts presents the LME Week thought leadership series, examining the forces redefining global metals markets and shaping the outlook for 2027 and beyond. This feature examines how producers are responding to rising aluminum demand through capacity expansions and recycling investments amid an</description><title>LME Week: Aluminum sector sees power costs key to riding electrification trends</title><pubDate>21 October 2026 01:01:27 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Katya Bouckley</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Metals &amp; Mining, Energy Transition, Electric Power, Non-Ferrous, Ferrous, Renewables October 21, 2026 LME Week: Aluminum sector sees power costs key to riding electrification trends By Katya Bouckley Editor: Giselle Rodriguez Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Power costs critical for aluminum expansion Global output drops 1% amid GCC disruptions Recycling capacity surge makes scrap strategic As industry leaders gather in London for one of the world's largest metals events, S&amp;P Global Energy Platts presents the LME Week thought leadership series, examining the forces redefining global metals markets and shaping the outlook for 2027 and beyond. This feature examines how producers are responding to rising aluminum demand through capacity expansions and recycling investments amid an increasingly fragmented global market. The global aluminum market enters 2027 with stronger fundamentals. Producers are confident in long-term demand, driven by grid expansion and e-mobility, among other electrification and energy transition trends. However, industry players in this highly fragmented market remain sensitive to volatility and uncertainty in energy costs, trade regulations and the geopolitical landscape. Hydro Extrusions, a unit of Norwegian energy and aluminum company Norsk Hydro, is "seeing strong long-term trends driven by electrification, renewable energy, copper substitution and circularity," its executive vice president, Paul Warton, told Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy. "The underlying role of aluminum continues to strengthen, as grid expansion, mobility, buildings and infrastructure all require lightweight, durable and recyclable materials." McKinsey &amp; Company expects global aluminum demand to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 2% from 2025 to 2035, underpinned by the build-out of data centers, which the consultancy estimated Oct. 13 require 16 mt of aluminum per megawatt and could account for 1.1% of total global aluminum demand by 2030. Greece's Metlen Energy &amp; Metals told Platts it is responding to the uplift in demand by investing in alumina capacity and aluminum recycling. The opportunity is significant, but producers are also bracing for continued volatility in energy costs, carbon regulation, geopolitical tensions and, not least, tariffs. Global output slips A steep upward revision of US Section 232 tariffs had triggered 6% [to over 8%] spikes in aluminum prices in 2025, breaking a decade of unified global pricing, McKinsey said. That tariff shock spilled over into 2026, where it was amplified by the conflict in the Middle East. Ensued intermittent closures of the Strait of Hormuz and operation suspensions and cuts at regional smelters slashed the Gulf Cooperation Council's output by over 1.4 million metric tons. Consequently, global primary production fell 1% to 54.8 million mt between January and September. The supply disruption drove London Metal Exchange prices to a peak of $3,753/mt in September, up 25% from the start of the year. Compensatory trade shifts have been significant, though. In the first eight months of 2026, China's unwrought aluminum exports jumped 57% year over year to over half a million tons, while Indonesia doubled its exports to 700,000 mt, according to S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence's Global Trade Analytics Suite. And Russia ramped up its primary production by 7.7% in January-August, Rosstat said in September. The offsets have pulled the LME benchmark back to $3,080/mt in October, close to the values last seen in February. Financial services company StoneX expects LME prices to hold above the $3,000/mt line through the 2026 year-end, before coming under pressure of increasing supply in 2027. "In our view, the support is genuinely fundamental rather than sentiment-driven ... The market is running a deficit ... and ... visible inventories sit at extremes," Natalie Scott-Gray, Stone-X's senior metals analyst, said in an Oct. 16 note. She added that LME aluminum stocks âat 238,125 mt as of Oct. 14â are at their lowest since 1990, and global stock coverage has fallen to 42 days of consumption, a level not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis. Depleted inventories are keeping regional premiums elevated despite benchmarks receding to their pre-Iran war levels, with mid-October Rotterdam and US Midwest premiums of $560-$600/mt and $2,390/mt, respectively, sitting $200/mt and $100/mt above their February levels, according to Platts assessments. Although domestic premiums have soared since the US Section 232 tariff on aluminum imports first increased to 25% in March 2025 and doubled to 50% in June the same year, North America's primary aluminum output in the first nine months of 2026 was stagnant at 2.9 million mt, International Aluminium Institute data showed. In 2025, the US produced 664,000 mt of primary and over 2.6 million mt of secondary aluminum, according to the US Geological Survey. Meanwhile, the country continues to import 84% of its primary aluminum needs, SAFE's Center for Strategic Industrial Materials (C-SIM) said Oct. 7. Brussels-based industry association European Aluminium told Platts that the EU produced 1.2 million mt of primary and 4.4 million mt of secondary aluminum in 2025. The bloc's imports of primary metal amounted to 3.2 million mt the same year, according to GTAS, meeting over 70% of the demand. Capacity rollouts However, under a high-supply pipeline scenario, North America could reach 28% self-sufficiency in refined aluminum, while Europe is projected to hit 26%, according to McKinsey. A very wide gap between the West and China's aluminum prices has already prompted 2.5 million mt of primary aluminum smelter restarts and expansions worldwide, Platts estimates. Over 600,000 mt of capacity was reactivated in Europe (Slovakia, Spain and Iceland), alongside 285,000 mt/year in additions in North America, with Century Aluminum and Rio Tinto completing their expansions in South Carolina and Quebec, and Magnitude 7 Metals restarting its Missouri smelter. However, sustaining capacity in Europe will require competitive and predictable energy, Hydro's Warton said. SAFE's C-SIM warned Oct. 7 that, without long-term access to affordable power, US primary aluminum capacity could continue to decline. Given that smelting aluminum consumes 13-16 megawatt-hours of electricity per metric ton â accounting for 40% of production costs â a new smelter would require decades of electricity priced near $40/MWh, while the US' industrial rates exceed $80/MWh, the think tank said. Elsewhere, rapid growth is taking place in Vietnam, Angola and, most notably, Indonesia, which is adding 1.48 million mt of capacity in 2026 alone. In their Oct. 14 outlook, S&amp;P Global Energy CERA analysts see global primary aluminum supply being 1 million mt short of demand this year, but expect the deficit to dwindle to 179,000 mt in 2027, unless stronger-than-expected supply growth pushes the market into a surplus. StoneX, which estimates this year's refined aluminum demand rising 1.6% to 75.36 million mt, exceeding production by 703,000 mt, forecasts the market to flip into a hefty 1.15 million mt oversupply next year, given new capacity and all the ex-China restarts, including in the GCC, where the UAE's Emirates Global Aluminium expects to return to full production in Q1 2027. Recycling accelerates In China, primary capacity remains capped at 45 million mt/year, but the country aims to ramp up its secondary aluminum production to 19 million-20 million mt/year by 2030, from today's 15 million mt/year, as part of its push toward 25 million mt/year of non-ferrous metals recovered through recycling. Outside China, secondary aluminum capacity has increased this year by at least 325,000 mt, comprised of Speira's new furnace in Germany, RevoCast's casting complex in Canada, and EGA's Al Taweelah plant in the UAE. Beyond 2026, aluminum recycling in the US could expand by 600,000 mt/year after Novelis and Aluminum Dynamics launch their new facilities, while expansions by Metlen, Hydro and EGA should boost scrap-smelting in Europe. The number of new projects and restarts, alongside Alcoa's $5.5-billion acquisition of South32's aluminum assets, signals the industry's view of long-term prospects as solid. McKinsey said that as new and planned capacities boost demand for feedstock, aluminum scrap is set to become increasingly contested. China, as the largest importer of aluminum scrap on par with India, has been applying 91% and higher purity thresholds for scrap imports for a few years to incentivize processing domestically, but the market has yet to adapt to a looming bottleneck â a non-OECD export ban on metal waste that the EU will implement in May 2027 and that is set to affect three-quarters of its 1.27 million mt aluminum scrap exports. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/refined-products/102026-shipowners-warn-fuel-transition-could-slip-beyond-2030-as-methanol-demand-remains-uncertain</link><description>Regulatory uncertainty and limited shipbuilding capacity could delay the wider adoption of alternative marine fuels beyond 2030, shipping executives said Oct. 20, while orders for methanol-capable vessels may not translate directly into demand for the fuel. Speaking at the tenth Annual International Shipping Forum in Pudong, Shanghai, Safe Bulkers president Loukas Barmparis said ambiguity over</description><title>Shipowners warn fuel transition could slip beyond 2030 as methanol demand remains uncertain</title><pubDate>20 October 2026 10:15:43 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Mia Pei</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Maritime &amp; Shipping, Chemicals, LNG, Energy Transition, Hydrogen October 20, 2026 Shipowners warn fuel transition could slip beyond 2030 as methanol demand remains uncertain By Mia Pei Editor: Adithya Ram Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Shipyard bottlenecks push fuel shift to 2035 Methanol-ready vessels may not use the fuel Fuel costs dictate actual alternative use Regulatory uncertainty and limited shipbuilding capacity could delay the wider adoption of alternative marine fuels beyond 2030, shipping executives said Oct. 20, while orders for methanol-capable vessels may not translate directly into demand for the fuel. Speaking at the tenth Annual International Shipping Forum in Pudong, Shanghai, Safe Bulkers president Loukas Barmparis said ambiguity over decarbonization rules and heavily booked shipyards would delay the transition, pointing to a period after 2030 toward 2035. He described maritime decarbonization as "somehow stalled," with progress currently concentrated on improving the energy efficiency of existing ships and newer vessel designs. Uncertainty over the International Maritime Organization's decisions had held back ordering before prompting owners to choose conventional vessels, said Dario Bocchetti, Grimaldi Group's head of energy-saving, research and design, and ship design. Similarly, Pacific Carriers Limited CEO and managing director Hor Weng Yew said owners could focus on improving fuel efficiency while weighing longer-term fuel decisions. "Making an irreversible commitment when the fuel pathways, infrastructure, and economics are still evolving... I think that's tough," Hor said. However, owners could retrofit ships and work with charterers to improve efficiency without waiting for a final fuel pathway, he said. "That's something shipowners can very well do, very much in their control." Orders may not translate to demand Meanwhile, dual-fuel vessels, such as new methanol-capable orders, may not ensure that a new ship will operate entirely on methanol, Bocchetti added. Fuel costs and logistics would determine actual use, while producers need demand from more than a handful of owners to support supply growth. "Nevertheless, we have to start it; otherwise, we will never do it," he said. DNV said more than 294 methanol-capable vessels were on order globally as of August 2026, making methanol the second-largest alternative-fuel technology in the orderbook after LNG, based on its latest Maritime Forecast to 2050, released in August. The figure stood at 991 for LNG-capable vessels, 42 ammonia-capable, and 25 hydrogen-capable vessels. The forecast puts shipping's low-greenhouse-gas fuel demand, covering low-GHG fuels collectively, at 4 millionâ22 million mt of oil equivalent in 2030, depending on regulatory outcomes. DNV noted that scaling production depends on confidence that demand will materialize. It also said the existing fleet and orderbook would largely determine which fuels shipping can consume in 2030. Marine Plus president and CEO Dimitris Vranopoulos said fuel supply and trading patterns would continue to constrain owners' investment in dual-fuel vessels. "Even post-2030, it will be quite difficult and challenging," Vranopoulos said, adding that "everything has to be synchronized." Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, assessed Singapore low-carbon methanol at $1,040/mt Oct. 19, unchanged from the prior session, while low-carbon methanol FOB Shanghai was also assessed stable day over day at $815/mt on thin trade. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2026/10/electrification-advocates-aga-at-odds-over-heat-pumps-role-in-affordability-106806976</link><description>Heat pumps made up 58% of space-heating equipment shipped in the first half of 2026, according to the Building Decarbonization Coalition, but the American Gas Association says more customers prefer natural gas furnaces.</description><title>Electrification advocates, AGA at odds over heat pumps&amp;apos; role in affordability</title><pubDate>15 October 2026 11:48:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Parker Leipzig</name></author><content><![CDATA[ 15 Oct, 2026 Electrification advocates, AGA at odds over heat pumps' role in affordability By Parker Leipzig Heat pumps are being adopted in greater numbers to meet consumer concerns about energy affordability and take advantage of policy decisions, according to a group that advocates for electrifying heating systems, though natural gas utility advocates argue that their fuel is the most cost-effective and reliable way to address rising energy costs. An Oct. 6 report from the Building Decarbonization Coalition (BDC), a nonprofit that advocates for electrifying heating systems, said heat pumps made up 58% of space-heating equipment shipped in the US in the first half of 2026, matching the record from the first half of 2024, despite last year's expiration of the US Internal Revenue Service Section 25C heat pump tax credit. An electric heat pump can keep a building warm or cold by moving heat in or out. The 25C tax credit, also called the energy efficient home improvement credit, allowed homeowners to qualify for up to $2,000 per year for qualified heat pumps, water heaters, biomass stoves or biomass boilers, if the equipment was placed in service before Dec. 31, 2025. The credit was eliminated following the enactment of Republican-backed budget reconciliation legislation in July 2025. BDC researchers used data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute, and an analysis of bills introduced into state legislatures to conduct their report. The report found that heat pumps remain on track to match or exceed their best year of shipments in 2026. It highlighted jurisdictions, such as Washington, DC, New York City and the state of New York, that received court decisions upholding all-electric new construction policies. The BDC said the developments "provided another sign that state and local electrification efforts continue to advance." However, gas ban opponents saw a win with a lawsuit challenging policies in Colorado and the city of Denver that discourage natural gas use in existing buildings. Heat pump adoption vs. gas usage Kevin Carbonnier, associate director of analytics at the BDC, told Platts that many factors drove the rise in heat pump adoption, "including government policies, the development of the heat pump market, lower operating costs, and their comfort and other performance advantages over fossil-fuel furnaces." Platts is part of S&amp;P Global Energy. While some policy efforts are increasing heat pump adoption, Mike Henchen, a building electrification analyst at clean energy-focused research firm RMI, said the real drivers behind heat pumps' gains are technological improvements and shifts in customer preferences. "The trend toward electrification has been playing out for decades, and more American households than ever are heating with electricity," Henchen said. "New construction shows where the market is headed: 63% of homes built in 2025 were electrically heated, up from less than half in 2019. We expect a continued trend of clean heating technologies being adopted by millions of households across the US." The American Gas Association (AGA) rejected the notion that more consumers prefer heat pumps. In a March 2026 building-for-efficiency analysis, the trade group for natural gas utilities found that about 75% of new single-family homes opt for higher-efficiency natural gas heating equipment models. Additionally, the AGA said that in moderate-to-cold climates, customers prefer gas to electric heat pumps by a 4-to-1 margin. The AGA used data from the US Department of Energy, the US Energy Information Administration and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to conduct its analysis. Richard Meyer, AGA vice president of energy markets, analysis and standards, said gas bills are expected to decline this winter compared with last winter. "I think there is a clear agreement that lower natural gas prices and possibly the effect of a slightly milder winter in certain areas can lead to a reduction in consumer heating bills and gas utility bills this winter," Meyer said. "That is not true for all other fuels, including electric and fuel oil, where we see possibly other trends emerging depending on where you are in the country." The AGA's winter heating outlook, published Sept. 17, projects a strong US gas supply and mild conditions due to the El NiÃ±o weather pattern, both of which should reduce US wholesale gas prices. The EIA lowered its outlook for 2027 Henry Hub gas prices in its monthly "Short-Term Energy Outlook" released Oct. 6. The outlook trimmed its full-year 2027 Henry Hub gas spot price forecast by 12 cents from the previous month's estimate to $3.16/million British thermal units. Policy impacts on heat pump adoption The BDC's analysis of state legislative activity found that 41 decarbonization bills have been passed so far this year. Kristin Bagdanov, associate director of research at the BDC, said the "center of gravity" in building decarbonization bills is shifting from a focus solely on climate policy to affordability, utility economics and mainstream market adoption. "And so we're seeing that both in the types of bills being passed that are affecting not just the technology per se or not just about greenhouse gas emissions, but about the systems in which those things exist that are causing energy to become more and more expensive," Bagdanov said. The AGA's Meyer said the organization takes issue with decarbonization policies that restrict natural gas use or otherwise create barriers for energy consumers. "If you're removing the option of the direct use of natural gas from homes and businesses, then you're removing the most affordable home heating option â and often business heating option â from many homes and businesses," Meyer said. "And so ... keeping these choices on the table is an affordability strategy." Bagdanov said heating and other home systems need to be addressed holistically to realize all the benefits. "And that means at the legislative level and the regulatory level that they need to be addressing ways to break down those silos and do that integrated planning to think of the long-term energy future to ensure that energy bills are affordable," Bagdanov said. Premium Content Log in to the Capital IQ Pro platform to continue exploring Exclusive content like the article above is available to our subscribers on S&amp;P Capital IQ Pro. Not a subscriber? Let's connect to discuss how Capital IQ Pro can fit into your organization's workflow. Log in to Capital IQ Pro Connect with an expert ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2026/10/glencore-deal-government-support-drive-pe-investment-in-critical-raw-materials-106750447</link><description>Global private equity and venture capital investment in critical raw materials reached $9.43 billion in the first nine months of 2026, boosted by a large deal and growing government support to de-risk investment in the sector.</description><title>Glencore deal, government support drive PE investment in critical raw materials</title><pubDate>15 October 2026 08:46:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Noreen Izabel Jazul</name><name>Richa Noriega</name><name>Neel Hiteshbhai Bharucha</name></author><content><![CDATA[ 15 Oct, 2026 Glencore deal, government support drive PE investment in critical raw materials By Noreen Izabel Jazul, Richa Noriega, and Neel Hiteshbhai Bharucha Global private equity and venture capital investment in critical raw materials totaled $9.43 billion in the first nine months of 2026, surpassing the full-year 2025 total of $1.34 billion, according to S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence data. A single deal, Glencore PLC's proposed $9 billion sale of a 40% stake in Mutanda Mining Sarl and Kamoto Copper Co. Sarl in the Democratic Republic of Congo to the Orion Critical Mineral Consortium, which includes Orion Resource Partners (USA) LP, accounted for the surge in deal value in 2026. Government support, particularly through mechanisms such as offtake agreements, price floors, development finance and sovereign co-investment, is driving more capital in the sector, said Jason Holt, managing partner at Orion Industrial Ventures. "[These] are helping to de-risk major transactions in ways that were not possible a few years ago." Offtake agreements secure buyers for future production, while price floors guarantee minimum prices for output. The US, for example, was supporting more than $30 billion in critical minerals projects through letters of interest, investments, loans and other forms of assistance as of February, according to State Department data. The department said the support helped mobilize private capital for mining, processing and recycling projects in the US and overseas. In November 2025, ReElement Technologies Corp. announced that the expansion of its recycling and processing capabilities was supported by an $80 million direct loan from the Office of Strategic Capital, an office within the US Department of Defense. Two months later, in January 2026, the company received a $200 million investment from Transition Equity Partners LLC, according to Market Intelligence data. The report includes companies engaged in the exploration, mining, extraction, processing, refining and commercialization of rare earth elements, cobalt, nickel, tungsten, lithium, graphite and other strategically important materials from primary and secondary sources. It also includes companies that manufacture, process or market related concentrates, specialty chemicals, industrial-grade raw materials, alloys and refined metals. + Download a spreadsheet with data featured in this story. + View trends in private equity investment in metals and mining. + Stay up to date on the latest private equity headlines. The US attracts capital The US accounted for 28.5% of global private equity investment in critical raw materials announced between 2021 and the end of September 2026, with cumulative investment in the US reaching $4.4 billion, according to Market Intelligence data. It was the second-largest market globally by cumulative deal value. Industrial policy, national security concerns and long-term demand from electrification and advanced manufacturing are driving investment in the US critical raw materials sector, said Francesca Price, senior principal analyst at S&amp;P Global Energy Horizons. "The combination of an unusually strong level of public sector support and growing concern over China's supply-chain dominance has materially improved the risk-reward profile for US projects," Price said. Concerns over China's dominance have increased investor interest in rare earths and graphite, particularly because China controls much of their processing capacity, Price said. Other US critical minerals that continue to attract investment include lithium, because of its importance to electrification, according to Price. R3 Lithium Inc., an operator of a lithium recycling and refining facility in the US, secured a $15 million investment from Axial Partners Ltd., Integral GlobalTech Partners Corp. and TDK Ventures Inc. in July. Copper offers a significant opportunity Copper presents a significant opportunity over the long term, given rising demand from electrification, grid expansion and data center development, said Brian Greeley, CFO for critical minerals at private equity firm Appian Capital Advisory LLP. New copper supply in the global market, however, is constrained by declining ore grades and lengthy project development timelines. "Closing that gap [between demand and supply] will require substantial new investment, and we expect long-term investors to play a growing role in funding it," Greeley said. Copper's investment appeal extended beyond the US, as Africa, a major global copper-producing region, accounted for 95.5% of private equity investment value in critical raw materials in 2026, according to Market Intelligence data. Mutanda Mining and Kamoto Copper Co., the targets of the largest private-equity-backed critical raw materials deal announced through the end of September 2026, are based in Africa, making the region the largest market by private equity investment value in 2026. Africa's entire market share is attributable to this single transaction; excluding it, the region would have no recorded private equity investment. Africa's abundant geological resources and the growing focus among governments and domestic industrial companies on developing local value chains are helping drive investment in the region, said Holt. "We are also seeing growing interest in battery materials and specialty chemicals in Africa, creating opportunities for partnerships and new technologies. A recent trip to the region reinforced our view that there is a clear ambition to move further down the value chain," Holt added. Holt also expects investment momentum to continue in Latin America, where several countries recently signed a joint declaration on strategic minerals and regional integration. Argentina-based Alkemio secured $2 million from investors, including Dalus Capital, Grid Exponential, VU Venture Partners, Amplifica Capital, Dragones Venture Partners and VX Ventures, to support the development of next-generation rare-earth refining technologies. Investment in critical raw material refining, separation, manufacturing and recycling is expected to increase over the longer term as companies work to close strategic supply-chain gaps, Price said. Premium Content Log in to the Capital IQ Pro platform to continue exploring Exclusive content like the article above is available to our subscribers on S&amp;P Capital IQ Pro. Not a subscriber? Let's connect to discuss how Capital IQ Pro can fit into your organization's workflow. Log in to Capital IQ Pro Connect with an expert ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2026/10/private-equity-investment-in-drone-tech-surges-as-manufacturing-scales-up-106892028</link><description>Private equity and venture capital investment in drone technology is set to surpass records, with transaction value totaling $13.16 billion in the first nine months of 2026.</description><title>Private equity investment in drone tech surges as manufacturing scales up</title><pubDate>14 October 2026 09:20:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Karl Angelo Vidal</name><name>Shambhavi Gupta</name></author><content><![CDATA[ 14 Oct, 2026 Private equity investment in drone tech surges as manufacturing scales up By Karl Angelo Vidal and Shambhavi Gupta Global private equity and venture capital investment in drone technology has already reached a record in 2026 as the sector shifts from technology development to rapid manufacturing scale-up. Transaction value in the sector totaled $13.16 billion in the first nine months of 2026, surpassing the $7.28 billion annual total for 2025, according to S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence data. There were 176 deals in the first nine months of 2026, down from 192 in full year 2025. Drone technology companies design, manufacture, or manage unmanned aerial vehicles or unmanned aircraft systems, used for applications such as defense, surveillance, photography and videography, delivery services, agriculture and rescue operations. The surge in investment capital reflects the drone industry's shift to manufacturing scale-up from technology development, according to sources. "This is no longer initial novel technology. We're now talking about how many of these you can build and how quickly you can build them. That requires a lot of capital," said Drew Wandzilak, principal for US strategic tech fund at Alumni Ventures Group LLC. The conflict in Ukraine was a catalyst for this shift, demonstrating the strategic value of high-volume, low-cost drone systems in modern warfare. Wandzilak said that using multimillion-dollar interceptor missiles to take down $100-$1,000 drones creates a cost imbalance in the absence of a low-cost, scalable counter-drone system. "You're just losing that battle of cost asymmetry," he said. The rapid advancement of AI has been crucial in making smaller drones as capable as their larger predecessors, said Jon Lusczakoski, partner at AE Industrial Partners LP. "A lot of the smaller drones now are mostly autonomous, if not fully autonomous. And a lot of that's being done with AI," Lusczakoski said, adding that capabilities such as navigation in areas where GPS is unavailable and coordination of up to 100 drones operating in unison are now powered by AI. + Download a spreadsheet with data in this story. + Read about global private equity deals in the third quarter. + Catch up on private equity's aging asset backlog. Despite the challenging exit environment, private equity continues to invest in drone technology in anticipation of optimal valuations upon an IPO exit. "How they're thinking about future exits is largely on the public market side, where valuations are even higher. They're getting comfortable doing private investments at, call it, high teens to 20x EBITDA multiples, but then looking at the public markets and seeing them trade at 30x to infinite multiples," Lusczakoski said. Largest deals The US secured the largest amount of private equity investment in 2026, with $9.57 billion across 45 transactions, accounting for nearly 73% of the total value. Two of the largest transactions in drone technology involved California-based companies. Anduril Industries Inc. raised $5 billion in a series H round, bringing its valuation to $61 billion. Andreessen Horowitz LLC and Thrive Capital Partners Inc. co-led the round. Shield AI Inc. secured $2.25 billion in a series G round, bringing its valuation to $12.7 billion. Advent International LP and the strategic investment group of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. co-led the round, with existing investors including Snowpoint Ventures, Innovation X Advisors LLC, Riot Ventures Management LLC, Disruptive Technology Advisers LLC and Apandion also participating. Blackstone Inc. is investing $500 million in preferred equity financing and has committed an additional $250 million delayed-draw facility. Germany pulled in the second-largest private equity transaction value during the period, totaling $1.79 billion. The UK followed with $674.1 million and China with $588 million. Premium Content Log in to the Capital IQ Pro platform to continue exploring Exclusive content like the article above is available to our subscribers on S&amp;P Capital IQ Pro. Not a subscriber? Let's connect to discuss how Capital IQ Pro can fit into your organization's workflow. Log in to Capital IQ Pro Connect with an expert ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2026/10/global-private-equity-exit-volume-falls-17-4-in-q3-as-valuation-gap-persists-106574498</link><description>Global private equity and venture capital exit volume fell 17.4% year over year to 724 transactions in the third quarter as buyers and sellers remained divided over valuations and the durability of earnings.</description><title>Global private equity exit volume falls 17.4% in Q3 as valuation gap persists</title><pubDate>08 October 2026 09:01:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Noreen Izabel Jazul</name><name>Neel Hiteshbhai Bharucha</name></author><content><![CDATA[ 08 Oct, 2026 Global private equity exit volume falls 17.4% in Q3 as valuation gap persists By Noreen Izabel Jazul and Neel Hiteshbhai Bharucha Global private equity and venture capital exit volume fell 17.4% year over year in the third quarter, declining to 724 transactions from 876, according to S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence data. On a quarter-over-quarter comparison, total exit volume fell 4.1% from 755. Total exit value stood at $227.17 billion, up 5.4% year over year but down 1.8% quarter over quarter. In the first nine months ended Sept. 30, total exit volume stood at 2,304, down 6.0% year over year from 2,452 in the same period of 2025, while total exit value rose 55.6% to $918.39 billion from $590.10 billion. The valuation gap between buyers and sellers remains the core bottleneck for private equity exits, said Brendon Parry, head of private markets at asset manager TIFF Investment Management. Disagreements also extend to the durability of target company earnings, particularly in the software sector, he added. "Every software company now must answer 'disruptor or disrupted?' before anyone discusses price. A lower price doesn't necessarily resolve uncertainty about the durability of the business model," Parry said. The AI impact AI is creating uncertainty for software companies. Tools such as Claude Cowork and Claude Code are causing investors to reassess the future of some software-as-a-service companies, said Louis Lehot, a partner in the private equity and venture capital practice at law firm Foley &amp; Lardner LLP. "Unless the business is genuinely AI-first, has a system of record, and has single-sourced proprietary data, buyers are fewer and further between," Lehot said. Software is not the only sector affected by AI, as buyers are increasingly favoring companies with lower exposure to AI-driven obsolescence, including businesses in the information technology and industrials sectors. + Download a spreadsheet with data featured in this story. + View trends in venture capital rounds of funding in Q3 2026. + Stay up to date on the latest private equity headlines. Information technology and industrials recorded the highest number of exits in the first nine months ended Sept. 30, with 668 and 410 transactions, respectively, according to Market Intelligence data. "Buyers are looking for certainty, stability, and growth prospects. [These] sectors demonstrate these characteristics particularly when compared to other sectors with greater risk of AI disruption," said Peter White, principal, at private equity firm GenNx360 Capital Partners. IT services, driven by enterprise demand for AI implementation, cloud computing and cybersecurity, have been attracting buyer interest. Industrial and specialty services, including testing, inspection and maintenance, are also acquisition targets because these businesses generate recurring revenue with lower capital intensity, White said. Top private equity exits Buyer interest in AI was evident among the largest exits through Sept. 30, led by the $250 billion sale of X.AI LLC to Space Exploration Technologies Corp. The selling investor group included Sequoia Capital Operations LLC, Lightspeed Management Co. LLC, Valor Management LLC and StepStone Group Inc. Hugging Face Inc., another AI company, was acquired by NVIDIA Corp. from an investor group that included Intel Capital Corp., Qualcomm Ventures LLC, Lux Capital Management LLC and Betaworks Ventures Management LLC. Both exits were completed through trade sales. Trade sales dominate Trade sales remain the preferred exit route, accounting for 548 exits, or 75.7% of total exit volume, in the third quarter, according to Market Intelligence data. Corporate strategic buyers can often realize synergies that financial sponsors cannot, enabling them to justify higher valuations, said Charlie Newman, managing director at management consulting firm Protiviti UK. "They also tend to offer greater execution certainty and a simpler transaction process than public market exits," Newman said. General partner-led secondary sales and initial public offerings are gaining momentum, with 160 secondary sales and 16 IPOs in the third quarter, up from 149 and 14, respectively, in the previous quarter, according to Market Intelligence data. The rise in sponsor-to-sponsor transactions reflects the substantial capital available to private equity buyers and their increasing willingness to support longer-term value-creation plans, Newman said. Exits through IPOs are showing signs of recovery amid stabilizing equity markets and renewed investor confidence in growth-oriented businesses, Newman added. Year over year, the number of IPO exits in the third quarter rose to 16 from 13, according to Market Intelligence data. IPO exits remain concentrated among very large companies, however, and are still less accessible to middle-market and upper-middle-market private equity-backed businesses, said Alan Goldfarb, managing partner at private equity firm Orangewood Partners LLC. Pressure from limited partners to receive distributions is expected to drive exits. "Fundraising is pacing down meaningfully, and pressure to return capital ahead of the next fundraise should encourage more pragmatic selling decisions," Parry said. Premium Content Log in to the Capital IQ Pro platform to continue exploring Exclusive content like the article above is available to our subscribers on S&amp;P Capital IQ Pro. Not a subscriber? Let's connect to discuss how Capital IQ Pro can fit into your organization's workflow. Log in to Capital IQ Pro Connect with an expert ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2026/10/private-equity-leans-more-heavily-on-earnouts-in-exit-deals-106500734</link><description>Earnout provisions may help push exit deals across the finish line, but private equity sellers rarely get the full payout.</description><title>Private equity leans more heavily on earnouts in exit deals</title><pubDate>05 October 2026 09:40:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Dylan Thomas</name><name>Shambhavi Gupta</name></author><content><![CDATA[ 05 Oct, 2026 Private equity leans more heavily on earnouts in exit deals By Dylan Thomas and Shambhavi Gupta The number of private equity earnout deal structures has hit the highest level in at least five years, as managers aim to narrow the buyer-seller divide and close exit deals. The value of global private equity and venture capital exits featuring earnout provisions totaled $77.22 billion this year as of Sept. 28, surpassing any full-year total recorded since 2020, according to S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence data. Sales of private equity portfolio companies accounted for 42.5% of all earnout deal value through nearly three full quarters of 2026, their highest share since at least 2020. When private equity agrees to an earnout in the sale of a portfolio company, it gets only a portion of the agreed-upon purchase price at closing. The buyer agrees to make additional payments if the company hits future performance targets. Private equity managers generally prefer a clean break with a portfolio company that allows them to return profits to investors and move on to the next deal, said Jalpit Amin, a partner in law firm White &amp; Case LLP's global M&amp;A practice. But they're increasingly relying on earnouts to close exits. A host of factors, including the "unrealistic valuations" private equity managers paid several years ago to acquire businesses they're now ready to sell, as well as the threat of AI disruption looming over industries like software, are making it harder to achieve planned-on valuations at exit, he said. "Earnouts are the easiest way to bridge that valuation gap, even though everyone ultimately ends up fighting [over them] down the road," Amin said. Rolling the dice Earnouts were a feature in 24% of private-target M&amp;A transactions in 2025, up from 17% of deals during the 2014â2022 period, according to M&amp;A advisory SRS Acquiom Inc. The data excludes deals in the life sciences industry, where earnouts are much more common due to issues such as regulation and commercialization of new medical developments. While valuation gaps remain a primary motivation for earnouts, Kip Wallen, a senior director at SRS Acquiom, said buyers seem to be turning to earnouts for "risk abatement" against an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop. "The uncertainty in the market makes it so difficult to value these targets," Wallen said. "How do you value a target that's susceptible to tariffs that are constantly being challenged in the courts? Or if you've got a company subject to diesel prices [or] any sort of petroleum or oil price fluctuation?" Earnouts spread some of that risk to sellers, who rarely get a full payout. According to SRS Acquiom research, while sellers got some additional payments in more than half of deals with earnout provisions, buyers ultimately paid just over 21% of the maximum earnout value. + Download a file of raw data from this story. + Read about the outlook for GP stakes exits. + Catch up on the top pension fund allocators to infrastructure That's part of the reason private equity sellers are reluctant to rely on earnouts, said M&amp;A attorney Jeremy Levy of Troutman Pepper Locke LLP. More common is a "sponsor rollover," where the exiting fund manager agrees to retain a minority stake, lowering the purchase price for the buyer. "When a sponsor is exiting a platform, their objective is to return capital to their limited partners. They want as much cash as they can get all at once," Levy said. Largest PE earnout deals The health care sector accounted for eight of the 10 largest private equity or venture capital portfolio company sales to feature an earnout component this year through Sept. 28, according to S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence data. Topping the list was the $7.14 billion sale of clinical-stage biotechnology Arcellx Inc. to Gilead Sciences Inc. Former venture capital backers New Enterprise Associates Inc. and SR One Capital Management LP agreed to make roughly 4% of the exit transaction's value contingent on Arcellx achieving at least $6 billion in sales for its in-development cancer therapy by Dec. 31, 2029. Over half the value of Alta Partners LP, Horizons Ventures Ltd. and Venrock Management LLC's $7 billion exit of clinical-stage biotech company Kelonia Therapeutics Inc. was tied up in an earnout. Acquirer Eli Lilly and Co. paid $3.25 billion at closing and agreed to make additional payments if Kelonia achieves future clinical, regulatory and commercial milestones. Outlook Amin said he expected earnout use in M&amp;A to remain elevated for some time, given the way AI, rising energy prices and higher-for-longer interest rates are clouding the macroeconomic outlook â and the wedge all that uncertainty can drive between buyers and sellers. "Earn-outs are going to be here for a while, at least until things stabilize," he said. Premium Content Log in to the Capital IQ Pro platform to continue exploring Exclusive content like the article above is available to our subscribers on S&amp;P Capital IQ Pro. Not a subscriber? Let's connect to discuss how Capital IQ Pro can fit into your organization's workflow. Log in to Capital IQ Pro Connect with an expert ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/credit-faq-warehouse-shopping-how-sp-global-ratings-analyzes-middle-market-clo-warehouse-lines-s101710285</link><description>This report does not constitute a rating action. Middle market collateralized loan obligations (MM CLOs) have seen remarkable growth in recent years, and middle market warehouse lines have expanded alongside them. At the start of 2020, just before the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic, S&amp;amp;P Global Ratings had ratings on 86 MM CLO transactions and five warehouse line transactions. By mid-2026, those figures had increased sharply: we now rate more than 330 U.S. MM CLOs and 47 U.S. middle market ware</description><title>Credit FAQ: Warehouse Shopping: How S&amp;amp;P Global Ratings Analyzes Middle Market CLO Warehouse Lines</title><pubDate>07 October 2026 15:09:47 GMT</pubDate></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/abs-frontiers-are-direct-lending-feeder-funds-clos-in-disguise-s101703325</link><description>This report does not constitute a rating action. RNFs are feeder funds that typically invest into a single limited partner (LP) interest in a master fund, creating tranched exposure to the LP interest through the issuance of one or more classes of debt and a residual equity component. By obtaining credit ratings on the debt instruments, certain institutional investors--such as insurance companies--may benefit from lower regulatory capital charges compared to direct equity investments in the unde</description><title>ABS Frontiers: Are Direct Lending Feeder Funds CLOs In Disguise?</title><pubDate>22 September 2026 15:11:19 GMT</pubDate></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/blog/energy-transition/102126-et-highlights-us-solar-imports-cooking-methodoligies-global-climate-finance</link><description>Energy transition highlights: Our editors and analysts bring you the biggest stories from the industry this week, from renewables to storage to carbon prices.</description><title>ET Highlights: US finds solar imports, key clean cooking methodologies, global climate finance gap</title><pubDate>20 October 2026 20:05:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Staff </name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Renewables, Emissions, Carbon October 21, 2026 ET Highlights: US finds solar imports, key clean cooking methodologies, global climate finance gap Energy Transition Highlights: Our editors and analysts bring together the biggest stories in the industry this week, from renewables to storage to carbon prices. Top story US ITC finds solar makers hurt by imports from India, Indonesia, Laos The US International Trade Commission determined that domestic solar manufacturers are harmed by an influx of low-priced imports from India, Indonesia and Laos, bringing the trade case to a close. The International Trade Commission (ITC) on Oct. 14 issued a final affirmative injury determination in the antidumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) investigation into crystalline-silicon photovoltaic cells and panels from those three countries. The trade agency found that the domestic industry is materially injured by these imports, which are dumped, or sold in the US at less than fair value, and subsidized by the governments of India, Indonesia and Laos. Tim Brightbill, partner and co-chair of the International Trade Practice at Wiley Rein and lead counsel to the petitioners, applauded the outcome. "We're very pleased with these results, which will support American solar manufacturing, new jobs, new factories, billions of dollars of investment that has been made in the last few years all across the country ... and also research and development to develop even better solar technology here in the United States," Brightbill told reporters during an Oct. 14 call. The US Department of Commerce issued final duty rates in September. It set AD rates of 123.04% for India, 94.36% for Indonesia and 65.43% for Laos. It set CVD rates of 126.09% for India, 73.2% to 173.7% for Indonesia, and 82.03% to 153.67% for Laos. The next step is for Commerce to issue AD/CVD orders to US Customs and Border Protection to enforce duties on imports from these countries. The Alliance for American Solar Manufacturing and Trade, which includes Hanwha Q Cells USA Corp., First Solar Inc. and Mission Solar Energy LLC, filed the petition in July 2025 following a surge of imports from these countries. The petition came after the conclusion of another AD/CVD case on imports from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. Benchmark of the Week 36 cents/watt Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, assessed solar modules delivered on a DDP basis to the US at 36 cents/W for volumes 5-50 MW. The market has seen tightening market fundamentals in 2026 as the US adjusts to policy shifts, including a Section 232 ruling in August that added a 22-cent/W price premium on imported cells. Explore Platts Energy Transition Price Assessments Editor's picks: Free and premium content SPGlobal.com/energy UN body approves two clean cooking project methodologies ahead of COP31 The UN body overseeing the Paris Agreement's carbon crediting mechanism has adopted two new methodologies for household cooking, creating a regulated pathway for cleaner cooking projects to generate UN-backed carbon credits ahead of a critical review at the UN Climate Change Conference in Turkey in November, it said Oct. 9. "This decision gives cleaner cooking projects a new pathway under the UN carbon market, with clear rules to ensure that each credit represents a real and credible emission reduction," said Mkhuthazi Steleki, chair of the Article 6.4 Supervisory Body. ENTSOG slashes 2040 European clean hydrogen demand outlook by a third Europe's gas grid operator group ENTSOG has dramatically cut its forecasts for European hydrogen demand in its latest Ten-Year Network Development Plan, with projected consumption in 2040 now running nearly one-third below the level assumed just two years agoâ a revision that reflects delayed project investment timelines, sector consolidation and a reality check for the continent's energy transition. The draft Hydrogen Infrastructure Gaps Identification report for TYNDP 2026, published Oct. 12 for public consultation, assumes EU hydrogen demand of around 335 terawatt-hours/year in 2030 and approximately 1,296 TWh/year in 2040 â compared with 620 TWh/year and 1,929 TWh/year respectively in the TYNDP 2024 assessment. Japan eyes commercial phase for carbon capture with help of policy, funding Japan's carbon recycling push is shifting to commercialization as government funding and policy support help companies move pilot projects toward deployment. At the 8th International Conference on Carbon Recycling 2026 in Tokyo, speakers said progress will depend on building a full carbon capture and utilization ecosystem and driving down costs. "Japan has set the goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. To achieve this goal, not only should renewable energy and energy conservation be introduced, but also, we need to [make] the most of carbon recycling and CCS," said Dr. Yoshihiko Ohishi, director, circular economy department, New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization. Philippines warns of climate finance gap threatening vulnerable nations The Philippines has called on United Nations member states to convert climate forecasts into concrete preparedness measures ahead of COP31, warning that a widening gap between adaptation finance pledges and actual needs threatens development gains across vulnerable economies. Speaking at the Pre-COP31 plenary discussion in Nadi, Fiji, Climate Change Commission Vice Chairperson and Executive Director Robert Borje cited a World Meteorological Organization forecast that the current El NiÃ±o would intensify to very strong levels and was highly likely to persist through February 2027. âThe forecast gives us a clear warning, but also a window to prepare and respond," Borje said, adding, "We must build right at first sight, so every investment reduces risk rather than locks it in." S&amp;P Global Energy Core ADB, Japan back AM Green's renewable ammonia plant in India The Asian Development Bank and Japan's government have signed financing agreements with AM Green Ammonia (India) Pvt. Ltd. to help build one of the worldâs largest plants to make ammonia using renewable energy in India, ADB said. The project converts a former ammonia and urea plant from natural gas-fueled production to renewable-powered renewable ammonia, with a capacity of about 1.1 million metric tons/year in Kakinada in Andhra Pradesh, it said. UKâs East Coast Cluster CCS awaits customers after two out of three withdraw The UKâs flagship East Coast Cluster carbon capture and storage project is still awaiting CO2 emitter projects to fill its first phase capacity after two of the three capture projects selected by the government for support withdrew at the end of 2025. Rich Denny, Managing Director at Northern Endurance Partnership â the company developing the transport and storage infrastructure for the East Coast Cluster â said that while the project was on track, the withdrawal of BP and Linde subsidiary BOC from the cluster was disappointing. South Korea is targeting a 2027 launch for a new international carbon market designed to overcome credibility shortfalls in existing voluntary trading schemes, the Ministry of Finance and Economy said. Called the Global Verified Carbon Market, it is being built in cooperation with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Global Green Growth Institute, and will issue credits that are usable in both compliance and voluntary markets, the ministry said. ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/podcasts/energy-evolution/102126-how-much-new-gas-capacity-does-the-texas-grid-need</link><description>The Texas grid experienced record electricity demand in summer 2026 while posting some of the lowest power prices in nearly a decade. That might be good for customers, but it makes for a tough investment environment for those wanting to build a gas plant. With surging demand projections and increasingly extreme weather swings, many believe Texas needs significant new dispatchable generation,</description><title>How much new gas capacity does the Texas grid need?</title><pubDate>21 October 2026 04:57:02 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Dan Testa</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Natural Gas, Energy Transition, Electric Power, Renewables October 21, 2026 How much new gas capacity does the Texas grid need? Featuring Dan Testa HIGHLIGHTS Texas grid posts decade-low power prices Extreme weather swings challenge reliability Investment climate deters gas plant construction The Texas grid experienced record electricity demand in summer 2026 while posting some of the lowest power prices in nearly a decade. That might be good for customers, but it makes for a tough investment environment for those wanting to build a gas plant. With surging demand projections and increasingly extreme weather swings, many believe Texas needs significant new dispatchable generation, primarily gas, to prepare. So how should we think about the reliability of the Texas grid? How much are policy mechanisms like the Texas Energy Fund's loan program helping? Where do renewables and storage fit into this? And how does Texas compare with other competitive power markets trying to encourage new dispatchable generation? This episode features a recording from the Gulf Coast Power Association's fall conference in Austin, where Dan Testa hosted a live discussion of these issues with guests David Dardis, chief external affairs and growth officer at Constellation Energy; Elaina Ball, chief strategy officer at CPS Energy, the municipal utility for San Antonio; and Mason Lester, principal analyst on the North American power team at S&amp;P Global Energy. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/101526-adb-japan-back-am-greens-renewable-ammonia-plant-in-india</link><description>The Asian Development Bank and Japan&amp;apos;s government have signed financing agreements with AM Green Ammonia (India) Pvt. Ltd. to help build one of the world&amp;apos;s largest plants to make ammonia using renewable energy in India, ADB said Oct. 15. The project converts a former ammonia and urea plant from natural gas-fueled production to renewable-powered renewable ammonia, with a capacity of about 1.1</description><title>ADB, Japan back AM Green&amp;apos;s renewable ammonia plant in India</title><pubDate>15 October 2026 14:36:32 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Ruchira Singh</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Natural Gas, Renewables, Hydrogen, Emissions October 15, 2026 ADB, Japan back AM Green's renewable ammonia plant in India By Ruchira Singh Editor: Adithya Ram Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS ADB, JICA provide $100M loan for India project Unit to produce 1.1 mil mt/y renewable ammonia AM Green secured â¬585M German supply contract The Asian Development Bank and Japan's government have signed financing agreements with AM Green Ammonia (India) Pvt. Ltd. to help build one of the world's largest plants to make ammonia using renewable energy in India, ADB said Oct. 15. The project converts a former ammonia and urea plant from natural gas-fueled production to renewable-powered renewable ammonia, with a capacity of about 1.1 million metric tons/year in Kakinada in Andhra Pradesh, it said. "By using renewable energy instead of fossil fuels, India can produce it with far lower emissions and at a scale that can help reshape this industry, ADB President Masato Kanda said. The investment includes a $100 million loan from the Leading Asia's Private Infrastructure Fund 2, financed by the Japan International Cooperation Agency and administered by ADB, ADB said. The funding also marks ADB's first investment under the Action for Creating Energy Security for Long-term Resilience (ACCEL), the development bank said. ACCEL was launched in May 2026 by ADB and Japan to help countries and businesses in Asia and the Pacific manage rising energy prices and build stronger energy systems for the future, it said. AM Green won the Asian lot of Germany's H2Global renewable ammonia tender, securing a 10-year supply contract worth at least â¬585 million ($664 million) with supply starting in 2029, H2Global's trading subsidiary Hintco and AM Green said in September. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/102026-democrats-may-gain-platform-but-lack-power-to-shift-ev-fuels-policy-analysts</link><description>Democratic control of Congress after the November US midterm elections would give the party a larger platform to promote electric vehicles and challenge President Donald Trump&amp;apos;s energy policies, but it is unlikely to meaningfully accelerate US EV adoption or a broader fuel transition before the 2028 presidential election. Congressional Democrats could hold hearings, investigate administration</description><title>Democrats may gain platform but lack power to shift EV, fuels policy: analysts</title><pubDate>20 October 2026 18:40:02 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Eamonn Brennan</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Crude Oil, Refined Products, Electric Power, Emissions, Gasoline, Diesel-Gasoil, Renewables October 20, 2026 Democrats may gain platform but lack power to shift EV, fuels policy: analysts By Eamonn Brennan Editor: Michael Lustig Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS EV adoption stalls amid policy rollback Full hybrids surge as gas prices climb Democratic control of Congress after the November US midterm elections would give the party a larger platform to promote electric vehicles and challenge President Donald Trump's energy policies, but it is unlikely to meaningfully accelerate US EV adoption or a broader fuel transition before the 2028 presidential election. Congressional Democrats could hold hearings, investigate administration decisions and argue that greater reliance on oil will become increasingly costly. But restoring federal EV incentives or reversing the rollback of vehicle-efficiency rules would require legislation acceptable to Trump or enough congressional support to override his veto, analysts said. Neither outcome is expected under the likely configurations of the next Congress. S&amp;P Global Energy CERA analysts in a September report expect neither party to secure the 60 Senate votes generally required to end a filibuster or the two-thirds majorities in both chambers needed to override a veto. Even if Democrats win both chambers, major legislation would still require Trump's signature. The election could therefore change Washington's debate over transportation policy but not substantially change the policies shaping vehicle purchases, experts said. Republicans' 2025 budget reconciliation legislation ended federal clean-vehicle tax credits and reduced penalties for automakers' noncompliance with Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards to zero. The Trump administration also repealed federal greenhouse gas standards for vehicles and finalized weaker CAFE requirements through model year 2031. The new CAFE rule requires estimated industrywide light-vehicle fuel economy of 34.9 miles/gallon in model year 2031, up only modestly from an estimated requirement of 32.2 miles/gal in 2026. The previous Biden-era rule targeted 50.4 miles/gal in 2031, although other differences between the regulations make an exact comparison difficult. Those policy changes had already slowed the US' EV transition momentum before the US-Israel war on Iran lifted global fuel prices, reducing the impact of the new price environment on the US market. According to a S&amp;P Global Energy CERA analysis published Oct. 15, US gasoline demand has marginally declined since the beginning of 2026, averaging 94,000 barrels per day below the 2023-2025 average. But demand is projected to rise in the rest of the year, to 8.9 million b/d. Meanwhile, "there's little, if any, support" at the federal level for EVs or more fuel-efficient vehicles generally, Jeff Meyer, CERA's director of mobility and energy, said in an interview. Even under a Democratic Congress, "there would still be the challenge of a veto and then overcoming that veto, which is a very, very high hurdle," Meyer said. US trails on EV adoption The US has already lost momentum relative to China, Europe and several other markets following the withdrawal of federal policy support, S&amp;P Global analyses have found. US battery-electric and plug-in hybrid sales growth has recently stalled, and consumers have increasingly selected full hybrids that do not need to be plugged in, according to a July 29 CERA report. Europe continues to apply stronger policy support through subsidies in some countries and a greenhouse gas framework that encourages automakers to introduce and competitively price more EV models. Markets open to competitively priced Chinese EVs have also benefited from a broader selection of vehicles and downward price pressure, Meyer said. The US remains relatively insulated from that supply-side effect. The US also has a different energy-security calculation. Its large domestic oil supply makes the case for replacing petroleum imports with electricity less urgent than in Europe and some Asian economies, Meyer said. Those differences have persisted despite the 2026 increase in oil and gasoline prices. CERA found that US retail gasoline prices increased by more than 40% between February and June, based on a simple average across the five main US Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts. Yet the US entered the year with little or no momentum toward EV adoption and, despite increased gasoline and diesel costs, has seen fewer EV sales as a percentage of all light vehicles than in 2025, despite the US-Israel war on Iran. China, the UK, Turkey and several Southeast Asian markets combined higher gasoline prices with stronger existing momentum, positioning fuel costs to accelerate a transition already underway. "Increased pump prices or retail gasoline or diesel prices are a tailwind, all else equal, including electricity prices," Meyer said. But fuel prices, government support, vehicle availability and other market forces are difficult to disentangle. "It's easier to make an energy security argument from a European perspective, or among some markets in Asia." In the US, the clearest response to higher gasoline prices has occurred in full hybrids rather than plug-in vehicles. EV market share bottomed after federal incentives were removed, and has shown only a limited rebound, Meyer said. Full hybrids have gained more visibility, reflecting their smaller price premium over conventional vehicles and their ability to improve fuel economy without requiring drivers to charge. CERA said some consumers now choosing hybrids might have selected battery EVs or plug-in hybrids under a more supportive federal policy environment. Slower transition The reduced federal role is not expected to halt US EV adoption altogether. CERA has lowered its medium-term EV outlook but still expects adoption to increase. The transition is projected to proceed more slowly through at least 2028, supported principally by organic demand, home-charging access and the introduction of compelling models rather than federal incentives, Meyer said. Nor could a future administration immediately reverse that path. Automakers work on multiyear product-planning cycles, limiting how quickly another change in federal policy could alter the vehicles available to consumers. A Democratic Congress could put those choices under greater scrutiny and keep EV policy prominent in Washington. But with Trump retaining the veto and control of the executive branch, the US transition would remain driven more by markets and product decisions than by Congress. Chinese automakers have aggressively pursued increased global market share, but are broadly unable to access the US market. European and Asian countries are "pressing automakers to bring forward more models and price them attractively in order to sell them," Meyer said. "We don't have that kind of stick or carrot in the United States right now." Oversight rather than legislation Democrats could use control of congressional committees to press the Trump administration over those policies and make an economic case for shifting transportation and energy consumption away from oil, Robert Glicksman, a professor of environmental law at George Washington University Law School, said. Debate over the American Affordability and Jobs Act, a permitting reform bill introduced Sept. 30 by Senators Shelden Whitehouse (Democrat-Rhode Island), Martin Heinrich (Democrat-New Mexico), Shelley Moore Capito (Republican-West Virginia) and Mike Lee (Republican-Utah), could increase the salience of renewable energy versus fossil fuel projects in the upcoming Congress. Democrats could seek to demonstrate through debate on that bill and in hearings that renewable energy is becoming cheaper than continued reliance on oil and gas amid high prices and supply disruptions in the Middle East, and argue that additional fossil-fuel leasing risks locking the US into higher-cost energy consumption. "The only thing I can think of would be putting pressure to slow that [fossil fuel project pipeline] down is by coming up with facts that substantiate that renewable energy production is cheaper than continued reliance on oil and gas," Glicksman said. "If they can basically make the argument that we're heading down the wrong path here, we ought to be slowing this down and facilitating cheaper renewable production, maybe that'll have some traction." Energy costs have emerged as a "key voter issue," CERA's midterms forecast said, but the opportunity for meaningful legislation until 2028 is limited. "Voters have raised significant concerns that energy prices will continue to rise due to several geopolitical and internal factors," CERA analysts Anna Mosby, Matt Williams, Tony Lenoir and Monica Hlinka wrote. "However, the outcome of the election is expected to only minimally impact federal climate- and energy-related policy over the next two years. "Over the past two decades, federal policymaking in the energy and environmental spaces has been dominated by executive branch action, as the legislative branch has faced immense difficulty in passing major legislation due to increasing political polarization and institutional constraints within the Senate," they said. