No sign of European winter switch to colder-than-usual temperatures: Weather Company

London — All of Europe is likely to see above-normal temperatures in the period February-April, according to the latest forecasts from the Weather Company, which will likely add to the bearish sentiment for European gas and power markets.

The closely watched guidance from the Weather Company (formerly WSI) published late Friday is the continuation of a "persistent warm, westerly pattern into the heart of spring."

The European winter to date has been unseasonably warm, with temperatures regularly coming in well above the norms for the time of year.

"The mild winter pattern that we've seen for the last six years has continued through the first half of the winter," Weather Company chief meteorologist Todd Crawford said.

"Unless there is a significant change, the back half of winter may follow suit," Crawford said.

The company's forecasts for February, March and April show temperatures across all of Europe at 0.5-3 degrees above seasonal normal.

Gas storage levels

Gas storage sites across Europe were filled to almost 100% capacity ahead of the winter season that started in October due to concerns over possible disruption to Russian gas flows via Ukraine as the transit deal between the two expired.

The two sides signed a new five-year deal in late December, allaying fears of a supply crisis.

Gas stocks in the EU are still 75% full, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, with just two months until the end of the withdrawal season.

January, the Weather Company said, will mark the 20th straight winter month with a positive North Atlantic Oscillation, which is the driver for the warm westerly pattern observed again this winter.

The Weather Company also gave its first forecast for late spring and early summer (May-June), which suggests a "cool-north, warm-south pattern."

"The precipitation forecasts are consistently wet across northern Europe and dry across southern Europe," it said.