Tariffs disrupt Chilean salmon, Brazilian tilapia exports to US market

The Chilean salmon industry and Brazilian tilapia producers are among the fishery sectors heavily affected by US tariffs, market participants told S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Chile, the second-largest salmon producer in the world, faced difficulties in its aquaculture industry even before its main consumer, the US, announced a 10% tariff on its products on April 2. The countries had a free trade agreement by which Chilean producers enjoyed years of no tariffs.

The 10% tariff imposed was only the baseline rate, which was imposed on nearly all countries. However, due to the product's higher unitary value, the salmon industry felt the impact of such a rate heavily.

"Salmon is a high-cost protein, and a 10% increase has a big impact on consumers," Arturo Clement, president of the country's salmon association, SalmonChile, told the Latin America Seafood Show in São Paulo on Oct. 22.

Clement estimates the tariffs increased retail prices by about $1/kg, which is enough to make consumers seek cheaper protein options.

The economic instability in the region has further complicated the situation, making it difficult for companies to pass on such costs to consumers.

"We had to totally reframe our sales strategy," a source at a large salmon supplier said.

Rising supply has compounded the challenges for Chilean salmon producers.

After experiencing its lowest annual harvest since 2019 in 2024, Chile's production of Atlantic salmon through August 2025 has shown a recovery, reaching 498,588 metric tons, which is an 9.5% increase compared to the same period last year, S&P Global Commodity Insights analyst Max Bouratoglou said in a report.

Producers have been trying to develop customers in Asia and other regions to compensate for the tariff effect in the US. Another focus was on its second-largest consumer, Brazil, which imported 11,472 mt of Chilean salmon in September, an increase of 24% from August and 18% year over year, according to the Brazilian foreign trade secretariat.

But diverting volumes also involves complex processing logistics. For instance, Brazilian importers prefer whole salmon, as all parts of the animal are used in cooking preparation by buyers, many of whom are Japanese cuisine restaurants spread across the country. The US prefers to import fresh fillets, which demand delicate and fast logistics.

Canceled contracts, suspended shipments

Tariffs also affected another key fish product consumed in the US: tilapia, an affordable and versatile protein option. Tariffs on China, the largest supplier of tilapia, have been volatile, currently set at 30% with a possible 100% tariff being set by Nov. 1 if no trade deal is reached. Brazilian tilapia producers had been trying to fill the gap left by China until August, when the US imposed a 50% tariff on imports from the country.

Bouratoglou estimates the US imported 39,329 mt of frozen whole tilapia from January to September, up 3.1% year over year. August and September imports were both sharply lower than 2024 levels. He estimates the US imported 79,361 mt of frozen tilapia fillets in January to September, with September seeing a nearly 20% decline.

"We were shocked by the tariffs; it was totally unexpected," Jairo Gund, executive director at Brazilian fisheries association Abipesca, told Platts.

The tariffs have resulted in canceled contracts and suspended shipments, Gund said. The excess volume has been diverted to the Brazilian domestic market, further pressuring local prices.

While tariffs have reduced exports, they have not entirely closed the US market for Brazilian producers, who continue to export and pass on the costs to US consumers.

Tariffs also induced producers to reduce seeding and adjust output to the lower demand. However, this movement has increased the weight of fixed costs, resulting in increased prices for both local and foreign consumers.

"Our main suppliers continue to export to a good extent; shipments were not completely stopped," Jonathan Marcarini, purchase manager at food processor Delly's, told Platts. "US buyers have few other options, as China is out of the game."

Tariffs are expected to continue to affect the seafood market, with lingering effects on prices and volumes.

"Fresh salmon fillet prices are expected to remain below the five-year monthly average for the remainder of 2025," Bouratoglou said in the Commodity Insights report, adding that prices could align with the average in 2026.

Platts is a part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.