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/metals/102026-eu-lawmakers-vote-to-create-raw-materials-agency-to-cut-reliance-on-china</link><description>The European Parliament has voted to strengthen the bloc&amp;apos;s Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA), backing the creation of a dedicated EU agency and a â&amp;#x82;¬2 billion fund designed to reduce Europe&amp;apos;s dependence on foreign suppliers of minerals essential to the clean energy, defense and digital transitions. The amendments, adopted by 470 votes to 83 with 108 abstentions, are designed to accelerate</description><title>EU lawmakers vote to create raw materials agency to cut reliance on China</title><pubDate>20 October 2026 14:18:35 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Annalisa Villa</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Metals &amp; Mining, Energy Transition, Electric Power, Non-Ferrous, Renewables October 20, 2026 EU lawmakers vote to create raw materials agency to cut reliance on China By Annalisa Villa Editor: Jonathan Fox Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS EU Parliament backs â¬2B fund for minerals New agency aims to cut dependence on China Export controls target magnet scrap retention The European Parliament has voted to strengthen the bloc's Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA), backing the creation of a dedicated EU agency and a â¬2 billion fund designed to reduce Europe's dependence on foreign suppliers of minerals essential to the clean energy, defense and digital transitions. The amendments, adopted by 470 votes to 83 with 108 abstentions, are designed to accelerate extraction, processing, recycling and substitution across the full critical raw materials value chain, with direct implications for commodity trade flows as the EU seeks to diversify away from dominant suppliers â particularly China â for inputs ranging from rare earth elements to lithium and cobalt. "Critical raw materials have become the currency of geopolitical power. Those who control them control our industrial future, our energy transition and our security," lead MEP Mohammed Chahim, of the Socialists and Democrats group from the Netherlands, said. Supply security At the heart of the proposed amendments is the creation of a critical raw materials center as a self-standing EU agency, equipped with dedicated funding, clear governance and democratic accountability. The center will consolidate market intelligence, resilience planning, stockpiling coordination, joint purchasing, stakeholder engagement and financial instruments under one roof. MEPs have proposed funding the center through a â¬ 2 billion Critical Raw Materials Fund, earmarked under the EU's 2028-2034 long-term budget framework. The fund will provide revenue certainty to developers of extraction, processing and recycling projects through price-stabilization mechanisms, including contracts for difference, a tool already used in the European power sector to de-risk low-carbon investment. To keep recyclable materials within the EU and support domestic processing capacity, MEPs are calling for a conditional export-control clause that would allow the European Commission to restrict exports of permanent-magnet scrap and waste. Permanent magnets â which rely heavily on rare earth elements such as neodymium and dysprosium â are critical components in electric vehicle motors and wind turbines, sectors at the core of the EU's energy transition strategy. The Commission, rather than individual member states, will be responsible for identifying large companies whose use of critical raw materials in strategic sectors â including batteries, hydrogen equipment, aircraft, drones, satellites and advanced chips â triggers resilience obligations. Those obligations would include supply chain mapping and measures to reduce vulnerability to disruption. MEPs also want the Commission to open applications for strategic projects at least twice a year, providing companies with clear and predictable timelines for investment decisions. Defense dimension The EU Parliament's amendments explicitly link critical raw materials security to European defense capability, calling for the forthcoming European Defence Industry Program to be mobilized to finance strategic raw material projects vital to EU security. The move reflects growing concern among policymakers that supply concentration risks extend beyond economic disruption to national security vulnerabilities. The joint purchasing mechanism already available under the existing CRMA framework would be expanded under the proposed amendments to facilitate coordinated strategic stockpiling of critical raw materials by both member states and private-sector participants. The original CRMA was adopted by Parliament in December 2023, establishing an EU-wide framework to guarantee industry access to raw material inputs essential for the clean energy, digital, defense and aerospace transitions. The Commission proposed amendments to the law in December 2025, stemming from the RESourceEU Action Plan, citing the need to accelerate implementation and strengthen the EU's strategic autonomy in the face of intensifying global competition for mineral resources. Parliament is now ready to begin negotiations with member states on the final text. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/natural-gas/102026-environment-committee-seeks-100-million-additional-free-allocations-under-eu-ets</link><description>Lawmakers overseeing the review of the EU&amp;apos;s carbon market voted to extend free allocations given to industry to prevent carbon leakage, the European Parliament said Oct. 19. Members of Parliament voted in favor of softer fallback benchmarks for the 2026-2030 period, resulting in an additional 100 million free allocations under the EU Emissions Trading System. The Committee on the Environment,</description><title>Environment Committee seeks 100 million additional free allocations under EU ETS</title><pubDate>20 October 2026 10:13:09 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Irina Breilean</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Natural Gas, Energy Transition, Carbon October 20, 2026 Environment Committee seeks 100 million additional free allocations under EU ETS By Irina Breilean Editor: Ribhu Ranjan Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS MEPs approve 64-11 softer fallback benchmarks Revenue split targets three streams for industry Calls for sector-specific sub-benchmarks Lawmakers overseeing the review of the EU's carbon market voted to extend free allocations given to industry to prevent carbon leakage, the European Parliament said Oct. 19. Members of Parliament voted in favor of softer fallback benchmarks for the 2026-2030 period, resulting in an additional 100 million free allocations under the EU Emissions Trading System. The Committee on the Environment, Climate and Food Safety (ENVI) met to discuss the Commission's earlier proposal for heat and fuel benchmarks under the ETS. "By increasing the free allocation proposed by the Commission, the Committee recognizes, with broad support, that certain sectors need stronger protection against carbon leakage," said rapporteur Adam Jarubas from the European People's Party. "At the same time, it takes into account the diverse range of industries covered by the general fuel benchmark. It also calls on the Commission to act swiftly for sectors such as ceramics, which, according to the calculations, should receive a higher allocation than the general benchmark gives them," he added. The values were proposed earlier this year and will be used to calculate free emission allowance allocations for industrial processes for which a specific product benchmark cannot be defined due to high product variety or small numbers of installations. Lawmakers shared the Commission's position, pushing to use all allowances available for free allocation over up to 2030, estimated at around 88 million. The MEPs further call for adding around 11 million allowances withheld from installations that failed to meet specific ETS conditions, such as implementing energy audit recommendations, bringing the total to nearly 100 million. The position was adopted with 64 votes in favor, 11 against and 2 abstentions. Industry safeguards This decision would see fallback benchmark values around 12.5% lower than in the 2021-2025 period, according to Parliament. The allowances not allocated due to reduced free allocations would be split into three revenue pots, shared between fallback benchmark adjustments and auctions. The revenue would go to the Modernization Fund â which supports investments such as modernizing district heating â and to the Innovation Fund, which helps deploy net-zero and low-carbon technologies. Lawmakers said there are cases where the new benchmarks might not reflect the industrial performance of some sectors, calling on the Commission to set sector-specific sub-benchmarks based on the 10% most efficient installations in that sector, where significant and documented differences exist. The same reference period, data and methodology as the general fuel benchmark would be used. "The sector-specific sub-benchmarks would be new subcategories within the existing fuel benchmark, which is one of the two fallback benchmarks," a spokesperson for the Parliament told Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy. "They are not new fallback benchmarks, and they do not concern the heat benchmark." The Commission would set out, in a delegated act, the criteria for defining the sector-specific benchmarks and their system boundaries, the spokesperson said. The sub-sectoral values would apply within three months of the regulation's publication. Within six months, the Commission would determine the sub-benchmark values in implementing acts. "Priority would be given to refractory products and ceramic tiles (NACE codes 23.20 and 23.31)," the spokesperson added. The EU Parliament is scheduled to vote on the procedure on Oct. 22, after which negotiations with the Council will start, with a view to applying the new values starting in 2027. The EU ETS review is underway following the proposal put forward by the Commission in July, with lawmakers and council members balancing questions of industrial competitiveness and climate ambition as the bloc faces high energy prices, with natural gas futures at a more than three-year high. EU leaders have previously said they will seek to reach a final political agreement on the reform by the first quarter of 2027, but industry members and counterparties active in the carbon market have previously expressed skepticism about the feasibility of this deadline. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/electric-power/101926-virginia-governor-seeks-rate-freeze-more-bill-credits-in-dominion-nextera-deal</link><description>Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger is calling for a six-year freeze on residential electricity rates and additional customer bill credits as conditions of state regulatory approval of NextEra Energy Inc.&amp;apos;s planned acquisition of Dominion Energy Inc. Without these ratepayer benefits and other binding commitments, Spanberger said the Virginia State Corporation Commission should reject the proposed</description><title>Virginia governor seeks rate freeze, more bill credits in Dominion-NextEra deal</title><pubDate>19 October 2026 22:21:07 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Darren Sweeney</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Electric Power, Energy Transition, Renewables October 19, 2026 Virginia governor seeks rate freeze, more bill credits in Dominion-NextEra deal By Darren Sweeney Editor: Karina Roman Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS SCC staff recommends rejecting merger deal NextEra promises $2.1B in customer benefits Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger is calling for a six-year freeze on residential electricity rates and additional customer bill credits as conditions of state regulatory approval of NextEra Energy Inc.'s planned acquisition of Dominion Energy Inc. Without these ratepayer benefits and other binding commitments, Spanberger said the Virginia State Corporation Commission should reject the proposed $67.4 billion merger. "Any proposed merger involving Virginia's primary state-regulated utility must benefit families, small businesses, and Virginia's workforce â not just the shareholders of these multibillion-dollar corporations," Spanberger (Democrat) said in an Oct. 19 statement. "That's why I am calling for a six-year freeze to Virginians' base residential electricity rates, a tripling of monthly bill credits for ratepayers, and additional commitments to lower energy costs and meet our long-term clean and homegrown energy goals if the State Corporation Commission is to approve this merger." NextEra, headquartered in Juno Beach, Florida, announced plans in May to acquire Richmond, Virginia-based Dominion in an all-stock deal that, if approved, would form the world's largest regulated electric utility. John Ketchum, NextEra's chairman, president and CEO, joined Edward Baine, Dominion's executive vice president of utility operations and president of Dominion's regulated utility subsidiary, Virginia Electric and Power Co., known as Dominion Energy Virginia, for a fireside chat Oct. 15 in Richmond to tout the benefits of the combination. 'Deeply skeptical': Spanberger Spanberger said she remains "deeply skeptical" that the merger, as proposed, "will adequately protect consumers and deliver meaningful public benefits." Richard McCann, with California consulting firm M.Cubed, filed testimony Oct. 19 with the SCC (Case No. PUR-2026-00112) on behalf of the governor and Virginia Chief Energy Officer Josephus Allmond. In addition to a six-year rate freeze and the tripling of customer bill credits to $29 per month, McCann's recommendations include increasing the debt share in Dominion's capital structure to 60% from 48% to reduce its rate on return and improving disconnection protections for certain households. The recommendations also include clean energy commitments, such as prioritizing energy efficiency and distributed energy resources in resource planning and acquisitions; the formation of a Virginia-based, financially separate "zero-carbon energy generation company" to serve large-load data centers and protect other customers; creation of an independent state energy-efficiency utility; establishment of incentives for electrification of heat pumps and electric vehicles; and the elimination of the cap on rooftop solar net metering to encourage more local renewable generation. The expert testimony was filed the same day as the staff of the Virginia SCC recommended the state regulators reject the deal. Staff, in its filing, said Dominion and NextEra "have not met their burden to prove that 'adequate service to the public at just and reasonable rates will not be impaired or jeopardized' by the merger." The proposed merger "would expose [Dominion Energy Virginia] to the additional financial and business risks of NextEra's unregulated, competitive businesses," staff wrote, adding that the merger commitments are "not sufficient to ensure that [Dominion Energy Virginia] will maintain the resources to provide adequate service to its customers post-merger." "The merger, if approved, would not be easily undone and would have very long-lasting impacts in Virginia," staff wrote. Viewpoints vary "As expected in a proceeding of this size and significance, today's testimony reflects a wide range of viewpoints and interests," NextEra said in a statement for both companies. "We are reviewing the filings and will address the issues raised through the Commission's established process. The proposed combination of Dominion Energy and NextEra Energy represents a generational investment in Virginia's customers, communities and economic future, delivering more than $2.1 billion in near-term direct customer and community benefits through bill credits, bill payment assistance, workforce development and charitable investments, creating 1,000 new direct jobs, and maintaining Dominion Energy's current Virginia workforce for five years." Dominion and NextEra in September proposed increased customer benefits for Virginia, pledging to double residential bill credits, expand low-income financial assistance, accelerate clean energy development and build a new co-headquarters in Richmond as part of an updated merger proposal filed with the SCC. The companies plan to provide bill credits of $10 per month to Dominion Energy Virginia's residential ratepayers for four years through an expanded benefits package filed Sept. 14 with the SCC. Dominion and NextEra noted in their original joint petition filed in July that approximately $1.78 billion of the $2.25 billion in bill credits for Dominion's ratepayers in Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina, funded by NextEra at shareholder expense, would be allocated to Virginia customers over a two-year period after the merger closes. Evidentiary hearings on the deal are scheduled to begin Nov. 17 before the SCC. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/102026-eu-weakens-call-for-ban-on-arctic-oil-and-gas-drilling</link><description>The European Union has watered down calls for a ban on Arctic oil and gas drilling, following intense lobbying from key supplier Norway, but continues to call for hydrocarbons to be left in the ground, according to an updated strategy document. In its previous plan, the 2021 Joint Communication on the EU Arctic Policy, the EU said it would pursue an international ban on new drilling in polar</description><title>EU weakens call for ban on Arctic oil and gas drilling</title><pubDate>20 October 2026 13:55:41 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Charlie Mitchell</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Metals &amp; Mining, Coal, Refined Products, LNG, Natural Gas, Crude Oil, Renewables, Diesel-Gasoil October 20, 2026 EU weakens call for ban on Arctic oil and gas drilling By Charlie Mitchell Editor: Gary Gentile Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS EU removes call for multilateral drilling ban Continues to call for oil, gas to be left in ground Follows Norwegian lobbying, Ukraine, Iran wars The European Union has watered down calls for a ban on Arctic oil and gas drilling, following intense lobbying from key supplier Norway, but continues to call for hydrocarbons to be left in the ground, according to an updated strategy document. In its previous plan, the 2021 Joint Communication on the EU Arctic Policy, the EU said it would pursue an international ban on new drilling in polar regions for environmental reasons and expressed direct opposition to oil and gas developments in the Arctic. While its long-awaited update released Oct. 20 continues to call for Arctic oil, coal and gas to "stay in the ground" and for the region to develop renewable energy and "sustainable minerals", it drops calls to "work with partners toward a multilateral legal obligation not to allow any further hydrocarbon reserve development in the Arctic...nor to purchase such hydrocarbons if they were to be produced." The tweak follows increasingly vocal comments from Norwegian officials, both in government and state-run Equinor, about the importance of exploration in its Arctic waters for Europe's energy security. In August, Equinor CEO Anders Opedal told Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, that the EU was taking the "wrong direction" when it comes to Arctic drilling. "What they call Arctic is where my people live and work," Opedal said in an interview on the sidelines of the ONS conference in Stavanger. "I think this is kind of the wrong direction from the EU." He added that Barents Sea fields are "a vital part of the energy security for Europe." Speaking at the same event, Norway's energy minister Terje Aasland said that it was Norway's "responsibility" to seek out "great opportunities" for new oil and gas developments in the Arctic, while also accusing EU members of mixed messaging on the issue. Addressing reporters at the launch on Oct. 20, Jozef Sikela, European Commissioner for international partnerships, said the EU remains committed to its Paris climate goals and 2050 net zero ambitions and would work with partners "to prevent hydrocarbon developments that pose a threat to [the] Arctic ecosystem". However, Sikela added, "we respect the decision of Norway simply to open or at least explore the opportunities" for new developments. European countries already buy some 220,000 barrels/day of crude oil from Equinor's Johan Castberg field, a major Arctic development in the Barents Sea, which came online last year. According to S&amp;P Global Commodities at Sea data, Sweden, the UK and the Netherlands are the biggest importers of Castberg crude. A stand-alone development, Norwegian officials see Johan Castberg as a potential launchpad for a new era of Arctic exploration. Equinor is also eyeing a final investment decision on its long-delayed Wisting oil field even further north. According to the Norwegian Offshore Directorate, the Arctic holds 62% of Norway's remaining undiscovered hydrocarbon resources. The EU rethink follows the market-roiling US-Iran war, which slashed crude and product flows through the Strait of Hormuz, sending prices soaring. With diesel cracks hitting record highs, Middle Eastern flows to Europe looking increasingly precarious, and the Russia-Ukraine war still ongoing, Norwegian oil and gas has become the cornerstone of European energy security. It also comes against the backdrop of a tussle for control of the strategic Arctic region, exemplified by US President Donald Trump's threats to annex Greenland and increasing Russian and Chinese activity. Russia has LNG assets in the Arctic and a large fleet of Arctic icebreakers. Launching the new strategy, Kaja Kallas, the EU's foreign policy chief, said the Arctic "has become the front line of global power competition" and said the bloc was prioritizing critical raw materials, clean energy and new trade routes. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/sustainable-finance-faq-how-sp-global-ratings-supports-credibility-and-transparency-in-transition-financing-s13159413</link><description>Sustainable finance is not only about financing activities and investments that are already compatible with a low-carbon, climate resilient future, considered &amp;quot;green,&amp;quot; and aligned with the Paris Agreement. It is also about financing activities and investments that are not yet compatible with a low-carbon, climate resilient future but contribute to a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. There are various interpretations of what constitutes transition financing. Broadly speaking, this refers to </description><title>Sustainable Finance FAQ: How S&amp;amp;P Global Ratings Supports Credibility And Transparency In Transition Financing</title><pubDate>02 July 2024 07:58:19 GMT</pubDate></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/credit-faq-will-callable-capital-be-a-game-changer-for-the-mli-asset-class-s13177899</link><description>In 2022, a G-20 expert panel review published a report &amp;quot;Boosting MDB&amp;apos;s Investing Capacity,&amp;quot; which included a recommendation to incorporate uplift from callable capital into multilateral development banks&amp;apos; (MDB) capital adequacy frameworks as one approach that can support increasing lending headroom. S&amp;amp;P Global Ratings responded to these recommendations (see &amp;quot;A Closer Look At The G-20 Expert Panel Review Of MLIs&amp;apos; Capital Adequacy Frameworks,&amp;quot; Oct. 11, 2022) and noted that callable capital could b</description><title>Credit FAQ: Will Callable Capital Be A Game Changer For The MLI Asset Class?</title><pubDate>22 July 2024 14:12:12 GMT</pubDate></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/blog/crude-oil/102026-ctracker-canada-pacific-propane-pacific-aluminum-uk-clean-power-china-saf</link><description>Asian refiners are paying record premiums for Canadian heavy crude amid diversification of supply. US propane exports reached an all-time high in September, while Pacific alumina prices face downward pressure from Chinese supply expansion. The UK targets 2030 clean power goals amid rising prices and China&amp;apos;s sustainable aviation fuel plant sees overseas demand. </description><title>COMMODITY TRACKER: 5 charts to watch this week</title><pubDate>20 October 2026 10:37:29 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Staff </name></author><content><![CDATA[ NGLs, Refined Products, Crude Oil, Metals &amp; Mining, Electric Power, Energy Transition, Natural Gas, Agriculture, LPG, Non-Ferrous, Renewables, Biofuels October 20, 2026 COMMODITY TRACKER: 5 charts to watch this week By Staff Editor: Roma Arora Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... Asian refiners are paying record premiums for Canadian heavy crude amid diversification of supply. US propane exports reached an all-time high in September, while Pacific alumina prices face downward pressure from Chinese supply expansion. The UK targets 2030 clean power goals amid rising prices and China's sustainable aviation fuel plant sees overseas demand. 1. Pacific crude flows shift toward Canadian grades What's happening? Canadian heavy sour crude grades Cold Lake and Access Western Blend are commanding higher premiums in East Asian markets as regional refiners struggle to secure Middle Eastern heavy sour supplies, according to North Asian refinery sources and South Korean foreign affairs and trade ministries. Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, assessed Cold Lake at a record-high premium of $9.50/b against front-month Dubai on CFR South Korea basis Sept. 21. The premium averaged $4.33/b in October to date, compared with September's average of $3.67/b. In China, Canadian heavy sour crude cargoes were recently offered at premiums of up to $14/b to ICE Dated Brent futures, according to trading managers and feedstock sources at Shandong-based refiners. What's next? South Korea is on track to import a record volume of Canadian crude in 2026, targeting 16 million barrels this year, more than triple the 4.88 million barrels imported in 2025, according to Korea National Oil Corp. data issued Sept. 25. South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun and Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand agreed to strengthen cooperation on stable energy supplies and trade flows, highlighting major Canadian infrastructure initiatives such as the Pacific Link western oil pipeline project. 2. US propane exports hit record high What's happening? US propane exports climbed to a record high 2.2 million b/d in September, driven by increased shipments to Europe, according to S&amp;P Global Commodities at Sea data. Total US propane, ethane and butane exports remained steady at 3.2 million b/d. Asia remained the primary destination, importing 38 million barrels of propane, 10.4 million barrels of butane and 13.7 million barrels of ethane in September. Europe imported 12 million barrels of propane, 122,000 barrels of butane and around 2 million barrels of ethane. The average propane and butane FOB Gulf Coast premiums to their respective Mt. Belvieu prices more than doubled to 10.8 cents/gal from 5.3 cents/gal month over month. What's next? The US is increasingly acting as the replacement supplier for constrained Middle East LPG barrels into Asia, where buyers are seeking supply security amid regional disruptions, according to an October North America NGL Market report by S&amp;P Global Energy CERA analysts. CERA analysts said robust VLGC freight and weaker seasonal demand pose headwinds for US propane prices, with warmer weather expected to limit upward price pressure. Related infographic: US propane exports hit record high on surging European, Asian demand 3. Pacific alumina prices face Q4 pressure What's happening? Pacific alumina prices diverged in the third quarter, with seaborne prices rising and Chinese domestic prices falling. The Platts FOB Australia alumina assessment averaged $348.33/metric ton in the third quarter and reached $387/mt on Oct. 14, up 4.7% from the end of the third quarter. By contrast, the Platts ex-works Shanxi domestic alumina assessment averaged 2,732.54 yuan/mt in the third quarter and fell to 2,690 yuan/mt on Oct. 14. China became a net alumina exporter in August, with exports totaling 425,003 mt and imports at 349,531 mt, according to Chinese customs data. Observed spot alumina trade volume reached 1.131 million mt in the third quarter, up 38% year over year. What's next? Pacific alumina prices could face renewed pressure in the fourth quarter as expanding Chinese refinery supply and emerging export availability weigh on markets. CERA's Sept. 28 Aluminum Medium-Term Outlook projected a global alumina surplus of about 1.5 million mt in 2026, about 36% lower year over year, and anticipated a sentiment-led correction in FOB Australia prices during the fourth quarter. CERA forecast Indonesian aluminum output at about 1.2 million mt in 2026, nearly double the previous year. Emirates Global Aluminium restarted 315 of Al Taweelah smelter's 1,262 reduction cells as of Aug. 26 and expects full production in the first quarter of 2027, supporting gradual alumina consumption recovery. 4. UK doubles down on 2030 clean power targets What's happening? UK Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh doubled down on efforts to meet the 2030 clean power targets but called for pragmatism to keep energy affordable during the Energy UK conference in London on Oct. 14. The clean power mission calls for at least 95% of Great Britain's electricity demand to be covered by clean sources such as renewables, nuclear or carbon-captured gas plants. System operator NESO CEO Fintan Slye said a "Herculean effort" was still needed despite progress, with many large infrastructure projects facing massive challenges. Platts assessed UK year-ahead power at Â£137.33/megawatt-hour on Oct. 14, the highest since April 2023. What's next? Reform to grid connection queues is key to managing network constraints amid a Â£70 billion grid investment plan, according to Slye. CERA analysts forecast installed wind and solar capacity in Great Britain will reach about 97 gigawatts in 2030, almost doubling within five years and broadly aligned with the lower range of NESO's Clean Power scenario, which assumes an 11% increase in annual electricity consumption. UK power prices for 2028 are currently trading below continental levels due to the removal of the UK carbon price support levy from April 2028. CERA analysts forecast this would turn GB into a net power exporter compared to net imports of about 10% of GB demand. Nuclear lifespan extensions since late 2024 added about 90 TWh of additional supply through 2030. 5. China's SAF plant targets European exports What's happening? China's sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant under construction on Liuheng Island in Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, is targeting European and Southeast Asian export markets when production begins in early 2027. The project, developed by Zhejiang Jianglan Biotechnology, is 50% complete and scheduled to begin trial production by the end of March 2027, according to Zhoushan Daily on Oct. 15. The facility is designed to process 320,000 mt/year of waste bio-oils and produce 225,000 mt/year of hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids-based SAF. Platts assessed Sustainable Aviation Fuel HEFA-SPK FOB Straits at $2,180/mt on Oct. 16, down $20/mt from Oct. 15. What's next? The project's commercial strategy focuses primarily on overseas demand, with EU SAF blending mandates requiring a minimum 6% SAF blend at airports by 2030, rising to 70% by 2050. General manager Tang Huaijiang said the company has begun business negotiations with SAF traders and base airlines in Europe and Southeast Asia and is actively applying for national SAF export whitelist qualifications. The plant is designed to meet the international ASTM D7566 aviation fuel standards and is expected to obtain airworthiness certification from the Civil Aviation Administration of China, alongside EU sustainability and carbon certification, at the start of production. Reporting and analysis by Gawoon Philip Vahn, Daisy Xu, Binish Azhar, Nick Tan, Louissa Liau, Andreas Franke and Samyak Pandey. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/refined-products/102026-ibc-2026-saf-bankability-hinges-on-feedstock-security-long-term-offtake-amid-cost-pressure</link><description>Bankability of sustainable aviation fuel projects will depend on secure feedstock supply, long-term offtake agreements and competitive production economics to attract financing, with policy mandates alone unlikely to provide sufficient investment certainty, panel speakers said at the 2026 International Bioenergy Conference in Singapore Oct. 20. Panelists discussing project bankability said</description><title>IBC 2026: SAF bankability hinges on feedstock security, long-term offtake amid cost pressure</title><pubDate>20 October 2026 11:35:47 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Jenson Ong</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Agriculture, Refined Products, Energy Transition, Biofuels, Vegetable Oils, Gasoline, Renewables, Diesel-Gasoil October 20, 2026 IBC 2026: SAF bankability hinges on feedstock security, long-term offtake amid cost pressure By Jenson Ong Editor: Ribhu Ranjan Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Predictable policy, demand considerations key to unlock project finance SAF economics need to withstand shifts in policy support Asia biomass offers potential; aggregation and eligibility remain hurdles Bankability of sustainable aviation fuel projects will depend on secure feedstock supply, long-term offtake agreements and competitive production economics to attract financing, with policy mandates alone unlikely to provide sufficient investment certainty, panel speakers said at the 2026 International Bioenergy Conference in Singapore Oct. 20. Panelists discussing project bankability said feedstock availability and supply security remain central considerations, particularly for hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids, or HEFA, projects, while developers also need greater certainty over future demand, pricing and the certification eligibility of fuels produced. Capital allocation for SAF projects is complex as investors must navigate a longer runway for returns on investment, speakers said, increasing the importance of securing buyer commitment early in project development. Global SAF production is forecasted to be only about 0.8% of total annual aviation fuel consumption in 2026 despite mandates, according to an International Air Transport Association report published in June. Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, assessed SAF HEFA-SPK basis FOB Straits in Asia, reflecting CORSIA-certified cargoes, at $2,180/metric ton on Oct. 19, down $175/mt from the week before. The SAF FOB Straits premium was assessed at $840.75/mt over Platts Jet Kero FOB Singapore forward curve (MOPS) on Oct. 19, Platts data showed. "Long-term offtake agreements could give lenders greater confidence in future demand and expected revenues," said Edmund Siau, vice president in the strategy and development group at the Singaporean investment platform company GenZero. However, speakers cautioned against assessing project economics solely around announced policy, as changes to mandates, incentives or other support could undermine investment assumptions. Predictable policy, therefore, remains important, and developers should consider whether projects could remain commercially viable if mandates or other forms of policy support were to be revised, said Goh Tat Chuan, head of APAC business development at next-generation climate technology company Aether Fuels. Investors also need to consider the wider ecosystem supporting a project, including feedstock suppliers, technology providers, financiers, fuel suppliers and potential offtakers. Feedstock supply security key to bankability Feedstock availability and supply security remain central to SAF bankability, particularly for HEFA projects, where feedstock accounts for a major component of production costs. Developers need visibility across the supply chain, including the availability, price and duration of feedstock supply, while ensuring the fuel is eligible under regulations in the market where the finished product will be sold. Southeast Asia was identified as having considerable potential from agricultural residues, rice straw, palm-related materials, palm oil mill effluent and other biological wastes. The region's relatively diverse resource base could support multiple biofuel production pathways, allowing producers to match technologies with locally available feedstocks, said Gillian Goh, scientist and principal investigator at Singapore's lead public sector R&amp;D agency A*STAR. But availability does not necessarily translate into equivalent bankable supply. Aggregation networks for agricultural and biological wastes remain underdeveloped in parts of Southeast Asia, while transport costs, competing uses and differing sustainability requirements can reduce the amount of economically accessible feedstock. Multiple production pathways needed HEFA currently dominates commercial SAF production, but panelists said a wider portfolio of technologies will ultimately be needed as demand expands and sub-mandates for non-HEFA SAF approach. Alcohol-to-jet and gas-to-liquid production pathways were among the alternatives discussed, with the appropriate technology depending heavily on local feedstock availability and market conditions. Professor Rafael Luque from ECOTEC University of Ecuador said gas-to-liquid biofuel production technologies require careful optimization for commercial development, while the appropriate emerging SAF pathway would vary between countries. Brazil has considerable potential for alcohol-to-jet because of its established ethanol industry as a feedstock for land transport fuels, said Professor Arnaldo Walter from the State University of Campinas (UNICAMP), Brazil. Asia's diverse biomass base could provide an advantage as SAF production expands, but developers will still need to turn feedstock availability into reliable supply chains while securing long-term buyers and maintaining competitive production costs. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/sustainable-finance-newsletter-q3-2024-s101607392</link><description>Light green shades continue to increase in prevalence, reflecting both the frequency of new green building projects and the rising importance of transition financing.</description><title>Sustainable Finance Newsletter Q3 2024</title><pubDate>05 November 2024 16:58:05 GMT</pubDate></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/abridged-supranationals-interim-edition-2024-multilateral-lending-institutions-sector-updates-s13177876</link><description>It&amp;apos;s been almost two years since the expert panel review presented their review of multilateral development banks (multilateral lending institutions or MLIs in S&amp;amp;P Global Ratings&amp;apos; terminology) capital adequacy frameworks. A handful of MLIs have been actively exploring and responding to these recommendations, which we believe will over time reshape the sector. The African Development Bank (AfDB) issued hybrid capital notes for US$750 million to various commercial investors in January 2024. The Wo</description><title>Abridged Supranationals Interim Edition 2024: Multilateral Lending Institutions Sector Updates</title><pubDate>12 July 2024 16:27:17 GMT</pubDate></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/project-finance-why-ratings-above-the-sovereign-are-uncommon-s13169028</link><description>Market participants have recently been questioning whether project finance transactions can have a higher rating than that on the respective sovereign, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Although S&amp;amp;P Global Ratings can rate project finance transactions above the level of the sovereign foreign currency rating, it is uncommon. This is because of the nature of the contracts in project finance, which can&amp;apos;t always anticipate the country-specific circumstances that will unfold when a so</description><title>Project Finance: Why Ratings Above The Sovereign Are Uncommon</title><pubDate>04 July 2024 14:51:23 GMT</pubDate></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/metals/101226-india-maps-steel-expansion-low-carbon-shift-through-2047</link><description>India is planning to more than double its steelmaking capacity over the next two decades while cutting the industry&amp;apos;s carbon intensity and strengthening raw material security, marking a broad shift in the country&amp;apos;s steel growth strategy under the draft National Steel Policy Vision 2047. The draft targets crude steel capacity of 604 million metric tons/year by 2047, up from 220 million mt/year in</description><title>India maps steel expansion, low-carbon shift through 2047</title><pubDate>12 October 2026 02:08:37 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Prachee Suman</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Metals &amp; Mining, Energy Transition, Electric Power, Coal, Ferrous, Carbon, Renewables, Hydrogen, Metallurgical Coal October 12, 2026 India maps steel expansion, low-carbon shift through 2047 By Prachee Suman Editor: Manish Parashar Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Draft projects 604 million mt crude steel capacity by 2047 Raw material demand to rise with mills' capacity expansion Targets carbon intensity at 1.54 mtCO2/mt crude steel India is planning to more than double its steelmaking capacity over the next two decades while cutting the industry's carbon intensity and strengthening raw material security, marking a broad shift in the country's steel growth strategy under the draft National Steel Policy Vision 2047. The draft targets crude steel capacity of 604 million metric tons/year by 2047, up from 220 million mt/year in fiscal 2025-26 (April-March), with crude steel production projected to reach 531 million mt from 170 million mt. Finished steel consumption is expected to rise to 505 million mt from 164 million mt over the same period, while per capita consumption is projected to increase to 302 kg from 116 kg. The draft builds on the National Steel Policy 2017, which targeted 300 million mt of crude steel capacity and 230 million mt of finished steel demand by 2030-31. The Vision 2047 document projects capacity at 294 million mt and finished steel consumption at 237 million mt in 2030. The draft policy also targets steel exports of 45 million mt by 2047. The Ministry of Steel has sought suggestions on the draft until Oct. 30. Growth meets transition Alongside capacity expansions, the draft forecasts a reduction in the industry's carbon intensity. The draft aims to lower the average emissions intensity to 1.54 metric tons of CO2/metric ton of crude steel by 2047, down from an estimated 2.54 mtCO2/mt. India's steel sector accounts for an estimated 10%-12% of the country's CO2 emissions, according to the draft. The document lays out a four-phase transition beginning with energy efficiency, renewable energy and increased ferrous scrap use over 2026-2030. Best available technologies and coal gasification take the lead during 2030-2035, followed by green hydrogen-based direct-reduced iron and carbon capture, utilization and storage from 2035 to 2040, with CCUS taking a larger role in addressing residual emissions during 2040-2047. The 2017 policy also sought to substantially reduce the industry's carbon footprint and improve energy efficiency, but the Vision 2047 draft sets out a quantified long-term emissions-intensity target and a phased technology pathway. Raw materials growth The scale of the proposed expansion would also increase India's requirement for steelmaking raw materials. Iron ore demand is projected to rise to 772 million mt by 2047 from 299 million mt in 2025 while coking coal demand is forecast at 236 million mt, more than triple the current 72 million mt requirement. India imports about 92% of its coking coal requirement, primarily from Australia, the US and Russia. The policy proposes diversifying overseas sourcing, acquiring foreign assets, expanding domestic coal washing and optimizing coal blends to increase the use of domestic coking coal. Ferrous scrap consumption is projected to reach 123 million mt by 2047, compared with 36 million mt in 2025-26, with the draft proposing measures to expand domestic scrap collection, processing and recycling. DRI demand is projected to increase to 143 million mt from 60 million mt. Beyond volume growth The policy also seeks to shift the industry's focus toward higher-value steel, modernization and greater technological self-reliance. India's secondary steel industry, comprising about 2,550 units and accounting for about 47% of crude steel production capacity in 2025-26, has been identified for technological upgrades, improved raw material access, skill development and stronger safety practices. On trade, the draft proposes stronger monitoring of substandard and non-conforming imports through testing, certification, traceability and real-time import monitoring, alongside remedial measures where unfair trade practices are established. It also calls for maintaining access to specialized and value-added grades that are not adequately produced domestically. On exports, the draft sees a shift from volume-driven shipments toward diversified, value-added and sustainable products, with greater emphasis on automotive, coated, electrical and stainless steel, among other advanced grades. The ministry intends to review the policy's demand and capacity projections periodically, preferably every five years, to account for technological developments, changing consumption patterns, trade dynamics, climate policies and global economic conditions. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/electric-power/101326-oversight-utility-bills-loom-large-under-a-divided-us-government-scenario</link><description>The Trump administration&amp;apos;s energy agenda could face aggressive congressional scrutiny if Democrats regain control of one or both chambers next year, even as lawmakers seek to pursue bipartisan options to address rising US utility bills. With neither party expected to secure a filibuster-proof Senate majority in the November midterm elections, issues such as data-center power demand, ratepayer</description><title>Oversight, utility bills loom large under a divided US government scenario</title><pubDate>13 October 2026 19:17:17 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Zack Hale</name><name>Maya Weber</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Natural Gas, Electric Power, LNG, Refined Products, Crude Oil, Energy Transition, Metals &amp; Mining, Diesel-Gasoil, Renewables, Emissions, Non-Ferrous October 13, 2026 Oversight, utility bills loom large under a divided US government scenario By Zack Hale and Maya Weber Editor: Sarah Smith Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Midterms could give Democrats oversight powers Lawmakers expected to seek affordability solutions The Trump administration's energy agenda could face aggressive congressional scrutiny if Democrats regain control of one or both chambers next year, even as lawmakers seek to pursue bipartisan options to address rising US utility bills. With neither party expected to secure a filibuster-proof Senate majority in the November midterm elections, issues such as data-center power demand, ratepayer protections, and support for nuclear power and domestic manufacturing may offer some of the few viable paths for bipartisan legislation. Regardless of the midterm elections outcome, lawmakers will likely feel intense pressure to show constituents that they are acting to address rising US electricity prices. Voters in many key battleground states across the nation have experienced sharp two-year average rate increases. Policy veterans see a steep learning curve for what is projected to be a historic wave of newly elected members to Congress. Still, some view the prospect of divided government as a potentially productive period for federal energy legislation. "Historically, divided government has actually been more productive on energy and environmental issues, not less productive," Scott Segal, head of Bracewell's Policy Resolution Group, said in an interview. Shared political leverage is often more conducive to bipartisan compromise, he said. Hearings, subpoenas and probes Hints of what is potentially in store appear in multiple oversight letters, reports and information requests from Democrats currently in office. What Democrats are likely to focus on is allegations that corruption has increased prices for Americans, Tyson Slocum, director of Public Citizen's Energy Program, said in an interview. Slocum said he sees "a ton" of potential targets, including the US Department of Energy emergency orders to run coal-fired generation; the administration's actions to stall solar and wind projects; settlements pushing gas development while quashing offshore wind projects; use of federal land for data centers; and use of tariffs as a negotiating tactic to spur commercial energy development. Along with affordability, investigations into whether companies received preferential treatment are likely to be central, according to Rachel Cotton, partner at Arnold &amp; Porter and former White House deputy counsel. The administration's ties to fossil fuel companies are already under scrutiny. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, ranking member of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, released a report Sept. 24 alleging that massive fossil fuel donations yielded energy policy payouts for the oil and gas industry and higher profits. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the report. "What happens when Democrats control Congress, though, is that they have subpoena power. They can request the documents," Michal Freedhoff, senior policy adviser at law firm Holland &amp; Knight and a former Senate investigator, said. "If the executive branch doesn't provide them, they can nevertheless request them from private sector companies." Kristina Moore, another former congressional investigator who is now a partner at law firm Womble Bond Dickinson, expects private companies to be on the receiving end of congressional probes because it may be difficult for investigators to obtain answers or documents they are seeking from the Trump administration. A memo issued by the US Department of Justice on Aug. 10 asserted that executive privilege may extend to presidential communications with private parties, potentially placing energy companies between a White House seeking confidentiality and a Congress seeking documents. Where Democrats are already looking Whitehouse and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts have already queried seven top oil and gas companies about their profits and pricing decisions tied to the military conflict with Iran. House and Senate Democrats are also probing a series of offshore wind cancellation deals, including the administration's nearly $1 billion agreement with TotalEnergies SE to cancel offshore wind leases and redirect investment toward oil and gas facilities. Democrats are separately seeking information on whether insider trading occurred in relation to global events that boosted energy prices. Congressional investigations can unearth important facts during litigation challenging federal regulatory decisions, such as the Trump administration's repeal of the Environmental Protection Agency's 2009 endangerment finding for greenhouse gases, multiple attorneys said. That process can coincide with parallel state-level legal efforts, Moore added. Potential Democratic energy oversight priorities Commodity/theme Areas of scrutiny Electric power and grid reliability â¢ DOE emergency orders delaying coal-plant retirements â¢ FERC and independent-agency authority â¢ Wholesale power market design, ratepayer impacts â¢ Transmission costs and utility resource planning Renewable energy and climate policy â¢ Offshore wind lease buyouts and project cancellations â¢ Delayed or blocked solar and wind permit approvals â¢ Terminated Biden-era clean-energy grants â¢ EPA repeal of 2009 endangerment finding Oil and gas â¢ US-Venezuela oil arrangements â¢ LNG and diesel exports â¢ Oil company profits and fuel prices during the Iran conflict â¢ Alleged preferential treatment of oil and gas companies* Data centers â¢ Data center power demand and cost allocation â¢ Federal land grants and financial support for data centers â¢ Permitting exemptions or accelerated approvals Markets, trade and corporate conduct â¢ Alleged insider trading tied to presidential announcements** â¢ Tariff policy and energy deals with US allies â¢ Pricing decisions during geopolitical disruptions â¢ Corporate communications with administration officials As of Oct. 9, 2026. Source: S&amp;P Global Energy; congressional correspondence. * Sept. 24, 2026, report released by Senators Chuck Schumer and Sheldon Whitehouse alleging that fossil-fuel donations influenced Trump administration energy policy decisions and benefited oil and gas companies. ** April 10, 2026, letter from Senators Elizabeth Warren and Sheldon Whitehouse to Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Michael Selig requesting an investigation into allegations of unusual oil-futures trading occurring before Trump administration announcements related to the Iran conflict. Opportunities for legislation Even under divided government, policy veterans still see areas where bipartisan energy legislation could advance. Potential openings include efforts to shield regular ratepayers from data center-related costs, as well as broader affordability-focused measures, Bracewell's Segal said. "We're not going to solve affordability between now and the midterms, so affordability issues will definitely be live," he said. Segal pointed to disclosure, transparency and cost-allocation requirements for large data centers as realistic possibilities, compared with the less likely prospect of federal guardrails on AI-related data center growth. More generation-related measures, such as domestic nuclear fuel supply initiatives, could also win bipartisan support, he said. US clean energy industry trade groups are also expected to push for an extension and expansion of domestic manufacturing tax credits. The 45X credit, created under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, was one of the law's few federal tax incentives to largely survive intact under Republicans' subsequent July 2025 budget reconciliation bill. The credit is designed to spur US manufacturing by providing per-unit tax incentives tied to the domestic production of eligible energy technologies, components and materials. The 45X credit will begin to phase down in 2030 and is set to fully expire in 2032, although groups like the American Clean Power Association see a strong bipartisan case for its extension. A recent Rhodium Group analysis found that the enactment of 45X coincided with roughly $131 billion in new US clean energy manufacturing investment through the first quarter of 2026, a roughly 400% increase compared to the comparable period before 45X existed. "We're seeing these facilities crop up in basically every state across the US," John Hensley, senior vice president of markets and policy for the American Clean Power Association, said in an interview. "They're spanning both Republican-held and Democrat-held congressional districts, as well, so you're seeing the benefits accrue to a good bipartisan swath of the country." Rhodium estimated that expanding 45X eligibility to include nuclear fusion technology, electric transformers and advanced conductors â and extending the credit through 2036 â could catalyze another $19 billion-$84 billion in new private investment. The push to expand 45X extends beyond renewable energy manufacturers. Mining and manufacturing groups have also backed legislation that would add additional critical minerals, such as copper and uranium, to the credit while expanding support for domestic mineral extraction and processing. "45X gives a great framework for incentivizing other parts of the economy's supply chain," Hensley said. "It has also created this nice framework for advancing other strategically important supply chain activities in the US." Susan Dlin contributed to this article. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/101926-inpex-sumitomo-osaka-cement-test-ship-co-capture-technology</link><description>INPEX Corp and Sumitomo Osaka Cement Co. have begun demonstration testing of a calcium-based carbon capture system initially designed for large vessels, the companies said in a joint statement Oct. 19. The Ca-Looping technology, which the two Japanese companies have jointly researched since August 2023, converts COâ&amp;#x82;&amp;#x82; into calcium carbonate that can be transported under ambient temperature and</description><title>INPEX, Sumitomo Osaka Cement test ship COâ&amp;#x82;&amp;#x82; capture technology</title><pubDate>19 October 2026 09:14:06 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Angelica Garcia</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Emissions, Carbon October 19, 2026 INPEX, Sumitomo Osaka Cement test ship COâ capture technology By Angelica Garcia Editor: Vaibhavi Ranjan Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Firms test calcium-based COâ capture system Technology converts emissions to calcium carbonate INPEX Corp and Sumitomo Osaka Cement Co. have begun demonstration testing of a calcium-based carbon capture system initially designed for large vessels, the companies said in a joint statement Oct. 19. The Ca-Looping technology, which the two Japanese companies have jointly researched since August 2023, converts COâ into calcium carbonate that can be transported under ambient temperature and pressure conditions -- a feature that could simplify logistics for captured carbon and reduce costs compared with high-pressure COâ transport systems. A demonstration facility has been installed at the National Maritime Research Institute in Mitaka City, Tokyo, where testing is currently underway, according to a joint announcement by the companies. The initial application targets large vessels, a sector facing increasingly stringent COâ emissions rules, the companies said. The companies said they aim to enable broader deployment of Ca-Looping technology across society beyond the maritime sector. The technology is also expected to contribute to the effective utilization of COâ storage sites owned or operated by INPEX in Japan and overseas, the announcement said. INPEX brings extensive experience in operating COâ separation and capture processes to the partnership, along with a portfolio of geological storage sites. Sumitomo Osaka Cement contributes carbon mineralization-based carbon capture and utilization technologies. The companies said they will advance technological development through open innovation and knowledge sharing. The demonstration aligns with strategic roadmaps at both companies, they said. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/metals/101626-lme-week-metals-industry-weighs-copper-squeeze-tariffs-export-controls</link><description>The annual LME Week kicks off in London on Oct. 19, bringing together leading stakeholders from the metals and mining industry, including company executives, government officials, traders and financiers. Over the course of the week, delegates will discuss the myriad of challenges and opportunities facing global metals markets. Among the topics expected to feature heavily at this year&amp;apos;s conference</description><title>LME Week: Metals industry weighs copper squeeze, tariffs, export controls</title><pubDate>16 October 2026 15:21:19 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Euan Sadden</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Metals &amp; Mining, Electric Power, Energy Transition, Non-Ferrous, Ferrous, Hydrogen October 16, 2026 LME Week: Metals industry weighs copper squeeze, tariffs, export controls By Euan Sadden Editor: Jonathan Loades-Carter Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Copper supply tightens amid mine disruptions US aluminum prices surge 60% above China levels El NiÃ±o threatens mining operations until 2027 The annual LME Week kicks off in London on Oct. 19, bringing together leading stakeholders from the metals and mining industry, including company executives, government officials, traders and financiers. Over the course of the week, delegates will discuss the myriad of challenges and opportunities facing global metals markets. Among the topics expected to feature heavily at this year's conference are the copper supply shortfall and the impact of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and the El NiÃ±o weather system on metals flows. Copper market tightens Copper prices remain near record highs as mine disruptions, declining ore grades and lengthy project development timelines constrain supply, while electrification, power grid investment and artificial intelligence infrastructure drive demand. Over the past 18 months, disruptions at several big operations have highlighted the market's vulnerability to unexpected outages. Meanwhile, new production is coming primarily from brownfield expansions rather than entirely new mines. Demand, on the other hand, remains resilient, supported by electrification, grid investment and the expansion of AI infrastructure. Copper concentrate supply is under particularly intense pressure in China, where rapid growth in refining capacity has increased competition for limited feedstock. Falling treatment and refining charges reflect this competition and signal mounting stress across the supply chain. Meanwhile, traders have also moved large volumes of copper into the US ahead of potential tariffs, boosting Comex inventories while reducing availability in other regions. This geographic concentration of stocks has further tightened supply outside the US and increased the market's sensitivity to changes in trade flows and tariff policy. Aluminum markets fragmented Global aluminum markets are becoming increasingly fragmented as tariffs, geopolitical disruption and uneven regional supply widen the price gap between China and Western markets. By mid-2026, US aluminum prices exceeded $6,200/metric ton â approximately 60% above Chinese prices âraising input costs for Western automakers. The divergence was driven in part by a 50% US tariff introduced in 2025 and by disruptions to Gulf production following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Global primary aluminum output subsequently declined, with production in the Gulf Cooperation Council suffering a particularly sharp drop. In response, producers are accelerating investment in alternative capacity, including new smelters, expansions and the restart of idled facilities in North America, Europe and Indonesia. Recycling capacity is also expanding, especially in China, as manufacturers seek to reduce their reliance on primary metal. However, competition for scrap is expected to intensify as demand grows and proposed EU restrictions on non-OECD metal-waste exports take effect in 2027. These developments could further reshape regional supply chains and pricing structures. Critical mineral limits The growing use of export restrictions to protect strategic resources, encourage domestic processing and strengthen diplomatic bargaining power is raising concerns about the global supply of critical minerals and rare earth elements. In recent years, China has imposed controls on several critical minerals and related products, including gallium, germanium, graphite and rare-earth materials. Zimbabwe has restricted exports of unprocessed lithium, while the Democratic Republic of Congo has introduced measures affecting cobalt, including restrictions aimed at promoting domestic value addition and addressing oversupply. These policies do not necessarily reduce physical supply, but they can limit the volume of material available to international buyers and disrupt established supply chains. The resulting uncertainty encourages stockpiling, increases prices and intensifies competition for remaining freely traded material. In response, developed economies are seeking to diversify their critical-mineral supply chains by investing in alternative sources, strengthening international cooperation and expanding domestic production and recycling. EU CBAM impact The introduction of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is being closely monitored by metals producers, traders and downstream manufacturers, as it could reshape trade flows, production economics and investment decisions across the European market. CBAM entered its definitive phase in January, applying carbon costs to imports of steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizers, electricity and hydrogen based on their embedded emissions. The mechanism currently covers primary and semi-finished materials, including crude steel and unwrought aluminum. Finished products made from these materials are generally excluded because their embedded emissions are more complex to calculate. Producers remain concerned that compliance costs, complex emissions-reporting requirements and regulatory uncertainty could increase import costs, redirect trade flows and delay investment in new capacity and supporting infrastructure. Nevertheless, EU policymakers have recently proposed expanding CBAM to include certain finished goods from 2028. The proposed extension aims to prevent companies from circumventing the mechanism by importing finished products rather than the CBAM-covered materials used to manufacture them. The potential expansion would cover a substantial volume of trade. According to S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence's Global Trade Atlas, products under consideration accounted for more than $255 billion of EU imports in 2025 â approximately 2.5 times the $103 billion covered by CBAM's initial scope. El NiÃ±o disruption Expectations of an exceptionally strong El NiÃ±o event are adding uncertainty to the near-term outlook for global metals markets. The World Meteorological Organization reinforced these concerns in September, presenting data indicating that the event could be the strongest in more than 70 years and persist until at least February 2027. A powerful El NiÃ±o could disrupt metal supply by affecting mining, refining and transportation in vulnerable regions. Drought conditions may reduce water availability for copper, lithium and nickel operations, while lower hydropower generation could constrain smelter output and increase electricity costs. Conversely, heavier rainfall and flooding could damage infrastructure, restrict access to mines and delay shipments. Latin America, Southeast Asia and Australia are particularly exposed, although the effects are likely to vary by region and commodity. Any resulting disruptions could further tighten already constrained markets, increase price volatility and encourage precautionary stockpiling. