US soybean 2020-21 output falls on September estimates

New Delhi — The US Department of Agriculture forecast for US soybean production for 2020-21 marketing year, which runs from September to August, fell 45 million bushels to 4.268 billion bushels on lower harvested area, according to World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate report, released Oct. 9.

Harvested area is down 0.7 million acres to 82.3 million acres, with reductions for Kansas, North Dakota, and South Dakota, the USDA said.

The soybean yield is projected at 51.9 bu/acre, unchanged from September's forecast, the report said.

Lower acreage and production projections by the USDA have boosted the US soybeans futures prices.

The Chicago Board of Trade November soybean futures contract was trading at $10.71/bushel at 11:15 Central time Oct. 9, up more than 21 cents/bushel than the previous close, as prices got supported on WASDE reports of tight supply and reduced ending stocks.

Harvested area is forecast at 82.3 million acres, down 0.7 million acres from the September projection, the USDA said.

US soybean exports were estimated at 2.200 billion bushels, up 75 million bushels on previous projection, on record early-season sales, the USDA said.

US soybean export inspections are at 6.6 million mt as of the week ending Oct. 1, compared with 4.2 million mt a year ago, with more than half of the shipments destined for China, the USDA report said Oct. 5.

Because of increased global import demand from China, US soybeans exports are expected to rise, the USDA said in September.

Average market estimates for US soybeans ending stocks in 2020-21 were at 369 million bushels.

S&P Global Platts Analytics forecast the 2020-21 US soybean acreage at 83.8 million acres, yield at 51.3 bushels/harvested acre, soybean production at 4.258 billion bushels, soy exports at 2.200 billion bushels, and ending stocks at 321 million bushels.

The 2020-21 US season-average soybean price was projected at $9.80/bu, up 55 cents on September estimates, the USDA said. The soybean meal price is projected at $335/st, up $20 from last month, and the soybean oil price forecast is up 0.5 cent on previous estimates to 32.5 cents/lb.

Global

The 2020-21 foreign soybean supply and demand forecasts include lower beginning stocks, higher crush, and lower ending stocks, USDA said.

Beginning stocks are lowered mainly on higher 2019-20 crush for China that is partly offset by lower exports and higher stocks for Brazil, it added.

Soybean imports, crush, and meal consumption in 2020-21 are higher for China, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Vietnam, aligning with prior-year increases in domestic meal use, the USDA said. Argentina's exports fell 0.5 million mt on stronger competition from the US, it added.

With lower supplies in the US and higher foreign use, global ending stocks have been reduced by 4.9 million mt to 88.7 million, the report said.

US Soybeans 2020-21 Projections

Source: S&P Global Platts, USDA