Electric Power, Natural Gas, Energy Transition, Renewables
January 22, 2025
Record-setting storm cuts power in southern US, but loads, energy prices mixed
By Markham Watson and Karen Rivera
HIGHLIGHTS
Skiing, hockey in New Orleans
TVA sets peakload record
Into Southern, GTC prices ease but still high
Almost 150,000 electricity customers across the southern US remained offline early Jan. 22 after a winter storm dumped record levels of snow and ice across the region, cutting demand in some areas but setting or nearing peakload records in others, affecting energy prices.
As of about 9 am CT Jan. 22, PowerOutage.US showed more than 95,000 customers offline in the Southeast and another 50,756 offline in the South, mainly in Louisiana and Texas. But as of about 12:30 pm CT, the Southeast number had fallen to about 72,000, dominated by 39,334 in Georgia and 31,348 in Florida. Also around 12:30 pm CT, the South numbers had fallen to 20,720, led by 11,712 in Texas and 6,238 in Louisiana.
The Weather Channel reported New Orleans getting eight inches of snow Jan. 21, bringing snow skiers to Bourbon Street and ice hockey to Canal Street. This was the highest snowfall recorded in modern history and the city's largest total in over a century. Chalmette, Louisiana, located north of New Orleans, recorded 11.5 inches.
The Weather Channel also reported Florida likely broke its state snowfall record, with 8.8 inches just north of Pensacola.
In Texas, Downtown Houston logged 3-4 inches of snow, which may break the city's record of 3 inches, which has stood since Jan. 22, 1940, according to The Washington Post.
CustomWeather forecast the Southeast's population-weighted average temperature on Jan. 22 to be 32.6 degrees Fahrenheit Jan. 22, which is 12 degrees, or almost 27% below the long-term average for that date.
TVA prices in triple digits
The Tennessee Valley Authority on Jan. 22 reported that preliminary data showed the region set a record of 35.3 GW at 8 am Jan. 22, exceeding the 34.6 GW set Jan. 17, 2024.
Into TVA day-ahead peak was priced at $363.5/MWh by Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, for Jan. 22 delivery, down from its Jan. 21 delivery price of $414/MWh but more than 190% from last year levels at the same time, when it priced at $122.25/MWh.
Meanwhile, its off-peak price for Jan. 23 delivery was assessed $43.25 higher on the day to $463.25/MWh, reaching its highest assessed price since Platts began assessing it Jan. 2, 2002.
But in the North American Electric Reliability Corporation's SERC Region, formerly known as the Southeast Electric Reliability Council, the US Energy Information Administration showed hourly peakload averaging barely 45.9 GW Jan. 22, down 5.4 GW or 10.4% from Jan. 15's average peakload of almost 51.3 GW.
The slight decrease in power burn had a big impact on spot natural gas prices, which nevertheless remained high. Transco Zone 5 South dropped by $8.44 to about $15.54/MMBtu, which were less than half the $32.015/MMBtu assessed by Platts for the long holiday weekend.
Prices at Henry Hub dwindled 48 cents to price about $3.90/MMBtu for next-day flows on the Intercontinental Exchange.
The easing of natural gas prices weakened Southeast power prices, which also remained elevated.
For example, Into Southern day-ahead off-peak saw ICE trading activity at $350/MWh, still elevated but trading below its off-peak record of $566.67/MWh, set Jan. 21 for Jan. 22 delivery.
Into GTC followed the trend, with Jan. 22 on-peak delivery prices assessed at $460/MWh and off-peak priced at $610/MWh, and ICE trading indicating Jan. 23 delivery off-peak prices at $375/MWh.
In contrast with its northern neighbor, NERC's Florida Reliability Coordinating Council load peaked at 40.9 GW on Jan. 22, up 9.2 GW, or almost 29%, from it's Jan 15 peak of 31.7 GW, US EIA data shows.
Florida day-ahead peak prices for Jan. 22 delivery were priced by Platts at $463.75/MWh and its off-peak at $596/MWh, with no ICE trading for Jan. 23 delivery.
ERCOT load nears record
Elsewhere, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas forecast loads to peak at almost 78 GW Jan. 22, approaching its January record of 78.1 GW set Jan. 16, 2024, as power outages have diminished.
However, strong renewable output, lighter power burns and weaker natural gas prices have pushed power prices sharply lower.
For example, Commodity Insights estimated ERCOT's power burn to be 6.3 Bcf on Jan. 22, down from 7.5 Bcf/day Jan. 20-21.
ERCOT North Hub day-ahead on-peak power traded on ICE Jan. 22 with a price around $30/MWh for Jan. 23 delivery, down from ERCOT's own $37.59/MWh for Jan. 22 delivery and down sharply from the $80.80 on-peak price for Jan. 21 delivery.