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/metals/101926-india-cements-to-secure-11-mw-of-renewable-power-through-zenataris-stake-acquisition</link><description>India Cements Ltd. has entered into energy supply and share subscription agreements to acquire a 3.62% equity stake in Zenataris Renewable Energy Pvt. Ltd., the cement producer and supplier said in a statement Oct. 16. India Cements said it will invest up to 209 million rupees ($2.5 million) in the Hyderabad-based renewable energy developer, strengthening its renewable energy portfolio. The</description><title>India Cements to secure 11 MW of renewable power through Zenataris stake acquisition</title><pubDate>19 October 2026 08:38:06 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Jia lun Ong</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Metals &amp; Mining, Energy Transition, Renewables October 19, 2026 India Cements to secure 11 MW of renewable power through Zenataris stake acquisition By Jia lun Ong Editor: Sivassanggari Tamil selvam Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS India Cements to acquire 3.63% stake in Zenataris To invest up to $2.5M in Zenataris Hybrid project supplies 11 MW to plants India Cements Ltd. has entered into energy supply and share subscription agreements to acquire a 3.62% equity stake in Zenataris Renewable Energy Pvt. Ltd., the cement producer and supplier said in a statement Oct. 16. India Cements said it will invest up to 209 million rupees ($2.5 million) in the Hyderabad-based renewable energy developer, strengthening its renewable energy portfolio. The transaction is expected to close within 120 days of the agreement's execution. Zenataris Renewable Energy is developing an Inter-State Transmission System-connected hybrid renewable energy project in Karnataka's Vijayanagara district. Under the arrangement, the special-purpose vehicle will supply 11 megawatts of renewable electricity to India Cements' plants on a group-captive basis. Market participants said the investment reflects a broader trend among cement producers to expand their use of renewable energy and other technologies to improve operational efficiency. An Asia-based trader said companies across the region are increasingly investing in renewable power generation, waste-heat recovery systems and energy-efficiency projects to reduce operating costs and advance their decarbonization goals. "Much like the recent project at UltraTech Cement's Chhattisgarh plant, the shift to renewable energy is becoming increasingly important to cement producers' long-term operating strategies," the trader said. Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, assessed ASTM Type I cement FOB Vietnam at $38/metric ton on Oct. 15, down from $39/mt the previous week. Platts assessed clinker FOB Vietnam at $36/mt, up from $33.50/mt over the same period. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/credit-trends-ratings-on-global-fertilizer-industry-largely-stable-despite-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-s101710752</link><description>This report does not constitute a rating action. The ongoing effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Chinaâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99;s continued nitrogen- and phosphate-based fertilizer export restrictions are creating structural supply deficits. Deteriorating farmer affordability, driven by high nitrogen and phosphate costs relative to softening grain prices, is eroding global demand measurably. Urea prices have normalized since the highs in April, but phosphate economics remain challenged due to a severe global</description><title>Credit Trends: Ratings On Global Fertilizer Industry Largely Stable Despite Strait Of Hormuz Conflict</title><pubDate>16 October 2026 15:17:41 GMT</pubDate></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/101626-eu-leaders-urge-faster-carbon-market-reform-to-curb-price-volatility</link><description>EU leaders have called on lawmakers to speed up reform of the carbon market&amp;apos;s key supply management mechanism and an updated assessment of a new emissions trading scheme, as Brussels seeks to balance climate ambitions against mounting pressure to shore up industrial competitiveness. The conclusions from the Oct. 15-16 European Council summit, adopted in the early hours of Oct. 16, direct the</description><title>EU leaders urge faster carbon market reform to curb price volatility</title><pubDate>16 October 2026 12:03:25 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Eklavya Gupte</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Emissions, Carbon October 16, 2026 EU leaders urge faster carbon market reform to curb price volatility By Eklavya Gupte Editor: Anoop Menon Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS MSR threshold debate splits Parliament and states Commission to update full impact assessment of ETS2 Summit conclusions tie ETS reform to competitiveness agenda EU leaders have called on lawmakers to speed up reform of the carbon market's key supply management mechanism and an updated assessment of a new emissions trading scheme, as Brussels seeks to balance climate ambitions against mounting pressure to shore up industrial competitiveness. The conclusions from the Oct. 15-16 European Council summit, adopted in the early hours of Oct. 16, direct the European Parliament to "accelerate" ongoing legislative talks on the Market Stability Reserve, the mechanism that controls the supply of carbon allowances in the EU Emissions Trading System, with the explicit aim of "moderating" what leaders described as "excessive price volatility," according to the summit text. The summit conclusions frame the push for reform squarely within the EU's broader competitiveness agenda, with leaders reiterating the need for a carbon market that is "well-functioning, transparent and predictable," while also effectively protecting European industry against carbon leakage. Leaders stopped short of calling for a weakening of the ETS itself, stressing the need to preserve "the essential role of the ETS in the climate and energy transition through a market-based price signal for carbon emissions that drives investment and innovation," according to the conclusions. This comes as the European Commission proposed a broad overhaul of the EU carbon market on July 17, including changes to the rate at which the overall emissions cap is reduced each year, reforms to the MSR, an expansion of coverage in existing sectors, and the inclusion of new industries within the system. EU Allowance prices have been volatile this year, ranging from â¬60/metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent to â¬90/mtCO2e, amid political pressure on the carbon market and higher energy prices driven by the war in the Middle East. Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, assessed EU Allowances for December 2026 at â¬86.12/mtCO2e Oct. 15. MSR debate EU member states agreed on Sept. 23 to double the threshold at which allowances are automatically cancelled, from 400 million to 800 million, effective Jan. 1, 2031, while suspending the invalidation mechanism entirely until end-2030. The European Parliament has taken a different position, backing a lower threshold of 650 million allowances effective Feb. 1, 2027, and rejecting the commission's earlier proposal to scrap automatic cancellation altogether. The Council is hoping to conclude negotiations with the Parliament on the MSR file by end-2026. The MSR was introduced in 2019 to address a persistent oversupply of allowances in the EU carbon market that had suppressed prices and undermined the system's ability to incentivize decarbonization investment. The MSR works by automatically adjusting the volume of allowances in circulation based on the total number held in the market. Reforms to its intake and cancellation rates have been a recurring source of debate among member states and the European Parliament. ETS2 assessment The European Council also directed the commission to update its assessment of all impacts of ETS2, with a particular focus on its design and safeguards. This signals continued unease among member states about the potential burden of ETS2 on households and small businesses from rising fuel and gas costs, an issue that has dogged the scheme since its adoption. ETS2 extends carbon pricing to road transport, buildings and small businesses outside the existing EU ETS, directly affecting households through higher fuel and heating costs. The market targets a 42% reduction in emissions from 2005 levels by 2030, with allowance supply expected to tighten in the years following launch. The launch of ETS2 was delayed from 2027 to 2028 to provide additional time for affected sectors and member states. The postponement also occurred amid lingering concerns that ETS2 could lead to substantial increases in energy prices, highlighting the complex interplay between ambitious climate objectives and economic realities. So far, only 13 of the 27 member states have enacted the necessary rules in their national law. This also comes as early ETS2 allowance auctions are set to begin in 2027, a year before the market's formal start, with the aim of providing liquidity and enabling long-term hedging. ETS2 will run in parallel to the existing EU ETS, and the supply of allowances is expected to tighten in the year or two after launch. ETS2 targets a 42% reduction in emissions by 2030 from 2005 levels. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/060324-interactive-platts-global-bunker-fuel-cost-calculator</link><description>The Platts global bunker fuel cost calculator shows how Platts price assessments for methanol, ammonia, LNG, bioblends and conventional oil-based fuels can be used to calculate the cost of marine fuels around the world, taking into account the EU Emissions Trading System and adjusted for energy density to put them on an equal footing.</description><title>Interactive: Platts global bunker fuel cost calculator</title><pubDate>15 September 2026 13:30:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Max Lin</name><name>Rowan Staden-Coats</name><name>Abhishek Anupam</name><name>Sophie Byron</name><name>Esther Ng</name><name>Megan Gildea</name><name>Santiago Canel Soria</name></author><content><![CDATA[ October 16, 2026 INTERACTIVE: Platts global bunker fuel cost calculator By Max Lin, Rowan Staden-Coats, Abhishek Anupam, Sophie Byron, Esther Ng, Megan Gildea, and Santiago Canel Soria Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... (Latest update Oct. 16, 2026) The Platts global bunker fuel cost calculator shows how Platts price assessments for methanol, ammonia, LNG, bioblends and conventional oil-based fuels can be used to calculate the cost of marine fuels around the world, taking into account the EU Emissions Trading System and adjusted for energy density to put them on an equal footing. Click here to explore in full-screen mode. Methanol blend Shipping firms are struggling to acquire sustainable methanol due to its scarcity, and some industry participants suggest blending the green fuel with existing gray methanol could alleviate the shortage for now. The Platts sustainable-gray methanol price slider uses the month average prices of delivered sustainable methanol bunker and FOB gray methanol in the US Gulf plus logistics cost to show a representation of the blended price of marine methanol. Biofuel blend Bioblends are emerging as the top choice as an alternative marine fuel for conventional ships as regulators introduce new rules to lower greenhouse gas emissions from shipping. The Platts UCOME-VLSFO price slider uses the month average prices of FOB Straits used cooking oil methyl ester plus logistics cost and delivered 0.5%S marine fuel oil to show a representation of the blended price of biobunker fuels. LNG blend LNG, with its accessibility and competitive pricing, has long been the most used alternative marine energy for shipowners willing to invest in alternative propulsion technology. A growing number of companies operating LNG-capable ships are introducing bio-LNG into their bunker mix for deep decarbonization, and market participants suggest the more expensive green fuel could be blended with fossil LNG -- possibly through mass balance -- for lower fuel expenses. The Platts bio-gray LNG bunker price slider uses monthly average delivered bunker prices of bio- and fossil LNG in Rotterdam to show a representation of the blended price of marine LNG. Further reading: PATH TO NET ZERO: Shipping companies face slow low-carbon bunker transition IMO seeks Net-Zero Framework deal as support grows for GHG standards ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/blog/energy-transition/101626-eu-institutions-split-on-scope-of-cbam-expansion</link><description>The EU&amp;apos;s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) entered its definitive phase in January, applying potential carbon costs to imports of steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizer, electricity and hydrogen based on their embedded emissions. </description><title>EU institutions split on scope of CBAM expansion</title><pubDate>16 October 2026 06:56:18 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Max Mucenic</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Metals &amp; Mining, Electric Power, Energy Transition, Ferrous, Non-Ferrous, Hydrogen October 16, 2026 EU institutions split on scope of CBAM expansion By Max Mucenic Editor: Roma Arora Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) entered its definitive phase in January, applying potential carbon costs to imports of steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizer, electricity and hydrogen based on their embedded emissions. Currently, CBAM covers semi-finished materials, such as crude steel and unwrought aluminum, while finished products made from those materials are typically excluded due to the greater complexity in determining their embedded emissions. However, EU policymakers have proposed expanding CBAM to cover certain finished goods starting in 2028. The expansion is aimed at preventing buyers from circumventing CBAM by importing finished goods instead of the CBAM-impacted materials they are made from. The volume of trade up for consideration is substantial. According to S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence's Global Trade Atlas (GTA), products currently floated for the CBAM scope expansion accounted for over $255 billion of EU imports in 2025, about 2.5 times the $103 billion in imports covered in CBAM's initial scope. Three institutions, three lists The European Commission, the EU Council and the European Parliament have each advanced distinct proposals to expand CBAM to finished goods. While the proposals overlap across machinery, electrical equipment, vehicles, household metal goods, tools, fittings and furniture, they differ on other goods, including turbines and medical equipment. Now that all three proposals are on the table, the EU legislative bodies will begin trilogue negotiations over the final scope of the CBAM expansion. According to GTA data, 24% of the total trade value occurs in products common to all three proposals. The remaining 76%, representing over $194 billion in annual EU imports, is contested across the three proposals. Related podcast: ENERGY EVOLUTION PODCAST: Inside CBAM's first year: what traders, importers and policymakers learned Clear path forward for some products The goods included in all three proposals have the clearest path to entry into CBAM, as all three institutions already agree to their inclusion. Some of the largest categories by trade value are commercial vehicles, metal furniture, automotive gearboxes, aluminum road wheels, machinery parts, insulated electrical wires and vehicle suspension systems, according to GTA. For manufacturers and importers of these goods, the focus turns to whether suppliers can deliver verified emissions data. Uncertainty dominates expansion Most goods up for inclusion are not common to all three proposals. The Council's proposal in June expanded the scope of the Commission's proposal to include boilers, turbines, furnaces and saw blades. Notably, it also proposed removing medical equipment, such as needles, from the Commission's initial list. Parliament's list, adopted in September, went even further, bringing the total number of products to over 400 by adding railroad components, power transmission equipment, air conditioners and solar and wind power generation equipment. In contrast to the Council, it proposed expanding the Commission's list of medical and surgical instruments rather than removing it. US exposure depends more heavily on contested products China, the US, Turkey, the UK and Japan supplied about 73% of the EU's 2025 imports of goods up for inclusion, according to GTA. While exporters in each of these countries will be affected by product expansion, the impact of the negotiations will vary by country depending on each country's product mix. About 92% of the US' $46.2 billion exposure comes from contested goods, particularly gas turbine components proposed by the EU Council and medical equipment proposed by the Parliament. This makes the US exporter position especially uncertain until trilogue negotiations produce a final product list. By contrast, about half of Turkey's $24.5 billion in trade exposure comes from goods common to all three proposals, primarily vehicles and vehicle parts, providing a better indication of how their exports will fare under the CBAM expansion even while the trilogue is still ongoing. Implementation challenges ahead After agreeing on the expanded scope, the Commission will still need to determine default emissions values and carbon accounting methodologies for the newly added products. Collecting verified emissions data may be harder for more complex finished goods than for the materials in CBAM's initial scope. The Commission has recognized this challenge and proposed not imposing dissuasive markups on the default emissions values for finished goods. The markups range from 1% to 30% for existing CBAM products. The proposals establish a direction of travel toward extending CBAM further down manufacturing supply chains. Negotiations over the goods covered and the emissions-accounting rules will determine the scale and cost of that expansion. Go deeper: The S&amp;P Global Energy CBAM Scenario Planner enables users to estimate potential CBAM compliance costs by product and country of origin under different economic and carbon-price scenarios. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/podcasts/look-forward/what-private-markets-are-telling-us-about-the-future-of-investing</link><description>In this episode, host Aries Poon is joined by Jocelyn Lewis and Chris Sparenberg, hosts of S&amp;amp;P Global&amp;apos;s Private Markets 360Â° podcast to discuss their series namesake, Private Markets. Together, the trio to unpacks why Private Markets continues to gather so much attention, as well as the themes that have emerged throughout 2026 and beyond.</description><title>Look Forward | Episode 40: What Private Markets Are Telling Us About the Future of Investing</title><pubDate>15 October 2026 17:00:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Aries Poon</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Look Forward 15 October 2026 Look Forward | Episode 40: What Private Markets Are Telling Us About the Future of Investing By Aries Poon In this episode, host Aries Poon is joined by Jocelyn Lewis and Chris Sparenberg, hosts of S&amp;P Global's Private Markets 360Â° podcast to discuss their series namesake, Private Markets. Together, the trio unpacks why private markets continue to gather so much attention, as well as the themes that have emerged throughout 2026 and beyond. More From the S&amp;P Global For more from Jocelyn and Chris, check out Private Markets 360Â°. To listen to the Look Forward podcast, you can find us on Apple and Spotify. The Look Forward Podcast is powered by the S&amp;P Global Institute. The S&amp;P Global Institute is the center for enterprise-wide thought leadership that brings together expertise from across S&amp;P Global to provide insights on the trends reshaping markets, industries, and the global economy. View Full Transcript Aries Poon: [00:00:00] Hello and welcome to the Look Forward podcast powered by the S&amp;P Global Institute, the platform for enterprise thought leadership across S&amp;P Global. I'm Aries Poon. I'm leading the analysis team for Asia Pacific and Latin America in the Market Intelligence division, and I will be your host today Markets are moving faster, risks are shifting, and decision-makers need foresight. In this podcast, we bring you expert perspectives from across S&amp;P Global on the macroeconomic, market, energy, and technology forces shaping what comes next and helping you navigate uncertainty and look forward with confidence. Today, we are taking a closer look at one of the most dynamic areas of global finance, private markets. Joining me today are Jocelyn Lewis and Chris Sparenberg, co-hosts [00:01:00] of S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence Private Markets 360 podcast. Throughout 2026, they've interviewed some of the industry's leading investors, allocators, lenders, consultants, and private market executives, gathering perspectives from across private equity, private credit, secondary, real assets, and also institutional investing. Today, we will go behind the microphone to discuss why private markets continue to attract so much attention, and also the themes emerging from the conversations this year and what investors should be watching as we head toward 2027. Jocelyn, Chris, welcome. Chris Sparenberg: Thank you so much for having us. Jocelyn Lewis: Aries, we're thrilled to be here. Thank you so much for having us. Aries Poon: Likewise. So for listeners who may not be familiar with Private Markets 360, tell us more about the podcast and why you launched it. Jocelyn Lewis: Sure, we'd love to. I'll start [00:02:00] off. So Private Markets 360 was created in 2023 to bring together different perspectives from across the private markets ecosystem. We found there's no shortage of commentary on the public markets, but the private markets were more so behind the scenes, despite becoming an increasingly important source of capital and opportunity. So what we wanted to do was to create a platform where investors, managers, lenders, and advisors can share how they're navigating this rapidly evolving landscape. And our core objective was to hear directly from those that are actually allocating capital and building businesses so that our listeners can better understand what's actually happening beneath the headlines. Chris Sparenberg: And we've been incredibly fortunate to get such a diverse set of guests on the show, and we've done relatively little outreach to even do that. They've come to [00:03:00] us to come and, and tell their stories. It's fortunate because we cover, as you mentioned up, up top, a number of different asset classes and, uh, investor and firm types. We see a lot of recurring themes within that, and I think every year guests kind of glom around a, a single theme or s- a, a cluster of like themes, but they all have different perspectives on it. So every episode's a little bit different. We get to learn about a new firm, a new personality within the space, and again, a new perspective on what's happening. Uh, by way of example, we've had a few conversations about credit this year, but each one has been a little bit different. We're seeing a move away from direct lending and more into asset-backed finance. We're seeing all of our GP clients speaking a lot more to the wealth audience, um, and we're seeing a lot of nuanced takes on what the deal environment looks like and how each firm is navigating it. So it's been really helpful to speak to so many firms globally. Um, I think the allocator perspective is really helpful here as well, and we've had [00:04:00] quite a few of those guests on in the recent past. And again, every time we record, we learn something new, and Jocelyn and I are constantly pinching ourselves and saying, "We don't, we don't really deserve guests this great," and, and yet we're really fortunate to have so many of them. Aries Poon: So after speaking with more than, I guess, fifty leaders across private markets, what stands out to you most? Like, what have you learned from these conversations that, um, investors outside the industry might not appreciate? Maybe Jocelyn, you would go first. Jocelyn Lewis: Aries, one of the biggest lessons that we've heard repeatedly is that value creation has changed. Where historically private equity firms could generate strong returns through a mix of financial engineering, there were falling interest rates for a while, as well as multiple expansion. And what we've heard from guests this year is that those levers are much less reliable today than they were in the past. Uh, for example, when we spoke with Bob Behlke [00:05:00] of Level Minnick, much of our discussion really focused on the importance of specialization and domain expertise rather than relying on broad market trends. We talked about how successful investors are developing deep sector knowledge, and they're building strong relationships within their industries, and that helps their portfolio companies navigate growth and transformation. And similar to that, in our conversation with Mark Sautier of Equity Group Investments, the discussion centered around scaling businesses sustainably and creating enduring value through leadership, culture, operational excellence, and short-term financial optimization. And we also explored this theme in Building Better Businesses, where guest Catherine Petty from CVC focused on operational expertise, execution, and creating [00:06:00] value at the portfolio company level. And that theme surfaced repeatedly in our conversations, really regardless of the strategy, geography, or asset class. Aries Poon: So that is a significant shift, right? Because value now has to be built much more deliberately inside the business. So Chris, if operational execution is becoming more important, how are data and technology changing the way investors identify, underwrite, or even manage those opportunities? Chris Sparenberg: I think it's fair to say that one recurring theme, uh, with all of our guests is that we're in the era of data-driven investing. It's not just about how you source, uh, deals now, it's about the quality of your underwriting, your approach to valuations, and on the allocator side, it's about better understanding your exposure, risk factors, and drivers of return. Of course, a lot of this is done around the topic of liquidity, and that's where GPs and LPs are having a meaningful conversation today for very [00:07:00] understandable reasons. But data's at the heart of everything. Uh, we spoke to Sarah Samuels at NEPC about the convergence narrative that's happening between public and private assets, especially in the credit space. It's also happening, uh, between asset managers and institutional and now wealth investors. So the way products are structured, the way risk is measured, the way returns are reported, uh, is really being put under the microscope, and better data and better tools are, are really kind of helping drive that change. Being also, I guess, in the era of AI and automation, and being able to take in and process more data makes it that much more important. It's leveling the playing field among parties, and it's leading to, uh, much richer conversations in, you know, fundraising or even just, um, annual general meetings, uh, where both parties are coming with a tremendous amount of additional data, and they're asking much deeper questions. We also talked to Nicholas Brooks at ICG, who takes this, I believe, a step further in putting the [00:08:00] macroeconomic context over everything, over every decision being made by the firm, the way they talk about themselves, the way they think about their portfolio, and the way they guide action at the investment level. So I think the key message really is better information supports better decisions, but it's important to remember that those decisions are made at the deal level, they're made when you're reporting, and they're made when investors are making a decision of where to commit their next dollar. Aries Poon: So the real advantage is not technology on its own, but also technology sharpening human judgment. So Jocelyn, that need for better information and disciplined judgment is especially relevant in private credit. So how has that market evolved? Jocelyn Lewis: The private credit market just continues to evolve, and even we've noticed some patterns through the conversations that we've had this year where the conversation continued to be more interesting. [00:09:00] And like Chris mentioned, there was more conversation about the need for data. But I think early on, the discussions were really focused on private credit in the form of this attractive yield environment. And then as the year progressed, the conversations became a lot more nuanced, where we recorded Enduring Fundamentals in Global Private Credit with Matt Harvey from PGIM. We discussed the durability of the asset class and really the importance of discipline, underwriting, and downside protection, rather than simply chasing returns. And for anyone who's been in private credit for a lot of their career, that doesn't sound new. But as we all know, that people need to exper- have these experiences to then have the conversation about it and learn from. And then later in our episode, NAV Finance Demystified and How [00:10:00] Strategic Capital is Shaping Private Equity with Dane Graham from Seventeen Capital, we explored how private credit managers are providing increasingly customized liquidity solutions and strategic capital to sponsors when traditional financing options may be less efficient or less available. And then most recently, we had a conversation with Melanie Lavigne from Davidson Kempner, and the discussion centered around how experienced investors are navigating through market dislocations. They're identifying relative value opportunities and deploying capital where that complexity or uncertainty really creates that attractive risk-adjusted return for investors to really jump on when that situation presents itself. And through all of these conversations, we unpacked where attractive relative value opportunities lie and how managers create their edge, or they're [00:11:00] differentiating themselves from others, and how investors think about liquidity and risk, and where we c- and where they can deploy private capital and provide solutions that more traditional sources of financing can't anymore. Um, it's the, the regional banks have really kind of gone away, and now others are stepping in those shoes to fulfill the needs that really exist in that sector of the market. Um, and really by the second half of the year, private credit, it just felt less like people were still referring to it as an emerging asset class, and everybody was really now saying that it's more of a highly sophisticated ecosystem with specialized strategies, differentiated manager skillsets, and a growing ability to provide flexible capital solutions across different market cycles. Aries Poon: That sounds like a market entering a more mature phase where selectivity, specialization, [00:12:00] and the right structure matter as much as growth. So Chris, uh, coming back to you. So alongside that evolution in strategies, the investor base is also changing. So what are you hearing about the rise of private wealth? Chris Sparenberg: Yeah. So private wealth is, I mean, that's been another consistent theme on the show, and, um, private wealth is, I think, in the early stages of really accessing this asset class, and we expect to see a considerable amount of allocation changes continuing to increase, uh, from that group of investors. The way that we see market participants responding to that has been overall, uh, not just about creating access, not just about, you know, uh, really accessing those, those channels themselves. It's about education. It's about telling the story about the types of vehicles, the strategies, things that are gonna have a lot in common with what investors are used to in, in public markets, and things that are completely nuanced and much different. Um, we've spoken to a number of, of guests who [00:13:00] are, uh, coming at this in different ways. We spoke to Kurt Nye at MAI Capital. He's really focused more from the advisor perspective on creating the right vehicles, selecting managers, providing diligence, and also education to wealth owners to help them get exposure to these asset classes. And then we've spoken to a few asset managers who are doing the same in terms of educating the market and not just telling stories about themselves, their firms, and their reach, but also the particular nuances in areas where they invest and why-- how that, that impacts allocation and return expectations, but also why it matters, why it's important. So when we spoke to Peter Alaprantas at EQT, we talked about EQT's global perspective. They're present in a number of different asset classes. They're in the real asset space, they're in credit, they're in buyouts. They're even now in kind of the fund of funds or the multi-fund solutions, uh, segment, and provide a number of on, on-ramps for wealth investors to get exposure, but also to choose their exposure and to make sure [00:14:00] they understand what it is they're participating in. We did the same with Jeff Deal at Adam Street, where we spoke a lot more about private credit specifically, but, you know, beyond the headlines, and I don't know that private credit gets much, uh, much nuanced coverage, it tends to be all one way. We got a really good look into the Adam Street process and the importance of selectivity when deploying capital and discipline in the market, and the ability and kind of the courage to move away from spaces that are getting too hot and look for others that are more reliable, more durable, and, you know, achieve the same goals that they're offering to investors. So it's been a really broad conversation, but really good to have a number of voices from across the industry helping us navigate it. And I hope that for those of our listeners who are wealth investors themselves or interested in this space, it's been really helpful as a guide through what is becoming a really popular part of the market. Aries Poon: So Chris, I'm curious, so after more than fifty conversations, was there one idea that [00:15:00] kept resurfacing regardless of who you were speaking with? Chris Sparenberg: I think the, the one idea that's pervasive across all of our episodes is that this is an industry, you know, led by professionals. And so you get a lot of kind of, I call them cardiac events in, in, in the news flow, right? You really only hear about things that are bad or things that are big. You don't get a pulse on what's happening day to day. You don't get to know the people behind the products, the assets, the deals, the funds. And what's come out time and again in each of these conversations has been just how expert these operators are, how unique their views on the market are, and how, um, you know, how professionalized the, the industry truly is. And I just don't know that you get that when you're, when you're flipping open any one newspaper to get a single article. So throughout we've seen, you know, um, interest rates are high, that's creating pressure on deals. Here's how we're dealing with it. Here's our approach to structuring deals. Here's how [00:16:00] we're working to provide liquidity to investors. On the advisor side, it's, it's very much the same. Uh, you know, this isn't the first time we've seen as a, as an industry high interest rates, um, or mismatches in, in valuations. They have a real expertise and kind of a, a learned experience of how to deal with those environments and how they advise their clients. And a lot of that comes out when we have these conversations, and I think it's great for our audience. Aries Poon: So let's talk about surprises 'cause we've been hearing a consistent emphasis on, uh, discipline, execution, resilience. But looking back across all of those conversations, um, what surprised you most? Jocelyn. Jocelyn Lewis: Well, one of the things that was surprising is really despite a lot of these headlines that are coming out about private markets, even private credit with the default rates increasing, there was really a lot of optimism that we were [00:17:00] hearing from investors, and that wasn't just blind optimism. It was really thoughtful and disciplined, which gets back to some of the themes that we heard, but it kind of brings it together. And many guests really acknowledged that there were challenges ranging from these higher interest rates to geopolitical uncertainty. You know, you had liquidity constraints and even the market volatility, but very few of our guests really viewed those factors as reasons to sit out and be on the sidelines. They were all really focused on, "How do I navigate through this, be more selective about the investments that I'm making, and then create the returns that I set out to create and share with my investors what I've been able to do despite all these challenges?" Uh, one of the examples is when we had the conversation with Ilona Gornyk from Churchill. A lot [00:18:00] of that conversation focused on risk management, resilience, and relationship-driven investing. And what stood out was that successful investors weren't trying to avoid that uncertainty again, but they were really building the right processes and partnerships that allowed them to more easily navigate through it, whether it was for them being a lender, having those relationships with those sponsors, or even having the right relationships within a specific sector in order to get that extra level of diligence that could really make or break a deal for them. So resilience was one thing that just really surprised me throughout the year. Aries Poon: Chris, what about you? Chris Sparenberg: Well, I'll follow on there. We spoke to David Hedalen at Aviva Investors, and I almost feel like you could just plug in that episode here rather than have me answer because he did such a wonderful job explaining it and talking about resilience. Whether the [00:19:00] market's good or bad, you're still a real estate investor, or you're still a credit manager, you're still a buyout GP, and that just means that it changes the way you approach the market. So you can't run the same plays in twenty twenty-six that you ran in two thousand and six. That's fine. You have to work harder to source off-the-run deals. You have to structure and underwrite differently. Maybe you have to work harder to, to locate the right opportunities, but ultimately, they exist. And so we see a lot of evolution happening within these strategies. And again, that's why it's been great to come on and have thirty, forty-five-minute conversations with these managers to get their views on the market, and the same with asset owners, to be, to be perfectly honest. Um, conditions change, but the mission does not, and the way that results are achieved might also have to change. And I think the very best managers are out doing that. They're constantly innovating and tinkering. They're being more disciplined when, um, when it's called for, and they're looking for deals they may not have, uh, ultimately done in the past as a way to efficiently deploy capital [00:20:00] and drive returns. Aries Poon: So were there other themes that emerged, uh, repeatedly? Jocelyn Lewis: Yeah. Another theme was the increasing importance of partnerships and partnerships at many different levels. Um, the episode with Rachel Barton from Accenture was a really good one to speak about these partnerships. We talked about how successful organizations bring together data, technology, and human expertise, but in new ways. And whether the topic was investment management, operations, or client engagement, there was a strong emphasis on collaborating and using technology to augment decision-making rather than replace it, because if you have new tools at your disposal, you need to look and see what they can do, try them out, and then figure out what works best in the process that you've [00:21:00] designed and are looking to achieve and help you get to the best outcome possible. Chris Sparenberg: Another one would be perspective and long-term thinking. So we talked about how to deal with the conditions of today, but it's important to note that it's not just about deploying capital today, it's deploying today for long-term returns. Uh, and we spoke to a number of guests who, who covered this. A few to point out, though, David Fann at VSS, um, pointed out something that I think is timeless, and that is specialization tends to produce better results than generalization. And we went really deep into the importance of sector expertise, disciplined execution, and again, despite what might be happening in the deal environment or the exit environment, those factors matter considerably, and you want experts overseeing those, those portions of your, your portfolio. We also talked to Adam Cady and Klaus Hassberger at Lazard, um, where we got a great global outlook and the, it, you know, another reminder of the importance of maintaining [00:22:00] a long-term horizon in your thinking, but also being comparative and understanding what's happening in a given deal environment, whether that's asset class or geographic jurisdiction, um, or with the types of deal structures and how they perform comparatively. So it really is that ability to zoom out and to think very long term. You do have to execute in the near term on whatever terms the market environment offers, but you have to do all of that with an eye toward how these things will play out, um, how your investment philosophy remains durable, and ultimately, how you're a good steward of capital. Aries Poon: So the audience today at the Look Forward podcast, uh, is fortunate enough to hear the lowdown of all the conversations, you know, you two have had with, with, uh, with, with, with your guests, um, over the years. But so if you really had to... if you had to summarize all this wisdom from your guests in one single sentence, what would that be? Jocelyn Lewis: I would say that [00:23:00] the era of easy returns may be behind us, but the opportunity set in private markets remains incredibly compelling for investors who are disciplined, data-driven, and willing to take that long-term investment view. Chris Sparenberg: And I'd say that the best investors aren't waiting for or even just reacting to uncertainty. They're building durable and scalable businesses that survive and thrive in any market conditions and can adapt when needed. Aries Poon: Thanks. And that combination of optimism and adaptability is a useful place to turn to the outlook, which is the last segment of today's podcast. So based on everything you've heard this year, what are you watching most closely as we move into 2027? Jocelyn Lewis: I'm certainly watching this continued evolution of private credit. If there's one takeaway from our [00:24:00] conversations this year from the likes of Matt Harvey from PGIM, Dane Graham from Seventeen Capital, Melanie Levine from Davidson Kempner, they're all about how private credit is becoming more specialized, strategic, and increasingly important as a source of flexible capital. I'm watching the liquidity solutions, secondaries, how those are going to play out, 'cause that's still relatively new for private credit, and also how continuation vehicles fit into the ecosystem. Um, some of the most interesting conversations that we've had this year centered around how investors are creating flexibility in an environment where traditional exit markets remain slower than many had previously expected. And I also think that manager selection becomes even more important now, with one of the recurring themes that we've heard from guests this year is that we're moving [00:25:00] into this more differentiated market environment where operational expertise, specialization, sourcing advantages, and the ability to really create value just become more and more important. And with private markets continuing to grow and mature, identifying those managers that have truly differentiated capabilities will really be critical for investors. Chris Sparenberg: And I think the three themes that I'll continue to watch, and certainly on a daily basis we, we, we get a lot of updates here, uh, would be the move toward private wealth, certainly. We're seeing more on-ramps come to market, more advisors offering tailored or bespoke options for investors participating in that space, and yet more, uh, innovation in the types of vehicles that are offered. So we're going to see more wealth participation, and with that we're going to get more headlines, and it's gonna be really interesting to watch. Um, one [00:26:00] thing that even as S&amp;P we're talking to clients about all day and every day is AI adoption across the space. So we're of course interested in understanding how we can help our GP clients, um, you know, use our tools more efficiently, access more data, and make better decisions. But then ultimately that impacts how they execute and then how they report to their LP clients or, and to our LP clients. And so, um, we'll continue to see innovation there. Uh, we have a vested interest in supporting that transition and, uh, you know, we'll, we'll see no shortage of new and novel ways that it's deployed. Uh, and then lastly, it's the concept or really the theme of convergence. And so beyond the wealth and institutional convergence, we're seeing this happen, uh, in, in a more focused way in the credit space. So vehicles holding both public and private assets, um, but even private credit products, uh, like investment grade starting to look and feel a lot more like what the market is used to on the public side. I think that continues as well, and we're certainly [00:27:00] keeping a very close eye on it. Aries Poon: So after all these conversations, are you more optimistic about the future of private markets, or actually you're getting more cautious? Jocelyn Lewis: More optimistic for sure. And it's not because the risks have disappeared. There'll always be different types of risks that come into the picture, but the industry is just getting better and better at adapting to these risks and bringing solutions to the market in order to solve for the needs of their portfolio companies and also create returns for their investors. It's that s- continued theme of resilience and adaptability. Chris Sparenberg: I completely agree. Jocelyn and I also do this for a living, so we are, we are naturally very optimistic people, and we, we love the clients and the asset class that we work in. Um, but I also think that, you know, [00:28:00] uh, as these trends continue to emerge, you're, you're always going to see public markets in a time of challenge or hedge funds. Now we're seeing private markets, at least in, in the context of news headlines and some segments of the market face challenges. It's an adaptable and, and resilient space. This is what breeds innovation. This is what I think causes the market to learn more about some of these asset classes, and I think all of those things are fundamentally positive, uh, over the long term. Aries Poon: Thank you. And, uh, before we wrap this up, I have one last question. So what would be the biggest takeaway you would like listeners to leave with? Jocelyn Lewis: The biggest takeaway is that private markets are no longer a niche corner of the investment landscape. They're continuously evolving as an important part of how capital is raised, allocated, and managed globally. You know, it's funny, one of our colleagues, he used to refer to private markets as kind of the [00:29:00] sleepy part of the ecosystem just because there wasn't as much coverage on it, and especially when you have a fixed income background, like there's just so much going on in that space constantly that private markets can completely feel sleepy compared to that. But they're just really not. They're really evolving, and we've just had such great conversations with our guests that are really in the thick of it. Um, and it, it's been really, really interesting to, to hear from them. Chris Sparenberg: Yeah. And it's been opaque for a long time, which is how I think it gets mistaken as being sleepy. But now that we're in the era of data standardizations, AI, and I think again, rising sophistication for all market participants, we're going to see the trends, the technology adoption, growth in private credit, other red-hot parts of the market which we didn't really touch on today, like infrastructure, um, continue to be really big themes. [00:30:00] And we'll see new forms of capital formation as wealth gets involved and as some of the vehicles and points of access for the market continue, uh, to change. So a lot to look forward to here and a lot of very interesting things, I think, ahead for the industry Aries Poon: Jocelyn and Chris, co-hosts of Private Markets 360, thank you so much for joining us today. So the picture that emerges is of a private market industry entering a more demanding but also more consequential phase. Returns will depend less on easy financial conditions and more on operational execution, better information, disciplined underwriting, and the ability to adapt. And as private credit, technology, and private wealth continue to develop, what happens in private markets will increasingly shape the broader investment landscape. If you would like to hear more conversation with leaders across private equity, private credit, and the broader alternative investment ecosystem, be sure to check out Private Markets [00:31:00] 360. You can also connect with today's speakers on LinkedIn. Thank you so much for listening to the Look Forward podcast. If you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe to Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or YouTube, and we'll see you next time ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/credit-faq-assessing-europes-fiscal-trade-offs-amid-rearmament-push-s101704108</link><description>This report does not constitute a rating action. Russiaâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99;s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 ended Europeâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99;s longstanding reliance on the post-Cold War peace dividend and brought security to the forefront of the continental policy agenda. The conflicts in Russia and Ukraine and more recently the Middle East have strained transatlantic relations and prompted European policymakers to prioritize strategic autonomy. Consequently, efforts to bolster domestic defense capabilities are gaining momentum. Mos</description><title>Credit FAQ: Assessing Europe&amp;apos;s Fiscal Trade-Offs Amid Rearmament Push</title><pubDate>15 October 2026 13:51:35 GMT</pubDate></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/private-markets-360/private-markets-360-episode-51-davidson-kempners-approach-to-navigating-dislocation-in-private-markets</link><description>In this episode of Private Markets 360Â°, we welcome Melanie Levine, Partner and Global Head of Client Partnerships and Business Development at Davidson Kempner. Melanie shares her insights on how Davidson Kempner differentiates itself in the competitive landscape, the impact of current market trends on investor allocations, and what lies ahead for private markets. Melanie also discusses her journey to Davidson Kempner, from being the second hire on the fundraising team to co-managing the client</description><title>Private Markets 360Â° | Episode 51: Davidson Kempner&amp;apos;s Approach to Navigating Dislocation in Private Markets</title><pubDate>18 September 2026 04:00:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Jocelyn Lewis</name><name>Chris Sparenberg</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Podcast â18 September, 2026 Private Markets 360Â° | Episode 51: Davidson Kempner's Approach to Navigating Dislocation in Private Markets By Jocelyn Lewis and Chris Sparenberg In this episode of Private Markets 360Â°, we welcome Melanie Levine, Partner and Global Head of Client Partnerships and Business Development at Davidson Kempner. Melanie shares her insights on how Davidson Kempner differentiates itself in the competitive landscape, the impact of current market trends on investor allocations, and what lies ahead for private markets. Melanie also discusses her journey to Davidson Kempner, from being the second hire on the fundraising team to co-managing the client partnerships and business development team today. Credits: Host/Author: Chris Sparenberg and Jocelyn Lewis Guests: Melanie Levine Producer: Georgina Lee Published With Assistance From: Feranmi Adeoshun, Kimberly Olvany View Full Transcript Chris Sparenberg [00:00:00]: Welcome to Private Markets 360, your insider's guide to the world of private investments. Today, we're thrilled to have Melanie Levine, partner and global head of client partnerships and business development at Davidson Kempner, joining us. With over 2 decades at Davidson Kempner, Melanie has been instrumental in building out the firm's global sales, investor relations, client service, and product development teams. Her extensive experience across fundraising, capital formation, and business development provides a unique perspective on the evolution of alternative investments, particularly how changing investor needs and evolving market dynamics are shaping allocations across alternative investments. Today, Melanie will share her insights on how Davidson Kempner differentiates itself in the competitive landscape, the impact of current market trends on investor allocations, and what lies ahead for private markets. Melanie will also discuss her journey to Davidson Kempner, from the second hire on the fundraising team to co-managing the client partnerships and business development team today. Melanie, welcome to Private Markets 360. It's great to have you with us. Chris Sparenberg [00:01:07]: How are you? Melanie Levine [00:01:08]: Doing great. Thanks so much for having me. Jocelyn Lewis [00:01:10]: We're thrilled to have you, Melanie, and we would love to start off with you sharing a bit about your career journey and how Davidson Kempner has evolved during your 20-plus years at the firm. And if you can also share insights from your background that have shaped your approach today. Melanie Levine [00:01:32]: Sure, happy to. I'll start with my career journey. I graduated from the Wharton School undergraduate class of 2000 after spending several summers in investment banking. My last summer actually was in equity capital markets at Merrill Lynch. This was during the 1999 tech bubble. Which actually has some very interesting similarities to the current AI bubble. But during that summer, I worked very closely with institutional equity sales, just collaborating on selling IPOs and secondary offerings. And that's really where I realized that I enjoy discussing and generating investment ideas much more than traditional banking analysis and number crunching. Melanie Levine [00:02:17]: So I really took a less conventional path after graduating Wharton at that time, I declined my full-time investment banking return offer and started interviewing to pursue institutional equity sales roles exclusively. So after I graduated, I joined Goldman Sachs in institutional equity sales. I was there for about 4 and a half years. I was developing and pitching equity investment ideas to hedge fund clients during that time. I then joined Davidson Kempner in January of 2005. I first focused on expanding the firm's non-US investor base. I helped launch a new hedge fund product in mid-2005 after the firm had operated with only a single hedge fund strategy for its first 20 years. So I've spent nearly the last 22 years at Davidson Kempner building out the global sales and client service platform. Melanie Levine [00:03:11]: Across wealth and institutional clients while institutionalizing the investor experience through dedicated product management teams, communications, client service, product specialists, and product development teams. So when I think about DK's evolution over nearly 22 years, I've been part of a great growth story from about $5 billion to over $40 billion in AUM. When I joined back in 2005, we had one strategy. I was the 28th employee, and today we're approaching 500 people across 8 global offices, and we reached our peak AUM of over $40 billion. So DK's really expanded from a single strategy to a diversified global platform. We grew from our merger arbitrage and distressed debt roots into more of a global investment platform spanning credit, convertible arbitrage, long-short equity, asset-based finance, opportunistic credit, and real estate, really across the liquidity spectrum. So we've been investing for over 40 years now across multiple cycles, and we've had 3 generations of leadership. So I think of today as DK 3.0, following our 3rd successful leadership transition back in 2020. Melanie Levine [00:04:28]: So in our view, we've continued to grow without becoming asset gatherers. We've been very disciplined about growth, and alignment really remains our core focus. As a private partnership, we're 100% owned by our partners and employees and invested alongside our clients and really focused on their long-term interests. So the culture has scaled, but the DNA hasn't changed. Despite the growth, we remain rooted in teamwork, collaboration, and a commitment to our investors. You asked about career insights that I would tell my younger self. So I would really say, don't follow the herd, follow your strengths. Melanie Levine [00:05:03]: Try to be independent-minded, know what you enjoy and where your natural talents lie, and have the confidence to choose your own path. Had I followed the more traditional route that was much more conventional at that time, I would've started in investment banking rather than sales. So my career may have looked very different. Chris Sparenberg [00:05:22]: Certainly seems like it would've, and that is a tremendous amount of growth that's happened in your time with the firm. I'm interested in digging into the culture element of that. So scaling assets, scaling people, but keeping the culture intact is critical, and I'm sure it's not an easy job. Can you tell us how Davidson Kempner's culture differs from other firms and how it contributes to the firm's longevity and success in navigating various market cycles? Melanie Levine [00:05:48]: Yeah, sure. The people and the culture are the big reason why I've stayed at DK for nearly 22 years. It's really a meritocracy. People are given more responsibility as they earn it. Long tenure is really part of our DNA. So my story's not unusual. Our CIO and managing partner, as well as 4 other of my partners, even started as summer interns. And the 14 active equity partners today have an average tenure at DK of roughly 16 years. Melanie Levine [00:06:19]: So at Davidson Kempner, we really try to develop leaders from within. We hire laterally, of course, when it makes sense, but many of our leaders have grown up at the firm. So that really creates continuity while allowing the organization to evolve. And our ownership structure really creates great alignment. We're 100% privately owned, and the partnership's the largest investor across our funds. So we're really invested alongside our clients. We like to say we really drink our own wine or eat our own cooking. And that alignment also drives collaboration. Melanie Levine [00:06:51]: Partners participate in the overall economics of the firm rather than being compensated only on their individual strategy or P&amp;L. So it's very different from a pod model. So it encourages people to work across strategies, geographies, and asset classes. So we can follow opportunity and don't have just organizational silos. As markets change, we're constantly comparing relative value and we really just allocate capital where we see the most compelling risk-adjusted returns, either across geography or even across collateral type. So over 40-plus years, we've evolved without changing our investment DNA. Across market cycles, we've remained very disciplined about investing. Because we want to focus where we have the people, sourcing relationships, underwriting expertise, and really operational resources where we can create an edge. Melanie Levine [00:07:47]: But there's a constant desire to get better at DK. We're constantly re-underwriting not just our investments, but our processes, our strategies, our investment platform. So ultimately, I think our longevity really comes down to 3 things: our aligned incentives, the collaborative culture, and our long-term discipline. Chris Sparenberg [00:08:08]: That discipline has certainly helped you scale, and I'm sure the focus on self-improvement is a critical piece to all of that. Let's talk about differentiators and strategies a little bit. You mentioned Davidson Kempner operates across various alternative strategies. I know you're active in hedge funds, opportunistic credit, real estate. There are other alternatives on the platform. Can you tell us what makes DK different from other alternative managers? How do these strategies differ in how investors utilize them, and both for the specific purposes, but then also across overall portfolios? And then thinking about the global scale as well, there's a lot to take into account there. Melanie Levine [00:08:46]: Yeah, absolutely. If you start with what we think really differentiates DK, we're built to follow opportunity where it exists, not just a benchmark or a silo. So our mandate is global and flexible. So this allows us to constantly compare relative value across geographies, strategies, asset classes, and the capital structure. We believe our crossover credit capability is a real competitive advantage. We can invest across public and private markets, credit and equity, and really the liquidity spectrum gives us a wider aperture to find attractive risk-adjusted returns. So part of our DNA really is turning dislocation into opportunity. We often gravitate towards markets or situations that we believe are less trafficked, more complex, or have higher barriers to entry where experience and sourcing really can matter. Melanie Levine [00:09:44]: We've been a distressed investor since the '80s, so we're comfortable with complexity. We're comfortable with workouts, restructurings, and really enforcing creditor rights. As we like to say, we're not in the origination business, we're in the repayment business. So we really try to combine global reach with local expertise. So research-driven underwriting, operational capabilities, and really deep local sourcing relationships allow us to identify and execute these opportunities globally. So if you want to turn the discussion to how investors really use our strategies within their portfolios, in our view, we think the different DK strategies really solve different portfolio needs. So investors could use us for absolute return and risk mitigation or diversification, opportunistic credit exposure, real estate, or really access to less liquid and more complex opportunities. Melanie Levine [00:10:45]: So we think our event-driven multi-strategy approach can really serve as a portfolio ballast within a portfolio. The objective is to compound attractive returns, really with low correlation to traditional equity and credit beta and relatively low volatility. We believe that ballast can give investors room to take risk elsewhere. So many of our longtime endowment and foundation clients, some of which we started working with back in the '90s, use our more liquid strategies alongside higher-octane closed-end private market funds. So for some investors, absolute return can play a role traditionally occupied by fixed income or even cash. But globally, the portfolio may differ, but the underlying need is really similar, whether investors characterize us as hedge funds, credit, alternatives, or absolute return. We believe they're really looking to DK for diversification, the downside resilience, and really differentiated sources of return. So ultimately, I think what differentiates DK is really a combination of global and flexible mandate, that crossover credit capability, our global sourcing advantages, and the decades of experience just navigating complexity. Melanie Levine [00:12:07]: I think this gives us the ability to where we believe we can really focus on the best risk-adjusted opportunities that exist at any given market cycle. Jocelyn Lewis [00:12:18]: It really sounds like there's just a wealth of knowledge at Davidson Kempner, and you've provided a really helpful overview of what makes Davidson Kempner distinct in all the different roles that these strategies can play for your investors. with such a global and flexible mandate that you've mentioned. Melanie, building on that, let's explore how you translate that breadth into portfolio construction discussions with clients. And with so many capabilities that you've mentioned across your platform, how do you help each individual investor determine where your strategies fit in their portfolio and how Davidson Kempner fits within the broader alternatives landscape? Melanie Levine [00:13:08]: Sure. I always say that the real secret to dealing with clients is to be a really good listener. So we have to think about our strategies first and foremost by the role they can play in a client's portfolio. So really across the platform, we think our funds can be meaningful diversifiers and really durable contributors through different market cycles. Our hedge fund strategies, we believe, are risk mitigators. We also believe our closed-end strategies are diversifiers within private credit portfolios. So we believe that some investors use our hedge fund strategies as fitting within a portable alpha program. Some use us in an absolute return program, or even an alternative to portions of fixed income. Melanie Levine [00:13:54]: Our private strategies can play a different role. We believe that clients with significant direct lending exposure may use our closed-end opportunistic credit strategies as a diversifier within private credit. Similarly, we believe that investors with substantial core real estate exposure may use our opportunistic real estate strategies to diversify that allocation. So we think that structure should really match the underlying opportunity. So more liquid strategies belong in vehicles that provide appropriate liquidity, while private and less liquid opportunities are better suited for closed-end drawdown structures. So a big part of our job here is education. And again, that really does start with listening. So we need to understand what an investor is trying to accomplish and then really clearly articulate why they might own a particular DK strategy. Melanie Levine [00:14:50]: And then we determine what role it could play and really how it complements what they already own. So we like to say that we go where others retreat. Our history has been about turning dislocation into opportunity, but having the flexibility, experience, and resources to provide capital when others may be constrained or stepping away. So our consistent investment philosophy really connects the platform. All of our strategies are grounded in rigorous underwriting, downside protection, and disciplined risk assessment, really due to our credit discipline. So we believe investors will benefit