Price pressure risk persists for border farmers despite EU-Ukraine trade deal changes

The European Union's revised and comprehensive free trade agreement with Ukraine took effect Oct. 29, replacing wartime autonomous measures that had allowed Ukrainian agricultural goods to enter the bloc duty-free, according to the European Commission.

The new deal provides more restricted access than the previous arrangement but still offers broader market entry than pre-war tariffs, with adjusted import quotas based on product sensitivity levels.

The European Commission has recalibrated import quotas for Ukrainian agricultural exports, setting tighter limits on highly sensitive products while maintaining greater access for low- and non-sensitive goods.

The new trade regime also includes a safeguard mechanism that can be activated if liberalized imports cause serious difficulties for either party, with EU disturbances assessed at the level of one or more member states.

Safeguards, concessions raise doubts

While EU agri-food stakeholders have welcomed the deal, they have also expressed concerns about unfair competition, market disruptions in border states, and the vague safeguard clause.

Despite the EU-wide agreement, border states Poland, Hungary and Slovakia continue to maintain bans on certain Ukrainian agri-food imports. Poland announced it will keep restrictions on wheat, corn, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds from Ukraine despite the changes in EU rules, according to the Polish agriculture ministry on Oct. 29.

EU farmers' lobby group Copa Cogeca criticized the vagueness of the safeguard clause, citing its lack of clear criteria and absence of automatic monitoring as raising serious doubts about its practical effectiveness.

Market participants view the safeguards as only partially protective, noting that while the measures are credible, they do not entirely eliminate risks to prices and supply. "Safeguards are credible but not absolute," a trade source said.

Additionally, farmers have raised concerns over concessions on certain products. "Sugar, poultry, and egg concessions are significant — manageable alone, but worrying alongside trade deals with Mercosur or India," Copa Cogeca said.

Concerns are especially strong regarding the 35,000 mt honey concession, as much of Ukrainian honey is believed to be repackaged Chinese honey. Stakeholders call for strict traceability, but no guarantees have been provided, the lobby group said.

A European Commission spokesperson acknowledged ongoing discussions, saying, "We're engaging with all parties to find solutions."

A European grain market analyst highlighted that risks of market strain remain in border states, noting that duty-free access keeps Ukrainian grain flowing, but border states face episodic farm-gate price pressure when Danube and Dnieper logistics accelerate.

The analyst added that in Q1 2025, Polish wheat prices fell 10%–15% during heavy inflows (nearly 2.5 million mt), while core EU markets were cushioned by freight and quality premiums. "New monitoring and destination clauses reduce 'transit' leakage, but stress windows persist during low Danube levels or security events."

Meanwhile, World Farmers Association board member for European Constituency, Kati Partanen, welcomed the revised EU-Ukraine trade regime, noting that "Recent ATM (autonomous trade measures) experience highlighted the need for a more structured approach to Ukrainian agricultural imports. The EU is refining its tariff-rate quotas to tackle market saturation and price instability seen under previous regimes."

EU quotas for Ukrainian exports (in mt)

Source: European Commission

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed EU 11.5% protein Romanian wheat at $233/mt CVB Oct. 30, unchanged day over day and EU corn FOB CVB at $224/mt Oct. 30, down $1/mt day over day.