Russia's Lukoil plans to increase liquids output to 1.67 mil b/d in 2022: CEO

Lukoil, Russia's second-largest crude oil producer, expects to raise production of liquid hydrocarbons to 83 million mt, or an average 1.67 million b/d, next year, CEO Vagit Alekperov said Nov. 15.

Lukoil's oil production was cut by about 310,000 b/d, or 19%, when the OPEC+ agreement entered into force in May 2020, compared to the pre-crisis levels of Q1 2020.

"It is about 83 million mt of liquid hydrocarbons while OPEC+ restrictions are still in force," Alekperov told reporters on the sidelines of the ADIPEC conference in Abu Dhabi.

Lukoil's output of liquid hydrocarbons, excluding the West Qurna 2 project in Iraq, totaled 1.598 million b/d in 2020, down 10.5% on pre-pandemic levels of 1.785 million b/d in 2019.

The company managed to recover production by 210,000 b/d on May 2020 levels in the third quarter.

Lukoil's spare production capacity currently stands at about 30,000 b/d, Alekperov said. "We hope that if production volumes grow at this rate, we will be fully utilizing our production capacity of oil both in Russia and abroad at the end of January-February."

Lukoil ruled out any impact on its own production from potential sanctions on Russia's Aeroflot carrier over the migrant crisis on the Belarus/EU border.

"No, production in Russia can be affected by deficit of investments. Due to the pandemic we have a drop in investments in new projects. That's the main risk that can hamper our plans to increase production," Alekperov said.

Price expectations

Lukoil was happy with current conditions of the OPEC+ deal, which will bring an additional 400,000 b/d to the market every month, according to Alekperov.

"We believe it supports the market. The price is stable. It is not growing. This is the volume that can satisfy the market demand," he said.

Lukoil's budget for next year sees oil at $60/b with "fluctuations expected both upwards and downwards".

"There is uncertainty due to the pandemic and just how serious restrictions will be, especially with our partners in European countries," Alekperov said, adding he doubted oil prices would go as high as $100/b in the near future.

"We are not interested in high prices and our mission and the mission of OPEC+ is to satisfy demand first and foremost. Therefore OPEC+ countries do not have a strategic objective of prices growing drastically," Alekperov said.

S&P Global Platts assessed Dated Brent at $82.65/b on Nov. 12, up 92% year on year.

International projects

Lukoil was closely monitoring progress made with Iran's nuclear talks, which paused over the summer for the Iran elections.

Alekperov reiterated that Lukoil would be happy to return to talks on its Iranian oil projects, which were at an advanced stage, once US sanctions on the Middle Eastern country are lifted.

Lukoil was in talks with Iran to develop the Ab Teymour and Mansouri oil fields, but had to put such plans on hold in late 2018 after the US pulled out of the Iranian nuclear deal and reimposed sanctions on the country's oil industry.

"We are interested in coming back to these fields. A lot of work has been done some time ago, we know these fields and their geology," he said.

At the same time, the company was not in a hurry to set up meetings with the new Iranian government.

"For now meetings are not planned, we are observing the process of settling nuclear concerns and as soon as we feel it is right, we will hold these meetings," Alekperov said.

The next round of Iran nuclear talks is set to take place Nov. 29 in Vienna.

Lukoil was also studying how to improve economics of its participation in the West Qurna 2 project in Iraq.

The company had previously considered quitting the project in the country due to the current investment climate, but Iraqi authorities refused its request to sell part of its stake.

"Economics of the project is not in line with the investor expectations, we continue our negotiations and to develop our estimates to improve separate specific elements of our suggestions," Alekperov said.

The drilling campaign at Mishrif and Yamama formations started in 2019 and was set to bring the project's production to 480,000 b/d in 2020.

However, in addition to Iraq 's involvement in the OPEC+ deal and ongoing security concerns, the field's expected plateau was repeatedly revised down to 1.2 million b/d from 1.8 million b/d, and then further to 800,000 b/d.

"We hope our suggestions will further incentivize development of Yamama formation," Alekperov said.

Lukoil holds a 75% interest in West Qurna 2 and Iraqi state-owned North Oil Co. the remainder.