09 Feb 2021 | 15:28 UTC — London

NWE gas demand during Storm Darcy to top 'Beast from the East'

Highlights

Dutch, German demand already above Beast: Platts Analytics

UK demand to test 2010's all-time record: National Grid data

Regionality, adequate supply make Darcy different to Beast

London — As Storm Darcy ravaged Northwest Europe with bitterly cold weather, natural gas demand in the region's hubs was closing in on all-time records Feb. 10, even surpassing requirements during 2018's 'Beast from the East.'

In the Netherlands, aggregate demand had already overshadowed that stimulated by the Beast, with an allocation of 209 million cu m for Feb. 8 eclipsing the 198 million cu m level reached on March 1, 2018, data from S&P Global Platts Analytics showed.

While German allocation data was not yet available, forecast demand for gas days between Feb. 8-10 had all overtaken the 510 million cu m threshold set on Feb. 28, 2018, while Platts Analytics forecast for Feb. 10 currently stands at a behemoth 560 million cu m of consumption, which is set to be the highest on record if achieved, sources said.

To manage the high levels of demand, withdrawals from German gas storage reservoirs had picked up, averaging 120 million cu m/d for the Feb. 1-8 gas days, up 88% on an annual basis, data from Platts Analytics showed.

Moreover, imports from France had also risen, averaging 34 million cu m/d for the first eight days of February compared with 7 million cu m/d in Feb. 1-8, 2020, as well as an annual drop in exports to Switzerland to aid balancing the system.

Demand in Belgium and the Netherlands was also forecast to be the highest on record on Feb. 10 at 111 million cu m/d and 220 million cu m/d respectively, Platts Analytics data showed.

The UK, while just outside of the strongest grip of Storm Darcy, was still experiencing sub-zero temperatures, and was also poised to set new domestic records for gas consumption.

Data from network operator National Grid showed the gas day Feb. 10 forecast to be 425 million cu m, 8 million cu m higher than peak daily demand during the Beast, and just shy of the all-time record of 433 million cu m set in December 2010.

According to the UK Met Office, the worst weather of the storm in Germany is set to fall on Feb. 9, with Berlin day-night temperatures ranging between minus 7-17 degrees Celsius. Daytime conditions look set to range between minus 1-6 C for Feb. 10-14, and minus 9-11 at night.

Temperatures in Amsterdam will persist below freezing until Feb. 13, with daytime conditions ranging between minus 1-3 degrees Celsius and night-time temperatures between minus 6-10 C.

In Brussels, night-time conditions are forecast at minus 12 C for Feb. 9-10, while in London and Edinburgh they will slump to minus 4 and minus 6 C respectively on Feb. 10.

While the 'Beast from the East' triggered record high gas spot prices in Europe, Storm Darcy appears to be only affecting Northern Europe while Central and Southern Europe experience temperatures more in line with seasonal norms.

Another key difference is the more favorable supply picture this time around, with higher LNG imports than in Feb. 2018, and storage inventory 20 percentage points higher than when the Beast struck.

According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, pan-European gas storage held 50.4 billion cu m of reserves on Feb. 7, or 48% of total capacity.