BRAZIL CORN WATCH: Dry weather may stress crops in some regions this week

Some of the key corn-growing states in Brazil are likely to see dry weather in the coming days, stressing the crop growth, according to the latest weather forecasts.

"Scattered showers are possible in northern Brazil later this week but will only slightly ease dryness. Mostly dry weather next week will increase dryness again," space technology provider Maxar said in its daily weather report on April 11.

Dryness is widespread across northern and central portions of the safrinha corn belt, stressing crop growth, Maxar said.

In Minas Gerais, producers are worried about the dry weather as there are municipalities that have not received any significant rainfall for 40 days, the national agricultural agency Conab said in a report.

In the Midwest region, rainfall ranging from 50 to 100 mm is likely in northern Mato Grosso and Goias, as well as southern Mato Grosso do Sul during April 11-18. In other areas, rainfall may not exceed 40 mm, Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) said.

Moreover, the rainfall forecast for April-June also paints a slightly negative picture for the safrinha crop.

Rainfall in the southern region is likely to be below normal in practically the entire region due to La Nina, INMET said.

La Nina refers to the large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation, namely winds, pressure, and rainfall.

Generally, Southeast Asia, South Africa, India, and Australia receive above-normal rainfall in a La Nina event, and drier weather is seen in Argentina, Europe, Brazil, and the southern US.

The forecast for April-June also indicates precipitation to be close to or slightly below normal for the Midwest region, INMET said.

The second-corn planting in Brazil is almost over in the country and about 50.9% of the crops in the area surveyed are in the vegetative development stage as of April 9, according to Conab data.

The first-corn crop in Brazil is planted in September-December and harvested in February-May, while the second crop is planted in February-March and harvested in June-July.

The weather conditions in Brazil have been largely favorable so far for the second-corn crop.

The country is expected to harvest a record 115.6 million of corn in MY 2021-22, including the first-corn output, according to Conab.

Brazil's 2021-22 corn crop will be marketed from February 2022 to January 2023.

Brazil is usually the second-largest exporter of corn following the US.

Corn buyers are hoping for a bumper harvest in the country this season amid heightened supply risk in the Black Sea region and high prices.