A post-pandemic economic recovery would see global CO2 emissions return to 2018 levels by 2022, according to Platts Analytics Scenario Planning Service, whose data and forecasts are visualized here.
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After 2022, growth in CO2 emissions essentially flattens to 0.2% a year before peaking in 2032. By 2040 emissions remain around 3 Gt above 2020 levels, as abatement efforts are offset by the continued use of coal for power generation in Asia's growth economies.
The largest incremental emissions reductions will be realized in power sector decarbonization and alternative transport fuels in the OECD.
Related story: Global carbon emissions from energy to plateau this decade: S&P Global Platts Analytics
The seven countries and regions shown account for 77% of global carbon emissions from energy use. Of these emissions, 48% derive from coal, 32% from oil and 20% from gas use, based on 2019 data. (Toggle countries to isolate or combine them in the visual)