from the scale and breadth of this broader DK platform. But investor education doesn't end when someone invests. It's a continuous process here. Melanie Levine [00:15:38]: We've built a robust product specialist and investor relations organization. To provide transparency and really help clients understand not only what we're investing in, but why we're making these investments. So really, if I had to summarize our place, I think we aim to provide differentiated sources of return, really thoughtful diversification, and also that disciplined downside protection. So that's really the focus across the global platform. Jocelyn Lewis [00:16:08]: I really think it's so important to really listen to clients. Chris and I can really relate to that because we're out talking with clients every day as well. And like you mentioned, they all have different needs, and especially now with the private markets just continue to evolve and expand and change over time. So it's a really great way that you've where each of your strategies fits within a portfolio and taking a step back from your platform specifically. You're also having conversations with investors globally and seeing how they're approaching today's market environment and the unique characteristics or the unique items that they're really focused on. So I'm curious how those perspectives compare across different regions and investor types. Are you seeing meaningful differences in how allocators around the world are thinking about today's investment opportunities, where they want to deploy capital and which strategies they favor, or are priorities becoming more aligned? Melanie Levine [00:17:18]: Yeah, I think I'd really categorize it as global themes with meaningful regional and investor-specific nuances. So across the board, we're hearing from clients about a greater focus on liquidity, resilience, flexibility, diversification, uncorrelated returns. So investors today are really seeking strategies that will capitalize on market dislocations, but also complement or serve as diversifiers from existing exposures. So investors are increasingly seeing benefits of absolute return strategies. Over the last 12 months, we've seen existing hedge fund allocators and consultants increasing their allocations, particularly across the institutional market. However, we're not yet seeing new entrants or those who left absolute return reentering. I'm hopeful that they will, but not yet seeing that. In private capital though, liquidity is still very scarce and it's really hard to replace an incumbent manager. Melanie Levine [00:18:23]: Regional nuances remain important, as there are regulatory considerations and different risk appetites across the globe. But we try to have conversation tailored to each investor's objectives. So we wanna showcase the breadth of our platform, but be a solution provider. We wanna really meet investors where they are. Our job is to show how when added to a portfolio, in our view, our strategies can really serve as a diversifier. So I think, really, as far as the differences between the US versus international markets, over the past 12 months, we've seen the strongest increase in hedge fund strategy allocations and liquid alts from US investors. But that said, interest is by no means limited to the US. Melanie Levine [00:19:09]: Our pipeline actually includes several sizable international allocators. So that does suggest to me that the appetite for hedge fund strategies is increasingly global and increasing globally as well. If I think about endowments and foundations versus pensions versus other institutional investors, endowments and foundations have often used Davidson Kempner as a portfolio ballast, particularly alongside their historically larger allocations to venture capital and other less liquid, higher-octane strategies. But we're starting to see the pendulum shift a bit. After several years of constrained distributions, reduced deployment, improving DPI year to date is giving some endowments and foundations greater flexibility to increase allocations to alternatives again. And really over the last 6 to 12 months, conversations have increasingly moved from managing liquidity constraints to selectively putting capital back to work while still maintaining that strong focus on liquidity and diversification. Pension funds on the public side often come at it differently. Melanie Levine [00:20:20]: Many have substantial direct lending and private market exposure in private credit. So we're generally not seeing the same appetite to simply add more illiquidity. Conversations increasingly about what is truly additive and a diversifier to what they already own. Internationally, the objectives can be similar but may differ. So there's regulation to contend with, liquidity requirements, risk appetite, governance, and then existing portfolio constructions really does vary by region. So there really isn't any one-size-fits-all solution. So that's, I think, where the breadth of our platform is helpful. So rather than starting with what products can we sell, we have to really think about what does this investor's portfolio need? And then determine whether a liquid absolute return strategy, some opportunistic credit, real estate, or another part of the platform can really address that specific investor's need. Melanie Levine [00:21:22]: So the common thread globally really is that investors are being more intentional and there's really that focus on a total portfolio. They're asking not simply, is this an attractive strategy? But you have to really think about what does this add to my total portfolio? In our view, our job is to demonstrate how a decay allocation can provide genuine diversification and really improve the overall portfolio. Chris Sparenberg [00:21:50]: And of course, all this is happening against the backdrop of a vastly different market than we were facing 20 years ago. So investors are making different decisions, but market mechanics themselves have changed. Davidson Kempner described today's environment as being the early innings of a broader capital structure reset as rates remain elevated. How do you expect this shift to influence investors' asset allocation decisions and the overall portfolio construction that they're considering? Melanie Levine [00:22:18]: So when we talk about that capital structure reset, we're really talking about the consequences of moving from the decade of cheap money to a more normalized cost of capital. So that adjustment takes time, and we think that we're still in the early innings. So for investors, that should change the portfolio construction conversation. So we believe the last decade rewarded owning beta and illiquidity. So going forward, we believe there'll be greater value in liquidity, flexibility, active management, and strategies that can really capitalize on dispersion and dislocation. So we think expectations around private credit are going to need to reset as well. Significant capital formation across direct lending has really compressed spreads and in some cases weakened lender protections. So we believe traditional private credit should increasingly be viewed more as a single-digit return asset class rather than something that consistently delivers double-digit returns. Melanie Levine [00:23:22]: But at that same time, the stress is creating opportunity. Higher rates are putting pressure on capital structures, and these capital structures were built for a very different rate environment. So extensions, PIK, liability management exercises, they all can postpone that stress, but they don't necessarily eliminate it. So that makes the flexibility across the capital structure increasingly value. So we believe the ability to move between public and private, performing and stressed, liquid and illiquid credit can provide a significant advantage as opportunities migrate from one market to another. And we believe it also makes opportunistic credit and asset-based finance increasingly interesting portfolio complements. So we're seeing investors looking beyond traditional direct lending towards strategies where collateral structure, underwriting expertise and complexity can really create differentiated sources of return. So as we also think this could be a very interesting decade for absolute return, just given the higher dispersion and higher rates, you can see more idiosyncratic winners and losers. Melanie Levine [00:24:34]: So that's an attractive backdrop for event-driven strategies that we don't really need markets to go up to generate returns. So you see that dispersion really in something like AI. It may create tremendous economic growth, but also creating winners and losers. So private market portfolios may not necessarily capture all the upside, but they could be still exposed to businesses that are disrupted. So that's another reason why you need diversification and truly active risk management. So this reset's global. But it isn't happening everywhere at the same speed. So we believe the US direct lending is highly competitive today, but parts of Europe and Asia may offer different points in the cycle, so they may be more attractive risk-reward. Melanie Levine [00:25:23]: And we believe that this global platform really allows us to widen the aperture so we don't have to force capital into the most crowded markets. So the big portfolio implication we believe will be further diversification, really beyond traditional beta and traditional private credit. So we believe the next several years could really reward investors who preserve liquidity and give managers the flexibility to really go where the dislocation is rather than trying to predict exactly where it will occur ahead of time. Chris Sparenberg [00:25:59]: It's a great point on how LPs are gearing up for, or rather, reacting to the market and its changes. And I imagine that's not even across the global landscape. But when we think about the current economic environment and the points you're making around preserving liquidity, and I would say thinking tactically a little bit more, what does that do for driving demand for strategies that DK offers? What's attracting capital that, that might not have a year ago? And what specific opportunities are you seeing on the horizon? Melanie Levine [00:26:32]: I think what's changed is that investors are really looking for strategies that can benefit from complexity rather than just simply providing market exposure. So there's been particular interest in absolute return strategies so far year to date in 2026. We've seen an increased opportunity set to invest in US liquid credit. Convertible arbitrage strategies have remained very interesting in both the US and Asia. Convertible arbitrage has been interesting over the last few years, just as we've seen increased issuance given the more normalized rate environment. But we don't think that's ending anytime soon. And we think the backdrop for absolute returns is especially compelling. And we think investors are really starting to warm up to the strategy again. Melanie Levine [00:27:17]: We've really seen that over the last 12 months, just given the higher rates, the dispersion, and the volatility. So there's been more idiosyncratic winners and losers. So this is an environment that we think favors active event-driven investing rather than just relying on markets to move all in one direction. So we've even said this in a white paper that the 2020s could be the decade of absolute return. We believe investors are increasingly focused on strategies that can offer this diversification from traditional equity and credit beta. In credit so far in 2026, I mentioned we've been excited about the US liquid opportunity set. I think this combination of maturity wall, refinancing needs, and just these capital structures adjusting to higher rates are creating more opportunity for our flexible capital. AI's been another source of dispersion, creating winners and losers. Melanie Levine [00:28:19]: So that's generated opportunities for us in areas like convertible arbitrage and credit. But the key for us is not having to predict which single opportunity will dominate. In our view, the global flexible mandate really allows us to capture these opportunities across geography, asset class, and capital structure. So we can move capital where we see the best risk-adjusted opportunities as they emerge. So I think ultimately in today's environment really is playing towards our core philosophy, turning dislocation into opportunity. So we think dispersion and complexity can create a really attractive opportunity set for disciplined event-driven investors like us. Jocelyn Lewis [00:29:08]: Thank you for joining us for this episode of Private Markets 360. Where we had the pleasure of speaking with Melanie Levine, partner and global head of client partnerships and business development at Davidson Kempner. Melanie shared invaluable insights into Davidson Kempner's diversified asset management platform, which is focused on event-driven and opportunistic credit strategies, how the firm navigates market dislocations, and how allocator priorities are evolving across the alternatives landscape. We delved into the differentiators that set DK apart globally and the changing landscape of investor demands and the shifting expectations for returns across various strategies. Melanie also highlighted the growing interest in hedge funds and the promising opportunities in asset-based lending, opportunistic credit, real estate, and absolute return strategies. If you found this episode insightful, please subscribe to Private Markets 360 for more expert discussions on private investments. Thank you to Melanie for her contributions and to our listeners for tuning in. Until next time. ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/private-markets-360/private-markets-360-episode-52-how-public-private-convergence-is-reshaping-asset-management</link><description>In this episode of Private Markets 360Â°, we welcome Laura Kirk, Head of Private Investments Capital Formation and Investor Relations at Wellington Management. Laura discusses her career journey from Goldman Sachs to Wellington; the firmâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99;s organically built private markets platform; and its approach to capital formation, fundraising, and client relationships. She also explores the evolving landscape for private markets, including public-private convergence, wealth-channel access, evergreen veh</description><title>Private Markets 360Â° | Episode 52: How Public-Private Convergence Is Reshaping Asset Management</title><pubDate>24 September 2026 04:00:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Jocelyn Lewis</name><name>Chris Sparenberg</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Podcast â24 September, 2026 Private Markets 360Â° | Episode 52: How Public-Private Convergence Is Reshaping Asset Management By Jocelyn Lewis and Chris Sparenberg In this episode of Private Markets 360Â°, we welcome Laura Kirk, Head of Private Investments Capital Formation and Investor Relations at Wellington Management. Laura discusses her career journey from Goldman Sachs to Wellington; the firmâs organically built private markets platform; and its approach to capital formation, fundraising, and client relationships. She also explores the evolving landscape for private markets, including public-private convergence, wealth-channel access, evergreen vehicles, private credit, secondaries, and the role of technology in broadening investor access. Credits: Host/Author: Chris Sparenberg and Jocelyn Lewis Guests: Laura Kirk Producer: Georgina Lee Published With Assistance From: Feranmi Adeoshun, Kimberly Olvany View Full Transcript Jocelyn Lewis [00:00:00]: Welcome to Private Markets 360, your insider's guide to the world of private investments. Today, we're thrilled to have Laura Kirk, Head of Private Investments Capital Formation and Investor Relations at Wellington Management, one of the world's largest independent asset management firms with over $1.4 trillion in assets under management. Laura joined Wellington in 2024 from Goldman Sachs, where she served in various leadership roles across asset and wealth management, and most recently as chief of staff to the firm's president and COO. Wellington's private investments platform spans venture capital, late-stage growth equity, and private credit, with over $12 billion in committed capital across over 300 investments. We're so excited to have Laura join us today to discuss her experience, the Wellington business, and what lies ahead for the private markets industry. Laura, welcome. How are you today? Laura Kirk [00:01:01]: I'm great. Thanks so much. It's great to be here with you. Chris Sparenberg [00:01:04]: Well, we're thrilled to have you, and we'd love to start off by talking about your career path a little bit. You spent roughly 15 years at Goldman Sachs across the alternatives capital formation, manager selection. Ultimately, you were the chief of staff to the president and COO. Can you talk to us about your experience there and what led you to Wellington? Laura Kirk [00:01:24]: Yeah, absolutely. It was a very difficult decision to leave Goldman after so many years. I consider myself incredibly fortunate to have professionally grown up there, and I continue to think it's a formidable firm with extremely talented people, many of whom are my great friends. I spent the first 10 years there in the external manager selection business, covering all types of firms from large publicly traded asset managers to small boutiques. And I actually started my career on the public side, and Wellington was one of the first firms that I covered. One of the benefits of Goldman's manager selection platform in the way it's structured is that the evaluation of all managers, so everything from indexing solutions to private equity, fits within one group. And not only does this provide a tremendous learning platform, but it also gave me a lot of exposure and appreciation for both the similarities and differences in how allocators evaluate managers across the public and private landscape. So when I moved into a new role at Goldman, which was focused on growing its alternatives platform, I felt that I knew a lot about how allocators think and behave, having been one myself for the prior decade. Laura Kirk [00:02:32]: And so after spending 4 years building out that capital formation effort inside of GS, I recognized that what I really enjoyed most about my time was in fact kind of that building phase. So growing the team, building out new products, challenging existing processes and really trying to encourage new ways of thinking. So when the opportunity to build and lead this team for Wellington came about, I thought that the combination of my background, having spent years as an allocator on the public side and helping to build out the fundraising operation on the private side, made me particularly well suited for this role. And as I mentioned, I was familiar with Wellington already, having been a client of the firm early in my career. I knew the firm was an institution with an incredible history and a reputation for just an outstanding culture, really focused on investment talent, and that was very attractive to me. And yet it was a firm with a very limited brand and product in private markets with an interesting opportunity for growth. So it felt like a rare opportunity to join a platform at an inflection point and kind of help shape the next phase of its journey. So while Wellington's private investing platform today is still relatively young compared to the firm's nearly century-long history, I think it's a really unique combination of entrepreneurial energy and institutional strength. Laura Kirk [00:03:44]: I was also particularly attracted to Wellington's ability to really bring together the perspectives across both public and private markets, allowing our teams to have a full-picture view to help inform investment decision-making. Jocelyn Lewis [00:03:56]: Appreciate that overview. And Laura, it seems like your transition also coincided with a period of significant growth and investment in Wellington's private markets platform, which I'm sure was a great and exciting time to join. And for listeners that might not be familiar with that function, let's unpack your mandate. So we'd love to understand from you what capital formation means in the context of a relatively young program inside an institution with Wellington's history. Laura Kirk [00:04:34]: Yeah, absolutely. It's a great question. Capital formation to me is much broader than just fundraising. So I really view it as encompassing the entire client lifecycle of how a client experiences interacting with our platform. So on the front end, this means what is our brand in the marketplace and how do we engage with the allocator community and tell our story? On the other end of the spectrum, it includes all of the elements of client service and ensuring that we're communicating with our clients in a way that's transparent and clear. And as we broaden the platform kind of beyond our flagship strategies, it also really means thinking about new product development, ensuring that we have the right packaging for the strategies that we're trying to deliver. And so in this capacity, my team works really closely with both the investment team, as well as the relationship managers in our client group to ensure that as we build, we're doing so in a way that is in line with client demand. Ultimately, I view my role as really helping to educate the allocator community about what makes Wellington special and ensuring that we're connecting the right investors with the opportunities and strategies that we offer as a firm. Chris Sparenberg [00:05:38]: Well, let's dig into those strategies a little bit. Wellington's been building its private investing platform for nearly a decade now, and you cover everything from early-stage venture to late-stage growth, and recently you've really leaned into private credit. When it comes to fundraising, what's the sequencing logic and which assets are you leading with today? Laura Kirk [00:05:58]: Yeah, so if you look at the industry and the growth over the last few years in private assets, we're one of the few firms that has chosen to build the platform organically through bringing on dedicated investment talent. And plugging those individuals and teams into Wellington's research engine. We have not pursued M&amp;A like many of our traditional peers, primarily because growth was not our primary objective. So I think core to the firm DNA is really a desire to deliver investment alpha to clients. And if that can be done with a strategy whose capacity is $1 billion versus $5 billion, then that's essentially how we've set our fundraising goals. And in that way, we've been able to build a platform very deliberately across discrete areas within these asset classes that you mentioned in the places where we have long-term conviction and unique perspective as a firm, given our investment expertise and research depth as an organization. So we've really built our capabilities anchored on 3 core tenets. So one, starting with the investment case, we have built in areas where we can identify long-term structural market opportunities. Laura Kirk [00:07:00]: Then we hire dedicated and cycle-tested talent and really plug those people into the investment ecosystem. And 3, we try to listen to our clients and what they're asking for and aim to deliver solutions that meet their needs. Jocelyn Lewis [00:07:12]: That's really helpful context on how you're positioning your platform today. And taking a step back from the fundraising strategy, I'd love to get your perspective on the broader trajectory of the business. With Wellington putting a lot of capital to work, I believe it's around 300 investments that you have, yet the firm, you're still in scale mode. So where is the platform today? And how do you see it growing over the next 3 to 5 years? Laura Kirk [00:07:42]: Yeah, so the next phase is really going to be about just continuing to expand thoughtfully while maintaining investment discipline and staying focused on areas where we believe we can add incremental value to our LPs and companies. Like I said, our approach to growth has been anchored in those core tenets, focusing on our existing strategies, as you mentioned, from early-stage venture to late-stage growth, and selective expansion into new sectors and asset classes like private credit, in particular private real estate credit, and just a continued evolution of how clients access private markets. More broadly, we think it's true we're still in the early stages of public-private convergence. We see a lot of increased client demand for integrated portfolio solutions. I think this is coming to light as we see more of an institutionalization of the wealth markets. RIAs increasingly seek similar structures and have similar needs as institutional investors. So I'd say in short, the growth of the private business is likely to come from accessing new client channels. Expanding our LP base geographically and building new products, kind of leveraging our existing investment capabilities. Chris Sparenberg [00:08:44]: It's interesting. We can follow the thread on expanding into new channels and growing the investor base with this partnership that you've announced with Vanguard and Blackstone in April of 2025. I think it generated significant interest across the industry, and we'd love for you to tell us more about it and the role that Wellington plays in that. Laura Kirk [00:09:04]: Yeah, absolutely. This is a really exciting development for us, and I think for our industry overall. As you mentioned, Wellington formed a strategic alliance with Vanguard and Blackstone to develop innovative products that target the wealth channel. And this alliance brings together what we view as 3 highly complementary organizations with distinct strengths. So Vanguard's scale, its indexing expertise, and investor reach. Obviously Blackstone's leadership in private markets and Wellington's active management capabilities and experience investing across public and private markets. So together, we're focused on developing simplified institutional-quality multi-asset solutions that really integrate public and private assets, as well as active and index strategies. Last week, in fact, we announced the launch of our first 2 funds, the WVB All Markets Fund and WVB Blackstone All Privates Fund. Laura Kirk [00:09:54]: And so for Wellington, this alliance is really a manifestation of how we've been thinking about this public-private convergence. It's one example of us innovating to help clients navigate increasingly complex markets. And we, really believe the industry is moving beyond traditional asset class silos and towards a more integrated portfolio construction framework. Chris Sparenberg [00:10:14]: And what are the dynamics of raising funds for these new vehicles? Laura Kirk [00:10:18]: Yeah, so in this case, Wellington is serving as the investment advisor. We're responsible for the portfolio construction, asset allocation decisions, and right now these funds are available to several of our private banking clients through advisors, and we do anticipate broader adoption within the RIA community. As investor demand for private market assets continues to grow, particularly among individual investors, we certainly think education is a key component of this, and we think that we can contribute to that important dialogue around these types of vehicles. Jocelyn Lewis [00:10:48]: Appreciate that overview. And this partnership is really a great example of the innovation that we're seeing across private markets as managers look to broaden investor access. And better meet the evolving needs of clients. But it's also unfolding against a fundraising backdrop that's been anything but easy over the past couple of years. So, Laura, taking a step back to survey the state of the fundraising market, 2025 was possibly one of the toughest on record, and we're starting to see deal activity recover, and we're still waiting for macro factors to resolve. But from your seat, speaking to LPs day in and day out. What are you hearing about capital commitment plans and perspectives on liquidity? Laura Kirk [00:11:38]: Yeah, certainly it's the case that many LPs have been spending a lot of time looking inward, like focusing on their existing managers, the re-ups, trying to really understand where they can expect liquidity and when. And obviously this creates a huge logjam in the system, and that's certainly not helped the fundraising environment, particularly for new managers and new entrants. At the same time, the investors that we speak with continue to view private market strategies as a strategic allocation. And so I'd say they're more focused on where they want to deploy capital rather than whether they should deploy it at all. And I think LPs are asking really good questions around liquidity, portfolio construction, and really focusing rightfully on manager differentiation. As has been talked about from many of my peers, like dispersion of outcomes is much greater in private markets, and manager selection is really critical. So we expect that in many cases fundraising efforts are just going to take a little bit longer because LPs really want to get to know us and they want to understand what we bring to the table beyond returns. Chris Sparenberg [00:12:38]: Love to dig into that a little bit, and especially the differentiation and how you compete for LP attention in that environment. From the conversations we have on this podcast to everything we're seeing in industry news and even in interactions with our clients. The fundraising stats are telling the story that the benefits are accruing to mega managers. Capital is also flowing into differentiated credit and real assets. And then we're seeing an emerging and really durable secondaries market. Can you talk to us about how you stand out and as you're building those relationships with LPs, what are some of the deeper questions they're asking? Laura Kirk [00:13:15]: Yeah, it is absolutely true that in certain asset classes, Scale does really matter. But I think in the areas of the market where we have chosen to participate to date, we do actually believe that we can differentiate and that differentiation matters even more than scale. So I would say our, advantage has been and will continue to be the ability to bring together perspectives from across the public and private markets and see really a full picture view of a given investment opportunity. I think that our teams really benefit from the expert insights and research depth that they can access across this broad global investment platform that really helps them better understand the market dynamics and opportunities. For us, what we say is that to be successful in the areas of the private markets where we participate, you have to do at least 4 things right. So number one, you have to source good deals. Number 2, you have to have differentiated insights that kind of inform the price you pay and your view of the management teams. You have to be able to size those opportunities right in your portfolio. Laura Kirk [00:14:15]: And lastly, you need to have a view on how to exit and provide liquidity to your LPs. And I think that being inside of Wellington's ecosystem really helps us across all 4 of those dimensions. We think that this kind of integrated public and private market capabilities, again, the extensive company network that we have really helps provide more informed portfolio construction and allocation decisions on behalf of our clients. Chris Sparenberg [00:14:38]: I love how you broke that down into 4 very simple steps, all of which are so important. And Laura, another thing that we're seeing, or a trend, is that fundraising was largely a battle for institutional capital. But today, one of the biggest debates in alternatives is whether the next wave of growth is going to come from the wealth channel as different investment vehicles are being built to serve it specifically. And with the rise of evergreen funds It's fundamentally reshaping how both private credit and other asset classes are being distributed to the wealth channel. And Wellington is clearly leaning into this with your evergreen buildout. So we'd love to hear where you see the real opportunity here and which parts of the market might be too frothy. Laura Kirk [00:15:32]: Yeah, clearly private investments are becoming more broadly accessible through new vehicles. Overall, that's creating a variety of opportunities to improve long-term investment outcomes for individuals, which I think is really exciting. These vehicles, as you mentioned, not only offer kind of increased access, but also provide benefits through lower minimums, greater diversification, and liquidity features. Although it's important to recognize these vehicles are definitely not liquid instruments. For us, we see an opportunity to provide individuals access to parts of the market where more value creation is happening before companies even go public. As has been widely quoted, Today, roughly 3 quarters of US companies generating more than $100 million in revenue are privately held, and that's because companies are just staying private longer than they were in the past, and they're entering the public market later in their development and at higher valuations. So waiting to invest in these companies until they go public really means missing out on a key phase of their growth trajectory. I think there's also really underappreciated diversification benefits to accessing this growth in the private market. Laura Kirk [00:16:37]: So there's been so much talk recently, obviously, about AI and these mega-cap companies, But there are companies in other sectors, so consumer, healthcare, financial services, other parts of technology that are also growing really rapidly. And it's hard to find that type of growth in the public markets that are increasingly being driven by just a handful of very large companies. We've seen a lot of product come to market over the last few years for the wealth channel and private credit and real estate. We think there's an opportunity in asset classes like venture and growth equity, which still represent a significant share of private markets, but are pretty underrepresented in the ever-growing vehicles today. As for your question around the froth, I think it's clear there's concern in certain parts of, or in certain pockets of private markets. We think it's important to distinguish structural concerns from cyclical evolution. And so even if we look at areas of private credit today where we actually do not participate, the corporate direct lending market, we don't see structural problems. In fact, this private credit market we think is only broadening in scope. Laura Kirk [00:17:33]: And we're seeing that intersection of public and private credit, which we think will provide significant tailwinds as more fixed income allocations look to incorporate private assets. Chris Sparenberg [00:17:42]: And thinking about the team that you build, how you go to market, I want to put this against the backdrop of factors that are contributing to the evolution of private capital. One we haven't covered yet is the emergence of new datasets, digital platforms, and networks that provide scaled access to the wealth channel. There's also infrastructure for asset management and investor relations emerging out there. With all these new data and tools coming to market, how do you think about building a team and equipping them to succeed in this environment? Laura Kirk [00:18:15]: Yeah, technology's obviously rapidly changing both what we need to deliver and the infrastructure that we use to deliver it. And as private markets move further into the wealth channel, for us, I think success will depend not only on investment capabilities, but also on education and access, a strong operating model around distribution and the investor experience. So that really means like building a team with a broader mix of skills across product strategy, investor relations, client education, distribution enablement, identifying platform partnerships. We definitely need people who can translate complex private market strategy into very clear narratives for advisors and clients while also building infrastructure required to support these solutions at scale. So from a go-to-market standpoint, it, often really becomes less about selling a standalone strategy and more about helping clients think through total portfolio construction, implementation, how public and private exposures can work together over time. I think the firms that will stand out are those that combine the strong investment expertise with technology, data, and a service model that's really needed to make private markets more accessible and understandable and really operationally practical for a broader set of investors. Jocelyn Lewis [00:19:28]: And that broader set of investors is definitely interested in the private markets and accessing them, I think, is really going to continue to change and evolve the private markets business. And Laura, you've really given us great perspective on how Wellington is navigating the market today, and I'd love to get your predictions for the future and how Wellington hopes to shape it. So if we look out 3 to 5 years into the future, what themes do you think will be prominent across private capital, and what role do you want Wellington to play in that evolution? Laura Kirk [00:20:09]: I think the continued convergence of public and private markets will be one of the defining themes across asset management in the years to come. We talked about the continued growth in the wealth channel and the further institutionalization of that channel, which I think will be the case. We also believe private credit is not a monolith. It will continue to evolve, offering LPs ways to further diversify their exposure. And as you mentioned, I think secondaries will continue to mature as an increasingly important tool, both for investors and for managers. From a thematic perspective, we really believe AI is going to remain a defining theme across private capital, but the opportunity set really extends beyond those mega-cap winners. So I think we expect that significant value creation is also going to come from emerging companies using AI to really transform their industries, improve productivity, and develop new business models. We're really excited about all the innovation that's happening in our industries today, and we think that we can continue to be an important partner to our clients throughout this important inflection point. Laura Kirk [00:21:11]: For us, we really believe Wellington can play a leading role in that evolution, given our expertise across both public and private markets. And our advantage is really the ability to bring together perspectives from across those markets and see a full picture view of a given investment opportunity. We think it makes us better investors and ultimately better partners to our clients. Chris Sparenberg [00:21:30]: Thank you for joining Private Markets 360 featuring Laura Kirk from Wellington Management. If you found this episode insightful, please subscribe to Private Markets 360 For more expert discussions on private investments. Thank you to Laura for her contributions and to our listeners for tuning in. Until next time. ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/private-markets-360/private-markets-360-episode-53-navigating-real-estate-debt-in-evolving-markets</link><description>In this episode of Private Markets 360Â°, we welcome Glenn Grimaldi, CEO of Naftali Credit Partners. Glenn discusses his journey from traditional banking to private credit and shares insights into the evolution of real estate debt markets. He explores Naftali Creditâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99;s rational and disciplined investment approach, its focus on sectors such as multifamily in gateway markets, and how the firm identifies value and manages risk. Glenn also discusses institutional investor engagement and the outlook</description><title>Private Markets 360Â° | Episode 53: Navigating Real Estate Debt in Evolving Markets</title><pubDate>15 October 2026 04:00:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Jocelyn Lewis</name><name>Chris Sparenberg</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Podcast â15 October, 2026 Private Markets 360Â° | Episode 53: Navigating Real Estate Debt in Evolving Markets By Jocelyn Lewis and Chris Sparenberg In this episode of Private Markets 360Â°, we welcome Glenn Grimaldi, CEO of Naftali Credit Partners. Glenn discusses his journey from traditional banking to private credit and shares insights into the evolution of real estate debt markets. He explores Naftali Creditâs rational and disciplined investment approach, its focus on sectors such as multifamily in gateway markets, and how the firm identifies value and manages risk. Glenn also discusses institutional investor engagement and the outlook for private credit as the sector continues to mature. Credits: Host/Author: Chris Sparenberg and Jocelyn Lewis Guests: Glenn Grimaldi Producer: Georgina Lee Published With Assistance From: Feranmi Adeoshun, Kimberly Olvany View Full Transcript Jocelyn Lewis [00:00:00]: Welcome to Private Markets 360, your insider's guide to the world of private investments. Today, we are excited to have Glenn Grimaldi, CEO of Naftali Credit Partners, joining us. Glenn has a wealth of experience, having spent the majority of his career on the banking side, running a national platform for HSBC with a team of 70 and managing $20 billion in debt. His journey from traditional lending to spearheading a private credit firm offers a unique perspective on the evolution of financial markets particularly in real estate debt. Today, Glenn will share his insights on the shift to private credit, Naftali Credit Partners' philosophy of rational and disciplined investing, and how they navigate the complexities of today's real estate market to identify value and manage risk. Glenn, welcome to Private Markets 360. It's a pleasure to have you with us today. How are you? Glenn Grimaldi [00:00:56]: I'm fine, thank you. Thank you so much for having me. It's exciting. Hopefully I can make it exciting to talk about banking. It's not always the most subject, but private credit's more exciting. I do start out by saying I'm a fast, quickly recovering banker. I'm now firmly entrenched in private credit. I've left some of the big bank infrastructure behind, but I haven't leftâ hopefully I haven't left out the training and all the wealth of experience that I had there. Chris Sparenberg [00:01:24]: I don't think we're going to be short of exciting topics to cover here, Glenn. Glenn Grimaldi [00:01:28]: Okay, good. My kind of crowd. Chris Sparenberg [00:01:31]: Let's kick things off talking about your career journey. You started, as you mentioned, on the banking side. You ran a national platform for HSBC. Can you tell us what prompted your shift from traditional lending into leading a private credit firm like Naftali Credit Partners? Glenn Grimaldi [00:01:46]: Sure. It was a very good long run. I was in senior finance in commercial real estate from the very beginning of my career out of graduate school. It was something that I wantedâ I thought I was going to go into on the ownership side, but wandered into the banking world from my finance background and never left. And through a series, even though I was at HSBC for quite a long time and wound up leading a very large portfolio and platform, I really got there through a succession of bank takeovers and mergers and buying portfolios and selling portfolios and even working out portfolios that gave me a wealth of experience. The banking world was, at least when I entered it, fairly entrepreneurial, at least way more entrepreneurial than today. And as it progressed and got regulated through and made its own mistakes, I wouldn't say all the regulations were unfounded. The environment in banking changed quite a bit. Glenn Grimaldi [00:02:48]: Banks had started to be delevering themselves. Capital rules changed and made real estate, real true real estate lending less and less profitable. And the shift in private credit started really in the '08-'09 downturn in the market, the financial crisis. And that has accelerated over the past decade and more and basically created an opportunity for private credit to at least show their chops and how they might do it differently. And the capital rules and reserves and some of the things that the banks and financial institutions are dealing with in terms of regulations don't exist in the same way. I think that was by design. The federal government basically shifted theâ there was still aâ there's still a massive demand for commercial real estate finance. It's just shifted from financial institutions to a lot more sort of a decentralized system of private credit. Glenn Grimaldi [00:04:00]: And the reason I left is for the reasons that I'm outlining. It wasn't as fun. It wasn't as entrepreneurial. The bank was like all other banks were shrinking. And I wanted to use my knowledge to grow a platform. And instead of shrinking a platform, that'sâ that was the catalyst. The second catalyst was my long-term clients, Naftali Group, Mickey Naftali, who's the chairman of the company, were starting a debt fund or had started one. They were on their second debt fund and said, why not? Completely separate of my deciding to leave, within a few weeks of me leaving, they said, why don't you help us with the second debt fund? And it was really like coming home for me. Glenn Grimaldi [00:04:49]: We see the same, we think about risk the same way. We've done billions of dollars of deals together, and there couldn't have been a more exciting match for me to shift my career and help grow a business at a very opportune time. It was an amazing journey to get here. Jocelyn Lewis [00:05:07]: That's really inspiring. And it's also interesting to see how you took that wealth of information that you had gained on the banking side and married that credit expertise with owner development expertise as well. And your shift, it wasn't just about moving from one side of the market to another, but more so bringing together that expertise with that deep understanding of value creation. And that mindset seems to be closely tied to the way that you've built Naftali Credit Partners from the beginning. So Glenn, you've mentioned that Naftali Credit Partners operates with a distinct philosophy. that's centered on rationality and discipline. Would you please elaborate on the philosophy and how that's a differentiator from other players in the market, especially given your insights from the traditional banking side? Glenn Grimaldi [00:06:04]: Yeah, I would say in a nutshell, we wereâ the integration of lending and the developer mindset is that we have developer DNA in a credit fund. We don't think of ourselves as purely lenders. We think of ourselves, and you mentioned value creation, we think, and look, even as a banker, I thought my job was to fundamentally understand risk and value, not to be a pure banker. A little insight, and I'll tell you about the platform itself and its philosophy. Usually in big banks, the real estate guys are separate and apart from the commercial bankers. They think of themselves as bankers inasmuch as they're in a bank, and they can access the bank's capital. But they really think of themselves as real estate people first, as people putting together deals and trying to understand fundamental value rather than just as commercial bankers. They're quite distinct in banks. Glenn Grimaldi [00:07:00]: And that mindset helps. It certainly helped me because I was always sitting in the shoes of the developer thinking, how are they thinking? What do I need to help them with? What do I need to watch out for? And what are they telling me or not telling me that will help me decide whether I'm going to invest in their project? So on the Naftali side, that's the way I typically worked with Mickey when he was my borrower. So I learned a lot from him. Hopefully he learns something from me. And the mindset here is how can we work together to help our client. We're not a fund that preys on clients. We're not about distress. I would say the philosophy here is the same as it was when I was a banker. Glenn Grimaldi [00:07:48]: Find a good project in a good neighborhood with a good borrower and help them access capital where it's more difficult to access than before and help them build their project. So we're trying to invest in helping different tiers of borrowers fulfill their at least financial needs to build their project. And I guess the other thing is, I think where we can help differently than a bank is, well, number one, we canâ for our LP investors who are looking at us and saying, why are you better? First of all, we think we can understand cost and value better than your traditional bank lender who depends on external sources to help them understand value, like hired firms and engineers and consultants. The consultants for me are literally a walk down the hall, either to the chairman or CFO or head of construction or CIO. Those assets that are at my fingertips are something I never had as a banker. I used to meet once a quarter with the OCC discussing my projects back in the day, and they used to often ask me, how come you didn't know about this cost overrun or that issue in that construction loan? And I have to explain to them how the projects work. I said, let me just see if I can give you an example. The banker, the senior banker is often like the parents. Glenn Grimaldi [00:09:14]: They're literally the last to know what's going on. We'll find out sooner or later, but we might not be able to anticipate what's going to happen. And the differentiator here is that's what I have at my fingertips now. We can pass on projects where we think there's going to be issues where the borrower is not willing to confront them and fix them. And in the middle of the project, if something goes wrong or a little bit differently than we expected, we're typically a very good bridge between the senior lender and the capital stack and the borrower to say this is something normal and propose a solution instead of everybody panicking and saying this is a problem. So we're here to solve problems. We're here to understand fundamental value, and we're here to help the borrower finish the project and move on to the next one. That's what we're here to do. Chris Sparenberg [00:10:08]: And it's unique to be at the heart of both private credit and real estate. And as we think about the unique challenges in this current market, especially on the real estate side where older deals were structured without anticipating the return of historical interest rates. Can you tell us how Naftali Credit Partners is approaching this environment and what specific property fundamental issues are you seeing? Glenn Grimaldi [00:10:32]: Yeah, it's funny. A lot of younger people haven't seen interest rates like this. I know we call them high, but they're basically historically normal. I would say for a good amount of my career, interest rates were give or take around where they are now. So it's not so bad. I think the real issue is that the market got hooked on low interest rates for such a long period of time. It saw that as the norm, and it created an operating model around interest rates rather than on value creation and understanding the market. So, look, I'm not an interest rate guru. Glenn Grimaldi [00:11:08]: I've been involved in every market with interest rates up, down, sideways, moving down, moving up. Whenever any borrower asks me about interest rates or the environment, I would say, look, at the end of the day, interest rates go up, interest rates go down. I don't know. We're here to help you build your project. You're in the middle of it now. You have to finish it, right? You can't just wait for things to get better. You have to build where the capital is available to you. Otherwise, it's just going to cost you more to carry it. Glenn Grimaldi [00:11:36]: I guess the other thing is value. And you're not financially engineering your project around rates or leverage, then you've got the right project and we're interested in helping you, even if you have to access a little bit more capital and the rate has to be a little bit higher. In downturns, I used to say to my borrowers, when the interest rates went up, they used to complain and say, oh my gosh, these rates are so high. This is horrible. That's not what they used to be. And I used to say, okay, we're in every decade. I, as the banker, get a couple of years, you get the other 8. They're all good. Glenn Grimaldi [00:12:13]: This cycle is really not high interest rates, it's just moved back to normal. And I think finally the market's understanding that this is the new normal and realizing these are pretty good rates. If they go up again, they might be higher, but they're pretty good. And you can have a whole career with interest rates around, I don't know where they are now, 6 or 7%. You can make a whole career on that. So what we're responding to is where people have bought properly and where people are managing costs and income in a way in which they've created value around their project. That's what we're fundamentally doing. It's not a unique approach. Glenn Grimaldi [00:12:58]: It may be a market for professionals rather than the engineering financing returns. But okay, that's where we come in. We're not here to engineer returns. We're here to ferret out what the borrower's plans are and find out whether true value is being created or preserved and lend on those projects and help them. That's how we're approaching it. That's exactly what the equity side of the company does on its development side. It's successful because it doesn't fall in love with things. It figures out how to buy and sell properly and control costs. Glenn Grimaldi [00:13:41]: It's boring stuff, guys. But that'sâ Chris Sparenberg [00:13:44]: That's brilliant stuff. Glenn Grimaldi [00:13:45]: It'sâ it mayâ I make it sound very easy. Some days it's not very easy, but if you stick to it and you hold to those principles, there will be success. Jocelyn Lewis [00:13:55]: That's the trick, right? It's holding to your principles. It's holding to those pillars that have defined your success throughout periods of volatility in the market, like periods of stress often reveal weaknesses in underwriting as well as risk management. So as you look at the market today, you've seen mistakes in the past, whether it's during your prior time or even mistakes that can pop up because things were just unknown. But I think private credit, you've mentioned that there's patterns too. There's patterns and maybe repeatable mistakes that the banks have made. Chris Sparenberg [00:14:40]: Yep. Jocelyn Lewis [00:14:41]: And what I would like to hear, Glenn, is if you could expand on some of those pitfalls and how Naftali Credit works to avoid them, particularly when you're thinking about financing construction projects. Glenn Grimaldi [00:14:58]: It's a great question. I would say maybe it starts out atâ the fundamental issue always starts out at deploying money. When you start thinking that's all your business is about and you have to put out money no matter what without finding a good dealer, being picky, and there's a velocity to it, then you have an issue. Whether you're a developer or whether you're a lender, that's where you have issues. So I would say first startâ we look at the philosophy is be picky, always believe. And frankly, this has been my philosophy since I entered the business. There's always another deal. They never end. Glenn Grimaldi [00:15:39]: Every day will bring a new thing. And you don't have to do the thing that's in front of you if it doesn't work. You just don't. If you believe that tomorrow there's going to be another one and there'sâ it's infinite, you tend to actually live with the philosophy that you're going to have another deal and you don't have to work on things that don't work, which I've seen many folks do. And I think that's an issue in private credit now. There's so much capital, there's so much pressure to deploy it that at the end of the day, as private credit lenders are subject to the same pressures of moving money around and getting it out and pleasing people and getting deals done. And in construction loans, which is the part of the crux of the question you asked. You often don't find out those mistakes for 3 or 4 years. Glenn Grimaldi [00:16:27]: So that's aâ it's a particular issue with construction lenders that, look, you have a budget, you have some money out. All right, maybe the cost overrun's coming later, or maybe the units will go up in value and save the day, or interest rates will go down. All of these kinds of things that you talk yourself into are part of the mistakes that lenders and even developers can make. So how do we look at construction loans? We look at the budget, we look at the location, we look at the borrower, again, sort of fundamental building blocks. And through the expertise that we have on our marketing and sales side, our construction cost side, our understanding of land value, and also understanding of what buildings are being built and will either rent or sell properly. And their unit layouts. We're looking at whether there's value being created. There's a lot of deals out there that areâ there's a lot of construction loans out there where the developer doesn't look like he's actually creating a lot of value. Glenn Grimaldi [00:17:35]: It even looks like they might be losing some money when the building's done, and that's not a great bet. And in some ways, they're under pressure too. They have to build. We don't have to lend to them, but they have to finish somehow. And hope springs eternal on some jobs. It's hard to structure deals and make them better in the financing side. If the deal is Jell-O, you can't prop it up with steel. It's just going to melt around it. Glenn Grimaldi [00:18:03]: So it has to start with a good foundation. You have to buy the land properly. You have to have the right contractors. You have to have the right architects and look, those are the fundamental things we're looking at. A good borrower with a good location that understands costs and how to build. That's what we're looking for. And it doesn't have to be an institutional national developer. It can be someone local that actually has an understanding of the local market that we're helping. Glenn Grimaldi [00:18:32]: And it could be regional and it could be national, but the fundamentals are the same. Chris Sparenberg [00:18:38]: We're touching a lot on strategy, and I want to expand that into what you were just discussing with opportunities. As you think about current market dynamics, where are you seeing the best risk-adjusted returns in real estate debt? And as a follow-on, are there specific sectors or geographic gateway markets where Naftali Credit Partners focuses? Glenn Grimaldi [00:18:58]: Yeah. In the past, I've lent in probably 45 states. I had offices on the West Coast and the East Coast and the South and Chicago. Right now, the best opportunities we're seeing are actually in our backyard, especially around construction where our expertise is. Fund 2 is a gateway city fund, so we can go anywhere. The same thing will be for Fund 3. But when it comes to heavy construction, ground up or land or things that need zoning expertise or cost expertise in the region, we're probably going to stick to our backyard where we have teams on the ground in New York and South Florida. It could be New Jersey and surrounding areas, but we're going to stick to those markets where we think there's real value opportunity and we have real expertise. Glenn Grimaldi [00:19:50]: We've gone further afield where there isn't construction. There might be lease-up risk or repositioning of an existing asset where we're evaluating market dynamics, rents, and costs, that's a little bit different. So we'll roam further afield for that. We're going to be skewed more towards housing for sure. It's in our DNA. Even the portfolio that I ran for many years is probably 65% to 70% weighted towards multifamily. It's a fairly mundane business, but it's a business of dollars and cents and making sure that you know what your client wants if it's a condo buyer, and knowing what your client wants if they're a renter, and also knowing how to control costs both on the construction side and on the operating side. So the DNA of the company is construction. Glenn Grimaldi [00:20:50]: It's also residential. It's not leaving out other categories for us. We've looked at office opportunities. We've been on some hotel opportunities. But for now, where we're seeing the best risk-adjusted returns have actually been in condo construction, land pre-development, some value-add for lease-up rental deals. We've seen some of those where they make some sense, where they'reâ we think the market's undervaluing rental properties, but those are the main areas. If we find hotel opportunities or medical office or even some office opportunities, we'll bid on them. But for now, per your question, the best returns are actually in our backyard, and there's plenty of opportunities in our backyards. Jocelyn Lewis [00:21:35]: And that highlights the importance of really understanding local markets and the underlying demand within them. And that level of market knowledge seems particularly important given your position in the capital stack. So Glenn, one of the other things that we'd love to talk about is how Naftali Credit Partners consistently operates in a mezzanine position, and we'd love to know how this strategy influences your due diligence process and your assessment of underlying value and your approach to managing risk within your portfolio. Glenn Grimaldi [00:22:13]: Yeah, where we're lending in the mezzanine stack typically was reserved for a good amount of my career to basically senior lending. There wasn't a lot of mezzanine lending. So even as a senior lender, I think some of the skills that I had to figure out early on, if we were lending 75% loan to cost as a bank, and that was all structured as a senior loan, even if we were syndicating the senior loan. You had to have some training and understanding what 75% loan-to-cost could turn into. It could turn into an 85% or 90% loan-to-cost, or 75% loan-to-cost, you could figure out might be a 75% loan-to-value, orâ but there could be a dip in rents or prices of condos, and you had to be able to figure that out. So I'm not in unfamiliar territory as a mezzanine lender. I'm actually in fairly familiar territory. So the real trick is figuring out, and as it was back in the day, figuring out that the banks have delevered. Glenn Grimaldi [00:23:14]: So the banks have realized, look, we don't want to cut it this thin. We actually want to delever ourselves and we want to take a piece where we don't have to think about cost overruns, and we're going to outsource that thinking to private credit. What some of those banks have found out is there's a real differentiator between private credit coming from a firm like us and private credit coming from a firm that just has capital that's willing to look for a certain return, but not have the expertise and underlying value. So we see ourselves as true credit and truly credit enhancing the seniors. And I think that's helpful. Maybe where I come in is I speak senior debt fluently. But I also can bridge the gap between the developer and the senior debt and maybe make that bridge. And that's whereâ that's how we sit in the mezzanine stack. Glenn Grimaldi [00:24:12]: I created the syndication division at HSBC, and we probably over a 15-year period syndicated $50 billion of senior construction and other types of financing with partner banks. So we know how to play with seniors, we know what they're looking for. And also, we know what they're looking for in terms of our expertise backstopping them if there's an issue. So that's how I see my role, that I don't see it as very different. It used to be that mezzanine lenders were, and maybe some of them are now, if they're not doing the right job, they're doing much higher loans in the capital stack and they're going for really truly different risk. I still see my job as taking advantage of how the capital markets have dislocated or been inefficient around financing real estate. And in many ways, I'm looking for senior debt risk, or at least what I think is we used to be senior debt risk where we're not going to lose any money but get an outsized return for it. And what, in many ways, what we're getting paid for is our professional expertise in dealing with the senior in the capital stack and understanding vis-Ã -vis the borrower's project, whether they're really truly going to make their plan and create true value. Glenn Grimaldi [00:25:45]: It's not really a market for amateurs. It's really, even though we've been in this market for a bit, it's actually getting a little bit harder. So I think there's more and more need for us, hence raising Fund 3. I think it's really going to be an opportune time. There hasn't been this long of an inefficiency in the capital markets around financing commercial real estate, at least in my career. Usually the downturns last a couple of years and then everybody, the banks and the insurance companies come roaring back. But I see this sort of fundamental shift that private credit is really taking up all of the slack of the banks and some of the insurance companies. Even the insurance companies are lending or being partners with private real estate. Glenn Grimaldi [00:26:36]: They're investing more and more in private credit and real estate. So I see this as a prolonged shift or maybe a permanent shift in the way the market approaches credit for real estate. And look, we're seeing some of the traditional private credit folks that were in the mezzanine business actually doing a lot as they've raised more and more capital. They're actually delevering themselves. They're moving into the senior debt part of the stack. They're not mezzanine lenders anymore. They have lots of capital they want to deploy and they're deploying, they're delevering if they don't have the expertise and they're actually in some cases looking to partner with us to help them credit enhance their senior. So it's part of a cycle that I've seen before and it's happening with private credit. Glenn Grimaldi [00:27:27]: It's natural. Chris Sparenberg [00:27:28]: Yeah. Change is the only constant in this part of the market. You mentioned being in market with Fund 3. You also gave us some hints there of kind of how the LP landscape is changing with the role that insurance companies play. I think it's fair to say the overall LP landscape is changing quite a bit. There's growing demand for transparency from investors, particularly institutions in the private credit side. Can you tell us how you see institutional investors engaging with credit now and what shifts you might be observing in terms of allocations, capital structures, other preferences they're bringing into these fundraising conversations? Glenn Grimaldi [00:28:09]: I guess we're going to find out over the next year as we start our real fundraising. But yes, those institutions have not stopped being regulated. They're still being scrutinized whether their investment is inâ it's notâ it might be passive or they don't have any discretion, but they still have to report. So the regulations, sooner or later the regulations catch up and those institutional investments can't just be thought of as just some money sitting with a private credit manager. So at the end of the day, The system's going to work to look for transparency. Coming from the environment I came from, transparency aroundâ I was a professional auditee at the bank, having transparency and records and letting everybody know what's going on at the project. It's in the DNA of at least where I came from. And it's also in the DNA of the company on the equity side. Glenn Grimaldi [00:29:04]: We have many partners on the equity side and they have to know about where their money's going and where the project is. That for us, that's easy. I think there might be some growing pains for some of the, some of private credit who are not used to that environment. But our investors are looking for where their money's going. We're going to show them if they want to know about the status. We put out quarterly statements and newsletters about where the projects are and the investor world's a little bit different for me. There's lots of people asking for different things from our partners, ask for many things throughout the course of the year. But it's probably no different from where I came from. Glenn Grimaldi [00:29:46]: There was always somebody asking me for something about the status of the portfolio. To me, it's not a really different environment. It's a natural part of what you should be doing as a responsible investor. Jocelyn Lewis [00:29:56]: Right. And it's clear that institutional participation is really helping to shape the evolution of the asset class. So looking forward, the natural question is then where does the market go from here? And Glenn, looking ahead, what do you anticipate will be the most significant trends or shifts in the private credit market for real estate debt over the next few years? Will the sector continue to mature, and what might that mean for metrics and returns? Glenn Grimaldi [00:30:27]: Yeah, there's already, there's lots of capital pouring into it, and there is caution. There's been early caution this year around non-real estate private credit and redemptions. There's been some headlines about even private credit redemptions. There's a lot of capital that's poured into the sector. There's been some spread pressure this year and some pricing pressure. I think that pricing pressure will continue for a bit, but there will be a reckoning sooner or later. Around pricing and returns. We're not tryingâ that's a sector view. Glenn Grimaldi [00:31:06]: Fortunately, I can think about the sector, but I'm only good for one deal at a time. And we can be sharpshooters because we're not trying to be everything to all people. I came from a fairly large institution, but in terms of competing against other larger institutions, I certainly wasn't the biggest. And my philosophy, a lot like the philosophy of the equity side of the house, the building side of the house, is the same. On any given day, in any given city, on any given project, we can beat somebody if we have the right expertise and if we have the right solution for them. So I think about the sector overall, but I often think more like about what's the day-to-day. I know we're talking about big trends in capital, but there's lots of money. There's also lots of deals. Glenn Grimaldi [00:32:00]: The good thing about the market is there's always a new building. There's not less buildings. There's always more buildings. The debt market here is not self-liquidating. Even on existing buildings, debt comes due every 2, 3, 5 years, even 10 years, and it has to be refinanced or attended to. So it's so dynamic, as Chris said before, the sector things are good, are interesting. Look, they're important in terms of raising capital. But I think our job in terms of going out to the market is to show them why we're different. Glenn Grimaldi [00:32:38]: We're not trying to be everything to all people, and we're not trying to scattergun our approach. We're trying to do what we do on the equity side, find the right return. There's plenty of deals. We've already done a lot of deals. We've gotten the right returns, and that's our focus. But I think the trend is going to be people areâ institutions are going to be pickier. They're going to beâ it's not all just there for the taking. The market is tougher. Glenn Grimaldi [00:33:05]: And I think that plays exactly to our strengths. I think that's actually good for us. They're looking for professionals that have a different story. And there couldn't be a better time for us to tell our story. Chris Sparenberg [00:33:18]: Thank you for joining us for this episode of Private Markets 360, where we had the pleasure of speaking with Glenn Grimaldi, CEO of Naftali Credit Partners. Glenn provided invaluable insights into his journey from traditional banking to private credit, highlighting Naftali Credit's disciplined and rational approach to real estate debt investing. We discussed the impact of historical interest rates on existing deals, the repeatable mistakes private credit can avoid, and Naftali Credit's focus on high-demand sectors like multifamily in gateway markets. Glenn also shed light on the evolving engagement of institutional investors and his outlook for the future of this maturing sector. If you found this episode insightful, please subscribe to Private Markets 360 for more expert discussions on private investments. Thank you to Glenn for his contributions and to our listeners for tuning in. Until next time. ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/101226-shougang-langze-sinopec-units-team-up-on-50000-mty-china-saf-project</link><description>Shougang Langze, a Hong Kong-listed steelmaker, has signed a cooperation framework agreement with two Sinopec-affiliated institutions to convert industrial waste gas into sustainable aviation fuel, a deal that could open a new domestic feedstock pathway for China&amp;apos;s nascent SAF supply chain. The agreement Oct. 12 reported by multiple local media outlets brings together Shougang Langze, Sinopec</description><title>Shougang Langze, Sinopec units team up on 50,000 mt/y China SAF project</title><pubDate>12 October 2026 15:44:38 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Samyak Pandey</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Agriculture, Metals &amp; Mining, Energy Transition, Chemicals, Refined Products, Biofuels, Ferrous, Renewables, Olefins, Jet Fuel, Naphtha October 12, 2026 Shougang Langze, Sinopec units team up on 50,000 mt/y China SAF project By Samyak Pandey Editor: Bill Montgomery Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Steelmaker converts waste gas to SAF fuel Bioethanol plant represents core of collaboration CO2 fermentation cuts feedstock costs sharply Shougang Langze, a Hong Kong-listed steelmaker, has signed a cooperation framework agreement with two Sinopec-affiliated institutions to convert industrial waste gas into sustainable aviation fuel, a deal that could open a new domestic feedstock pathway for China's nascent SAF supply chain. The agreement Oct. 12 reported by multiple local media outlets brings together Shougang Langze, Sinopec Petrochemical Research Institute Co. Ltd. and Sinopec Ningbo Engineering Co. Ltd. in a tripartite arrangement centered on the Ningxia Shizuishan bioethanol-to-SAF project in northwestern China. Shougang Langze is a company in the global carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) industry founded as a strategic joint venture between the Chinese state-owned steel titan Shougang Group and American carbon-recycling innovator. The deal is significant for regional aviation fuel trade flows because it targets an industrial waste gas feedstock route rather than conventional agricultural biomass to produce SAF, potentially reducing feedstock competition and costs at a time when Chinese airlines face growing pressure to source domestically produced low-carbon jet fuel ahead of tightening international carbon regulations. Project details The core of the collaboration is advancing a project with an annual production capacity of 50,000 metric tons of SAF derived from industrial waste gas converted into ethanol, according to the company's voluntary announcement, as cited in multiple local media reports. The three parties will work across two main axes: upstream gas source development using microbial fermentation of industrial waste gas to produce ethanol, and downstream extension into green, high-value-added ethanol products. Beyond the initial SAF project, the partners will jointly develop a new technology combining carbon dioxide electroconversion with bio-fermentation to produce ethanol, a process that could significantly broaden the feedstock base by utilizing CO2 emissions directly. The collaboration will also target expansion into bio-based new materials, including bio-based ethylene derived from green ethanol, building what the company described as a full industrial system of "multiple gas sources â green ethanol â biofuels and bio-based new materials," according to the announcement as reported by the Caizhong News Agency. The division of roles reflects complementary strengths across the three partners. Sinopec's Petrochemical Research Institute, a research body directly under Sinopec, holds proprietary technology reserves in bioethanol-to-SAF synthesis, CO2 inversion-to-syngas production, and ethanol-to-ethylene conversion, according to reports. Sinopec Ningbo Engineering brings engineering, procurement and construction capabilities for industrial-scale project delivery. Shougang Langze contributes existing industrialization capacity in ethanol production from industrial waste gas, according to the reports. The Ningxia Shizuishan location is notable given the region's concentration of heavy industrial activity, which generates substantial volumes of waste gas that could serve as low-cost, large-scale feedstock for the fermentation process, potentially giving the project a structural cost advantage over crop-based SAF routes. Market implications The agreement positions Shougang Langze at the intersection of China's steel-sector decarbonization drive and the country's accelerating push to develop domestic SAF supply, aligning with what GPLP described as "dual-carbon goals and the direction of aviation carbon reduction." China has set ambitious targets to reduce aviation emissions, and international frameworks are increasing the commercial imperative for Chinese carriers to secure verifiable low-carbon fuel supplies. The 50,000 mt/year project, at commercial scale, would represent a meaningful incremental addition to China's domestic SAF production base, which remains limited relative to projected demand from Chinese airlines. The bio-based ethylene downstream extension also signals an intent to capture higher-margin petrochemical derivatives, potentially competing with conventional naphtha-based ethylene in regional markets. Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, assessed Sustainable Aviation Fuel HEFA-SPK FOB China, reflecting ISCC-EU certified cargoes, at $2,295/mt Oct. 12, down $65/mt from Oct. 9. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/092926-india-scores-52-on-saf-readiness-as-demand-financing-lag-feedstock-potential-rsb</link><description>India has sufficient feedstock and technical potential to meet its emerging sustainable aviation fuel targets, but weak demand certainty, limited financing and fragmented supply chains leave the country only moderately prepared for commercial deployment, the Roundtable on Sustainable Biomaterials said Sept. 29 in a new report. India scored 52% in the RSB&amp;apos;s assessment of readiness across nine areas</description><title>India scores 52% on SAF readiness as demand, financing lag feedstock potential: RSB</title><pubDate>29 September 2026 17:01:46 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Samyak Pandey</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Agriculture, Energy Transition, Refined Products, Biofuels, Sugar, Renewables, Vegetable Oils, Jet Fuel September 29, 2026 India scores 52% on SAF readiness as demand, financing lag feedstock potential: RSB By Samyak Pandey Editor: Meghan Gordon Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Feedstock potential scores 78%, tops readiness Market demand lags at 30% in RSB assessment Binding offtake contracts remain absent nationwide India has sufficient feedstock and technical potential to meet its emerging sustainable aviation fuel targets, but weak demand certainty, limited financing and fragmented supply chains leave the country only moderately prepared for commercial deployment, the Roundtable on Sustainable Biomaterials said Sept. 29 in a new report. India scored 52% in the RSB's assessment of readiness across nine areas needed to establish a scalable SAF industry, indicating that the country is progressing beyond early development but remains constrained by gaps in its enabling ecosystem. Feedstock was India's strongest category, scoring 78%, while production capacity and technology readiness each received 60%. Market demand scored only 30%, with investment and financing and enabling infrastructure and services each at 40%. Supply chain and logistics readiness stood at 45%. "The main barriers to scaling SAF thus lie in the enabling ecosystem rather than in physical or technical capability," the RSB said in Assessing India's Readiness for Sustainable Aviation Fuel. India has indicated aspirational international aviation blending targets of 1% in 2027, 2% in 2028 and 5% by 2030, alongside its entry into the mandatory phase of CORSIA from 2027. However, the targets are nonbinding, do not cover domestic aviation and are not supported by a dedicated national SAF roadmap. Feedstock exceeds projected requirement India would require approximately 53 million liters of SAF for a 1% blend in international aviation in 2027, rising to 290 million liters for a 5% international blend by 2030. Including domestic and international operations, demand would reach around 130 million liters/year at 1% and 720 million liters/year, or about 600,000 mt/year, at 5%. The 2030 requirement remains well below the 14 million-33 million mt/year of theoretical SAF production potential identified by RSB. Residue scores above crops Processing residues, particularly sugarcane bagasse, achieved the strongest feedstock score at 4.44 out of 5, followed by agricultural and forestry residues at 4.25. Municipal solid waste and waste oils and fats each scored 4.06, while sugar and cereal crops received 2.75 because of food-security, water-use and land-use concerns. India generates more than 120 million mt/year of bagasse, but only around 30 million mt/year may be available for additional biofuel uses after accounting for its established role in powering sugar mills. The country also produces more than 500 million mt/year of crop residues, with a surplus of up to 178 million mt/year. However, fragmented and seasonal collection systems limit their practical availability. Around 90 million mt/year of crop residues, mainly rice straw, are burned in the open, creating scope for SAF supply chains to support rural income and pollution reduction with another 104 million mt/year of forestry residues potentially available. Used cooking oil is similarly constrained. India generates an estimated 2 million-5 million mt/year, but only around 50,000 mt is collected formally, while an estimated 60% is improperly reused in the food chain. Demand remains nonbankable Indian SAF demand is currently driven largely by test flights, memoranda of understanding and anticipated compliance rather than binding purchases. The report identified no binding, long-term offtake contracts. Airlines remain reluctant to commit while SAF costs are typically 2.5-3 times conventional jet fuel and no cost-sharing mechanism exists. RSB recommended converting India's indicative targets into enforceable blending obligations and eventually extending them to domestic aviation. It also called for a national SAF roadmap and incentives linked to lifecycle carbon intensity. To move projects from pilots to commercial plants, India should consider SAF-specific viability-gap funding, tax credits or contracts for difference, alongside public-private partnerships and blended finance, the report said. The report also recommended a national feedstock atlas, district-level resource mapping, regional aggregation hubs and digital traceability. Additional investment will be needed in airport storage, blending, testing and certification infrastructure. HEFA is expected to anchor near-term production, while AtJ is positioned as India's principal scale-up pathway because of its compatibility with the domestic ethanol industry as FT remains a medium-term option and power-to-liquids a longer-term prospect. Platts,part of S&amp;P Global Energy, assessed Sustainable Aviation Fuel HEFA-SPK FOB Straits, reflecting CORSIA-certified cargoes, at $2,420/metric ton on Sept. 29, down $20/mt from Sept. 28, US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/092326-china-launches-100000-mtyear-negative-carbon-saf-project-in-xinjiang</link><description>China&amp;apos;s Dongde Energy launched a 100,000 metric ton/year negative-carbon sustainable aviation fuel project, which uses captured industrial carbon dioxide as the primary feedstock, according to multiple local media reports on Sept. 23. The project, backed by a total investment of 11 billion yuan, marks the transition of China&amp;apos;s negative-carbon aviation fuel demonstration project from planning to</description><title>China launches 100,000 mt/year negative-carbon SAF project in Xinjiang</title><pubDate>23 September 2026 16:03:06 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Samyak Pandey</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Agriculture, Energy Transition, Electric Power, Refined Products, Biofuels, Carbon, Hydrogen, Renewables, Vegetable Oils September 23, 2026 China launches 100,000 mt/year negative-carbon SAF project in Xinjiang By Samyak Pandey Editor: Juan Tolentino Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Dongde Energy builds CO2-to-fuel facility Project uses green hydrogen, captured carbon 11 billion yuan investment targets 2060 goals China's Dongde Energy launched a 100,000 metric ton/year negative-carbon sustainable aviation fuel project, which uses captured industrial carbon dioxide as the primary feedstock, according to multiple local media reports on Sept. 23. The project, backed by a total investment of 11 billion yuan, marks the transition of China's negative-carbon aviation fuel demonstration project from planning to active implementation, according to the reports. With an annual output targeted at 100,000 mt, the facility could meaningfully contribute to China's SAF blending obligations as the country advances its dual-carbon climate targets, peak emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. Technology validation Unlike conventional SAF pathways that use biogenic feedstocks such as used cooking oil or agricultural waste, the Dongde Energy project employs a CO2 hydrogenation route, coupling green hydrogen produced from renewable electricity with captured industrial carbon dioxide to synthesize aviation fuel. The process is designed to generate net negative carbon emissions by consuming CO2 that would otherwise be released into the atmosphere from Yiwu County's established coal chemical industry base. The full project scope includes 2 gigawatts of dedicated wind power capacity, a green hydrogen production line with an annual capacity of 50,000 mt, and carbon capture and utilization infrastructure capable of processing 400,000 mt of CO2 per year, according to reports. Feasibility studies and procurement processes for the new energy power, carbon capture, and chemical synthesis systems are currently underway, the reports said. Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, assessed Sustainable Aviation Fuel HEFA-SPK FOB China, reflecting ISCC-EU certified cargoes, at $2,410/mt on Sept. 23, down $15/mt from Sept. 22. The SAF FOB China premium was at $1,053.50/mt over Platts Jet Kero FOB Singapore forward curve (MOPS), down $62.75/mt from Sept. 22. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/emerging-markets-monthly-highlights-high-energy-costs-and-tighter-policy-pose-risks-s101712414</link><description>Expectations of further tightening by the Federal Reserve have tested the resilience of capital flows to emerging markets in September. Flows into emerging market debt turned negative in September for the first time since March, when the outbreak of the Iran war triggered capital outflows. If the recent strengthening of the U.S. dollar persists, it could continue to weigh on emerging market capital flows in the coming months.</description><title>Emerging Markets Monthly Highlights: High Energy Costs And Tighter Policy Pose Risks</title><pubDate>14 October 2026 14:13:44 GMT</pubDate></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/podcasts/look-forward/partner-perspectives-decoding-concentration-risk-index-design-and-the-next-era-of-choice</link><description>In this episode of Partner Perspectives, a special miniseries within the Look Forward podcast, the conversation explores one of the most foundational yet rapidly evolving forces in modern investing: indexing. Drawing on S&amp;amp;P Global and Vanguardâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99;s joint research, Partner Perspectives: Unlocking Potential Ahead, this episode examines how market concentration, changing corporate leadership, and expanding index tools are reshaping the way investors access markets and build portfolios.</description><title>Look Forward | Episode 32: Partner Perspectives: Decoding Concentration Risk, Index Design, and the Next Era of Choice</title><pubDate>17 June 2026 15:00:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Aries Poon</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Look Forward 17 June 2026 Look Forward | Episode 32: Partner Perspectives: Decoding Concentration Risk, Index Design, and the Next Era of Choice By Aries Poon In this episode of Partner Perspectives, a special miniseries within the Look Forward podcast, the conversation explores one of the most foundational yet rapidly evolving forces in modern investing: indexing. Drawing on S&amp;P Global and Vanguardâs joint research, Partner Perspectives: Unlocking Potential Ahead, this episode examines how market concentration, changing corporate leadership, and expanding index tools are reshaping the way investors access markets and build portfolios. Tim Edwards of S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices opens with a historical perspective on U.S. equity concentrationânoting that by mid-2025 the 10 largest companies in the S&amp;P 500 accounted for nearly 40% of the indexâs market capitalization, a level not seen since the mid-1960s. He explains how enthusiasm around AI, technology, and productivity has fueled todayâs market leaders, while also showing that concentration is not static: Over time, equity markets undergo a constant âchanging of the guard,â as old leaders fade and new giants rise. His core message is that broad, capitalization-weighted benchmarks remain powerful because they adapt alongside the market rather than trying to predict its future winners. The episode then shifts to Jim Rowley of Vanguard, who traces how indexing has evolved over the last 50 yearsâfrom the first simple S&amp;P 500 index mutual fund to todayâs far more targeted landscape of sector, size, style, and total-market strategies. Rowley explains how investors increasingly use âpassive for activeâ approaches to build portfolios with precision, while emphasizing that investors should look beyond labels and understand the underlying methodology of any index they own. He also points to direct indexing as the next frontier, offering greater customization for tax-loss harvesting, ESG preferences, and factor tilts. Chapters 00:00 Introduction to Partner Perspectives and the evolution of indexing 02:00 Tim Edwards on concentration in the S&amp;P 500 and why this moment matters 04:30 The role of AI, technology, and market optimism in todayâs top companies 06:10 Looking back to 1965: what happened to the prior top 10 giants 08:00 How a small number of stocks drive a large share of long-term market growth 09:55 The âchanging of the guardâ and how concentration evolves over time 11:20 Does underperformance by todayâs giants threaten the broader market? 13:10 Why broad cap-weighted benchmarks like the S&amp;P 500 remain resilient 15:20 Jim Rowley on the launch of the first index mutual fund and why it was revolutionary 17:10 How index investing expanded from simple market access to targeted exposures 18:20 Using âpassive for activeâ in portfolio construction 20:00 Why index methodology matters more than the label on the fund 21:55 A small-cap example: how similar index labels can produce very different outcomes 22:50 The future of indexing: direct indexing and portfolio customization 24:20 Why traditional index funds remain central in a more differentiated market 25:00 Key portfolio takeaways for investors and advisors This podcast was authored by a cross-section of representatives from S&amp;P Global and in certain circumstances external guest authors. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of any entities they represent and are not necessarily reflected in the products and services those entities offer. This research is a publication of S&amp;P Global and does not comment on current or future credit ratings or credit rating methodologies. Look Forward A changing world requires new insights, new analysis, and new approaches. Our clients require expertise and analysis that looks at the big picture. Explore More View Full Transcript Aries Poon: [00:00:00] Welcome to Partner Perspectives, a thought leadership initiative from S&amp;P Global that brings leading institutions together to examine the trends that shape global markets, and we deliver forward-looking analysis that helps market participants navigate uncertainty, identify opportunities, and anticipate what's next. This miniseries within the Look Forward podcast spotlights our first volume, produced jointly with Vanguard, entitled Partner Perspectives: The Future of Capital Markets, Unlocking Potential Ahead. Across three episodes, we explore the key themes at the heart of this research, including shifts in global market structure, index diversification, fixed income resilience, and the evolution of private markets. Leaders from S&amp;P Global and Vanguard [00:01:00] discuss what these changes could mean for investors, institutions, and the broader market ecosystem. Because progress is rarely the work of one institution or one perspective, this research is built on the idea that adaptation and cooperation across sectors and borders are essential to unlocking opportunity ahead. In this episode, we are narrowing in on one of the most foundational yet rapidly evolving themes explored in this joint research, and that is indexing. It is a part of the market that can appear simple at first glance, but beneath the surface sits decades of innovation, shifting market leadership, and increasingly complex investor needs. Indexing has become one of the primary ways institutions and individuals access the market, and understanding how it is changing helps us understand [00:02:00] how the entire investment landscape is changing. To unpack this story, I'll be joined by two indexing experts. First, Tim Edwards, Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices. His research explores what happens when a handful of companies become disproportionately large and what history teaches us about market concentration and change at the top. Then we'll turn to Jim Rowley, Global Head of Investment Implementation Research at Vanguard, to explore how indexing has evolved over the last fifty years, what's driving its next chapter, and how investors can navigate a market full of increasingly differentiated index strategies. Let's start by setting the stage with Tim. Tim, welcome to the show. Tim Edwards: Hi. Thanks for having me. Aries Poon: Let's start with the headline finding. In your paper, you note that by mid [00:03:00] 2025, the ten largest companies in the S&amp;P five hundred made up almost forty percent of the index's total market cap, a level of concentration that we have not seen since the mid 1960s. What made you want to dig into this moment? Tim Edwards: Well, there were two reas-reasons to, to dig into it. The first, um, was the outperformance or the, the, the relative increase in heft, uh, among the largest companies in the US has been a really driving phenomena in equity markets globally and US equity markets especially over the last decade. Uh, it's had all sorts of consequences, um, but it's also raised questions, questions as to whether or not such a level of concentration represents potentially a systemic risk or even a reason, uh, to, uh, uh, move beyond capitalization-weighted benchmarks, uh, that measure the markets by literally, um, [00:04:00] grouping companies and measuring companies according to their, to their size. So first reason to look at it was because it's something that really matters to the-- to markets right now. The second reason is because we do have the advantage of, um, many decades of history in the S&amp;P 500 live performance, we had the ability to go, if you like, back in time and answer the question, what happened last time? Now, of course, the past, uh, as it always says in the, in the disclaimer, the past does not guarantee the future. Uh, but looking at evolutions and ebbs and flows in concentration in US equity markets and what happened the last time we saw a similar, similar level of concentration was something that really motivated digging into the research that we did. Aries Poon: So when you spoke about rising concentration, you also linked that to huge investor enthusiasm for AI and other disruptive technologies. So how important is that technology story to understanding today's [00:05:00] giants? Tim Edwards: It's, it's not everything, but it is pretty important. Um, so the, the, the, the top 10, um, uh, which, which, you know, we examined as of today, uh, include companies which are real, um- Uh, poster child for, for, for the tech sector, for the communications sector, uh, and for the increasing enthusiasm and optimism around either AI directly or the pr-productivity benefits that AI may bring, uh, to the broader economy. Um, and, and just if I list the names, you, you'll get a sense. So, you know, we have NVIDIA, uh, we have Apple, we have Broadcom, we have Meta, we have Alphabet, uh, we have Microsoft. Um, but it's not just those companies. Also represented, uh, are, uh, you know, the finance industry, JPMorgan, uh, and Berkshire Hathaway, uh, and, uh, another, another favorite of, um, of the traders, Tesla, uh, which of course has connections to but is, but is not directly an AI company. I think that, that is, um, in [00:06:00] itself just, you know, those list of names, you can see the importance that the market that investors have placed on those businesses, um, in terms of, of the drivers or potential drivers of, of profits and growth, uh, in the US, um, economy generally. Aries Poon: And then, uh, actually there is another interesting element, uh, of, of the research is looking back at the top 10 S&amp;P 500 companies back in June 1965. So can you walk us through what happened to that group over the few decades since then? Tim Edwards: Yeah, absolutely. So this was, this was the opportunity that we had, right? So, um, you have those, those 10 companies that I mentioned representing about forty percent, almost forty percent, uh, of the S&amp;P 500. Um, so and we've looked back in time, and we found that in 1965, there was, you know, a very different ten companies that represented the same proportion of the index, just a little under, uh, uh, forty, forty percent. And they're very different, and they [00:07:00] contain some names that will probably be familiar, uh, to the listeners, but, um, but sometimes for rather notorious reasons, uh, than, than success. So we have companies that went famously bankrupt, Kodak, um, Sears catalog company or Sears Roebuck, uh, &amp; Co., uh, General Electric. Um, you have a, a company which is in the tech sector but somehow didn't manage to capture as much of the latest wave, uh, in, uh, in IBM. And some of, you know, parts of what people see a little bit as, uh, part of the old economy, you know, energy majors like, um, like Standard Oil, which became, uh, Exxon, and, uh, Gulf Oil, which then later became Chevron. Uh, and so what we wanted to do was, was to illustrate how that changing of the guard, if you like, over the last sixty years, from 1965 to 2025, how that happened and what impact that had on overall market performance, and what that can tell us about the way that markets and benchmarks evolve. Aries Poon: And you also estimate that [00:08:00] about ten stocks w-were responsible for roughly one-third of the S&amp;P 500 total growth after that initial 1965 snapshot. What does that concentration of contribution tell us about how equity markets work? Tim Edwards: It tells us something really important. Um, it, it shows us, uh, something that intuitively we all know. By the way, where does that thirty percent come from, right? So you have these, these ten companies which are the current leaders today. Well, they weren't always as big as they were, but they were, in many cases, long time members of the index. Um, in the, uh, in the research, we point out the average tenure, uh, among these companies is around a quarter of a century. You know, Microsoft joined many decades ago, and it joined at a small weight. And if these companies have come from whatever weight they came in, which typically are, you know, around point two, point four percent of the index, and they're today representing four, five, six, seven percent, that [00:09:00] means that if you look at the total growth in wealth, the capitalization of the US equity markets, if they're a third of it, then they have generated more or less, approximately. They've generated a third of the overall increase in capitalization over the time, at least. Um, and this is, this is a dynamic that is fundamental to, to the stock markets, right? There, there are over ten thousand companies which have ever been available to trade on the New Stock Exchange, um, and just few of them survive, and a very small few of them, uh, come to represent a significant proportion of the overall market. They've done it before. Uh, they will very well likely do it again, and it shows you that the returns in the stock market, yes, um, you know, th-they-- many stocks can do well, but the overall market is often pulled higher or drifts higher, thanks to the contributions of a few select superheroes, um, who really outperform all their peers. Aries Poon: Let's fast-forward to today's cohort. [00:10:00] Yeah. You tracked the current top ten companies as of June 2025, tracing back through the corporate predecessors where necessary. What did you learn about how these firms rose to the top? Tim Edwards: Yeah, it's really interesting. I me- I mentioned the phrase changing of the guard, and I think that's, that's really an important concept. Um, so you have-- You go back nineteen sixty-five to today, you have a concentration of, um, you know, top ten taking up forty percent at the start and at the end of the period, and in between there are ebbs and flows. And concentration can change, if you like, in, in two ways, right? Concentration can change because the biggest companies underperform, and so they come to represent smaller weights. Or, um, you know, equivalently, but from a slightly different perspective, it could be that other companies are coming to take their place. Other members of the index are, you know, gaining momentum, picking up steam, and coming to represent a larger and larger share. And over the full history, uh, of, uh, of the US equity markets, it's [00:11:00] really this changing of the guard that drives ebbs and flows in concentration. The current t-top ten cohort, uh, I don't wanna say they came from nowhere, it took them a long time to get there, um, but they essentially grew from very small weights to large weights just as the old cohort were falling from large weights to, to small. So it's this, it's this dynamic of reinvention, uh, which characterizes equity markets and w- and which is really visible, uh, on those, on those, uh, in the comparison between, you know, where we were sixty years ago and, and where we are today. Aries Poon: Actually, many listeners will still worry, you know, if the current giants stumble. Does that put the whole market at risk? Tim Edwards: Um, well, uh, so here's what's, here's what's interesting. Not necessarily. Uh, partly because of the dynamics I've just mentioned. Um, partly because really it's, it's about relative, uh, performance, not absolute. And one of the things that you can do is, is you can, you know, measure concentration, [00:12:00] like what was the weight of the top ten at the time or another... any other measure of concentration. You can look at that, how it evolves over years, decade, months, years. And what you find is that statistically there is an association between the underperformance of the larger stocks and the performance of the, of the overall market. But it's a very weak relationship. Um, in fact, you know, something you can, you can sort of get straight away is, is from nineteen sixty-five through to twenty thirteen, concentration declined enormously. Uh, and they were a fantastic, fantastic fifty years or so for, for, for the US stock market. So it's-- You don't necessarily need to believe that the current giants need to continue to outperform in order for the broad US equity market to do well. However, if they do falter, a diversified broad approach can help you do something really important, which is to ensure participation in the next generation of, if you like, you know, [00:13:00] minnows that are, that are hoping to become big fish. And that's, that's actually why we called the, the, the paper In the Shadows of Giants, to give the, the sense that potentially or perhaps already out there and growing today, um, there are members of, of the next top ten cohort whenever... whoever or wherever they may be and come. Aries Poon: So let's bring all these down to the investor level. A, uh, common reaction to high concentration is to say, "Well, I should move away from market cap weighted index funds." But in your conclusion, you were actually fairly positive about sticking with broad cap weight benchmarks like the S&amp;P five hundred. Why is that? Tim Edwards: Um, partly because their, their, their long-term history shows that by allowing companies to fail, um, they allow others to rise. Um, you know, the important thing about capitalization weighting is it's not making a judgment, it's just representing the whole market. If big companies start to do worse, then the [00:14:00] weights in capitalization weighted benchmarks will decrease accordingly. Uh, and by the time if, if this does happen, by the time you have a really big company that gets very small, its weight has now got very small. And conversely, if you have, you know, new innovative companies that are coming to... that are outperforming, that are coming to represent a more significant part of the economy, capitalization weighted benchmarks don't make their own judgment. They follow the market's judgment, and the size of the position will grow, not because index funds are buying more of them, but simply because their performance is Giving them a higher weight, right? So it's just tracking the market that rather than, rather than trying to beat it. So I think it's, it's, it's those two pieces, you know. Looking at long-term history shows how broad capitalization weighted benchmarks can evolve and do evolve with markets, and also just remembering that key concept that by taking broad cap-weighted exposure, you're not making a judgment on which company is [00:15:00] more or expensive or too cheap, you're just participating in the overall growth or falls, uh, in the total market. Aries Poon: That was a fascinating look at how markets behave when giants dominate the landscape and how much investors can learn from looking back at both history and today's concentration. Now we're going to take that foundation and widen the lens. If Tim helped us understand how the market itself evolves, our next guest helps us understand how investors choose to navigate that evolution. Joining me now is Jim Rowley, Global Head of Investment Implementation Research at Vanguard, to walk us through how index investing has transformed over the last fifty years and what that means for investors today. Jim, welcome to the show. Jim Rowley: Thank you very much, Aries, for having me. I appreciate it. I'm looking forward to the conversation. Aries Poon: Awesome. So let's start with the big picture. Fifty years ago, Vanguard launched [00:16:00] the first index mutual fund, giving investors simple access to the S&amp;P five hundred. A single fund, one benchmark, and broad market exposure. How would you describe the original value proposition of that first fund, and what made it so revolutionary? Jim Rowley: I think ironically, and, and this might be circular logic, but the very notion of the index fund itself was revolutionary. And you, you just described it, this idea of a, a, a single benchmark, broad market access. You know, back in the-- at that time, investing was largely an endeavor of active management, which means that investors had to bear the risk of a-attempting to outperform the market. But, you know, we've seen the results in the data, and in many cases, underperforming the market, and they were probably carrying reasonably high cost structures to do so. And, and this idea that investors would s- would invest in a fund that would just give them the market's return, providing [00:17:00] them simple one-fund implementation at a very cost-effective way of doing it, that in and of, in and of itself was a revolutionary idea. Aries Poon: And fast-forward to today. What has changed since then? Jim Rowley: Well, I think markets have matured a bit. I think, uh, investor preferences have shifted and, and I think if we, we look at that S&amp;P 500 index fund as, as a cornerstone, we've now seen this rapid development of different types of index fund strategies. We've seen strategies that focus on, uh, you know, specific sector exposures. We see index funds that focus or give access to different size and, you know, market cap size and styles, uh, regions, country-specific, uh, those types of exposures. But ironically, we've also seen the development of, of total market exposures. The idea that for some investors, you know, they would like really a one fund of the total market. And, and what I mean by that is, [00:18:00] whereas the S&amp;P 500 provides great representation to a broad swath of the U.S. equities market, um, it's not, it's not the total market itself. And now with this development of targeted funds and total market funds, investors have a great set of tools that give them flexibility and, and additional means to add customization to their portfolios. Aries Poon: So as index strategies evolved to offer a wider range of exposures over time, Jim, how do you think this expansion changed how investors use index funds in portfolios? Jim Rowley: Well, the phrase that we like to use is it's investors are able to use passive for active. And a, a great way that I think we can illustrate this is, you know, many investors are, are familiar with the concept of core satellite. It was a way of saying, "I'd like to engage in some type of active-passive combination with my funds, and maybe I will do that by holding a core, uh, an S&amp;P [00:19:00] 500 index fund, and then I'll use active satellites to get further exposure and, and attempt to beat the market." And that might mean in a-- if I use a simple example, that might mean adding an active mid-cap fund and an active small-cap fund. Well, now what we've seen with this development of index funds is using passive for active means instead of the old core satellite thought, it's now I will have the S&amp;P 500 index fund, but now I'll also own the S&amp;P mid-cap index fund and an S&amp;P small-cap index fund. And the trade-off for investors is, you know, with the, with the prior portfolio, you had a chance of sort of adding manager selection outperformance in mid and small-cap markets, but you ran the risk of maybe gaps and overlaps because you might not have full transparency to what each of those active managers was doing. But now with this idea of just holding three index funds, you know, the investor who's building that portfolio has a little bit [00:20:00] more precise control of setting the allocations to large, mid, and small, and eliminating the additional layer or that uncertainty that comes with using active managers. Aries Poon: So one of the key takeaways also from your team's research is that index labels can be misleading. So can you help us unpack why understanding an index methodology actually matters? Jim Rowley: An index's job is to, uh, reflect an, uh, an investable opportunity set. Um, but when an index provider has to make that a reality, they actually have to build it and, and construct it. And normally that begins with what are the securities to be included in that index and in what weights, you know, proportions, et cetera. Now, typically, if an index provider starts with a market such as the, the U.S. equity market, there's probably not going to be too much differentiation, uh, when you're thinking about just the total U.S. equity market. But once index providers start to [00:21:00] carve up the market into smaller segments, they have to make decisions such as where's my cutoff to determine size? Like what's large, what's mid, what's small? They have to determine style, like what's a growth or what's a value stock? And they also have to determine their rebalancing frequencies. And they don't all agree on those methods, and what you end up with is situations with index providers where their versions of large, mid, and small, you know, they might have a different number of securities. They might have relative drift in terms of maybe one person's mid-cap index is a little bit larger than the other person's mid-cap index. And that's why understanding the methodology and how those constituents and portfolios are arrived at is far more important than simply what's the label. Aries Poon: Can you give us one concrete example of how index methodology can alter outcomes even when the index name sometimes sounds alike?[00:22:00] Jim Rowley: Yeah. You know, I was, I was thinking about this the other day and, and, uh, if somebody had said to you, Aries, "Hey, how did small caps do? How did U.S. small caps do in 2024?" And I'll, I'll use 2024 because the, the research referenced, uh, we, we take a look at the end of 2024. I would say, well, it depends upon whose definition you are looking at. And I, I won't name the names, but if we look at the three major index providers and their, their respective small cap indexes for 2024, you, you could have gotten a return of something around 8%, another one around 11%, and another one around 14%. And that's a very simple label, oh, how did small caps do? But each one of those returns is a function of their respective methodologies. Aries Poon: So let's look ahead, Jim. Vanguard's research points to greater differentiation as the next phase. So what kinds of innovations are we talking about? Jim Rowley: I think we'll probably see [00:23:00] the sort of development of very targeted and specific strategies in index fund development. But I think maybe the one form of differentiation that most are looking towards i-in the future revolves around direct indexing. And I think that is a very important focus because it, it brings the, the hope, uh, of customization. And I, I can think of three ways that customization would be utilized by investors. One of which is tax loss harvesting. The second one might be for what we would call ESG preferences. And I know the, the popularity of ESG investing, you know, is a little bit higher, it's a little bit lower. But with direct indexing, customization is done at the individual investor level, and you really don't need to have a debate. If, if you and I just have different personal preferences around sectors we want or sectors we don't want, that's great. The customization of direct indexing lets each of us make those choices, and they don't, they don't really affect one another.[00:24:00] And the third area of customization is maybe a little more specific active decisions. You know, maybe there are investors who like the customization to say, "Oh, I, I prefer to put on some type of factor tilt," or maybe, "I think I have the ability to add some edge on security selection based upon my own homework." And I think looking ahead, what direct indexing really offers, it's, it's not just the differentiation, but it's, it's the differentiation that comes through customization. Aries Poon: And where does this evolution leave the traditional index funds? Are they still relevant in this new, uh, landscape? Jim Rowley: I still th- To me, they're still front and center. Uh, I-- What I've talked about before is investors, especially when you are looking at major index providers and they offer a, a holistic family tree, if you will, of their indexes where you, you start with the total market funds. B- And their lineups usually then give you the ability to sort of break down the total market and rebuild it [00:25:00] in a way that best meets your needs. I think they're front and center and incredibly key tools going forward. Aries Poon: And here is my last question for you. So for listeners managing their own portfolios or advising clients, what are the key takeaways, uh, from this evolution? Jim Rowley: Well, I think for me there's really two keys, one of which we talked about before is, you know, don't pay attention to the labels. It's really important to understand index provider methodology and what does that mean for your fund's characteristics. So putting labels aside, focus on the characteristics. I think the second part is realizing index funds are not a panacea. They are tools, and they are very important tools that should be used in the context of a portfolio. We should be looking at index funds as great tools to help investors build diversified, low-cost portfolios that align with their objectives and their risk tolerances, all in an [00:26:00] effort to help them achieve investment success. Aries Poon: Thanks, Jim, and that brings us to the end of today's episode. From Tim's look at market concentration and the long arc of performance leadership to Jim's deep dive into how indexing has broadened and evolved, one theme came through clearly. Markets change, leadership changes, and the way investors navigate those changes continues to evolve as well. That is what making this partnership between S&amp;P Global and Vanguard so important, bringing together complementary expertise to offer clarity in a complex world with insights designed not only to inform but to help market participants channel knowledge into action. To learn more, read the full collection of research on spglobal.com. Thank you for listening ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/podcasts/look-forward/partner-perspectives-inside-the-forces-driving-resilience-and-expansion-in-private-markets</link><description>In this premiere episode of Partner Perspectives, a special miniseries within the Look Forward podcast, host Molly Mintz examines how private markets are reshaping capital formation, portfolio construction, and long-term investment strategy. Drawing on S&amp;amp;P Global and Vanguardâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99;s joint research, Partner Perspectives: Unlocking Potential Ahead, this conversation explores why companies are staying private longer, how private equity has expanded in scale and influence, and what todayâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99;s higher-rat</description><title>Look Forward | Episode 31: Partner Perspectives: Inside the Forces Driving Resilience and Expansion in Private Markets</title><pubDate>16 June 2026 15:00:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Molly Mintz</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Look Forward 16 June 2026 Look Forward | Episode 31: Partner Perspectives: Inside the Forces Driving Resilience and Expansion in Private Markets By Molly Mintz In this premiere episode of Partner Perspectives, a special miniseries within the Look Forward podcast, host Molly Mintz examines how private markets are reshaping capital formation, portfolio construction, and long-term investment strategy. Drawing on S&amp;P Global and Vanguardâs joint research, Partner Perspectives: Unlocking Potential Ahead, this conversation explores why companies are staying private longer, how private equity has expanded in scale and influence, and what todayâs higher-rate environment means for returns and risk. Vanguardâs Bill Stout outlines an optimistic but measured view on private equityâemphasizing that disciplined underwriting, operational execution, diversification, and manager selection matter more than ever as the era of easy exits fades. S&amp;P Globalâs Evan Gunter and Ilja Hauerhof discuss private creditâs rapid expansion, the rising trend of manager concentration, and how asset-based finance has emerged as a major growth engine. In addition, they highlight risks that are shaping this market evolutionâincluding liquidity constraints and structural complexityâand explain why greater transparency, standardized reporting, and data-driven insights will be essential to unlocking the next phase of private market growth. Chapters 00:00 Introduction to Partner Perspectives and the future of private markets 02:55 Bill Stout on how capital formation has shifted from public to private markets 05:15 The biggest risks facing private equity in a higher-rate, slower-exit environment 07:25 Public vs. private equity performance, illiquidity premiums, and return dispersion 08:50 Why Vanguardâs outlook for private equity is optimistic but measured 10:55 The case for manager selection and diversification across strategies, vintages, and regions 13:25 Whatâs next: secondaries, democratized access, and fee compression 16:15 Transition to private credit with Evan Gunter and Ilja Hauerhof 17:45 How private credit evolved after the GFC and why private companies are getting bigger 20:35 Concentration risk and the growing dominance of the top five credit managers 22:45 Asset-based finance, fund finance, and infrastructure as the next frontier 27:35 Key risks in private credit: liquidity, transparency, and complexity 32:35 Why standardized data and clearer reporting are critical for future growth 35:15 Final takeaways and where to find more research from S&amp;P Global and Vanguard This podcast was authored by a cross-section of representatives from S&amp;P Global and in certain circumstances external guest authors. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of any entities they represent and are not necessarily reflected in the products and services those entities offer. This research is a publication of S&amp;P Global and does not comment on current or future credit ratings or credit rating methodologies. Look Forward A changing world requires new insights, new analysis, and new approaches. Our clients require expertise and analysis that looks at the big picture. Explore More View Full Transcript Molly Mintz: [00:00:00] Welcome to Partner Perspectives, a thought leadership initiative from S&amp;P Global that brings leading institutions together to examine the trends shaping global markets and deliver forward-looking analysis that helps market participants navigate uncertainty, identify opportunities, and anticipate what's ahead. This miniseries within the Look Forward podcast spotlights our first volume, produced jointly with Vanguard, entitled Partner Perspectives: The Future of Capital Markets, Unlocking Potential Ahead. Across three episodes, we explore the key themes at the heart of this research, including shifts in global market structure, index diversification, fixed income resilience, and the evolution of private markets. Leaders from S&amp;P Global and Vanguard [00:01:00] alike discuss what these changes could mean for investors, institutions, and the broader market ecosystem. In our first episode, we're exploring the formidable forces that are driving both resilience and expansion across the full spectrum of private markets. Private equity and private credit have transformed global financial markets, attracting a broadening investor base that spans global pension funds and sovereign institutions to insurance companies, wealth managers, retail savers, and beyond, and reshaping such investors' portfolio construction and diversification. Against a backdrop of elevated borrowing costs and constrained exit opportunities, the key to unlocking the next stage of growth lies in advancing transparency and data-driven insights. I'm joined by Bill Stout, head of Private Market Strategy at Vanguard, to discuss the optimistic but measured [00:02:00] outlook for private equity. Although private equity investments face several near-term challenges, Vanguard's research shows that successful stakes entailing discipline, diversification, and flexibility with liquidity and rigorous manager selection may deliver outperformance over public equities in the coming decade. Then we'll hear S&amp;P Global's 360-degree perspective on the state of play for private credit. Considering that while private equity laid the foundation for investors stepping into private assets, private credit has seen the biggest increase in allocations and investment flows since the beginning of 2020. S&amp;P Global Ratings' Evan Gunter and S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence's Ilya Hauerhof research explores how innovation is a hallmark of private credit's evolution. Let's get started. We're here to talk about Vanguard's market outlook for private equity, but [00:03:00] before we look forward, it's essential to understand how we've gotten here. What have been the biggest shifts in capital formation and market dynamics over the last decade? Bill Stout: Yeah, look, this is a, a, a, a very popular topic as, you know, the private equity markets have, have grown so tremendously over the last decade, and, and if you look back even further, the growth is, is, is incredibly impressive. And I think that has to do with how really capital formation has evolved. If you step back, you know, 10 years, but then go even further, and I'm gonna turn the clock back all the way to when I joined the industry back in 1996. At that point, there were over 8,000 publicly traded companies in the United States. Today, it's less than half of that. The reason being is that companies are able to raise growth capital outside of the public markets through venture investing, growth equity [00:04:00] investing, private equity funds. And so what you're seeing is this trend of companies staying private much longer. You know, on average now, it's roughly 14 years versus, you know, 25 years ago, it was about four to five years. A decade ago, six to seven years. So you're seeing this evolution in terms of, you know, capital formation. So you've seen this huge growth, about 3X over the last decade, from about $3.5 trillion to almost $10 trillion in private equity alone. There's been a significant shift also in terms of, you know, really who's raising and deploying that capital and making those investments to a major concentration in some of the largest private markets firms in the world, controlling a lot of that capital formation. I'd say the last, you know, major structural shift is, is, is part of this. You're now seeing this true democratization of access to private markets and, you know, a, a [00:05:00] big uptick in terms of wealth firms offering this to individual investors, and that's caused this massive evolution in terms of vehicles for accessing private markets more easily Molly Mintz: That historical perspective provides strong contextualization for the near-term challenges to private equity investments. But what are the biggest risks to the asset class right now? And what strategies have you seen managers deploy to navigate these current market dynamics? Bill Stout: Well, you know, look, I, I, I think outside of the typical economic risks that, that come and go, um, really, I think what's happened over the last really five years in particular is that, you know, a lot of these private equity investors who've relied on, on cheap debt, um, you know, that's no longer available. So, you know, as interest rates have ticked higher, it's gonna make it much more challenging for a lot of [00:06:00] these private equity managers to earn an attractive return on that capital. So it's no longer relying on cheap debt, in, in fast exits, uh, in multiple expansion, but, but really now a prioritization around Better underwriting, improved operations, uh, more creative liquidity management. That's really where managers need to focus going forward. Um, you know, I think it's really these elevated borrowing costs that, that, that have constrained managers in a number of ways. Um, it's made it a bit more challenging for them when they underwrite these investments to find an attractive, uh, entry and exit point. Also, you've seen exit markets slow down or tighten up altogether over the past couple of years, and that's making it very difficult for managers to really monetize a lot of these investments, either through, you know, it could be strategic acquisitions or, or public listings. Um, and, and so it's really, you know, been this interesting convergence of, of [00:07:00] trends evolving, but one of the benefits is a, a true secondary market has evolved over the last decade. And so this secondary market is providing a lot of additional flexibility for both, uh, GPs as well as LPs to manage their liquidity, manage their asset allocations, and, and really help them with managing that deployment of capital into the private markets. Molly Mintz: Given that markets are cyclical, how does performance differ between public and private equities? Bill Stout: Well, I mean, the obvious is that, you know, you don't have the daily valuations in, in private markets. Um, so you have this difference in terms of the liquidity, the valuation methodologies, leverage, and then back to the, you know, sort of timing of exits, which can cause a, you know, a, a big difference in terms of the, what the experience is for an investor in publics versus private equity. Um, you know, historically, private markets or private equity in particular has [00:08:00] outperformed public equities by 200 to 400 basis points a year over a longer-term horizon. Um, you know, you've had 8% to 10% expected returns out of public markets, 10% to 14% longer term out of private equity. And some of the drivers of that excess return are around that illiquidity premium that you're getting from, from private equity. It's leverage, but it's also operational improvements, which are be- which are becoming more and more important today, active governance. Um, but, you know, there's massive dispersion, and so that's something we spend a lot of time talking about in, in private markets as compared to public markets. It really is around not just, you know, being in the right asset classes, but, um, it, it's really about manager selection. So that's really sort of where the vision, you know, or, or concerns shift to is manager selection. Molly Mintz: Vanguard's outlook is appropriately titled Optimistic but Measured for Private Equity, which I love. This feels like a lighthouse of [00:09:00] opportunity in the clouds of uncertainty in today's markets. So let's get into this positive perspective. In your research, you expect that high quality managers with reasonable fees will deliver high single digit annualized returns, outperforming public equities over the coming decade. Bill, what factors will drive this growth? Bill Stout: Yeah. Well, well, we are, we are optimistic, as you, as you know, Mali, uh, but, but we're very measured, um, because the return drivers are, are evolving. You know, as I noted earlier, no longer can managers just rely on, uh, you know, really, really cheap, uh, cheap interest rates, you know, uh, low cost of borrowing. You know, today, it, it's really in this environment, you know, disciplined underwriting, really understanding what, what you're paying for the asset is critical. But also, what's becoming more and more important, and this, uh, you know, is even prior to interest rates reaching record lows a few [00:10:00] years ago, strong operating capabilities, what's really differentiating managers' performance today. So, you know, we believe that if you have the right underwriting abilities, you can, you can find managers with those capabilities in-house. You know, valuations still matter, but you know, private companies continue to trade at more attractive multiples than public equities. Molly Mintz: Mm-hmm. Bill Stout: So we think that supports the case for the private equity illiquidity risk premium. But if we can find managers that really have that strong operating capability, they can deliver that alpha, uh, above the public equity markets. But I'd say you sort of, sort of put together the opportunity in private equity today. It's not about financial engineering or market timing, it's about disciplined execution. And high quality managers really can grow earnings, manage costs, and deploy capital thoughtfully, um, and those are the ones that are best positioned. Molly Mintz: Now taking this to an existential perspective, why is manager selection and [00:11:00] diversification across strategies, vintages, and regions important to this outlook and outcome? Bill Stout: Yeah. That's, look, the, the one theme that I think I mentioned a couple times already is that- Mm-hmm ... it, it's not just about the asset class selection and, and deploying, but it's really about who you're, you're investing with and, and how consistently. Um, you know, dispersion in private equity returns remain quite wide, um, and, and really in line with where they've been historically. But you know, really sometimes I think investors need to understand and reframe, you know, where has, have private equity returns been over the last decade. So, so looking at just 10-year IRRs over the last decade, 95th percentile, so top performing managers, have returned on average 38% per year, so significant outperformance. Whereas if you look at the other end of the spectrum, the, the bottom performers have produced in the 5th [00:12:00] percentile a negative 16% per year outcome. So that's a significant difference that you just don't see typically in the public markets. Molly Mintz: Mm-hmm. Bill Stout: Um, if you, if you sort of look at what's driving that, again, it's that deal sourcing, it's operational execution, and it's the ability to exit across, across these managers. But a critical part of this as well, it's not just that manager selection, it's, it's diversification. So you need to be dis- disciplined on that diversification by strategy. You can't just be in one single strategy. I think today what's hitting the headlines a lot is around software exposure. You need to be diversifying by vintages, so the year in which you allocate can be a very different experience from prior years And then also diversifying by regions because each region has their own factors impacting their economic growth and capital market conditions. So i- i- it's really that, again, disciplined manager selection, finding those best-in-class managers with those strong underwriting and [00:13:00] operational capabilities, but then, you know, being disciplined to executing and sticking to your strategy that's, again, diversified by, by vintage, by strategy, and by geography. That's how you build a successful private equity program. Ilja Hauerhof: Mm-hmm. Molly Mintz: While the private equity industry has matured, the private market overall is innovating at scale, speed, and with sophistication. More companies are staying private for longer, and some valuations are skyrocketing with astronomical scope. Your research shows that valuations for private companies are attractive compared to public markets. We're also seeing the popularity of secondaries, like we talked about, and other multi-fund or multi-manager vehicles rise. So in your view, what else is next on the horizon? Bill Stout: Well, look, I think in addition to what you noted about the secondary market continuing to evolve, which, which we completely agree with, I think [00:14:00] two other themes that maybe you hear a little bit about one, less about the other, one is around broader access. So I know there is that theme that we talked a little bit about. Wealth investors are now allocating to the private markets in a more, um, meaningful way, and, and private markets are becoming, you know, more of a core consideration for their asset allocation. And so the vehicles have evolved to make in, you know, investing and access, uh, more in line for what a individual investor really requires, whether it's your tax reporting, ability to really allocate and deploy in a more consistent manner. Uh, the ability to have some limited liquidity in, in these products is also important to individual investors, but the risks are also much higher. And so I think that's something that, that you really need to focus on as access expands into the wealth channel. But then I'd say the other one, which is less talked about, is cost discipline.