Warnock Senate win could ease paths for Biden energy efforts, nominees

Raphael Warnock's US Senate runoff victory in Georgia gives Democrats a slightly wider margin to move forward the Biden administration energy policy, especially the advancement of agency nominees. The extra vote for Democrats next year also somewhat softens the powerful grip on energy matters in the Senate held by West Virginia's Joe Manchin.

The Democrats' new 51-49 majority in the Senate at the new year will diminish Republicans' ability to block President Joe Biden's nominees to agencies and courts, making that process "a lot quicker, swifter and easier," said Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said during a Dec. 7 press briefing.

Democrats will also have numeric majorities in Senate committees that are now evenly divided, and bigger budgets there as well, increasing the chance of their legislation reaching the Senate floor.

Moderate and conservative Democrats such as Manchin also will not have as much ability to inhibit nominees or block bills, although Manchin will remain an important gatekeeper as likely chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.

Manchin forced Democrats to scale back the scope of the Inflation Reduction Act, which contains billions in climate and energy spending.

"A single Democratic senator won't be able to unilaterally halt progress on legislation" said Alexander McDonough, who served as a senior policy advisor on energy and environment issues for former Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid.

But Democrats' ability to advance their preferred policies also has a significant check in the House, where Republicans will take control in January with a narrow majority.

Slim margins

Former FERC Chairman and long-time Senate aide Neil Chatterjee emphasized the Democrats still will be operating with slim margins.

"With a Republican House and several Democrat Senators in cycle in conservative states -- anything that gets done on energy or environment policy will have to be narrow and bipartisan," Chatterjee said in an email Dec. 7. "The Georgia result doesn't change that dynamic."

The extra vote may afford Democrats "some more running room to reach effective consensus" in areas of energy policy with Republican support, said Scott Segal of Bracewell's Policy Resolution Group. He said there was Republican backing for some issues that made it into the Inflation Reduction Act, such as energy efficiency, carbon capture, energy storage and other discrete matters.

The gain of one vote means Democrats no longer must engage in a power-sharing agreement with Republicans in the Senate, making it easier to advance nominations without Republican support.

The additional vote could also lower, but not eliminate, hurdles to White House nominees to both federal agencies and the federal bench, said Christi Tezak of ClearView Energy Partners in an email Dec. 7.

FERC outlook

In the Senate energy committee, Manchin's positions have at times aligned more closely with Republicans, for instance, in his scrutiny earlier in the year of FERC Chairman Richard Glick's approach to natural gas project permitting.

Manchin this fall held up action on Glick's renomination, saying he was not comfortable holding a hearing, angered by Biden's comments that seemed to favor sweeping coal plant closures. But with 51 votes, there is at least some possibility that Senate leadership could move nominees out of committee onto the floor, if Manchin's support is lacking.

Tezak suggested Warnock's Dec. 6 win and the easier confirmation outlook likely ensures Glick and other stranded nominees -- such as Joseph Goffman, tapped to be assistant administrator for air and radiation at the US Environmental Protection Agency -- don't move during the lame duck session.

With greener nominees having better prospects in 2023, "we view a 51-49 Senate and a greener leaning member of FERC as posing additional hurdles to natural gas infrastructure projects, and likely leading to a more constructive environment for electric transmission and low-carbon generation," she said.

Congressional Review Act

A larger Senate majority will also allow Democrats to better deflect bills from a Republican-controlled US House of Representatives next year, including Congressional Review Act resolutions to overturn recent regulations from the Biden administration. Such resolutions only need a simple majority to pass the Senate, making every Democratic vote crucial.

"[Fifty-one] votes might be pivotal to stopping House resolutions under the Congressional Review Act to nullify Biden's climate and energy rules," McDonough said.

Schumer also suggested Senate Democrats will be able use bolstered oversight powers to tackle "corporate corruption and inequities and other problems throughout the country."