Global flight passenger demand down 91% on year in May: IATA

New York — Global flight passenger demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers or RPK's, contracted 91% on the year in May, after falling 94% in April, the International Air Transport Association said July 1.

The slight uptick in May relative to April was due to developments in domestic markets with international air travel close to zero in both April and May, according to IATA.

"A more significant uptick in demand is expected in June as many countries -- notably in Europe -- ease their lockdowns and airlines partly restore some of their seat capacity," IATA said.

"The restart period will be challenging for airlines. Some countries appear to have contained the virus but at the global level the crisis is far from over, especially in some of the key emerging markets. Indeed, while showing improvement compared with April, the level of bookings in late June is still ~80% lower than the level of a year ago. Moreover, the risk remains that the recent demand gains could be reversed if there is a second wave of infections," it added.

Air travel passengers have become more cautious about travel in recent months.

According to passenger surveys, a total of 45% of respondents said they intended to fly in the two months after the pandemic is contained, down from 64% surveyed in April. Half of respondents would not travel for six to 12 months after containment, the survey showed.

Domestic demand edging up

Domestic routes continue to be the driver of the recovery for airlines. US and Japan domestic routes continue to recovery slowly, while Russia domestic travel is growing strongly. China had been leading the way, but cancellations due to an outbreak in Beijing has interrupted the recovery there, according to IATA.

"Looking ahead, capacity planning in the near-term will be especially challenging for airlines. There are indications that passengers have changed their booking behavior amidst the COVID crisis, buying their tickets much closer to the date of departure than was the case previously. This change in the timing of ticket purchases has reduced airlines' visibility on future demand in an already highly uncertain environment," IATA said.

However, the gradual opening of borders, the creation of travel "bubbles" or "corridors" should result in the further, gradual rise in international RPKs.