[00:15:00] And, you know, even though these markets are maturing and you've seen this massive growth in private markets, fees haven't come down in line with the growth, and that's something where, where we see an evolution coming over the next decade. And, and we at Vanguard hope to play a part, um, in compressing those fees to investors over time as well. Molly Mintz: Bill, thank you so much for your time. It's been such a pleasure and a privilege to have you on the Look Forward podcast. Is there anything that we haven't discussed that you'd like to share with our listeners? Bill Stout: Yeah. So, you know, look, I, I think there's one thing in, in particular when we talk about democratization and access to private markets, these investments aren't for everyone. Molly Mintz: Mm-hmm. Bill Stout: And so when, when considering an allocation to private markets, really understanding the risks, including the illiquidity risk as well as the active management risk, that's something that I think we as an, really as an industry need to do a better job of educating investors before they're allocating [00:16:00] to these types of products. Evan Gunter: Thank you for looking forward with us, Bill. See you next time. Bill Stout: Thanks, Molly. Molly Mintz: Private equity, secondaries, venture capital, and real assets have become integral components of multi-asset portfolios for a broadening investor base, and private credit is now playing a bigger part of this transformation. These assets present new challenges for sound risk management practices as private assets are less liquid, more opaque, and frequently complex. But this is quickly changing. Investors are increasingly seeking objective benchmarks, standardized reporting, and tools that support clear and consistent analysis, attributes long associated with public markets. Here we have two of S&amp;P Global's private market specialists, Evan Gunter, Director of Private Markets Analytics at S&amp;P Global Ratings, [00:17:00] and Ilya Hauerhoff, Director of Quantitative Research and Solutions for Private Markets at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence. Thank you both for joining the Look Forward podcast. Evan Gunter: Thanks for having us here, Molly. Ilja Hauerhof: Great to be with you. Molly Mintz: Super. So let's get started. Evan, I'd love to begin the conversation with you. The focus for this episode is on the forces driving resilience and expansion in private markets. Let's get started with the big picture before we get into the details and dynamics. How has the private credit market adapted over the last decade? What exactly laid the foundation for the growth and innovation that we're seeing in the asset class today? Evan Gunter: Thanks, Molly. So let's take a step back and talk about private markets more broadly. First of all, you've got private companies, and these private companies are getting bigger.[00:18:00] So a decade ago, we thought it was a big deal if a private company was reaching a billion-dollar valuation. They were so rare we called them unicorns. But those unicorns have given rise to decacorns, which are the private companies with more than a $10 billion valuation. And then those decacorns have given way to hectocorns, um, which I'll just refer to as private companies with more than $100 billion valuation. So who are some of these private companies with more than $100 billion valuation? We've got OpenAI, you've got Anthropic, you've got SpaceX. These are companies that we read about in the daily news. They're household names, and they're private. What we're seeing is that with as much capital as is flowing into private markets, private companies can get bigger and stay private for longer [00:19:00] Now, part of the private markets is also made up of private companies that are funded with private debt. 15 years ago, banks were adopt-adapting to a post-GFC financial regulatory environment, and they were pulling back from some types of lending, including some of their corporate lending. Meanwhile, alternative asset managers were growing. They had cash to deploy as investors were increasing their allocations to alternatives. Interest rates were low, and this was supporting an active market for LBOs to take companies private. Private credit direct lenders then were able to carve out a niche providing middle market debt capital that was often serving as a source of funding for those LBO transactions of private equity firms In the lower for longer rate environment, this growth accelerated, and then it [00:20:00] took off after the COVID pandemic. With more assets to manage, the private credit providers expanded the scope of their lending to asset-based finance and to more types of credit. So as we've seen private credit grow, we've also seen it expand to more parts of the market. Molly Mintz: Thanks, Evan. That history certainly provides important context for us to understand current conditions for private credit. The past six years or so, as I mentioned in the introduction to this episode, have seen the biggest increase in allocations and investment flows, and private credit achieved annual returns of almost ten percent without having any full years of negative returns, according to S&amp;P Global's research. And against this backdrop, Ilya, your team's insights find that the five largest managers represent a sizable portion of the private credit market. My question is for you, what is the state of concentration risk in the market right now, and what are your expectations for growth in credit [00:21:00] AUM with these prominent players looking forward? Ilja Hauerhof: Thanks, Molly. Yeah, while private equity laid the foundation for investors stepping into private assets, it's private credit that has seen really the biggest increase in allocations and investment inflows since the beginning of twenty-twenty. However, the private credit market, uh, became really highly concentrated with the five largest players, Apollo, Blackstone, Ares, KKR, and Carlyle, controlling a significant share of the market, which is currently estimated to be over three million AUM. Um, as of the third quarter of twenty-twenty-five, our analysis shows that their combined credit assets under management exceeds two trillion. Um, based on our visible alpha consensus estimate, this concentration is expected to, uh, intensify, with the top managers' credit AUM projected to grow at a compound annual rate of nearly thirteen percent over the next four years, reaching approximately [00:22:00] three-point-three trillion by the third quarter of twenty-twenty-nine. To put this into perspective, a recent Morgan Stanley study has estimated private credit to become a five-trillion market by twenty-twenty-nine, and the top five players, uh, would manage nearly seventy percent of it, according to our estimates. Molly Mintz: Thanks, Ilya. This growth is absolutely dependent on private credit's continued innovation, and we already know that adaptation is a signature feature of private credit, which continues to reinvent itself. Evan, you touched on this a bit before, but what trends are you seeing take shape as private credit expands its traditional footprint into asset-backed finance, securitizations, fund finance, and infrastructure? Evan Gunter: Thanks, Molly. It's not just the types of lending that we're seeing expand in private credit, but it's also the investor base itself that's expanding. [00:23:00] Uh, Ilya was just mentioning, uh, that estimate that the private credit market could grow to $5 trillion. That's not just based on the same investors deploying new money. That also includes new investors coming into this market, uh, and investing new capital. New investors include retail as well as institutional investors. And on the institutional side, insurers have been, uh, a growing part of this market, a new growing part of this market for investors. These institutional investors have led to a demand for private credit investments that were backed by hard assets or assets that provided contractual cash flows, and that's contributing to private credit's expansion beyond middle market corporate direct lending. And this expansion is going to infrastructure, to fund finance, to asset-based finance, like you mentioned, uh, and also to large [00:24:00] corporates and even more parts of the credit market One thing that changed is that alternative asset managers grew large enough, with enough size and enough scale, that they could build vertically integrated platforms that span from origination to distribution. They can originate financing for assets that range broadly from royalties to asset leasing, as well as loans for aircrafts, containers, timeshares, and even more esoteric assets like music rights. Asset-based finance is finding ways to fund many diverse types of assets. And there's also some overlap between asset-based finance and fund finance. Just look at the growth of multi-strategy funds from alternative asset managers. These funds can seek opportunities and relative values, whether they're in fund finance, asset-based finance, or elsewhere, and this growth [00:25:00] is picking up, and it's also blurring the lines, uh, between, uh, fund finance and asset-based finance. Molly Mintz: ABF has been part of credit investment strategies for over a decade, but what I found very interesting is that S&amp;P Global market intelligence data from the earnings calls of more than 50 private equity firms shows that mentions of asset-based finance surged sevenfold between 2021 and 2025. And on top of this, recent headlines have christened ABF as private credit's next big thing, the next chapter, and the next frontier. So with this in mind, Ilya, what are your expectations for the five largest managers, as you mentioned, that's Apollo, Blackstone, Aries, KKR, and Carlisle, to approach asset-based finance within their credit portfolios through the remainder of this decade? Ilja Hauerhof: Thanks, Malin. Yeah, indeed, uh, interesting finding, right? Uh, as those [00:26:00] executives on those earnings calls, uh, continuously and increasingly mention asset-based finance, uh, talking about it because it's a new shiny thing, right? That they wanna showcase to the investors. And I would, I would expect them to keep leaning into the asset-based finance as the primary growth driver within the credit portfolio because the strategy is already scaling quickly with, uh, asset-based finance AUM among the top five managers you mentioned already, uh, nearly five hundred billion as of Q3 twenty twenty-five, and has grown twenty-five percent year over year. Uh, and it's projected to, uh, compound at twenty-one percent annually going into twenty twenty-nine. Uh, and on that trajectory, ABF, uh, or asset-based finance share of the credit portfolio is expected to rise from currently twenty-four percent to, uh, twenty-nine percent by twenty twenty-nine, uh, with the total ABF, uh, AUM surpassing one trillion, um, across those firms.[00:27:00] A big part of ABF appeal is the greater transparency in the underlying assets, which helps investors, uh, you know, more, uh, clearly assets collateral quality and structure specific risks and builds trust in, in the vehicle. And from the asset owner's perspective, ABF can improve liquidity, you know, by financing pools of assets, enabling more flexible capital management and easy access to funds. Um, tailwinds that reinforce its attractiveness, and it takes a large share of the private credit portfolios Molly Mintz: So we've talked extensively about the opportunity side of the spectrum. I think it's time to realign our focus to the risk angle. Evan, you're critically analyzing credit risks day in and day out in your role in S&amp;P Global Ratings, and Ilya, you're developing extraordinary tools to dev- to assess market and company sentiment on such topics in your, across your team at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence. As private markets [00:28:00] generally, and private credit specifically, continue to mature, adapt, and innovate, I'd love to know from both of your perspectives what, in your view, should market participants be watching out for? Evan, we could start with you. Evan Gunter: Thanks, Molly. You know, there are certain risks that are just part of the private credit market. These include liquidity, transparency, and complexity. For liquidity, the underlying assets that a private credit manager holds, so that direct lending loan, that private credit instrument, it tends to be illiquid. There's not an existing secondary market for these instruments. Uh, there are some attempts to start secondary markets for them, but it's not to the extent, uh, that we have secondary markets for bonds or for broadly syndicated leverage loans. To match the liabilities of the funds with these illiquid assets, many s- fund [00:29:00] structures and many fund managers, uh, can limit investors' access to redemptions, or they have closed-in vehicles that don't allow for redemptions. For transparency, it's a private market. We call it a private market for a reason. You don't have the same level of systemic transparency and disclosure that you have in public markets. And for complexity, asset-based finance is an important part of the story of growing complexity in the private credit market. Private credit is expanding into new types of credit. Asset-based finance is one of them. Digital infrastructure, large corporates is another, and this is leading to growing complexity in the market. It's also leading to growing complexity in the instruments themselves and in the interconnections between entities and between parties in this market. With liquidity, [00:30:00] transparency, and complexity as risks that are inherent in the private credit market, an investor must enter the market with eyes open to these risks, and also with an understanding of their own risk tolerances and to gauge what exposure level is correct for them Molly Mintz: Ilia, do you have a similar perspective or an entirely different view? Ilja Hauerhof: Um, pretty much aligned with what Evan was saying. I would say that as private credit continues to grow, mature, and integrate with broader financial markets, attention should shift from identifying basic risks to understanding how those risks transform under different conditions. Uh, during periods of economic stability and robust capital inflows, vulnerabilities may quietly accumulate, remaining hidden until external pressure exposes them. Um, competitive dynamics and strong investor demand can sustain asset prices and obscure early [00:31:00] warnings, signs of financial strain, uh, among borrowers. Um, this can result in risk emerging only after, you know, a broader economic shift or performances declines rather than being immediately apparent. And additionally, the influx of new capital and participants reshaping, you know, the market practices. Lenders may gradually relax the lending criteria, such as increasing leverage or reduce, uh, protective covenants, um, in response to the needs to deploy funds, which can, you know, amplify the risk over time. Um, so the movement into less established areas of private credit brings new challenges, uh, as with asset-based finance, for example. Uh, these segments often lack comprehensive historical data or proven risk assessment frameworks. Um, and moreover, as private credit becomes more intertwined between bankers, insurance, institutional investors, and other players, uh, you know, the stress spread across this financial system increases. Um, investors [00:32:00] in private markets must prioritize access to detailed and, uh, up-to-date information to effectively monitor and manage those risks, especially when market conditions becomes challenging. Um, this approach helps really bridge the transparency gap and supports better and faster data-driven decision-making Molly Mintz: So with all of this in mind, our last question, as appropriate for the Look Forward podcast, is forward-looking. I'd love to know what structural shifts need to come into fruition for private market allocations to align with long-term objectives and risk budgets to flexibly fit the needs of the myriad of investor profiles and unlock the future growth that we've discussed in this conversation today? Evan Gunter: Sure. Thanks, Molly. So between the risks of liquidity, transparency, and complexity, I, I think I'm, [00:33:00] uh, on Ilya's team with this one, that transparency could be the key to unlocking future growth. I, I like that Ilya was mentioning the investors' need for access to details, uh, for up-to-date information on their investments. I-- Yeah, I, I agree with this. Transparency is a key to unlocking future growth in this market. In the public credit markets, you have audited financial statements, you've got market prices, and you often have public ratings for instruments. But that's on the public market. In the private market, uh, you don't have such systemic tools of transparency and s- such systemic sources of a look-through across the whole market. In the private market, I, I think if we can get new tools and new standards to support clearer reporting and more transparent communications of risks and returns, it would help to add to the level of [00:34:00] transparency and also help to add to the level of confidence for investors within the system Molly Mintz: Quite the mic drop moment to end on, but Ilija, if there's any other thoughts on transparency, I'd love to give you the last word. Ilja Hauerhof: Yeah, no, transpa- transparency, uh, can only be unlocked with the relevant data, right, which, uh, investors and market participants will have access to more timely data. So building kind of this, uh, stronger infrastructure centered on transparency and standardization, this will empower investors to confidently size, compare, and monitor exposures. And, um, you know, at S&amp;P Mo- uh, Global Market Intelligence, we see the next stage of growth is directly tied to improving transparency in private markets participants across asset classes and providing standardized but deeper, more granular performance benchmarks, including the differentiated strategies like asset-based finance, so allocations can be assessed against [00:35:00] long-term goals and risk budgets Molly Mintz: Well, you heard it here first, folks. Evan, Ilya, thank you so much for your time. Thank you so much for joining the Look Forward podcast. Is there anything that we haven't discussed today that you would like to share with our listeners? Evan Gunter: Uh, first I'll start off just, uh, wanna say, Molly, thank you for having us as a guest. Uh, it's-- Like we're always trying to bring new insights to the market, uh, through private markets analytics, uh, often using data that Ilya and his group provides through market intelligence. Uh, so being able to come here, uh, on a podcast like this and talk about our research and what we're finding and what we're seeing in the market, uh, it's a great opportunity to, uh, help us share this with a broader audience. So, uh, so thank you so much for hosting us. Ilja Hauerhof: Yes, I would like to add, first of all, thank you, Molly, for, for hosting us as well, and, [00:36:00] um, as Evan mentioned, right, so the quantitative research and solutions team within the S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, um, we, we cover all, uh, asset classes and provide in-depth data-driven research, including private markets as well. So for everyone who wants to read our latest publications, head to Quantitative Research and Solutions S&amp;P Global, uh, website, uh, or just email us, uh, qrs@spglobal.com. Evan Gunter: And I'm gonna piggyback on that one. Uh, for additional research from Private Markets Analytics, you can go to spglobal.com/ratings/privatemarkets. Molly Mintz: As you've heard from Bill Stout, Evan Gunter, and Ilya Hauerhoff, the key to unlocking the next stage of growth truly lies in advancing transparency and data-driven insights. This reinforces the clear message of our joint [00:37:00] research, Partner Perspectives: The Future of Capital Markets, Unlocking Potential Ahead. This is a moment of real transition, an inflection point, and the opportunities ahead won't be unlocked by any single participant acting alone. Infrastructure, policy, data, and market practice will all need to evolve, and that evolution will be shaped by collaboration. That's what makes this partnership between S&amp;P Global and Vanguard so important, bringing together complimentary expertise to offer clarity in a complex world with insights designed not only to inform but to help market participants channel knowledge into action. To learn more, read the full collection of research on spglobal.com. I'm your host, Molly Mintz, and this is the Look Forward podcast. Thank you for [00:38:00] listening ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/podcasts/look-forward/partner-perspectives-precision-in-a-shifting-bond-landscape</link><description>In this episode of Partner Perspectives, a special miniseries within the Look Forward podcast, host Molly Mintz explores the rapid evolution and enduring resilience of global fixed income markets. Drawing on S&amp;amp;P Global and Vanguardâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99;s joint research, Partner Perspectives: Unlocking Potential Ahead, the conversation examines how geopolitical disruption, technological innovation, and  new market innovations and infrastructure are transforming the bond market for issuers, investors, and portfolio </description><title>Look Forward | Episode 33: Partner Perspectives: Precision in a Shifting Bond Landscape</title><pubDate>18 June 2026 15:00:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Molly Mintz</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Look Forward 18 June 2026 Look Forward | Episode 33: Partner Perspectives: Precision in a Shifting Bond Landscape By Molly Mintz In this episode of Partner Perspectives, a special miniseries within the Look Forward podcast, host Molly Mintz explores the rapid evolution and enduring resilience of global fixed income markets. Drawing on S&amp;P Global and Vanguardâs joint research, Partner Perspectives: Unlocking Potential Ahead, the conversation examines how geopolitical disruption, technological innovation, and new market innovations and infrastructure are transforming the bond market for issuers, investors, and portfolio managers alike. Alexandre Birry of S&amp;P Global Ratings provides the macro-credit perspective, explaining that bond markets have remained orderly and functional despite geopolitical uncertainty, energy price volatility, and broader macro risks. He discusses the surge in tech and AI-related issuance, the growing importance of selectivity in credit markets, and the longer-term potential of infrastructure innovations such as tokenization, DeFi, stablecoins, and digital settlement rails. Matt Chessum of S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence unpacks the growth of global fixed income ETFs, which have expanded into a multi-trillion-dollar market by offering investors diversified bond exposure through a single tradable vehicle. Chessum explains how bond ETFs can improve accessibility, transparency, and price discovery (especially during periods of stress), while also pointing to a future in which digitalization and tokenized market infrastructure further enhance market liquidity and flexibility. Jeffrey Johnson of Vanguard takes listeners inside the mechanics of bond index fund management, explaining why fixed income indexing is far more complex than it may first appear. With benchmarks like the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index containing roughly 14,000 securities, Johnson describes the âart and scienceâ of sampling, risk alignment, trading, and cost management required to closely track a benchmark. He emphasizes why low-cost bond index funds remain a critical source of diversification and ballast in uncertain markets. Chapters 00:00 Introduction to Partner Perspectives and the evolution of fixed income 03:00 Alex Birry on bond market resilience amid geopolitical uncertainty 05:25 Tech issuance, AI disruption, and the new status quo in credit risk 07:50 The future of bond market infrastructure: DeFi, stablecoins, and tokenization 10:45 Matt Chesham on how fixed income ETFs work and why theyâve grown so quickly 13:20 Structural cost advantages, diversification, and the appeal of bond ETFs 16:00 How bond ETFs improve liquidity, price discovery, and market access 20:10 ETFs in volatile markets: resilience, stress scenarios, and risk transfer 24:10 Looking ahead: digitalization, modular bond investing, and market evolution 29:45 Jeffrey Johnson on the complexity of managing bond index funds 31:45 Why fixed income indexing lagged equities and whatâs driving adoption now 35:10 How investors use broad and targeted bond index funds 37:10 The âart and scienceâ of tracking the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index 41:20 Why active decision-making powers passive bond portfolios 43:20 Why bonds remain essential as portfolio ballast in uncertain times 45:00 Final takeaways and the importance of collaboration across markets This podcast was authored by a cross-section of representatives from S&amp;P Global and in certain circumstances external guest authors. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of any entities they represent and are not necessarily reflected in the products and services those entities offer. This research is a publication of S&amp;P Global and does not comment on current or future credit ratings or credit rating methodologies. Look Forward A changing world requires new insights, new analysis, and new approaches. Our clients require expertise and analysis that looks at the big picture. Explore More View Full Transcript Molly Mintz: [00:00:00] Welcome to Partner Perspectives, a thought leadership initiative from S&amp;P Global that brings leading institutions together to examine the trends shaping global markets and deliver forward-looking analysis that helps market participants navigate uncertainty, identify opportunities, and anticipate what's ahead This miniseries within the Look Forward podcast spotlights our first volume produced jointly with Vanguard entitled Partner Perspectives: The Future of Capital Markets, Unlocking Potential Ahead. Across three episodes, we explore the key themes at the heart of this research, including shifts in global market structure, index diversification, fixed income resilience, and the evolution of private markets. Leaders from S&amp;P Global and Vanguard alike discuss [00:01:00] what these changes could mean for investors, institutions, and the broader market ecosystem. Our third episode takes a closer look at the shifting fixed income landscape, covering how supply and demand momentum in bond markets are contending with a more fractured world, and how the right benchmarks can help investors stay on track. Having adapted to the end of the zero interest rate policy era, global bond markets are facing a new frontier of dynamics and transformations against the backdrop of uncertainty and volatility. Market buoyancy is being largely shaped by the tech sector, particularly with expectations for AI's disruptive potential. The digitalization of financial markets promises greater fluidity in capital movements, and the rapid growth of ETFs is adding a new layer of liquidity. Innovations in bond market infrastructure and the development of fixed income exchange traded [00:02:00] funds support longer term market prospects. Our conversation starts with an exploration of the structural shifts that are reshaping the global bond market with Alex Birry, Head of Credit Research and Insights at S&amp;P Global Ratings, and Matt Cheshum, Executive Director of Equity and Analytic Products at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence. Their research highlights how cautious optimism for how innovation is laying the groundwork for greater efficiency and flexibility in bond markets, even if the journey remains complex and nonlinear. Then we dive deep into the technicals of benchmarking in bond markets with Jeffrey Johnson, Head of Fixed Income Product at Vanguard, to learn how bond index fund managers balance the need to maintain their benchmark alignment while capitalizing on opportunities during periods of market uncertainty. We're together to talk about how bond markets are changing, and although I'm eager to jump headfirst [00:03:00] into discussing innovation in fixed income, I'd be remiss to skip the fundamentals. Starting with you, Alex, your team in S&amp;P Global Ratings analyzes issuance, financing conditions, and other key risk indicators. Against the backdrop of our world in disruption, what is the state of the bond market today? Alexandre Birry: Geopolitics, uh, clearly, uh, dominates the, uh, conversation right now, and particularly the, uh, conflict in the, uh, Middle East. And I think markets are really, uh, grappling with uncertainty around the, uh, duration of the, um, effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the, uh, potential impact on the, on critical infrastructure. So all that really feeds into, uh, energy price, uh, volatility, and that has as well a knock-on effect on, uh, financial markets, including the, uh, the fixed income parts. That said, uh, I'd say it's important to keep some, uh, some perspective. At the time of recording, uh, the sixteenth of, uh, March, [00:04:00] bond markets remain orderly and functional, even if the, uh, sentiment is a little bit, um, unsettled. Global liquidity has proven, um, resilient, a-and we are seeing that's reflected in both the, uh, demand and the, uh, volume of issuance, uh, getting done. So, um, certainly pricing has adjusted to, uh, to reflect higher macro risks around, uh, growth and, uh, and inflation. If you look at the, uh, 10-year benchmark yields, uh, actually both in the US and in Europe, they're up roughly thirty-five basis points, give or take. So that's, that said, I do... Pricing is, it's healthy. It's markets doing their, their, their job really. Uh, but and we are increasingly seeing as well probably, um, more, um, more selectivity, whether it's by, uh, geography, by sector, or rating, uh, category. I mean, of course, I have to say that this resilience isn't, uh, guaranteed, that's for sure. It will be tested depending on how the, uh, [00:05:00] geopolitical situation evolves. Uh, but for now, I'd say that bond markets are showing composure. They are absorbing shocks, they are repricing risk, and they are continuing to, uh, to function as a, uh, critical source of, uh, financing Molly Mintz: This context is crucial. You mentioned sectors, and I wanna bring our conversation to that focus. Your research identifies that sector concentrations are surging amid strong bond issuance, particularly in tech and for AI investment. And since we came out with this research, we've seen risks play out in real time with AI-related software disruption across markets. Can this dynamic be considered an outlier specific to this industry, or is this the new status quo of credit risk and opportunities? Alexandre Birry: Hmm. Um, I mean, you said the, uh, the, the context, you're right. Technology, uh, technology issuance, uh, last year represented about [00:06:00] seventeen percent of the total of, uh, non-financial corporate issuance, so that made it really the, uh, the largest sector on par with, uh, utilities, which traditionally is the, uh, the dominant issuer. So tech now is very much at the core of the, uh, credit markets. You mentioned the, um, the, the recent AI-related, uh, wobble in the, uh, in, in the software sector. I think what's interesting there is how quickly the, uh, the narrative, um, flips. Uh, one month's-- Well, yeah, just a few months ago, the debate was really about, uh, whether AI would live up to the, uh, expectation and, uh, how much productivity and, uh, and automation it could deliver. And then suddenly the, uh, the concern shifted to whether AI could actually disrupt or even, uh, substitute, uh, parts of incumbent sectors, uh, like the, uh, software sector with, uh, therefore some, uh, some strong implications on our valuation. So is this dynamic an outlier? I don't think so. I think that first, uh, [00:07:00] bouts of market, um, anxiety a-and sharp volatility are likely to recur. We're, we're late in the cycle. We're coming off of long periods of, uh, market depreciation and very, um, favorable funding conditions, but with increasingly narrow economic growth. And at the same time, we're also in a phase of, um, of material, um, structural disruption, not just AI, I also mean the rise in private markets and crypto. And I think really those, those forces are combined to create both opportunity and uncertainty. And I think for, for credit investors, it's, it's a fine line between being vigilant and, uh, becoming unnerved. And I think it also means, uh, that selectivity, uh, matters more than ever. Molly Mintz: Well, there's clearly more change on the horizon. With debt markets in this transition and in search of enhanced liquidity, what innovations around bond market infrastructure should market participants pay attention to? [00:08:00] Alexandre Birry: I think when we, when we talk about markets being in search of, um, enhanced liquidity, that, that search can really take several forms. One is, uh, geographical. I'm thinking of local bond markets trying to unlock pools of domestic liquidity to diversify funding sources. I think that's, uh, that's been gaining momentum, but will be, of course, tested by the current conflict. Another one is, um, is more structural, uh, through the rise in, uh, in private markets. And I think here the big question is, um, it's not just growth, it's, uh, what it would take for retail investors to safely become a, um, a systemic part of that ecosystem, if you think of transparency, liquidity, and, and risk management. And then there's the, uh, technological dimension. Uh, a lot of attention is focused on, uh, decentralized finance and the, um, the potential of, uh, blockchain, uh, technology. And really for that to scale meaningfully, one prerequisite is, um, i-is missing, [00:09:00] and there's a piece that's still missing. It's really the, um, the, uh, this bridge required, uh, between DeFi, uh, and traditional finance, or rather the, the other way around, i.e., the need for a reliable, safe, and widely accepted, um, token that can really bridge, uh, those both worlds. And whether we're talking about s- uh, central bank digital currencies, CBDCs or, or stable coins I think these, uh, instruments really need to operate seamlessly between, uh, platforms and blockchains really so that we have, uh, real-time exchanges without, uh, trapping liquidity. And I think without that, we won't see any material, uh, progress in secondary markets and as well in turn, that means, um, uh, limited scope for primary is-issuance. And that's actually one of the reasons why we, uh, we launched, uh, back in December twenty twenty-three our stablecoin stability assessment, assessing really the, uh, the stability, uh, or the rather the, uh, [00:10:00] ability of a stablecoin to maintain a stable value relative to a, to a fiat currency to see if they can play this role Uh, final points. I think I need to mention regulations. I think that they, um, there has been regulatory progress in that, um, in that context, particularly around, uh, stable coins in the US and Europe. But I'd flag that, uh, policy approaches do diverge significantly, uh, with the US, for instance, leaning very heavily on stable coins. Uh, China, on the other hand, focus more on CBDCs, and then you have Europe somewhere in between. So, uh, I think there are really a lot of, uh, signals to, uh, to watch to understand how this evolves and, uh, and also how quickly. Molly Mintz: Alex, thank you so much for your incredible insight. Matt, I'm going to shift the focus over to you and your deep expertise because there's one innovation we have yet to discuss. A tremendous part of this innovation has come from the expansion of global fixed [00:11:00] income ETFs, with their assets under management reaching three point two trillion as of December 6th, 2025. That's according to S&amp;P Global's research. So Matt, my first question for you, how do these exchange traded funds work, and what's driving the growth of these products? Matthew Chessum: Yeah, sure. So when we talk about global fixed income ETFs, we're really talking about taking what used to be quite a fragmented dealer-driven bond market and wrapping it in a single tradable share. So if we think about it logically, at a basic level, a bond ETF holds a basket of bonds that are designed to track a particular index or a defined strategy that might be treasuries, global corporates, high yield, or a mix of bonds from several different sectors. All of those investments are then held in a single fund, the units of which are tradable like a single equity. Now, this instrument is subsequently called an exchange traded fund, or an ETF for short. Investors can then buy or sell shares of that [00:12:00] ETF on an exchange throughout the day, just like in equity. Uh, behind the scenes, there are financial entities called authorized participants who usually, um, consist of large financial institutions, uh, people who play that role normally, or institutions who play that role normally, uh, major banks, broker-dealers and specialist trading firms, and they look to create and redeem shares in large blocks by delivering or receiving the underlying bonds, and that helps keep the ETF price stay close to the value of its holdings. Now, that seemingly simple structure solves a lot of the practical headaches of owning individual bonds, sourcing lines of illiquid issues, dealing with minimum lot sizes or, uh, managing several different maturities or, or reinvestment strategies. Um, the ETF does all of that in one trade, and crucially, it does it with intraday pricing and transparency that you don't simply always have if you're phoning dealers, uh, for quotes Continually throughout the day. Now, the research piece that we're basing this [00:13:00] podcast on highlights that bond ETFs facilitate diversified fixed income exposure without the operational complexities inherent in individual bond acquisitions, and that they enhance transparency, including, um, through intraday pricing visi-visibility as I've, uh, explained above. Now, in terms of the actual growth story, um, I think that the numbers really speak for themselves. As you just mentioned, global fixed income ETF assets under management reached about $3.2 trillion as of the 6th of December 2025, and that's up from just half a trillion in 2016. So we've seen more than a fivefold increase in just under a decade. So really, in my opinion, there are a few key drivers that sit behind this impressive level of growth that we're seeing. So the first one would be a structural cost advantage. So bond ETFs tend to carry lower expense ratios than many traditional active fixed income funds, and the ability to trade on exchange can also help [00:14:00] investors manage those transaction costs. Our paper explicitly cites that cost ef-efficiencies, including reduced, uh, expense ratios relative to active management alternatives, is one of the core reasons, um, that adoption has accelerated over the last few years. Now, one trade can also give you exposure to thousands of bonds across different countries, sectors, and rating buckets, so access and diversification is another key driver of this growth. Um, allocations across, uh, bond ETFs have broadened across treasury securities for core fixed income investment-grade corporate credit and high-yield instruments, and they've all been supported by attractive yields and fees as well You could also look towards the flexibility and implementation because ETFs trade on an intraday basis. They've become tools not just for long-term alloc- as- um, allocation, but also for tactical moves. You see hedging of interest rate or c- credit exposure, and they also allow investors to adjust duration [00:15:00] pretty quickly as well. In the market, you can see that there's also a blend of passive and active strategies that's now become available. Passive still really dominates at about eighty-two percent of the fixed income ETF market, but active bond ETFs are now a real genuine growth engine across the ETF landscape. Um, active AUM surged about fifty-two percent year on year to around naught point five nine trillion dollars, um, signaling the investor demand for strategic credit selection within t- ETF wrappers is a real thing and is a real driver of growth. So when you put all of that together, you've got a structure that maps very neatly onto what investors are actually asking for today, in my opinion at least. So you've got liquid, transparent, low-cost fixed income exposure that still allows for that nuance in how risk is taken, and perhaps more importantly in current market conditions, how risk is, uh, generally being managed. Molly Mintz: You've identified that bond ETFs [00:16:00] clearly have structural advantages, going as far to say in your research that these instruments are proving their value as essential components of modern investment strategies, offering unprecedented access, efficiency, and flexibility in fixed income allocation as the market matures. So now I'm gonna challenge you with my next question. How has their development affected market effectiveness and investor accessibility? Matthew Chessum: Yeah, sure. So you quoted that line from the research about bond ETFs proving their value. Now, in my opinion, that's not just an exaggeration, it's a real summary of two big impacts. So how the market works and really who gets to participate. So on market effectiveness, again, in my opinion, there are a few clear channels to, to look over here. So bond ETFs add a bit of an extra layer of liquidity, if you like. So bond ETFs have created this additional liquidity layer, allowing investors to transfer risk exposure effectively without requiring [00:17:00] transactions in the underlying securities. That's, that's a line that comes directly from our report. So what that means is instead of everyone trying to trade individual bonds, many of which can often have variable liquidity profiles, they can transact in a single centralized instrument. Now, that tends to smooth both price discovery, and it can also help to keep the overall system functioning better, especially when some of the, uh, underlying cash, uh, cash market can on occasion be quite patchy. So better price discovery and transparency. You can also see in the-- that our paper notes that the price discovery function of ETFs relative to underlying bonds has enhanced market transparency and efficiency in the overall financial ecosystem. Now, in plain English, that means that because ETF shares trade continuously, they provide a real-time signal of where bonds of baskets are clearing, which can then lead to informed valuations in the over-the-counter bond market as well. So that kind of leads on to the next step, which [00:18:00] is more effect- more efficient execution for market participants. So you've got the combination of lower ongoing fees and the ability to execute in size on exchange, and I believe that, again, in my opinion, that's really enhanced market efficiency, particularly when you compare that to building or rebalancing bespok- bespoke, uh, bond portfolios one line at a time. When we look at investor accessibility, the change has arguably been even more profound. Um, we talk often about democratizing the bond market, and the research is pretty explicit that bond ETFs have also democratized bond market access, uh, providing enhanced portfolio construction capabilities for both retail and smaller institutional investors. Historically, if you weren't a big institution with deeper relationships, getting sensible diversification in bonds was difficult and pretty expensive. But now, with small ticket sizes, a retail investor can own a slice of [00:19:00] any, pretty much any part of the global fixed income market. Um, because there are ETFs covering different duration buckets, credit qualities, and region investors who previously could only hold a single bond fund, um, can now also fine-tune their fixed income profile. For example, they can combine a, a short duration treasury ETF with an ingre- uh, an investment grade credit ETF to target a specific, uh, risk and return mix, and that's led to more nuanced portfolio construction across the whole investor base. We're also seeing, uh, improvements in the management of liquidity mismatches. They're, they're being managed a lot more carefully. If you, uh, look in our paper again, it acknowledges concerns around potential liquidity differences between ETF secondary market trading and the underlying bond market depth, but notes that these are being increasingly well managed. Now, that evolution in how market makers, [00:20:00] authorized participants, and regulators think about liquidity is, in my opinion, a bit of a sign itself, um, of the market becoming more mature and effective. So really, their development hasn't just given investors a new product, it's also changed how risk is transferred, how prices are formed, and who can realistically access, uh, institutional-grade, uh, bond exposure. Molly Mintz: With this context and with this deep insight, I wanna bring the conversation and connect it back to Alex's discussion of resilience against market volatility and the performance of credit markets within these dynamics. So your research also points out that ETFs have demonstrated considerable resilience across market conditions, and mechanisms are evolving to address potential stress scenarios. How do you anticipate their role and performance in the markets to play out and evolve as geopolitical risk becomes the norm? Matthew Chessum: So look, I [00:21:00] think the uncomfortable reality is that geopolitics has gone from being something that kind of brought around the occasional shock to recently a standing feature on the investment landscape. Um, our research describes global bond markets as showing resilience despite heightened policy uncertainty and a more fragmented geopolitical landscape, but it al- it's also cautious that this resilience shouldn't be taken for granted. Now, against that backdrop, um, bond ETFs have a few characteristics that shape how they may behave. Um, I think that they've got, uh, proven resilience across a, a certain, uh, plethora of different market conditions. Again, our report states that ETFs have demonstrated considerable resilience across market conditions, um, and mechanisms are evolving to address potential stress scenarios. Now, that's partly structural through the creation and redemption process and the presence of multiple liquidity providers, but partly practical as well as the [00:22:00] ecosystem has really learned from episodes of volatility that we've been through in recent years. We've also noticed that, uh, bond ETFs, uh, act as a bit of a conduit for risk transfer in stress markets. So in a world where geopolitical events can trigger these real big sudden shifts in rate spreads or cross-border flows, having one single instrument that allows investors to rapidly adjust exposure is incredibly valuable. Our paper notes that the rapid growth of ETFs is adding a new layer of liquidity, further transforming the dynamics of the bond market. Now, my personal expectation is that in future stress episodes, whether that's driven by conflict, sanctions or trade tensions, we're gonna continue to see bond ETFs acting as the first port of call for reallig- for reallocating, uh, fixed income risk. We're also seeing a greater inter-level of interaction with more digital and, uh, with a more digital and tokenized market. Um, you can see the same section of the [00:23:00] report talks about tokenization, digital bonds and stable coins as emerging components of market infrastructure, moving us towards more real-time settlement, uh, fractional ownership and democratized access to capital. As these opportunities develop, bond ETFs could really start to plug into them. For example, being used more widely as collateral or traded on platforms with faster s- settlement. All of that, um, is gonna further support their role during geopolitical stress by reducing some of the operational frictions that would otherwise exist. Um, but I say all of this, of course, with a bit of a need for cautious optimism as well. The authors, uh, c-collectively are all very clear. Innovations, including ETFs, are really starting to lay the groundwork for greater efficiency and flexibility, but the journey, uh, is probably gonna remain somewhat complex and, and nonlinear, as we state. So in practice, I think that means that we should expect periods where ETF [00:24:00] trading volumes and discounts or premiums to NAV valuations spike in response to geopolitical headlines. Um, the structures are robust, but that's not gonna make risk disappear. Um, I think it's just gonna make it easier to see and probably, uh, it's gonna make, uh, fixed income assets through bond ETFs a, a little bit easier to trade. Molly Mintz: Matt, your forward-looking insight sets the stage for our final forward-looking question. To wrap up this insightful conversation, I'm here-- I'm eager to hear your respective outlooks on where these structural shifts will take us. Looking ahead and starting with you, Alex, what do you expect to materialize in the future to further transform the dynamics of the bond market and investing? Alexandre Birry: I mean, as you said, uh, well, I think Matt was saying that he's a cautious optimist. I'd, I'd say I'm probably the same, cautiously optimist, uh, optimistic about [00:25:00] how innovation is laying the groundwork for greater efficiency and, uh, flexibility in bond markets. I think as we discussed both in terms of, uh, well, at the same time in terms of geographical shifts, structural shifts, and, uh, and also technological. I think just for me, one, one longer term question is around trust. I think trust is really the, uh, the underlying pillar of bond markets at a time of material changes and time of reduced appetite for, uh, globally coordinated policy initiatives And I think for me, a key issue is, um, is whether markets themselves can establish governance, uh, transparency, a-and standards needed really to sustain that trust and confidence and to support a, um, a durable acceleration of growth. I think for me, actually, uh, the pace of additional innovation per se matters less than the, um, than the credibility of the, uh, standards and [00:26:00] frameworks that will sit around it. Matthew Chessum: Looking ahead, I'd try and link three items, uh, or three main themes from the research that together sketch out where bond investing might be heading in the, uh, coming months and years. So first, of course, I'm gonna, uh, point out the continued growth and specialization of bond ETFs. I think the ETF footprint, as we've already said, is, is already large, and I think that you can see the paper also suggests that both passive and active strategies are gonna remain important. Uh, I'd expect more granular products in the ETF space targeting more specific sectors, factors and duration baskets. I think we're also gonna see further growth in active bond ETFs where managers use the wrapper but kind of lean into the credit selection kind of curve positioning and, and securitized niches that can be offered through, um, the ETF wrapper. Um, going back to Alex's point, I think the second digitalize- digitalization of bond market infrastructure is gonna be important. You can see in, in the report that it's, uh, it highlights this. [00:27:00] It's quite clear that digitalization is gonna be uneven, but ultimately it's gonna cr- increase liquidity. I think tokenized money market funds, digital bonds and regulated stable coins are all pointed to as some of the building blocks of a system that's gonna be able to offer real-time settlement, fractional ownership and, uh, a more democratized access to capital. Um, I think for bond investors that could mean perhaps shorter settlement, uh, cycles and that would lead to a lower operational risk. I think you're gonna see the ability to move collateral and manage, uh, liquidity intraday far more efficiently. And potentially you're gonna have new forms of bond exposure that sit natively on digital ledgers but are still anchored in those more familiar credit frameworks that we all know and love. I think Third, there's gonna be a broader, more diversified bond ecosystem as well. Um, our research paper talks about the development of domestic bond [00:28:00] markets in emerging economies, which should, um, quote, "improve and diversify corporate access to financing and priv-provide a buffer against external volatility." And I think that even though those markets will still, uh, need to strengthen transparency and supervision as they grow, um, if we look at combining some of those with the rise of private credit and the ongoing role of public credit, I think the menu for fixed income investors is only getting wider from those more traditional sovereign and investment-grade corporates to, uh, securitized credit, private loans, digital bonds, and kind of pretty much everything in between. So really, if, if we zoom out, like, uh, I suppose the question is: Where does that leave us? Um, I'd say that we're moving towards a bond market that's more accessible for institutions and probably individuals alike. Uh, more modular as well with tools like ETFs, digital instruments, uh, private [00:29:00] credit sleeves that can all be combined and used in very different but also very precise ways. And probably more dependent, um, a market that's more dependent on robust infrastructure and data because as the system becomes more interconnected and more digital, um, the cost of weak plumbing and data i-i-is gonna rise. Molly Mintz: The forces shaping global credit markets are clearly profound. Shifting bond markets are offering the promise of greater efficiency and flexibility. Private markets are expanding and opening new avenues for growth. Tokenization and other innovations in the fixed-income market are transforming how assets are created and traded, and AI is redefining how risk is assessed and capital flows. These developments are not incremental. Instead, they represent a systemic shift toward an even more data-driven and dynamic financial market ecosystem. Our partnership with Vanguard provides deeper [00:30:00] insight on how the rapid expansion of exchange-traded funds, in particular, represents a new frontier for the global bond landscape. Jeffrey, in your research, you note that despite sounding easy, it truly requires a sophisticated approach to capture the risk and return of an appropriate benchmark through an index fund, and that bond index fund managers face unique challenges as compared to their equity-focused peers. What characteristics of the bond market create such complexities for bond index fund managers? Jeffrey Johnson: That's a great question and one that we hear all the time, and it really starts-- The complexity really starts with the fact that in the US bond market, there are about fourteen thousand different securities in the Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index. Uh, many of those bonds, uh, have limited liquidity. Uh, many of those bonds are traditionally traded on [00:31:00] an over-the-counter market, which means that a buyer and a seller needs to come together and negotiate a trade. Uh, there are cases where pricing transparency is limited, and all of these characteristics of the bond market, uh, require a substantially, uh, sophisticated approach, oftentimes leveraging, uh, technology and deep teams of experts to appropriately match the characteristics and then the returns, uh, of that benchmark. It's a process that we would liken to, uh, really requiring a blend of art and science. Molly Mintz: The growth of bond index funds and ETFs are a clear indication that investors have an increasing appreciation for the structural advantages of diversified fixed income exposure without the operational complexities that are inherent to individual bond acquisition. So from your vantage point, what is the current state of play amid [00:32:00] uncertain and dynamic markets? Jeffrey Johnson: The growth of indexing in fixed income has truly been remarkable, uh, but it did occur on a bit of a lag relative to the well-known growth that we've seen in equity indexing. Vanguard launched our first equity index fund, the Vanguard 500 Index, in 1976. It wasn't until 10 years later in 1986 that we launched the industry's first, uh, US Bond Index Fund. And it took quite a few years for the popularity of bond indexing to really catch up. Uh, by 2000, there were still only, you know, less than 30 bond index funds in the universe. But over the last 25 years, we've seen an explosion in growth. There are now about 400 different bond index funds available. They account for trillions of dollars in assets and roughly 40% of the assets in fixed income funds and [00:33:00] ETFs. And even over the last five years, bond index funds and ETFs have accounted for about four out of every five dollars that have gone into fixed income by investors. And, and, and we really think there are a couple big reasons why fixed income growth has been so strong. One of them has to do with fixed income index, uh, funds have really demonstrated that they're able to tightly track their benchmarks over time, and that's been battle-tested through a few very volatile market environments. 2008, uh, 2020, and 2022, uh, come to mind, where bond index funds really proved that they could closely track their benchmarks even in very volatile market conditions. Second big reason why I think, uh, fixed income investors have grown to appreciate the benefits of bond indexing is, is the cost. Uh, it, it is certainly an exposure now that investors can obtain in their portfolio to obtain broadly diversified exposure to [00:34:00] fixed income through an index at a very low cost. And the Vanguard Bond Index Fund, uh, you know, really leads the charge there at an expense ratio of only three basis points. That low cost is so important in fixed income, where your expected return on the asset class is a little bit lower than you would expect over time in other asset classes like equity. So that's why it's so important to just maintain as much of that return through a low cost for the investor as possible. And then the third reason why I think we've seen a big growth in the, uh, uptake of indexing in fixed income is that- It is an asset class where there are abundant opportunities for active managers, and we're very much believers, uh, that active can work in fixed income. Uh, but some investors don't have access to, uh, the best talent or the best performing active fixed income managers. And for those who are looking to minimize cost, control their exposures in their portfolios, uh, they now [00:35:00] have abundant choices in a broad array of fixed income funds, uh, and ETFs that index the market Molly Mintz: But how are investors actually using these products? Jeffrey Johnson: That's a great question, and, and, and we see a few different types of investors approach, uh, to fixed income indexing. One, uh, very much resonates with the way that we see many investors use equity index funds and ETFs in their portfolio. They look for broadly diversified, uh, exposures capturing, uh, the broad market in equities that might be s- like something through the S&amp;P 500 index in fixed income. It might be through something like the Barclays US Aggregate Index, where they're establishing a core exposure and holding it strategically, uh, to gain exposure to fixed income over time. Uh, another way that, that we see fixed income investors use indexing though has really been enabled by [00:36:00] the growth of products and the growth of, uh, targeted, uh, sometimes more narrow exposures in fixed income. What we know, uh, from working with investors for decades is that when they think about fixed income, many fixed income investors, uh, have very targeted needs, or targeted goals, or targeted time horizons, or targeted, uh, risk tolerance. And this means that when they build fixed income portfolios, they sometimes show a preference for shorter duration index products or longer duration index products that might tie to their time horizon. Other investors have a clear preference for credit quality or yield, and they want to tailor the portfolio to meet their unique needs from a, a risk or yield or credit quality standpoint. And the good news for investors today is that they have hundreds of fixed income ETFs and index funds available that can [00:37:00] help them gain very targeted exposure, uh, to the sectors of fixed income that are most suitable for them. Molly Mintz: Let's move on from market dynamics to the importance of benchmarks as a measure of performance for the bond markets. How do managers actually align their portfolios to benchmarks like the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index? How does this tangibly and technically work? Jeffrey Johnson: Sure. Well, it all starts with having a very deep and experienced team of investors who have, uh, really refined the approach to bond indexing over now four decades. Uh, this is an area where we've been managing bond index funds now since 1986, so a 40-year anniversary in 2026. Uh, it, it really requires a deep and experienced team. We have more than 50 portfolio managers, traders, and quantitative researchers that make up our bond indexing [00:38:00] team, who specialize in covering and trading, uh, various sectors of the fixed income market. Uh, but it's not just them. Uh, we feel like a bond indexing effort really needs to be supplemented by, uh, very deep risk management expertise and resources, uh, alongside a partnership with foreign exchange traders to the extent that we are operating in global markets. Uh, and then these resources are something that we, uh, have set up globally. So when you're trading in global fixed income markets and indexing global fixed income markets, it's so important to be operating in region and having the right kind of relationships and sources of liquidity locally in European markets, for example, or in Asia-Pacific markets, uh, where we'd also be, uh, looking to track benchmark exposures Molly Mintz: Your research also crystallizes that achieving tight tracking ensures that [00:39:00] bond index funds deliver expected market returns, which can be especially critical when considering bonds typically act as a stabilizer against equity market sell-offs. This is particularly evident right now given market volatility. That takes me to my next question. How do bond fund managers approach risk alignment and cost management in this pursuit of improving investor results? Jeffrey Johnson: Yeah. I talked earlier about how, you know, we kinda think bond indexing is part art, part science, and this is really the scientific part. Uh, again, as I mentioned earlier, there are about 14,000 securities in the Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index. It would be impossible to go out and, and replicate that benchmark. Uh, we have to take an optimized, uh, or sampled approach, uh, to mimicking the exposures of the benchmark. And to do so, uh, we consider dozens of risk factors. We [00:40:00] think of risk factors like credit quality and credit quality breakdowns, uh, the maturity breakdown of the marketplace. We think of different sectors, uh, like corporate bonds, mortgage-backed securities, Treasury bonds, uh, and then we'll even go further and subdivide those sectors to try to build the broadest sample possible across all of those dozens of risk factors, uh, that, uh, help us control the tracking error relative to the benchmark. But there is a limit to how many bonds we really want to hold in that sample. One of the things that our research has found is that when you get close to about 80% or more of the benchmark, you've really found that sweet spot where you've maximized the amount of diversification that you have, uh, that helps minimize, uh, the tracking error relative to the benchmark, while also minimizing the cost and the transaction cost of, uh, holding and transacting in so many bonds.