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Platts Analytics expects USDA to lift 2019-20 year-end estimate for corn stocks

New Delhi — S&P Global Platts Analytics forecasts a rise in the US Department of Agriculture's estimate for US corn stocks at the end of the 2019-20 marketing year (September-August) in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand estimates report due Thursday.

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Corn stocks at the end of the marketing year are expected at 2.183 billion bushels (55.45 million mt), higher than the USDA's March forecast of 1.892 billion bushels, Platts Analytics said in its WASDE preview report Wednesday.

Platts Analytics expects corn used for ethanol in the US to be at 4.835 billion bushels in the marketing year, lower than the USDA's previous forecast of 5.425 billion bushels estimated in March.

"One of the main demand sectors for corn, ethanol, is under attack from some of the lowest gasoline demand numbers in the modern era given global movement restrictions," the Platts Analytics report said.

Meanwhile, corn exports from the US in 2019-20 are estimated at 1.8 billion bushels, higher than the USDA's March forecast of 1.725 billion bushels, due to the lower prices at present, the preview report said.

"Without DDGs, Platts Analytics makes a ballpark estimate of 5.725 billion [bushels] in feed and residual, up 200 million from March," the report said.

The report added there could be some possible tweaks to South America's corn estimates.

"In our opinion, the April WASDE will be all about the corn balance sheet given gasoline demand and its devastating impact on the ethanol business," the Platts Analytics report added.