[00:41:00] Uh, so that's kinda how we think about balancing broad diversification, uh, with the limits of where you might start to run into higher transaction costs Molly Mintz: So with complex events becoming more status quo than outliers, how can the very human elements and experiences of expertise and collaboration support managers in assessing risks, controlling costs, and taking action in their investment decisions and benchmark alignment? Jeffrey Johnson: Right. This is the art side of the equation- ... to complement the science side of the equation. Uh, if we were to spend a day, an hour, a week on the desk of our bond index team, you'd see, uh, investment professionals that are responsible for managing passive portfolios or index portfolios. Uh, but what you would observe is anything but passive. They are making many active decisions every day to anticipate, [00:42:00] uh, respond to, uh, market events. Uh, and the thing about bond indexing is that, you know, we always know where the index is today, so as cash flows, uh, emerge on a day in and day out basis, or rebalance activity takes place on a day in or day out basis, we're also thinking about two things. We're thinking about where is the benchmark today, but we're also thinking about where is the benchmark going, uh, at the end of the next month, uh, when it rebalances. We are mindful of, uh, new bonds that are being issued, that are going to enter the benchmark, and thinking about how we can, in certain cases, in a very risk managed way, proactively trade into those exposures. We're also thinking about bonds that are being downgraded and might be falling out of the benchmark, and what does that mean for how m- we might want to very prudently position ourselves ahead of those downgrades. There are also cases where lower quality bonds are upgraded and enter the benchmark, and we can [00:43:00] see that with a little bit of advance notice, uh, before the end of the month. So these, in addition to a very dynamic market and economic environment, are all factors that our indexing team takes into consideration on an hourly and daily basis as they think about where is the benchmark today, but also where is the benchmark going. Molly Mintz: To wrap up our conversation, a quote from your research report. You state that, "For investors, choosing a bond index fund that tracks its benchmark closely helps enable the fund to fulfill its role in a portfolio when that matters most." Jeffrey, I'd love to give you the last word in spelling out what this means to you and why, in Vanguard's view, this is so important. Jeffrey Johnson: Yeah, it really is critical. Uh, there are so many sources of uncertainty in markets that that really is always the case. You know, here in, in, in, in early 2026, you know, we're thinking about the impact of tariffs, we're thinking about [00:44:00] some uncertainty, uh, geopolitically stemming from the Middle East, uh, and there are certainly some, some questions around what that means for the future of interest rates and inflation. And for investors, our starting point is always just get the bonds in the portfolio. Bonds are so important as a source of diversification and ballast relative to riskier parts of the portfolio. And we're so excited about the growth of indexing, uh, for those investors who really have a preference for those kind of targeted or broad-based index exposures, uh, which, uh, increasingly are available at a low cost and have proven through market cycles to, uh, very closely track their benchmarks. Uh, this is- this requires a disciplined approach, it requires a very experienced team to do that, uh, but in a dynamic environment, the right kind of disciplined and experienced team, uh, can really uncover, uh, pockets and opportunities of [00:45:00] value, uh, as part of that process. Molly Mintz: As you've heard from Alex Beery, Matt Chesham, and Jeffrey Johnson, precision in a shifting bond landscape is paramount as market dynamics and investor profiles evolve. This reinforces the clear message of our joint partnership, Partner Perspectives: The Future of Capital Markets, Unlocking Potential Ahead. This is a moment of real transition, an inflection point, and the opportunities ahead won't be unlocked by any single participant acting alone. Infrastructure, policy, data, and market practice will all need to evolve, and that evolution will be shaped by collaboration. That's what makes this partnership between S&amp;P Global and Vanguard so important, bringing together complimentary expertise to offer clarity in a complex world with insights designed not only to inform, but to help market participants channel knowledge into action. [00:46:00] To learn more, read the full collection of research on spglobal.com. I'm your host, Molly Mintz, and this is the Look Forward Podcast. Thanks for listening ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/podcasts/look-forward/ai-energy-paradox-balancing-innovation-with-sustainability</link><description>Artificial intelligence is accelerating demand for data center power at a pace that is reshaping the global energy agenda. In this episode of the Look Forward podcast, host Aries Poon speaks with Tony Lenoir, data center expert at S&amp;amp;P Global, about whether AI growth can coexist with decarbonization goals â&amp;#x80;&amp;#x94; and how hyperscalers are rethinking their energy strategies in response.</description><title>Look Forward | Episode 36: The AI-Energy Paradox: Balancing Innovation with Sustainability</title><pubDate>31 July 2026 15:00:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Aries Poon</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Look Forward 31 July 2026 Look Forward | Episode 36: The AI-Energy Paradox: Balancing Innovation with Sustainability By Aries Poon Artificial intelligence is accelerating demand for data center power at a pace that is reshaping the global energy agenda. In this episode of the Look Forward podcast, host Aries Poon speaks with Tony Lenoir, data center expert at S&amp;P Global, about whether AI growth can coexist with decarbonization goals â and how hyperscalers are rethinking their energy strategies in response. The Look Forward Podcast is powered by the S&amp;P Global Institute. The S&amp;P Global Institute is the center for enterprise-wide thought leadership that brings together expertise from across S&amp;P Global to provide insights on the trends reshaping markets, industries, and the global economy. Look Forward A changing world requires new insights, new analysis, and new approaches. Our clients require expertise and analysis that looks at the big picture. Explore More View Full Transcript Aries Poon: [00:00:00] Hello and welcome to the Look Forward podcast powered by the S&amp;P Global Institute, the platform for enterprise thought leadership across S&amp;P Global. I'm Aries Poon. I'm leading the analysis team for Asia Pacific and Latin America in the Market Intelligence division, and I will be your host today. Markets are moving faster, risks are shifting, and decision makers need foresight. In this podcast, we bring you expert perspectives from across S&amp;P Global on the macroeconomic, market, energy, and technology forces shaping what comes next and helping you navigate uncertainty and look forward with confidence. Today, we are looking at a critical question: Can the rapid rise of AI coexist with sustainability, or is something else driving the energy shift? We'll explore how [00:01:00] hyperscalers are powering AI growth, why renewables remain central, and what this means for energy security and geopolitics. And welcome to our guest, Tony Lenoir, our data center expert from the Energy division. Tony, welcome to the show. Tony Lenoir: Hi, Aries. Thanks. Thank you for having me. Aries Poon: Okay. To start us off, how has the search in AI demand reshaped a broader energy narrative? Tony Lenoir: Sure. Well, first, uh, let me maybe preface my answer by saying that, uh, as analysts, uh, I suppose we try to avoid making overly dramatic statements. But really when it comes to the rise of AI and electricity demand from AI data centers, it's, it's, it's been a veritable paradigm shift for, for the power sector. Um, in the US, electricity demand stayed essentially flat in the last twenty years, uh, leading up to the launch of ChatGPT in [00:02:00] 2022. Uh, and by the way, that in and of itself is rather remarkable when you think about it because in that interval, the US population grew nearly eighteen percent, and the US GDP, uh, more than doubled. So really this speaks to our efficiency gains as a society during that period. But now we've entered a new era, and US electricity consumption is, is anticipated to, to grow at a three percent compound annual growth rate in the next five years. Uh, for perspective, uh, based on the most recent available, um, sustainability report combined, uh, Google, Meta, and Microsoft saw their annual energy consumption jump, uh, a hundred and forty percent between 2020 and 2024. Uh, now it's probably fair to say that the impact of AI compute had yet to be reflected in 2024. In other words, we have not seen anything [00:03:00] yet, if you can believe it. And just for further context on this historical moment, uh, I will just say that, uh, this whole AI sea change really kicked into higher gear as the power sector was experiencing a major push to decarbonize the grid. So really when you think about it, we are living a revolution within a revolution. Aries Poon: So even with policy changes and reduced incentives, why are renewables still seeing strong momentum? Tony Lenoir: Yeah. So for context, it's true that the one big, uh, beautiful bill of July of 2025 accelerated the phaseout of tax credits for renewables. And so when they expire, and indeed if they do expire, uh, that will be a new economic context for renewable developers. I'll, I'll just note that renewable tax credits have expired and been reinstated several [00:04:00] times in the last thirty years Uh, at any rate, in the meantime, corporate renewable procurement remains very strong. Um, based on our tracking of power purchase agreements, uh, the top four US hyperscalers had contracted about 135 gigawatts of clean energy around the world as of, uh, February of this year, and that included about 112 gigawatts of solar and wind capacity. Historically, hyperscalers are, are those very large, uh, global cloud service providers that operate massive data centers. Uh, and the top four include Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft. And these com-companies continue to contract a large amount of, uh, large amounts of clean energy capa-capacity for several reasons. First, they remain, uh, publicly committed to their sustainability targets. Uh, second, renewables have reached maturity, and they are [00:05:00] increasingly cost competitive. And, uh, last but not least, in the context of the global race to achieve AI dominance, speed to power is a major competitive advantage for solar and wind. Aries Poon: As we zoom in to the drivers of energy choices, is it really about sustainability, or are there other priorities driving those choices? Tony Lenoir: Yeah. So as we just saw, uh, speed to power is an important factor. Uh, and frankly, AI, um, AI data centers are going after all the energy they can get Also when, uh, what we are seeing is that in the context of geopolitical tensions, carbon-free technologies, including renewable energy, provide a, a degree of autonomy, uh, and price stability on top of divers- diversifying the, the energy mix. And in the end, regardless of motivation, whether you are pursuing [00:06:00] renewable for energy independence or for sustainability reasons, uh, well, the outcome is the same for sustainability. That is to say, the energy mix gets decarbonized. And, you know, um, there are historical precedents. Uh, well, at least I can think of one. I'm originally from France. Uh, in the 1970s, France famously embarked on a very ambitious plan to produce most of its electricity from nuclear generation. Uh, not for any particular, uh, ideological purposes at the time. Uh, they were simply focusing on decoupling electricity production from oil imports after the, uh, OPEC embargo of 1973. But when all is said and done, today they have one of the most, uh, decarbonized generation fleets in the world. Aries Poon: And, uh, you talk about climate goals, and there has been debate about whether AI expansion is compatible with climate goals or not. [00:07:00] So what does the evidence, uh, suggest so far? Tony Lenoir: Yes. So in, in principle, they are compatible But we believe that if major s- uh, AI stakeholders were forced to choose, uh, well, achieving AI dominance would probably take precedence, uh, because of the broader geopolitical ramifications, uh, in terms of, um, economic competitiveness, military capabilities, and more broadly, global influence. And in fact, uh, some major big tech companies have been tempering expectations around their sustainability targets. Uh, for example, um, in its twenty twenty-five sustainability report, Google described its net zero goal by twenty thirty as a climate moonshot. Uh, it also said that AI-related, um, energy demand was making its future emissions trajectory more difficult to pro- to, to, to [00:08:00] forecast. Um, Microsoft, in its latest, uh, sustainability report, disclosed that, uh, total emissions had increased about twenty-three percent, uh, since twenty twenty due to several factors, including AI expansion. Uh, and I suppose we can assume that the other hyperscalers are facing the same, uh, types of challenges. Aside from the hyperscalers also, uh, data from the twenty twenty-five S&amp;P Global Corporate Sustainability Assessment, uh, shows that thirty-five percent of assessed companies with data center operations do not have, uh, a net zero commitment. Aries Poon: Let's take a look at the energy strategies, uh, evolving beyond renewables for now. Uh, so we're seeing diversification beyond solar and wind. Um, so what other energy sources are also entering the mix? Tony Lenoir: Yes. So all [00:09:00] sources of energy, uh, and preferably clean sources of energy are on the table, including, uh, geothermal and nuclear, for instance. Uh, in fact, the, the rapid rise of AI compute has led, uh, to a resurgence of nuclear energy. I'm sure you've, you've heard about that. Uh, hyperscalers like nuclear, um, for its high energy density, for its reliability, and because it is carbon-free. Uh, in other words, the, the technology allows the, the hyperscalers to reconcile their massive energy needs with their decarbonization objectives. And unlike solar and wind energy, nuclear power is available around the clock. It's not dependent on weather or, um, sunshine Also, when a hyperscaler contracts energy with a nuclear power plant, it can secure large blocks of, of capacity in one fell swoop. Uh, we are [00:10:00] talking about the type of volume that would require multiple deals with ren- uh, renewable energy providers. As of, uh, February of this year, the four hyperscalers we've talked about had about... uh, had contracted about 17 gigawatts of existing and, uh, new nuclear capacity, uh, with, with most of the new capacity to be deployed by small modular reactor companies, uh, such as, uh, X-energy, which went public, um, about six weeks ago. Uh, TerraPower, which was founded by, uh, Bill Gates, and Kairos Power. Um, and, uh, most of that new nuclear energy capacity is expected to come online in the early 2030s. Um, and when you think about it, 17 gigawatts contract- contracted, uh, as of February of this year, that's, that's quite a significant jump because we're talking about, uh, starting from essentially zero just two years ago. Um, that said, for [00:11:00] the, for the hyperscalers, solar and wind continue to overwhelmingly dominate pr- procurement, um, at about 83% of the total, uh, in February, give or take. Aries Poon: Right, the push for clean energy, we've also seen a return to fossil fuels. So what exactly is driving that? Tony Lenoir: Yes. Um, in fact, 2025 was the year of the big gas power comeback. Uh, and again, here we get back to this notion that data center owners and operators are going after all the energy they can get. Uh, have I mentioned that already? I think I have. Uh, joking aside, uh, that is really what's happening a- and I suppose it's the, the reason why decarbonization goals and, and so forth are, are now being questioned. Um, at any rate, uh, to give you some perspective, in 2025, um, orders for gas turbines surged, [00:12:00] uh, 165% year over year, um, to reach, uh, 43 gigawatts, and that was the sector's highest level since 2001. Uh, and really data center owners and, and power producers do like gas fire power because it is reliable, uh, and scalable, and of course, it is dispatchable. And all of this is great, um, in the context of the, the challenges posed by renewable intermittency. Uh, adding to all this, uh, gas power offers the ability to integrate, uh, carbon capture technology, which would make gas power plants a viable component in the overall, um, transition to, to low carbon energy. A-and before we move on, let me just reiterate that this big gas power comeback i-is simply a reflection of, of, of this all-of-the-above approach we've discussed. Access to power is overriding other [00:13:00] consideration, considerations. And really all of these developments in terms of renewables, nuclear, gas fire power, geothermal, well, they're simply a, a reflection of the magnitude of data center power demand Aries Poon: In terms of the drivers shaping these strategies, um, how important are geopolitical and energy security in this calculus? Tony Lenoir: Yeah, that is a great question, uh, and an increasingly important one in the context of, uh, the conflict in the Middle East, trade tensions, et cetera. Um, and frankly, it's important to keep in mind that, um, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the last few months i- is the third major shock to the global energy system in about six years. It follows the COVID-19 disruptions of 2020 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Uh, and in [00:14:00] this environment, we, we argue that priorities have shifted for governments and in corporate boardrooms. Uh, yes, sustainability considerations remain, uh, but energy availability, access, affordability have become top of mind really. And as we've seen, gas-fired power has made a, a strong comeback, and it offers many advantages. But from an energy security perspective, it has its drawbacks really. Uh, it is vulnerable to supply chain disruptions, uh, market fluctuations, and really outright supply and, uh, price shocks as we saw when Russia invaded Ukraine, for instance. Um, technically, even nuclear is not completely immune to geopolitical tensions, um, because, uh, the flow of uranium itself could be disrupted. Um, in 2024, the owners and operators of US reactors [00:15:00] imported over ninety-two percent of the uranium needed to operate the US fleet. Um, that said, the difference is that commercial nuclear reactors resupply every eighteen to twenty-four months on average. Uh, for renewables, it's different, uh, especially when the components and materials going into a renewable power plant are sourced locally, um, because renewable energy can help hedge power consumptions against the volatility of international markets, um, they reduce exposure to fossil fuel inflation, uh, they decouple electricity procurement from foreign energy hubs, uh, and really renewables provide insulation against, um, transport disruptions and geopolitical pressures. In short, they, they provide a certain level of autonomy, of independence for electricity production Aries Poon: In terms of, uh, [00:16:00] energy security challenge, do you think renewables can actually fully solve that energy security challenge? Tony Lenoir: They do not. Um, in, in fact, I suppose it's fair to say that, uh, there really isn't any silver bullet when it comes to the energy security challenge. In the case of renewables, uh, they do offer undeniable security advantage- advantages, as we saw, um, but that's only when the power plants are fully stood up. In their development phase, they are exposed to supply chain risks, right? For example, solar, uh, solar vo- uh, uh, photovoltaics and, and battery supply chains are heavily concentrated in China. Yet China really dominates those sectors and, um, you know, in the last few years, the Chinese government has also deployed export restrictions on some raw materials as a tool of geopolitical pressure. Uh, for instance, [00:17:00] this includes the rare earth that go into magnets, uh, and we know that magnets are a core component of electric, uh, generators Um, this is why the, the past two US administrations have put, um, policies in place to build up the US solar and, um, battery, um, manufacturing base, uh, including by imposing import restrictions on materials coming f- uh, from what the US government deems, uh, foreign entities of concern Aries Poon: What trends are we seeing in actual energy used by data centers? Tony Lenoir: Yeah, data center energy consumption is rising f- at break net sp- breakneck speed, uh, as we saw. Um, i- if we zoom in on hyperscalers specifically, uh, they consumed, uh, an estimated, uh, fifty-seven terawatt-hours of electricity globally in twenty, uh, twenty. Uh, that is based on the, a, a modeled y- [00:18:00] uh, low utilization rate for data centers. But fast-forward to twenty twenty-five, and that figure had been multiplied by three to reach, uh, a hundred and seventy-five terawatt-hours. And looking forward to twenty thirty, hyperscalers around the world are expected to consume more than, uh, four hundred and thirty terawatt-hours by the end of the decade. Uh, uh, those are mind-boggling figures. Uh, a- and they truly illustrate the paradigm shift, uh, that we discussed at the beginning of our chat. Now, um, data collected in the twenty twenty-five S&amp;P Global Corporate Sustainability Assessment, uh, shows that the, uh, assessed data centers... Uh, sorry, data centers, uh, sourced, uh, sixty-seven percent of their energy from renewable sources in twenty twenty-five. Uh, and that, that, that was up sharply from fifty-two percent in twenty twenty-two. But as we've seen, the, the energy demand [00:19:00] traject- trajectory is so steep that increasingly other technologies are relied upon to meet those needs Aries Poon: So here is my last question for you. Um, looking forward, um, what would be the likely energy mix powering AI over the next decade? Tony Lenoir: Well, I, I would argue that, uh, all, all the factors we discussed today make for a, a very fluid picture or the, the proverbial moving target, if you will. Um, in the short to medium term, uh, the, the all-of-the-above strategy, strategy definitely is in play. And, and this could keep the, the current energy mix pretty stable. A-and by the way, uh, natural gas continues to play a significant role in the energy, um, in the current energy mix. But the truth is that at the moment, no single solution meets all needs in terms of access, in terms of [00:20:00] costs or reliability, or in terms of sustainability. N-nuclear does look good on paper, um, but developing new nuclear capacity takes time. Uh, the technology is very complex and, and because of that, historically it has faced two significant, uh, bottlenecks. Uh, long permitting processes, um, and high capital intensity, uh, uh, which makes financing, uh, new nuclear projects a, a challenge. Uh, in the long run, decarbonization of the energy mix via the deployment of renewables remains on the table. And as we've seen, the need for security and contingency planning ha-has bolstered the case for renewables. And, and from that point of view, uh, the security argument, whether you call it autonomy or independence, really overtakes talks of decarbonization and sustainability. And, and come to think of it, it's [00:21:00] probably a, an easier sell politically as well. I mean, historically, we've seen that The population can be divided on decarbonization matters. But I think that everyone would agree that keeping our electricity, our modern economy going i- is critical, and that, uh, we should go with the energy mix that ensures that that remains the case. And it turns out that renewables offer a great profile to achieve just that. And, and as we've seen, in the end, well, it doesn't, it doesn't, uh, really matter what the arguments for deploying renewables really are. Ultimately, the result is the same from a sustainability point of view. Aries Poon: Thanks, Tony, for your insights. And the takeaway today is clear. AI isn't just a technology story. It is also reshaping global energy systems. And while sustainability remains part of the narrative, energy security and [00:22:00] reliability are now just as central to how the future is being built. If you would like to dive deeper into our research and our blog posts, visit spglobal.com and explore our Look Forward Council resources. You can also connect with Tony on LinkedIn. Thank you so much for listening to the Look Forward podcast. If you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe to Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or YouTube, and we'll see you next time ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/podcasts/look-forward/pressure-points-liquidity-complexity-and-the-rise-of-private-credit</link><description>Private credit has grown from a post-financial-crisis gap-filler into a roughly $2 trillion market â&amp;#x80;&amp;#x94; and with investor redemptions and AI disruption fears making headlines, it&amp;apos;s facing fresh scrutiny. Host Molly Mintz is joined by S&amp;amp;P Global Ratings&amp;apos; Matthew Mitchell, Managing Director for Structured Finance, and Evan Gunter, Managing Director and Head of Private Markets Research, to unpack where the real pressure points lie.</description><title>Look Forward | Episode 37: Pressure Points: Liquidity, Complexity, and the Rise of Private Credit</title><pubDate>17 August 2026 15:00:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Molly Mintz</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Look Forward 17 August 2026 Look Forward | Episode 37: Pressure Points: Liquidity, Complexity, and the Rise of Private Credit By Molly Mintz Private credit has grown from a post-financial-crisis gap-filler into a roughly $2 trillion market â and with investor redemptions and AI disruption fears making headlines, it's facing fresh scrutiny. Host Molly Mintz is joined by S&amp;P Global Ratings' Matthew Mitchell, Managing Director for Structured Finance, and Evan Gunter, Managing Director and Head of Private Markets Research, to unpack where the real pressure points lie. The Look Forward Podcast is powered by the S&amp;P Global Institute. The S&amp;P Global Institute is the center for enterprise-wide thought leadership that brings together expertise from across S&amp;P Global to provide insights on the trends reshaping markets, industries, and the global economy. Look Forward A changing world requires new insights, new analysis, and new approaches. Our clients require expertise and analysis that looks at the big picture. Explore More View Full Transcript Molly Mintz: [00:00:00] Hello, and welcome to the Look Forward podcast, powered by the S&amp;P Global Institute, the platform for enterprise thought leadership across S&amp;P Global. I'm Molly Mintz, Lead Strategist at S&amp;P Global Ratings, and I'll be your host today. Markets are moving faster, risks are shifting, and decision-makers need foresight. In this podcast, we bring you expert perspectives from across S&amp;P Global on the macroeconomic, market, energy, and technology forces shaping what comes next, helping you navigate uncertainty and look forward with confidence. Recent investor redemptions and the potential for AI disruption have put private credit under fresh scrutiny. As private markets expand and new capital enters the financing ecosystem, greater scale and growing [00:01:00] interconnections with public markets have raised questions about whether systemic risks could emerge. On this episode of the Look Forward podcast, powered by the S&amp;P Global Institute, I'm joined by two colleagues from S&amp;P Global Ratings, Matthew Mitchell, Managing Director for Structured Finance, and Evan Gunter, Managing Director and Head of Private Markets Research. Today, we're delving into their recent insights on the pressure points to watch in the market for potential systemic risk from private credit. Matt, Evan, thanks so much for joining the podcast today. Matthew Mitchell: Thanks, Molly. Great to be here. Evan Gunter: Molly, thanks for hosting us. So good to see you again. Molly Mintz: My first question is about the rise of private credit. So the rise of private credit has added to the dynamic nature and the depth of capital markets and provided additional sources of financing to borrowers, evolving over the past two decades [00:02:00] of banking disintermediation into an advanced ecosystem of alternative asset managers and the investment vehicles that they manage. Now, we've seen private credit recently experience a shift in perception from being an enviable asset class to enduring heightened scrutiny. Matt, I'm looking to you to start and set the stage. How did we get here, and what is driving this current state of play? Matthew Mitchell: Sure. So the initial growth phase of private credit really followed the global financial crisis, where banks significantly curtailed their lending, leaving a gap for many mid-market borrowers. Uh, and that's where private le- pr- private credit lenders really stepped in to, to fill that void. So they stepped in via direct lending. The market has since really experienced dramatic growth. Uh, right now in the direct lending space, some participants estimate that it's at about $2 trillion, so really mirroring that now of the broadly syndicated loan space. Uh, and naturally, as markets grow in scale [00:03:00] and sophistication, there is going to be increased concern about their potential influence on the broader financial system Uh, we are also seeing a changing landscape though with respect to the originations now of many private credit lenders. So some of the initial draw was to direct lending and the yield pickup that you could get, but now with more competition, we've seen spread compression in that space and a look for managers to really diversify, uh, and grow and diversify their AUM into other sectors. And I think one of the fastest-growing segments has been in the asset-based finance space, uh, where the collateral as well as deal structure can provide significant protection to lenders. Uh, and when I talk about asset-based finance, it's really a very, very diverse sector. It can include things such as equipment finance, so think airlines, think shipping. Uh, you can think of royalty streams such as music rights, residential and commercial real estate, and really recently gathering all the headlines is [00:04:00] digital infrastructure. And it's not just the data centers themselves, but also their power supplies, the, you know, equipment in the racks, cooling, uh, and GPU leases as well, uh, really taking off within probably the past 12 to 24 months in the private credit space and the types of queries that we're getting. Uh, now I've touched on half the growth story, looking at the assets. Uh, the other half of the equation though needs to be where is this capital coming from? Uh, and we do see a mix of institutional investors, uh, you know, sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, some high net worth individuals and other retail money. Uh, but one of the key growth, growth drivers here has been insurance companies and just the amount of capital that's been flowing into retirement annuities. This has resulted in innovative fundraising structures by these funds and by the private credit managers. Uh, examples like rated note feeders, collateralized fund obligations, uh, and the fund structures as well now evolving to match the amortization [00:05:00] profile of these longer-dated liabilities. Molly Mintz: Matt, thank you. That's a perfect transition to take a closer look at what's happening with business development companies, a different investment vehicle that are really capturing market attention right now. Evan, this is a question for you. S&amp;P Global rates over 15 BDCs with total assets of approximately $325 billion at the end of last year, providing us with visibility into BDCs that cover around 55% of total BDC AUM. Given this breadth of perspective, what is S&amp;P Global Rating's view of these investment vehicles' credit and redemption risks at this time? Evan Gunter: Molly, thanks for having us here. Um, this is a good question, and it's one that is being asked frequently throughout the market. With AI advancement, what kind of potential disruption does that [00:06:00] have for the software sector? And, uh, if related to that, what kind of impact does it have on the-- what kind of impact does it have on BDCs? We don't believe that the credit impact or the redemption risk impact is a near-term risk, uh, for the software companies or for the BDCs. Uh, among software companies for which we have a, a credit opinion through our credit estimates, so these are, uh, companies whose loans are held by mid-market CLOs. We see recent credit quality has shown resilience. There's been more upgrades than downgrades of credit estimates, and the default rate has been coming down over the last year. Within this strong performance, software is one of the strongest performing sectors within credit estimates. When we think about the potential impact of AI and AI disruption, we don't expect this to be [00:07:00] uniform. Uh, we expect the impact to be more differentiated. Uh, you can kinda think about that as there's gonna be some winners and some losers. Those with a wider moat, uh, those companies we would expect to be more resilient, are likely those that have proprietary data, embedded customer relationships, or ones that offer more mission-critical products And on the other side, those that are more vulnerable to the potential for AI disruption are those that likely have more narrow moats. And, but also the credit risk for these is not immediate. It's more of an eventual impact to the enterprise valuations, and this could add to the refinancing challenges down the line, uh, such as in twenty-twenty eight when maturities rise, uh, those twenty-twenty eight maturities are kind of-- There was a lot of debt that was issued right after COVID, uh, much of which is coming due in twenty-twenty eight.[00:08:00] Even though we expect the impact of AI disruption will be differentiated, investors took-- Well, investors took a more sell first, ask questions later approach earlier this year. In broadly syndicated loans, we saw software prices drop from about ninety-four in January down to below eighty-eight by March, and those prices really haven't recovered yet. Meanwhile, the publicly traded BDCs are trading at near twenty-- were trading at near twenty percent discounts. But the private, the non-traded BDCs did not have such a discount. They weren't marked down, and we saw a surge of redemption requests coming from investors. Now, typically, a non-traded BDC limits redemptions to five percent of its net asset value. This is a way for them to protect the existing investors and prevent forced selling. [00:09:00] Where the non-traded BDCs limited their outflows to five percent, they were functioning as they were intended, but the headlines of funds limiting redemptions added to investor concerns So our rating analysts who cover the BDC sector recently did a stress test. It was a very, uh-- It was a pretty harsh assumption in their stress test where they were assuming no inflows for the perpetual non-traded BDCs and no, uh, level two asset sales. And the stress test was to see, uh, how is their liquidity if they're facing continued elevated redemptions. So in the stress test, even with no inflows, uh, the rated perpetual non-traded BDCs showed sufficient liquidity to withstand four quarters or more of these elevated outflows.[00:10:00] The software sector is facing potential disruption from AI, and this is adding to the pressure on BDCs. But we don't view either of these cases, the potential disruption for AI or, uh, the potential, uh, for elevated redemptions, uh, to be a near-term risk. Credit quality in software is holding up, as is the liquidity among the rated BDCs. Molly Mintz: So from a macro credit perspective, given the rapid change in this market and its recent challenges, S&amp;P Global Ratings' latest credit conditions research noted that rising stress in private credit is a top risk to watch due to its potential to impair liquidity, erode investor confidence, and add to market volatility, primarily in North America, but with a possible spillover to other regions. Bringing both of you into the conversation now, what [00:11:00] are the pressure points in private credit that could potentially have systemic implications? Evan Gunter: So Matt and I worked together on a research report earlier this year that looked at pressure points in private credit. And one of the things that we were looking at is that the private credit market is changing as it's growing, and some of these changes could put more pressure on the system. First of all, a pressure point is liquidity. Private credit assets are by and large gonna be illiquid buy-and-hold assets. A fund manager must match the timing of their liabilities against this largely illiquid asset For a fund structure with locked-in capital, it's easier to plan for the timing of liabilities, but a semi-liquid fund structure, uh, such as those non-traded BDCs or interval, or interval funds, it's harder to predict when the [00:12:00] investor will demand a return of capital. But as the market's been changing, semi-liquid funds have seen the most growth in recent years. Five years ago, publicly traded vehicles accounted for the majority of BDCs, but now they've been far surpassed by the non-traded BDCs. So this rise of semi-liquid vehicles adds one potential pressure point Another potential pressure point is the complexity. Uh, private credit is not just mid-market corporate direct lending anymore. As Matt was mentioning, there's lending that's going to large corporates, digital infrastructure, as well as vehicles such as asset-based finance and SRTs. It's a market that's growing in diversity and complexity. One sign of this, uh, is among recent fund launches, specialty finance is gaining as a strategy with more new fund launches, [00:13:00] uh, growing as a share relative to direct lending. Another potential pressure point is the interconnections. As the market is growing, we're also seeing it's increasingly connected to banks and insurers, which are some of the more systemically important players in the market. Among banks, non-bank financial institution lending has been their fastest growth area, and among insurers, private credit has been a growth area for their asset holdings, especially for life insurers, where, uh, in life insurers, we estimate that about 10% of North American life insurers have bond holdings that are privately rated and privately placed Matthew Mitchell: Another, uh, another area Evan Gunter: is concentration is a potential pressure point. What we've seen with the investor concerns for software is a good reminder about the importance of [00:14:00] diversification. BDCs show a concentration in software that accounts for about twenty percent of their loan assets, and mid-market CLOs have about a sixteen percent concentration. Diversification is a key pillar of risk management, and so we'd expect that rising concentration in non-diversified risks would further add to the pressure within the system Matthew Mitchell: And maybe I'll dive in with some specific examples, uh, speaking to what Evans talked about with respect to the complexity and interconnectedness aspect. So on the complexity side of things, as I mentioned at the start and as Evans alluded to, we have seen kind of material growth within the digital infrastructure and asset-based finance or ABF space. Uh, this can add complexity relative to direct lending because it requires an assessment of risk related to construction, technology, some esoteric assets, uh, alongside additional legal and structural mechanics, uh, and increased operational risks. [00:15:00] Uh, furthermore, with some of the new debt structures that we're seeing now, so I mentioned, uh, you know, rated note feeders, collateralized fund obligations at the fund level. Looking down to the underlying asset level, you've got different combinations of backed leverage, structured equity, uh, and these can really increase the structural and contractual complexities that are at play. On the interconnectedness side of things, the common one that comes up right now is significant risk transfers or SRTs. This is getting a lot of attention by regulators, uh, in particular given the relatively small number of private credit funds that comprise some of the largest investors in this market. Uh, some of the risks that have been identified here include potential hidden leverage in the financial system. And what that's speaking to is if banks are providing funding, so fund finance facilities, repo facilities to these lenders, have you actually truly transferred the risk of those portfolios outside of the financial system? Uh, and also just from a capital perspective, banks' [00:16:00] reliance on these private capital providers, uh, given that it's not a permanent source of capital for these banks. Uh, so you know, banks need to be conscious of the ability to go out and issue new SRTs to continue their originations and just from a capital perspective. But we have seen mitigants to these risks. For instance, for banks, they typically are staggering their maturity profiles such that there's not kind of a refinancing wave, uh, that's needed to really mitigate that, that potential capital impact if, for whatever reason, they can't access the SRT markets and these private capital lenders aren't available. Molly Mintz: But notably, these pressure points haven't imploded. Your view is that current stresses in private credit are unlikely to pose a risk that would materially disrupt the financial system or the broader economy. So my bigger question is: what would it take for systemic risk to materialize in private credit? Evan Gunter: Thanks, Molly. So as you're kind of mentioning there [00:17:00] in your question, a systemic risk is one where the risk of disruption of financial services has serious negative consequences for the real economy. We get the question, does private credit pose a systemic risk? And when we started thinking about it, uh, we came to the approach that systemic risk is not a singular risk. It consists of three separate components. The first component is system-wide risk. So what are some of the risks that are s- across the entire system? In this case, we're looking at some of those things that are inherent to private credit, including the limited liquidity, uh, the limits to transparency, and also, as Matt was describing, kind of like a new system-wide risk that's sort of on the rise is this rising complexity, uh, especially as the market is extending, uh, to asset-based finance, digital infrastructure, uh, and SRTs. The [00:18:00] second component is the contagion risk. How could the failure of one entity pose risks to another in the system? Some of the factors that can heighten contagion risk include the interconnection. So like Matt was describing, uh, banks' funding and the transfer of risks within the private credit system. Uh, these dependencies across institutions for funding or the shared exposures is one potential factor that can affect contagion. Uh, another factor for contagion to look at is leverage. Leverage amplifies risk, and as you have new vehicles in the market, uh, it can add new leverage or new layers of leverage. Uh, separately, uh, always with contagion risk, uh, there's concentrations. Are there concentrations of non-diversified risks that are pooling within the system? That's one of the factors to consider, uh, for [00:19:00] whether there's contagion, uh, contagion risk within a system. The third component is systemic importance. How critical is the entity to the system itself? For an institution, uh, there's the risk that a failure or loss of a specific party, like for instance a bank, an insurer, or an investor, could trigger a loss of economic value or confidence in the broader financial system. So when we look at these exposures, we think, okay, is this exposure held by an entity that's systemically important? And then the other key systemic importance is what is the exposure level? So it's not just is this party holding a risky asset, but how exposed are they to a risky asset? And is the size of the investment, uh, particularly as held by a systemically important institution, is that exposure large enough that a [00:20:00] loss would be material? So taken together, this system-wide risk, contagion risk, and systemic importance are the factors to evaluate and to determine if private credit poses a systemic risk. Matthew Mitchell: And maybe jumping further into Evan's comments on concentration. So with increased concentration has the potential for increased correlation of performance as well. Uh, that's not only necessarily default risk, but also market value risk. A lot of the financing structures that we've seen in place aren't necessarily just credit-dependent, but they could have triggers related to the actual mark-to-market values. Uh, and if pricing models were to change, we question whether that potentially means an impact across any asset, uh, in particular those level three assets that may be hard to value that are illiquid in the private credit space. Uh, and also the, the other thing that we think about is not just default risk, but in going back to the earlier comments of, well, where is the [00:21:00] capital coming from that's fueled this growth in private credit? It's from prudentially regulated institutions, so primarily insurance companies. And so it's not just about default, but what is the capital impact upon downgrade? And so thinking about credit stability is also a big part of what we've been doing, and some of the sensitivity and stability tests and, and commentaries that Evan's, uh, already discussed look at what would the capital impact be if you were to have wide-widespread credit stress within these private credit portfolios. And right now, we do believe that there is a sufficient capital buffer that we wouldn't be expecting a material ratings impact even under a, you know, fairly conservative stress scenario. Molly Mintz: Now we're going to bring out our crystal ball. It wouldn't be the Look Forward podcast if we didn't look ahead. The interplay between public and private markets, the potential risks that could arise from the rapid growth and interconnectedness of these markets, and the complexity of exposure between traditional financial market [00:22:00] institutions and private market players, all of these are clearly intensifying. So looking forward, how do you both anticipate that this nexus will evolve, and likewise, the potential for systemic risk over time? Evan Gunter: Thanks, Molly. So when I look into my crystal ball for the future of markets, one thing that it's clearly pointing to is that this private market, private credit in particular, is a market that's growing and it's evolving, and the investor base for it is expanding. While liquidity and transparency are key features of the private credit market, with this expanding investor base, there are new investors coming into the market that are putting new demands, uh, for liquidity, new demands for more sources of transparency. Like Matt was just mentioning, uh, looking into where the capital is coming from, uh, and more insurers coming into this market.[00:23:00] That's creating new demands out there, uh, for liquidity as well as for transparency and reporting. For liquidity, there's new fund structures. Uh, I mentioned the growth of semi-liquid structures. Uh, also, uh, there's initiatives to start secondary market for trading of private credit assets. Uh, so that'll be another source of liquidity at the asset level There's also the growth of credit secondaries as LPs that have been holding onto funds in a slowing exit environment, uh, or GPs looking for ways to unlock liquidity. For transparency, the stress that private credit has come under so far this year is adding to more demand from investors and regulators for more standardized information on asset quality and performance. In an opaque market, a question on confidence from investors can spread quickly. [00:24:00] Already we're starting to see signs of enhanced and more standardized reporting coming to market. Like for instance, we've seen U.S. banks have started providing more disclosures on private credit and private equity exposures. Insurers are updating how they classify private assets with guidance from the NAIC. And LPs are increasingly looking for more standardized reporting of performance and assets that are included, uh, from the GPs. As the market matures, I expect investors will likely coalesce around new standardizations for tracking, uh, and for the reporting and analyzing of private credit. Matthew Mitchell: And from my perspective, where we've seen a lot of the headlines related to private credit today are in the direct lending space, and naturally we do view those as riskier credits. Those are typically in the single B to triple C rating category, uh, where we believe that the likelihood of default is, you know, is a material risk. Where we've [00:25:00] seen the shift in capital flows within private markets is more now into the asset-based finance space or multi-credit strategy funds. And a lot of the times these are being structured, and I'm probably biased because I have the structured finance background, but these investments are being structured to an investment-grade rating level. So you're seeing r- a, a fundamental shift in the risk profile that's being taken, uh, to really more stable, predictable cash flows that are matching that of who ultimately the end LPs are now in the, in these vehicles. Molly Mintz: Matt, Evan, I certainly learned so much from this conversation. Thank you both so much for joining the podcast and sharing your insights. Matthew Mitchell: Thanks, Molly. Evan Gunter: Thanks for having us, Molly. Molly Mintz: To our listeners, thank you for listening to the Look Forward podcast, powered by the S&amp;P Global Institute. To access the research and insights discussed, please visit spglobal.com/ratings/private markets. And to learn more about the S&amp;P Global [00:26:00] Institute, please visit spglobal.com. I'm your host, Molly Mintz, and I'm looking forward to accelerating essential intelligence together next time. ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/101426-eu-carbon-pricing-must-stay-affordable-or-system-fails-says-vitol-ceo</link><description>Europe&amp;apos;s carbon pricing framework is under mounting pressure to balance decarbonization ambitions with energy affordability, as geopolitical shocks to gas supply and rising consumer costs test the political durability of the EU Emissions Trading System, Russell Hardy, CEO of Global commodity trader Vitol, said Oct. 14. Speaking at the Carbon Forward conference in London, Hardy warned that carbon</description><title>EU carbon pricing must stay affordable or system fails, says Vitol CEO</title><pubDate>14 October 2026 12:57:08 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Eklavya Gupte</name><name>Irina Breilean</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Natural Gas, LNG, Emissions, Carbon October 14, 2026 EU carbon pricing must stay affordable or system fails, says Vitol CEO By Eklavya Gupte and Irina Breilean Editor: Adithya Ram Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Hardy says EU ETS prices in a 'sweet spot', calls for policy stability Cold winter could raise TTF gas, carbon prices simultaneously EUAs have been very volatile in 2026 amid policy backlash Europe's carbon pricing framework is under mounting pressure to balance decarbonization ambitions with energy affordability, as geopolitical shocks to gas supply and rising consumer costs test the political durability of the EU Emissions Trading System, Russell Hardy, CEO of Global commodity trader Vitol, said Oct. 14. Speaking at the Carbon Forward conference in London, Hardy warned that carbon policy must be kept deliberately contained against a backdrop of war and high energy prices, or risk fracturing under pressure from competing political forces. "Carbon policy needs to keep carbon pricing relatively in check because there's too much danger from different political factions that ultimately, the system will break if it becomes unaffordable," Hardy said. "We do need to keep in balance so that energy can remain affordable to the consumer, at the same time, we can drive some behavioral change." He said the EU ETS remains the cornerstone of European climate policy but warned that policy stability is the single most important factor underpinning investment in low-carbon technologies, while carbon prices must stay within a range that households and industry can absorb or risk a political backlash that could unravel the system entirely. "Ultimately, stability of policy is critical because everything is government policy-driven here. It's not always a natural marketplace. It's a marketplace that's been created," Hardy said. "We'd all like stability of government policy, but I'm not sure that that's necessarily going to come anytime soon." Gas vulnerability Those pressures are being sharpened by a deteriorating gas supply picture heading into winter, according to Hardy. Supply disruptions stemming from the conflict in the Middle East have compounded the structural loss of Russian pipeline gas following the Nord Stream sabotage in 2022, tightening the market at a particularly sensitive moment. "The supply and demand have changed on top of the Russian change from 2022," Hardy said, warning that Europe's regas buildout, while helpful, cannot fully insulate the continent from weather-driven demand spikes. Temperature, Hardy said, will be the decisive variable this season. On a cold day in the UK, approximately 50% of gas consumption flows into domestic boilers, leaving European consumers acutely exposed to a sustained cold spell. "The gas market can cope provided the weather trends towards the warmer end of the spectrum," Hardy said. "And if it trends towards the colder end of the spectrum, there will inevitably be further price rises and difficulties with supplies." European gas prices have surged in recent weeks amid threats to, and actual attacks on, shipping in the Middle East. Reduced LNG exports from the Persian Gulf have tightened European supply and lifted purchase prices, while growing buying activity from Asia and low storage levels in some European countries have added further upward pressure. Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, assessed the month-ahead Dutch TTF gas price at â¬87.50/megawatt-hour Oct. 12, the highest since December 2022. "Europe, as a developed continent, can afford to pay. I mean, it doesn't feel like we can afford to pay. But in the end, we can afford to pay," he said. "And Bangladesh and other places will suffer the consequences of us buying gas at prices that they can't afford." The gas supply picture has direct implications for carbon policy, according to Hardy. With fossil fuels still accounting for 68% of EU primary energy consumption, down from 78% in 2005, Hardy said the scale of what has already been achieved is frequently underestimated, but so is the distance still to travel. A cold winter that drives up gas consumption risks pushing carbon costs higher at the same time, putting pressure on households and industry from both directions. "People have to remember how significant the change is and how long transition is going to take," he said. Policy balance Against that backdrop, Hardy said EU carbon prices are currently operating within a workable range, but that maintaining it requires active management. "I think we're in a sweet spot at the moment that is ultimately driving behavior, which is what it's there for," he said. "But at the same time, it's still in balance with the costs that consumers, domestic consumers, and industry have to bear, which clearly is at the limit of being acceptable and competitive." EU Allowance prices have been volatile this year, ranging from around â¬60/mt to â¬90/mt, amid political pressure on the carbon market and higher energy prices driven by the Middle East conflict. Platts assessed EU Allowances for December 2026 at â¬87.94/mt CO2 equivalent Oct. 13. Hardy pointed to the structural challenge facing EU policymakers: emissions markets have a historical tendency to collapse toward zero or spiral toward infinity, and the EU's backloading tools and market stability mechanisms exist precisely to prevent either extreme. He said mechanisms such as Article 6 of the Paris Agreement serve a dual purpose, providing a pricing relief valve while also creating a bridge to international carbon markets beyond Europe's borders. The stakes extend well beyond Europe. The continent accounts for just 6.5% of global emissions, and Hardy argued that reducing that share in isolation would be insufficient without drawing other major emitters into credible frameworks. "If we go from 6.5% to 3%, that's great. But there's a whole community out there that we need to bring with us," he said. He also offered a pointed critique of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, describing its rollout as poorly timed relative to industrial offshoring. "The CBAM has now arrived to rescue industry after industry left," Hardy said, calling the overall policy landscape "a bit disjointed." The European Commission moved to address industrial competitiveness concerns in a July 17 legislative package that slowed the pace of emissions cuts required beyond 2030, added â¬6 billion in free allowances for manufacturers, established a â¬100 billion Industrial Decarbonisation Bank, and introduced controlled access to carbon removals and international credits. The reforms reflect sustained political pressure from member states and industry groups who argue the current framework risks accelerating the offshoring of carbon-intensive production rather than cutting global emissions. The package has drawn mixed reactions. Environmental groups have warned that slowing the linear reduction factor beyond 2030 risks undermining the long-term credibility of the cap-and-trade system, while industry bodies have broadly welcomed the free allowance extension as a necessary bridge during a period of elevated energy costs and weak European industrial output. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/natural-gas/101426-ec-releases-proposal-to-delay-methane-import-requirements-by-one-year</link><description>The European Commission has released a proposal Oct. 14 to delay importer requirements under the EU&amp;apos;s landmark methane emissions regulation by one year. The proposal follows recent comments from EC President Ursula von der Leyen and Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen that the commission would make such a move amid sustained market turmoil linked to the Middle East war. &amp;quot;Europe&amp;apos;s ambition in the</description><title>EC releases proposal to delay methane import requirements by one year</title><pubDate>14 October 2026 14:13:49 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Matt Hoisch</name></author><content><![CDATA[ LNG, Energy Transition, Natural Gas, Crude Oil, Coal, Emissions October 14, 2026 EC releases proposal to delay methane import requirements by one year By Matt Hoisch Editor: Arushi Jain Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Also proposes to postpone some domestic requirements Proposal now heads to parliament, council Comes as LNG prices hit multiyear highs The European Commission has released a proposal Oct. 14 to delay importer requirements under the EU's landmark methane emissions regulation by one year. The proposal follows recent comments from EC President Ursula von der Leyen and Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen that the commission would make such a move amid sustained market turmoil linked to the Middle East war. "Europe's ambition in the fight against climate change remains unflinching," Jorgensen said in an Oct. 14 statement. "But as we approach a difficult winter in terms of energy prices, we need to be flexible and pragmatic in the implementation of our rules. The priority now is to shield European citizens from the price volatility we are facing, and avoid any potential additional risk to energy supplies at a time of global constraints." Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, assessed the DES Northwest Europe LNG marker at $27.98/million British thermal units on Oct. 13. The benchmark is at its highest since December 2022. Proposal components Under the official text of the EC proposal, importers of oil, natural gas and coal into the EU would have to show that imports under new contracts meet the same methane monitoring, reporting and verification requirements as EU producers from 2028, rather than 2027, as mandated under the current law. Reporting for 2028 imports under the proposal would be required by May 31, 2029, and would continue annually thereafter. The EC proposal also calls for a delay to methane intensity reporting requirements for both EU producers and importers. Under the proposal, this reporting would only be required to start from Aug. 5, 2029, for production from the previous year. The current law mandates reporting from Aug. 5, 2028. Both sets of revised requirements would continue to apply only to contracts concluded or renewed on or after Aug. 4, 2024, as in the current law. The EC also proposed delaying reporting requirements for a later stage of the methane law, when importers and EU producers will have to comply with methane intensity limits that have yet to be set. The EC, however, did not propose narrowing the scope of those requirements. Under the proposal, importers and EU producers of oil, gas and coal would have to demonstrate their volumes' methane intensities come in below the intensity limit from Aug. 5, 2031, for the previous calendar year. The current law calls for reporting to start by Aug. 5, 2030. However, even though the reporting deadline would be later, the EC proposal still calls for the intensity limit to apply to supply contracts concluded or renewed after Aug. 5, 2030. So, even though the reporting would be delayed, it would still cover the same activities as the current law. The proposal will now head to the European Parliament and Council. "Considering the deadline [for methane law obligations] is approaching, it is likely there will be a request to use the urgency procedure [to consider the EC proposal], but I cannot tell yet if and when that would be," an EU Parliament spokesperson told Platts Oct. 14. An EU Council spokesperson did not immediately reply to a request for comment from Platts on when the Council expects to consider the proposal. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/blog/energy-transition/101426-et-highlights-japan-decarbonization-brazil-ppa-ai-power-india-cop-31</link><description>Energy transition highlights: Our editors and analysts bring you the biggest stories from the industry this week, from renewables to storage to carbon prices.</description><title>ET Highlights: Japanâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99;s decarbonization amid energy security concerns, Brazilâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99;s self-generation PPAs, AI-led power boomâ&amp;#x80;&amp;#x99;s net-zero stress</title><pubDate>13 October 2026 20:05:00 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Staff </name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Renewables, Emissions, Carbon October 14, 2026 ET Highlights: Japanâs decarbonization amid energy security concerns, Brazilâs self-generation PPAs, AI-led power boomâs net-zero stress Energy Transition Highlights: Our editors and analysts bring together the biggest stories in the industry this week, from renewables to storage to carbon prices. Top story Japan's METI, Innovation for Cool Earth Forum stress on decarbonization Japan's government and industry are advancing the Green Transformation (GX) strategy to strengthen energy security and decarbonization amid geopolitical uncertainties. Discussions at the 13th Annual Meeting of the Innovation for Cool Earth Forum in Tokyo, set forth faster electrification, scientific innovation and comprehensive value chains as the need of the hour for GX. The Japanese government is now advancing the energy transition strategy with the aim of simultaneously achieving a stable energy supply, economic growth and decarbonization, according to Mami Fukuchi, deputy director-general for innovation policy, innovation and environment policy bureau, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. As uncertainties surrounding energy continue to grow, the country is promoting public and private sector investment and providing seamless support from the development of innovative technologies through their deployment in society, Fukuchi added. Nobuo Tanaka, chair of the ICEF Steering Committee, said countries' energy pursuits are divided between "petro-states" and "electro-states" amid new geopolitics in the energy trade. In such a scenario, Japan and Korea, which depend heavily on oil and gas imports, face a challenge and must work together on a green transition pathway closely aligned with decarbonization. Benchmark of the Week $29.64 mtCO2e Platts-assessed J-credit Renewable Energy (Electricity) on Oct. 9 Explore Platts Energy Transition Price Assessments Editor's picks: Free and premium content SPGlobal.com/energy Japan eyes commercial phase for carbon capture with help of policy, funding Japan's carbon recycling strategy is shifting to commercialization as government funding and policy support help companies move pilot projects toward deployment. At the 8th International Conference on Carbon Recycling 2026 in Tokyo, speakers said progress will depend on building a full carbon capture and utilization ecosystem and driving down costs. Not only should renewable energy and energy conservation be expanded, but carbon recycling and CCS should also be adopted, according to Dr Yoshihiko Ohishi, director, circular economy department at New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization. INTERVIEW: Brazil self-generation PPAs adapt to tighter rules, growing curtailment risks Brazilian self-production power purchase agreements have had to adapt to sweeping regulatory changes that have effectively limited new deals for large consumers, creating uncertainty after years of rapid growth. But even so, these arrangements -- which already account for over one-fifth of the country's electricity generation -- are expected to continue expanding, according to Mario Menel, president of the Brazilian Association of Investors in Self-Production of Energy, or Abiape. "Self-generation has been the main driver of the expansion of the power system," Menel told Platts in an interview. Phase 2-eligible CORSIA credits face shortage as compliance phase approaches As the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation enters its compliance phase in January 2027, the supply shortage that has characterized the first, non-mandatory phase is set to persist amid an expected lag in Phase 2 (P2) eligible credits. Only approximately 29 million credits issued by projects with Phase 1 (P1) supply, including tagged credits from Guyana, are also aligned with the ICAO P2 eligibility criteria (2027-2029 period) published in April 2026, according to Platts estimates. S&amp;P Global Energy Core India pushes equity, common but differentiated responsibilities ahead of COP31 India will push for attention to adaptation, mitigation and means of implementation at COP31 in Antalya, TÃ¼rkiye, in November, with New Delhi also offering to share its coastal expertise with Pacific Island nations. The Federal Minister for Environment, Forest and Climate Change Bhupender Yadav, called for the principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities to be upheld at the UN Climate Change Conference's Pre-COP31 meeting in Fiji. The Pre-COP was co-hosted by Fiji and Australia in the run up to COP31, scheduled for Nov. 9-20. Moeve agrees renewable PPAs for Spanish green hydrogen project Spanish refiner Moeve SA has secured long-term renewable power purchase agreements for the 300-megawatt green hydrogen project at its 225,000 b/d Huelva refinery in Spain, according to the company. The combined 500 GWh/year of solar power will supply the Onuba project at the Huelva Energy Park, where Moeve is the largest shareholder and operator through two PPAs with solar developer Alter Enersun. Supply will come from two solar photovoltaic plants in the region: 265 GWh from La Luz, which is operational, and 235 GWh from Puerto Sostenible, subject to the plant's completion. AZEC ministers commit to energy security, adopt work program for oil stockpiling Ministers from the Asia Zero Emission Community underscored their commitment to bolstering energy security and supply chain resilience, and to laying out a work program to facilitate the building of oil stockpiles amid disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The ministers said they reaffirmed their commitment to enhancing energy security and strengthening supply chain resilience to ensure regional stability and contribute to global energy resilience. The 4th AZEC Ministerial Meeting was held at the Philippine International Convention Center in Pasay City. ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/blog/crude-oil/091426-insight-conversation-takeshi-hashimoto-mitsui-osk-lines</link><description>Geopolitical risks, decarbonization and artificial intelligence (AI) have been reshaping the shipping industry more than ever. For Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd. (MOL), the recent Middle East conflict underscored the importance of resilience in the age of disruption. MOL Chairman Takeshi Hashimoto speaks with S&amp;amp;P Global Energy Editor Mia Pei on how the company navigated the crisis, the challenges of</description><title>INSIGHT CONVERSATION: Takeshi Hashimoto, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines</title><pubDate>14 September 2026 13:33:20 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Mia Pei</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Crude Oil, Maritime &amp; Shipping, Energy Transition, Electric Power, Refined Products, Agriculture, Chemicals, Renewables, Fuel Oil, Biofuels, Emissions, Food September 14, 2026 INSIGHT CONVERSATION: Takeshi Hashimoto, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines By Mia Pei Editor: Roma Arora Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... Geopolitical risks, decarbonization and artificial intelligence (AI) have been reshaping the shipping industry more than ever. For Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd. (MOL), the recent Middle East conflict underscored the importance of resilience in the age of disruption. MOL Chairman Takeshi Hashimoto speaks with S&amp;P Global Energy Editor Mia Pei on how the company navigated the crisis, the challenges of scaling low-carbon marine fuels, AI's value for the shipping industry and why international cooperation matters for the future of shipping. Hashimoto served as MOL's president and CEO from 2021 and transitioned to his role as chairman of the board earlier this year. How did the Middle East conflict affect MOL's operations? Energy shipping is one of MOL's core businesses, so when the conflict broke out, our top priority was the safety of cargoes, vessels and the lives of seafarers. As the situation escalated, we believed it was better to evacuate sooner rather than later. However, conditions were changing almost every day. Our evacuation program started in March, but the first vessel was only able to leave in early April. It was a very difficult period. Our teams worked almost all around the clock, constantly monitoring developments, conducting risk assessments and deciding evacuation procedures vessel by vessel. We consulted not only the Japanese government but also other government authorities, specialist consultancies and risk analysis experts. Fortunately, following the temporary suspension of hostilities and the ceasefire, we managed to evacuate almost all our ships without any serious injuries to seafarers or damage to cargo or vessels. It was an extremely stressful operation, but ultimately successful. The challenge now is different. The Persian Gulf remains one of the world's most important energy-producing regions. Asian countries such as Japan, China and India depend on reliable energy imports from the region. So far, we have focused on evacuation. It is still too early to fully resume normal trading. For the time being, we have suspended entering the Gulf, but both energy producers in countries such as Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, and importers across Asia, want trade to continue. Our next challenge is determining how to safely restart operations and establish new safety standards under these difficult conditions. How has this year's crisis changed the way MOL thinks about geopolitical risk? It is still a little bit too early to say this has changed our long-term strategy. So far, our response has been operational â protecting our interests and those of our customers. Many people are talking about diversifying energy imports. Some of our vessels have shifted to North America, South America and Australia to transport alternative oil and gas supplies. However, I see this as an operational response rather than a strategic shift. Over the longer term, I don't believe the global economy can meet total energy demand without the Middle East. We need to reestablish a stable and secure trading route between Gulf producers and major importing regions, especially Asia. International politics will, therefore, remain critical and we will continue monitoring developments carefully. For now, we are allocating more vessels to alternative trade routes, but this comes at a cost. Longer voyages and higher energy prices ultimately increase costs for importing countries such as Japan, South Korea, China and India. I sincerely hope a lasting ceasefire and peace can be achieved in the Middle East. If not, we will have to continue exploring alternative solutions. What is MOL's approach to alternative marine fuels? What remains the biggest obstacle to scaling them? Compared with the so-called 'oil shocks' of the 1970s, today's situation is much better because there are many more alternative energy sources available. Countries including China, India and Japan have significantly expanded renewable energy over the past 10 to 20 years, including solar and wind. Although the situation has been challenging, the global economy has continued operating without the major disruption many feared when the conflict began. This demonstrates that countries have become more resilient. Alternative energy development, alongside energy efficiency improvements and strategic petroleum reserves, particularly in Japan, has strengthened resilience. The biggest challenge in scaling alternative marine fuels is the lack of industry consensus on which fuel will ultimately become dominant. There are many promising options â biodiesel, biomethane, green and blue ammonia, green and blue methanol â but we still don't know which can be supplied in sufficient volume. Volume is extremely important. We have to think of an alternative to several hundred million tons of fuel oil. Today, many projects produce only half a million to two million tons of alternative fuels, which is far from sufficient. Logistics is another challenge. We need reliable supply chains that can deliver these fuels wherever our vessels operate. At present, production capacity and logistics remain at an early stage, making it difficult to identify the most feasible long-term candidate. Our strategy, therefore, is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions with every available option. Whenever biodiesel or green methanol becomes available, we will use it. At the same time, we are improving operational excellence through AI, reducing fuel consumption and deploying technologies such as wind-assist propulsion. Together, these measures could reduce our emissions by 40%-50% compared with several years ago. There is still a long journey toward our 2050 net-zero target. I hope that within the next 10 to 15 years, the industry will identify a mainstream fuel. Green ammonia and green methanol appear to be strong candidates today, but it is still too early to determine which will ultimately prove to be the most competitive and practical. For the next five years, our priority is to maximize emissions reductions by combining every available solution. How is AI creating value for MOL? Even before AI, we had already begun collecting and analyzing operational data from our fleet of around 900 vessels worldwide. We use that information to determine the most efficient route for each voyage and reduce energy consumption. AI can significantly improve this process by automating data collection and analysis. This allows us to process much larger amounts of information much more quickly and with fewer people. Looking ahead, if we could analyze data not only from our own fleet but all the vessels worldwide, AI could identify even better navigation patterns by incorporating trade flows, weather conditions and many other variables. We highly expect AI to help us further reduce fuel consumption and improve efficiency. However, safety must always come first. Sometimes the most fuel-efficient route is not the safest. We may need to avoid typhoons or hurricanes, by accepting additional fuel consumption. AI should support decision-making but it should not replace human judgment. Critical operational decisions must ultimately be made by experienced professionals. Beyond conventional shipping, where does MOL see its biggest growth opportunities? We believe offshore industries have enormous growth potential. Historically, the offshore business has centered on oil and gas, including FPSOs [floating production, storage and offloading vessels], FLNGs [floating liquefied natural gas vessels] and FSRUs [floating storage and regasification units], where we have invested heavily and developed strong expertise. In the future, however, we want to apply those offshore technologies beyond oil and gas. Examples include floating power plants, which we have already commenced as our business, floating data centers, floating offshore wind facilities and even floating nuclear power stations. As land becomes scarcer and greater flexibility is needed, floating infrastructure will become increasingly valuable. Our long-term vision is to transform MOL into a broader social infrastructure company, expanding our offshore capabilities into renewable energy, alternative energy and other power-related sectors. Looking ahead, what do you hope will have changed for MOL and the global shipping industry? Above all, I hope the world experiences less geopolitical tension. Shipping depends on international trade. While regional conflicts can temporarily increase shipping demand or create alternative trade routes, that is not sustainable growth. Our objective is long-term, sustainable growth. That requires making major investments, but today's political uncertainty makes long-term investment decisions much more difficult because we cannot predict what the world will look like in three or five years. I hope we see a more stable international environment. Today, many countries understandably prioritize their own national interests. However, major global challenges â energy security, food supply, population issues and climate change â cannot be solved by individual countries or companies acting alone. International cooperation is essential. MOL serves customers around the world. We want to see stable global economic growth, lower geopolitical tensions, and stronger international collaboration. That collaborative approach will also be essential for advancing decarbonization, developing alternative industries and addressing the world's biggest challenges. This interview has been edited for clarity and length. This article first appeared in the September 2026 edition of Insights Magazine. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/101326-japan-to-provide-p-ampi-compensate-cargo-hull-cover-for-crude-oil-products-lng-transport</link><description>Japan is set to provide protection and indemnity cover and partially compensate cargo and hull insurance payments for the transportation of crude oil, oil products and LNG, as part of a bill approved by the Cabinet on Oct. 13, a senior official at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said. The bill is one of three approved by the Japanese Cabinet earlier Oct. 13 to enhance the security of</description><title>Japan to provide P&amp;amp;I, compensate cargo, hull cover for crude, oil products, LNG transport</title><pubDate>13 October 2026 10:10:55 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Takeo Kumagai</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Maritime &amp; Shipping, Refined Products, Crude Oil, LNG, Energy Transition, Agriculture, Naphtha, Carbon, Biofuels October 13, 2026 Japan to provide P&amp;I, compensate cargo, hull cover for crude, oil products, LNG transport By Takeo Kumagai Editor: Sivassanggari Tamil selvam Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS To provide LNG shipping insurance if foreign reinsurance is lost Three bills to enhance stability of crude oil, other fuel supplies JOGMEC to provide subsidies based on CCS cost-carbon price gap Japan is set to provide protection and indemnity cover and partially compensate cargo and hull insurance payments for the transportation of crude oil, oil products and LNG, as part of a bill approved by the Cabinet on Oct. 13, a senior official at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said. The bill is one of three approved by the Japanese Cabinet earlier Oct. 13 to enhance the security of the country's crude oil supply, among others, amid the conflict in the Middle East. "The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism will revise the existing specified tanker act. The current law covers crude oil, and the scope will be expanded to include petroleum products such as naphtha, as well as liquefied natural gas," the METI official told a press briefing. METI will also introduce similar support measures for hull insurance and cargo insurance, the official added. In response to the Middle East situation and to ensure a stable supply of energy to Japan, METI said the government will establish a program under which it will partially compensate non-life insurance companies for the funds required to pay insurance claims under marine property insurance, such as cargo and hull insurance, covering the transportation of crude oil, oil products and LNG, even in cases where the provision of reinsurance is prohibited. "In the event foreign insurance companies become unable to provide reinsurance coverage, a situation could arise where the cargo is available but cannot be transported," the official said. "To address such circumstances, the government will establish a mechanism to fill the gap left by the unavailable foreign reinsurance coverage." Japan introduced a law in 2012 to compensate P&amp;I cover as a sovereign guarantee for each tanker carrying Iranian crude amid EU sanctions against Iran â an initiative that remains in effect to date. However, Japan suspended its imports of Iranian oil in May 2019. The Japan P&amp;I Club, formally known as the Japan Ship Owners' Mutual Protection &amp; Indemnity Association, provides insurance cover of up to about $9.8 billion per tanker. METI Minister Ryosei Akazawa said earlier Oct. 13, "Today, the Cabinet approved three bills: a bill concerning the rationalization of the use of designated sea lanes to ensure the stable transportation of crude oil among others; a bill on special measures to secure the fulfillment of specified cargo insurance contracts and specified vessel insurance contracts; and a bill to partially amend the Act on the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security." "In light of the structural changes taking place in the global energy landscape, including the recent situation in the Middle East, it is necessary to strengthen the resilience of Japan's energy supply and demand structure," Akazawa told reporters. "Through these three bills, we aim to fundamentally enhance the stability of procurement by diversifying the sourcing of crude oil and other fossil fuels and reducing associated risks," he added. The Cabinet's approval comes after Japan formulated an energy policy package on Aug. 26, under the direction of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, to bolster the resilience of the country's energy supply and demand system through Green Transformation (GX) initiatives known as POWERR GX. Other bills The first bill, which concerns the rationalization of the use of designated sea lanes to ensure the stable transportation of crude oil and oil products, importers such as refiners, petrochemical producers and trading houses will receive grants when they procure crude oil and oil products from suppliers located outside the Strait of Hormuz region, the official said. To receive the grant, these companies will be required to formulate a designated sea lane rationalization plan that sets out details such as procurement targets, the types of crude oil covered, shipping routes and the duration of the plan, the official added. The government will then review and certify the plan, after which JOGMEC will provide grants covering a portion of the costs associated with supply diversification, the official said. The funding for these grants will come from contributions paid by refiners and other importers, which JOGMEC will use to finance the grant program, the official added. Regarding the bill amending the JOGMEC Act, the official said the recent situation in the Middle East has underscored the critical role that alternative pipelines can play in ensuring Japan's crude oil procurement. The proposed measure would allow JOGMEC to provide equity investments and debt guarantees for such pipelines, which are not associated with specific oil and gas fields, as it can currently provide equity investments and debt guarantees only for pipelines associated with oil and gas fields, the official added. As part of the amendments to the JOGMEC Act, JOGMEC's mandate will also be expanded to include equity investments and debt guarantees for projects involved in overseas biofuel production, the official said. "Demand for biofuels and other alternative fuels is expected to increase due to regulations in Japan and overseas," the official said. "It is important to ensure ample supply so that biofuel supply and demand can be brought into proper balance." JOGMEC's functions will also be expanded to include equity investments and debt guarantees for smelting and refining projects that process used materials, such as spent batteries and other recyclable metal resources, the official said. JOGMEC will also be given the additional function of administering subsidy programs for carbon capture and storage projects, the official said, adding that the subsidies will be provided in accordance with grant criteria established by METI and are intended to support projects by addressing the gap between CCS costs and the prevailing carbon price. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/101326-entsog-slashes-2040-european-clean-hydrogen-demand-outlook-by-a-third</link><description>Europe&amp;apos;s gas grid operator group ENTSOG has dramatically cut its forecasts for European hydrogen demand in its latest Ten-Year Network Development Plan, with projected consumption in 2040 now running nearly one-third below the level assumed just two years ago -- a revision that reflects delayed project investment timelines, sector consolidation and a reality check for the continent&amp;apos;s energy</description><title>ENTSOG slashes 2040 European clean hydrogen demand outlook by a third</title><pubDate>13 October 2026 07:55:03 GMT</pubDate><author><name>James Burgess</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Natural Gas, Hydrogen October 13, 2026 ENTSOG slashes 2040 European clean hydrogen demand outlook by a third By James Burgess Editor: Sarah Mishra Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS 2040 demand 1,296 TWh/year in latest network plan 2030 EU hydrogen demand forecast almost halved Infrastructure gaps leave 12% demand unmet Europe's gas grid operator group ENTSOG has dramatically cut its forecasts for European hydrogen demand in its latest Ten-Year Network Development Plan, with projected consumption in 2040 now running nearly one-third below the level assumed just two years ago -- a revision that reflects delayed project investment timelines, sector consolidation and a reality check for the continent's energy transition. The draft Hydrogen Infrastructure Gaps Identification report for TYNDP 2026, published Oct. 12 for public consultation, assumes EU hydrogen demand of around 335 terawatt-hours/year in 2030 and approximately 1,296 TWh/year in 2040 -- compared with 620 TWh/year and 1,929 TWh/year respectively in the TYNDP 2024 assessment. The 2030 figure represents a 46% reduction and the 2040 figure a 33% cut, according to the draft report. The downward revisions flow directly through to the report's assessment of infrastructure stress. Curtailed hydrogen demand -- the volume of demand that cannot be satisfied due to insufficient supply or transmission capacity -- falls from 52 TWh/year in the 2024 assessment to 36 TWh/year in 2030, and from 294 TWh/year to just 62 TWh/year in 2040 under the new figures. ENTSOG said the lower demand assumptions "reduce overall stress on the hydrogen system, leading to lower demand curtailment and better market-clearing price spreads." Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy, last assessed Northwest European long-term renewable hydrogen offtake prices at â¬6.70/kg ($7.52/kg) on Oct. 1. German demand hub ENTSOG said the comparison between the two assessments "confirms several consistent structural findings regarding the future European hydrogen market." Germany remains the main future hydrogen demand and transit hub, while the Iberian Peninsula, the Nordic corridor and import routes from North Africa and Ukraine remain the primary sources of hydrogen imports to the European network. Central and South-Eastern Europe, including the Balkans, is again identified as structurally vulnerable to infrastructure constraints in both the 2024 and 2026 assessments. The report notes that even under the lower demand scenario, 12% of European hydrogen demand remains unmet in 2030, with nine countries experiencing severe curtailment rates ranging from 70% to full supply disruption. Europe's hydrogen pipeline plans are taking shape, with the first sections of a planned 30,000-kilometer network already completed and primed to start operations. But developers are facing a reality check in Europe's energy transition, which has stalled infrastructure projects and pushed back development timelines. Most European countries will rely on domestic production for 2030 clean hydrogen needs, ENTSOG said, while infrastructure developments will expand storage, import and pipeline transport capacity by 2035. By 2035, infrastructure expansion under the EU's projects of common and mutual interest pipeline reduces unsatisfied demand to 3% at EU level, before rising again to 5% in both 2040 and 2050 as demand growth outpaces infrastructure build-out. Insufficient transmission capacity The 2026 assessment also extends the planning horizon to cover 2035 and 2050 -- years not assessed in the 2024 report -- and focuses exclusively on the PCI/PMI infrastructure level of mature hydrogen projects, dropping the "Advanced" infrastructure level assessed in 2024 following a recommendation from the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators. The report identifies insufficient transmission capacity and limited market connections as "the primary drivers of hydrogen demand curtailment and market-clearing price spreads across the EU," and concludes that beyond 2040, expansion of cross-border pipeline networks alongside storage and import capacity will be necessary to eliminate remaining infrastructure gaps. The draft report is open for stakeholder consultation until Oct. 30. Following consultation, the report will be submitted to ACER, the European Commission and EU member states for their formal opinions. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/101326-imo-seeks-net-zero-framework-deal-as-support-grows-for-ghg-standards</link><description>International Maritime Organization member states are seeking to compromise on the Net-Zero Framework, with more consensus forming around regulating marine energy&amp;apos;s greenhouse gas emissions intensity, a senior official of the UN agency said Oct. 13. In October 2025, IMO member states voted to delay the framework&amp;apos;s adoption by a year amid strong opposition from the US and Middle Eastern oil</description><title>IMO seeks Net-Zero Framework deal as support grows for GHG standards</title><pubDate>13 October 2026 17:37:23 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Max Lin</name></author><content><![CDATA[ LNG, Energy Transition, Natural Gas, Electric Power, Crude Oil, Refined Products, Chemicals, Maritime &amp; Shipping, Emissions, Fuel Oil October 13, 2026 IMO seeks Net-Zero Framework deal as support grows for GHG standards By Max Lin Editor: Marieke Alsguth Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS IMO member states negotiate compromise terms US and petrostates remain in IMO talks Technical measures gain consensus International Maritime Organization member states are seeking to compromise on the Net-Zero Framework, with more consensus forming around regulating marine energy's greenhouse gas emissions intensity, a senior official of the UN agency said Oct. 13. In October 2025, IMO member states voted to delay the framework's adoption by a year amid strong opposition from the US and Middle Eastern oil producers, which argued it will lead to inflation by adding a cost to GHG from ship operations, among other reasons. Dorota Lost-Sieminska, director of the IMO's Legal Affairs and External Relations Division, said the US and major oil-producing countries had been among the countries pushing for the delay in 2025 but stressed that opposition to the framework did not amount to a rejection of the IMO process itself. "They didn't say that 'we don't want to negotiate'. They said, yes, 'we will negotiate in the future,'" Lost Sieminska said in the CSN London Maritime Forum. The US, having rejected the NZF as it sees it as a form of carbon tax proposal, has remained in recent IMO discussions while signalling support for revisions that remove more mandatory financial elements in the regulation. In another event on Oct. 23, Saudi state carrier Bahri has argued for technology-driven decarbonization for shipping that can facilitate global seaborne trades without disruptions. "We've been living with the word decarbonization for a while now. It's becoming part of our meetings, part of our plans, part of our investments," Bahri CEO Ahmed Ali Alsubaey said at the WPC Energy Congress. "But it's not a matter whether deep-sea shipping will decarbonize, we will. But can we do it without disrupting the reliability of global trade? That's the key question." Seeking consensus The current framework has what member states describe as technical measures, thresholds for marine energy's GHG intensity in the coming years, and economical measures, financial costs for ship emissions exceeding the thresholds. "We are clear that we need technical measures ... on that, the IMO member states are clear and are on board," Lost-Sieminska said. "With the economic measure, we don't know." Many analysts and environmentalists said a robust carbon price mechanism is needed to promote industry-wide low-carbon bunker transition, with the costs of sustainable marine fuels much higher than conventional, oil-based bunker due to limited availability. August's delivered bunker costs for very low sulfur fuel oil were $20.15/gigajoule in Singapore, compared with $48.54/GJ for 100% sustainable methanol, according to the Platts global bunker fuel cost calculator from S&amp;P Global Energy. "Member states are still negotiating," Lost-Sieminska said. "So I strongly believe that we will find a solution, a compromise. We would like to avoid regional solutions and fragmentation and there is a need to have a global solution." At the same CSN conference, Karrie Trauth, president of the UK Chamber of Shipping, said shipowners would prefer a global compromise over a fragmented regional framework. "We'll have compromise," Trauth, who is also Shell's shipping head, said. "It may not be perfect regulation, but actually shipowners would prefer a compromise that is a global set of regulation." US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/technology-ai-research-insights/special-reports/2026-trends-in-data-center-services-infrastructure</link><description>Discover the ten key trends that 451 Research analysts anticipate across data center services and infrastructure in 2026.</description><title>2026 Trends in Data Center Services &amp;amp; Infrastructure</title><pubDate>23 January 2026 11:26:00 GMT</pubDate><content><![CDATA[ S&amp;P Global Energy 2026 Trends in Data Center Services &amp; Infrastructure Discover the ten key trends that 451 Research analysts anticipate across data center services and infrastructure in 2026. Learn More Let's Talk Need technology industry data and insights? Connect with us today to explore how 451 Research solutions can help guide strategic decision-making Contact Sales On this page Introduction About this report The Take Trends Methodology Further reading On this page Introduction About this report The Take Trends Methodology Further reading Introduction For decades, data centers have been essential infrastructure for IT expansion worldwide. However, the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022 sparked a generative AI boom and a race to build infrastructure for GenAI model training and use. This AI training infrastructure requires more energy and more efficient cooling than typical IT infrastructure, which impacts data center design, requires new construction and makes access to electricity a key potential bottleneck for the growth of AI. As utilities struggle to determine how much energy data centers will require over the longer term, fears are mounting that infrastructure could be over-built and demand may not materialize. The size and quantity of data centers have attracted scrutiny from governments, local citizens and environmental groups. Governments (and utilities) have restricted data center development in various markets even as the industry becomes more efficient and seeks to use renewable energy. AI training facilities can theoretically be placed in locations where electricity is available, away from population centers; however, it is not yet clear how much AI inference can be performed from those locations. Data gravity, as well as regulations, will impact IT workload placement, along with the need for interconnection between data, software, AI models and end users. We believe that the need for data centers will continue; however, some of the current build plans may not materialize or may be delayed. Back to Top About this report Reports such as this showcase insights derived from a variety of market-level research inputs, including financial data, M&amp;A information and other market data sources both proprietary to S&amp;P Global and publicly available. This input is combined with ongoing observation of markets and regular interaction with vendors and other key market players. This report specifically includes data from the following sources: Data Center Services &amp; Infrastructure Market Monitor &amp; Forecast Voice of the Enterprise: Data Centers, Colocation 2025 Voice of the Enterprise: Data Centers, Liquid Cooling Technology 2025 Back to Top The Take We continue to see large-scale plans for data center construction around the world to serve GenAI needs, even as concerns grow that not all the planned infrastructure will be required (or that it will be commercially viable to build). Although the adoption of generative AI and other types of AI is strong, it is difficult to know how much energy and data center infrastructure will be required and when. We believe that the data center industry itself is relatively agile and can quickly adjust or suspend build plans to match the demand for IT infrastructure. However, power infrastructure is not typically as agile or quick to build, which can create a potential mismatch between electrical system plans and data center demand that may not materialize. Sustainability remains a key concern, and a top question is whether AI infrastructure will lead to extended lives for coal-fired power plants or the construction of additional gas-fired power plants, which could impact carbon targets. We will continue to model how AI adoption is likely to affect data center demand as well as work with our S&amp;P Global Energy colleagues to model the energy industryâs response. We will also continue to examine new technological advances, supply chain challenges and the regulatory environment for data centers. Back to Top Trends we anticipate in 2026 Trend 1: Race to build AI data centers will continue hyperscalers and leading generative AI firms have engaged in what can only be described as an AI arms race. OpenAI, Google, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle, Meta, Alibaba and others have committed hundreds of billions of dollars to train large language models in the hopes of gaining first-mover advantage and being recognized as having the âbest model.â This approach is exceedingly resource-intensive: Training a top LLM can use tens of thousands of graphics processing unit chips, each requiring 5-8 times (or more) the energy of other chips. These must be housed in data centers, along with data storage gear, other computational hardware and networking equipment. This AI demand has been particularly strong in North America so far, as most generative AI models have been developed in this region. However, firms have been laying the groundwork to develop large-scale AI data centers outside the US. Although some âprospectorâ data center builders are included in this forecast, as well as some duplicate plans for expansion that may not materialize or be delayed, we expect strong data center growth to continue globally in the immediate future. Back to Top Trend 2: Data center constraints will impact location and speed of builds Multiple factors determine data center location, and several of these are facing growing constraints. The first is related to AI use cases. There are relatively few location requirements related to AI workloads â AI model training can generally be carried out quite a distance away from where end users are located, for example. However, we are tracking AI use cases to monitor the need for AI inference or training that requires rapid connectivity or specific data constraints (e.g., due to data sovereignty requirements) and would need to be in a specific location, such as near urban centers. Another location factor is available power. Firms expecting to benefit from AI infrastructure demand, such as hyperscale cloud providers, are seeking to lock in as much power for future data centers as possible to avoid having their growth restrained by energy availability and potentially losing out to competitors that have access to more power. However, it is unclear exactly how much power will be required. This creates challenges for energy utilities, particularly if they need to build additional generation capacity and transmission lines (which can take years) to meet this expected demand. Many of the most desirable data center markets already face constraints related to power, including potential shortages of generation capacity or challenges in building transmission lines. These include PJM (which covers top data center markets such as Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania) as well as ERCOT (Texas). Data center developers increasingly face a choice between waiting years for a grid connection in a desirable location, seeking a less desirable site with faster access to grid power, or using behind-the-meter power (e.g., constructing a natural gas-fired power plant). Additional location factors include electricity costs, taxes, regulations, local resistance to data centers, availability of fiber, type of power available (e.g., from renewable sources), water access, suitable land and the ability to plug into district heating systems or other off-takers for heat. We are developing a model to weigh the trade-offs among data center locations to build scenarios for growth by area and the resulting market for behind-the-meter power options. Back to Top FEATURED WEBINAR 3Q 2026 Global Data Center Market Trends and Analysis Our quarterly read on absorption, supply, and pricing across 460+ markets. Register to join our regional directors live or sign up to watch the replay. Hosted by datacenterHawk, now a part of S&amp;P Global Energy. 🗒 Thursday, October 22, 2026 â± 11:00 AM - 12:00 PM EDT Learn more and register Trend 3: The ability to raise capital will be a key differentiator for data center providers and customers Organizations have invested massive amounts of capital in AI infrastructure so far, with continued eye-watering amounts expected, even without factoring in the costs of AI chips, servers and electrical infrastructure, such as transmission and generation. In the US alone, we project average spending on data center construction of more than $70 billion per quarter from 2025 to 2028. Numerous firms are hoping to enter the sector, and those with access to capital and experience in securing land, power and permits will be better positioned for success. New entrants can add competition in some locations, but they can also offer data center providers the opportunity to sell facilities that are already leased â with predictable revenue and appeal to investors â freeing up capital to build new facilities elsewhere. Vertically integrated models are also emerging, with energy companies, for example, entering the data center industry. Business models are evolving to become more specialized in managing capital, obtaining permits or power and serving particular customer segments. We will continue to explore how these data centers will be funded, how the industry is evolving and the business models that are emerging as a result. Back to Top Trend 4: The AI value chain will continue to support renewable energy Top AI and cloud firms have maintained their renewable energy targets, as have many of the firms that build or lease data centers to these clients, even as their annual electricity consumption rises. Although many technology firms claim to offset 100% of their energy use by procuring renewable energy, they also have data centers that rely on carbon-emitting power generation. This is expected to increase in many locations, as added electricity demand requires utilities to delay the retirement of coal generation or add gas-fired power plants. Additionally, data center firms themselves sometimes build their own gas-fired power plants if the grid cannot accommodate their needs. As a result, there has been a clear trend toward greater renewable procurement among surveyed companies, according to the âGlobal Datacenters Clean Energy Sourcing Strategy â 2025 update,â with the share of power sourced from renewables estimated at 58%, versus about 50% in the 2024 report. Power purchase agreements remain the primary method for renewable procurement, supplemented by unbundled certificates and green tariffs. While solar is a major source of supply, there is a growing emphasis on hybrid and nuclear solutions. However, in many areas, even if sufficient renewable or low-carbon generation is planned, a mismatch may occur between when the power-hungry data centers need that energy and the time it takes to add that capacity (e.g., from nuclear power). We will continue to work with teams across S&amp;P Global to track data center growth and its impact on both utilities and renewable energy. As data center power demand continues to rise, the tech industry may provide financial support for expanding generation across the board, including both renewable and non-renewable resources. But the need to offset increased emissions could drive investment into higher-cost technologies such as nuclear, carbon capture and storage, and battery energy storage systems. Back to Top Trend 5: AI requirements encourage innovation in data center technology AI workloads typically require high-density infrastructure at the data center level; however, this high-density equipment can generate a large amount of heat, testing the limits of standard data center cooling systems. Until recently, most IT equipment has been cooled using fans to pull cold air past the hot elements to remove the heat. However, as these components become smaller and hotter, they can reach the limit of what fans and cool air can do. Liquid is a more efficient cooling medium than air and has been used for some high-performance computing and advanced modeling, but it has not been broadly adopted in the data center industry for a variety of reasons. That may be changing. Our survey of enterprise data center decision-makers reveals that 21% of respondents plan to shift to liquid cooling over the next year, up from 13% in 2024âs survey, with another 25% planning to switch over the next two to four years. It helps that technological innovations have made liquid cooling easier to use and retrofitting operational data centers less costly. Most importantly, the increase in high-density workloads, combined with requirements that data centers be as efficient and sustainable as possible, is set to make liquid cooling a more logical approach than air cooling. After years of adoption for specialized uses, the combination of higher-density servers, liquid cooling innovation and sustainability benefits may finally lead to broad adoption. In addition, the industry is looking at other technological advancements in backup systems, such as using alternatives to lead-acid or lithium-based batteries, using diesel alternatives for generators or replacing generators altogether with hydrogen fuel cells or renewable power sources. Data center firms are also exploring the reuse of heat by plugging into local district heating systems, as well as investigating ways to reduce embodied carbon. We plan to examine and compare many of these proposed technologies in the year ahead. Back to Top Trend 6: Interconnection will continue to drive data center demand Companies that use colocation services increasingly point to interconnection â with public cloud, service providers, networks, partners and customers â as a key reason for leasing space in a data center (see Figure 4). As AI inferencing workloads grow, we expect these workloads to boost demand for interconnection. Inference workloads tend to be more dispersed â analogous to web front ends, as opposed to the training workloads, which are similar to back-end resources. This dispersed nature will impact network requirements, and these workloads are expected to require interconnection between AI modeling resources, data potentially stored outside of public cloud and diverse end users. Leased data center providers focused on interconnection typically have higher network density than other data centers and often have more large-capacity networks connected, which could help solve a key problem for enterprises regarding their AI workloads: network performance. To improve interconnection services, data center operators should consider a cloud-native approach. This could include partnering with cloud-native wide area network providers to offer connectivity in a self-service form with quick turnaround. This would allow networking to become a fluid proposition that could respond to the needs of both AI and non-AI workloads flowing between public cloud (possibly from multiple cloud providers), as-a-service providers and private cloud. In addition, data centers should think beyond interconnection to focus on helping enterprises wrestle with growing quantities of data. Leased data centers can offer a secure place to store data at a lower cost than public cloud storage, and with automated interconnection enabling that data to be used by applications residing in various clouds. This could be a differentiator for leased data centers, making them more appealing than public cloud for data storage and preferable to on-premises facilities for enterprises, thanks to their connectivity options. We expect to see continued growth and innovation around interconnection. Back to Top Trend 7: Data centers at the edge will become more important in an age of AI inferencing AI inferencing, the process that a trained AI model uses to analyze new data, creates an unprecedented opportunity for edge computing. Inferencing must run somewhere, and every computing venue is a candidate, from processors on devices such as cell phones to large-scale public cloud venues. While some inference will certainly run on public cloud, some will also likely run closer to end users, at the edge. Much will depend on the use cases for AI: Applications that need to respond in real time will be more likely to run edge inferencing. However, the edge may also be attractive for enterprises that want more control over data. Enterprises have already noted in our surveys that top reasons for processing AI tasks at the edge include security and data sovereignty, not just performance requirements. Key questions for enterprises will be: Which venue will provide the necessary AI inferencing performance at the lowest cost and with the least complexity? Network growth and innovation will also affect what data will be processed and stored at the edge and what will be moved elsewhere, as will changes to the infrastructure required to support these deployments (e.g., compute, storage, content delivery, accelerators, power, footprint, noise level, ruggedization). Edge vendors or operators will need to satisfy requirements for low maintenance, space constraints and power conservation. Still, the use cases will vary enormously, so it may be hard for vendors to gain scale in an atomized market. The ecosystem of vendors, operators, financiers and network providers at the edge is evolving rapidly, so we will continue to follow this market. Back to Top Trend 8: Blockchain, cryptocurrency will offer both pros and cons for the data center industry The cryptocurrency mining industry continues to add data center capacity, in many cases taking advantage of renewable energy or stranded energy, thanks to the relative flexibility of its workloads. Most miners build and operate their own data centers, and some are considering offering these capabilities to other enterprises, particularly those with similar computing profiles and requirements, such as firms with high-performance computing (HPC) and AI workloads. However, when mining companies build facilities specifically for AI or HPC workloads, they are typically closer to more traditional data center builds (e.g., with backup power and some redundancy of equipment) than mining facilities, largely due to client requirements. Thus, cryptocurrency firms are in some cases becoming competitors to traditional leased data center providers. We continue to monitor the cryptocurrency industry and its requirements, as well as blockchain, and the impact both have on the data center industry. Back to Top Trend 9: Geopolitics, regulation will continue to shape data center industry dynamics Data center developers and operators will need to navigate an increasingly complex web of geopolitical pressures and regulatory requirements for AI infrastructure. Export controls on high-performance AI chips, particularly between the US and China, are affecting hardware availability and influencing which countries require the highest-density data centers. Data sovereignty and privacy regulations continue to drive demand for local data centers or edge deployments. In addition, some governments are offering incentives â such as tax breaks â to attract sustainable, high-tech infrastructure. Other countries are imposing strict environmental or water-use restrictions that constrain data center growth. Political stability and energy policy are emerging as key factors that AI players need to consider. Regulators could add requirements to planning and approvals, such as targets for power use and efficiency or penalties that apply when data centers create a potential power imbalance in the regional grid. AI infrastructure players may need to seek off-grid or hybrid power sources to mitigate regulatory risk and reduce the time to market for their sites. We anticipate that regulatory and geopolitical factors will continue to influence global growth patterns. Companies with experience navigating these challenges that can rapidly adapt their infrastructure and sourcing strategies and coordinate well with local authorities will have a competitive advantage, particularly for large-scale facilities. Back to Top Interested in learning how 451 Research Solutions can help you navigate market disruption and technology innovation? Contact Sales Methodology S&amp;P Global Energy Horizons 451 Research provides essential insight into key trends driving digital transformation across the entire technology landscape. By offering a combination of expert analyst insight and differentiated data, 451 Research enables the industry with the information and perspectives they require to make more effective decisions. Reports such as this offer a holistic perspective on key trends and themes driving the technology space over the coming year. These markets evolve quickly, so 451 Research offers a wide range of research services that provide critical marketplace updates on an ongoing basis. These reports, datasets and perspectives are published frequently, in numerous short- and long-form formats. Forward-looking M&amp;A analysis and perspectives on strategic acquisitions and the liquidity environment for technology companies are also updated regularly, backed by industry-leading databases such as the 451 Research M&amp;A KnowledgeBase. Our research is organized into channels that align with the prevailing key issues driving digital transformation. These channels are: Applied Infrastructure &amp; DevOps; Cloud &amp; Managed Services Transformation; Customer Experience &amp; Commerce; Data, AI &amp; Analytics; Data Center Services &amp; Infrastructure; Fintech; Information Security; IoT, Edge &amp; Digital Industries; and Workforce Productivity &amp; Collaboration. For more information about 451 Research, please go to: spglobal.com/451research. Back to Top Further reading âBring your own powerâ is an option for those that cannot wait, November 2025 2026 US Data Centers and Energy Report, November 2025 What happened to the data center slowdowns? October 2025 The Nordics: Sweden Leased Data Center Market, October 2025 State-level data center policies, then and now: Part 1, the major markets, October 2025 India: Leased Data Center Market, October 2025 Asset-backed securities pave the way for a new data center financing model in Europe, September 2025 Air cooling remains prevalent, but liquid cooling is gaining momentum â Highlights from VotE: Datacenters, September 2025 Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei datacenter market remains one of the largest globally, July 2025 Truths about how the power sector can (and cannot) respond to datacenter needs, April 2025 Back to Top Authors: Kelly Morgan , Perkins Liu, Mai Barakat, Brian Partridge, Filippo Bonanno, Matthew Richesin, Soon Chen Kang, Dan Thompson, Leika Kawasaki, Stefanie Williams Design: Content Design ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/podcasts/energy-evolution/101326-inside-cbams-first-year-what-traders-importers-and-policymakers-learned</link><description>In this week&amp;apos;s episode of Energy Evolution, host Eklavya Gupte takes stock of the EU&amp;apos;s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism nearly a year into its definitive phase, and asks a pointed question: Is it working? To answer this, he is joined by Alwyn Hopkins, director and sustainability leader for Industrials and Energy at EY UK; Dan Maleski, director at the EY Global Tax Center of Excellence; and Irina</description><title>Inside CBAM&amp;apos;s first year: what traders, importers and policymakers learned</title><pubDate>13 October 2026 17:12:36 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Eklavya Gupte</name><name>Irina Breilean</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Metals &amp; Mining, Emissions, Carbon, Ferrous October 13, 2026 Inside CBAM's first year: what traders, importers and policymakers learned Featuring Eklavya Gupte and Irina Breilean HIGHLIGHTS Default emissions values reshape trade economics Traders build hedges for EU carbon exposure CBAM accelerates global carbon pricing regimes In this week's episode of Energy Evolution, host Eklavya Gupte takes stock of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism nearly a year into its definitive phase, and asks a pointed question: Is it working? To answer this, he is joined by Alwyn Hopkins, director and sustainability leader for Industrials and Energy at EY UK; Dan Maleski, director at the EY Global Tax Center of Excellence; and Irina Breilean, senior carbon price reporter at Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy. Together, they examine how punishing default emissions values are rewriting the economics of steel, fertilizer and other carbon-intensive imports, how traders are building proxy hedges to manage exposure to volatile EU carbon prices, and why 2027 will mark a decisive shift from compliance accounting to live cash flow pressure. The episode also looks beyond Europe, tracing how CBAM is accelerating the development of carbon pricing regimes from India to Brazil, and what the UK's own version of the mechanism, launching in January 2027, means for global trade flows. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/100926-china-eyes-global-carbon-market-role-via-article-6-framework-wbcsd-executive</link><description>China is cautiously positioning itself for a larger role in international carbon trading, with the Article 6 framework of the Paris Agreement emerging as a potential bridge between its domestic emissions markets and a global system, said Dominic Kailashnath Waughray, Executive Vice President, World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD). &amp;quot;Article 6 provides a framework for</description><title>China eyes global carbon market role via Article 6 framework: WBCSD executive</title><pubDate>09 October 2026 11:26:43 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Donavan Lim</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Metals &amp; Mining, Emissions, Carbon, Ferrous, Non-Ferrous October 09, 2026 China eyes global carbon market role via Article 6 framework: WBCSD executive By Donavan Lim Editor: Debiprasad Nayak Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS World's largest carbon market eyes international linkage Data quality, verification central to China's global ambitions Credit integrity to determine international value China is cautiously positioning itself for a larger role in international carbon trading, with the Article 6 framework of the Paris Agreement emerging as a potential bridge between its domestic emissions markets and a global system, said Dominic Kailashnath Waughray, Executive Vice President, World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD). "Article 6 provides a framework for international cooperation, rather than a domestic carbon market that an individual country establishes," Waughray told Platts, part of S&amp;P Global Energy Oct. 5. "The relevant question is how China may participate in cross-border carbon trading under the Article 6 framework." China's carbon market, now the world's largest by covered emissions, faces the next challenge of linking its expanding national emissions trading system and emerging voluntary market with international carbon trading platforms as Beijing pursues broader integration. That will require a careful balancing act, Waughray said, adding China would need to ensure that any international participation supports its domestic climate objectives while maintaining confidence in the integrity of its carbon markets. International carbon trading under Article 6 has implications for national climate targets and emissions accounting. For China, any cross-border transfer of emissions reductions, therefore, needs to be authorized and regulated at the national level, Waughray said. China has established a robust domestic carbon market, with its national ETS encompassing power generation and having recently expanded to steel, cement, and aluminum, while additional high-emitting sectors are slated for inclusion. The country also operates a voluntary market based on China Certified Emission Reduction credits. Waughray said the development of these markets could eventually give China a larger pool of emissions reductions and removals to draw on internationally, although that would not necessarily mean China would become a major exporter of credits. "China could ultimately participate on both sides of international carbon markets," Waughray said. China was previously one of the world's largest suppliers of carbon credits through the Clean Development Mechanism. Its position has shifted now as Beijing places greater emphasis on domestic carbon markets and its own climate commitments. Whether China emerges as a net buyer or seller under Article 6 will depend on how the government chooses to integrate international carbon trading with its domestic system, Waughray said "At this stage, it is too early to say definitively which role will dominate," he said. Interoperability challenge For global investors and companies, Waughray said the more important question may be whether China's market can become interoperable with other carbon-pricing systems. He said different markets do not need identical rules, but require sufficient common ground on emissions accounting, verification, transparency and safeguards against double counting. "The objective should not be identical rules across markets, but convergence where it matters and clarity around acceptable differences," Waughray said. That issue could become increasingly important as carbon costs filter through global supply chains. A manufacturer sourcing steel or aluminum from China, for example, may need to account for the emissions associated with those materials while also understanding their treatment under various carbon pricing and border adjustment regimes. For China, the commercial stakes are substantial. Its national ETS now covers thousands of major emitting entities and billions of mt of carbon dioxide emissions. Beijing is gradually moving toward tighter emissions controls and a greater role for paid allowances, increasing the potential for carbon prices to influence corporate investment. But Waughray cautioned that scale alone would not be enough. For international buyers, he said, the value of Chinese carbon credits hinges on confidence that emissions reductions are genuine, additional, measurable, and not subject to double counting. That puts data quality and verification at the centre of China's international ambitions, Waughray said. "The practical challenge is how different carbon-market systems can work together," he said. He said China's impact on global carbon markets will depend not only on the volume of credits it generates, but also on how seamlessly its domestic system integrates with evolving international frameworks. Article 6 could provide that connection. For Beijing, however, Waughray said the priority would remain ensuring that international participation supports â rather than complicates â China's own climate commitments and economic transition. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/100826-global-electrification-nuclear-push-emerge-as-key-to-energy-security-ieas-birol</link><description>Global energy trade is experiencing a rapid shift toward electrification, renewable energy and nuclear power, in response to energy supply disruptions caused by geopolitical conflicts, International Energy Agency&amp;apos;s executive director Fatih Birol said Oct. 8. In his video remarks at the Innovation for Cool Earth Forum conference in Tokyo, Birol described the disturbances as &amp;quot;the largest energy</description><title>Global electrification, nuclear push emerge as key to energy security: IEA&amp;apos;s Birol</title><pubDate>08 October 2026 06:50:43 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Ruchira Singh</name><name>Takeo Kumagai</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Electric Power, Energy Transition, Coal, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Renewables October 08, 2026 Global electrification, nuclear push emerge as key to energy security: IEA's Birol By Ruchira Singh and Takeo Kumagai Editor: Ankit Ajmera Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Renewable energy, EV penetration accelerate Appetite for nuclear generation grows Electrification is key focus for COP31 Global energy trade is experiencing a rapid shift toward electrification, renewable energy and nuclear power, in response to energy supply disruptions caused by geopolitical conflicts, International Energy Agency's executive director Fatih Birol said Oct. 8. In his video remarks at the Innovation for Cool Earth Forum conference in Tokyo, Birol described the disturbances as "the largest energy supply disruption in history," noting that countries' responses to the crisis are set to reshape energy trade. "Many countries in the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia and [United Arab] Emiratesm are looking for alternative routes for exports," Birol said. "The consuming countries [are looking] for new partners and also for the new fuels and technologies." Birol said that over the last seven months, renewable power, which was already expanding swiftly, accelerated significantly, particularly in solar energy. Electric car sales demonstrated double-digit growth not only in China and Europe, but also in Thailand, Vietnam, Australia, Brazil and other countries, he said. Looking ahead, interest in nuclear power is expected to increase, with generation projected to hit a record high, according to Birol. "I also see that in some countries, there is an interest in coal ... We will see if it is a sustainable trend or it is limited," Birol said. "These are market reactions to the crisis in the Middle East. But in addition to that, maybe even more importantly, countries are now reassessing their energy strategies, energy policies and energy partnerships." New era Birol said the global energy system at the start of the century relied on two dominant trade corridors: one transporting energy from Western Siberia to Europe, and the other passing through the Strait of Hormuz, supplying oil, gas and other commodities to Asia and beyond. "Both of these arteries are disrupted," Birol said. "Europe has decided not to buy energy from Russia anymore. It is finished at least for the time being." While some traffic has resumed through the Strait of Hormuz, confidence in the trade has been undermined. "Once it is closed, people believe it can be closed again," Birol said. "After the age of coal ... we have seen the age of oil and gas, where we are today," Birol said. However, electricity demand is now growing "very, very fast, driven by data centers, artificial intelligence, electric cars and an increasing number of air conditioners in the developing world." At the UN Climate Change Conference, or COP31, in Antalya over Nov. 9-20, electrification is a key focus, Birol said, adding that the IEA had put forward a series of suggestions for the conference's main outcomes, with an electrification target ranking as its top priority. The IEA, a strategic partner of COP31, sees energy security and decarbonization as increasingly aligned goals, according to Birol. Electricity access Birol emphasized the urgent need for energy access in emerging economies, pointing out that over 700 million people worldwide still lack access to electricity, with Africa being the most severely affected. He highlighted the importance of policy choices that could increase the penetration of electrification while reducing emissions, lowering climate-related risks and enhancing energy security. With renewable energy becoming more affordable, battery costs decreasing and nuclear energy making a comeback, Birol said he was "hopeful that the electrification of this world can bring good results, including a reduction in emissions." US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item><item><link>https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/101226-philippines-warns-of-climate-finance-gap-threatening-vulnerable-nations</link><description>The Philippines has called on United Nations member states to convert climate forecasts into concrete preparedness measures ahead of COP31, warning that a widening gap between adaptation finance pledges and actual needs threatens development gains across vulnerable economies. Speaking at the Pre-COP31 plenary discussion in Nadi, Fiji, Oct. 9, Climate Change Commission Vice Chairperson and</description><title>Philippines warns of climate finance gap threatening vulnerable nations</title><pubDate>12 October 2026 08:53:25 GMT</pubDate><author><name>Angelica Garcia</name></author><content><![CDATA[ Energy Transition, Emissions October 12, 2026 Philippines warns of climate finance gap threatening vulnerable nations By Angelica Garcia Editor: Pollock Mondal Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... HIGHLIGHTS Developing nations need $310B yearly by 2035 Current adaptation funding reaches only $26B El NiÃ±o forecast persists through February 2027 The Philippines has called on United Nations member states to convert climate forecasts into concrete preparedness measures ahead of COP31, warning that a widening gap between adaptation finance pledges and actual needs threatens development gains across vulnerable economies. Speaking at the Pre-COP31 plenary discussion in Nadi, Fiji, Oct. 9, Climate Change Commission Vice Chairperson and Executive Director Robert Borje cited a World Meteorological Organization forecast that the current El NiÃ±o would intensify to very strong levels and was highly likely to persist through February 2027. "The forecast gives us a clear warning, but also a window to prepare and respond," Borje said, adding, "We must build right at first sight, so every investment reduces risk rather than locks it in." The core of Manila's intervention centered on a financing gap that risks leaving developing nations exposed to escalating climate shocks. The United Nations Environment Program estimates that developing countries will need $310â365 billion a year for adaptation by 2035, Borje said. Against that benchmark, international public adaptation finance to developing countries stood at just $26 billion in 2023 â less than one-tenth of the estimated annual need, according to the CCC. Borje acknowledged that water and wastewater systems may receive the largest sectoral share of tracked adaptation finance, but argued the overall pool remains structurally insufficient. "A large share of an inadequate pool remains inadequate," he said. He also flagged that ocean finance remains limited and poorly tracked â a concern with direct relevance to small island developing states and archipelagic nations whose food security, fisheries trade, and coastal infrastructure depend on healthy marine ecosystems. Borje pressed for climate finance that is adequate, predictable, new, additional, scaled up, and easily accessible to developing countries. Borje urged that finance flows be measured transparently, offered on fair terms, and directed to national and local institutions responsible for delivery. Technology transfer and capacity-building must also be accelerated, he said. Borje said COP31 should support nations in formulating, submitting, and implementing their Nationally Determined Contributions and National Adaptation Plans, advancing mitigation and adaptation simultaneously. Leading up to COP31 Southeast Asian nations are also pressing for simpler and more direct pathways to climate finance ahead of COP31, as the region's civil society warns that current funding flows remain critically insufficient to meet the scale of climate impacts already being felt across the region. During the ASEAN Energy Business Forum at the Philippine International Convention Center in Pasay City on Oct. 8, the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities said the challenge is not simply to mobilize more climate finance but to ensure that support reaches countries, communities, and interventions that need it most â and in time. "Building on the precedent set last year, the ASEAN joint statement on COP31 should unequivocally call for stronger climate finance delivery that encompasses all forms of sources â domestic and international, public and private â while ensuring that these efforts are grounded in transparency and accountability," ICSC Executive Director Angelo dela Cruz said. Dela Cruz also called for the development of an ASEAN-led resource mobilization mechanism to de-risk climate action, including nature-based solutions and climate adaptation projects, which he said are known to be effective yet struggle to attract financing. A regional coordinating mechanism, he said, could also serve as a platform for ASEAN member states to exchange best practices and build shared knowledge on accessing climate finance, particularly around project proposal development and pipelining. US-Israeli Conflict with Iran Essential Energy Intelligence for today's uncertainty. See What Matters > ]]></content></item></channel></rss>